金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：关税战再起，避险刺激接力；白银：关注海外逼仓情况 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 价格区间：870-930元/克、10500-11590元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升6.3%，伦敦银回升6.58%。金银比从前周的79回落至78.6，10年期TIPS回落至1.75%，10年期名义利率回落至4.02%（2年期 3.46%），美元指数录得98. 55。 ◆ 本周黄金再度创出历史新高，COMEX黄金达到4392美元/盎司，距离4400美元仅一步之遥。黄金价格高企后，上涨斜率只增不减，从突破 4000美金大关至今仅历时10天左右。我们前期提到，特朗普再度挑起贸易战，在中国稀土出口 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market - A" with a maintained rating [5]. Core Views - The market is currently influenced by the ongoing US-China trade tensions, leading to increased risk aversion. The focus is on the strategic attributes of rare earths and the safe-haven properties of gold. Despite potential short-term adjustments, the fundamentals for industrial metals, strategic metals, and precious metals remain positive, with a continued bullish outlook on metals such as rare earths, copper, aluminum, tin, gold, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium [1]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have reached new highs, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $4234.9 and $50.4 per ounce, reflecting increases of 6.5% and 7.3% respectively. Concerns over tariffs persist, and there has been a significant increase in global gold reserves, with a 19-ton increase reported in August 2025. The outlook for gold prices remains bullish in the medium to long term [2]. - Recommendations include stocks such as Shandong Gold, Shandong International, China National Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Hunan Gold [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown a slight decline, with LME copper closing at $10,607 per ton, down 1.81% from the previous week. The supply side is facing challenges, with Japanese copper smelting companies indicating reduced processing fees, leading to profit declines. Demand remains strong, with copper rod and wire cable production rates increasing [3]. - The outlook for copper prices is positive due to supply constraints, despite potential impacts from tariffs and macroeconomic policies [3]. - Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, Hebei Steel Resources, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Yunnan Copper [4]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2778.5 per ton, with a slight increase of 1.2%. The overall macroeconomic environment is optimistic, supporting stable aluminum prices. However, uncertainties from tariff wars and overseas mining events could still impact prices [4]. - The demand for aluminum remains stable, with no significant changes reported in construction and industrial material needs [4]. - Suggested stocks include Shenhuo Co., Tianshan Aluminum, Zhongfu Industrial, China Hongqiao, Hongchuang Holdings, Yunnan Aluminum, and China Aluminum [4]. Tin - Tin prices have decreased slightly, with the SHFE main contract at 280,750 yuan per ton. The market sentiment is weak, but there is an expectation of price stability due to tight supply conditions [9]. - Recommended stocks include Yunnan Tin, Huaxi Silver Tin, and Xingye Nonferrous [10]. Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices have shown slight declines, but the outlook remains positive due to expected supply changes and increased demand. The market is less pessimistic about the impacts of US-China trade tensions compared to earlier in the year [10]. - Recommended stocks include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, Shenghe Resources, Huahong Technology, Jinke Magnetics, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials [11]. - Cobalt prices are on the rise, driven by tight supply conditions and increased demand from battery manufacturers. The market is expected to see continued price increases [11]. - Recommended stocks include Huayou Cobalt, Liqin Resources, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tengyuan Cobalt, Hanrui Cobalt, and Greeenme [12].

国际金价上演惊心动魄的过山车行情，国内金饰价格应声下跌，一天之内每克暴跌28元。 美东时间周五，国际金银市场突然大幅跳水。伦敦现货黄金盘中最大跌幅超过3%，一度失守4200美元/盎司关口；白银跌势更为惨重，现货白银一度跌 穿51美元/盎司大关，最大跌幅超过6%。 这场贵金属市场的风暴迅速席卷国内黄金零售市场。 10月18日，周生生足金饰品价格从昨日的1281元/克降至1253元/克， 此次金价暴跌来得突然而迅猛。 国际金价在周五的交易日内大幅收跌1.73%，国内品牌金饰价格随之纷纷下调。 不仅周生生价格大幅下调，老庙黄金足金饰品也从1279元/克降至1262元/克， 这波下跌使得金价呈现高位震荡格局。 回顾本周初，金价还曾持续攀升至历史高位，国内足金首饰价格一度突破1200元大关。 截至10月14日，老庙足金价格曾升至1218元/克，周生生达1213元/克，谁料周五便遭遇大幅回调。 。 金价突然跳水由一系列复杂因素引发。 首先，美国媒体公布的专访预告画面显示，美国总统特朗普在贸易问题上发表温和言论。 独立金属交易商Tai Wong表示："这是特朗普自最初宣布征收1000%关税以来更为温和的语气，已经给贵金属交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a significant increase in market value and the implications for investors amid rising global economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [1][4]. Market Performance - On October 17, the London spot gold price experienced high volatility, peaking at $4,380 per ounce before a rapid decline. The total market capitalization of gold has surpassed $30 trillion [1][4]. - In the A-share market, several gold stocks, including Western Gold and Xincheng Technology, saw gains, with some stocks rising over 3% [4]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent surge in gold prices, with a nearly 13% increase since surpassing $4,000 per ounce, is attributed to several factors: 1. Expectations of liquidity easing, with the Federal Reserve likely to implement 1-2 more rate cuts by the end of the year [4]. 2. Concerns over the depreciation of the US dollar due to rising national debt and potential worsening of the deficit [4]. 3. Increased market uncertainty stemming from issues such as the US government shutdown and US-China trade conflicts [4]. Risk Management Measures - Exchanges have issued risk warnings due to the heightened volatility in gold and silver prices. The Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange have advised investors to manage risks and control positions [5]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to margin requirements and price fluctuation limits for gold and silver futures, effective from October 21, 2025, to mitigate risks associated with high volatility [5]. Long-term Price Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices will reach $4,500 per ounce by the second half of 2026, while Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce [6]. - Factors supporting this bullish outlook include continued central bank purchases and inflows into gold ETFs, which are expected to contribute significantly to price increases [6]. Potential Risks - Despite the positive outlook, there are potential risks, including the near-historic high levels of net long positions reported by the CFTC. A stagnation in price momentum could trigger large-scale sell-offs, particularly if other asset classes perform well [7].

