有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 6 月 4 日收盘，沪铜主力 07 合约上涨 0.53%至 78200 元/吨。节 日期间美关税影响再起，金融市场再现动荡，短期将对铜价增添不利的 情绪影响。上游进口铜精矿市场整体交投氛围清淡，现货市场 TC 价格持 稳-43 左右，冶炼厂对加工费的接受度已达极限，后续继续下行阻力较 大。卡库拉矿山地震虽未影响近期发运，但节后若持续停产减少发运或 带来供应冲击。下游节前备货需求较为一般，新增订单有限，但炼厂发 货较少，节前库存再度表现下降，但去库幅度较小。节后，考虑节假期 间市场到货量预计有所增加，下游消费逐渐由旺转淡，近月高 BACK 月 差结构以及关税不利情绪影响再起，铜价上行空间将受到限制。但基于 目前库存仍维持低位，供应端扰动仍存，下跌空间同样有限。沪铜近期 或仍维持震荡格局。关注近月合约持仓状况。 ◆ 铝： 截至 6 月 4 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约上涨 0.68%至 20075 元/吨。几 内亚 AXIS 矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，后续关注是否有复产 可能。几内亚矿端扰动尚未对当下铝土矿供应宽松的局面造成直接冲击， 其影响要等到 7 月份才能体现 ...

Core Insights - The palm oil production forecasts for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand remain unchanged, indicating stability in output levels [1] - Weather conditions and trade policy changes are identified as critical factors influencing market supply and demand, as well as future price trends [1] Group 1 - The palm oil production estimates for the three major producing countries are stable, suggesting no immediate changes in supply dynamics [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of external factors such as weather and trade policies in shaping the palm oil market [1]

| | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/6/2 | 美元/桶 | 62.52 | 61.84 | 1.10% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/6/2 | 美元/桶 | 64.63 | 64.90 | -0.42% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/30 | 美元/吨 | 0.00 | 569.50 | -100.00% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/5/30 | | 美元/吨 | 708.50 | 716.50 | -1.12% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/30 | 美元/吨 | 841.33 | 852.17 | -1.27% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/5/30 | 元/吨 | 4700.00 | 48 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，因市场评估特朗普政府与美国贸易法院裁决之间的较量，伦敦 | | 研究员：王伟 | 金先跌后涨，盘中一度失守 3250 美元关口，随后持续上涨超 80 美元，最终收涨 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 0.95%，报 3317.8 美元/盎司。伦敦银收涨 1%，报 33.3 美元/盎司。受外盘驱动，沪金 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 主力合约收涨 0.96%，报 773.78 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.28%，报 8235 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数先涨后跌，盘中冲上 100 大关，随后持续回吐日内全部涨幅并转 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 跌，最终收跌 0.6%，报 99.28。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and the weak expectation may not have changed substantially. The price of steel has broken through the recent trading range downward and is expected to continue the downward trend. For iron ore, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the iron ore price may break through downward under the influence of the falling steel price [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Thread and Hot Roll - **Market Situation**: Policy-side benefits have basically been realized, and the easing of Sino-US trade tensions is also reflected in the price. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower-tier cities is still bottoming out. The new construction area has dropped significantly, and the completed and under-construction areas still show large year-on-year declines. The output has decreased, factory and social inventories have continued to decline, and the apparent demand has slightly increased month-on-month. However, the peak season of demand has passed, and demand will weaken further with the arrival of the rainy season and high temperatures. The rumor of production restrictions has limited impact on the market, and steel enterprises are less motivated to cut production actively [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions [2] - **Related Data**: Include various data such as spot and futures prices, basis and spreads, steel billet and scrap prices, steel mill production and profitability, output, inventory, spot market transactions, and futures warehouse receipts [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the iron ore output is expected to decline further. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is relatively high, which exerts obvious pressure on the futures price [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [4] - **Related Data**: Include various data such as spot and futures prices, basis and futures month-to-month spreads, variety spreads, overseas shipments, shipping costs and exchange rates, iron ore arrivals and port clearance volumes, and inventory [4] 3. Industry News - As of May 29, 7 steel mills in Shandong have initially confirmed their annual production targets, with a total output of 55.33 million tons, a decrease of about 3.5 million tons compared to the same period last year. The planned crude steel output of each steel mill in 2025 has decreased to varying degrees, with a decline of about 4% - 10% [6] - As of the week of May 29, the output and factory inventory of rebar have decreased, social inventory has decreased for the twelfth consecutive week, and apparent demand has increased. Specifically, rebar output was 2.2551 million tons, a decrease of 59,700 tons or 2.58% from the previous week; factory inventory was 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons