研究员：沈忱 CFA 期货从业证号：F3053225 投资咨询证号：Z0015885 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 国债期货周报：重要会议落地，盘面波动加大 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 第二部分 相关数据追踪 12 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 内容摘要 ◼【综合分析】 逻辑梳理：本周部分月度宏观数据密集公布，整体有喜有忧。其中金融数据方面，新型政策性金融工具带动企业部门融资需求上升是 最大亮点，但基数抬升等因素共同作用下，M1增速则继续放缓。相较于基本面数据而言，市场关注点更多集中在重要会议的内容上 。周四公布的中央经济工作会议通稿内容未超预期。财政政策方面，"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"的表述降低了明 年财政在"量"上大幅加码的概率。而货币政策适度宽松的基调不变，且将"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，明年政策利率调 降仍然可期。不过，周五上 ...

Economic Overview - In November, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month; month-on-month, it decreased by 0.1% [1][3] Price Changes by Category - Food, tobacco, and alcohol prices rose by 0.3% year-on-year, clothing prices increased by 1.9%, housing prices remained stable, and prices for daily necessities and services rose by 2.1%; transportation and communication prices fell by 2.3%, education, culture, and entertainment prices increased by 0.8%, healthcare prices rose by 1.6%, and prices for other goods and services surged by 14.2% [3] - Within food, tobacco, and alcohol prices, pork prices decreased by 15%, grain prices fell by 0.4%, fresh fruit prices increased by 0.7%, and fresh vegetable prices rose by 14.5%; the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 1.2% year-on-year [3] Industrial Producer Prices - In November, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%; the national industrial producer purchase price index fell by 2.5% year-on-year, also with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [3] - From January to November, the national industrial producer prices and purchase prices decreased by 2.7% and 3.1% year-on-year, respectively [3]

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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - policy in China is taking effect, and prices are showing positive changes. The upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference may have an impact. In the fundamentals, as the off - season approaches, downstream demand is weakening, and some steel mills are reducing production. The supply of five major steel products and the weekly output of rebar are decreasing. The demand for steel products is under pressure, and both building materials and plates are seeing a decline in consumption. The inventory of five major steel products is decreasing due to the rapid decline in supply. The raw material prices are under pressure due to reduced demand from steel mills, and the cost support is insufficient. The main rebar contract has shifted to the far - month contract, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Short - term operations are recommended [62][63] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Part 1: Rebar Futures Market Review 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The production index was 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating stable manufacturing production. The new order index was 49.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, showing improved market demand. The raw material inventory index was 47.3%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating a continued decrease in raw material inventories. The employment index was 48.4%, up 0.1 percentage points, showing a slight recovery in labor demand. The supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slightly faster delivery time. CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the increase mainly driven by the turnaround of food prices from a decline to an increase. In November 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, and the purchase price index decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. The month - on - month increase of both was 0.1% [11] - Policy information: In November, the National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to study and formulate standards for identifying costs in disorderly price competition. The December Central Economic Work Conference is upcoming [11] 1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - No specific trend content provided Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, Basis 2.1 Macro - Monetary Quantity - No relevant content provided 2.2 Macro - Monetary Price - No relevant content provided 2.3 Comparison - Domestic and Foreign - No relevant content provided 2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industrial Chain - The prices and price changes of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal in Shanghai and Qingdao are presented. For example, the price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) in Shanghai is 3,270 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.91%, a monthly increase of 1.55%, and an annual decline of 5.76% [25] - The basis data of rebar from November 21 to December 11, 2025, is provided. For example, on December 11, 2025, the futures price was 3069 yuan/ton, the delivery product price was 3230 yuan/ton, and the basis was 161 yuan/ton [27] Part 3: Rebar Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - No relevant content provided 3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (Various Steel Products) - No relevant content provided 3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Futures and Spot) - No relevant content provided 3.4 Blast Furnace Operation - No relevant content provided 3.5 Electric Furnace Profit - No relevant content provided 3.6 Electric Furnace Operation - No relevant content provided 