华西策略李立峰团队称，岁末年初多头势力聚集，"春季躁动"行情有望抢跑。一方面，海外货币政策不确定性消退，后续国内春 节与"两会"召开时间较为接近，节前对两会的政策预期有望支撑风险偏好；另一方面，年初通常是保险、年金等绝对收益资金进 行新一轮配置的窗口期，在政策预期向好的背景下，增量资金入场意愿较强，近期国内机构资金、融资资金等已出现"抢跑"迹 象。 本周各家券商策略分析师整体依旧保持乐观。 | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 芬商/分析师 结论 | 逻辑 | | 关注板块 | | 兴证策略 张启尧 言? | 要反映的是美元再度走弱叠加年末"结汇潮 人民币"破7"后，行业如何配 | | 人民币升值影响行业配置的四个逻辑: 盈利层面,1)人民币升值降低进口成 3）人民币升值提升国内居民购买力， | | | 近期人民币加速升值引发市场关注。背后主 | | | | | | | 本,原材料进口依赖度较高的行业受 | | | | | 益;2)人民币升值驱动外币负债成本 | | | " 带动下,人民币相对其他非美货币的"补 | | 下降,持有较多美元负债的行业受益; | ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the market is currently in a consolidation phase, with opportunities to buy on dips ahead of a potential spring rally. The A-share market has shown strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.9% and the ChiNext Index gaining 3.9% [1][8] - The A-share market's average daily turnover has rebounded to nearly RMB 2 trillion, driven by significant trading in the commercial aerospace sector and A500 ETFs, while the Hong Kong market turnover has declined to around HKD 160 billion due to the Christmas holiday [3][11] - The report notes that the commercial aerospace sector has absorbed market liquidity, accounting for 20% of total A-share trading, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][11] Group 2 - The report highlights that the U.S. dollar index has declined by 0.7% to 98, with expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to a general appreciation of non-U.S. currencies, including the RMB, which has appreciated by 2.6% to 97.88 since July [2][9] - The report indicates that the one-year forward rate for the RMB has risen to 6.87, reflecting strengthened appreciation expectations, although the daily fixing remains around 7.036, suggesting a cautious approach from the PBOC regarding rapid appreciation [2][9] - The report discusses the significant rise in commodity prices, particularly in precious metals like silver and platinum, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions, indicating a shift in capital towards metals [2][10] Group 3 - The report suggests that A-shares may attempt another upward push, with Hong Kong equities potentially following suit. However, further upside in A-shares will face resistance near annual highs, and a clean breakout is likely to be challenging without a meaningful expansion in turnover [4][14] - The report recommends focusing on domestically oriented consumption and non-bank financials that are trading at low levels and offer defensive characteristics in the near term. It also suggests that a market pullback could provide an opportunity to increase exposure to technology sectors [4][14]

Group 1 - The market continues to recover, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3963 points [3] - Recent afternoon surges indicate that buying funds are waiting for short sellers to drive prices down before accumulating shares [4] - The recent appreciation of the RMB beyond 7 signifies a stronger willingness to exchange currency compared to previous years, which may support the economy [7] Group 2 - The RMB's future direction is anticipated to stabilize around 6.9, as rapid appreciation could negatively impact exports and technological innovation [8][10] - The strong willingness to exchange currency this year is mitigated by many companies having hedged their positions, limiting potential losses [10][12] - The monthly customer option buying volume in the banking sector has reached 30 billion USD, doubling from last year [11] Group 3 - Signals to boost domestic demand are becoming more pronounced, with both spot and forward exchange rates showing significant appreciation [15][16] - The current low volatility environment during the RMB's appreciation suggests that large reversals are unlikely, similar to slow bull markets in equities [25][28] - The revaluation period for Chinese assets is expected to open officially [30] Group 4 - The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing is seen as beneficial for the real estate sector, but not necessarily for housing prices [31] - The true intention behind the government's focus on "investing in people" can be understood by observing rental prices, which are leading indicators for housing stability [35][36] - The continuous decline in the REITs index indicates significant rental pressure [37] Group 5 - The A500 ETF has seen increased trading volume, with the leading A500 ETF's transaction volume reaching 53.3 billion [40] - The current market volatility has decreased, suggesting that many short positions in derivatives may convert to long positions in the future [40] - The investment landscape is shifting towards sectors like military and robotics, with insurance stocks reaching new highs and showing a 33% increase this year [40]

