以下文章来源于正念投资 ，作者正念投资 正念投资 . 我们与生俱来的追求优裕生活的愿望,至死也不会改变。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：正念投资 来源：雪球 写在前面 2025年6月13日以色列对伊朗核计划发动空袭 ！ 全国进入紧急状态 ！ 自此 ， 中东再次开战 ， 我们把目 光再次投向了黄金 。 长期向上的贝塔 根据wind数据 ， 最早记录的时间是1990年12月19日 ， COMEX黄金收盘388美元/盎司 ， 截至2025年6 月13日 ， 价格上涨至3452.60美元/盎司 。 上涨789.85% ， 经历了34.51年 ， 年化6.54% 。 最大回撤 在这34.51年的过程中 ， 黄金有两次大的回调 ， 一次是从1996年2月到1999年7月 ， 区间最大回撤达 到-39.12% 。 另外一次是2011年9月到2015年12月 ， 最大回撤为-44.36% 。 但是 ， 幸运的是 ， 两次最大回撤最终都创了新高 。 | 日期 | 收盘价 | 区间最大回撤 | 天数 | 年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

以下文章来源于正念投资 ，作者正念投资 正念投资 . 我们与生俱来的追求优裕生活的愿望,至死也不会改变。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：正念投资 来源：雪球 最大回撤 在这34.51年的过程中 ， 黄金有两次大的回调 ， 一次是从1996年2月到1999年7月 ， 区间最大回撤达 到-39.12% 。 另外一次是2011年9月到2015年12月 ， 最大回撤为-44.36% 。 但是 ， 幸运的是 ， 两次最大回撤最终都创了新高 。 | 日期 | 收盘价 | 区间最大回撤 | 天数 | 年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1996/2/2 | 417.7 | | | | | 1999/7/19 | 253.9 | -39.21% | 1263 | 3.46 | | 2004/3/30 | 422.8000 | | 1716 | 4.70 | 写在前面 2025年6月13日以色列对伊朗核计划发动空袭 ！ 全国进入紧急状态 ！ 自此 ， 中东再次开战 ， 我们把目 光再次投向了黄金 。 长期向上的贝塔 根据win ...

