Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides operation suggestions for various futures contracts across different sectors, including stock index, treasury bond, precious metal, shipping, steel, energy, chemical, agricultural products, and new energy, based on their respective market conditions and trends [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - A-share market opened lower, oscillated, and showed differentiation, with finance and consumption sectors performing better. Index futures have stable lower support but face upward breakthrough pressure, and are affected by tariff negotiations and news in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bond futures showed differentiated trends, with ultra-long bonds performing strongly. Attention should be paid to tax periods and cross - half - year liquidity. For the 10 - year bond, 1.6% is the downward resistance level. In the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to appropriately allocate long positions on dips, and in the cash - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of TS2509 [2]. Precious Metal - Gold is in a short - term range - bound oscillation, with a possibility of hitting the $3400 mark. A double - selling strategy for gold options can be used to earn time value. Attention should be paid to the flow of speculative funds in silver, and long positions should temporarily exit [2]. Shipping - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is oscillating. It is considered to buy on dips or focus on the 12 - 10 reverse arbitrage opportunity [2]. Steel - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. For steel, unilateral operation should wait and see, and pay attention to the long - steel short - raw material arbitrage operation. Iron ore is in a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the marginal change in terminal demand [2]. Energy and Chemical - For crude oil, consider buying on dips for the main contract or focus on the 12 - 10 reverse arbitrage opportunity. For various chemical products, different operation suggestions are given according to their supply - demand and price trends, such as short - selling on rallies for some products and range - bound operation for others [2][3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural product futures have different trends. For example, sugar is recommended to be short - sold on rallies, and palm oil may test the 7800 support level [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures increased in positions and declined, and short positions should be held. Lithium carbonate futures are under pressure and are expected to run in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [4].

智通财经APP获悉，港股恒生指数跌0.70%，跌168点，报23866点；恒生科技指数跌2.08%。港股早盘成 交1525亿港元。 中东局势急剧升温，避险情绪助推国际金价创新高，招金矿业(01818)逆市涨超4%，赤峰黄金（06693） 涨13%。 集运股逆市走高，中东局势影响红海危机延续周期，中远海能(01138)涨超11%。 联合能源集团(00467)涨超21%，公司油气主业聚焦在巴基斯坦、伊拉克及埃及三大区域。 达力普控股(01921)盘中涨超14%，公司为石油专用管制造企业，中东生产基地有望撬动MENA市场。 中航科工(02357)涨4.96%，地缘紧张催化军工重估，公司在军用和民用航空市场双重布局。 北海康成-B(01228)涨超36%，近期注射用维拉苷酶β获国家药监局授予上市批准。 东方电气(01072)涨超4%，携多项光储成果亮相SNEC，与多家公司签约并围绕光储项目进一步合作。 舜宇光学(02382)跌3.82%，5月手机镜头出货量同比跌5.2%，机构称手机销售量增速或下降。 创新药概念股全线回撤，生物科技公司迎来配股潮，机构称首阶段估值修复已大致完成。康诺亚- B(02162)跌8%；博安生 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月13日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国通胀放缓，美债标售稳健，以色列袭击伊朗，早盘金价迅速走高； 美国三大股指小幅收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数跌0.79%报97.87， 离岸人民币对美元大幅升值报7.1731；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌 6.11个基点报4.359%；COMEX黄金期货涨1.88%报3406.40美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货785.16，现货781.7，基差-3.46，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单17847千克，增加30千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 6、预期：今日关注欧洲CPI终值、美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值、周日第 六轮美伊核谈判举行。美国通胀放缓，美债标售稳健，以色列袭击伊朗，金价早间 大幅拉升。沪金溢价维持至2.68元/克左右。地缘局势紧张，美伊谈判继续，金价震 荡偏多 白银 1、基本 ...

截至发稿， 山东墨龙(00568.HK)涨76.09%。据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月13日，以空军对伊朗境内数 十个与核计划和其他 军事设施相关的目标发动空袭。受此消息刺激，布伦特 原油日内盘中一度涨超 13%。 ...

6月12日，美国劳工统计局发布的PPI数据保持温和态势，关税政策对美国物价影响尚未显现。此外，美 国上周失业人数继续维持高位。由于物价保持稳定而失业数据维持高位，市场开始押注美联储年内降息 的次数。6月13日，以色列空袭伊朗，中东局势骤然紧张，避险情绪带动黄金价格上涨。现货黄金涨幅 扩大至1%，刷新5月7日以来新高至3436美元/盎司。 高盛集团最新报告指出，受区域政治风险与货币体系重构影响，现货黄金价格预计2025年年底将达3700 美元/盎司，2026年年中进一步攀升至4000美元/盎司。 有业内人士认为，此前美国公布5月财政缺口3160亿美元，年度缺口同比增长14%，进一步陷入赤字， 推动金价上涨。随着美元信用体系弱化逐步成为市场共识，叠加区域局势反复，黄金作为秩序的反面仍 将延续过去几年的交易主线，全球央行持续购金、美元信用体系的衰退、以及美联储的降息将继续推动 金价向上的趋势不变。 上海金ETF(518600)，场外联接(A类：008986；C类：008987)，该基金不涉及实物黄金交割，保管成本 更低、支持T+0交易，是方便快捷的黄金投资利器。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that rising risk aversion is driving gold prices higher, with the Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) seeing significant inflows and a current scale of 1.427 billion yuan, making it the top product in the Shenzhen market [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF closely tracks Shanghai gold (SHAU.SGE) and has lower management and custody fees compared to similar products, with a management fee of 0.25% and a custody fee of 0.05% [1] - Global markets are experiencing heightened risk aversion, with gold prices reaching a new high of 3,436 USD/ounce, reflecting a 1% increase [1] Group 2 - Recent volatility in gold prices is seen as a reflection of the restructuring of the global monetary system, with driving factors shifting from inflation expectations to sovereign credit risk and global system stability [2] - The U.S. trade policy and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to influence gold price fluctuations, with potential for prices to exceed 3,500 USD if risks escalate [2] - The U.S. administration's approach to tariffs and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, including potential military actions against Iran, are contributing to the uncertainty in the market [2]