or 0.69% from the previous week; social inventory was 3.9459 million tons, a decrease of 218,700 tons or 5.25% from the previous week; apparent demand was 2.4868 million tons, an increase of 15,500 tons or 0.63% from the previous week [6] - The average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was -39 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi-primary coke was -18 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi-primary coke was 13 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia secondary coke was -87 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi-primary coke was 22 yuan/ton [6] - As of the week of May 29, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.662 million weight boxes, a week-on-week decrease of 107,000 weight boxes or 0.16%, but still a year-on-year increase of 14.06%. The inventory days were 30.4 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous period. The total inventory level of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6243 million tons, a decrease of 52,500 tons or 3.13% from the previous week, and an increase of 22,000 tons or 1.37% from Monday. The short-term inventory reduction of soda ash plants was relatively slow, and the total inventory was at a relatively high level in the same period of history [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern before the Dragon Boat Festival, with fundamental support weakened but still present [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to factors such as the decline of PV installation rush and the arrival of the off - season [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to have limited downside due to cost support but may show a weak and volatile trend in the medium - to - long - term due to supply surplus [3][5]. - Tin prices are expected to have increased price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [6]. Summary by Metal Copper - As of May 29, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract rose 0.1% to 78130 yuan/ton. Mine - end disruptions continue, and the supply shortage pressure is difficult to change. Consumption in May weakened compared to April but was better than the same period. Low - level inventory supports the premium. The price is expected to be volatile before the festival [1]. - Domestic spot copper prices fell slightly, and the overall trading was quiet [7]. - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2696 tons to 32165 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 152375 tons [15]. Aluminum - As of May 29, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 0.25% to 20200 yuan/ton. The revocation of mining licenses in Guinea has escalated. Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities are changing, and the downstream开工率 is weakening. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [2]. - The spot market transaction was stable, but the overall trading was not active [8]. - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1723 tons to 51819 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2250 tons to 375075 tons [15]. Nickel - As of May 29, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract fell 0.63% to 120480 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market is tight, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The downstream demand is average. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][5]. - The spot price of nickel decreased. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 nickel price was 120700 - 123000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121850 yuan/ton, down 1400 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 174 tons to 22170 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 720 tons to 200142 tons [15]. Tin - As of May 29, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract fell 1.48% to 257870 yuan/ton. Supply has recovered, and the price is volatile. The production and import of tin have changed, and the inventory is at a medium level. The price fluctuation is expected to increase [6]. - The spot price of tin decreased. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 tin price was 257400 - 260400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 258900 yuan/ton, down 5700 yuan from the previous day [13]. - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 76 tons to 7908 tons, and LME tin inventory remained unchanged at 2680 tons [15]. Other Metals Zinc - The spot zinc market price decreased, and the trading was light. The import of goods made the supply more abundant, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking was basically completed [10]. - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 99 tons to 1675 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 2075 tons to 141375 tons [15]. Lead - The spot lead price increased slightly. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 lead price was 16660 - 16760 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16710 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 246 tons to 37252 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2500 tons to 288550 tons [15].

