2025 年 8 月 15 日 沥青：华东出货局部好转 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,510 | -0.68% | 3,510 | 0.00% | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,472 | -0.88% | 3,466 | -0.17% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2509 | 手 | 13,139 | 705 | 37,544 | (3,639) | | | BU2510 | 手 | 153,819 | 30,630 | 224,823 | (176) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 73550 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价差变动 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives short - term investment outlooks for individual commodities: - **Short - term bullish**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil [1] - **Cautiously bullish**: Cotton, red dates, live pigs [1] Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: In a large - range market due to the intersection of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs. After the US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report, the final US soybean production and ending stocks decreased month - on - month. However, considering the price of Argentine soybean meal and the limited reduction in US soybean production, be cautious when chasing long positions [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Supported by factors such as the expected decline in rapeseed imports from August to October, 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed. But the high inventory and policy implementation may affect the market sentiment [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable for market consumption expectations. Although there was profit - taking recently, the overall trend is still bullish on dips [1]. - **Cotton**: The expectation of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. The short - term focus is on the supply before the new cotton is on the market. The rapid de - stocking and the lack of import quotas support the price. With the "Golden September and Silver October" approaching, the demand is expected to improve, but the remaining upside space may be limited [1]. - **Red Dates**: There is still a large divergence in the market regarding the reduction in production. The expected total production of Xinjiang southern grey dates in the 2025/26 season is between 50 - 58 million tons. The short - term speculation around the purchase price before November is beneficial for the bullish trend [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply pressure is high, but the long - term reduction in capacity by leading enterprises may push up the far - month contracts. The situation of "weak reality and strong expectation" is obvious, and it is recommended to establish long positions in far - month contracts on dips [1]. Summary by Commodity Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: Futures price was 3157 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3118.29 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The soybean crushing profit decreased, and the basis of some contracts increased [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 893.8 million tons, up 70.10 million tons week - on - week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 710.56 million tons, up 8.38% week - on - week; the bean粕 inventory was 100.35 million tons, down 3.66% week - on - week [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: Futures price was 2686 yuan/ton, down 1.36% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2663.16 yuan/ton, down 2.28%. The rapeseed spot crushing profit decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 13.88 million tons, up 2.28 million tons week - on - week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 3.2 million tons, up 0.5 million tons week - on - week [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: Futures price was 9368 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the previous day; the national average price was 9408 yuan/ton, down 1.23%. The import cost decreased slightly [7]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 59.98 million tons, up 3.02% week - on - week and 1.12% year - on - year [8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures prices of some contracts increased slightly, while the ICE cotton main contract decreased. The domestic spot price increased slightly [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the US cotton condition weakened slightly, while India's sowing area increased. Domestically, Xinjiang's new cotton production is expected to increase, and the commercial inventory decreased, providing support for the price. The downstream demand is expected to improve during the "Golden September and Silver October" [10][11]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The main contract CJ2601 decreased 0.74% to 11460 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions remained stable [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The new - season jujubes are in the fruit - setting period. The market focuses on the weather. The estimated new - season production is expected to decrease, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down [14]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2511 decreased 1.52% to 13900 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the planned August出栏 volume increased, and the supply pressure is high. In the long term, the reduction in capacity by leading enterprises may push up the price. The current demand is in the off - season [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: With both supply and demand booming in the producing areas, a low - buying strategy is recommended [2]. - Soybean oil: Bullish factors have been fully priced in, and there may be a correction at high levels [2]. - Soybean meal: US soybeans have risen and then fallen, and the Dalian soybean meal futures will adjust and fluctuate [2]. - Soybean No.1: The futures price will fluctuate [2]. - Corn: It will move in a fluctuating manner [2]. - Sugar: It will consolidate within a range [2]. - Eggs: The price will adjust in a fluctuating way [2]. - Live pigs: Second - fattening has entered the market, but the spot performance is below expectations [2]. - Peanuts: The near - term contracts are stronger than the far - term ones [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 9,294 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.38%, and the night - session closing price was 9,386 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.99%. Soybean oil's daytime closing price was 8,540 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 8,512 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.33% [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: India's palm oil imports in July were 855,695 tons, down from 955,683 tons in June. The total vegetable oil imports in July were 1,579,041 tons, up from 1,549,825 tons in June. ICE Canadian canola futures closed down 0.8%, and CBOT soybean futures fell 1.5% due to profit - taking and export concerns. CONAB and ABIOVE both raised their forecasts for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production and exports [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [9]. 2. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean No.1 2511's daytime closing price was 4,041 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.13%, and the night - session closing price was 4,049 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54%. DCE soybean meal 2601's daytime closing price was 3,157 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.38%, and the night - session closing price was 3,140 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.76% [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 14, CBOT soybean futures fell from a six - week high due to profit - taking and export concerns. The US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed a significant reduction in 2024/25 US soybean net sales [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 is 0 [12]. 3. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,281 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase during the day and 2,279 yuan/ton with a 0.09% decline at night. The closing price of C2511 was 2,202 yuan/ton with a 0.05% decline during the day and 2,197 yuan/ton with a 0.23% decline at night [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port collection prices were stable, while prices in Northeast and North China were weak. Imported sorghum and barley had different price quotes for different shipment periods [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [15]. 4. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.58 cents/pound with a 0.27 - cent decline. The mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase. The futures主力 price was 5,659 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan increase [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon rainfall has weakened. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June. CAOC made production, consumption, and import forecasts for the 24/25 and 25/26 domestic sugar seasons. ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 season [16][17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [19]. 5. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,191 yuan/500 kilograms with a 3.01% decline, and the closing price of egg 2601 was 3,578 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.11% decline [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [20]. 6. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,930 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 13,550 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 15,190 yuan/ton. The prices of futures contracts such as live pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 all showed year - on - year declines [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is - 1 [24]. - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increased, while散户 were forced to hold back pigs. Demand growth was limited, and market pressure was high. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, and the industrial willingness to deliver is increasing. There is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure maintains an inverse spread [25]. 7. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of important spot peanuts such as Liaoning 308 common peanuts remained unchanged. The closing price of PK510 was 8,058 yuan/ton with a 1.03% decline, and the closing price of PK511 was 7,884 yuan/ton with a 1.40% decline [27]. - **Spot Market Focus**: New peanuts have been gradually coming onto the market in small quantities in some areas, with uneven quality and small supply. Most areas' prices are stable or slightly weak [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward trend in the energy - chemical sector. Most energy - chemical products are facing weak fundamentals and show a downward trend in the short - term technical analysis, with investment strategies mainly suggesting holding short positions [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: In September, the production increase rate continued at 547,000 barrels per day. The end of the peak season in the US led to weak apparent demand, and the supply - demand fundamentals continued to deteriorate. Geopolitically, the US and Russia agreed to hold cease - fire negotiations on the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term and hourly - level short - term are both in a downward structure. After today's decline, the daily - level break - down was confirmed, and the short - term pressure on the hourly level moved down to 490. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [3]. (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: In August, demand was still in the off - season and remained weak. The supply start - up rate remained at a high level of around 77%. With the commissioning of new plants, supply pressure would further increase, and inventory pressure was relatively high year - on - year [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined, testing the lower edge of the 15 - minute oscillation. The short - term pressure above is at 7375. