Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price has a slight increase, and after the production reduction in Southwest China during the dry - season, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and inventory accumulation slows down. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies pushing for capacity exit, the futures price may rise. - For polysilicon, both supply and demand have weakened, with large inventory pressure and average consumption performance. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly [2][7]. 3. Summary by Topic Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On November 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped. The main contract 2601 opened at 9365 yuan/ton and closed at 9075 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.37% from the previous settlement. The 2511 main contract held 273978 positions, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43297, a decrease of 115 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market**: The industrial silicon spot price increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9500 - 9600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 54.8 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons from last week. The social general warehouse inventory was 12.9 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 41.9 tons, unchanged from last week [1]. - **Export and Import**: In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 4.51 tons, a sharp decrease of 36% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 60.67 tons, a decrease of 1% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 was 0.86 tons, a decrease of 67% year - on - year [2]. - **Consumption**: The price of silicone DMC continued to rise, with the current market quotation ranging from 13000 to 13200 yuan/ton, an increase of about 850 yuan/ton or 6.9% from last week's average price. In October 2025, the export volume of primary polysiloxanes from China was 4.1 tons, a decrease of 13.5% month - on - month and 5.7% year - on - year [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term range operation, and for dry - season contracts, buy on dips [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On November 20, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2601 fluctuated weakly. It opened at 54500 yuan/ton and closed at 52450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous trading day. The main contract held 134292 positions, and the trading volume was 304835 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [5]. - **Inventory and Production**: Polysilicon factory inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.10, a change of 1.50% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.72GW, a change of 1.63% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon production was 27100.00 tons, a change of 1.11% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 12.78GW, a change of - 2.59% month - on - month [5]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component Prices**: Silicon wafer prices fell due to poor order demand. The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.26 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.60 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.27 yuan/piece. The prices of various types of battery cells and components remained stable [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 and 55,000 yuan/ton [7].

农产品日报 | 2025-11-21 苹果主产区入库基本结束，红枣剩余货源价格松动 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 近期市场资讯，晚富士地面及入库交易逐步扫尾，库内交易以稳为主。西部出库仍集中在甘肃及陕西旬邑产区， 果农好货调货为主，库内陆续包装发市场，部分客商调货转存。山东地面交易陆续收尾，市场货源有所减少，地 面货源质量有所下滑，果农顺价卖货为主。栖霞80#一二级主流参考价3.5-4元/斤，栖霞80#一二级半主流参考价 3.0-3.3元/斤，统货价格2.0-3.0元/斤，65#价格1.7元/斤附近。甘肃产区静宁果农好货出库价格4.5-5.5元/斤不等。庆 阳出库价格3.6-4.5元/斤不等；陕西产区咸阳旬邑等产区果农货出库价格3.0-3.5元/斤。入库工作陆续进入后期，库 内交易较为稳定，好货价格稳定运行，短期内在外贸渠道等托底下行情预计维持稳定为主。目前受到柑橘等竞品 水果冲击，市场走货一般，后续关注市场对库存货源的消化能力。 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约9496元/吨，较前一日变动+121元/吨，幅度+1.29%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/21 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/11/1 4 801 2060 2048 2380 2370 2350 2580 239 319 -10 -30 - 2025/11/1 7 801 2020 2010 2370 2365 2350 2560 239 319 - -28 - 2025/11/1 8 801 2010 2005 2370 2350 2335 2568 236 318 - -23 - 2025/11/1 9 801 1995 1985 2348 2350 2335 2578 - 317 - -20 - 2025/11/2 0 801 2007 1990 2355 2350 2340 2578 - - - -20 - 日度变化 0 12 5 7 0 5 0 - - - 0 - 观点 现实差继续，伊朗停车慢于预期，11月应还是高进口，01矛盾较难处理，港口制裁的事情预计能在限气结束前解 决，库存去化较 难 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, waiting for the market bottom to consolidate [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The asphalt futures market is in a low - level oscillation state. The cost side of crude oil is weak, and the fundamentals lack positive stimuli. Although there are some bottom signals, the rebound momentum is insufficient. The spot market is generally stable, with a weak trading atmosphere and no clear positive signals [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 20, the closing price of the main BU2601 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3058 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 191,962 lots, down 2,515 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 317,665 lots, up 135,611 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3156 - 3650 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3030 - 3520 yuan/ton; South China, 3090 - 3210 yuan/ton; East China, 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton [1]. - The asphalt futures market maintains a low - level oscillation. The crude oil cost is weak, and the fundamentals lack positive stimuli. There are bottom signals but insufficient rebound momentum. In the spot market, the price in North China decreased slightly yesterday, while prices in other regions were relatively stable. Although the supply in some areas is tight, the overall terminal demand is weak, resource consumption is slow, the willingness of market participants to buy at the bottom is limited, and the trading atmosphere is poor [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a neutral strategy and wait for the market bottom to be consolidated [2]. - Inter - period: No strategy [2]. - Inter - variety: No strategy [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [2]. - Options: No strategy [2].

