果蔬品日报 | 2026-01-07 苹果节日备货启动，红枣重心转至下游 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9614元/吨，较前一日变动+67元/吨，幅度+0.70%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1414，较前一日变动-67；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1214，较前一日变动-67。 近期市场资讯，产区库内晚富士成交氛围略有好转，客商陆续包装自存货源发货，性价比较高的果农货难寻。目 前陕西果农货成交以少量两极货源为主，仍以客商发自存货源为主；甘肃产区客商按需调果农货源，包装发货较 为稳定，走货尚可。山东产区成交较为零星，礼盒开始零星包装，少量75#货源、三级货源出库为主，交易不多。 栖霞80#一二级片红果农意向成交价3.7-4.5元/斤，65#、70#出库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农统货出库 价格3.5-4.0元/斤，半商品出库价格4.0-4.3元/斤。甘肃产区静宁果农半商品5-6元/斤，果农一般通货出库价格3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [3][6] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market has a firm price bottom supported by suppliers' reluctance to sell and policy measures, with potential upward momentum from pre - holiday stocking expectations, but current demand is weak [2] - The peanut market has strong price support due to the reluctance of the grassroots and some buyers to sell, but the demand side is weak overall, and the focus is on the pre - holiday stocking rhythm of downstream users [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the bean one 2605 contract was 4276.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible bean spot basis was A05 + 84, down 13 or 32.14% from the previous day. Northeast soybean prices generally rose due to policy benefits and limited remaining grain at the grassroots level. Southern soybean spot prices were stable with light trading [1][2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanut Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 8062.00 yuan/ton, up 124.00 yuan/ton or 1.56% from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8036.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK03 - 1062.00, down 124.00 or 13.22% from the previous day. The overall demand was weak, and the price performance of oil peanuts varied [3][5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [6] Risk - The risk is weakening demand [6]

化工日报 | 2026-01-07 EG价格反弹，关注地缘变化 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3838元/吨（较前一交易日变动+106元/吨，幅度+2.84%），EG华东市场现货 价3680元/吨（较前一交易日变动+40元/吨，幅度+1.10%），EG华东现货基差-129元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。受海外局势 影响，化工品表现偏强，乙二醇价格重心适度抬升。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-93美元/吨（环比-6美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-898 元/吨（环比-41元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数8.3万吨，副 港到港量2.5万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数17.8万吨，副港到港量5.8万吨，整体偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷回升至7成以上高位，1~2月高供 应和需求转弱下累库压力仍大；海外供应方面 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-07 双硅同步走强，减产支撑上行 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-01-06，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8730元/吨，最后收于8900元/吨，较前一日结算变化（120） 元/吨，变化（1.37）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓234611手，2026-01-05仓单总数为10687手，较前一日变化 456手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计12月31日工业硅主要地区社会库存共55.7万吨，较上周变化0.36%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。近日新疆石河子地区发布污染橙色警报，供应预 期收缩，短期供应压力减少支撑价格上行。有机硅企业周度产量环比变化有限。减排挺价背景下，有机硅单体企 业从12月初开始陆续降负减产。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-01-07甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1.部分装置停车：榆林凯越、新疆新业等。 2.伊朗甲醇开工降低；港口库存处于低位。 3.荆门60万吨/年醋酸装置已于5月16日出产品；新疆中和合众60万吨/年醋酸本月下旬 有投产计划。 4.西北CTO工厂甲醇外采。 利空： 1.前期停车装置恢复：内蒙古东华等。 2. 下半月港口预计到船集中； 1、基本面：委内瑞拉遇袭事件虽未直接推高原油期货，但仍带来短期风险溢价，提振市场情绪。然而，当前基本面支 撑不强。国内企业开工率稳在八成以上高位，且部分前期检修装置已回归，上游继续保持低库存销售策略，而冬季传统 下游需求跟进缓慢，部 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment has improved, and steel prices are fluctuating. Building materials are in a state of low production, consumption, and inventory, with limited price volatility. After New Year's Day, the winter storage market for building materials will begin, and the game between reality and expectations will intensify. Plates are still restricted by high inventory, and the short - term inventory pressure is difficult to resolve [1]. - The market sentiment for iron ore has improved, and prices are slightly fluctuating. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and the overall inventory has increased significantly. The price is at a high - level range in the short term but may face a downward risk once the negotiation is settled [3]. - The molten iron output has slightly increased, and coking coal and coke prices are fluctuating widely. After New Year's Day, the demand for coke is expected to improve, while the supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the price may be weak in the short term [5][6]. - The pit - mouth coal price is adjusting, and the supply in the production area is recovering. The daily consumption of thermal coal is still not good, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The steel futures market showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The national building material prices increased by 10 - 20 yuan, and the national building material trading volume was 96,623 tons [1]. - Supply and demand logic: Building materials have no obvious supply - demand contradictions, maintaining low production, consumption, and inventory. After New Year's Day, the winter storage market will start. Plates are restricted by high inventory, and the short - term inventory pressure is difficult to resolve [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price fluctuated upward, and the trading volume increased significantly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Shandong ports rose slightly, with low trading volume and low procurement intention from steel mills [3]. - Supply and demand logic: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and the overall inventory has increased significantly. The market gives a high valuation to the iron ore price, but it may face a downward risk once the negotiation is settled. In the short term, the actual inventory pressure is limited, and the price will maintain a high - level range [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated. The coke market continued to be weak and stable, and the inventory pressure of upstream coke has been alleviated. The coking coal auction prices mostly continued to decline, and the price of imported Mongolian coking coal decreased [5]. - Supply and demand logic: After New Year's Day, the demand for coke is expected to improve. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the price may be weak in the short term. After the winter storage, the price may be further adjusted [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Fluctuating; Coke: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, coal mines are resuming production, and the pit - mouth coal price is adjusting. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the trading volume at ports is light. The import coal market is rising steadily [7]. - Supply and demand logic: The daily consumption of thermal coal is still not good. After New Year's Day, the supply in the production area is gradually recovering, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The market sentiment has improved, and steel prices are oscillating. Glass and soda ash are showing an oscillatory upward trend due to stable downstream consumption. Silicon ferroalloys (silicon manganese and silicon iron) are also experiencing price fluctuations influenced by various factors such as electricity costs, supply - demand relationships, and steel procurement [1][3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market oscillated upward yesterday, while the spot market's transaction center shifted downward, with downstream buyers purchasing on - demand. The soda ash futures market also oscillated upward, but downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment and made purchases based on rigid demand [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For glass, the supply - demand contradiction is still significant. Although some production lines are gradually cold - repairing, the production reduction is insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. There is a large inventory pressure, and there is a possibility of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The market has expectations for the post - Spring Festival peak season. For soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. Supply has decreased, and demand has weakened, leading to a month - on - month increase in inventory. With new soda ash projects planned for commissioning and the possibility of increased cold - repair of float glass production lines, it is necessary to control the production profit of soda ash enterprises [1]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda ash is also expected to oscillate. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [2]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: The manganese silicon futures market rose slightly yesterday, with the overall sentiment improving. The market is oscillating, and market participants are waiting for the new round of steel procurement. The 6517 manganese silicon is priced at 5570 - 5670 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton in the southern market. The silicon iron futures market rose significantly due to the implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi. Traders are actively purchasing during the January steel procurement, and the overall sales are good. The 72 - grade silicon iron natural lump is priced at 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade silicon iron is priced at 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not good, with production still higher than demand and a significant increase in inventory. Although the resumption of steel mills after New Year's Day will help repair the rigid demand for manganese silicon, the high inventory pressure restricts price increases. The low inventory of manganese ore at ports provides price support. For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction has been significantly alleviated. Enterprises have actively reduced production, leading to a significant decrease in factory inventory. After the resumption of steel mills, the rigid demand for silicon iron is expected to improve. The planned implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi will increase the production cost of silicon iron enterprises, and the futures market is in a loss state [3]. - **Strategy**: Manganese silicon is expected to oscillate, and silicon iron is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [4].