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [6]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: According to the seasonal pattern, prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year, the supply side has difficulty increasing production. Although there is some impact from the rainy season in the producing areas, there is no extreme weather. Short - term tire start - up has improved, but high tire inventory still suppresses the expectation of further start - up recovery. The mid - term fundamental driver is downward [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term and hourly - level short - term are both in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined. The 15 - minute small cycle turned down, and there was a reversal signal at the 15950 pressure level on the hourly level. There is an opportunity to try short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 15950 [9]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The demand side of tires is expected to remain weak in the medium term. The supply side has not resumed production after maintenance, and production is higher than new capacity, so it is bearish in the medium term. Short - term support comes from the low inventory of upstream butadiene [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in an oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined. There was a confirmed reversal signal at the 11950 short - term pressure level of the 10 - contract. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [12]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The upstream PX device is operating stably. The start - up of downstream terminals has increased at a low level during the off - peak to peak season transition. There is no major short - term contradiction, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and had a long negative line. After a short - term break - down, the decline accelerated, and the short - term pressure above moved down to 6735. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [16]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Polyester demand is weak. The supply - side start - up is at a medium level year - on - year. Short - term inventory has turned to accumulation. There is no obvious contradiction, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and declined during the day. After a short - term break - down, the decline may accelerate. The short - term pressure above still focuses on 4760. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [19]. (7) PP - **Logic**: In the off - season of demand, downstream start - up is weak. With the commissioning of new capacity and the restart of maintenance devices, inventory in each link of the industrial chain continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. Also, pay attention to the trend of crude oil [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated during the day without changing the downward structure. The hourly pressure level of 7195 is far away, and the 15 - minute cycle pressure of 7090 can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The supply - side start - up rate has rebounded to 73% after two consecutive weeks of increase, remaining at the highest level in history year - on - year. The arrival in July was low due to Iranian plant shutdowns, but the Iranian plants resumed in August, and the arrival is expected to increase significantly. Downstream demand is differentiated. Under high - supply pressure, port inventory has reached the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and the fundamental driver is weak [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in a downward/oscillatory structure, and the short - term is in a downward structure. After a long negative line with increased positions and volume today, the short - term break - down accelerated, and the short - term pressure above is 2400. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [24]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: Some supply - side devices have ended maintenance, and the start - up rate has rebounded to a high level of 77.8% year - on - year. Demand is difficult to improve due to the downward real - estate market and the off - season. The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation is evident, and the fundamental driver is bearish [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in an upward structure, and the hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. After a long negative line with increased positions and volume today, it is still on a downward path, and the short - term pressure above is 5070. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy - chemical products, but the expectation of inventory accumulation also limits the upward space. Pay attention to the start time of inventory accumulation [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in an oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it declined with volume. Wait for the confirmation of a break - down and then the decline will accelerate. The short - term pressure above is 4415. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [30]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The start - up rate has increased, and with the commissioning of new capacity, the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream start - up rate remains at a low level year - on - year. The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is evident, and the supply - demand driver is bearish [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level mid - term is in an oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillatory structure. Today, it oscillated during the day, and the hourly - level structure is not clear. The 15 - minute level is in a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle and hold short positions on the 15 - minute cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7320 [32]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The supply side continued to increase production last week, with a month - on - month increase of 45,000 tons in output. On the demand side, in addition to the rigid demand for glass, speculative demand has weakened. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased significantly again, and the heavy - soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The inventory pressure is large, and the supply - demand pressure of soda ash remains high. The anti - involution has no substantial impact on the soda ash supply [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated. The 09 and 01 contracts still have differentiated structures, with the 09 contract declining and the 01 contract rising. There was a reversal signal at the 1295 pressure level of the 09 contract during the session. There is an opportunity to try short positions on the 09 contract, with a stop - loss reference of 1310 [33]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: On the demand side, the start - up of alumina remains at a high level, and the start - up of non - aluminum demand viscose staple fiber has also increased and remains at a high level. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has also increased rapidly, the chlor - alkali profit has increased, and the caustic soda start - up has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals remain weak [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in an oscillatory structure. The 09 and 01 contracts are still differentiated. The 01 contract has a strong structure but performed weakly today, and the 09 contract has a weaker structure but performed strongly today. At the same time, the 09 contract shows signs of breaking through the 2540 pressure. The strategy is to start from the 15 - minute cycle of the 09 contract and try short positions after breaking through the 15 - minute 2515 support, with a stop - loss at today's high [37].

| Millio | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月14日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，棉花现货主流销售基差暂稳，现货成交一般。纯棉纱本周交投好转，价格稳中略偏强。截至7月底，商业库 在为218.98万吨，环比减少64万吨，同比减少58.8万吨。其中新疆疆内棉花库存为119.83万吨，环比减少52.74万吨，同比减少 35.65万吨，国内7月份库存消化尚可，预计8月份消化环比好转。宏观上市场对于 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean futures closed higher, reaching a one - and - a - half - month high, and the upward trend is expected to drive the DCE soybean meal to follow a relatively strong oscillation. The DCE soybean is expected to have a corrective oscillation [1][3]. - The significant reduction in the USDA's soybean production forecast due to a large cut in planting area is the main reason for the increase in soybean prices [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 4107 yuan/ton during the day session, up 74 yuan (+1.83%), and 4080 yuan/ton at night, down 7 yuan (-0.17%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3163 yuan/ton during the day session, up 89 yuan (+2.90%), and 3166 yuan/ton at night, up 21 yuan (+0.67%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1042 cents/bushel, up 9.75 cents (+0.94%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 297.2 dollars/short ton, up 5.4 dollars (+1.85%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the soybean meal (43%) price is 3080 - 3110 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China, it is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton; in South China, it is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 7.46 million tons per day, and the inventory was 96.09 million tons per week [1]. Macro and Industry News - On August 13, 2025, the CBOT soybean futures closed higher for the third consecutive day, reaching a one - and - a - half - month high. The USDA significantly reduced the soybean production forecast due to a 2.5 million - acre cut in planting area, which was far lower than market expectations [3]. - Analysts expect the net sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons for the week ending August 7 to be 200,000 - 700,000 tons and 400,000 - 900,000 tons respectively [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean is 0 (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract in the day session on the reporting day) [3].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 气候中性预期，美豆种植天气基本顺利。国内大豆及豆粕累库阶段，8 月累库速度 | | | 较 7 | 月预计有所放缓。中美贸易关税成为豆粕下档关键成本支撑。在基本面偏弱及 | | | | 中美贸易关税成本支撑的多空因素交织作用下，大区间行情对待。昨日凌晨美农公 | | 豆粕 | 布 8 短线偏多 | 月供需报告，意外大幅调低美豆种植面积，但调增了单产，导致最终美豆产量 | | ★★ | | 及期末库存环比下调，产量环比调减 116 万吨，叠加中国发布对加籽反倾销调查初 | | | | 步政策，菜粕封停。豆粕价格昨日大幅上涨。但考虑阿根廷豆粕价格以及美豆产量 | | | | 环比调减幅度有限。豆粕追多操作需注意仓位管理和风控，警惕菜粕滞涨后的调整 | | | | 风险。主力【3120，3280】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽新年单产存在调减风险。国内油厂菜籽环比去库菜 | | | | 粕环比累库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。8 月至 10 月菜籽进口同比 | | 菜粕 | | 大幅 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the hog market on August 14, 2025, indicating that the spot market is mainly weak [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 13,930 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50; Sichuan's is 13,550 yuan/ton with a 200 increase; Guangdong's is 15,290 yuan/ton with no change [3] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are 13,950 yuan/ton, 14,045 yuan/ton, and 14,295 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 15, - 185, and - 130 [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For hog2509, the trading volume is 9,835 lots (up 3,466 from the previous day) and the open interest is 18,627 lots (down 3,281 from the previous day); for hog2511, the trading volume is 47,508 lots (up 20,637) and the open interest is 66,230 lots (up 5,348); for hog2601, the trading volume is 18,115 lots (up 8,296) and the open interest is 45,776 lots (up 941) [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are - 20 yuan/ton, - 115 yuan/ton, and - 365 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 65, 235, and 180; the hog 9 - 11 spread is - 95 yuan/ton (up 170 year - on - year), and the hog 11 - 1 spread is - 250 yuan/ton (down 55 year - on - year) [3] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view, with the range of [-2, 2] for trend intensity and different levels of strength classification [4] Group 4: Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increases, while individual farmers are forced to hold back hogs. Demand growth is limited, leading to large market pressure. Recent daily transactions are poor, and it's difficult to absorb market supply [5] - The September contract is entering the pre - delivery month, and on the tenth trading day, it enters the second phase of position limits. The futures price is still at a significant premium to the warehouse receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. Attention should be paid to the market of premium convergence [5] - Recently, the macro sentiment has strong support for the far - end contracts, resulting in a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations. The spread structure maintains a reverse arbitrage, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro "anti - involution" sentiment fluctuates. Fundamentally, both zinc ore and zinc ingot supplies are increasing, demand is in the