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今年1月全国期货市场成交额同比增长超105%
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2026-02-09 09:37
中国期货业协会最新统计显示,2026年首月,全国期货市场成交量为9.12亿手,成交额为100.26万亿 元,同比分别增长65.09%和105.14%。整体来看,期货市场整体交投活跃,积极赋能实体经济高质量发 展。 (文章来源:第一财经) ...
长江期货养殖产业周报-20260209
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 08:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Pig Industry**: In the short - term, there is an increase in both supply and demand, and the price is not optimistic. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply in the first half of 2026 is expected to increase year - on - year, and the price after the Spring Festival may be under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to strengthen due to capacity reduction, but the process may be slow [4][51]. - **Egg Industry**: Currently, supply is strong and demand is weak, with the near - term contract being weak and the far - term contract being strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply reduction process is slow, and one should not be overly optimistic [5][79]. - **Corn Industry**: In the short - term, the market is balanced in terms of purchase and sales, and the price is expected to remain high. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which will put pressure on the upside space [7][110]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of February 6, the national spot price was 12.05 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 12.72 yuan/kg, up 0.26 yuan/kg from last week; the pig 2605 contract closed at 11,625 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from last week; the 05 contract basis was 1,095 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly national pig price first rose and then fell, with the center of gravity moving down [4][51]. 3.1.2 Supply Side - The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly in September 2025 and the capacity reduction accelerated in October. However, due to previous profits, the anti - loss ability increased, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit turned positive in December, so the capacity reduction slowed down. The inventory of breeding sows in December was still above the normal level of 39 million. In the first half of 2026, the supply will remain high, and it will decrease marginally after August but remain in a balanced state. According to piglet and feed data, the supply pressure in the first half of the year is still large [4][51]. 3.1.3 Demand Side - The weekly slaughtering start - up rate and slaughter volume first increased, then decreased, and then increased again, slowly rising. As the Spring Festival approached, the demand improved, but was briefly affected by the sharp drop in pig prices in the middle of the week. The weekly fresh - sales rate increased slightly, and the frozen - product inventory digestion was slow, with the frozen - product storage rate decreasing slightly [4][51]. 3.1.4 Cost Side - The weekly piglet price fluctuated slightly, and the price of binary breeding sows was stable. The self - breeding and self - raising profit narrowed, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding turned negative. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs for 5 months decreased compared with last week [4][51]. 3.1.5 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, both supply and demand increase, and the price is not optimistic. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply in the first half of the year increases year - on - year, and the price may be under pressure after the Spring Festival if the inventory is not effectively reduced. The price in the second half of the year is expected to strengthen due to capacity reduction, but the process may be slow [4][51]. 3.1.6 Strategy Suggestion - In the short - term, for near - month off - season contracts, partially close short positions after the price drops and adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. For far - month contracts, be cautious about bullish views, and the industry can hedge at high prices when there is profit before the capacity is effectively reduced [4][51]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of February 6, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 4 yuan/jin, down 0.56 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 4.02 yuan/jin, down 0.55 yuan/jin from last Friday; the main egg 2603 contract closed at 2,904 yuan/500 kg, down 98 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was - 84 yuan/500 kg, 702 yuan/500 kg weaker than last Friday. The weekly egg price dropped significantly [5][79]. 3.2.2 Supply Side - The inventory of laying hens in January 2026 was at a historical high. The newly - opened laying hens in February corresponded to the replenishment in September 2025, with both month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The current egg price drop has increased the farmers' enthusiasm for culling, but due to the approaching Spring Festival, the culling of old hens is difficult, and the inventory remains high. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply reduction process is slow [5][79]. 3.2.3 Demand Side - As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg price has risen to a relatively high level, and the procurement demand of channels has decreased significantly. The demand in different regions has diverged, and the substitution demand at the terminal has weakened. The inventory in production and circulation links has increased [5][79]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary - Currently, the supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the price is in a weak shock. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply reduction process is slow [5][79]. 3.2.5 Strategy Suggestion - For non - holders, be cautious about shorting; for holders, hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Consider hedging the 05 and 06 contracts at high prices after a rebound [5][79]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of February 6, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,335 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last Friday; the main corn 2603 contract closed at 2,274 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 61 yuan/ton, 8 yuan/ton weaker than last Friday. The weekly national corn price was slightly weak [7][110]. 3.3.2 Supply Side - The national grass - roots grain sales reached 61%, and the post - festival sales pressure may be small. The import of corn in December was 800,000 tons, a significant increase year - on - year. The inventory in the north and south ports increased [7][110]. 3.3.3 Demand Side - The inventory of breeding sows is slowly decreasing, and the poultry inventory is also slowly declining. The current high inventory supports the rigid demand for feed. The deep - processing profit is in a loss state, which limits the increase in deep - processing demand [7][110]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the market is balanced in terms of purchase and sales, and the price is expected to remain high. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which will put pressure on the upside space [7][110]. 3.3.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short - term, the spot market is balanced, and the futures price fluctuates within a range. Grain - holding entities can hedge at high prices after a rebound. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand situation in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which limits the increase in price [7][110].
