期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦煤低位整理 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 基本面支撑不足，焦炭低位运行 | 备注： 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 12 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3133 | 44 | 热卷01 | 3300 | 45 | | 螺纹05 | 3165 | 21 | 热卷05 | 3311 | 17 | | 螺纹10 | 3211 | 15 | 热卷10 | 3330 | 12 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2970 | -10 | 张家港废钢 | 2090 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3130 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3190 | 0 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3310 | 20 | 热卷:上海 | 3280 | 10 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3350 | 1 0 | 热卷:杭州 | 3330 | 20 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3500 | 0 | 热卷:广州 | 3290 | 10 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3380 | 20 | 热卷:成都 | 3350 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 ...

黄金最新行情走势—— 昨日黄金市场早盘小幅高开在4520.9美元/盎司，后行情先回落，日线最低给到了4510.1美元/盎司，后 行情强势拉升，日线最高触及到了4630.7美元/盎司，后整理，日线最终收线在了4598.5美元/盎司，日 线以一根上影线长于下影线的大阳线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，日线有效破位前期历史高点，今日重 点关注支撑效果。综合来看，刘长景总结：黄金上涨之后在4561一带形成了震荡区间，形成了第一支 撑，计算支撑多空分水岭在4535美元一线。今日操作上考虑回撤布局多单为主，高空为辅，上方关注 4618-4638美元阻力，下方关注4562-4535美元支撑。 资讯—— 1月13日，现货黄金一度突破4600美元关口，创下历史新高，最终收涨1.95%，报4596.87美元/盎司；现 货白银一度站上创纪录的86美元大关，最终收涨6.52%，报85.10美元/盎司。基准的10年期美债收益率 最终收报4.182%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.543%。因市场担忧伊朗在国内局势 动荡期间可能减少出口，国际原油走高。WTI原油最终收涨1.84%，报59.85美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收 涨1. ...

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 13 日星期二 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周一铁矿收涨。夜盘收跌。 【重要资 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 乐观氛围延续，焦煤偏强运行 | | | | 震荡 | | 偏强 | | | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 成本强支撑，焦炭小幅上行 | | | | 震荡 | | 偏强 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡 ...

2026 年 01 月 13 日 短纤：震荡偏强，多 TA 空 PF 持有 20260113 瓶片：震荡偏强，月差正套持有 20260113 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | ୧484 | ୧48୧ | -2 | PF02-03 | -18 | -18 | 0 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6502 | 6504 | -2 | PF03-04 | -58 | -36 | -22 | | | 短纤2604 | ୧୧୧୦ | 6540 | 20 | PF主力基差 | 18 | 21 | -3 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 137103 | 135252 | 1851 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.520 | 6.525 | -5 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 75563 | 99224 | -23661 | 短纤产销率 | 8 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The rubber market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The data source for fundamental information is Longzhong Information, Flush iFinD, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rubber is 0, with a range of [- 2,2]. - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [2] 3.3 Industry News - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.62% (19,800 tons). Bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%, and general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13% [3][4] - The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points. For general trade warehouses, the inbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [4] - Tire companies' production schedules vary. Some semi - steel tire companies' foreign trade orders have increased significantly, leading to a notable increase in capacity utilization, while some full - steel tire companies face inventory pressure, limiting their capacity utilization. Overall sales pressure remains [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Valuation is high, and caution is advised when chasing long positions [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Raw materials are stronger than finished products, and steel mill profits continue to compress [2][6]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: For silicon ferroalloy, the commodity market sentiment remains strong, and the futures market fluctuates widely; for manganese ferroalloy, overseas mining companies have raised their quotes, and the futures market also fluctuates widely [2][11]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Due to event fermentation, they are oscillating at high levels [2][14][15]. - **Logs**: The market fluctuates repeatedly [2][20]. 3. Summary by Product Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 822.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.98% from the previous day. Among imported ores, the price of Carajas fines (65%) rose 5 yuan to 911 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines (61.5%) rose 3 yuan to 829 yuan/ton. The trend strength is 0 [4]. - **News**: In December 2025, the national consumer price index rose 0.8% year - on - year [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The RB2605 contract of rebar closed at 3,165 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 0.60%. The HC2605 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,311 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.55%. According to the weekly data on January 8, rebar production increased by 2.82 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 1 ton, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 21.77 tons, while the apparent demand decreased by 44.2 tons [6][7]. - **News**: In late December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 18.07 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.643 million tons, a 11.0% decrease from the previous period [7]. Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy - **Fundamentals**: The silicon ferroalloy 2603 contract closed at 5,698 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The manganese ferroalloy 2603 contract closed at 5,930 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. The spot price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia rose 50 yuan to 5,350 yuan/ton [11]. - **News**: On January 12, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi decreased by 25 yuan/ton. Jupiter, South32, and other companies raised their manganese ore quotes for February 2026 [12][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The JM2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1,238 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan or 3.6%. The J2605 contract of coke closed at 1,770 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 1.3%. The price of Linfen low - sulfur primary coking coal remained at 1,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Lvliang low - sulfur primary coking coal rose 52 yuan to 1,455 yuan/ton [15]. - **News**: On January 12, the CCI metallurgical coal index of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal rose 30 yuan to 1,260 yuan/ton. Some coking enterprises in Ordos will increase the price of tamping dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton from January 15 [15]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The 2603 contract of logs closed at 774.5 yuan/ton, down 0.2% from the previous day. The trading volume of the 2603 contract decreased by 28.3%. The spot - 2603 spread was - 33 yuan/ton, down 3% [21]. - **News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, slightly higher than 51.2 in November, indicating a further increase in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [23].