农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | 补栏淘汰意愿变化对产能的影响。 | | | --- | --- | | 周二，生猪期货反弹，主力 2603 合约盘中震荡向上，日收涨 1.29%，报收 11810 元/吨。卓创数据显示，昨日中国生猪日度均价 12.5 元/公斤，环比涨 0.06 元/公 | | | 斤，基准交割地河南市场生猪均价 13 元/公斤，环比涨 0.18 元/公斤，四川平， | | | 山东、广东、辽宁涨。大体重生猪需求较好，养殖端有压栏增重情绪，生猪实际 | | | 生猪 供应偏紧，支撑生猪现货价格上涨。我的农产品公布数据显示，12 月，规模长 | 震荡 | | 能繁母猪存栏环比下降 0.18%，中小散环比下降 1.19%，综合环比降幅 0.22%，能 | | | 繁母猪存栏环比延续下降，对期货市场形成支撑，远月合约增仓向上。建议设置 | | | 动态止盈，关注生猪期货主力合约长期均线的技术表现。 | | 二、市场信息 1、 印度尼西亚贸易部表示，印尼已将 1 月份毛棕榈油参考价格定为每吨 915 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法,并不代表广发期货或系附属机构的立场,在任何情况下,报告内审仪供参考,报告中的信息或所霖 达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给 发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,版权归 广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为"广发期货" 知识图强, 求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 | を业期现日报 | | | --- | --- | | 王涛庭 Z0019938 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月6日 | | | 原田 | | 1月5日 1月4日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | 江苏一级 8410 8410 0 0.00% | 现价 | | Y2605 7856 7862 -୧ -0.08% | 期价 | | Y2605 554 548 б 1.09% | 基差 | | 江苏5月 05 + 520 05 +520 0 - | 现 ...

2026年01月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：短期高位震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强20260107 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:短期中枢上移 | 6 | | LLDPE：标品排产回落，现货坚挺 | 8 | | PP：存量检修不多，基差被动走弱 | 9 | | 烧碱：短期偏强，中期震荡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡偏强20260107 | 12 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 14 | | 甲醇：短期偏强 | 15 | | 尿素：震荡中枢上移 | 17 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 19 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：进口成本坚挺，关注负反馈兑现 | 22 | | 丙烯：需求平稳，现货小幅探涨 | 22 | | PVC：短期偏强，但上方空间或有限 | 25 | | 燃料油：转入强势，短期易涨难跌 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：跟涨走势，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅收窄 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：02补贴水，远月关注补贴 ...