蛋白数据日报-20260209
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 05:10
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 --- 2020 =----- 2021 =----- 2022 =----- 2023 =----- 2024 =-- ----- 2021 =---- 2022 =----- 2023 =----- 2024 - 2026 - 2025 2026 2025 1 20 18 15 120 90 60 30 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 12/08 01/01 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 12/08 02/01 03/04 01/01 全国主要油厂开机率(%) 全国主要油厂大豆压榨量(万吨) == ------ 2020 ----- 2021 ------ 2022 ------ 2023 ----- 2024 · 2026 2025 2026 2025 2.90 1 00 200 80 开机和压榨情况 60 150 100 40 50 20 01/01 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/ ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20260209
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 03:13
2026年02月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯:单边震荡市,月差偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA:区间震荡市 | 2 | | MEG:区间操作 | 2 | | 橡胶:宽幅震荡20260209 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:震荡承压 | 6 | | LLDPE:进口窗口缩窄,节前偏震荡市 | 8 | | PP:估值修复有限,出口周签单下滑 | 9 | | 烧碱:成本抬升,估值低位 | 10 | | 纸浆:震荡运行20260209 | 11 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇:震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素:震荡有支撑 | 16 | | 苯乙烯:高位震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱:现货市场变化不大 | 19 | | LPG:地缘扰动仍存,基本面驱动向下 | 20 | | 丙烯:供需维持偏紧,上行驱动转弱 | 20 | | PVC:偏弱震荡 | 23 | | 燃料油:窄幅调整,短期弱势暂缓 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油:偏弱震荡,外盘现货高低硫价差继续下探 | 24 | | 集运指数(欧线):震荡市 | 25 | | 短纤:短期震荡市2026 ...
LPG:地缘扰动仍存,基本面驱动向下:丙烯:供需维持偏紧,上行驱动转弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 02:29
2026 年 2 月 9 日 LPG:地缘扰动仍存,基本面驱动向下 丙烯:供需维持偏紧,上行驱动转弱 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑(联系人) 期货从业资格号:F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2603 | 4,258 | 2.04% | 4,221 | -0.87% | | 2603 | 71,813 | 5,674 | 44,652 | -5,824 | | | PG | 2604 | 4,561 | 2.20% | 4,525 | -0.79% | PG | 2604 | 36,869 | 4,081 | 72,724 | 3,481 | | 期货市场 | | 260 ...
橡胶:宽幅震荡20260209
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 02:08
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report monitors the fundamentals of rubber, including futures market, spot market, and industry news, and indicates that the rubber trend strength is 0, showing a neutral view [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,080 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,085 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. The trading volume was 229,543 lots, a decrease of 53,790 lots; the position of the 05 contract was 146,030 lots, a decrease of 3,983 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 500 tons to 112,070 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 2,404 lots to 26,256 lots [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" was - 180 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan; the basis of "mixed - futures main contract" was - 980 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan; the month - spread of RU05 - RU09 was 105 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] - **Spot Market**: The outer - disk quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 all decreased. The prices of substitutes such as Qilu butadiene styrene and Qilu cis - butadiene increased. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market mostly decreased [2] Industry News - During the 2026 "Spring Festival", the average planned holiday days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises were about 9.17 days, 0.96 days less than the previous year. The start time of the holiday was postponed compared to last year, and the resumption time changed little. The average planned holiday days of all - steel tire sample enterprises were about 11.86 days, a slight decrease of 0.43 days. The overall resumption enthusiasm was slightly more positive than the previous year [3][4] Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [2]
国新国证期货早报-20260209
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 6, the A - share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.73%. The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.16 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 30.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international market conditions, and macro - economic factors. 3. Summary by Variety **Stock Index Futures** - On February 6, the A - share market declined, and the CSI 300 index was weak and volatile, closing at 4643.60, a decrease of 26.82 compared to the previous day [1][2]. **Coke and Coking Coal** - On February 6, the coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1703.0, a decrease of 45.0; the coking coal weighted index was range - bound, closing at 1149.3 yuan, a decrease of 41.7 [2][3]. - Coke: Coking profit is average, daily production slightly decreased, inventory increased slightly. Trade procurement may improve after the first price increase. Overall, carbon supply is abundant, downstream iron - making is in the off - season, steel profit is average, and there is strong pressure on raw material prices [4]. - Coking coal: Mongolian coal customs clearance is 1350 vehicles. Coking coal mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions decreased gradually, but the transaction price increased due to the rise in the futures price. Terminal inventory increased significantly, and the total coking coal inventory increased significantly while production - end inventory decreased slightly. Winter storage demand is coming to an end [4]. **Zhengzhou Sugar** - Affected by global oversupply, US sugar oscillated slightly lower on Friday. Zhengzhou sugar contract 2605 oscillated slightly higher in the night session on Friday. As of the week ending February 3, speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 40,734 contracts to 214,478 contracts [4]. **Rubber** - Shanghai rubber oscillated slightly lower on Friday. As of February 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory was 124,580 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared to the previous period; the futures warehouse receipts were 112,070 tons, an increase of 1140 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 52,819 tons, a decrease of 4435 tons; the futures warehouse receipts were 51,004 tons, a decrease of 2621 tons. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a decrease of 2.23 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points [4]. **Soybean Meal** - Internationally, on February 6, CBOT soybean futures rose slightly. After the China - US leaders' phone call, the market expects China to increase soybean purchases from the US, which may reduce the inventory pressure of US soybeans. As of the week ending January 29, US soybean export sales increased by 437,400 tons, in line with expectations. Brazilian soybeans are in the early stage of harvest, with a harvest rate of over 10%, and the expected production is above 181 million tons, which helps to reduce the expected production decline in Argentina due to local drought. - Domestically, on February 6, the main soybean meal contract 2605 closed at 2735 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15%. The domestic soybean market has a loose supply. In the last week of January, the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills reached a high of 2.3 million tons, and the soybean meal output increased. At the end of the month, the soybean meal inventory slightly rebounded to about 900,000 tons. It is recommended to focus on South American weather changes and soybean arrival volume [6]. **Live Pigs** - On February 6, the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 11,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% compared to the previous day. In terms of supply, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs in February is still high. As the Spring Festival approaches, the daily slaughter plan of farmers increases, and there is an oversupply of suitable - weight pigs. In terms of demand, consumer demand has entered the seasonal peak, and residents' stockpiling for the Spring Festival increases, providing short - term support for pig prices. In the medium term, the inventory of breeding sows and the replenishment of piglets are both at a high level, and the market supply exceeds demand. It is necessary to focus on the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the realization of peak - season demand [6]. **Shanghai Copper** - On February 6, the main Shanghai copper contract (CU2603) opened lower, fluctuated widely, and closed down 2.34%, at 100,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2400 yuan from the previous settlement. The intraday range was 97,920 - 101,420 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 3.5%, and the trading volume was 2.673 million lots. LME and SHFE inventories continued to rise, and domestic social inventory continued to accumulate, increasing short - term supply pressure. Globally, risk appetite declined, US technology stocks tumbled, and crude oil prices fell. Weak US employment data raised recession concerns, leading to the selling of risk assets. Before the Spring Festival, downstream demand was weak, processing enterprises gradually shut down, and spot transactions were light. However, there are China's copper concentrate strategic and commercial reserve policies [6]. **Cotton** - On Friday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,620 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 75 lots compared to the previous day. Textile enterprises had a high pre - holiday operating rate and made rigid purchases on a need - to - use basis [6]. **Iron Ore** - On February 6, the main iron ore contract 2605 oscillated and declined, with a decrease of 1.23%, closing at 760.5 yuan. The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to increase month - on - month, the domestic arrival volume increased slightly, and port inventory continued to accumulate. As the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of steel mills neared the end, the growth space of molten iron was limited, and the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [6]. **Asphalt** - On February 6, the main asphalt contract 2603 oscillated and closed up, with an increase of 0.92%, closing at 3386 yuan. Asphalt supply remained low, refinery inventory pressure was not high, terminal demand continued to decline, and pre - holiday spot transactions were light. The short - term asphalt price showed an oscillating trend [6]. **Log** - The main log contract 2603 opened at 802 on Friday, with a minimum of 780.5, a maximum of 802.5, and closed at 784, with a reduction of 1932 lots in positions. In the last week before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the support from the spot market and the margin - increasing market before the festival. On February 6, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. Port coniferous log inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks, reaching a 15 - and - a - half - month low. Future attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and the support from macro - expectations and market sentiment [6][8]. **Steel** - The domestic construction steel market showed a "weak and stable" pattern, with narrowing price fluctuations. As the Spring Festival approached, construction projects across the country basically entered the final and shutdown stages, and terminal procurement demand decreased. Market transactions were mainly sporadic rigid demand and a small amount of winter - storage resource circulation among traders. The daily trading volume of national construction steel continued to decline, and the market was generally in a state of "having prices but no transactions", and the demand's driving effect on prices temporarily disappeared [8]. **Alumina** - On the raw material side, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually decreasing, and domestic bauxite supply is gradually sufficient. Coupled with the relatively high raw material inventory of alumina plants, the purchasing demand is weak, so the bauxite price has loosened, and the cost support for alumina has weakened. On the supply side, the alumina futures market performed well, driving the production enthusiasm of smelters, and the operating rate has increased. The current domestic supply is still relatively large, and the industrial inventory is slightly accumulating. On the demand side, the newly put - into - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum gradually increases the demand for alumina, but due to the industry's capacity ceiling, the increase is limited, and the raw material consumption generally increases steadily [8]. **Shanghai Aluminum** - Fundamentally, on the supply side, the price of raw material alumina is at a low level. Although the aluminum price has回调, the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is still good. Coupled with the high start - stop cost of smelters, the production operation remains at a high and stable level, and the operating capacity has increased slightly, but limited by the industry ceiling, the increase is limited, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is generally stable. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises made pre - holiday stockpiling at low prices as the aluminum price回调. As the stockpiling nears the end and affected by the long - holiday shutdown, downstream demand may gradually weaken. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly improved demand, and the industrial inventory accumulates seasonally [8].
