Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Views - **Lead**: SMM research shows that the supply of raw materials for recycled lead smelters has tightened recently, and some smelters may reduce production due to raw material shortages. With improved macro - sentiment, the lead price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The trading strategy is to try long positions at low prices [1]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate is tightening, and the treatment charge is likely to decline. Although the supply of zinc ingots is currently stable, the demand is weak. The zinc price is expected to be mainly range - bound, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Data - **Lead**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots is 17,100 yuan/ton, up 0.15%; the futures main contract closing price is 17,245 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) is 1,998.50 dollars/ton, with no change. The trading volume of the active futures contract is 37,288 lots, up 38.02%, and the open interest is 46,582 lots, down 0.10%. The LME inventory is 248,050 tons, with no change, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 16,553 tons, down 0.46% [1]. - **Zinc**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots is 22,920 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; the futures main contract closing price is 22,865 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) is 3,062 dollars/ton, with no change. The trading volume of the active futures contract is 164,347 lots, up 54.44%, and the open interest is 105,684 lots, up 1.05%. The LME inventory is 54,325 tons, with no change, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 62,028 tons, down 2.47% [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Lead**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the treatment charge is likely to rise. The start - up rate of primary lead and recycled lead has declined, and the inventory of primary lead has increased while that of recycled lead has decreased. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weakening, while the automobile battery market is approaching the traditional replacement peak season [1]. - **Zinc**: Refineries are actively purchasing domestic zinc concentrates, and the domestic supply of concentrates is tight, with the treatment charge expected to decline. The refinery's profit and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly output is expected to be around 600,000 tons. The demand side is still weak [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Lead**: Try to go long at low prices [1]. - **Zinc**: Wait and see [1].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 期货研究报告 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 美豆成本支撑，美国生物燃 料政策，美豆油库存，国内 大豆成本支撑，供应节奏， 油厂库存 棕榈 2601 震荡 偏强 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 马棕 ...

期货研究报告 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 新增利空有限，焦煤小幅反弹 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 压力趋缓，焦炭小幅反弹 | 备注： 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX: The PXN continues to widen, with a high - level volatile market. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on BZ and the 5 - 9 calendar spread. PX supply is expected to contract, and demand from PTA is rising. PX - MX spread widens, and PXN has risen significantly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance under high profits [1][4]. - PTA: It is in a single - sided high - level volatile market. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA and the 5 - 9 calendar spread. Be vigilant against the negative feedback in the industrial chain due to early terminal holidays from late December to early January [1][5]. - MEG: Hold the position of going long on MEG and short on PTA. The unilateral price fluctuates in the range of 3800 - 4000, with the upside space not yet opened. Pay attention to the positive calendar spread. Overall supply of ethylene glycol is tightening, and port inventory is expected to decline marginally [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures are 6908, 4730, 3822, 6284, and 448.1 respectively, with changes of - 4, - 22, - 55, - 20, and - 5.7 and percentage changes of - 0.06%, - 0.46%, - 1.42%, - 0.32%, and - 1.26% [2]. - **Futures Month - spreads**: PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 closing prices are - 36, - 66, - 104, - 114, and 0.3 respectively, with changes of - 6, 0, 1, - 14, and 0.8 [2]. - **Spot**: The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG, Naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent are 848.33 dollars/ton, 4705 yuan/ton, 3829 yuan/ton, 562 dollars/ton, and 64.18 dollars/barrel respectively, with changes of - 2.34, - 15, - 47, - 5.25, and - 0.04 [2]. - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX - Naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread