Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.32%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.16% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 15,108 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,096 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] - Over 3,400 stocks in the market experienced declines, indicating a broad-based sell-off [2] Group 2 - Despite the Federal Reserve raising its inflation forecast, the lower interest rate expectations suggest a trend towards gradual monetary easing [2] - The market anticipates a more accommodative Federal Reserve post-2026, which raises concerns about long-term economic stagnation in the U.S. [2] - The structural demand for gold is supported by the ongoing trend of de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and the need for diversified investment portfolios, leading to a recommendation for buying gold on dips [2]

今日周五(9月19日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于9965一线上方，今日开盘于9910元/千克，截至发稿，白银期货暂报 9990元/千克，上涨0.83%，最高触及10038元/千克，最低下探9856元/千克，目前来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走 势。 【要闻速递】 周三，美联储自2022年12月以来首次降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4.75%-5.00%，并在声明中为进一 步宽松政策留下了空间。这本应是白银的利好信号，因为低利率环境往往放大白银的吸引力，让持有无息资产的成本 降低。 然而，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的表态却出人意料地将此次降息定性为"风险管理措施"，旨在应对劳动力市 场疲软的风险，但同时强调美联储"并不急于开始宽松"，并对顽固通胀发出警告。这种模棱两可的立场，让市场原本 对未来数月激进降息的预期瞬间冷却。 鲍威尔的言论如同一记闷棍，引发了市场的即时反应。 更值得注意的是，美联储的指引导致市场对未来路径的分歧加剧。高盛分析师认为，此次降息将是多次行动的开端， 暗示年底前可能累计降息近50个基点；反观澳新银行，则将鲍威尔的言论形容为"完全不算鸽派"，预示宽松节奏将放 缓。 周四， ...

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,640 per ounce, having declined due to profit-taking and market assessment of the Federal Reserve's stance on further rate cuts [1][3] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with expectations of additional cuts throughout the remainder of the year to address signs of a weakening labor market [3][4] - Gold has performed well in low-interest-rate environments, rising nearly 39% year-to-date, with a significant increase in Swiss gold exports to China, which surged by 254% in August compared to July [4] Group 2 - The U.S. job market is showing signs of softness, with initial jobless claims decreasing but overall labor supply and demand declining, leading to concerns about the economic outlook [1][4] - The market anticipates a further reduction in interest rates, with investors expecting an additional 44.2 basis points cut by the end of 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to a paradoxical rise in mortgage rates, a phenomenon that, while counterintuitive, is not uncommon in the market [1] Group 1: Mortgage Rates - As of Wednesday, mortgage rates have stabilized at 6.26%, marking the lowest level since early October 2024 [1] - Most of the data from Freddie Mac was collected prior to the Fed's rate cut, indicating a lag in the response of mortgage rates to changes in the Fed's policy [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Influence - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that while the Fed does not set mortgage rates, changes in their policy rates typically influence them [1] - The Fed officials anticipate two more rate cuts this year, although there is still disagreement regarding the short-term economic outlook [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - Zillow's senior economist Orphe Divounguy noted that the pace of monetary policy easing expected by financial markets may exceed the actual measures taken by the Fed, suggesting that mortgage rates are unlikely to decline significantly further [1]