本周热点前瞻2026-02-09
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 01:40
2026 年 2 月 9 日 本周热点前瞻 2026-02-09 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0000372 邮箱:taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者,请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介,亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险,不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 2 月 10 日-17 日 16:00,中国人民银行将公布 1 月金融统计数据报告、1 月社会融资规模增量统计数据报告、 1 月社会融资规模存量统计数据报告。 2 月 10 日 21:30,美国商务部将公布 1 月零售销售。 2 月 11 日 09:30,国家统计局将公布中国 1 月 CPI 和 PPI, 2 月 11 日 21:30,美国劳工部统计局将公布 1 月非农就业报告。 2 月 12 日 21:30,美国劳工部将公布截至 2 月 7 日当周初请失业金人数。 2 月 13 日 09:30, ...
PTA:区间震荡市MEG:区间操作:对二甲苯:单边震荡市,月差偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 01:40
MEG:据悉,沙特一套 85 万吨/年的乙二醇装置计划 3-4 月份停车检修,预计时间在 1-2 个月。据悉, 沙特一套 38 万吨/年的乙二醇装置重启时间待定,该装置原计划 2 月份内重启。 期 货 研 究 2026 年 02 月 09 日 对二甲苯:单边震荡市,月差偏弱 PTA:区间震荡市 MEG:区间操作 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7262 | 5166 | 3743 | 6578 | 469.8 | | 涨跌 | 62 | 22 | -2 | 14 | 2.6 | | 涨跌幅 | 0.86% | 0.43% | -0.05% | 0.21% | 0.56% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF3-4 | SC2-3 | | 昨日收盘价 | 14 | 8 | -114 | -80 | 0 | | 前日收盘价 | 14 ...
LPG早报-20260209
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 01:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and declined mainly due to the drop in oil prices and the weak basis of PG. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG), and the March - April spread was -303 (-9). The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1035 to 6902 lots, with Wuchan Zhongda adding 1000 lots. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30) [1]. - The overseas paper cargo monthly spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated. The internal - external spread weakened, with PG - FEI c1 at 75.26 (-9.6). The FEI - MB spread was 185.6 (+16.6), and the FEI - CP spread was 10 (+13). Freight rates rose. The actual landed cost fluctuated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). PDH profit decreased [1]. - Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 percentage points, and ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 percentage points; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 percentage points). Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increased their loads, and the second - phase of Yantai Wanhua is expected to resume next week. Although the temperature warmed slightly this week but remained low, the rigid demand for combustion was acceptable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will actively discharge inventory [1]. - Overall, the domestic basis remains weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the price of civil LPG may not have much room to fall during the pre - festival inventory discharge; the March - April spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. The overseas market remains tight in the short term, with high freight rates. Geopolitical factors and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Price Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/02/02 | 4870 | 4428 | 4480 | 616 | 540 | 526 | 4250 | 7150 | -40 | 373 | | 2026/02/03 | 4860 | 4428 | 4480 | 613 | 532 | 524 | 4240 | 7130 | -22 | 334 | | 2026/02/04 | 4845 | 4428 | 4470 | 624 | 560 | 535 | 4250 | 7200 | -125 | 277 | | 2026/02/05 | 4845 | 4446 | 4470 | 634 | 573 | 536 | 4250 | 7230 | -198 | 373 | | 2026/02/06 | 4835 | 4475 | 4440 | 635 | 569 | 532 | 4240 | 7230 | -213 | 317 | | Daily Change | -10 | 29 | -30 | 1 | -4 | -4 | -10 | 0 | -15 | -56 | Capacity and Demand Data - Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 percentage points, and ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 percentage points; external sales increased by 0.94% [1]. - Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 percentage points). Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increased their loads, and the second - phase of Yantai Wanhua is expected to resume next week [1].