商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 10 日 纸浆：震荡运行 20260210 | | | 昨日纸浆期货市场午后临近收盘快速下跌，对市场情绪有一定的打压。现货市场走势同样清淡，实际交投 十分有限，业者普遍持观望态度。市场结构呈现分化，主要以期现商出货为主，而下游纸厂因春节假期临近， 入市采购已接近停滞。当前供需基本面未提供新的消息指引，市场缺乏打破僵局的驱动因素，建议关注纸浆市 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5, 200 | 5, 234 | -34 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5. 180 | 5, 216 | -36 | | | | 成交量(手) | 185. 219 | 204. 913 | -19. 694 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量(手) | 300. 912 | 287. 362 | +13, 550 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 146, 447 | 146. 447 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [3] 2. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Summary Futures Data - On February 9, the closing price of the BR main contract was 12,810, up 20 from the previous day and down 375 week - on - week [4] - The position was 27,608, up 331 from the previous day and down 9,713 week - on - week [4] - The trading volume was 174,314, down 30,875 from the previous day and down 103,781 week - on - week [4] - The number of warehouse receipts was 32,270, up 100 from the previous day and up 4,380 week - on - week [4] - The long - short ratio was 4.28, unchanged from the previous day and down 2 week - on - week [4] Basis and Spread Data - The butadiene - styrene basis was 190, down 70 from the previous day and up 175 week - on - week [4] - The 02 - 03 spread was - 255, down 270 from the previous day and down 60 week - on - week [4] - The 03 - 04 spread was - 15, up 40 from the previous day and up 45 week - on - week [4] - The RU - BR spread was 3435, up 145 from the previous day and up 440 week - on - week [4] - The NR - BR spread was 340, up 80 from the previous day and up 430 week - on - week [4] Spot and Price Data - The Shandong market price was 12,500, down 200 from the previous day and down 300 week - on - week [4] - The Chuanhua market price was 12,600, down 100 from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 12,800, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia was 1700, up 75 from the previous day and up 75 week - on - week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia was 1850, up 25 from the previous day and up 25 week - on - week [4] Profit Data - The spot processing profit was - 382, down 328 from the previous day and down 224 week - on - week [4] - The import profit was - 1294, down 756 from the previous day and down 842 week - on - week [4] - The export profit was 1297, up 318 from the previous day and up 392 week - on - week [4] 3. BD (Butadiene) Data Summary Spot and Price Data - The Shandong market price was 10,475, up 125 from the previous day and down 75 week - on - week [4] - The Jiangsu market price was 10,300, up 50 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 10,300, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - CFR China was 1270, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [4] Profit Data - The ethylene cracking profit data on February 9 was N/A [4] - The C4 extraction profit data on February 9 was N/A [4] - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 1780, up 100 from the previous day and down 130 week - on - week [4] - The import profit was 215, up 74 from the previous day and down 166 week - on - week [4] - The export profit was - 804, down 63 from the previous day and up 2090 week - on - week [4] Production Profit Data - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 900, up 38 from the previous day and up 188 week - on - week [4] - The ABS production profit data after February 5 was N/A [4] - The SBS production profit was - 860, up 45 from the previous day and up 185 week - on - week [4]

2026年02月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：基本面驱动有限，能源价格支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：或跟随美豆震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面偏强 | 4 | | 玉米：窄幅震荡 | 6 | | 白糖：关注低基差机会 | 7 | | 棉花：节前预计维持震荡走势20260210 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 9 | | 生猪：旺季不旺确认，堰塞湖释放开始 | 10 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 10 日 棕榈油：基本面驱动有限，能源价格支撑 豆油：区间震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,014 | 涨跌幅 -0.13% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,974 | 涨跌幅 -0.44% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom, and a backwardation spread strategy is recommended. PTA's downside space may be limited, and a short position is recommended when the processing fee is above 450. MEG has increasing inventory and large supply pressure, and a reverse basis and spread strategy is recommended [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 7290, 5192, 3739, 6606, and 464.2 respectively. Their price changes were 28, 26, - 4, 28, and - 5.6, with percentage changes of 0.39%, 0.50%, - 0.11%, 0.43%, and - 1.19% respectively. The month - spreads of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 were 16, 8, - 110, - 80, and 0.1 respectively [4] - Yesterday's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 900.33 dollars/ton, 5108 yuan/ton, 3635 yuan/ton, 597.88 dollars/ton, and 72.11 dollars/barrel respectively. The price changes were 2.33, 18, 5, - 4.75, and 0.7 respectively [4] - Yesterday's spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 294.05, 378.86, 71.28, 294.17, and - 4.34 respectively. The changes were 5.96, - 49.15, 29.19, 70.13, and 0 respectively [4] Fundamental Data - MEG: The inventory in some major ports in East China is about 93.5 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons from the previous period. From February 2nd to February 8th, the average daily shipment of a mainstream warehouse in Zhangjiagang was about 5400 tons, and that of two mainstream warehouses in Taicang was about 5500 - 6000 tons [5] - PX: The naphtha price was stalemate at the end of the session. A 4 - month Asian spot was traded at 902 dollars/ton, and PX closed at 900 dollars/ton CFR, a 2 - dollar increase from last Friday [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [6] PX Analysis - PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom. The month - spread is in backwardation. In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain is weakening. This week, the PX operating rate rose to 89.5% (+0.3%), and