新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-10 宏观情绪有所修复，镍价震荡走高 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-09日沪镍主力合约2603开于133020元/吨，收于134520元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化1.45%，当日成交量为 417105（-137339）手，持仓量为83976（-1500）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约探底回升，美元指数走弱，伦镍隔夜涨 1.03% 带动内盘氛围回暖；国内资金向有色 金属板块流入，为沪镍提供流动性支撑，前期超跌后空头止损推动价格反弹。此外，镍矿价格持稳，镍铁成本支 撑存在，部分高成本冶炼厂减产预期抬头，供应边际收缩预期对价格形成一定支撑。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场整体表现平静，价格持稳运行。随着春节假期临近，市场参与者逐步 减少，交投氛围趋于清淡，买卖双方均以观望为主，价格在高位维持平稳。国内工厂因原料成本高企，即期生产 压力较大，对当前价位的镍矿采购意愿低迷。考虑到长假因素，多数工厂以消耗现有库存、执行长协为主，暂停 了新的现货采购计划，市场实际成交稀少。印尼市场同样进入节前平稳期，未有新的重大成交或政策消息传出。 市场继续执行2月上半月的定 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. Supply has significantly contracted, providing price support, but high polysilicon inventory suppresses demand, and prices lack upward momentum. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory clearance, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [1][2] - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Supply has shrunk in February, supporting prices, but downstream cost pressure has led to weak demand. High inventory is being cleared slowly, suppressing price increases. Before April, the "rush to export" phenomenon has no obvious driving force, and the market is waiting for the supply - demand game [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,515 yuan/ton and closed at 8,450 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-0.82%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 277,011 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 8, 2026, was 16,737 lots, an increase of 564 lots from the previous day [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices fell slightly. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton), 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (unchanged). Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1] - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 562,000 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous week [1] - The demand for industrial silicon continued to slump. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were no new orders, major polysilicon manufacturers cut production, supply shrank, and the market mainly focused on inventory reduction [1] - In February, large manufacturers had plans to cut production and shut down, and with the Spring Festival approaching, supply was expected to decrease [1] Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. Short - term range trading is recommended. There is no strategy for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated and rose. It opened at 49,500 yuan/ton and closed at 49,370 yuan/ton, a - 0.17% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 38,347 lots (37,934 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 4,706 lots [2] - Polysilicon spot prices rose slightly. According to SMM statistics, N - type material was 48.50 - 58.80 yuan/kg (+0.05 yuan/kg), and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg (unchanged) [3] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 341,000 tons, a 2.40% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer inventory was 28.32 GW, a 3.77% change. The weekly polysilicon production was 20,100 tons, a - 0.50% change, and silicon wafer production was 10.38 GW, a - 11.66% change [3] - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.18 yuan/piece (-0.05 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.48 yuan/piece (-0.03 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.28 yuan/piece (-0.03 yuan/piece) [3] - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W (unchanged), PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), and HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W (unchanged) [3][4] - In terms of components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W (unchanged), PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W (unchanged), N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W (unchanged), and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 yuan/W (unchanged) [4] Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Short - term range trading is recommended, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term. There is no strategy for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [5]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-10 长假临近淡季价格小幅波动 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-21.56美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化110元/吨至24660元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水-35元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日120元/吨至24640元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-55元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日110元/吨至24610元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-85元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-09沪锌主力合约开于24630元/吨，收于24540元/吨，较前一交易日50元/吨，全天交易日成交 122879手，全天交易日持仓63501手，日内价格最高点达到24745元/吨，最低点达到24420元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-02-09，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为14.85万吨，较上期变化1.45万吨。截止2026-02-09，LME 锌库存为106925吨，较上一交易日变化-675吨。 市场分析 实际消费进入季节性淡季，下游开工明显回落，但季节性表现节奏与往年同步，并无额外利空表现。矿端方面， 国内矿山冶炼厂均进入减产检修周期，冶炼厂采购需求下滑，进口矿同样成交寥 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday freight rate drive is weak, and the recent EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price - holding measures in March after the holiday. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and investors are advised to participate with caution. In normal years, shipping companies issue price - increase letters in March and April to stabilize prices. Before the Spring Festival, the overall drive is estimated to be bearish, and the short - selling direction has an advantage [4][5]. - For far - month contracts, the game over the resumption time is intense, and the volatility is expected to remain high. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. If it does not resume in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the capacity side is expected to be relatively controllable, and the freight rate may still reach a high level. Investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and shorting on EC2610 [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Futures Price - As of February 9, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 56,740.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 17,605.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1756.00, 1238.00, 1553.00, 1614.80, 1126.10, and 1425.50 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - On February 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1403 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 1801 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2530 US dollars/FEU. On February 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1657.