国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2026年3月1日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 本周LPG观点：短期地缘扰动偏强 供应 伴随炼厂负荷抬升，当前国内民用气商品量逐渐修复至历史同期中性水平；受烷基化装置停工影响，醚后碳四商品量达到历史高位水平，厂家 库存压力高。 需求 民用燃烧方面，气温降低，燃烧需求支撑偏强。C3方面，本周，节中短时波动装置辽宁金发（60）、利华益（60）重启恢复，中景2#（100） 周尾重启；中景3#（100）停车检修，PDH开工率环比下滑1.6%至63.2%。青岛金能2#（90）、天津渤化（60）、东莞巨正源2#（60）、宁波金 发1#（60）等 ...

Investment Ratings - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper, aluminum, and precious metals, suggesting a high level of market activity and potential for growth in these sectors [12][32][59]. Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing a recovery with LME copper prices increasing by 1.99% to $13,259.0 per ton, and domestic copper prices rising by 3.53% to 103,900 CNY per ton, driven by a gradual recovery in production and consumption [13][14]. - Aluminum prices have also seen an upward trend, with LME aluminum prices up by 1.16% to $3,141.5 per ton, supported by a recovery in downstream processing activities [14]. - The gold market remains strong, with COMEX gold prices increasing by 0.92% to $5,296.4 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and increased demand for safe-haven assets [15]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 1.99% to $13,259.0 per ton, while domestic prices rose by 3.53% to 103,900 CNY per ton [13]. - Copper inventory in major regions increased by 4.56% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 15,560 tons [13]. - The operating rate of copper cable enterprises is expected to rise significantly in the coming weeks as production resumes [13]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.16% to $3,141.5 per ton, and domestic prices increased by 2.76% to 23,800 CNY per ton [14]. - Domestic aluminum rod inventory increased by 1.95 million tons, while the operating rate of aluminum processing industries improved to 57% [14]. - The cost of prebaked anodes is showing positive trends, supporting the overall aluminum production costs [14]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold price increased by 0.92% to $5,296.4 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 14.86 tons to 1,101.33 tons [15]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Pakistan and Iran, are contributing to the volatility and strength in the gold market [15]. - The market is witnessing a strong upward trend in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainties [15]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 4.80%, indicating a bullish outlook for the rare earth sector [33]. - The ongoing supply-side reforms and expectations of more relaxed export policies are expected to enhance demand in the rare earth market [33]. - Companies such as China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and others are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their strong market positions [33]. Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate increased by 18.35% to 165,000 CNY per ton, driven by supply constraints and increased demand [60]. - The total lithium production for the week rose to 21,800 tons, indicating a slight recovery in output [60]. - The market is reacting to policy changes in Zimbabwe that have halted lithium exports, further tightening global supply [60].

南华原油热点 ——伊朗战火点燃油市！油价冲 100 美元是预警还是虚惊？ 凌川惠（投资咨询资格证号：Z0019531） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年03月01日 一、消息及矛盾梳理 1）2025 年 12 月：冲突升温，核活动提速 25年12月初，伊朗代理人（也门胡塞、黎巴嫩真主党、伊拉克民兵）持续袭击美军基地与以色列目标，美以 空袭伊朗海外军事据点，代理人战争全面升级。 25年12月中旬，伊朗国内爆发大规模抗议，通胀失控、经济濒临崩溃，与此同时伊朗重启并加固纳坦兹、帕 尔钦等核设施，60% 丰度铀浓缩活动提速。 25年12月底，美军开始向中东增派兵力，"福特" 号航母战斗群进入地中海，为后续部署铺垫。 2）2026 年 1 月：军事部署完成，核谈判开启 26年1月上旬，美军 "福特" 号 +"林肯" 号双航母战斗群进驻中东，F-22/F-35 隐身战机、B-2 轰炸机、加油机 等前沿部署完毕，形成海空立体打击体系。 26年1月中旬，在阿曼斡旋下，美伊开启首轮间接核谈判（ ...