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-21 下游开工逐步见顶回落 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6835元/吨（+2），PP主力合约收盘价为6400元/吨（-34），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为6450元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-35元/吨（-22），LL 华东基差为115元/吨（-52）， PP华东基差为50元/吨（+34）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.7%（-0.4%），PP开工率为78.3%（-1.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为382.4元/吨（+204.2），PP油制生产利润为-407.6元/吨（+204.2），PDH制PP生产 利润为-376.1元/吨（-21.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为84.4元/吨（+55.9），PP进口利润为-208.9元/吨（-31.3），PP出口利润为-5.4美元/吨（-1.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为49.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率 ...

Report Information - Report date: November 21, 2025 [1][4][13][14][19][22][25][35][39][43][48][53][57][63][67][69][72][80][83][85] - Report title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Energy and Chemicals [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including trends such as supply - demand changes, price fluctuations, and trading strategies for each commodity [2][4][10][11][12] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply is expected to be tight, with a rising unilateral price. Suggest 5 - 9 month - spread positive arbitrage, long PX and short PTA/PF/PR, and long PX and short pure benzene for hedging. The terminal polyester demand is weakening marginally [10][11] - **PTA**: The upside space may be limited, do not chase high. Cost provides support, and the month - spread view is revised to positive arbitrage [11] - **MEG**: The medium - term trend is weak. Short at high prices and maintain reverse arbitrage for month - spreads. Supply is expected to increase, and there is an oversupply situation in December [12] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. The supply side provides support, but the demand side from tire factories is weak, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally [13][14][17][18] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. Short - term prices are supported by the rubber sector, but the medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are under pressure [19][20][21] Asphalt - It follows the weak trend of crude oil. The production has decreased this week, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [22][34] LLDPE - Agricultural demand may be reaching its peak. Pay attention to supply pressure. The raw material cost is under pressure, and the downstream demand is supported by rigid needs, but the mid - and downstream inventory - holding willingness has weakened [35][36] PP - Do not short in the short term, but the medium - term trend is still under pressure. The supply is high, and the demand peak has passed. Low profits limit the downward space [39][40] Caustic Soda - The trend is still under pressure. High production and high inventory continue, and the demand side has limited support. The cost support is weak, and the long - term negative feedback from alumina production cuts may occur [43][45] Pulp - It is in a volatile state. The price fluctuation is affected by factors such as futures stability, weak demand, and high inventory [48][50][52] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The market trading atmosphere is general, and the price has been adjusted downward in some regions [53][54] Methanol - It is in a weakly volatile state with a narrowing downward space. The supply is high, the demand from the MTO industry is under pressure, and the cost - side pricing logic weight increases slightly [57][60][62] Urea - It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the fourth - batch export quota and mid - stream replenishment may relieve the pressure [63][65][66] Styrene - It is in a short - term volatile state. The short - term aromatic hydrocarbon blending oil logic continues, and the pure benzene market has a weak chemical reality and a strong blending oil expectation [67][68] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The enterprise production is stable, and the downstream demand is based on low - price rigid needs [69][70] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [72] - **Propylene**: The spot trend is strong, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom [72] PVC - Do not short at low levels. It is in a low - level volatile state. The futures price is at a historical low, and some devices may cut production. However, the high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change in the short term [80][81] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has strengthened in the short term, with a continuous rebound at night [83] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weak trend continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has slightly decreased [83] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in a volatile state [85] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term volatile state [31] - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term volatile state, and the processing fee is compressed [31] Offset Printing Paper - It is in a low - level volatile state [32] Pure Benzene - It is mainly volatile in the short term. The overseas blending oil market is starting, and the chemical fundamentals are weak [34][68]

期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 21 日 2025年11月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：反弹高度有限，关注产地去库进程 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：暂无突破驱动，区间震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 7 | | 棉花：期价维持震荡走势 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰加量 | 10 | | 生猪：降温预期落地，压力逐步释放 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：反弹高度有限，关注产地去库进程 豆油：暂无突破驱动，区间震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 -2.33% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 0.07% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,646 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-11-21 天然橡胶：维持区间震荡格局 油脂：美生柴政策预期反复，昨日油脂情绪转弱 蛋白粕：南美天气市，美豆强于连粕 玉米/淀粉：震荡市延续，关注上冻后卖压冲击和建库的博弈 生猪：猪源充裕，价格弱势运行 天然橡胶：维持区间震荡格局 合成橡胶：市场氛围企稳，盘面延续震荡 棉花：棉价窄幅波动，空间受限 白糖：供应压力边际增大，糖价延续走弱 纸浆：盘面价格大跌，仍是资金进出带来影响 双胶纸：招标提振有限，双胶纸震荡运行 原木：估值不高，盘面低位波动 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 天然橡㬵观点：维持区间震荡格局 逻辑：天胶昨日在10月进口细分数据出炉后有所回落但幅度有限，暂时来 看下方仍有支撑。基本面具体来说，目前海外供应季节性上量相对顺利， 但原料价格坚挺一定程度上对盘面有所支撑。但这更多是来自于加工产能 扩张后的原料挤兑，后续仍面临一定回落压力。而需求端来看近两周并没 有发生明显的变化，价格下跌后下游采买情绪仍尚可。从品种间的角度来 看，RU仓单炒作似乎已经告一段落，后续来说上方的抛压相较于NR ...

021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...