Group 1 - The recent volatility in the gold market has sparked debates between bulls and bears, with gold prices experiencing a significant drop after reaching new highs, indicating potential overtrading and divergence from traditional drivers [2] - The U.S. economy faces uncertainties as Trump signs a new tariff order on medium and heavy trucks, which could impact economic growth, while the Federal Reserve reports challenges in consumer spending and manufacturing [2] - Global stock markets showed weakness, particularly in Asia, due to unfavorable trade conditions and concerns over high valuation stocks, although some recovery was noted in bank and tech stocks later [2] Group 2 - China's fiscal revenue showed a gradual recovery in the first three quarters, with a 0.5% year-on-year increase in general public budget revenue and a 0.7% rise in tax revenue, supported by significant government spending [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced new corporate governance guidelines for listed companies, effective January 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing governance structures and protecting investor rights [3] - Approximately 494 billion yuan flowed into stock ETFs this week, with banks and rare earth sectors attracting investment, while chemical and communication ETFs faced sell-offs [3] Group 3 - German luxury car brands experienced a decline in sales in China, with significant challenges in competing with domestic high-end brands and a slower transition to electric vehicles [4][5] - The recent issues faced by U.S. regional banks due to loan fraud cases led to a sharp decline in the regional banking index, raising concerns about potential broader implications for the banking sector [5] - Silver prices reached a historical high before retreating, with market opinions divided on whether it can sustain above the $50 mark, influenced by various demand factors [5] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar experienced fluctuations influenced by international trade tensions and Federal Reserve policies, with a weekly decline of 0.3%, while other currencies like the Swiss franc and yen strengthened [6]

Group 1 - Precious metals futures continued to decline, with spot silver dropping over 6%, marking the largest decline in six months, while spot gold briefly hit a historical high before plunging below $4200 per ounce [1] - As of the market close, spot gold was reported at $4251.45 per ounce, down 1.73%, and COMEX silver futures fell over 5%, closing at $50.63 per ounce [2][3] - NYMEX platinum futures saw a significant drop of over 7%, returning all gains from the previous two trading days, closing at $1629.80 per ounce [6] Group 2 - The sharp drop in gold prices was attributed to several factors, including a more moderate tone from U.S. President Trump regarding trade issues, which has cooled the market for precious metals [14] - Concerns about regional bank credit risks did not escalate, and the stabilization of the dollar index and U.S. stocks dampened safe-haven sentiment [14] - The relative strength index (RSI) for gold reached a peak of 88, indicating an overbought market condition [14] Group 3 - The volatility in gold prices has affected consumer behavior, with reports of delayed shipments and order cancellations from gold retailers due to fluctuating market prices [15][17] - Retailers are facing challenges as they either hold inventory at previous prices or source products post-order, leading to potential losses and order rejections [15][17] - The current environment remains supportive for gold due to expectations of interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and ongoing concerns in the banking sector [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a significant increase in market value and the response from exchanges regarding risk management measures [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On October 17, the spot price of London gold reached a high of $4,380 per ounce before a rapid decline, with the total market capitalization of gold surpassing $30 trillion [1][2]. - A-share market gold stocks, such as Western Gold and others, saw gains, with notable increases of over 4% for Cuihua Jewelry and over 3% for Western Gold and Xiaocheng Technology [2]. Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Since surpassing $4,000 per ounce in October, the spot price of London gold has increased by nearly 13% [2]. - Key factors driving the rise in precious metal prices include expectations of loose liquidity due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, concerns over the U.S. national debt, and heightened risk aversion stemming from geopolitical tensions and domestic banking issues [3][4]. Risk Management Measures - Exchanges have implemented risk warning measures due to increased volatility in gold and silver prices. The Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange have issued notifications urging investors to manage risks and maintain rational investment strategies [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to margin requirements and price fluctuation limits for gold and silver futures contracts, aimed at reducing trading leverage and mitigating risks associated with price volatility [3]. Long-term Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices could reach $4,500 per ounce by the second half of 2026, while Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce [4][6]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates continued support for gold prices from central bank purchases and inflows into gold ETFs, projecting that these factors could contribute significantly to price increases [6].