尽管通胀数据温和，但分析人士警告，特朗普政府近期推行的关税政策可能在未来几个月推高通胀。5 月CPI上涨的主要驱动力来自住房成本（主要是租金），上涨0.3%，而食品价格也出现0.3%的反弹。然 而，服务价格的涨势放缓以及需求的不确定性，暂时抑制了通胀的上行压力。荷兰国际集团首席国际经 济学家James Knightley表示，美国经济以服务业为主，劳动力成本的放缓将有助于缓解关税带来的通胀 影响。不过，大型家电价格上涨4.3%和玩具价格上涨1.3%，已显示出关税对部分商品价格的直接推升 作用。即将于周四公布的生产者物价指数（PPI）数据，将为通胀趋势提供进一步线索。 特朗普近期表示，对通过谈判对伊朗核计划施加新限制的前景越来越没有信心。与此同时，伊朗国防部 长纳西尔扎德警告，若核谈判失败且伊朗遭到攻击，美国在中东的军事基地将成为报复目标。伊朗外交 部副部长塔赫特-拉万奇透露，伊朗正在为第六轮核谈判制定新提案，但谈判前景并不乐观。以色列国 防军已进入高度戒备状态，以防冲突升级。这些不确定性令市场避险情绪迅速升温，黄金作为传统避险 资产的吸引力大幅增强.地缘政治风险的进一步升级体现在美国对中东地区军事部署的调整上 ...

期货热点追踪 美国5月CPI低于预期，沪金强势走高，沪银小幅飘绿，机构分析表示，美国数据疲软叠加避险情绪升 温，预计金价将继续维持高震荡走势，而银价短期有一定获利回吐压力。 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since June, gold prices have shown a pattern of rising and then retreating, with a notable increase following President Trump's announcement to raise steel and aluminum tariffs, but subsequently declining [1] - From late April, gold prices have consistently retreated from a high of $3400 per ounce to below $3200 per ounce, while domestic gold prices fell from 800 yuan per gram to below 750 yuan per gram, indicating significant profit-taking by long positions [1][2] - The high retreat in gold prices is attributed to both substantial gains in April and a diminishing impact of U.S. tariff policies, leading to a higher market risk appetite [1] Group 2: Global Equity Market Recovery - Following the uncertainty post-Trump's inauguration, global equity markets experienced a downturn, while gold prices surged; however, since late April, gold prices have retreated as global equity markets began to recover [2] - The easing of expectations regarding U.S. tariff policies, particularly after the May 12 joint statement from the U.S., China, and Japan, contributed to the decline in gold prices back to pre-tariff levels [2] - Macro indicators show signs of economic recovery, with improvements in manufacturing PMIs in China and the Eurozone, suggesting a potential upward trend in global markets [2] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has significantly declined in June, primarily due to an increase in silver prices, indicating a decrease in market risk aversion [3] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to a recovery in industrial demand, with notable increases in copper and crude oil prices as well [3] - Historically, significant increases in silver prices often occur in the latter stages of a gold price rally, typically following a crisis and coinciding with a recovery in industrial demand [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - In the long term, the trend for gold remains upward despite current pressures, influenced by trends of de-dollarization and weak performance of the U.S. dollar and bonds [4] - Short-term strategies should focus on market rhythm, as easing U.S. tariff impacts may lead to a continued decline in risk aversion, putting pressure on gold prices [4] - Silver, benefiting from its industrial applications, is expected to continue its upward trajectory in a recovering economy, especially as it breaks out of a year-long trading range [4]

市场反应：美元指数周三跌0.4%，周四亚市早盘跌至98.42（近一周新低）；美债收益率下跌，CMEFedWatch工具显示美联储9月降息概率升至70%。 1、美国通胀数据疲软，降息预期升温 数据表现：5月CPI环比涨0.1%（预期0.2%），同比涨2.4%；核心CPI环比涨0.1%，同比涨2.8%，均低于预期。 黄金周三（6月11日）早盘开始震荡上涨，欧盘初上涨3348/3349附近后受阻下跌，在跌至3326附近后再次转涨。美盘受到CPI数据影响，黄金急涨至3361附 近后受阻下跌，凌晨最低下跌至3319附近。在美伊核谈判局面急转直下，美国下令减少驻伊拉克使团规模消息出来后，黄金大涨，收盘前上涨至3355/3356 附近，日线收出一根阳线。 一、基本面 潜在矛盾：关税政策可能推高未来通胀（如大型家电价格涨4.3%、玩具涨1.3%），但当前服务业通胀温和暂时抑制上行压力。 再看四小时级别，黄金在周三尾盘大涨，今日早盘延续了这一涨势。不过，在尚未突破上周高点3403/3404之前，整体结构思路不变，逢高寻找做空机会， 以观察行情是否会出现调整。 在短线阻力位方面，上方可先关注3375、3380附近。其中，3375 ...