| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 一季度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，国内现货价格表现抗跌。节日 期间最新更新巴西及阿根廷大豆地区降雨依然低于正常水平。1 月美农报告公布临 | | 豆粕 | | 近，市场预计单产会有下调，昨日最新美豆周度出口数据同比继续下降，但下降幅 | | | 短线整理 | | | ★ | | 度有很大缓解，难以对美豆构成进一步利空打压。1 月报告公布前，叠加南美天气 | | | | 仍有波动，美豆止跌整理反弹走势。昨日豆粕跟随外盘收涨。关注美豆出口数据、 | | | | 1 月美农报告及南美天气情况。 | | 菜粕 | | 菜粕现货库存压力缓解，比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。但加拿大总理中旬面临 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 访华，削弱市场看多情绪。菜粕以跟随豆粕为主。关注 1 月美农报告、澳籽压榨和 | | | | 进口政策、中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 马棕榈油 12 月库存预计仍会累库，叠加本月前 5 日出口数据不佳，棕榈油短线预 | | ★ | 短线震荡整理 | 计承压暂维持震荡。但由于减产季来临 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 07 日 纸浆：震荡偏强 20260107 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.612 | 5, 530 | +82 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.614 | 5.544 | +70 | | | | 成交量(手) | 374.040 | 223. 450 | +150. 590 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量(手) | 220, 737 | 213, 721 | +7.016 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 131, 054 | 115. 576 | +15, 478 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -23.717 | -23.560 | -157 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | -12 | 70 | -82 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -892 | -830 | -62 | | | 月差 ...

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| | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6448 | 6400 | 48 | PF01-02 | -84 | -62 | -22 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6532 | 6462 | 70 | PF02-03 | 0 | -56 | 56 | | | 短纤2603 | 6532 | 6518 | 14 | PF主力基差 | 3 | 53 | -50 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 165849 | 173239 | -7390 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 535 | 6.515 | 20 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 131998 | 153152 | -21154 | 短纤产销率 | 77% | 53% | 24% | | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 瓶片2601 | 0 | 5810 | -5810 | PR01-02 | -6066 | -132 | -5.934 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and it's advisable to wait and see for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Cautiously holding long positions for copper, strengthening observation for aluminum, suggesting waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, silver, and expecting lithium carbonate to move in a range [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; temporarily waiting and seeing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to be weakly volatile [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish on cotton and cotton yarn, apple, with jujube expected to rebound from the bottom [1] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Short - term shorting on rallies for near - month hog contracts and cautiously bullish on far - month contracts; current 02 egg contracts can be hedged on rallies for breeding enterprises; cautiously chasing highs for corn in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain holders; near - month soybean meal to be treated strongly on dips and far - month weakly; three major oils' rebound is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [1] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the supply - demand situation, price trends, market news, and policy factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies such as long - term bullish, short - term trading, range trading, and waiting and seeing. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - long term is bullish, buy on dips. After the PMI returned to expansion in December and with strong expectations of policy front - loading at the beginning of the year, the market may develop further. Currently close to the previous high, pay attention to whether it breaks through or retraces [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. Recent positive news such as fund fee regulations and bank EVE indicators have been quickly digested, and the current low static bond yields and high - intensity long - term bond supply do not support large - scale institutional bond purchases [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The core contradiction lies in the game between the strong bearish reality and weak marginal support. The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to change, and it is advisable to trade on the right side of the range [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The price bottomed out and rebounded on Tuesday. The static valuation is neutral, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not large. Pay attention to the weekly steel export data in January [7] - **Glass**: It's advisable to wait and see. The supply - side is expected to be positive, but the demand is weak. There are still positive drivers for the price in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Cautiously hold long positions. The price is in a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage. Although there is medium - long - term support on the supply side, the current price has over - reflected the positives, and there is a risk of retracement. It may maintain a high - level wide - range shock [10] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. The price is mainly driven by expectations and capital, but the fundamentals are weak. The upward pressure is large in January, and the upward space should be viewed cautiously [12] - **Nickel**: Wait and see or short on rallies. The nickel market has an overall surplus situation in the medium - long term, although there was a short - term rebound [14] - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand in the consumer electronics and photovoltaic sectors is weak. It is expected to maintain a strong - side shock [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Range trading. Supported by liquidity and the weakening of the US economic data, the medium - term price center of gravity moves up. For silver, hold long positions cautiously; for gold, trade in the range and be cautious about chasing highs [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Move in a range. The supply and demand are both in a state of change, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [17][18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading at a low level. The overall supply - demand is still weak, but the low valuation and potential policy and cost disturbances should be noted [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Temporarily wait and see. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the rebound space is limited without production cuts [20] - **Styrene**: Range trading. The current valuation is high, and it should be viewed cautiously and weakly. Pay attention to the cost and supply - demand pattern in the medium - long term [20] - **Rubber**: Range trading. The cost support is strengthening, but the inventory is increasing, and the tire production capacity utilization rate is mixed. The price shows a strong - side shock [22] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price fluctuates widely [23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the mainland recovers, the downstream demand is mixed, and the price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Weakly volatile. The supply is expected to shrink in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is insufficient, and the upward space is limited [26] - **Soda Ash**: Temporarily wait and see. The supply is in surplus, and the cost support is strong. It is advisable to leave the market and wait and see [27] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the current price maintains a strong - side shock [29] - **Apple**: Bullish. The market of late - harvested Fuji apples in the warehouse is stable, with slow trading [29] - **Jujube**: Rebound from the bottom. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market trading atmosphere is different in different regions [30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hog**: Short - term shorting on rallies for near - month contracts and cautiously bullish on far - month contracts. The supply pressure exists in the short term, and the price is expected to be under pressure before and after the Spring Festival. The long - term price increase is limited, and hedging can be carried out on rallies [32] - **Egg**: Range trading. The current 02 contract can be hedged on rallies for breeding enterprises. The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. The medium - long - term supply pressure still exists [36] - **Corn**: Weakly volatile. In the short term, there is no strong driving force for the price to rise, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing highs. In the medium - long term, the demand will gradually be released, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [39] - **Soybean Meal**: Range trading. The near - month 03 contract can be treated strongly on dips, and the far - month 05 contract is under pressure [40] - **Oils**: The rebound is limited. In the short term, the fundamentals lack positive factors, and the upward momentum is insufficient. In the medium - long term, there are still some positive points [46]