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1155.66 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships have been delivered in 2026, with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU. 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 737,400 TEU (50 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: In the remaining three weeks of February, the average weekly capacity is 271,600 TEU, with the capacities in WEEK7/8/9 being 366,600/259,800/188,300 TEU respectively. In March, the average weekly capacity is 288,400 TEU, and in April, it is 274,700 TEU. There are 13 blank sailings in February, 7 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March, and 1 blank sailing and 4 TBNs in April [3]. 4. Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. COSCO management points out that there is still no clear schedule for the full resumption of the Red Sea. The Red Sea resumption needs to meet multiple conditions. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route will implement structural adjustments through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal [6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaics by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on January 8, 2026, may disrupt the shipping rhythm of relevant industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [4].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core View - The main port of EG continued to accumulate inventory last week. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,739 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3,635 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.19%. The spot basis in East China was -110 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton month-on-month. The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$57/ton, up $3/ton month-on-month, and that of coal-based syngas EG was -938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton month-on-month. The inventory in the East China main port of MEG was 935,000 tons according to CCF and 645,000 tons according to Longzhong, both showing an increase. The actual arrival volume at the main port in East China last week was 110,000 tons, and the planned arrival volume from February 9th to 23rd was 181,000 tons. [1] - On the domestic supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is at a high level, and the pressure to accumulate inventory is still high under the high supply from January to February and the weakening demand. However, Satellite plans to switch production in February, and attention should be paid to the relative changes in the valuations of various ethylene downstream products after the price increase. Overseas, with the maintenance of plants in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, the import pressure will ease around the end of February, but it will still be high from January to February, with a slight inventory reduction in March. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance has been gradually implemented, the weaving and polyester loads have accelerated their decline, and the rigid demand support has weakened. [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,739 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3,635 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.19%. The spot basis in East China was -110 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton month-on-month. [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$57/ton, up $3/ton month-on-month, and that of coal-based syngas EG was -938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton month-on-month. [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text. Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The Spring Festival maintenance of downstream industries has been gradually implemented, the weaving and polyester loads have accelerated their decline, and the rigid demand support has weakened. [2] Inventory Data - The inventory in the East China main port of MEG was 935,000 tons according to CCF and 645,000 tons according to Longzhong, both showing an increase. The actual arrival volume at the main port in East China last week was 110,000 tons, and the planned arrival volume from February 9th to 23rd was 181,000 tons. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of pure benzene and styrene, including their basis, production profits, inventories, and downstream industry conditions. It also provides investment strategies and mentions potential risks such as styrene plant recovery progress and international situation changes [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene's basis and inter - period spreads are presented, including the relationship between pure benzene's main basis and main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first and third contracts [7][14] - Similar figures for styrene are also provided, such as the relationship between styrene's main basis and main contract, main contract basis, and the spread between the first and third contracts [16][17] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show the production profits and internal - external spreads of pure benzene and styrene, including naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, non - integrated styrene production profits, and various price differences between different regions [21][25][29] 3. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures display the inventories and operating rates of pure benzene and styrene, including pure benzene's East China port inventory and operating rate, and styrene's East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and operating rate [41][44][46] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Industries - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of styrene's downstream industries, including EPS, PS, and ABS [55][57][59] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Industries - Figures show the operating rates and production profits of pure benzene's downstream industries, such as caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid, as well as other related products' production profits [65][67][85]

农产品日报 | 2026-02-10 棉价窄幅波动，郑糖小幅反弹 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14580元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15689元/吨，较前一日变动-75元/吨，现货基差CF05+1109，较前一日变动-75；3128B棉全国均价15967元/吨， 较前一日变动-58元/吨，现货基差CF05+1387，较前一日变动-58。 近期市场资讯，1月巴西棉出口量为31.7万吨，环比（45.2万吨）减少29.9%，同比（41.6万吨）减少23.7%。截至 目前，巴西2025/26年度（2025.7-2026.6）累计出口棉花约172.2万吨，同比（约163.0万吨）增加5.6%。从累计出口 目的地看，中国（47.9万吨）为巴西棉花最大出口国，占总出口量的约27.8%；孟加拉（26.8万吨）位居第二，占 比约15.6%；土耳其（21.2万吨）排第三，占比约12.3%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价横盘整理。国际方面，25/26年度全球供需格局整体仍偏宽松，美棉出口签约进度仍偏慢，终端需求 受关税政策以及地缘政治局势恶化影响 ...