are 265.33, 159.83, 226.6, 79.25, and - 4.23 respectively, with changes of 5, - 39.41, 9.65, 8.6, and 0.11 [2]. Market Dynamics - **PX**: The price of naphtha rebounded in the late session. The PX price declined today, with two January Asian spot transactions at 847 and one February Asian spot at 849. The estimated PX price is 848 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars from yesterday [3]. - **MEG**: The price center of ethylene glycol declined, and market negotiation was average. The spot price of ethylene glycol dropped to below 3810 yuan/ton, and the external market price trended weakly. There were transactions for near - term and end - of - December/early - January shipments [3]. Polyester - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were slightly differentiated, with an average sales rate estimated to be below 40% by 3:30 pm. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 47% by 3:00 pm [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral view [4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **PX**: Domestic operating rate is maintained at 88.5% (- 1%), with Sinochem Quanzhou under maintenance. GS and Zhejiang Petrochemical have future maintenance plans, so PX supply is expected to shrink. PTA operating rate has increased to 73.7% (+ 1.6%) [4]. - **PTA**: The PTA load has been adjusted to 73.7% (+ 1.6%) due to the restart and load increase of some devices. Polyester operating rate remains high at 91.5% (+ 0.2%) [5]. - **MEG**: Coal - based ethylene glycol load is expected to further increase, and oil - based device (Shenghong Refining 100 - million - ton device) has a maintenance plan. Iranian overseas devices have been shut down, and port inventory is expected to decline marginally [5].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国数据意外走低，降息预期增加，另外俄乌停战谈判有新进展，黄金高位调整。 | | 黄金 ★ | 长线持有 | 黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价 | | | | 值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期白银交易交割逼仓以及低库存，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。不过现货高升 | | | 不宜追高 | 水、白银期货波动率飙升，短期不宜追高。长线供给有缺口，全球经济刺激、流动 | | ★★ | | 性维持宽松，做多逻辑不变 | | 铜 | | 美国 ADP 就业数据大幅不及预期，LME 铜库存注销仓单骤增，海外挤仓担忧加剧， | | | 长线持有 | 国内淡季去库，非美铜库存或逐渐告急，伦铜和沪铜再创历史新高，建议多单移动 | | ★ | | 逢高止盈，中长期，铜依旧看多。 | | | | 宏观情绪缓和，锌精矿加工费持续下调，下游进入消费淡季，整体供需双弱，国内 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 淡季去库，锌上方空间或有限，建议多单止盈落袋。中长期看，锌供增需减，维持 | | ★ | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Platinum shows a narrow - range oscillation, and palladium shows a sideways consolidation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - **Price**: The closing prices of platinum and palladium - related products had different changes. For example, the platinum futures 2606 closed at 440.55 with a - 0.44% change, and the New York platinum main - continuous closed at 1683.50 with a 1.81% change. The palladium futures 2606 closed at 381.50 with a 1.94% change [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes and open interests of platinum and palladium also changed. For instance, the trading volume of Guangbo platinum was 19,006, a decrease of 3,565 compared to the previous day, and its open interest was 12,674, an increase of 409 [3]. - **ETF Holdings**: The platinum ETF holdings (ounces) (previous day) were 3,121,942, an increase of 19,383, and the palladium ETF holdings (ounces) (previous day) were 1,077,501, a decrease of 7 [3]. - **Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 615,297, a decrease of 1,031, while the NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 172,604, with no change [3]. - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads had different changes. For example, the PT9995 to PT2606 price spread was - 8.33, an increase of 3.23 compared to the previous day [3]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.87, a - 0.09% change, and the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) was 7.07, a - 0.07% change [3]. Macro and Industry News - The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, the lowest since March 2023, while the market expected an increase of 10,000 [6]. - The Kremlin stated that it was incorrect to say that Russian President Putin rejected the US proposal on Ukraine, and it was just a preliminary exchange of opinions [6]. - US media reported that US Treasury Secretary Bessent might concurrently serve as the director of the National Economic Council [6]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that there was weakness in some areas of the economy and interest rate cuts were needed [6]. - US media reported that Trump's assistant would meet with senior Ukrainian negotiators in Miami on Thursday [6]. - The EU will fully ban the import of Russian natural gas in the autumn of 2027 [6]. Trend Intensity - The platinum trend intensity is 0, and the palladium trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].