3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - No relevant content provided 3.8 Weekly Steel Output - No relevant content provided 3.9 Weekly Rebar Output - No relevant content provided 3.10 Steel Mill Inventory of Steel Products - No relevant content provided 3.11 Social Inventory of Steel Products - No relevant content provided 3.13 Social Inventory of Rebar - No relevant content provided 3.14 Building Materials Transactions - No relevant content provided Part 4: Future Outlook - The macro - economic situation shows positive price changes. The off - season is coming, with weakening demand and some steel mills reducing production. The supply of five major steel products and rebar is decreasing. The consumption of building materials and plates is declining. The inventory of five major steel products is decreasing. The raw material prices are under pressure, and the cost support is insufficient. The main rebar contract is oscillating at a low level, and short - term operations are recommended [62][63]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends - In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Sichuan increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since February, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [2] - The decline in pork prices, which fell by 2.2% month-on-month, significantly impacted the CPI, as pork prices are typically higher during this season due to increased demand [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, maintaining an upward trend for nine consecutive months, driven by rising service prices and improved industrial consumer goods prices [3] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Sichuan decreased by 2.8% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, influenced by falling energy prices and weak demand [4] - Despite the overall decline in PPI, the non-ferrous metal industry showed positive performance, with prices increasing by 1.8% month-on-month and 6.0% year-on-year, attributed to strong demand from the new energy and electronics sectors [5] - The beverage manufacturing sector also experienced a slight increase, with prices rising by 0.1% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer support [5]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - In November, Guangdong's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [1] - The average CPI from January to November showed a decline of 0.2% compared to the same period last year [1] - Food prices rose by 0.3% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.06 percentage points to the CPI increase [1] - Service prices remained stable with a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, while industrial consumer goods prices rose by 0.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from October [1] - Notable increases in jewelry prices included gold (up 59.3%), platinum (up 55.1%), and silver (up 10.8%), collectively contributing about 0.24 percentage points to the CPI [1] - Clothing prices increased by 2.3%, while prices for fuel and new energy vehicles decreased by 4.1% and 4.9%, respectively [1] - Energy prices fell by 3.3%, with gasoline prices down 7.6%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.28 percentage points [1] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Analysis - In November, Guangdong's Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [2] - The Industrial Producer Price Index (IPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 2.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [2] - From January to November, the average PPI fell by 1.5%, while the IPI decreased by 2.9% [2] - Among 38 major industries surveyed, 10 experienced price increases, 25 saw declines, and 3 remained stable, indicating an industry increase rate of 26.3%, which is a 5.2 percentage point increase from October [2] - Prices for production materials decreased by 2.2%, while living materials saw a decline of 0.6%, with the latter's decline remaining stable compared to October [2] - In terms of month-on-month changes, 16 industries increased prices, 14 decreased, and 8 remained stable, maintaining an industry increase rate of 42.1% [2] - The decline in oil prices affected the petrochemical sector, leading to a 0.8% price drop, while the rise in gold prices boosted prices in the cultural and sports goods manufacturing sector by 2.9% [2] - The black metal mining sector saw a price increase of 2.7% due to adjustments in steel production capacity and increased demand, while the black metal smelting and rolling industry rose by 1.5% [2] - The non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry experienced a 1.7% price increase due to tight copper supply and rising demand from emerging industries [2] - Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing prices rose by 0.3% due to increased raw material costs, while computer manufacturing prices increased by 1.6% driven by AI server demand [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the year-on-year increase in CPI was mainly driven by a sharp rebound in fresh vegetable prices, while PPI remained weak year-on-year. The unexpected rebound in exports may be due to factors such as the suppression of the base effect in October, Christmas stocking in Europe and the United States, and improvements in Sino-US tariffs. The structure of foreign trade exports continued to improve, with diversification results becoming prominent, and high-end manufacturing becoming the core driving force for exports [2]. - The economy still faces certain pressures. Although there is growth in durable