文字早评 2025/06/16 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.75%，创指-1.13%，科创 50-0.51%，北证 50-2.92%，上证 50-0.55%，沪深 300-0.72%， 中证 500-1.03%，中证 1000-1.39%，中证 2000-2.03%，万得微盘-1.70%。两市合计成交 14672 亿，较上 一日+1954 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、5 月社融增量 2.29 万亿元，同比多增 2247 亿元；新增人民币贷款 6200 亿元，M2-M1 剪刀差缩 小。 2、国常会：进一步优化现有政策，更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 3、央行：6 月 16 日将开展 4000 亿元买断式逆回购操作。 资金面：融资额+23.87 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+4.40bp 至 1.411%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-2.58bp 至 2.9004%，十年期国债利率-0.34bp 至 1.6451%，信用利差-2.24bp 至 126bp；美国 10 年期利率+5bp 至 4.41%，中美利差-5.34bp 至-276.49bp。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/ ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant role of stablecoin companies in purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds, with a total of $1.5 trillion acquired over 18 months, surpassing the holdings of major traditional buyers like China and Japan [1][3]. Group 1: Stablecoin Impact on U.S. Treasury Bonds - Stablecoin companies have transformed into major buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds, effectively acting as a "perpetual motion machine" for these assets due to regulatory requirements [3]. - The global market capitalization of stablecoins has surged to $2.4 trillion, with daily transaction volumes reaching $27.6 trillion, exceeding the combined volumes of Visa and Mastercard [3]. - The decline of traditional buyers, such as China reducing its holdings to $765.4 billion, indicates a broader trend of capital flight from U.S. Treasuries [3]. Group 2: Financial Mechanisms and Risks - The U.S. government is leveraging stablecoins to indirectly finance its debt, with companies like Circle being integrated into the financial system as quasi-central banks [5]. - The concentration of stablecoin assets in U.S. Treasuries poses significant risks, as 66% of Tether's assets are tied to these bonds, creating potential vulnerabilities in case of a default or rising interest rates [5]. - The liquidity risk is highlighted, with stablecoins only able to handle 15% of potential redemption pressures, while upcoming U.S. debt maturities could require them to absorb 20% [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The article discusses the geopolitical maneuvering, with countries like China diversifying their reserves away from U.S. Treasuries and increasing gold holdings [6]. - The use of stablecoins in international trade, such as purchasing oil with USDT, suggests a complex relationship between decentralized finance and U.S. dollar dominance [6]. - The potential for a financial crisis is underscored, as reliance on retail investor confidence could lead to a rapid collapse in the event of a panic sell-off [6].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around stablecoins is gaining momentum globally, with optimistic views suggesting they could significantly enhance the cryptocurrency market, despite their current market cap being only around $300 billion to $3000 billion. The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated that stablecoins could increase the demand for U.S. Treasury bonds by $2 trillion in the short term, compared to the current figure of approximately $300 billion [2]. Group 1: Definition and Stages of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are a type of blockchain digital currency that is pegged to specific assets, primarily the U.S. dollar, which distinguishes them from volatile cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [3]. - The development of stablecoins can be categorized into four stages: 1. Emergence (before 2018): Limited price fluctuations with the first stablecoin, Tether (USDT), launched in 2014 [6]. 2. Rapid Growth (2019-2021): The DeFi ecosystem's rise led to increased demand for stablecoins, particularly during the "DeFi Summer" of 2020 [6]. 3. Regulatory Adjustment (2022-2023): The collapse of TerraUSD (UST) raised concerns about stability and prompted regulatory scrutiny [8]. 4. Resurgence (2024-present): Following the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, stablecoins are experiencing renewed demand as intermediaries in cryptocurrency transactions [8]. Group 2: Risks and Challenges - The primary risks associated with stablecoins stem from the compliance and operational management of issuing entities, with insufficient transparency regarding reserve assets being a significant concern [12]. - The collapse of UST highlighted the potential for a "death spiral" effect, where panic selling leads to further declines in associated assets, exacerbating instability [13]. - The concentration of wealth within the stablecoin ecosystem is problematic, with 99% of wallets holding less than $10,000, while a small number of wallets control a significant portion of the total supply [16]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments - Recent legislative efforts in the U.S. and Hong Kong aim to establish regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, with the U.S. Senate passing the GENIUS Act and Hong Kong enacting the Stablecoin Ordinance [17][22]. - The U.S. framework emphasizes the need for stablecoins to be backed by high-quality liquid assets, while Hong Kong's regulations focus on ensuring that issuers maintain sufficient reserves and comply with transparency requirements [18]. Group 4: Market Implications - The potential for stablecoins to act as a reservoir for U.S. Treasury bonds is debated, with concerns that they cannot be printed indefinitely without undermining trust [21]. - The current demand for short-term U.S. Treasury bonds from stablecoin issuers may not address the broader issues facing U.S. debt, as the focus is primarily on high-yield investments [21]. - The development of stablecoins is seen as a strategic move to solidify the dominance of the U.S. dollar in international payments, with regulatory support aimed at integrating stablecoins into the financial system [21].

近期，美债收益率持续攀升，引发市场担忧，而触发美债持续性担忧的除了债务上限和"大漂亮法案"之外，还有一个重要因素是美元利率太 高，导致政府偿还债务的利息压力不断攀升。 笔者认为，随着关税对美国经济的冲击逐步显现，通胀抬升的影响滞后，市场对美联储降息的预期有所升温。不过，美联储依旧担忧长期通 胀的回升，6月议息会议大概率按兵不动，但9月降息的可能性上升。因此，美元利率的上升势头会逐步放缓。 关税对美国经济构成冲击 美联储公布的褐皮书显示，最近几周美国的经济活动略有下滑，表明关税和高度不确定性正在对经济产生影响。大多数地区将就业描述为"持 平"，并普遍提到由于不确定性导致招聘推迟。美国所有地区都指出劳动力需求减弱，工资继续以"适度"的速度增长。 不过，通胀传导可能相对滞后，除非美国取消加征关税。因为美国进口商的关税承受力有一定的阈值，若超过这个阈值，进口商必然会向消 费者转嫁加征关税的成本。相关数据显示，一些受进口关税上调影响较大的商品价格确实出现了显著上涨。比如玩具价格涨幅创2023年以来 最大，大型家电价格创近5年来最大涨幅。5月，家电和户外设备价格环比分别上涨0.8%和0.5%。 美联储9月降息的概率上升 ...

