Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market in the first half of 2025 is characterized by a subdued atmosphere, with supply exceeding demand, leading to a downward trend in prices [2][3]. Supply and Demand Overview - Global lithium resource capacity is projected to reach 1.9-1.95 million tons (LCE equivalent) in 2025, with actual production around 1.6-1.65 million tons, resulting in a surplus of approximately 200,000 tons [3]. - Domestic lithium carbonate monthly demand increased to 88,000 tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 44.4%, indicating a robust demand despite external tariff disruptions [4]. - The production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles reached 5.699 million and 5.608 million units respectively from January to May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 45.2% and 44% [3]. Price Trends and Cost Analysis - The average price of lithium carbonate has been on a downward trajectory, with the decline rate slowing down as inventory levels decrease [4]. - Current lithium carbonate prices are near the breakeven point, prompting some lithium salt manufacturers to limit production since May, which has temporarily slowed the market's downward trend [8]. - If lithium carbonate prices drop to 50,000 yuan per ton, the corresponding lithium resource supply capacity would be around 1.2 million tons, which may not meet the demand even with existing inventories [8][10]. Market Disruptions and Future Outlook - Potential disruptions in the lithium market include environmental and geopolitical constraints affecting projects in Eastern Europe, Bolivia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo [14]. - The production enthusiasm for new lithium salt projects in Argentina may remain below expectations due to high profit forecasts [15]. - The acceleration of profit localization in Zimbabwe could undermine the cost advantages of African lithium mines [16]. - The market may continue to face pressure in the third quarter of 2025, but prices approaching 55,000 yuan may lead some upstream mining companies to reconsider their production strategies [18].

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2509 合约跌 0.17%至 60060 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价维持 60450 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价维持 58850 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下跌 250 元/吨至 59170 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）跌 250 元/吨至 64320 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存减少 10 吨 至 29957 吨。 2. 供应端，周度产量环比增加 335 吨至 18462 吨，其中增量主要为锂辉石提锂，锂云母提锂、盐湖提 锂小幅增加，回收提锂小幅减少；6 月产量供应环比增速明显。需求端，碳酸锂实际消耗量环比小 幅增加。库存端，周度库存周度增加 1352 吨至 134901 吨，其中上游增加 972 吨至 58265 吨，下游 减少 320 吨至 40366 吨，中间环节增加 700 吨至 35910 吨。综合来看，需要考虑的是，一方面，当 前矿山端并未有新的停减产动作，同时，从国内排产来看，6 月过剩格局将 ...

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 6 月 20 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 东莞菜油贸易商报价：东莞三菜 09+50 （6 月），一菜 09+230（6 月）。华 东市场豆油基差价格：一豆：现货： ...

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 20 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/06/20 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 红枣期货上涨原因剖析？ 2025年6月19日，红枣期货主力合约大幅上涨，引发市场广泛关注。此次上涨主要由两方面因素推 动。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从基本面来看，天气因素是关键。南疆灰枣枣树处于盛花期和坐果期，像和田市高温达37.7℃ ，持 续高温易导致落花落果现象，可能造成新季产量减少。市场担忧供应紧张，推动期货价格企稳反弹， 尽管产区已开始环割缓解风险，但后续高温仍可能加剧减产预期。 在市场层面，郑商所的政策调整发挥了作用。交易所宣布自6月20日起，将红枣期货合约交易保证金 比例下调至9%，涨跌停板幅度调整为8%。这一政策降低了投资者交易成本，吸引更多资金流入市场， 刺激了市场的投机氛围。 不过，当前红枣市场也存在抑制因素。随着天气转热，时令鲜果上市，替代了红枣等滋补类产品。 当下处于红枣需求季节性淡季，库存消 ...

