Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the U.S. basic "reciprocal" tariff rate will increase from 10% to 15%, with tariffs on copper and key minerals reaching 50%, potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures and suppressing economic growth [1] Economic Impact - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth in light of the new tariff assumptions, reflecting the impact of import tariffs [1] - The core inflation forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 3.4% to 3.3%, while the 2026 forecast has been increased from 2.6% to 2.7%, and the 2027 forecast has been raised from 2.0% to 2.4% [1] - Tariffs are expected to cumulatively raise core prices by 1.7% over the next 2-3 years [1] GDP Growth Projections - The tariffs are projected to reduce GDP growth by 1 percentage point this year, 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and 0.3 percentage points in 2027 [1] - Consequently, Goldman Sachs has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida indicates that consumer inflation has exceeded expectations, with rising food prices spreading beyond rice, leading to increased inflationary pressures [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - Consumer inflation in Japan is surpassing previous forecasts, indicating a shift in economic conditions [1] - The rise in food prices is no longer limited to rice, suggesting a broader impact on the overall food market [1] - The expansion of inflationary pressures may influence monetary policy decisions moving forward [1]

Group 1 - Global investors withdrew a net $5.3 billion from equity funds in the week ending July 16, marking the first weekly net outflow since June 25 [2] - The U.S. inflation report indicated the largest consumer price increase in five months, influencing investor sentiment and leading to a net withdrawal of $11.75 billion from U.S. equity funds [4] - In contrast, European and Asian funds saw net inflows of $4.66 billion and $718 million, respectively [4] Group 2 - Global bond funds experienced a net inflow of approximately $12.85 billion for the 13th consecutive week, with notable inflows in euro-denominated, short-term, high-yield, and government bond funds [7] - Money market funds faced a net outflow of about $21.3 billion, marking the first weekly net outflow in three weeks [8] Group 3 - Gold and precious metals funds attracted a net inflow of approximately $741 million for the eighth consecutive week [9] - Emerging market equity funds faced pressure with a net outflow of $208 million, while emerging market bond funds saw a net withdrawal of $1.12 billion, ending an 11-week buying trend [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that strong retail sales and initial jobless claims data have weakened market expectations for a recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][3] - Retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 0.1%, while core retail sales rose by 0.5%, better than the expected 0.3% [2] - Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, below the market expectation of 235,000, indicating resilience in the labor market [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates may remain cautious due to inflation pressures and the recent economic data, with a potential economic growth slowdown to 1% and an unemployment rate rise to 4.5% [3] - The upcoming CPI data will be crucial; if the core CPI year-on-year rate rises to 2.9% or higher, expectations for rate cuts may be further delayed, supporting the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [3] - Conversely, if inflation pressures ease, the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts in September or December, which could boost U.S. stocks and silver prices [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis suggests that silver prices are maintaining support at 37.3, with expectations of upward movement after a recent adjustment from a high of 39 [4] - The silver price is projected to have upward potential, with a focus on the resistance level around 38.6, indicating possible formation of two peaks or a single peak at this level [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing volatility due to rumors about the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which has led to fluctuations in gold prices, with expectations of further adjustments and potential upward movement towards the $3400 mark [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On July 16, gold prices opened at $3324.52 per ounce, initially supported by buying pressure but later faced resistance, leading to a low of $3319.51 and a high of $3376.99 during the day [3][5]. - The final closing price for gold was $3347.41, reflecting a daily increase of $22.89, or 0.69%, with a trading range of $57.48 [3][5]. - The market is currently influenced by various economic indicators, including a surprising drop in the PPI, which has reduced inflationary pressures and bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts [5][6]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold prices have not broken below the 10-week moving average, indicating potential support and a possible entry point for bullish positions if prices decline further [8][10]. - The daily chart shows that gold is maintaining a triangular consolidation pattern, suggesting that after this period of volatility, there may be an upward movement, with key resistance levels at $3355 and $3366 [10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes initial jobless claims, retail sales, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, with expectations that most of these will exert downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - The market's reaction to Trump's denial of Powell's dismissal adds uncertainty, which may increase the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the recent inflation data may validate the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, indicating that the current rebound of the US dollar is unlikely to be sustained [1] Group 2 - The US dollar experienced a slight decline against the euro and yen after reaching multi-week highs, as inflation pressures intensified due to tariff policies, leading investors to slightly reduce expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - PIMCO economist Tiffany Wilding stated that the rise in inflation related to tariff-affected goods supports the Federal Reserve's cautious approach, while the continued slowdown in service-related inflation should support rate cuts in September and beyond [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming PPI data release to assess whether price pressures are genuinely beginning to rise [1] - Deutsche Bank forex analyst Michael Pfister noted that attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence by Trump are unlikely to cease, and given his demand for a 300 basis point rate cut, a 25 basis point cut is unlikely to satisfy him, suggesting that the dollar's current rebound may not last long [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the precious metals and industrial metals sectors, highlighting the performance and outlook for gold, silver, copper, and aluminum [1][2][3][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments Precious Metals - **Gold Price Outlook**: The gold price has shown a strong performance in the first half of the year, with expectations for continued strength in the second half due to ongoing U.S. fiscal pressures, including rising national debt and fiscal deficits [2][3]. - **Monetary and Financial Attributes**: The core drivers for gold's long-term performance are its monetary and financial attributes, which are expected to remain significant as U.S. debt and dollar credibility weaken [2][3]. - **Central Bank Support**: Global central banks' backing of gold reserves is anticipated to create a positive feedback loop supporting gold prices [3]. - **Silver Demand**: There is optimism for silver in the second half of the year, with a focus on its rigid supply and industrial applications, which are expected to drive price recovery [4][10]. Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum Trends**: The copper market is expected to show strong price elasticity due to low inventory levels, while aluminum has also seen a recovery post-tariff adjustments [7][10]. - **Supply Constraints**: The supply of aluminum is tightening, with production capacity growth limited, which may lead to price increases [9]. - **Electricity Investment**: Strong investment in electricity infrastructure is noted, contributing to demand resilience across various sectors, including appliances and automotive [6][9]. - **Energy Metals**: The prices of lithium and nickel products are currently low, but there is potential for a bottom reversal if supply constraints are addressed [10][11]. Additional Insights - **Tariff Impact**: The increase in tariffs is expected to contribute to inflationary pressures in the U.S., which may further support precious metals [2]. - **Global Inventory Levels**: Current global inventories are at historically low levels, which may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances in the future [7]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The call suggests focusing on companies with significant cost advantages and growth potential in the precious and industrial metals sectors [11]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Market Sentiment**: Despite short-term demand concerns, the overall supply rigidity in silver is expected to lead to a supply shortage, supporting price increases [4]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The concentration of supply in countries like Guinea may pose risks to the raw material supply chain, which should be monitored closely [8]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the precious and industrial metals sectors.

