新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-09 氧化铝的仓单风险仍在继续 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20600元/吨，较上一交易日下跌40元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌20元/吨至-60元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20480元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下 跌10元/吨至-170元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20580元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨5元/吨至-70元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-08日沪铝主力合约开于20460元/吨，收于20525元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨25元/ 吨，涨幅0.12%，最高价达20570元/吨，最低价达到20430元/吨。全天交易日成交109583手，较上一交易日减 少39087手，全天交易日持仓254726手，较上一交易日减少598手。 库存方面，截止2025-07-07，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存47.8万吨。截止2025-07-08，LME铝库存384350 吨，较前一交易日增加13200吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-08 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3100元/吨，山东价格录得30 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-09 仓单持续注销，碳酸锂盘面偏强运行 整体来看，短期盘面拉涨带动现货与锂矿价格上涨，刚需有一定支撑，但盘面反弹后成交情况一般，近期新能源 品种均表现较强，碳酸锂7月老仓单需注销，新仓单注册情况不明，短期碳酸锂盘面偏强运行，后续需关注新仓单 注册情况。 单边：短期观望，若盘面反弹可逢高卖出套保 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 市场分析 2025年7月8日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于63860元/吨，收于63880元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价小幅上涨。当日 成交量为545405手，持仓量为338034手，较前一交易日增加15500手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳1110 元/吨。所有合约总持仓599714手，较前一交易日增加8534手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加391491手，整 体投机度为1.13。当日碳酸锂仓单12655手，较上个交易日减少2700手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年7月7日电池级碳酸锂报价6.21-6.37万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.035万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.008-6.18万元/吨，较前一交易 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-07-09 山东液氯继续下跌，支撑烧碱盘面 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4894元/吨（+2）；华东基差-114元/吨（-2）;华南基差-64元/吨（-2）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4780元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4830元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2855元/吨（-20）；电石利润105元/吨（-20）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-552元/吨（-48）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-695元/吨（-2）；PVC出口利润-7.7美元/吨（+1.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.6万吨（-0.9）；PVC社会库存37.3万吨（+1.1）；PVC电石法开工率80.73%（+0.30%）； PVC乙烯法开工率65.46%（-1.92%）；PVC开工率76.50%（-0.31%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量65.8万吨（+2.8）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2408元/吨（+0）；山东32%液碱基差123元/吨（+63）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价810元/吨（+20）；山东50%液碱报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short - term neutral, upstream is recommended to sell hedging at high prices [3] - Polysilicon: Long - term suitable for low - level layout of long positions, short - term neutral [6][8] 2. Report's Core View - The influence of policies and emotions on the new energy and non - ferrous metals industry continues to ferment, with the polysilicon futures hitting the daily limit [1] - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are short - term improved slightly, but the overall situation is still weak, and its futures price increase is affected by polysilicon [3] - Polysilicon prices are expected to rise significantly due to policy disturbances, and mid - to long - term investment opportunities exist [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On July 8, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2509 opened at 8060 yuan/ton and closed at 8215 yuan/ton, up 2.82% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 387122 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 51077 lots, down 272 lots from the previous day [2] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8200 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8000 - 8100 yuan/ton [2] - The consumption side: The price of silicone DMC was 10300 - 10600 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic silicone DMC production increased by 13.75% month - on - month and decreased by 1.60% year - on - year. It is estimated that the silicone production in July will increase by 1.53% month - on - month [2] Strategy - The short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, but the industry inventory is high, and there is hedging pressure after the rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If there is no policy promotion, upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On July 8, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures hit the daily limit, opening at 36505 yuan/ton and closing at 38385 yuan/ton, up 7.00% from the previous day. The position was 110547 lots, and the trading volume was 634366 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, except for the increase in N - type materials. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased slightly. The weekly polysilicon production was 24000.00 tons, up 1.69% week - on - week, and the silicon wafer production was 11.90GW, down 11.46% week - on - week [4][5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5] Strategy - Recently, affected by policies and capital emotions, the prices of futures and spot have risen sharply. The market expects the polysilicon price to be above 39 - 40 yuan/kg. In the long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low levels [6]

化工日报 | 2025-07-09 沙特装置近期重启中，EG震荡偏弱 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4267元/吨（较前一交易日变动-12元/吨，幅度-0.28%），EG华东市场现货价 4343元/吨（较前一交易日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.09%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）71元/吨（环比-1元/吨）。 沙特几套分别为45、55、70万吨/年的乙二醇装置于近期重启中，该装置上周因电力问题短暂停车。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-62美元/吨（环比+17美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为15元/吨（环比-20 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为58.0万吨（环比+3.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为54.2万吨（环比+3.6万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.6万吨，周度港口库存去库； 本周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，中性，后期进口回归下港口库存仍有回升压力。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应端陆续恢复，短期供需结构依旧表现良性，但是仓单陆续注销流出后场 内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外 ...