goods and service consumption supported by policies on the consumer side, the structural differentiation of CPI and the mild rebound of core CPI reflect that the overall consumer willingness of residents still needs to be boosted. Exports rebounded unexpectedly in November, and the trade structure continued to improve. Affected by the high base of pre - emptive exports in the first half of this year, the resilience of foreign trade growth next year needs to be continuously observed. The 75BP interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year have brought changes in global liquidity, and overseas trade frictions may still continuously disrupt export expectations. Against the backdrop of the intertwining of internal and external factors, the probability of the introduction of growth - stabilizing policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation effects of policies and the improvement signals of prices and foreign trade [3]. - The performance of the bond market in 2026 is expected to be better than expected. Since the second half of the year, the bond market has often deviated from the fundamentals and is mainly dominated by institutional behavior. From the perspective of the domestic fundamentals, the domestic economic data is under pressure, and the necessity of lowering the policy interest rate has significantly increased. From the external environment, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 75BP, and the inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread has been significantly relieved. Currently, the yield of long - term bonds has reached a high point this year. Under the dual effects of internal and external factors, the probability of a successful long - position strategy is relatively high [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Situation - In November, CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest level since March 2024. Food prices turned from a decline of 2.9% last month to an increase of 0.2%, while non - food prices rose by 0.8% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months [2]. - Food prices "turning from negative to positive" were the core driving force. Fresh vegetable prices rose by 14.5% year - on - year, with the impact on the year - on - year increase of CPI increasing by about 0.49 percentage points. The year - on - year decline in pork prices narrowed to - 15.0%, and the prices of beef and mutton increased. Energy prices had a greater drag, with energy prices falling by 3.4% year - on - year [2]. - There was a structural differentiation in core CPI. On the industrial consumer goods side, the year - on - year increase in gold jewelry prices expanded to 58.4%, and clothing prices rose by 2.0%, but household appliance prices decreased. On the service side, although the demand for post - holiday travel declined, the prices of domestic services and dining out still maintained positive growth [2]. PPI Situation - In November, PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points. Production materials decreased by 2.4% year - on - year, and living materials decreased by 1.5% year - on - year. PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, maintaining positive growth for two consecutive months [2]. - Domestic policies and seasonal demand supported upstream prices. The start of "peak - winter power consumption" in November led to a surge in coal demand, and the prices of coal mining and washing and coal processing increased significantly month - on - month. The effects of comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition were evident, and the year - on - year decline in prices of some industries continued to narrow [2]. - Input factors showed a differentiated pattern. The increase in international non - ferrous metal prices drove up the prices of domestic non - ferrous metal mining and smelting industries, while the decline in international oil prices led to a decline in the prices of the oil and gas extraction and refined petroleum product industries [2]. - The seasonal decline in downstream demand for infrastructure restricted the overall ex - factory prices. The prices of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, reflecting the weakening of infrastructure demand. Most industries' ex - factory prices were still under significant pressure year - on - year, but non - ferrous metal industries performed well [2][3]. Foreign Trade Situation - In November, the total value of imports and exports was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%, turning from negative to positive compared with October. Imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%, continuing the six - month growth trend. The trade structure continued to have the characteristics of "strong exports and stable imports" [3]. - Trade with the EU and Africa rebounded significantly, while the decline in exports to the US continued to expand. Exports to ASEAN maintained double - digit growth. Exports to the EU rebounded strongly, and exports to Africa had a high growth rate. Although the decline in exports to the US expanded, the drag on overall exports was offset by the growth of the EU and African markets [3]. - This month's unexpected export growth was mainly affected by the rebound in export growth to the EU and Africa. High - end manufacturing became the core driving force for the rebound. Exports of mechanical and electrical products and high - tech products increased significantly year - on - year, while the growth rates of labor - intensive products were still in the decline range [3].

