交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年1月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为44.02%，环比增加.080个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为30.22%，环比增加.439个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为35.4%，环比减少 0.20个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为66.43%，环比持平，高于历史平均水平；下 游糊树脂开工率为81.53%，环比增加0.780个百分点，高于历史平均水平；船运费用看涨；国内PVC 出口价格价格不占优势；当前需求或持续低迷。 1、基本面: 偏空。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-633.67元/吨，亏损环比减少11.00%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯法利润 为-192.09元/吨，亏损环比减少31 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating Core View of the Report - The glass market is affected by short - term factors such as mid - stream inventory transfer, coal speculation, and sporadic production line shutdowns, but the fundamental pattern remains unchanged. The inventory problem will still be prominent before and after the Spring Festival. The glass price is expected to run weakly, and investors are advised to look for opportunities to short at high prices [3] Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - **Main Logic**: Last week, the glass futures rebounded strongly. The market focused on production line shutdowns around New Year's Day, a 1.8 - million - weight - box reduction in national inventory, and coal - related capital speculation. Supply decreased with two production lines cold - repaired, and the daily melting volume dropped below 150,000 tons. There was an arbitrage space for spot - futures traders. Demand saw an increase in speculative demand, and the floating glass factory inventory was transferred to the mid - stream. The coal speculation in the soda ash market was overbought, and manufacturers actively hedged. After the market sentiment fades, the price will run weakly. Technically, the short - side power is dominant and strengthening [3] - **Operation Strategy**: Short at high prices [3][4] 02 and 03 Market Review - **Spot Price**: As of January 9, the 5mm float glass market price was 1,020 yuan/ton (+20) in North China, 1,060 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,180 yuan/ton (+10) in East China [11] - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the glass 05 contract closed at 1,144 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan for the week [11] - **Price Difference**: As of January 9, the soda ash - glass price difference was 84 yuan/ton (-38). Last Friday, the glass 05 contract basis was - 84 yuan/ton (-17), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 94 yuan/ton (+10) [12][15] 04 Profit - **Natural Gas Process**: Cost was 1,569 yuan/ton (+2), and gross profit was - 389 yuan/ton (+8) - **Coal - Gas Process**: Cost was 1,170 yuan/ton (+9), and gross profit was - 150 yuan/ton (+11) - **Petroleum Coke Process**: Cost was 1,110 yuan/ton (+2), and gross profit was - 50 yuan/ton (-2) - **Fuel Price**: On January 9, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 4.31 yuan/m³, the CIF price of 3% sulfur shot coke from the US was 185 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 595 yuan/ton [19] 05 Supply - Last Friday, the glass daily melting volume was 149,553.5 tons/day (-1,520). There were 214 production lines in operation, and two production lines were cold - repaired last week [21] 06 Inventory - As of January 9, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 55.518 million weight boxes (-1.348 million). Inventory decreased in all regions, with significant drops in North China, South China, and Shahe [24][25] 07 Deep - processing - On January 18, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 145% (+25%). On January 9, the LOW - E glass开工率 was 73.8% (+29.7%). In mid - December, the order days of glass deep - processing decreased to 8.6 days (-1.1) [29] 08 and 09 Demand - **Automobile**: In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles (month - on - month increase of 173,000 and year - on - year increase of 95,000), and sales were 3.429 million vehicles (month - on - month increase of 107,000 and year - on - year increase of 113,000). The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.321 million, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [38] - **Real Estate**: In November, real estate completion area was 45.9293 million m² (year - on - year decrease of 25%), new construction area was 43.9531 million m² (-28%), construction area was 31.2717 million m² (-42%), and commercial housing sales area was 67.1974 million m² (-18%). From December 28 to January 4, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.74 million square meters (month - on - month decrease of 20% and year - on - year decrease of 9%). In November, real estate development investment was 502.82 billion yuan (year - on - year decrease of 31%) [43] 10 Soda Ash Price - **Spot Price**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash remained unchanged in North, East, and Central China, and was 1,425 yuan/ton in South China. The weekly changes in the ex - factory prices of some soda ash manufacturers were negative [44][46] - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,228 yuan/ton (+19). The soda ash Central China 05 basis was 22 yuan/ton (-69) [48][49] 11 Cost - end Soda Ash - Profit - As of last Friday, the soda ash profit was - 40 yuan/ton (-5). The cost of the ammonia - soda process was 1,313 yuan/ton (+1), with a gross profit of - 58 yuan/ton (+38); the cost of the co - production process was 1,727 yuan/ton (-11), with a gross profit of - 40 yuan/ton (-5) [50][52] 12 Cost - end Soda Ash - Inventory Transfer - **Output**: Last week, domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons (month - on - month increase of 56,500), including 404,500 tons of heavy soda ash (month - on - month increase of 33,500) and 349,100 tons of light soda ash (month - on - month increase of 23,000) - **Warehouse Receipts**: At the end of last week, the number of soda ash warehouse receipts on the exchange was 4,920 (+24) - **Inventory**: As of January 9, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5727 million tons (month - on - month increase of 164,400), including 736,200 tons of heavy soda ash (month - on - month increase of 60,100) and 836,500 tons of light soda ash (month - on - month increase of 104,300) [64] 13 Cost - end Soda Ash - Apparent Demand - **Apparent Consumption**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 344,400 tons (week - on - week decrease of 53,500), and for light soda ash was 244,800 tons (week - on - week decrease of 84,600) - **Production - sales Rate**: Last week, the soda ash production - sales rate was 78.18% (month - on - month decrease of 26.15%) - **Glass Factory Inventory**: In November, the soda ash inventory days of sample float glass factories were 24.1 days [67][68]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：国内豆粕市场呈现近强远弱、多空交织的震荡偏强格局。