| | | を业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月7日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 王涛辉 | | Z0019938 | | 田和 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1月6日 | 1月5日 | | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8460 | 8410 | | 20 | 0.59% | | | 期价 | Y2605 | 7912 | 7856 | | રેણ | 0.71% | | | 基差 | Y2605 | 548 | 554 | | -6 | -1.08% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏5月 | 05+530 | 05+520 | | 10 | । | | | 仓单 | | 28264 | 28264 | | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1月6日 | 1月5日 | | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8570 | 8490 ...

消息方面，截至 12 月 31 日，2025/26 年榨季广西 73 家糖厂已全部开榨，同比减少 1 家；累计入榨甘 蔗 1623.03 万吨，同比减少 525.15 万吨；产混合糖 194.19 万吨，同比减少 80.95 万吨；混合产糖率 11.96%，同比降低 0.85 个百分点；累计销糖 88.48 万吨，同比减少 74.74 万吨；产销率 45.56%，同比 下降 13.76 个百分点。其中 12 月份广西单月产糖 180.8 万吨，同比减少 43.1 万吨；单月销糖 79.54 万 吨，同比减少 55.18 万吨；工业库存 105.71 万吨，同比减少 6.21 万吨。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团 报价区间为5300~5370元/吨，上调10~20元/吨；云南制糖集团报价5120~5220元/吨，个别上调10~20元/ 吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为5700~5900元/吨，少数调整30~50元/吨，涨跌不一。原糖方面，市场对于 印度产量同比大幅提升反应平淡，市场仍维持震荡格局。国内方面，春节补库开始，成交有所好转，加 之近期大宗商品整体较为强势，期价向区间上沿攀升，未来关键在于本月压榨进度及进口情况， ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 蛋白粕： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周二，CBOT大豆收低，自一周高点回落。美国农业部网站消息，民间出口商向中国出口销售33.6万吨 大豆，一度提振盘面涨至一周高点。但市场担忧南美丰产压力，盘面最终回落。市场等待下周二发布的 美国农业部公布的供需报告。国内方面，两粕震荡走高。商品市场回暖，大豆进口成本走高，均提振蛋 白粕价格。近月合约涨幅超过远月合约。本周油厂压榨量预计小幅恢复，现货供应压力再次增加，下游 谨慎采购中，滚动操作，预计本周豆粕库存或再次攀升。供需报告前，市场缺乏指引，豆粕上下空间均 有限，区间震荡思路不变。策略上，双卖策略。 油脂： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周二，BMD棕榈油因马币走强下跌。但周边市场走强限制了跌幅。市场等待下周的MPOB报告结果。 调查显示，预计马棕油12月库存攀升至近七年来最高水平。经销商表示，印度12月棕榈油进口量降至8 个月低点。现货市场上，马棕油跌幅超过印尼棕榈油。国内方面，市场氛围偏暖，商品普遍上涨，油 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of establishing "Guangzhou Price" as a significant reference in the global market for key commodities like lithium and industrial silicon, enhancing the international influence of Guangdong's manufacturing sector [2][4][6] - Guangdong's export of "new three items" (new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products) has seen a remarkable growth of 28.8%, with companies like BYD and GAC Group reporting substantial increases in overseas revenue [2][3] - The pricing power of lithium concentrate has historically been dominated by foreign mining companies, leading to increased costs for Chinese enterprises and a lack of negotiation leverage in the international market [3][4] Group 2 - The establishment of futures contracts for industrial silicon and lithium carbonate by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) aims to provide risk management tools that reflect market supply and demand, thereby enhancing the pricing influence of "Guangzhou Price" [4][5] - The international recognition of "Guangzhou Price" has grown, with futures contracts winning awards and allowing foreign institutional investors to participate, marking its integration into the global pricing system for the new energy industry [6][11] - The GFEX has been instrumental in helping companies stabilize operations by integrating futures pricing into their business models, allowing them to manage risks more effectively and transition from reactive to proactive risk management [7][8] Group 3 - The GFEX is expanding its futures offerings to cover more areas within the new energy sector, including strategic minerals and key raw materials, to better serve the high-quality development of the real economy [12][13] - The introduction of futures for platinum and palladium, as well as the planned development of lithium hydroxide futures, aims to enhance the risk management framework for the lithium battery industry and support companies in navigating international market uncertainties [13][14] - The comprehensive development of the "Guangzhou Price" system reflects the GFEX's commitment to supporting the green low-carbon economy and enhancing the authority of Chinese pricing in the global market [14]

| | | | | | | 玻璃纯碱日度数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2026/1/7 | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | 2025/12/30 2026/1/5 | | | 2026/1/6 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/12/30 2026/1/5 | | 2026/1/6 | 周度变化 | 日度变化 | | 沙河5mm 大板低价 | 950.0 | 946.0 | 946.0 | -4.0 | 0.0 | 沙河重碱 1150.0 | | 1140.0 | 1150.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | | 湖 北 大板低价 | 970.0 | 970.0 | 970.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1213.0 | 1177.0 | 1190.0 | -23.0 | 13.0 | | FG05合 约 | 1087.0 | ...