the Asian operating rate is 82.4% (+0.8%). The PTA operating rate remained at 77.6% (+1%). The PXN processing fee was compressed to 288 dollars/ton, and short PTA processing fees above 450 [6] PTA Analysis - PTA's downside space may be limited, and the month - spread is bearish. Short PTA processing fees above 450. In January, textile domestic sales ended, and foreign trade had orders. The polyester operating rate is expected to be 80.5% in February and 91% in March. The PTA operating rate remained at 77.6%. A 250 - ton device of Xin Fengming will be overhauled in February, and pay attention to the 5100 - yuan/ton support [7] MEG Analysis - MEG inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is large. Use a reverse basis and spread strategy. This week, the device operating rate rose to 76.22% (+1.85%). Many overseas devices will be overhauled in March, and the import volume is decreasing. However, due to the large - scale shutdown of polyester on the demand side, the inventory accumulation pressure in February is large, and the post - holiday inventory digestion is difficult [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **PTA**: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, polyester production cuts are expanding and end - users are gradually on holiday. PTA supply and demand are likely to accumulate, with light spot market negotiations. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side before the Spring Festival, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the commodity atmosphere and upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - **MEG**: Due to the unloading of some ocean - going vessels this week, the visible inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to continue to rise at the beginning of the week. From the second half of the month, the arrival of foreign vessels will be more dispersed. Fundamentally, there is still a strong seasonal inventory accumulation expectation for ethylene glycol from January to February, but the medium - term supply - demand structure is expected to improve moderately. Overseas device restarts are postponed and new maintenance volumes emerge, and the import volume in the second quarter is expected to be revised down. The absolute price of ethylene glycol is already at a low level, with limited downside space and buying support at low levels. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will mainly maintain range consolidation [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **PTA**: The PTA futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis changed little. This week, transactions were negotiated at a discount of around 75 to the 05 contract, with the price negotiation range at 5080 - 5145. For the end of February, transactions were at a discount of 57 - 60 to the 05 contract, and for mid - March, at a discount of 43 to the 05 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is at 05 - 75. The spot price is 5108, the basis of the 05 contract is - 84, and the futures price is at a premium. The PTA factory inventory is 3.74 days, a 0.16 - day increase from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract decreased [6]. - **MEG**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol was narrowly sorted, and the market negotiation was average. During the day, the spot negotiation was around a discount of 105 - 115 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, with some contract traders participating in the purchase. The negotiation atmosphere in the market was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market fluctuated little. During the day, the arrival cargo was traded at around 433 - 435 US dollars/ton, and the cargo for the end of February was negotiated at around 445 - 450 US dollars/ton, with a transaction at around 448 US dollars/ton. Some suppliers participated in the purchase. The spot price is 3635, the basis of the 05 contract is - 104, and the futures price is at a premium. The total inventory in East China is 83.1 tons, a 4.83 - ton increase from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract decreased [7]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: The impact of the 700,000 - ton Gulei Petrochemical device's shutdown for maintenance from early March to around the end of April is positive. The resumption of the 1 - million - ton PTA device of Nengtou last week is negative [8][9]. - **MEG**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be watched for the futures price rebound [9]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **PX Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The table shows the monthly supply - demand balance of PX from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, import, demand, inventory changes, domestic utilization rate, and the balance of PX for polyester [10]. - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The table presents the monthly balance of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, covering production, import, export, total consumption, refined consumption, other consumption, surplus, year - on - year growth rate of production and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year growth rate [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The table shows the monthly balance of ethylene glycol from October 2025 to September 2026, including production, import, total consumption, polyester consumption, other consumption, surplus, year - on - year growth rate of production, import, supply, and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year growth rate of supply and consumption [12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PET Bottle Chip**: Data on market price, production profit, operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and inventory are presented in the form of charts, showing the trends from 2022 to 2026 [15][16][18][21]. - **PTA**: Data on inter - month spread, basis, processing fee, and factory inventory are presented in charts, covering the period from 2022 to 2026 [24][27][58][41]. - **MEG**: Data on inter - month spread, basis, profit from different production methods, and port inventory are presented in charts, showing the trends from 2022 