1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the PVC industry, the overall production volume is expected to increase slightly this week due to the resumption of some maintenance devices, but the planned maintenance in the later period will increase, and the production volume of the ethylene - process may be less than expected. The export volume is expected to increase slightly. The apparent demand this week is less than expected, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The profit of the chlor - alkali complex is oscillating weakly, and the export profit has improved slightly. The basis has strengthened oscillatingly, and the 5 - 9 spread can be considered for a short - position configuration. The upstream is reluctant to cut production, the middle - stream traders are cautious, and the downstream start - up is increasing but the apparent demand is poor [6][9][10]. - For the caustic soda industry, the production volume has increased slightly this week, the export volume is relatively stable, the apparent demand is better than expected, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The price of caustic soda has weakened, the profit of the chlor - alkali complex has decreased, and the export profit has strengthened. The upstream is under pressure, the middle - stream traders are cautious, and the downstream demand is poor [97][100][101]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC Market 3.1.1 Spot Market - PVC production: This week's total production is 46.75 million tons, with ethylene - process production at 12.10 million tons and calcium - carbide process production at 34.65 million tons. Next week, the total production is expected to be 45.72 million tons, with ethylene - process production at 10.17 million tons and calcium - carbide process production at 35.54 million tons. The import volume is 1.50 million tons per week on average, and the export volume is 5.00 million tons per week on average, with a slight expected increase in exports [6]. - Apparent demand: This week's apparent demand is 43.43 million tons, less than expected. Next week, it is estimated to be 45.63 million tons [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory this week is 90.74 million tons, with a decrease of 0.18 million tons. If calculated based on the current production volume and apparent demand, it is expected to decrease slightly next week [6]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of East China calcium - carbide process has strengthened from - 189 to - 169 this week, and the basis of South China calcium - carbide process has strengthened from - 39 to - 19. The 05 basis has strengthened oscillatingly [9]. - Spread: The 5 - 9 spread has decreased from - 135 to - 141, and the 5 - 9 spread can be considered for a short - position configuration [9]. 3.1.3 Industry Chain Profit - Production profit: The profit of calcium - carbide production in Shaanxi has decreased from - 254 to - 258, and in Inner Mongolia, it has decreased from 268 to 264. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has decreased from - 127 to - 235. The export profit has improved slightly, with the FOB Tianjin relative export profit increasing from 5 to 12, the theoretical export profit to India increasing from 287 to 297, and the theoretical export profit to Southeast Asia increasing from 167 to 207 [9]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Market 3.2.1 Spot Market - Caustic soda production: This week's total production is 79.48 million tons, with an increase of 0.17 million tons. Next week, it is expected to be 80.66 million tons, and the week after next, it is expected to be 81.40 million tons [97]. - Apparent demand: This week's apparent demand is 75.57 million tons, better than expected. Next week, it is estimated to be about 77.5 million tons [97]. - Inventory: The total inventory (in terms of 100% purity) this week is 26.11 million tons, with a decrease of 0.67 million tons, and it is expected to continue to decrease next week [97]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - Basis: The 32% caustic soda basis for the 01 contract has decreased from 57 to 33, and the 05 contract basis has increased from 123 to 140. The 5 - 9 spread is recommended to be on the sidelines [100]. 3.2.3 Industry Chain Profit - Production profit: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has decreased from - 235 to - 276, and the export profit has strengthened [100].

（3）国内豆粕供需面：因大豆到厂延迟以及停机检修，近期油厂会有大范围的停机，豆粕 供应可能偏紧，预期后期南美大豆集中上市或将转为宽松。终端养殖需求一般，叠加下游 饲料企业高库存高头寸，主要以滚动补库为主。油厂豆粕库存维持中性。 参考观点：豆粕短线或区间震荡。 1、现货市场：张家港东海粮油一级豆油 8430 元/吨，较上一交易日跌 90 元/吨。 2、市场分析：（1）国际大豆：相关机构称，目前巴西 2024/25 年度大豆作物收割率快于 上年同期。南美新季或处于丰产格局。当前时间窗口下，正处美豆出口与南美生长收割季， 建议后市积极关注美豆出口、南美豆生长收割情况、南北美天气等因素。（2）国内产业层 面：短期豆油供应与下游需求或维持中性，豆油短期库存或维稳。 3、参考观点：豆油 2505 合约，短线或震荡箱体区间运行。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3040 元/吨（-10）、天津 3160 元/吨（30）、 日照 3080 元/吨（-20）、东莞 2980 元/吨（-20）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美关税政策引发市场恐慌，市场担忧美农产品出口因此遭到影 响。 （2）国际大豆：USDA 发布的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coffee bean market is experiencing unprecedented volatility, driven by a significant increase in prices due to supply constraints, particularly from Brazil, which has led to a surge in coffee futures prices to historical highs [1][4][14]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - Coffee futures prices have risen dramatically, reaching a peak of 440 cents per pound, up over 62% from 270.72 cents per pound in November of the previous year [1]. - In Yunnan, the purchase price for coffee beans has soared to 64.5 yuan per kilogram, nearly doubling compared to the previous harvest season [2]. - The price of fresh coffee cherries has increased to 11 yuan per kilogram, compared to only 1.2-1.3 yuan six years ago, reflecting a broader trend of rising costs in the coffee supply chain [14]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The coffee processing trade is facing significant pressure, with farmers and processing plants raising prices while buyers are reluctant to increase their purchase prices, leading to a squeezed margin for traders [3][4]. - The market is characterized by a rapid turnover of transactions, with companies needing to adapt quickly to fluctuating prices, often resulting in losses on contracts due to rising costs [5][6][16]. - The domestic demand for coffee has outstripped supply, leading to a reduction in exports and a shift in focus towards local consumption, which has further exacerbated price increases [12][13]. Group 3: Supply Chain Issues - The coffee production cycle is affected by environmental factors, with a significant reduction in yield expected this year due to adverse weather conditions, potentially leading to a 30% decrease in output [14]. - The processing time for coffee beans has increased, with companies facing longer cash flow cycles due to the need for upfront payments and the rising costs of raw materials [19]. - The competition for sourcing coffee beans has intensified, with companies needing to actively seek out suppliers rather than relying on traditional procurement methods [19][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The rising prices of coffee beans are making it increasingly difficult for brands to maintain low-priced products, with estimates suggesting that a cup of coffee could cost around 1.7 yuan just for the coffee powder alone, not accounting for other costs [28]. - Companies are adjusting their procurement strategies, often reducing order sizes to mitigate risks associated with price volatility, which could lead to supply shortages in the future [23][29]. - The long-term sustainability of the coffee market may be at risk if supply begins to exceed demand in the coming years, potentially leading to a price collapse [29].