现在再有人在你耳边吹人民币升值是天赐良机，是买买买的神助攻，那你可得多个心眼。 背后的故事不是利好，而是一记老到发腥的"黄鼠狼给鸡拜年"。 先看这波人民币的动态，截止今年12月15日，在岸人民币兑美元已经累计升值了3.44%，12月中旬更是一脚踩过了7.05关口，刷新逾一 年新高。 不少人在朋友圈刷着"这波赚了""出国便宜"，甚至有人蠢蠢欲动，准备把手头人民币全换成美元"套利"。 听着都眼熟吧，几年前也有那么一波"美元信仰者"，结果被汇率一个过山车送回解放前，终极结算一算，不仅没赚，连本金都缩水。 资产投资不能只看眼前的价格波动，得把整个战略局看懂，而这盘棋就是美国人精心布的。 这次是国际货币基金组织（IMF）发话了，堂而皇之地建议人民币"逐步升值"，每年最好涨个5%起步，还得带着物价一同往上拉。 表面看是为健康发展献计，实则挖好一口深井，把中国制造就往里推，这招不就是1985年针对日本那一套广场协议的翻版么？ IMF的一纸"建议"，把老美的算盘暴露得一清二楚：逼人民币升值、削弱中国出口优势、制造订单回流、瓦解中国的制造核心、把咱辛 苦赚的外汇储备捏在手里再猛贬一波…… 这不就是软刀子割肉、不战而屈人之兵？ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a new investment theme for 2026 is emerging in commodity markets, real industry chains, and foreign exchange markets, driven by a scenario where investment exceeds consumption [1] - The report recommends focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [1] - It also highlights the Chinese equipment export chain with global comparative advantages, confirming a cyclical bottom, including sectors like power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is experiencing a gradual upward trend, with the cross-year market rally starting, moving beyond a single narrative focused on AI to a broader range of themes including domestic demand and new industry topics [2] - The price increase chain has become a market focus, driven by rising raw material prices and the effects of anti-involution policies, leading some companies to reduce production and jointly raise prices [3] - The ongoing global manufacturing recovery is expected to continue with investment outpacing consumption, while the relationship between AI investment and metal prices is compared to past trends in coal and new energy [4] Group 3 - The new external circulation pattern is leading to a new cycle of RMB appreciation, primarily driven by the weakening dollar and seasonal capital inflows, with expectations of a recovery in China’s export resilience [5] - The RMB's appreciation is alleviating cost pressures from rising prices of commodities and integrated circuits, benefiting sectors such as communication equipment, environmental governance, aviation, electronics, and lithium batteries [6] - Historical trends indicate that during periods of RMB appreciation, the sales gross margin of companies exposed to high external demand typically experiences a slight increase followed by a decrease, suggesting a nuanced impact on export competitiveness [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan, breaking the 7.0 mark against the US dollar, signifies a shift in trade dynamics and reflects the underlying geopolitical strategies among major economies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Context - The yuan's rise is attributed to a record trade surplus and strong export performance, leading to increased foreign exchange earnings [6]. - The appreciation is not merely a result of market supply and demand but is part of a calculated strategy in the context of global power dynamics [4][6]. Group 2: Geopolitical Dynamics - The ongoing competition among the US, Europe, and China has intensified, with the US recognizing China's advancements in high-end technology and manufacturing capabilities [10]. - The US has initiated a process of de-globalization, attempting to bring manufacturing back home through tariffs and technology restrictions, which has led to a coordinated depreciation of the yuan by Western economies [12][10]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - In response to external pressures, China has opted for a proactive strategy of allowing the yuan to appreciate, countering the intended effects of Western economic policies [14][20]. - This strategy aims to mitigate the impact of currency appreciation on export profits by encouraging price increases, thus protecting domestic businesses from a price war [16][20]. Group 4: Industry Implications - The strategy of price increases is seen as a means to strengthen leading industry players and promote technological advancements, as weaker firms are likely to be eliminated in the process [22][24]. - By allowing for moderate price increases, China aims to provide breathing room for Western manufacturers, thereby avoiding a complete collapse of their industries and fostering a more stable competitive environment [26][30]. Group 5: Market Reactions - Despite the yuan's appreciation, Chinese exports remain robust, with trade surpluses continuing to rise, indicating a persistent reliance on Chinese goods by Western economies [30][33]. - The current market dynamics have led to increased demand for commodities, with prices for metals like copper and aluminum reaching new highs, driven by Western countries' stockpiling in response to supply chain vulnerabilities [36][40]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The ongoing developments in the yuan's valuation and China's strategic positioning in global trade are expected to continue shaping the landscape of international finance and economic relations [42][44]. - The narrative of China's manufacturing resilience and strategic foresight is likely to play a significant role in its future economic trajectory and global standing [44].