to 2026 [30][34][59][41]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream**: Data on the operating rates of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester, and textile enterprises in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are presented in charts, covering the period from 2022 to 2026 [51][55]. - **Polyester Fiber**: Data on the production profit of polyester short - fiber and different types of polyester long - fiber are presented in charts, showing the trends from 2023 to 2026 [62][63][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of the coking coal market is expected to tighten significantly as private coal mines in production areas gradually enter the state of shutdown and holiday. The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to remain stable in the short term [2][6] - For coking coal, factors such as rising hot metal production and limited supply increase are positive, while factors like slowdown in procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices are negative [4] - For coke, rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate are positive factors, while factors such as squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - draft of restocking demand are negative [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - **Coking Coal**: The supply is expected to tighten, the market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Total sample inventory increased by 570,000 tons compared to last week. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions. It is expected that the short - term price will remain stable [2] - **Coke**: Coke enterprises maintain normal production, but the overall market demand is average, and inventory pressure is emerging. The basis shows that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. Total sample inventory increased by 180,000 tons compared to last week. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the short - term price will remain stable [6][7] Price - **Imported Coking Coal**: On February 9, 2026 (17:30), the prices of various imported coking coals from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some prices showing fluctuations [10] - **Port Metallurgical Coke**: On February 9, 2026 (17:30), the prices of various port metallurgical cokes from different origins and of different grades are provided, with some prices rising or remaining unchanged [11] Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 2.73 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 201,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared to last week [21] - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 1.095 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 45,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared to last week [25] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 824,000 tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 692,000 tons, an increase of 140,000 tons compared to last week [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, most varieties in the agricultural sector are volatile. Oils and fats, protein meals, corn, natural rubber, cotton, and pulp are expected to fluctuate, while live pigs and sugar prices are likely to be weak. Synthetic rubber is expected to be moderately strong, and logs are expected to be range - bound [1]. - The overall supply of oilseeds such as soybeans and rapeseeds is relatively loose, and palm oil is about to enter the destocking trend. The demand side should focus on biodiesel policies and export performance in the producing areas. Recently, the market has been intertwined with long and short factors, and oils and fats are expected to fluctuate [4]. - Near the Spring Festival, downstream stocking is basically completed, trading is light, and the protein meal market is expected to fluctuate [6]. - Near the Spring Festival, the trading of corn is light, and the price is expected to be weak. After the festival, attention should be paid to the rhythm of traders' delivery, restocking, and inventory building [8][9]. - The supply of live pigs is loose, and the price is weak. The downward cycle has not ended, but the industry's destocking process is blocked and needs further observation [10]. - The fundamentals of natural rubber are relatively weak, but the expectation is good. The market is expected to fluctuate due to increased capital attention [14]. - The improvement of the supply - demand pattern of butadiene is relatively certain, but it needs adjustment in the short term and is expected to be moderately strong in the medium term [17]. - Before the Spring Festival, cotton is expected to fluctuate. After the festival, the terminal demand is expected to pick up, and the price center of gravity is expected to rise [17]. - In the medium and long term, the sugar price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. The new sugar - making season is expected to have an oversupply in the global sugar market, and the price has a downward driving force [18]. - The pulp futures are still weak, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the Spring Festival. After the festival, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and it is expected to fluctuate [19]. - The double - gum paper market is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, and the market trading is expected to stagnate in mid - to late February. After the festival, attention should be paid to the resumption of work and production of downstream printing factories [21]. - The log market is expected to be range - bound. In the short term, there is no new driving force, and the fundamentals remain loose [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Oils and fats fluctuate narrowly. - **Information**: As of the end of the 6th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1974,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.60%. - **Logic**: Near the Spring Festival, the market sentiment is wait - and - see, and the oils and fats fluctuate narrowly. The expectation of destocking of palm oil is weakening, and the soybean market is affected by trade negotiations and bio - diesel policies [4]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: The