节后饲料厂与贸易商补库需求释放， 带动成交放量，豆粕库存去化，为价格提供支撑。成本端，美豆价格反弹及巴西升贴水坚挺，叠加汇率因 素，进口成本支撑增强。近月合约受供给担忧及备货需求推动更为强势，油厂及贸易商挺价意愿明显。整 体看，豆粕市场受库存去化、成本支撑及补货需求推动震荡偏强，但受制于远期供应宽松预期，上行空间 受限。短期在美农报告前，市场资金表现或谨慎，日内震荡偏弱运行为主。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年1月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，1月货主流在05-55有成交，个别略高在05-50，略低在05-58，价格商谈区间在4990~5070。2月中在05贴水 51~53有成交，2下在05贴水40~43。今日主流现货基差在05-55。中性 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 6、预期：近期PTA自身装置变动不多，供需格局暂时维持，下半周下游聚酯减产消息集中发酵，贸易商持货意愿减弱，现货基 差快速走弱，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，现货基差偏弱运行。关注油价波动及下游装置变动。 2、基差：现货5038，05合约基差-70，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.6天 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the expected US refined copper tariff and investment fund inflows. The future performance of copper prices will depend on terminal demand, US restocking, and China's demand recovery. It is expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and deplete inventory quickly after the festival [1] - For aluminum, expected trading dominates the changes in futures and spot prices, with amplified price fluctuations. The actual domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously estimated, but strong expectations can support the current high prices [1][2] - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary reduction in supply at the end of the year. The price may not decline significantly. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities for internal - external trading, and positive arbitrage opportunities for monthly spreads [5] - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a continuation of the game between short - term policies and fundamentals [7] - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak, and recent price movements are mainly driven by news of Indonesian quotas, following nickel prices in the short term [11] - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate. There are risks associated with low warehouse receipts, and attention should be paid to them [12] - Tin prices are expected to rise in the short term, with strong support from fundamentals. In the long term, demand determines the upside potential [13] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long term [16] - Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential disturbances in the resource end, increased processing fees, and macro - sentiment [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 0, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 1105, the SHFE inventory increased by 68840, and the LME inventory decreased by 2100 [1] - **Market Outlook**: The increase in copper prices is due to the expected US tariff and investment inflows. Future performance depends on demand and restocking [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 30, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 30, and the domestic aluminum oxide price decreased by 9. The SHFE social inventory increased by 15320 [1] - **Market Outlook**: Expected trading dominates price changes, with domestic apparent demand weaker than expected but high - price support from strong expectations [1][2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 140, and the SHFE inventory increased by 889 [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is tight in the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Domestic smelters are competing for zinc ore inventory. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and generally average overseas [5] - **Strategy**: Wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage for internal - external trading, and positive arbitrage for monthly spreads [5] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 9400, and the LME inventory increased by 8490 [6] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between policies and fundamentals [7] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the 304 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 100, and the 304 hot - rolled coil price decreased by 125 [11] - **Market Outlook**: Fundamentals are weak, and prices are mainly driven by news of Indonesian quotas, following nickel prices in the short term [11] Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the spot premium decreased by 10, the SHFE inventory increased by 3016, and the LME inventory decreased by 3725 [12] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to weaken. There is a short - term supply - demand mismatch, but it is gradually being alleviated [12] - **Market Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12] Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the spot import return decreased by 16694.67, and the LME inventory increased by 10 [12] - **Market Outlook**: Prices are expected to rise in the short term, with strong fundamental support. In the long term, demand determines the upside potential [13] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 180, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 96 [16] - **Market Outlook**: Prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long term [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1500, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 410 [19] - **Market Outlook**: Prices have risen recently, driven by resource - end disturbances, increased processing fees, and macro - sentiment [19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for tin is "Oscillating Strongly" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trend strength of tin is 1, with the range of trend strength values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The classification of strength levels is as follows: weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where -2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin futures was 352,540 with a daily increase of 0.83%, and the night - session closing price was 359,980 with a night - session increase of 3.15%; the closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 45,700 with a daily