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a continuous rise, indicating the gradual initiation of a year-end rally, with global risk assets recovering amid easing liquidity tightening expectations [3][12] - The market is shifting focus from a single narrative around AI to a broader range of themes, including domestic demand, price increase chains, and new industrial themes like commercial aerospace [3][12] - The current market rally is characterized by industry rotation and the emergence of new investment themes for 2026, driven by the interplay between AI investment and global manufacturing recovery [3][12] Group 2 - Recent price increases across various industries have become a focal point, with raw material price hikes being a primary driver, leading to passive price increases in many sectors [4][17] - The effects of anti-involution policies are becoming evident, as some companies opt for voluntary production cuts and joint price increases to maintain competitive order amid rising upstream costs and downstream price pressures [4][17] - The sustainability of price increases varies by sector, with strong demand in some areas like lithium battery and wafer manufacturing, while sectors with weaker demand, such as titanium dioxide, may face challenges in sustaining price hikes [4][24] Group 3 - A new cycle of RMB appreciation is emerging, primarily driven by the weakening dollar and seasonal capital inflows, with medium-term support from improved China-U.S. relations and resilient export performance [5][33] - Historical trends indicate that during RMB appreciation periods, companies with high overseas exposure often experience a temporary increase in sales margins, followed by a decline, suggesting a complex relationship between currency strength and export competitiveness [5][34] - The current RMB appreciation is expected to alleviate cost pressures from rising prices of commodities and integrated circuits, benefiting sectors such as communication equipment, environmental governance, and lithium batteries [5][40] Group 4 - The new investment themes for 2026 are beginning to manifest across commodity markets, real industry chains, and foreign exchange markets, with a focus on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery [6][12] - Recommended sectors include industrial resource products like copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as equipment export chains with global comparative advantages, and consumer sectors benefiting from inbound recovery and rising household income [6][12]

Group 1 - The market is no longer focused on a single narrative, with new investment themes emerging as the A-share market experiences a gradual upward trend, indicating a cross-year market rally [2][12][34] - The recent price increase across various industry chains is driven primarily by rising raw material costs, with companies adopting strategies such as voluntary production cuts and joint price increases to maintain competitive order [3][14][16] - The new external circulation pattern is leading to a new cycle of RMB appreciation, driven by factors such as the weakening dollar and seasonal capital inflows, with historical trends suggesting limited impact on export competitiveness [4][21][23][25] Group 2 - A new investment theme for 2026 is emerging, characterized by increased physical consumption across industry chains and a prolonged trading range for bulk commodities, highlighting China's manufacturing advantages [6][29][37] - Recommended sectors include industrial resource products that resonate with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as Chinese equipment export chains and domestic manufacturing sectors poised for recovery [6][29][37] - The consumer recovery channel is expected to benefit from inbound tourism and rising household income, with sectors such as aviation, hotels, and food and beverage showing potential [6][29][37]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the Shanghai Composite Index, which has achieved an "eight consecutive days" rise, driven by strong domestic capital amid the absence of northbound funds due to the Christmas holiday. The market has shown good profitability, with trading volumes exceeding 1.9 trillion yuan on December 25 and 26. The backdrop of AI narratives, domestic demand stimulation, and the depreciation of the US dollar are highlighted as key factors influencing the market dynamics [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance and Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved an "eight consecutive days" rise, supported by strong domestic capital [1][7]. - Trading volumes exceeded 1.9 trillion yuan on December 25 and 26, indicating a favorable market profitability effect [1][7]. - The offshore RMB has strengthened past the 7.0 mark against the US dollar, which is seen as a critical variable for future market trends [1][7]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Beneficiary sectors are categorized into three tiers: 1. Cost and debt improvement types, which directly benefit from RMB appreciation and have high elasticity [1][7]. 