trading of double - meals is light, and the market fluctuates. - **Logic**: The market's expectation of China's increased procurement of US soybeans has cooled, and the supply peak of Brazilian soybeans is coming. In China, the oil mills are shutting down, and the logistics is stagnating. After the festival, the cost of imported soybeans is expected to decrease, and the spot and basis of soybean meal are expected to be weak [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: Near the Spring Festival, the trading of corn is light, and the price is expected to be weak. - **Information**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract is 2274 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. - **Logic**: Near the Spring Festival, the downstream stocking is coming to an end, and the trading is inactive. After the festival, the selling pressure may increase, and the demand is lackluster. The supply of substitute grains and imported grains may suppress the price of domestic corn [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is loose, and the price is weak. - **Price**: On February 9, the national average price of live pigs was 11.71 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. The closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 11,565 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. - **Logic**: In the short term, the slaughter is increasing. In the medium term, the supply will be excessive until April 2026. In the long term, the industry's destocking process is blocked. The demand is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be weak [10]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Before the Spring Festival, it is mainly range - bound. - **Information**: The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 15,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials in Thailand's Hoh Ai market has increased. - **Logic**: The rubber price has increased slightly, maintaining a range - bound trend. The fundamentals are weak, but the expectation is good. The supply is abundant, and the demand is supported by tire enterprises' procurement, but the inventory is increasing rapidly [12][14]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the short - term support strength. - **Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber has decreased, and the domestic spot price of butadiene has increased. - **Logic**: The BR market first rose and then fell, and the support at the 12,500 yuan/ton mark is strong. The supply of butadiene is expected to be tight in the first half of 2026, and the market sentiment affects the price, but the downside space is limited [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium term. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. - **Information**: On February 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 05 contract was 14,580 yuan/ton. - **Logic**: The processing and inspection of new cotton are coming to an end, and the demand is improving, but the textile factories are shutting down for the holiday. The market risk preference is decreasing, and the macro - sentiment is weakening. After the festival, the demand is expected to pick up [17]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium and long term. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar production in Brazil has entered the end, and the sugar price is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium and long term. - **Information**: On February 9, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 05 contract was 5261 yuan/ton. As of the first half of January in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in central and southern Brazil was 40.236 million tons, an increase of 345,000 tons year - on - year. - **Logic**: In the medium and long term, the sugar price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. The global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the new sugar - making season, and the supply of major producing countries is expected to increase [18]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The pulp futures are still weak, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the Spring Festival. - **Information**: The price of coniferous pulp in Shandong has not changed. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the terminal and downstream are on holiday. After the festival, the demand is expected to recover seasonally. The bottom support of the pulp futures has weakened, and the downside space is limited [19]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate. 3.1.10 Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: The double - gum paper market fluctuates narrowly at a low level. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the trading is expected to decrease, and the market is stable. In February, the number of enterprises choosing to shut down for maintenance may increase, and the market trading is expected to stagnate in mid - to late February. After the festival, attention should be paid to the resumption of work and production of downstream printing factories [21]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The log market is weak. - **Logic**: The log market is affected by the suspension of delivery warehouses, but the fundamentals are loose. The valuation has increased, and the supply has decreased in the short term, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the medium term [23]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be range - bound. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring There is no specific data monitoring content provided in the report. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on February 9, 2026. - **Characteristic Index**: The commodity index increased by 0.70% to 2374.89, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.96% to 2710.51, the industrial products index increased by 0.21% to 2278.80, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.58% to 1404.35 [183]. - **Sector Index**: The agricultural product index on February 9, 2026 was 927.90, with a daily decline of 0.19%, a 5 - day decline of 0.56%, a 1 - month decline of 1.67%, and a year - to - date decline of 0.55% [184].