increase of 4.64% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Tin futures was 253,086, a decrease of 147,359 from the previous day, and the open interest was 40,737, an increase of 1,939; the trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 588, a decrease of 477, and the open interest was 23,214, an increase of 335 [2] - **Inventory Data**: The futures inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,429, a decrease of 359; the futures inventory of LME Tin was 5,415, an increase of 10, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 349,750, a decrease of 5,300 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 350,900, a decrease of 2,000; the LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 30, an increase of 9; the spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 157,480, an increase of 3,620; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 1,260, an increase of 7,410 [2] - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 337,750, a decrease of 5,300; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 341,750, a decrease of 5,300; the price of 63A solder bar was 233,250, a decrease of 3,500; the price of 60A solder bar was 223,250, a decrease of 3,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - Trump said there will be no more oil or funds flowing into Cuba - British officials have not ruled out the possibility of deploying troops in Greenland - The National Commercial Work Conference stated to deeply implement the special action to boost consumption - Trump was reported to have received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran [4]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 12 日 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.550 | 5.504 | +46 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5, 548 | 5.480 | +68 | | | | 成交量(手) | 349.961 | 422, 430 | -72, 469 | | 期货市场 | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 215. 480 | 229.326 | -13.846 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 136, 489 | 135.506 | +983 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -26, 933 | -38, 533 | +11.600 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | 50 | 46 | +4 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -800 | -754 | -46 | | | 月差 | SP03-SP05 | -34 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum ETF holdings continue to flow out, with prices in a range - bound oscillation; palladium prices rise and then fall, and attention should be paid to the price transmission related to tariffs [1] - Platinum trend strength is 0, and palladium trend strength is 0, both indicating a neutral trend [3] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Platinum prices**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 599.80, up 4.31%; the price of gold - exchange platinum was 592.82, up 2.26%; the New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 2277.80, down 0.21%; the London spot platinum (previous day) was 2269.19, down 0.08% [1] - **Palladium prices**: The closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 499.05, up 8.32%; the price of RMB spot palladium was 427.00, down 0.47%; the New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1874.00, up 2.21%; the London spot palladium (previous day) was 1818.27, up 1.13% [1] - **Trading volume and positions**: For Guangdong platinum, the trading volume was 55,015 kg, an increase of 1,290 kg compared with the previous day, and the position was 39,590 kg, a decrease of 579 kg; for NYMEX platinum, the trading volume was 36,836 kg, a decrease of 10,684 kg, and the position was 104,626 kg, a decrease of 930 kg; for Guangdong palladium, the trading volume was 40,413 kg, an increase of 4,689 kg, and the position was 15,024 kg, a decrease of 142 kg; for NYMEX palladium, the trading volume was 24,824 kg, an increase of 8,662 kg, and the position was 56,773 kg, an increase of 308 kg [1] - **ETF holdings**: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3,284,543, a decrease of 14,775; palladium ETF holdings (ounces) were 1,179,645, an increase of 3,700 [1] - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 624,755, a decrease of 260; NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 211,306, with no change [1] - **Price spreads**: For platinum, the PT9995 to PT2606 price spread was - 6.98, a decrease of 11.71 compared with the previous day; the Guangdong platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 2.40, an increase of 6.90; the cost of buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 for inter - period arbitrage was 7.38, an increase of 0.29; the spread between the Guangdong platinum main contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was 24.33, an increase of 29.59. For palladium, the RMB spot palladium price to PD2606 spread was - 72.05, a decrease of 40.35; the Guangdong palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was - 0.40, an increase of 7.40; the cost of buying Guangdong palladium 2606 and selling 2610 for inter - period arbitrage was 6.18, an increase of 0.45; the spread between the Guangdong palladium main contract and London palladium (considering VAT) was 38, an increase of 34.22 [1] - **Exchange rates**: The US dollar index was 99.14, up 0.28%; the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) exchange rate was 6.98, up 0.02%; the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) exchange rate was 6.98, up 0.02%; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) exchange rate was 6.90, down 0.20% [1] Macro and Industry News - Thailand's southern Narathiwat province has imposed a curfew [4] - The Israeli army is reported to plan a new round of strikes on the Gaza Strip [4] - British officials do not rule out the possibility of deploying troops in Greenland [4] - The Iranian president said the government recognizes peaceful protests and is willing to meet with protest groups [4] - Danish parliamentary leaders said it would be "stupid" if there was a war over Greenland [4] - US media reported that Trump was briefed on the plan to strike Iran but has not made a final decision, and the government is considering multiple options to interfere in Iran [4] - In 2025, the inter - provincial trading electricity volume in the operating area of the State Grid of China reached a record high [4] - Ukraine has been frequently attacked by air raids, and the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine has reminded Chinese citizens in Ukraine to pay attention to safety [4] - China has applied for 200,000 new satellites, and experts interpret that the application has risen to the national strategic level [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, attention should be paid to the situation of negative impacts from the MPOB report being realized [1] - For soybean oil, the momentum of US soybeans is limited, and the unilateral movement will be mainly within a range [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,682 yuan/ton (up 0.81% during the day, down 0.25% at night), soybean oil主力 at 7,994 yuan/ton (up 0.63% during the day, down 0.38% at night), and rapeseed oil主力 at 9,042 yuan/ton (up 0.96% during the day, down 0.71% at night). The Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,038 ringgit/ton (down 0.12%), and the CBOT soybean oil主力 at 49.66 cents/pound (up 0.42%) [1] - **Trading and Positions**: Palm oil主力 had 366,106 lots traded yesterday (a decrease of 264,124 lots), with a position of 400,553 lots (an increase of 6,659 lots); soybean oil主力 had 203,820 lots traded (a decrease of 54,998 lots), with a position of 681,661 lots (an increase of 16,768 lots); rapeseed oil主力 had 199,123 lots traded (a decrease of 110,870 lots), with a position of 245,121 lots (a decrease of 3,461 lots) [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan/ton (a price change of 60 yuan), the first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,530 yuan/ton (a price change of 30 yuan), the fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,950 yuan/ton (a price change of 100 yuan), and the FOB offshore price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,025 US dollars/ton (a price change of 20 US dollars) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 2 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 536 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 908 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 360 yuan/ton (compared to 344 yuan/ton the day before), the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 688 yuan/ton (compared to - 668 yuan/ton the day before), the palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 112 yuan/ton (unchanged), the soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 156 yuan/ton (compared to 130 yuan/ton the day before), and the rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was 21 yuan/ton (compared to 13 yuan/ton the day before) [1] **Macro and Industry News** - On January 10, 2026, a 7.1 - magnitude earthquake occurred in the sea near North Sulawesi Province, Indonesia [2] - Analysts on average expect the US soybean production in the 2025/26 season to be 4.229 billion bushels, with an estimated range between 4.176 - 4.3 billion bushels, compared to the USDA's previous estimate of 4.253 billion bushels in November [3][4] - The State Council executive meeting pointed out the need to strengthen the coordination and linkage between fiscal and financial policies, and optimize loan discount policies for service - sector businesses and individual consumer loans [4] - In the second week of 2026 (from January 3 to January 9), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.7658 million tons, an increase of 12,500 tons compared to the previous week, and 61,100 tons lower than the estimated crushing volume. The actual operating rate was 48.58% [4] **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0 [5]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on January 12, 2026, covering multiple black - series commodities [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Report's Core View - For iron ore, the valuation is high, so be cautious about chasing up [2][4] - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, raw materials are stronger than finished products, and steel mill profits continue to compress [2][7] - For ferrosilicon, market sentiment has subsided, and the futures price fluctuates widely; for silicomanganese, overseas miners' quotes have increased, and the futures price also fluctuates widely [2][11] - For coke and coking coal, events are fermenting, and prices are oscillating at high levels [2][14][15] - For logs, prices fluctuate repeatedly [2][19] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the futures contract was 814.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.18%. Imported ore prices generally increased slightly, and the difference between some varieties changed. The trend strength is 0 [4] - **News**: In December 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: According to the weekly data on January 8, rebar production increased by 2.820,000 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.000,000 tons; rebar inventory increased by 16.080,000 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.830,000 tons; rebar apparent demand decreased by 25.480,000 tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 2.430,000 tons. The trend strength of both is 0 [8][9] - **News**: In late December, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased; in mid - December 2025, the daily output of key steel enterprises decreased; the government implemented export license management for some steel products; from January to October 2025, China's steel imports decreased [8][9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices and trading volumes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts changed. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The trend strength of both is 0 [11] - **News**: On January 9, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions changed; overseas miners raised their quotes for February 2026; as of January 9, the total manganese ore inventory decreased [12][13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the coking coal JM2605 contract was 1195.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5%; the closing price of the coke J2605 contract was 1748 yuan/ton, down 1.0%. The trend strength of both is 0 [15] - **News**: On January 9, the metallurgical coal index changed; the daily output of coking coal mines increased, with new production resumptions and a small number of new shutdowns [15] Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts changed. The prices of most log spot products remained stable. The trend strength is 0 [20] - **News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of enterprises at the end of 2025 [22]