2025.06. 19 潮玩二手交易平台千岛app显示，近2个月内，Labubu3.0系列的成交价呈直线上升，6月16日到达 最高点，近两日有所回落。 随之冷静的还有泡泡玛特的股价。截至6月19日17时，泡泡玛特当日跌超5%。在此之前的很长一段 时间内，泡泡玛特的股价一直高歌猛进。今年3月至6月中旬，泡泡玛特股价涨幅达100%。而从 2024年初至今，泡泡玛特的股价涨幅超过了11倍。 6月18日，泡泡玛特THE MONSTERS前方高能系列-搪胶毛绒挂件盲盒（LABUBU 3.0系列）在泡 泡玛特官方商城小程序等渠道补货，有不少消费者在社交平台表示自己抢到了。 本次Labubu 3.0系列的最长预售期至今年9月22日，这意味着消费者的等待时间可能长达三个月。 即使如此，小程序由于抢购人数太多，系统出现过卡顿。 一位泡泡玛特内部人士告诉第一财经记者："近期Labubu前方高能系列在全球收获超高热度，各个 城市的消费者反响热烈，但我们也注意到了不少影响消费者购物体验的不良行为，给真心喜爱IP的粉 丝带来了困扰。为了避免影响普通消费者的购物体验，我们进行了发售环节的优化，正式开启线上预 售，让更多人能够买到Labu ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic antimony price has experienced a significant increase, with the average price of antimony concentrate reaching 172,800 yuan per ton by the end of May 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 113.3% [2][6]. Price Trends - Antimony prices have been on a rapid upward trend since mid-February 2025, with continuous increases in March and sustained high levels in May [2]. - As of the end of May, the average price of antimony ingots was 194,500 yuan per ton, up 100.7% year-on-year, with a peak price of 240,000 yuan per ton [7]. - The average price of antimony oxide reached 174,800 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 103.6% [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The antimony market has been characterized by tight supply since early 2025, with a notable rebound in prices from mid-February to mid-April [6][12]. - Exports of antimony products have significantly declined, with no exports of antimony ore and a 59.3% decrease in antimony oxide exports from January to April [13]. - Imports of antimony concentrate also fell by 28.26% during the same period, indicating a tightening supply situation domestically [15]. Future Outlook - The domestic antimony market is expected to continue experiencing high prices due to ongoing supply constraints and reduced imports [16][18]. - The demand for antimony is supported by growth in key downstream applications, particularly in synthetic rubber, solar cells, and electric vehicles, which have all seen double-digit growth [16]. - The overall economic environment, including the impact of protectionist trade policies, is anticipated to influence the antimony market, but China's manufacturing sector has shown resilience with a recovery in the PMI [19].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations due to potential tariff reductions on imports from Canada, leading to a significant drop in U.S. spot aluminum premiums by over 7% [1]. Group 1: Market Data - According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global primary aluminum production is projected to reach 6.0912 million tons and consumption at 5.8649 million tons by April 2025, resulting in a surplus of 226,300 tons [1]. - From January to April 2025, global primary aluminum production totaled 24.2523 million tons, while consumption was 23.2412 million tons, indicating a surplus of 1.0111 million tons [1]. - China's imports of aluminum ore and concentrates in May 2025 reached 17.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, with total imports from January to May at 85.18 million tons, up 33.1% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures notes that while aluminum inventories are at historical lows, supporting prices, domestic demand is entering a slow season with reduced orders, leading to short-term price fluctuations with medium-term downside risks [2]. - Hualian Futures highlights that recent improvements in the supply of alumina have kept prices weak, while the cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline. Despite stable supply, the downstream aluminum processing sector is experiencing a pronounced off-season, with both domestic and export orders declining [2]. - The overall supply pressure remains manageable due to high smelting operating rates, and low inventories suggest a continued strong performance in the near term. The recommendation is to maintain a rolling long position with a reference support level of 20,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum [2].

去年以来，我市持续落实"构建房地产发展新模式，推动房地产高质量发展"有关要求，充分释放我市房地产政策工具箱，从土地保障、加大金融信贷和公 积金贷款支持力度、落实税收优惠政策、购房补贴、人才"购房券"、加快筹集保障性住房和加大城市更新力度等方面出台了系列政策措施，更好满足住房 消费需求。6月18日，我市保持房地产市场平稳健康发展工作领导小组办公室发布《关于进一步促进房地产市场平稳健康发展若干措施的通知》，提出八条 政策措施，持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。 举办夏季购房促销活动。活动期间，对个人购买中山区、西岗区、沙河口区、甘井子区参展楼盘的商品房，给予100元/平方米补贴。各地区结合本地区实 际，通过出台支持政策、开展团购活动、发放购房补贴等形式同步开展促销活动。 发挥公积金支持人才购房作用。已取得全日制本科学历与学士学位的高校毕业生、经过认定的我市城市发展紧缺人才，在单位正常缴存住房公积金，使用 个人住房公积金贷款在我市购买自住住房的，单人或双人最高贷款额度在当期最高贷款额度基础上提高20万元，贷款额度不受借款人贷款申请时住房公积 金账户存储余额倍数限制。 强化土地要素支撑。支持提前交付土地开发建设，对于已缴纳 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic corn prices have shown a strong upward trend since late May, driven by reduced imports and weather concerns affecting new season yields [1][2][12] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The significant decline in imports of corn and its substitutes (wheat, barley, sorghum) has altered the domestic supply structure, shifting from a previously loose supply-demand balance to a tighter one [2][3] - From January to April, China's total grain and grain powder imports fell to 7.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 68.8%, with corn imports dropping by 95.1% to only 440,000 tons [2] - The reduction in imports is attributed to changes in agricultural import policies, international trade relations, and adjustments in domestic crop planting structures [2][3] Group 2: Price Support Factors - The implementation of the minimum purchase price for wheat in Henan has provided support for corn prices, leading to increased buying and stockpiling behavior among traders [6][7] - The current high levels of pig inventory and the initiation of state pork purchases are expected to sustain long-term demand for corn [1][11] Group 3: Weather and Crop Conditions - Despite dry weather conditions in key corn-producing regions, the overall planting progress for summer grains is ahead of previous years, with corn planting continuing smoothly [8][9] - The ongoing drought has raised concerns about the quality and yield of the new corn season, particularly in areas with poor irrigation infrastructure [8][10] Group 4: Future Outlook - Market participants anticipate a gradual increase in domestic corn prices, driven by ongoing buying enthusiasm for both corn and wheat [12] - However, the potential for significant price increases may be limited due to substantial existing inventories of domestic and imported corn, as well as abundant stocks of domestic rice [12]