Macro Economic Overview - The progress of the "old-for-new" subsidy program reached approximately 42% in May, indicating a significant impact on consumer spending [3][4] - Retail sales in May showed a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, driven by the "618" shopping festival and the ongoing effects of the "old-for-new" policy [24][25] - Industrial production maintained a high growth rate of 5.8% year-on-year in May, although the supply-demand structure remains suboptimal [5] Industry Insights Chemical Industry - Polyester bottle chip factories have announced production cuts of about 20%, which may lead to a recovery in processing margins [18][19] - The average operating load of domestic polyester bottle chip facilities is expected to decline from 94.3% in May to around 77% due to these production adjustments [19][21] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from a steady recovery in consumer demand, with retail sales growth in May exceeding expectations [24][25] - The white liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, while the snack sector shows strong growth potential due to channel innovation and product diversification [28] Electric Power Equipment and New Energy - The European electric vehicle market is experiencing a recovery, with May sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 36.2% year-on-year [40][42] - The Chinese low-altitude economy is gaining traction, with significant government support and new projects being signed, indicating potential growth in this sector [30][33] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The USDA has raised global production estimates for corn, rice, and wheat, while maintaining soybean production forecasts, reflecting a positive outlook for agricultural commodities [35][36][37][38] Banking Sector - The banking sector is cautiously optimistic about retail risks, with the transition period for new regulations approaching, which may impact asset quality [46][47] - The overall non-performing loan ratio remains stable, but there are concerns about rising risks in small and micro enterprises and retail businesses [46][48]

Group 1: Economic Resilience - In May, industrial production year-on-year growth decreased from 6.1% to 5.8%, maintaining a high growth rate, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61%[1] - Government bond net financing reached 6.3 trillion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year[1] - M2 and social financing balances maintained year-on-year growth rates of 7.9% and 8.7%, respectively, indicating strong monetary support[1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Total infrastructure investment year-on-year growth decreased from 10.9% to 10.4%, still above the 2024 annual rate of 9.2%[2] - Manufacturing investment year-on-year growth was 8.5%, slightly down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, but still at a high level[2] - Public utility investment, including electricity, grew by 25.4% year-on-year, while water conservancy investment increased by 7.2%[2] Group 3: Real Estate Market - Real estate investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The area of newly started construction decreased by 22.8% year-on-year, indicating significant contraction in the sector[2] - The price index for second-hand homes in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, with the decline widening compared to the previous month[2] Group 4: Consumer Spending - In May, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%[3] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumption, with home appliance and audio-visual equipment sales increasing by 53% year-on-year[3] - Social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 2.05 trillion yuan, indicating robust financial support for the economy[3]

Economic Resilience - In May, industrial production year-on-year growth decreased from 6.1% to 5.8%, maintaining a high growth rate, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61%[1] - Domestic demand is effectively supporting industrial production as external demand gradually declines, with export growth rates of 8.1% and 4.8% in April and May respectively[9] - The government issued a net financing of 6.3 trillion yuan in bonds in the first five months, an increase of 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year, supporting economic stability[9] Investment Trends - Total infrastructure investment growth rate decreased from 10.9% to 10.4% in the first five months, still above the 2024 annual target of 9.2%[2] - Manufacturing investment year-on-year growth is at 8.5%, slightly down from the previous month, with equipment investment growing at 17.3%[2] - Real estate investment fell by 10.7%, with housing starts down 22.8% and sales area down 2.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing market challenges[2] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year in May, surpassing the market expectation of 4.9%[3] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumption, contributing an estimated 3 trillion yuan in sales in May alone[3] - Home appliance and audio-visual equipment sales surged by 53% year-on-year, driven by government subsidies[3] Financial Support - New social financing reached 2.29 trillion yuan in May, exceeding expectations and last year's figures, indicating strong financial support for the economy[3] - M2 money supply growth remained high at 7.9%, while social financing balance growth was at 8.7%[3] - There is still over 900 billion yuan of issuance space for special government bonds aimed at stabilizing growth, which will continue to support the "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives[3]