本周行情综述 铜：本周 LME 铜价+1.99%到 13259.0 美元/吨，沪铜+3.53%到 10.39 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，进口铜精矿加工费周 度指数升至-50.43 美元/吨；截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存环比周二增加 4.56%，总库存同比去年同期增加 15.56 万吨。冶炼端，节后国内废产阳极板企业陆续复工但产量尚未恢复，本周 SMM 废产阳极板企业开工率为 7.45%，预计 下周随企业陆续正常生产，开工率恢复至 54.09%。消费端，据 SMM，铜线缆企业开工率 27.72%，环比增加 12.52 个百 分点。节后正月初八起，多数线缆企业已陆续复工，但受终端复苏滞后影响，尚未完全进入满产状态，生产以执行节 前在手订单为主。元宵节后终端行业将逐步复工，订单释放节奏有望加快，预期下周铜线缆开工率环比增加 30.64 个 百分点至 58.36%，同比去年复工第二周增加 1.25 个百分点；本周漆包线行业已全面复工，但终端消费复苏偏缓，企 业普遍反馈需求恢复至正常水平需待元宵节后，符合往年节奏。 铝：本周 LME 铝价+1.16%到 3141.5 美元/吨，沪铝+2.76%到 2.38 万元/ ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 ◆ 假期间截至20日伦敦金涨幅3.27%，伦敦银涨幅11.76%。金银比从假期前的63.5回落至58.6，10年期TIPS回升至1.72%，10年期名义利率回落 至3.97%（2年期3.38%），美元指数录得97.64。 ◆ 地缘政治是本周贵金属交易的核心。周末美伊以冲突爆发，据伊朗媒体1日报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队就伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊殉职发表声明， 称将"严惩凶手"。近期黄金走势高度依赖于地缘政治格局，其余因素影响较为钝化，而周末暗盘黄金一度涨至前高，但随着美以"速战速决" 且伊朗反抗力度不及预期，黄金回吐涨幅，周末来看涨幅不到1%。后续地缘政治关键在于两点：一是伊朗新政权是革命党扶持新人选还是由美国 的扶持，这必然导致一段时间的内斗，以及伊朗对美以的打击报复力度。二是以霍尔木兹海峡为核心的油气运输要地是否会持续关闭，直接影响 到通胀表现。 ◆ 我们判断下周贵金属或将高开，如果地缘政治格局没有进一步发酵，可能走出高开低走的格局，但是我们仍然认为黄金中枢将上移，地缘风险溢 价或有一定的持续性。 ◆ 白银方面，本周库存继续去 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The situation in Iran has intensified, and the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has escalated. The impact on commodities and financial markets is significant, with energy - related commodities expected to be affected, and the financial market may face short - term pressure. A - share market impact is relatively small [5][9][10] Group 3: Summary of Important Time Lines - 2025 Jan 20: Trump planned to strengthen sanctions on Iran on his first day in office [2] - 2025 Apr 12: Before the US - Iran nuclear negotiation in Oman, the US deployed two aircraft carriers in the Middle East [2] - 2025 Jun 15: Israel launched the "Lion's Strength" operation, and the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated [2] - 2025 Jun 24: Trump announced a cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran [3] - 2025 Dec 28: Iranian merchants in Tehran's Grand Bazaar protested due to currency collapse, starting large - scale unrest [3] - 2026 Feb 6: The first round of US - Iran negotiations was held in Muscat, Oman [3] - 2026 Feb 7: The US announced new sanctions on Iranian oil trading entities [3] - 2026 Feb 17: The second round of US - Iran negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, reached a general consensus on "guiding principles" with remaining differences [5] - 2026 Feb 26: The third round of US - Iran negotiations in Geneva failed to reach an agreement [5] - 2026 Feb 28: The US and Israel launched an air strike on Tehran [5] Group 4: Commodity Impact of Past Iranian Events Supply - side Impact - Iran's crude oil production capacity is 3.3 million barrels per day, accounting for 3.24% of the global total and 10% of China's demand. LPG annual output is 11.58 million tons, accounting for less than 1.7% globally and over 10% of China's demand. Iran is the world's second - largest methanol producer, with an annual output of 17 million tons, accounting for nearly 10% globally and about 60% of China's imports [6] Past Event Impact - On Jan 8, 2020 (Soleimani beheading operation), the market impact lasted 4 trading days. Fuel oil had the largest extreme increase of over 16%, and crude oil rose nearly 9% [6][7] - On Jun 13, 2025 ("Lion's Strength" operation), the market impact lasted 7 trading days. Crude oil and fuel oil rose over 6% on the day, and LPG rose over 5% [7] Safe - haven and Stock Market Impact - Gold and silver showed relatively restrained performance in the two events in 2020 and 2025, with overall increases mostly between 1% - 2%. The A - share market fell 1.22% on Jan 8, 2020, and 0.75% on Jun 13, 2025 [7][8] Group 5: Impact of Current Event - Iran launched a missile retaliation after the US - Israel air strike, blocked the Strait of Hormuz, and involved surrounding countries in the war. Energy - related commodities are expected to be affected in the order of crude oil > fuel oil > low - sulfur fuel oil > LPG > methanol > asphalt > plastic > polyester > propylene > PP. Silver's volatility is greater than gold, and gold has better stability. The impact on the European line may be greater and last longer than in 2025. The financial market may face short - term pressure, while the A - share market's impact is relatively small [9][10]