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market rebounded, benefiting from strong tech stocks, rising expectations for interest rate cuts in October, and easing risk sentiment in bank stocks [2] - On October 17, all three major U.S. indices closed higher: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.52% to 46,190.61 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.53% to 6,664.01 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.52% to 22,679.97 points [2][3] - For the week, the Dow Jones rose 1.56%, the S&P 500 increased by 1.7%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.14% [2] European Market Trends - European stock indices closed lower, with Germany's DAX down over 1.5%, France's CAC40 down 0.18%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.86% [3] Chinese Market Insights - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index initially dropped over 1.3% but later fluctuated and closed down 0.14% [3] - Specific stocks showed varied performance, with Pony.ai down over 5% and Futu Holdings up over 4% [3] Commodity Market Movements - International gold prices fell over 3%, with spot gold dropping to below $4,200 per ounce, closing down 1.73% at $4,251.448 per ounce [7][8] - The decline in gold prices led to significant drops in gold stocks, with Kinross Gold down over 9% and Barrick Gold down over 6% [7] Economic Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts noted that easing trade tensions boosted market sentiment, with confidence expressed in the ability of U.S. officials to resolve issues favorably [6] - The White House economic advisor indicated that the anticipated three interest rate cuts are just the beginning [9] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach is emphasized, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4%-4.25% during the upcoming FOMC meeting [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. credit market is experiencing significant turmoil, leading to increased risk aversion and a surge in gold prices, which reached a historical high of over $4,300 per ounce after a single-day increase of $115 [1] - Bitcoin has not demonstrated safe-haven properties, instead following the trends of U.S. tech stocks, with a recent drop below $110,000, continuing the "1011 crash" from the previous weekend [1] - In the past 24 hours, the Bitcoin market saw liquidations amounting to $700 million, affecting over 200,000 individuals, with the fear index dropping to 22, indicating extreme fear [1] Group 2 - Some sovereign nations are beginning to consider Bitcoin as a reserve asset, although Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, argues that Bitcoin has shortcomings and central banks are unlikely to hold it [2] - Dalio also critiques stablecoins, stating they are not a superior store of wealth compared to interest-bearing fiat assets, as they essentially represent a currency exchange without interest [2] - The potential of stablecoins to address U.S. Treasury issues is questioned, as it may merely shift U.S. debt from one holder to another without creating new demand [2] Group 3 - Bitcoin's recent price action shows a high of approximately $111,982 and a low of around $107,427, indicating a weak trend as it has broken below previous trading ranges, with a current focus on the support level at $100,800 [3]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3839.76 points, down 1.95%, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 3.04% to 12688.94 points [3] - The overall market saw 4781 stocks decline, marking the highest number of declining stocks in nearly a month, with a total trading volume of 1.95 trillion [3][4] - The current market sentiment is characterized by heightened risk aversion, attributed to escalating uncertainties in US-China trade relations, despite the absence of significant negative news [6] Sector Performance - All major sectors declined, but defensive sectors related to dividends, such as banking and agriculture, experienced smaller declines, with the Agricultural Bank of China rising 1.74% to a record high [6] - High-performing sectors earlier in the year, such as power equipment, electronics, and automotive, saw the largest declines, with drops of 4.99%, 4.10%, and 3.74% respectively [6] Policy and Earnings Outlook - The upcoming fourth quarter is expected to bring a series of policy announcements, including the Fourth Plenary Session and the Central Economic Work Conference, which will clarify policy directions for the following year [6] - Investment opportunities may arise from themes such as "de-involution" in new energy and semiconductors, unified markets in consumption and cycles, and marine economy [6] Bond Market - The bond market showed a continued upward trend, with all government bond futures contracts rising, particularly the 30-year contract which closed at 115.87, up 0.74% [12] - The central bank's operations indicate a relatively ample liquidity environment, with a net withdrawal of 244.2 billion from the market, yet overall funding remains sufficient [12] Commodity Market - Precious metals continued to show strength, with gold prices reaching a new high, peaking at 1001 CNY per gram, driven by risk aversion and policy expectations [12][10] - The energy sector faced downward pressure due to rising oil inventories and production levels, with the US EIA reporting an increase of 3.524 million barrels in crude oil inventories [11] Trading Hotspots - Key investment themes include precious metals driven by central bank purchases and anticipated Fed rate cuts, artificial intelligence due to increased capital expenditures by tech giants, and domestic chip production driven by technological breakthroughs [13] - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from RMB appreciation and market style shifts, while brokerage firms may see increased activity due to active trading and potential changes in trading regulations [13]