Report on the Steel Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market is in a state of reducing production and inventory, with relatively minor contradictions. Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils is 3250 - 3400. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has converged to 180, and it can continue to be held. Considering the decline in hot metal, which suppresses iron ore prices, one can focus on the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage operation in the January contract [1]. 3. Summary by Section Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3300 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3340 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices of 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3169 yuan/ton, 3203 yuan/ton, and 3137 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3300 yuan/ton, 3240 yuan/ton, and 3340 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices of 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3324 yuan/ton, 3337 yuan/ton, and 3319 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Costs: Steel billet price is 2990 yuan/ton, Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar cost is 3245 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu converter rebar cost is 3177 yuan/ton [1]. - Profits: East China rebar profit is - 34 yuan/ton, North China rebar profit is - 114 yuan/ton, and South China rebar profit is 206 yuan/ton. East China hot - rolled coil profit is - 24 yuan/ton, North China hot - rolled coil profit is - 94 yuan/ton, and South China hot - rolled coil profit is 16 yuan/ton [1]. Production - Daily average hot metal output is 234.7 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons or 0.7% compared to the previous value. The output of five major steel products is 855.7 tons, an increase of 5.8 tons or 0.7%. Rebar output is 206.1 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons or 0.9%. Among them, electric - arc furnace output is 29.3 tons, an increase of 2.6 tons or 9.5%, and converter output is 176.7 tons, a decrease of 4.4 tons or 2.4%. Hot - rolled coil output is 319.0 tons, an increase of 3.0 tons or 0.9% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1400.8 tons, a decrease of 32.3 tons or 2.3%. Rebar inventory is 531.5 tons, a decrease of 21.9 tons or 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 400.9 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons or 0.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume is 9.0 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or 8.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 888.0 tons, a decrease of 6.2 tons or 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar is 227.9 tons, a decrease of 2.8 tons or 1.2%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 320.2 tons, a decrease of 4.2 tons or 1.3% [1]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures are expected to oscillate within the range of 750 - 820. The supply side shows that the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin continued to decline, hot metal output decreased, and steel mill maintenance increased. With the rebound of steel prices, there is room for raw material price increases. The downstream demand is expected to pick up, and the hot metal output has no basis for a large - scale decline, which supports the iron ore demand [3]. 3. Summary by Section Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs: The warehouse receipt cost of Karara fines is 803.3 yuan/ton, PB fines is 844.7 yuan/ton, Brazilian blended fines is 847.0 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba fines is 843.5 yuan/ton [3]. - Basis: The 01 - contract basis for Karara fines is 3.8 yuan/ton, PB fines is 45.2 yuan/ton, Brazilian blended fines is 47.5 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba fines is 44.0 yuan/ton [3]. - Spreads: The 5 - 9 spread is 24.0 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread is - 46.5 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is 22.5 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices at Rizhao Port: Karara fines is 883.0 yuan/ton, PB fines is 796.0 yuan/ton, Brazilian blended fines is 824.0 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba fines is 741.0 yuan/ton [3]. - Price indexes: The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 107.4 dollars/ton, and the Platts 62% Fe is 107.8 dollars/ton [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2699.3 tons, a decrease of 117.8 tons or 4.2%. The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3323.2 tons, an increase of 44.8 tons or 1.4%. The national monthly import volume is 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 500.6 tons or 4.3% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 234.7 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons or 0.7%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) is 330.6 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons or 1.1%. The national monthly pig iron output is 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 49.7 tons or 0.8%. The national monthly crude steel output is 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 149.3 tons or 2.0% [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory (weekly, compared to Monday) is 15237.39 tons, an increase of 27.3 tons or 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8942.5 tons, a decrease of 58.8 tons or 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 20.0 days, unchanged from the previous value [3]. Report on the Coke Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Coke: The coke futures are expected to oscillate. The reference range is 1550 - 1700. The first round of price reduction for coke has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price reduction in the short term. The supply side has some changes in production, and the demand side is affected by steel mill losses and maintenance. The inventory is slightly increasing at a medium level. An arbitrage strategy of short - 01 and long - 05 for