off - season, inventories are accumulating, and the continuous decline of LME zinc inventories overseas provides some support. Short - term zinc prices are expected to move in a range [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market Price and Market Indicators - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,750 yuan/ton, down 0.15% [1]. - Futures main contract closing price was 16,930 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [1]. - Shanghai lead basis was - 180 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [1]. - LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,988 dollars/ton, down 1.39% [1]. - Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.52, up 1.50% [1]. Supply - related Information - The "Limit Specification for Harmful Elements in Heavy Non - ferrous Metal Concentrate Products" will be implemented on September 1, 2025, mainly restricting the entry of imported lead concentrates with excessive harmful elements, but currently having no obvious impact on supply [1]. - Some lead smelting enterprises in Henan may face vehicle transportation restrictions during August 26 - September 3 due to environmental protection emergency control [1]. - South American mining company Nexa Resources' Cerro Pasco complex partially shut down temporarily, but it has not had a substantial impact on production [1]. Market Fundamentals - Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, processing fees are likely to rise, but it has not affected smelter operations significantly. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase [1]. - For recycled lead, waste lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, raw materials are in short supply, some smelters cut or stop production, and the overall production is at a relatively low level [1]. Demand - side Situation - Some battery enterprises' operations declined last week due to high temperatures and poor demand, and downstream purchasing was cautious after the lead price rebounded [1]. Zinc Market Price and Market Indicators - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,490 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [1]. - Futures main contract closing price was 22,600 yuan/ton, down 0.13% [1]. - Shanghai zinc basis was - 110 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [1]. - LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,811.5 dollars/ton, down 1.28% [1]. - Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.04, up 1.16% [1]. Supply - related Information - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and production is expected to increase [1]. Market Fundamentals - The cost - side support for zinc is weakening, smelter profits and production enthusiasm are improving, and the output is increasing significantly [1]. Demand - side Situation - Downstream zinc buyers purchased more when the price was low last week, and the restocking sentiment weakened after the price rebounded [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of various futures markets, including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural futures. Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, it predicts the price trends of different futures contracts on August 13, 2025, and also presents the market conditions on August 12, 2025. Additionally, it includes relevant macro - economic news and policies that may impact the futures markets [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation on August 13, 2025. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4173 and 4200 points, and support levels at 4131 and 4113 points [2][19]. - **Bond Futures**: Ten - year and thirty - year bond futures are likely to be in a weak - biased oscillation on August 13, 2025. T2509 will test support levels at 108.30 and 108.21 yuan, and resistance levels at 108.47 and 108.52 yuan; TL2509 will test support levels at 117.8 and 117.6 yuan, and resistance levels at 118.3 and 118.5 yuan [2][33][35]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures (AU2510) are likely to be in a consolidation phase on August 13, 2025, with support levels at 773.8 and 768.6 yuan/g, and resistance levels at 779.5 and 781.8 yuan/g. Silver futures (AG2510) are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance levels at 9239 and 9281 yuan/kg, and support levels at 9130 and 9100 yuan/kg [2][38][43]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are likely to be in a strong - biased oscillation on August 13, 2025. For example, CU2509 will attack resistance levels at 79700 and 80100 yuan/ton, with support levels at 79100 and 78800 yuan/ton [2][3][46]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures (SC2509) are likely to be in a weak - biased oscillation on August 13, 2025, testing support levels at 488 and 485 yuan/barrel, and resistance levels at 495 and 498 yuan/barrel [2][93]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and palm oil futures are likely to be in a strong - biased oscillation on August 13, 2025. For example, OI601 will attack resistance levels at 10253 and 10350 yuan/ton, with support levels at 10000 and 9916 yuan/ton [2][6][106]. 2. Macro - economic News and Policies - **Tariff Policy**: China and the US have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days, while retaining the remaining 10% tariffs [8]. - **Loan Subsidy Policies**: The Ministry of Finance and other departments have issued subsidy policies for personal consumption loans and service - industry business loans [8][9]. - **US - Russia Summit**: US President Trump and Russian President Putin will hold a one - on - one meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15, 2025 [9]. - **US CPI Data**: In July 2025, the US CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year [9]. 3. Market Conditions on August 12, 2025 - **Domestic Futures**: Most domestic commodity futures closed higher. Coking coal rose nearly 7%, and soda ash rose over 5%. However, rapeseed meal fell 3% [12]. - **International Markets**: COMEX gold futures fell 0.17%, and international crude oil futures declined. Some international agricultural products, such as ICE raw sugar futures, rose, while some, like CBOT corn futures, fell [12][13]. - **Stock Markets**: A - shares and US stocks closed higher, while European stocks showed mixed performance [16][17][18].