| | 1、据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至2月8日，巴西大豆播种率为99.7%，上周为 | | --- | --- | | | 99.6%，去年同期为99.5%，五年均值为99.5%；巴西大豆收割率为17.4%，上周为11.2%，去年同 | | 行业 | 期为14.8%，五年均值为18.7%。2、布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所（BAGE）称，截至2月4日，阿根廷 | | 信息 | 2025/2026年度大豆播种工作全部结束3、截至2月6日当周，国内主要油厂大豆压榨量248万吨，为 | | | 历史次高水平，周环比上升19万吨 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡收跌，根据CONAB数据截至1月31日，巴西大豆收割率为11.4%，上周为 | | | 6.6%，去年同期为8%，五年均值为11.8%。美方称中国对美豆的采购计划可能从已完成的1200万吨 | | | 提升至2000万吨，大幅提振美豆出口前景。但考虑到巴西收割工作现阶段持续进行，且巴西产量 | | | 预估继续上调，收割压力逐步加大使得美豆期价仍面临一定压力。国内方面，节后进口大豆拍卖 | | | 预计恢复，叠加国内豆粕的高库存以及远月供应 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 螺纹钢： （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 昨日螺纹盘面弱势下跌，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3064元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格下跌13元/ 吨，跌幅为0.42%，持仓增加9.02万手。现货市场商家陆续离市，报价平稳，成交基本停滞，唐山地区 迁安普方坯价格持平于2910元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于3160元/吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建 材库存增加13.17%至381.9万吨，热卷库存增加6.16%至223.81万吨，库存呈现加速累积态势。目前长流 程钢厂仍有一定的利润空间，铁水产量处于相对高位，市场对于节后钢厂复产进度快于需求复苏进度仍 有较明显担忧，节后库存面临较大的消化压力。同时，近期铁矿石、煤焦库存持续累积，随着钢厂补库 结束，原料端价格连续下跌，原料对钢价支撑力度减弱。预计短期螺纹盘面仍以弱势整理运行为主。 （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 昨日焦煤盘面上涨，截止日盘焦煤2605合约收盘1147元/吨，价格上涨8.5元/吨，涨幅0.75%，持 ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Market - Domestic all-latex rubber price increased to 16,100 CNY/ton, up by 200 CNY/ton from the previous day [4] - Thai 20 mixed rubber price rose to 15,200 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day [4] - As of February 8, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade reached 606,800 tons, an increase of 15,100 tons, or 2.55% [4][31] Group 2: PX Market - PX industry load in China increased by 0.3 percentage points to 89.5%, while Asia's industry load rose by 0.8 percentage points to 82.4%, indicating a stable supply [5][32] - Demand from downstream PTA facilities is expected to decrease due to planned maintenance, leading to a shift towards a looser supply-demand balance in February and March [5][32] - The Brent crude oil price has risen due to geopolitical risks, which may provide support for PX prices in the second quarter [5][32] Group 3: PTA Market - PTA industry load increased by 1.0 percentage points to 77.6%, but remains below historical levels [6][33] - Demand from terminal enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is declining, with operating rates expected to drop to annual lows by mid-February [6][33] - The anticipated adjustment of U.S. tariff exemptions for Bangladeshi textiles may lead to increased investment by Chinese textile manufacturers in Bangladesh [6][33] Group 4: EG Market - Ethylene glycol industry load increased by 1.7 percentage points to 76.1%, but the supply remains adequate despite a decrease in import volumes [8][35] - February is expected to see significant inventory pressure, but a potential improvement is anticipated in March [8][35] - Current prices are not sufficient to trigger large-scale production cuts, indicating limited upward momentum [8][35] Group 5: PR Market - The bottle-grade PET industry load remained stable at 66.1%, with ongoing production cuts supporting a tightening supply [10][39] - The demand is limited due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, with limited room for production recovery in February [10][39] - Supply-side reductions are expected to drive inventory depletion and support processing fees [10][39] Group 6: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures experienced a slight decline, with stable spot prices [13][40] - Recent production has decreased by 0.9 million tons to 774,000 tons, while downstream demand has slightly weakened [13][40] - The market sentiment is turning weaker due to increased supply and reduced demand [13][40] Group 7: Glass Market - Glass futures saw a slight increase, with stable spot prices [15][42] - Recent glass production has decreased, while inventory has slightly increased by 25,000 tons to 2.653 million tons [15][42] - The construction sector is facing challenges, with a year-on-year decline in housing completion area [15][42] Group 8: Caustic Soda Market - Caustic soda futures increased by 75 CNY/ton to 1,937 CNY/ton [16][50] - The market is experiencing steady prices for 32% and 50% caustic soda, with some slight declines in specific areas [16][50] - Demand remains subdued, leading to a stable but slightly declining market price [16][50] Group 9: PVC Market - PVC futures decreased by 103 CNY/ton to 5,052 CNY/ton, with ongoing supply pressure [19][46] - The market is facing a reality versus expectation battle, with high operating rates contributing to supply pressure [19][46] - Short-term improvements are limited, but optimistic expectations remain due to potential policy changes [19][46]