Group 1 - The effectiveness of fiscal policy is beginning to show, but revenue is still below budget targets. The general public budget revenue for the first four months was 8.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.4%, which is lower than the previous year's growth of 1.3% and the initial budget target of 0.1% [4][5][26] - Monthly improvements in revenue are observed, with April's revenue growth turning positive at 1.9%. The revenue completion rate for the first four months was 36.7%, slightly below the average of the past five years [4][6] - Government expenditure has exceeded targets, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% for the first four months, surpassing the budget target of 4.4%. The expenditure completion rate reached 31.5%, the highest since 2020 [6][9] Group 2 - The narrow fiscal deficit for the first four months reached 1.3 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period, with a usage rate of 16.8%, significantly above the average of 12% over the past five years [13][14] - The issuance of government bonds has been accelerated, contributing to a rapid usage of the narrow deficit. The net financing of ordinary government bonds reached 1.9 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.4% of the annual central deficit target [14][18] - Special bonds have seen a slower issuance pace, with a completion rate of 37.1% for the first five months, which is higher than the previous year but lower than the levels seen in 2022 and 2023 [18][19] Group 3 - There is a potential need for incremental support, with a projected revenue gap of approximately 550 billion yuan for 2025. If revenue performance does not improve, there may be a possibility of increasing government debt quotas [3][26] - Special bonds are expected to be a focus for fiscal efforts in the second half of the year, with an anticipated increase in funds for land reserves, which could alleviate liquidity pressures for real estate companies [27][31] - New policy financial tools are expected to be implemented in the second half of the year, aimed at supporting investment in urban renewal and various infrastructure projects [33]

以旧换新资金进度约 42% 宏观研究团队 ——兼评 5 月经济数据 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 2025 年 06 月 17 日 chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524020002 消费：以旧换新继续显效，测算 5 月补贴资金进度约 42% 1、5 月社零超预期，以旧换新继续显效，汽车抹去负贡献。5 月社零当月同比 大幅上行 1.3 个百分点至 6.4%，贡献拆解显示，限上商品、限下商品、限上餐 饮、限下餐饮分别贡献了 0.56、0.68、0.03、0.03 个百分点。限上商品具体来看： 以旧换新继续显效，家用电器、通讯器材分别贡献 0.27、0.20 个百分点；石油、 药品略有走弱；汽车对社零的边际贡献从 4 月的-0.5 个百分点转正至 0.03 个百 分点，可能导致市场线性递推、对 5 月社零预期不高。 2、测算 5 月以旧换新资金进度约 42%。根据商务部数据，2024 年消费品以旧 换新带动相关产品销售额超过 1.3 万亿元、对应中央补贴超过 1500 亿元，则比 例约为 8.7：1。以相同比例推算，截至 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人| 侯倩楠 报告正文 2. 政策高频：深入推进深圳综合改革试点 2.1 国务院办公厅：深入推进深圳综合改革试点 6月10日，中办、国办印发《关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点深化改革创新扩大开放的意见》，将从统 筹推进教育科技人才体制机制一体改革、推进金融、技术、数据等赋能实体经济高质量发展、建设更高水平 开放型经济新体制、健全科学化、精细化、法治化治理模式四个方面推进改革。广东将通过支持深圳建设一 批高水平高校、深化数据交易规则以及场景探索、支持前海高标准建设现代服务业集聚区、支持深圳推进放 宽市场准入特别措施等举措，全力以赴支持深圳的改革探索。 2.2 中办、国办：进一步保障和改善民生 6月9日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《关于进一步保障和改善民生，着力解决群众急难愁盼的 意见》。围绕民生保障，《意见》强调增强社会保障公平性，提出有效扩大社会保障覆盖面、加强低收入群 体兜底帮扶等政策举措。围绕公平性，《意见》强调提高基本公共服务均衡性，提出全方位提高基本公共服 务质效、推行由常住地提供基本公共服务等政策举措。围绕民生服务普惠性方面，《意见 ...