港口到港压力仍存，价格震荡偏弱 甲醇观点 甲醇日报 | 2025-07-09 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润670元/吨（-20）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1965元/吨（-20），内蒙北线基差192元/吨（-1），内蒙南线2020元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2280元/吨（-15），鲁 南基差107元/吨（+4）；河南2175元/吨（+0），河南基差2元/吨（+19）；河北2185元/吨（+0），河北基差72元/吨（+19）。 隆众内地工厂库存352280吨（+10730），西北工厂库存223500吨（+18000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单233250吨（-7450）， 西北工厂待发订单110400吨（-9100）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2402元/吨（-23），太仓基差29元/吨（-4），CFR中国280美元/吨（-2），华东进口价差-32元/吨 （-23），常州甲醇2400元/吨；广东甲醇2415元/吨（-20），广东基差42元/吨（-1）。隆众港口总库存673660吨（+3160）， 江苏港口库存333000吨（-23500），浙江港口库存 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-09 供应充足，盘面弱势震荡 市场分析 1、\t7月8日地区价格：山东市场，4550-4650；东北市场，4120-4330；华北市场，4460-4650；华东市场，4380-4580； 沿江市场，4570-4740；西北市场，4150-4400；华南市场，4570-4720。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年8月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷566美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，丁烷537美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4457元/吨，涨56元/吨，丁烷4229元/吨，涨80元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷571美元/吨，涨14美元/吨，丁烷542美元/吨，涨15美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4497元/吨，涨112元/吨，丁烷4268元/吨，涨119元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日原油价格走强，但对LPG市场提振有限，盘面维持弱势震荡，市场驱动不足。现货方面，沿江地区有所下跌， 其余区域主流维稳，氛围温和，上游库压尚可，下游按需采购。供应方面，OPEC计划增产，海外供应维持充裕； 国内供应尚可，整 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU is rated neutral, and NR is rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Driven by the warming macro - atmosphere, rubber prices rebounded slightly. Currently, the absolute price of rubber is at a low level. From the perspective of spreads and production profits, RU is in an undervalued range, and the valuation of NR is not significantly overvalued. However, the current driving force is still weak due to the peak rubber - tapping season at home and abroad, with production maintaining a recovery pattern. Affected by seasonal rainfall, it is not the peak period of raw material output. In China, due to the better profit of concentrated latex factories than that of whole - latex production, the phenomenon of factories competing for raw materials still exists, and domestic raw material prices remain firm. But overseas rainfall has eased, and it is expected that raw material prices will continue to weaken, reducing the cost - side support for rubber. This week, the maintenance of domestic semi - steel tire factories may gradually end, and the operating rate is expected to rebound month - on - month, but the terminal demand is weak. For BR, the news of the fault of the upstream atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit of butadiene and the warming macro - atmosphere drove a significant rebound in cis - butadiene rubber. However, the actual impact on the butadiene unit is limited. The supply is expected to change little this week. Although Shandong Yihua is under maintenance, some private units have plans to increase production. The production profit is still around the break - even point, limiting the supply increase. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tire factories is expected to rebound month - on - month, but the terminal demand is weak, and the rebound amplitude is limited. The supply - demand contradiction of cis - butadiene rubber itself is not significant. The upstream butadiene raw material supply is abundant, and there is rigid procurement at low prices, so the price fluctuation is expected to be limited. Cis - butadiene rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 13,985 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the NR main contract was 12,070 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole - latex in the Shanghai market was 13,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,720 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,660 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information - Thailand: In 2025, Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase by 2% to 4.89 million tons, with different growth rates in different regions. - Vietnam: From January to May, Vietnam exported a total of 341,000 tons of mixed rubber, a year - on - year increase of 10%. - USA: In the first five months of 2025, the United States imported a total of 120.95 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to May, the United States imported a total of 11.1 million tires from China, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 8, 2025, the RU basis was - 35 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 135 yuan/ton (+ 15), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 6,192 yuan/ton (- 37.10), the NR basis was 234.00 yuan/ton (+ 11.00). - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.20 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai glue was 54.50 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 47.50 Thai baht/kg (- 0.30), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 7.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.30). - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.53% (- 0.70%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 64.13% (- 6.27%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,590 tons (+ 7,445.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 632,377 tons (+ 287), the RU futures inventory was 188,850 tons (- 3,110), and the NR futures inventory was 29,736 tons (+ 2,118) [3] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 8, 2025, the BR basis was - 155 yuan/ton (- 305), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 11,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 11,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,150 yuan/ton (+ 100), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,170 yuan/ton (+ 251). - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 66.98% (+ 0.19%). - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 6,800 tons (+ 430), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,350 tons (- 1,300) [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that PTA futures prices are experiencing slight fluctuations due to various market factors, including oil prices and supply conditions [1] - On July 8, PTA main futures TA2509 closed at 4710 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 6 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.13% rise, and a daily increase in positions of 12883 contracts [1] - International oil prices have shown resilience despite OPEC's production recovery, driven by concerns over summer demand, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil settling at $67.93 per barrel, up $0.93, and Brent crude at $69.58 per barrel, up $1.28 [1] Group 2 - PX prices in the Chinese market are assessed at $846-$848 per ton, reflecting a $5 increase from the previous day, while Korean market prices are at $826-$828 per ton, also up by $5 [1] - The East China PTA market price is at 4798 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with an average trading basis of 88 yuan/ton above futures, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1] - The market is characterized by a clear atmosphere of speculation, with three transactions recorded during the day, as the industry awaits the advancement of new PTA production capacity [1]

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/07/09 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: U.S. Treasury Secretary says plans to hold talks with Chinese side. Future ...