美伊冲突点评 美伊冲突对化工影响几何？ glmszqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] 1． 化工"双碳"：政策擎双碳，化工领方向- 2026/01/30 2． 2025Q4 化工行业基金持仓分析：化工持 仓触底反弹，龙头配置价值凸显- 2026/01/27 3． 商业航天：化工赋能星海征途- 2026/01/13 4． 大化工行业 2026 年度投资策略：开局就 是破局，迎化工新五年-2025/12/26 5． 化工行业周报（20250908-20250914）： 本周液氯、环氧氯丙烷、硫磺、丙烯酸丁 酯等产品涨幅居前-2025/09/16 分析师承诺 | 分析师 | 许隽逸 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590524060003 | | | 邮箱： | xujy@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 张玮航 | | 执业证书： S0590524090003 | | | 邮箱： | whzhang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 陈律楼 | | 执业证书： S0590524080002 | | | 邮箱： ...

Group 1: Export Control Measures - China has included 40 Japanese entities in its export control list, with 20 entities directly involved in enhancing Japan's military capabilities[19] - The export control measures are a response to Japan's increased defense spending and military exports, which have reached record levels[2] - The measures are not temporary but were planned since January 2026, with a formal announcement made on January 6, 2026, prohibiting dual-use items to military users in Japan[20] Group 2: Impact on Japanese Entities - The impact on domestic Japanese companies is overall limited, as the defense and military industries of China and Japan are significantly decoupled[28] - The entities on the control list primarily focus on defense sectors, while those on the observation list include aerospace and electronics, indicating a broader scope[21] - Japanese defense stocks, particularly Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, experienced a decline, with shares dropping by 3.6% following the announcement[29] Group 3: Political Context - The recent electoral victory of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has facilitated a more aggressive defense policy, with the ruling party holding over two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives[27] - Kishida's government is expected to push for constitutional amendments to enhance military capabilities, reflecting a shift away from post-war pacifism[31] - The geopolitical tension in the region may lead to further restrictive measures from China in sectors like rare earths and seafood, as part of a systematic countermeasure strategy[3]

证 券 研 究 报 告 其他小金属：节后钨市偏强节奏运行，现货流通依旧紧张。节后钨产 业链快速回归偏强节奏，矿山复工偏慢，现货流通依旧紧张，持货商报价 坚挺。下游企业陆续复产，刚需补库带动交投回暖，但高价下多以小单谨 慎跟进。光伏钨丝、高端制造等领域需求稳定，成本与低库存形成双重支 撑，全链心态向好，短期行情易涨难跌，后续走势关注节后复工及供需释 放情况。个股：锑建议关注湖南黄金、华锡有色、华钰矿业；钼关注金钼 股份、中金黄金、洛阳钼业；钨关注佳鑫国际资源、中钨高新、厦门钨业、 章源钨业，翔鹭钨业；稀土关注中国稀土、中稀有色、北方稀土、金力永 磁、厦门钨业。 一周市场回顾：本周涨幅前十：菲利华（40.02%）、云南锗业（37.77%）、 章源钨业（32.81%）、沃尔德（32.71%）、锌业股份（26.96%）、华锡 有色（26.73%）、中钨高新（26.35%）、永兴材料（25.51%）、驰宏锌 锗（24.35%）、抚顺特钢（24.25%）。 风险提示 新能源金属：电动车及储能需求不及预期；基本金属：中国消费 修复不及预期；贵金属：美联储降息不及预期。 强于大市（维持评级） 有色金属 2026 年 03 月 ...

市场快讯---中东战火再起 金银如何反应 2026年3月1日 2月28日，美以联合空袭伊朗，中东再次被战争阴云笼罩。在此次冲突爆发之前，美国军队持续在中东集结， 美伊谈判一波三折，双方目标很难妥协，市场对战争爆发已有预期。2月27日多国发布撤离中东提醒，市场避险 情绪提升，带动27日黄金上涨、白银大涨。2025年6月12日-6月24日，伊朗以色列冲突持续十二天，黄金价格在 是3300-3400点之间，冲突开始的前两天黄金上涨，之后却小幅回落，至冲突结束时与爆发前基本持平；冲突期 间白银在36美元/盎司附近横盘波动（下图方框部分）。本次黄金先涨后跌也不无可能。我们预期周一开盘黄金 和白银将高开，作为重要避险工具的黄金在地缘政治风险突然放大的时点直接反映是上涨。最新消息伊朗最高 领袖哈梅内伊遇袭身亡，伊朗国内政局如何变化将对战争的持续产生重要影响，是否短期内可以达成美方的预 期，促成亲美派领导人上台，还是引发伊朗更加激烈的反击。我们关注事态的持续发展，包括此次冲突的烈度 和可能持续的时间。短线市场剧烈波动，提请投资者注意控制仓位，防控风险。 数据来源：Wind，格林大华期货 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资 ...