Macro and Strategy Research - CPI in November 2025 shows a significant increase in vegetable and gold prices, while travel chain prices decline due to seasonal demand drop and OPEC+ production increases affecting energy prices [2] - The forecast for December indicates CPI growth around 0.5% year-on-year, with an expected annual CPI growth of approximately 0% for 2025 [3] - PPI in November 2025 shows an expanded year-on-year decline, with a stable month-on-month increase, driven by seasonal demand in coal and gas, and a narrowing decline in prices for solar equipment and lithium-ion battery manufacturing [3] A-Share Market Investment Strategy - The A-share market continues to exhibit a volatile characteristic, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.06% and the ChiNext Index up by 3.14% over the past five trading days [4] - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with a notable recovery in exports to Japan, South Korea, and the EU, indicating an ongoing optimization of export structure [5] - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes a proactive macro policy for 2026, focusing on building a strong domestic market and fostering new growth drivers [5] Industry Research - The approval for NVIDIA to sell H200 AI chips to China is expected to alleviate supply issues for domestic cloud computing firms, while domestic chip companies are likely to accelerate product development through financing [7][8] - Alibaba's establishment of the Qianwen C-end business group aims to create a "super app," indicating a strategic push towards AI applications in consumer-facing products [7] - The investment opportunities in the TMT sector and robotics are highlighted due to ongoing capital expansion by domestic and international cloud vendors and the anticipated growth in AI application demand [6]

CPI Analysis - In November 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, marking the highest level since March 2024[4] - The CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, primarily influenced by non-food prices[4] - Food prices turned positive, contributing positively to the CPI, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 14.5%[15] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained stable at a 1.2% year-on-year increase, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months[15] PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with a slight widening of the decline by 0.1 percentage points[12] - Month-on-month, PPI increased by 0.1%, marking two consecutive months of growth[20] - Key sectors such as black metal mining and coal mining saw a narrowing of price declines, while oil extraction and processing experienced expanded price drops[22] Economic Policy Implications - The low CPI and PPI levels create room for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including increased fiscal measures and moderate monetary easing[5] - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need for stronger counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to promote effective qualitative and reasonable quantitative economic growth[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-U.S. policies[6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the improvement in inflation data for November, highlighting the trends in CPI and PPI, and outlines key macroeconomic price clues for the upcoming year [2][4][9]. Group 1: November Inflation Data - CPI year-on-year increased from 0.2% to 0.7%, meeting expectations, while core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, maintaining a high level since 2022 [2][9]. - PPI year-on-year decreased from -2.1% to -2.2%, with expectations of -2%, indicating a continued decline influenced by high base effects [2][9]. - The GDP deflator for November is estimated at around -0.4%, slightly better than the previous month's estimate of -0.5% [2][9]. Group 2: Key Factors Influencing CPI - The significant rise in CPI is primarily driven by food prices, which increased by 0.5% month-on-month, contrasting with a decline of -2.7% in the same month last year [2][9]. - Seasonal factors have positively impacted fresh vegetable prices, which rose by 7.2% due to adverse weather conditions affecting production and transportation [2][9]. - Core CPI's stability is attributed to the continuous rise in medical service prices, which have increased for eight consecutive months, and the impact of rising gold prices [2][9]. Group 3: PPI Trends - PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month for two consecutive months, driven by seasonal demand in coal and gas industries [3][30]. - The input factors have led to a decline in domestic oil-related industry prices while prices in the non-ferrous sector have risen [3][30]. - The equipment manufacturing sector shows signs of marginal improvement, with computer and communication electronics prices rising by 0.1% [3][30]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Price Clues for Next Year - CPI is expected to show a confirmed upward trend next year, with projections indicating a year-on-year increase of approximately 0.7% [4][10]. - PPI is also anticipated to recover, although the timing for a positive shift remains uncertain, with a projected year-on-year average of -1.4% [4][10]. - The improvement in the supply-demand relationship in the midstream equipment manufacturing sector is crucial for stabilizing PPI [4][15]. Group 5: Potential Risks and Opportunities - The potential upward risk for CPI includes improvements in service sector price increases, particularly if consumer subsidy policies expand to service consumption [5][12]. - The midstream equipment manufacturing sector's supply-demand dynamics are critical, as historical patterns suggest a lag of 6-7 quarters before PPI prices stabilize after supply growth falls below demand growth [4][15].