coke is recommended [7]. - Coking coal: The coking coal futures are expected to oscillate within the range of 1050 - 1150. The spot market is weak, and the supply side has production changes. The demand side's replenishment demand is weakening. An arbitrage strategy of short - 01 and long - 05 for coking coal is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Section Coke - related Prices and Spreads - Spot prices: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) is 1662 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) is 1603 yuan/ton [7]. - Futures prices: The coke 01 contract is 1625 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract is 1752 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: The 01 - contract basis is 5 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is - 149 yuan/ton [7]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - Spot prices: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) is 1300 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) is 1205 yuan/ton [7]. - Futures prices: The coking coal 01 contract is 1071 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract is 1165 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: The 01 - contract basis is - 22 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is 20 yuan/ton [7]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons or 1.7%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 0.2% [7]. - Coking coal production: The output of sample coal mines (weekly) has a certain change, and the daily output of coal mines has decreased slightly [7]. Demand - Coke demand: Affected by the decline in hot metal output of steel mills, the demand for coke is weakening [7]. - Coking coal demand: With the recovery of coking plant profits and a slight increase in production, the replenishment demand for coking coal is weakening [7]. Inventory Changes - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory is 884.7 tons, an increase of 4.0 tons or 0.5%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 71.8 tons, an increase of 6.5 tons or 9.94%. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 625.5 tons, an increase of 3.2 tons or 0.5%. The port inventory is 187.4 tons, a decrease of 5.6 tons or - 2.94% [7]. - Coking coal inventory: The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 1010.3 tons, a decrease of 27.9 tons or - 2.7%. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 801.3 tons, an increase of 4.2 tons or 0.5%. The port inventory is 294.5 tons, an increase of 3.0 tons or 1.0% [7].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each sector, highlighting the complex interplay of supply, demand, economic indicators, and geopolitical factors [1][2][3]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices were in high - level oscillations on Tuesday. Fundamentals include statements from the US Treasury Secretary, ADP employment data, and various inventory changes. The strategy is to take partial profits on gold in the short - term and wait for buying opportunities at lower support levels [1]. - **Silver**: Overseas market tightness re - emerged, and short - term long positions are recommended [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices hit a new high. The proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts in London copper increased significantly, indicating a seller's market. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract rose slightly. With increased production capacity and improved demand, it is expected to oscillate upward [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract declined. With increased supply and stable demand, it is expected to oscillate weakly [2][3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply may decrease in December, and demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to move within the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply is increasing, and demand is expected to decrease in December. The short - term upward drive is limited, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract rose. Production is stable, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, the price center has moved up due to a short - squeeze, and in the long - term, it depends on the progress of the storage platform [3]. - **Tin**: Prices rose significantly. Supply is tight, and there are concerns about short - squeeze risks. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures are at a large discount. It is recommended to short the 2605 contract and short the steel mill's profit [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weakening, and the futures are at a slight discount. It is recommended to exit and wait, and short the steel mill's profit [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weakening, and the futures are at a premium. It is recommended to short the 2605 contract and short the steel mill's profit [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans continued to decline. Supply is mixed, and demand is in a game. The US soybeans are in oscillation, and the domestic market depends on tariff policies and production [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices varied regionally. Supply and demand are temporarily tight, but new production is expected to increase. The futures price is expected to oscillate upward [5][6]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil market declined slightly. Supply is high in some areas and affected by floods in others, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term but oscillate overall [6]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices oscillated weakly, and domestic cotton prices rebounded. International supply and demand are affected by planting area changes, and domestic demand is mixed. It is recommended to buy at low prices [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices declined, and spot prices decreased slightly. Supply pressure is decreasing, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: Futures and spot prices declined. Supply is abundant, and demand