Core Viewpoint - The increase in tariffs is likely to bring additional inflationary pressure for a period of time [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Logan indicates that higher tariffs may contribute to inflation [1]

Group 1 - International silver regained momentum, trading above $38 after a previous three-week high, supported by a weaker dollar ahead of U.S. consumer inflation data [1] - The U.S. announced significant military aid to Ukraine, including the "Patriot" air defense system, which is seen as a key variable in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - Trump's military aid strategy marks a shift from Biden's direct assistance, requiring European allies to purchase U.S. weapons for Ukraine, while threatening severe sanctions against Russia if agreements are not reached within 50 days [2][3] Group 2 - Increased military aid and potential sanctions against Russia may escalate the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to heightened market risk aversion, which could support gold and silver prices in the short term [3] - If negotiations between Russia and Ukraine progress, reduced geopolitical risks may lead to a decrease in safe-haven demand, potentially causing a pullback in silver prices [4] - Technical analysis indicates that international silver prices have shown three consecutive days of gains, breaking through the $38.80-$39.30 range, although a recent drop to $38.30 has created a "high fall" pattern [5] Group 3 - Support levels for silver are identified at $38.00 and $37.65, while resistance levels are at $38.60, $39.00, and $40.00 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the postponement of reciprocal tariffs by Trump as a strategic move, highlighting the limited trade agreements with certain economies and the inability to bear the costs of comprehensive tariff increases [1][3]. Tariff Adjustments - The new tariff standards announced by Trump show significant increases for certain countries, with Mexico and Canada facing over 30% increases, Brazil's tariffs rising from 10% to 50%, and the EU's tariffs increasing from 20% to 30% [1][3]. - The average U.S. import tariff has risen by 5.6 percentage points to 28.9% since the initial version in April, with the most significant increases for Brazil, Canada, and Mexico [3][4]. Impact on Exports - The overall increase in U.S. import tariffs may shrink the total import "pie," potentially affecting China's export share, while higher tariffs from other countries could allow China to regain market share [4][10]. - Household appliances, light manufacturing, and electrical equipment are expected to benefit the most from the tariff changes, with a potential final tariff increase of only 10% for China [7][9]. Export Performance - China's export growth rate in June was recorded at 5.8%, a 1 percentage point increase from May, indicating strong export resilience [10][11]. - The increase in exports is attributed to the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, leading to a significant rebound in exports to the U.S. [10][11]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus expanded to $114.77 billion in June, continuing to grow, with future attention on the potential impacts of the second round of reciprocal tariffs [24].