分析人士指出，"以旧换新"等政策支持与"618"购物节的提前启动形成合力，共同推动了5月社零的快速增长。国家统计局数据显示，5月限额以上 单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。 东吴证券分析师芦哲表示，社零超预期，一部分原因在于提前启动的"618 购物节"和"国补"叠加，另一部分原因可能在于"抢国补"。"5-6月诸多地 区传出国补暂停的说法，尽管很多省份进行辟谣，但可能还是有不少消费者在此期间抢时间购买以旧换新产品。"芦哲在研报中写道。 记者 王珍 5月中国经济运行总体平稳，虽然投资继续放缓，但消费零售表现亮眼，工业生产也较有韧性。分析人士预计，二季度GDP同比增速有望继续达到 5%以上。 但他们同时指出，国内需求扩大内生动能尚需增强，叠加下半年外贸环境不确定性仍在，稳增长政策进一步发力的概率相对上升。监管层或在三 季度推出新一轮增量政策，以进一步激发市场活力。 5月份一系列数据中，社零表现尤为亮眼。当月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，比上月加快1.3个百分点，创2024年初以来的最高水平。 国家统计局数据显示，1-5 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人| 侯倩楠 报告正文 2. 政策高频：深入推进深圳综合改革试点 2.1 国务院办公厅：深入推进深圳综合改革试点 6月10日，中办、国办印发《关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点深化改革创新扩大开放的意见》，将从统 筹推进教育科技人才体制机制一体改革、推进金融、技术、数据等赋能实体经济高质量发展、建设更高水平 开放型经济新体制、健全科学化、精细化、法治化治理模式四个方面推进改革。广东将通过支持深圳建设一 批高水平高校、深化数据交易规则以及场景探索、支持前海高标准建设现代服务业集聚区、支持深圳推进放 宽市场准入特别措施等举措，全力以赴支持深圳的改革探索。 2.2 中办、国办：进一步保障和改善民生 6月9日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《关于进一步保障和改善民生，着力解决群众急难愁盼的 意见》。围绕民生保障，《意见》强调增强社会保障公平性，提出有效扩大社会保障覆盖面、加强低收入群 体兜底帮扶等政策举措。围绕公平性，《意见》强调提高基本公共服务均衡性，提出全方位提高基本公共服 务质效、推行由常住地提供基本公共服务等政策举措。围绕民生服务普惠性方面，《意见 ...

封面新闻记者 杨芮雯 6月15日，中央广播电视总台《美好生活大调查》"美好生活城市之夜"数据发布活动在安徽省合肥市揭晓榜单，成都获"美好消费典范城市"荣誉。 今年伊始，成都消费市场呈现出蓬勃发展的态势。一方面，传统零售与餐饮行业保持着稳健的增长势头；另一方面，新兴消费业态如雨后春笋般迅速崛 起。同时，成都的消费场景愈发丰富多样，充分满足了各类消费者的个性化需求。这些因素共同为成都荣获"美好消费典范城市"称号提供了坚实有力的支 撑。 游客在铁像寺水街坐着小船看电影。图片由成都高新区提供 成都获"美好消费典范城市" 2024年社会消费品零售总额超万亿 消费，既是经济增长最基础、最稳定、最持久的动力，也是人民对美好生活需要的直接体现。 作为西部消费中心城市、全国第二个社会消费品零售总额突破一万亿元的盛会城市，官方数据显示，2024年，成都实现社会消费品零售总额10327.1亿 元，比上年增长3.3%。按消费类型分，商品零售8393.4亿元，增长2.6%；餐饮收入1933.7亿元，增长6.2%。 这一成绩，在全国排名表现亮眼。6月15日，中央广播电视总台《美好生活大调查》"美好生活城市之夜"数据发布活动在安徽省合肥市 ...

随着以旧换新政策持续显效，绿色、智能、高品质产品的消费需求持续释放，带动了生产增长。数据显 示，5月份，新能源汽车、平板电脑、电动自行车等换新类产品的产量分别增长31.7%、30.9%和 20.5%。无论是汽车、家电产品，还是数码产品、家装厨卫，背后都能见到产业向"新"的力量。通过产 品创新，开发更多迎合消费者需求的产品，让更多高质量的消费品走入寻常百姓家，实现产业与消费之 间的良性互动。 最后，消费品以旧换新激发潜在消费需求，消费市场出现积极变化。 "市场销售明显回升，以旧换新相关商品快速增长。"在6月16日举行的国新办新闻发布会上，国家统计 局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖如是说。 实施消费品以旧换新，对提振消费、扩大国内需求具有重要作用。今年以来，多地以旧换新政策持续加 力，有效激发市场活力，成为促进经济增长与提升民生福祉的"金钥匙"。在笔者看来，用好以旧换新这 把"金钥匙"，具有多重意义。 首先，消费品以旧换新持续发力，换出消费新活力和经济增长新动能。 今年，我国加力"扩围"实施消费品以旧换新。比如，首次实施手机、平板、智能手表（手环）3类数码 产品购新补贴政策；将8大类家电以旧换新产品扩围 ...