期货研究报告 2026年01月12日 棕榈油期货：区间震荡，重心上移 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：（上周）棕榈油现货与期货同步小幅上涨，呈 "先抑后扬、震荡偏强"，核心 驱动为产地季节性减产预期与宏观情绪回暖，国内港口库存累积压制基差。 主产国数据：马来西亚棕榈油局MPOB：马来西亚12月棕榈油进口为33292吨，环比增长43.64%；产量为 1829761吨，环比减少5.46%；出口为1316522吨，环比增长8.52%；库存量为3050598吨，环比增长7.58%； 预测2025年马来西亚棕榈油产量将达到创纪录的2028万吨，高于2024年的1934万吨。 展望：短期受期货带动与备货需求支撑，但累库压力限制涨幅，高价成交乏力。棕榈油价格重心上移， 操作建议区间交易为主。 关注因素：1.马来西亚棕榈油产量及出口数据；2.豆棕价差修复变化；3.印尼B50生物柴油政策落地进度 等。 2、本周基本面数据周度变化： | | | | 棕榈油船期报价及进口利润测算（2026.01.05） | | | | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and slightly increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades on dips, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For Shanghai aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and cautious demand. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trades, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and off - season demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades on dips, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24,650 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,866 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,136 US dollars/ton, up 45 US dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 23,340 yuan/ton, up 355 yuan [2] - **Spreads**: The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum was - 85 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; that of alumina was - 197 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; that of cast aluminum alloy was - 290 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan [2] - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum were 379,081 lots, up 190,088 lots; that of alumina were 545,795 lots, up 8,133 lots; that of cast aluminum alloy were 21,990 lots, up 342 lots [2] - **Inventories**: LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 51,775 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventories were 497,825 tons, down 1,925 tons; Shanghai aluminum SHFE inventories were 143,828 tons, up 14,010 tons; cast aluminum alloy SHFE inventories were 73,288 tons, down 505 tons; Shanghai aluminum SHFE warrants were 97,413 tons, up 6,501 tons [2] - **Other Indicators**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was - 61,512 lots, down 14,748 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.86, down 0.01; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy in SHFE were 69,285 tons, down 637 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 24,340 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,580 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 24,060 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan [2] - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 610 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 8.30 US dollars/ton, up 14.67 US dollars; the basis of alumina was - 286 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Prices**: The price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region was 5,910 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 18,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; that in Shandong metal scrap was 18,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2] - **Production and Utilization Rates**: The alumina production was 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 85.00%, down 1.51 percentage points; the alumina demand (electrolytic aluminum part) was 705.96 million tons, down 24.27 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance was 26.58 million tons, down 11.40 million tons [2] - **Trade Volume**: China's import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; the export volume was 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons; the export volume of alumina was 17.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons; the import volume was 23.24 million tons, up 4.31 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply - related**: The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 66.90 million tons, up 0.70 million tons; the primary aluminum import volume was 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the primary aluminum export volume was 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons; the electrolytic aluminum total capacity was 4,536.20 million tons, up 12.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 98.31%, up 0.10 percentage points [2] - **Demand - related**: The aluminum product production was 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 57.00 million tons, up 7.00 million tons; the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 3.06 million tons, down 0.03 million tons; the aluminum alloy production was 173.90 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The automobile production was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24.00 million vehicles [2] - **Real Estate**: The national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 21.09%, up 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.06%, up 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 33.65%, up 0.0890 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.70, up 0.0471 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points [2] - The Fed's expectation of a rate cut in January 2026 was completely dashed. In December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 50,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% [2] - The State Council executive meeting deployed a series of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination [2] - The National Commerce Work Conference pointed out that in 2026, the national business system should focus on eight aspects of work [2] - In December 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.261 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 14%. It is expected that the retail sales volume of the auto market in 2026 will remain flat, and new energy vehicles will grow by about 10% [2]