期货热点追踪 马棕油期货五连涨，出口需求旺盛，看涨情绪能否持续？市场预期供需如何变化？ 相关链接 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 29 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： | 区 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and weak expectations may not have changed substantially. For steel products, it is recommended to short and conduct short - term trading, with an exit strategy if the price rebounds into the recent trading range. For iron ore, if a production - restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress demand, and the current port inventory decline is slowing down, exerting pressure on futures prices [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory I. Threaded Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: Policy - side positives have basically been realized, and the easing of Sino - US trade tensions is reflected in prices. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. New construction area has dropped significantly, and the year - on - year decline in completed and under - construction areas remains large. Last week, steel production increased, factory inventory rose, social inventory continued to decline, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined. Rumors of production restrictions had limited impact on the market. Steel enterprises believe that the industry needs to cut production, but lack the motivation to do so voluntarily [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The price has broken through the recent trading range downward [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short and conduct short - term trading. If the price rebounds into the recent trading range, close the short position in time [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Threaded bar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have declined. For example, the threaded bar futures contract closed at 3004 yuan/ton, down 2.12% from last week; the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3138 yuan/ton, down 2.15% from last week [3] - **Production and Inventory**: 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate was 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points from last week; daily average pig iron output was 243.6 million tons, down 0.48% from last week. National building material steel mills' threaded bar production was 231.48 million tons, up 2.19% from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 305.68 million tons, down 2.02% from last week. Five major steel products' social inventory was 960.56 million tons, down 3.33% from last week; factory inventory was 437.98 million tons, up 0.23% from last week [3] II. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable. Last week, the pig iron output of 247 steel mills exceeded 2.436 billion tons, with a larger decline rate compared to the previous period. If a production - restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress iron ore demand. As the downstream consumption peak has ended and the apparent demand for steel has declined, it is expected that pig iron production will further decline in the near future. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The current port inventory decline is slowing down, and the proportion of traded ore inventory is relatively high, exerting pressure on futures prices [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has dropped significantly but is still within the recent trading range [4] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron ore spot and futures prices have declined. For example, the DCE iron ore futures contract settled at 706.5 yuan/dry ton, down 2.21% from last week; the SGX iron ore contract settled at 97.07 US dollars/dry ton, down 4.07% from last week [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1.7711 billion tons, up 7.41% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 725.6 million tons, down 3.40% from last week. The total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.0588 billion tons, up 0.09% from last week; the average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 343.19 million tons, up 1.06% from last week. Port inventory was 13.98783 billion tons, down 1.26% from last week [4] III. Industry News - Coking enterprises decided to avoid blind production increases, control production to stabilize coke prices, and appropriately reduce coal inventory. Steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin initiated a second round of coke price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton [6] - The total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.3441 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 637,000 tons; at 45 ports, it was 2.1513 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 million tons; at six northern ports, it was 1.0588 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 1 million tons [6] - The global iron ore shipment volume was 3.1887 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.591 billion tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2.7292 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 231,000 tons. Australia's shipment volume was 1.9708 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.43 billion tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1.7425 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.635 billion tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 758.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 million tons [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals still support copper prices, and Shanghai copper is expected to maintain a volatile pattern before the holiday [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as inventory changes and export incentives [2]. - Nickel is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - to - long term due to supply surplus, although cost support limits the downside [3][4]. - Tin prices are expected to have greater volatility, and range trading is recommended, with attention to supply and demand changes [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basic Metals Copper - As of May 26, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract rose 0.57% to 78,270 yuan/ton. Macro disturbances are weakening, but Sino - US trade uncertainties remain. Mine - end disruptions continue, and the cost pressure of smelters limits price decline. Consumption in May weakened compared to April but is better than the same period. Social inventory is at a low level, and there may be some restocking sentiment before the Dragon Boat Festival [1]. Aluminum - As of May 26, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.05% to 20,155 yuan/ton. The revocation of mining licenses in Guinea has escalated. Alumina operating capacity is expected to gradually recover, and electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is increasing. The downstream开工率 is declining, but aluminum inventory has been unexpectedly depleted, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. Nickel - As of May 26, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract fell 0.08% to 122,780 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and the downstream nickel - iron industry has losses. The pure nickel is in surplus, and stainless steel demand is average. The cost of nickel is firm, but there is a long - term supply surplus, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [3][4]. Tin - As of May 26, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract fell 0.24% to 264,050 yuan/ton. Supply has recovered, and prices are oscillating. Production and imports have increased, and the semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are strong expectations of mine - end resumption. Prices are expected to fluctuate more, and range trading is recommended [5]. 2. Spot Transaction Summary Copper - Domestic spot copper prices rose. Due to limited restocking demand before the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream procurement was cautious, and only low - priced goods were purchased, with a slight increase in premiums [6]. Aluminum - The spot aluminum market was stable with a slight upward trend. Tight arrivals and inventory depletion supported sellers' price - holding sentiment, but some sellers increased shipments, and overall trading remained active [7]. Other Metals - For zinc, the spot market trading was mediocre, with high premiums due to pre - holiday restocking. For lead, the spot market trading was light. For nickel, the spot market trading was light due to the weekly effect. For tin, the spot market trading was average, and merchants were mainly in a wait - and - see mode [9][11][12][13]. 3. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, while lead futures warehouse receipts increased, and zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. LME copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, and tin inventory remained unchanged [15].