宏观日报 | 2026-02-10 上游价格持续回落 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）商务部召开汽车企业座谈会，研究汽车流通消费有关工作。商务部副部长盛秋平在会上指出，我国 超大规模市场基础牢，汽车消费链条长潜力大，政策接续实施支撑稳，全链条扩大汽车消费大有可为。2026年， 商务部将会同相关部门，坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，存量措施和增量政策集成发力，优化实施汽车以旧换新， 开展汽车流通消费改革试点，完善行业管理制度，多措并举推动汽车消费扩容提质。 服务行业：1）财政部、海关总署、税务总局发布关于跨境电子商务出口退运商品税收优惠政策的公告。支持跨境 电子商务新业态发展，现将跨境电子商务出口退运商品税收优惠政策公告如下：对自2026年1月1日至2027年12月 31日期间在跨境电子商务海关监管代码（1210、9610、9710、9810）项下申报出口，因滞销、退货原因，自出口 之日起6个月内原状退运进境的商品（不含食品），免征进口关税和进口环节增值税、消费税；出口时已征收的出 口关税准予退还，出口时已征收的增值税、消费税参照内销货物发生退货有关税收规定执行。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游： ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-02-10 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 市场情绪一般，钢价震荡偏弱 钢材：市场情绪一般，钢价震荡偏弱 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日钢材盘面震荡下行，现货方面，周末杭州螺纹库存77万吨，螺纹出库1.6万吨，去年同期库存55.5 万吨，出库3.0万吨。钢银数据显示，建材库存季节性增长，卷板库存呈现累库趋势。 供需与逻辑：目前钢材整体矛盾暂未突显，建材需求表现不佳，下游采购情绪偏弱，季节性累库略高于去年，压 制螺纹价格。板材需求相对维稳，然而高库存压制热卷价格空间。总体来说，节前钢材库存持续增长，供需压力 略有加大，叠加原料价格走弱，钢材保持震荡偏弱运行，后期关注冬储补库及原料价格变化。 策略 风险 地缘政治、库存变化、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：供需矛盾加剧，铁矿弱势运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格弱势运行，现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商报价 多随行就市，钢厂采购以刚需为主。本期全球铁矿石发运明显回落，全球发运总量2535万吨，环比减少18.1%；本 期45港到港量持续回落，到港总量2361万吨，环比下跌5.0%。 供需与 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Wash trade, the aluminum price has significantly corrected, releasing industrial contradictions. However, at the current time and price level, it is difficult to stimulate downstream active procurement. With downstream entering the holiday period, the social inventory is expected to accumulate seasonally, exerting significant pressure on prices. Although there are expectations for the Two Sessions after the holiday, the aluminum price is unlikely to perform well under inventory pressure. In the short term, it is advisable to avoid risks as the long holiday approaches. In the long term, consumption resilience and strength are expected to remain positive, especially in the export market, and with a strong macro environment of simultaneous easing at home and abroad, the long - term aluminum price is likely to rise rather than fall [6] - The domestic supply pressure of alumina has not been alleviated. Although there are rumors about an alumina plant in Hebei, it is unlikely to have a substantial impact. The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and social inventory continues to increase. With the decline in the price of domestic ore in the north, the procurement enthusiasm of alumina plants for ore has decreased, and the import ore price is also falling. The cost side is difficult to provide strong support, and alumina plants are unlikely to initiate large - scale production cuts. The futures price is still at a premium, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change, with social inventory continuing to rise. Electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material inventory, and the winter storage expectation is low. Although the current futures price discount to the spot price will relieve the pressure on warehouse receipts, it is difficult to change the inventory pressure [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 23,400 yuan/ton, a change of 260 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount of East China aluminum is - 170 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 23,280 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed - 30 yuan/ton to - 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 23,430 yuan/ton, a change of 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount has changed 15 yuan/ton to - 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On February 9, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,500 yuan/ton, closed at 23,540 yuan/ton, a change of 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 23,760 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,425 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 304,640 lots, and the position was 197,639 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of February 9, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 857,000 tons, a change of 21,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 164,512 tons, a change of 8,979 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 488,975 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On February 9, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,675 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 311 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On February 9, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,840 yuan/ton, closed at 2,868 yuan/ton, a change of 41 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change rate of 1.45%. The highest price reached 2,937 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,769 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 1,076,076 lots, and the position was 333,870 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On February 9, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 17,200 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 17,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 84,600 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,430 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 570 yuan/ton [5]