地缘冲突下的投资机会 20250615 摘要 伊以冲突若不升级，预计黄金和原油行情持续两周，涨幅约 5%；美股 最大下跌 1-3%，A 股下跌约 5%。地缘风险升级将放大资产波动性，类 似 911 或俄乌冲突，美股或跌超 10%。 当前市场面临政策交易放缓、地缘政治风险增加、小微盘拥挤度高位等 多重压力，建议规避短期波动，转向大盘风格，关注上证 50 和港股红 利方向。 短期内，能源链（油气、油运、油服，尤其油运）、大金融（优质区域 城商行、港股低估值保险、并购预期券商）及大众出行链受益于暑期旺 季和工作时长下降，值得关注。 创新药行情虽处筹码拥挤度三年最高点，但情绪仍有提升空间，本轮行 情仍有发展潜力，建议关注创业板创新药及科创板扩散方向。 美国 CPI 延续下行趋势，降息压力放缓，中美政策空间扩大，中期行情 不悲观。关注 FOMC 会议可能释放的降息信号，以及美债收益率的震荡 状态。 上证指数接近 3,400 点时，ETF 资金换手率下降，宽基 ETF 面临流出压 力。小盘股拥挤度高位回落预示全 A 股可能回调，需密切关注。 小盘股自 2024 年 7 月显著上涨，但随着微盘股拥挤度见顶回落，市场 风格或 ...

Group 1 - The global financial market experienced significant turmoil due to Iran launching over 150 missiles towards Israel, causing widespread panic and sell-offs [1][3] - European stock markets saw a sharp decline, with the German DAX index dropping significantly, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by over 700 points, equivalent to the GDP of a medium-sized city [3] - The U.S. stock market faced a massive outflow, with $9.8 billion redeemed from stock funds in a single week, marking the highest level of redemptions in 11 weeks [3] Group 2 - The Middle East is crucial for global energy supply, with Iran being the third-largest oil producer in OPEC; tensions in the region led to a 10% spike in international oil prices, pushing WTI crude oil above $77 per barrel [3] - The potential for a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 30% of the world's seaborne oil passes, could drive oil prices to $120 per barrel, posing a severe risk to the global economy [3] Group 3 - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that Trump's tariff policies could push U.S. inflation towards 3%, while the Federal Reserve may need to maintain its current stance due to rising inflation pressures [4] - The U.S. economy is facing recession risks, creating a precarious situation for the Federal Reserve as it navigates between inflation control and economic stability [4] Group 4 - The market has entered a "risk-averse" phase, with gold prices rising to $3,450 per ounce, indicating a shift towards safe-haven assets [5] - The IMF has warned of increased global financial stability risks, highlighting issues such as high leverage in hedge funds and sovereign debt problems, particularly with U.S. national debt reaching 123% of GDP [5]

Core Insights - Global gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.8 billion in May, ending a five-month streak of inflows, marking the first monthly outflow since November 2024 [1][3] - The total assets under management (AUM) for global gold ETFs decreased by 1% to $374 billion, with holdings dropping by 19 tons to 3,541 tons [1][2] Group 1: Regional Performance - North America led the outflows with a net withdrawal of $1.54 billion, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment due to a temporary easing of trade tensions and a strong stock market rebound, which reduced the demand for gold as a safe haven [2][3] - Asia saw a net outflow of $489.4 million, primarily driven by Chinese investors, as the easing of trade tensions and stock market recovery diminished the need for gold [4] - Europe was the only region to record inflows, with a modest increase of $225 million, largely attributed to stable inflows from France amid concerns over economic growth and political instability [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in May, coupled with cautious remarks regarding inflation and labor market risks, has led to expectations of sustained high rates, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - Despite the outflows, global gold ETF inflows for 2025 remain positive at $30 billion, with total holdings increasing by 322 tons since the beginning of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical crisis has put the traditional safe-haven status of the US dollar and US Treasuries to the test, with increasing skepticism about their reliability as safe assets [1][12]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Israel's airstrikes on Iranian targets, US Treasuries showed only a slight increase, and the dollar initially dropped instead of rising as expected for safe-haven assets [2][12]. - The volatility in the market was evident as the VIX index surged, global stock markets faced pressure, and oil prices spiked, while gold, another safe-haven asset, saw a strong rebound [1][6]. Group 2: Structural Issues with the Dollar - The dollar index has fallen approximately 8% this year, reflecting a loss of investor confidence in the US economic growth outlook due to various structural issues, including trade policies and fiscal deficits [13][14]. - Analysts suggest that the dollar's safe-haven status is being diluted by the US government's trade policies and challenges to the rule of law, leading to questions about its reliability [13][14]. Group 3: Shift in Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in capital flows away from US Treasuries towards hard assets like oil and metals, indicating a loss of confidence in sovereign debt as a risk-free haven [12][14]. - The current geopolitical tensions have led to a typical cross-asset reaction, with energy and gold prices rising sharply, while bond demand remains low [11][12].