is seasonally increasing, but prices are expected to weaken seasonally [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply pressure is rising but slowing, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices [7]. - **PVC**: The price continued to oscillate at the bottom. Supply is increasing, and demand is seasonally weakening. It is recommended to short [8]. - **Glass**: The price rebounded from the bottom. Supply is affected by cold - repair, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **PP**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rose and then fell. Supply is affected by sanctions and production plans, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Styrene**: The price of the main contract oscillated slightly. Supply and demand are improving marginally, and in the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy styrene profit at low prices [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is affected by coal prices. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX: The PXN continues to widen and is in a high - level volatile market. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on BZ, and engage in a 5 - 9 calendar spread. There is an expected contraction in PX supply due to planned maintenance, while PTA demand is rising. However, the end of the overseas gasoline squeeze and the decline in MX blending fuel may impact PX valuation [1][4]. - PTA: It is in a high - level volatile market. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA, and engage in a 5 - 9 calendar spread. The cost is supported by PX, but there may be a negative feedback from the terminal market from late December to early January [1][5]. - MEG: The holding willingness is decreasing, and the price fluctuates in the range of 3800 - 4000. Hold the strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA. The overall supply of ethylene glycol is tightening, with expected declines in imports and port inventories [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Prices**: PX, PTA, and MEG futures prices showed different changes. PX closed at 6912 with a - 0.26% change, PTA at 4752 with a - 0.21% change, and MEG at 3877 with a - 0.13% change [2]. - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR China was at 850.67 dollars/ton, PTA in East China was at 4720 yuan/ton, and MEG spot was at 3876 yuan/ton. PX and PTA prices increased, while MEG decreased [2]. - **Processing Fees**: PX - naphtha spread was 265.33 dollars/ton, PTA processing fee was 159.83 yuan/ton. The PX - naphtha spread increased, while the PTA processing fee decreased [2]. Market Dynamics - **PX**: The prices of toluene and xylene in East China were stable in the afternoon. The PX price rose, with a 1 - month Asian spot trading at 849 dollars/ton [2]. - **MEG**: A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South China plans to shut down for maintenance next week for about 10 days [3]. - **Polyester**: The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of about 50% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers declined moderately, with an average sales rate of 61% by 3:00 pm [3][4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Hold the long PX and short BZ strategy and 5 - 9 calendar spread. PX supply is expected to shrink due to planned maintenance, while PTA demand is increasing. The PX - MX spread is widening, and PXN has risen significantly [4]. - **PTA**: Hold the long PX and short PTA strategy and 5 - 9 calendar spread. The cost is supported by PX, but there may be a negative feedback from the terminal market [5]. - **MEG**: The price fluctuates between 3800 - 4000, and focus on the calendar spread. Hold the long MEG and short PTA strategy. The overall supply of ethylene glycol is tightening, with expected declines in imports and port inventories [5].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The upward space of the methanol 01 contract is quite limited. The main reasons are that the overall profit of downstream MTO is poor, and if the methanol price rises further, it may lead to downstream parking and negative demand feedback; downstream replenishment willingness is weak due to profit levels and high inventory, and inland profit is poor, which restricts the performance of inland methanol prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - Methanol futures prices: MA01 decreased by 4 yuan/ton (-0.19%) to 2132 yuan/ton; MA05 remained unchanged at 2232 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 9 yuan/ton (-0.40%) to 2228 yuan/ton [1] - Methanol spot prices: Increases in various regions, such as 12.5 yuan/ton (0.59%) in Taicang, 10 yuan/ton (0.45%) in Shandong, 15 yuan/ton (0.72%) in Guangdong, etc. [1] - Coal spot prices: Decreases in various regions, such as 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.42%) for Bu Shui Duo Si Q5500, 10 yuan/ton (-1.50%) for Datong Q5500, etc. [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: Remained unchanged in Hohhot and Chongqing [1] Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit increased by 72.6 yuan/ton (42.91%) to 241.8 yuan/ton; natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 1270 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit: Decreases in most downstream products, such as 13.8 yuan/ton (-6.87%) for Northwest MTO, 22 yuan/ton (-2.78%) for East China MTO, etc. [1] Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a strong sideways trend, opening at 2134 yuan/ton, closing at 2132 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 1.1983 million lots and open interest of 0.9786 million lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign: Six methanol plants with a total capacity of 9.9 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are still under maintenance, and the remaining plants are operating at low loads. The daily methanol output has dropped to 14,400 tons. Attention should be paid to the number of loading ports in December [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the short put option of the 01 contract until maturity [1]