2. Fund flow-driven types, which are core assets benefiting from increased attractiveness of RMB assets [1][7]. 3. Asset revaluation types, which present valuation recovery opportunities due to the intrinsic value enhancement of RMB-denominated assets [1][7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - Since 2017, the RMB has experienced three phases of rapid appreciation, each with different underlying logic: 1. The 2017 appreciation was linked to the opening of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, leading to core asset revaluation due to foreign capital inflow [2][8]. 2. The 2020-2021 phase was driven by a significant recovery in export data and strong performance in the new energy sector, showcasing the resilience of Chinese manufacturing [2][8]. 3. The late 2022 to early 2023 phase was characterized by a rebound in manufacturing PMI amid economic pressure, with market speculation on economic recovery [2][8]. Group 4: Current Differences and Strategic Opportunities - The current appreciation is primarily driven by domestic capital rather than foreign investment, favoring high-elasticity sectors rather than stable consumer and financial sectors [3][9]. - The core driving force is the technological revolution and liquidity abundance, with a higher market risk appetite focusing on sectors like commercial aerospace, AI infrastructure, and humanoid robotics [3][9]. Group 5: Recommended Strategies - The recommended trading strategy for the current RMB appreciation phase includes a mid-term focus on "pan-technology" and a short-term defensive approach, emphasizing sectors like commercial aerospace, robotics, and AI applications [4][10]. - It is suggested to maintain a lower position in defensive stocks that directly benefit from RMB appreciation, such as paper manufacturing and airport operations, especially during the annual report forecast period [4][10].

Core Insights - In December, 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs, primarily in the communication, non-ferrous metals, and military (aerospace) sectors, indicating strong market consensus on these areas [2][11] - Established sectors like communication and non-ferrous metals are seen as core investment themes, while emerging sectors such as commercial aerospace are gaining traction amid market volatility [1][3] Group 1: Performance of ETFs - The communication ETFs saw an average increase of 10% since October, with an annual average increase of 91.5% [2][12] - Non-ferrous metal ETFs experienced an average increase of 20.1% since October, with an annual average increase of 95.2% [2][12] - Military and aerospace ETFs had an average increase of 18.7% since October, with satellite ETFs rising by an average of 34.5% [2][12] Group 2: Emerging Investment Themes - Commercial aerospace is viewed as an active investment choice during market fluctuations, similar to previous low-altitude themes, driven by narratives around US-China space infrastructure competition [3][4] - The commercial aerospace sector, while promising, does not match the scale of humanoid robotics or low-altitude economies, indicating a more modest growth potential [4][14] Group 3: Under-the-Radar Sectors - Sectors like chemicals and engineering machinery are quietly rising and have reached new annual highs, reflecting China's manufacturing competitiveness and pricing power [5][15] - These sectors are characterized by low media attention and fragmented industry discussions, making them susceptible to being overlooked despite their potential for profit margin improvement [5][15] Group 4: Anti-Inflation Trends - Sectors related to anti-inflation, such as new energy and steel, are showing signs of recovery, with market sensitivity to supply dynamics increasing [6][16] - Recent supply chain disruptions in the new energy sector have led to positive stock price reactions, indicating market expectations for tangible supply reductions [6][16] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The current market strategy emphasizes structural opportunities in a volatile market, focusing on sectors with low heat and concentration but increasing attention and potential for long-term ROE improvement, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, and new energy [7][17] - The strategy also includes monitoring the trend of RMB appreciation, with sectors like brokerage and insurance being positioned as both offensive and defensive choices [7][17]