Group 1 - The bond market has shown a weak and fluctuating trend since Q3 2025, with the ten-year government bond yield rising from approximately 1.63% to 1.78%, an increase of about 15 basis points [1][3][8] - The yield curve has exhibited a rare "bear steepening" characteristic, indicating changes in growth and inflation expectations influenced by commodity and stock market movements [7][8] - Credit bonds have performed relatively well, with the funding environment remaining loose since mid-year, and market leverage returning to historical average levels [1][8] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's policies are a key variable affecting the bond market, with expectations of multiple rate cuts in the second half of the year due to a weakening U.S. economy and a deteriorating labor market [1][9][14] - Domestic economic indicators, such as retail sales and fixed asset investment, have shown marginal weakness, with expectations that overall economic growth may fall below annual targets [1][20][24] - The "anti-involution" policy is being advanced towards legalization and marketization, which may have long-term implications for inflation and economic stability [1][28][29] Group 3 - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a valuable investment tool due to its low fees, transparency, and stable historical returns, making it a preferred choice for bond market allocation [2][35][39] - The ETF has consistently achieved positive returns from 2018 to 2024, making it suitable for long-term investment strategies [2][35] - The bond market's current yield levels are considered neutral to low, with limited downward space due to the central bank's stance, necessitating attention to the policy combination of "central bank easing + government bond issuance" [33][34]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【前美财长称美联储政策偏宽松，美最大风险是通胀】前美国财政部长表示，美联储政策正趋于过于宽 松，美国面临的最大风险是通胀，而非就业市场。他称综合金融状况，当前政策比人们认知的略宽松， 风险更偏向通胀。 此番言论在美联储一年来首次降息后发表。美联储主席称，降息反映风险平衡转 变，就业增长放缓等劳动力市场疲软迹象明显。 该财长强调，最大风险是偏离2%通胀目标，使美国沦 为通胀心理蔓延的国家。他还补充，货币政策及信号略显宽松，但本质是程度差异问题。 他表示，若 处于鲍威尔位置，最担心的就是通胀问题。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - Market expectations for further rate cuts have been strong, with over 90% probability for a September cut, and potential for three cuts in total this year [2] - The Fed's decision is seen as a "risk management" measure, with Powell indicating a cautious stance on rapid rate cuts, suggesting that market expectations for future rate paths may be overly optimistic [2] Group 2 - The rate cut is expected to enhance expectations for continued monetary easing in China, with potential for the People's Bank of China to lower rates and reserve requirements to support the economy [2] - Ordinary investors may see a shift in savings towards capital markets, with increased attractiveness of equity assets in China as deposit rates decline [3] - The depreciation of the US dollar and a shift towards global liquidity are expected to support the renminbi and other emerging market assets, making Chinese assets appealing [3] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to show higher elasticity due to its sensitivity to external liquidity, with historical data indicating an average increase of 35.4% in the Hang Seng Index within 12 months following a Fed rate cut [6] - The bond market is currently facing headwinds but is expected to benefit from a favorable external environment as the Fed resumes rate cuts, potentially widening the policy space for domestic monetary policy [6] - Gold has seen significant price increases, with a year-to-date rise exceeding 40%, and is expected to maintain an upward trend despite potential short-term volatility [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since 2025 and signaling the start of a new monetary easing cycle globally [2][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Rate Cut - The rate cut is primarily due to the persistent weakness in the U.S. labor market since May, reflecting a "preventive rate cut" characteristic as the Fed seeks to balance deteriorating employment and inflation pressures [5][6]. - The August non-farm payroll data showed only 22,000 new jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a sharp decline in job growth [5][6]. Group 2: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a possibility of two more rate cuts before the end of the year, with the Fed's dot plot indicating potential cuts in October and December, each by 25 basis points [7][10]. - The uncertainty surrounding inflation trends may complicate the rate cut process in the following year [7]. Group 3: Impact on China - The Fed's rate cut expands the space for monetary policy adjustments in China, indirectly affecting the Chinese stock and real estate markets through domestic macro policy changes [5][12]. - The potential for a passive appreciation of the RMB is noted, as the Fed's actions may reduce the extent of the U.S.-China interest rate differential [12][17]. Group 4: Global Market Implications - The rate cut is expected to support U.S. equities by reducing corporate financing costs, although the immediate impact may be limited due to prior market expectations [11][12]. - The global bond market is likely to benefit from increased liquidity, although the domestic bond market in China may not see significant changes due to its focus on local economic factors [15][16]. Group 5: Gold Market Outlook - The Fed's rate cut is viewed positively for international gold prices, which have already risen approximately 40% this year, with expectations of continued upward pressure due to geopolitical risks and the future trajectory of the U.S. dollar [19][20]. Group 6: Monitoring Future Economic Indicators - Key indicators to watch include U.S. inflation trends and China's export performance, which may influence future policy decisions and potential new stimulus measures [20].

9月18日早盘，恒生科技指数再度大幅上涨，盘中一度涨近2%，领涨港股关键指数，华虹半导体、 ASMPT、中芯国际、地平线机器人等强势领涨，百度、美团、同程旅行等跟涨。 湘财证券认为，受益于美联储降息带来的流动性助推效应，港股市场收益的确定性显著增强。科技股、 医药股对利率变化更为敏感，降息周期有望进一步提升其估值弹性。 美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4.00%~4.25%，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，当 前的降息举措是一项风险管理决策，没有必要快速调整利率。 受此消息影响，全球资本市场波动加剧。作为离岸市场，港股对全球资金流向变化具有高度敏感性，宽 松货币政策或直接提升港股市场流动性，吸引更多增量资金。 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The government is expected to issue more bonds next year due to ongoing economic pressures from September to the fourth quarter, with a focus on stabilizing growth [1] - The central bank's monetary policy is predicted to remain loose, but financial stability concerns may limit this, as the weighted net interest margin of commercial banks has dropped to 1.42%, below the ideal level of 1.8% [2][3] Group 2: Policy Outlook - The central bank is likely to restart bond purchases in the second half of the year to provide long-term liquidity, as other monetary policy tools cannot offer sufficient duration [3][4] - The combination of monetary easing and government bond issuance is expected to positively impact the economy around October [4] Group 3: Bond Market Analysis - The current yield levels in the bond market are considered low, with limited room for further declines due to financial stability concerns [3] - The recent increase in redemption fees for public funds may create structural pressure on long-term credit bonds, leading to potential issues with demand in the market [4] Group 4: Investment Tools - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted for its strong allocation value, being unaffected by new redemption fee regulations and offering low fees, transparency, and stable historical returns [5]