12 月美联储如期降息，更显"鸽派"。一是鲍威尔成功管控内部分歧，仅 2 票反对 降息。二是启动准备金管理型扩表，自 12 月起每月以 400 亿美元购买短期国债，释 放流动性。三是美联储上修 GDP 预测并下修通胀预测，指向 2026 年美国经济回暖， 通胀可控。展望看，明年一季度美联储或暂缓降息，待二季度新任美联储主席上台后， 自 6 月起至 11 月中选前的 4 次议息会议上择机降息 2-3 次。 2025 年 12 月 12 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】如期降息，扩表在途——2025 年 12 月 FOMC 会议点评 | 外汇市场 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 中间价 | | 涨跌 | | 美元兑人民币 | 7.0753 | -0.03 | | 欧元兑人民币 | 8.2258 | -0.14 | | 日元兑人民币 | 0.0451 | -0.64 | | 港币兑人民币 | 0.9093 | -0.06 | | 利率市场 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回购市场 前加权平均利率% | | 涨跌 BP | | DR001 | 1. ...

新华财经北京12月12日电（记者翟卓）12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，分析当前经济 形势并部署2026年工作。会议强调"要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策""灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政 策工具""保持流动性充裕"等。 再综合考虑明年经济金融形势以及物价走势，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青判断，2026年政策性降息幅 度或达0.2至0.3个百分点，降准幅度有望达到1个百分点。 "若从稳定明年一季度宏观经济运行等角度出发，不排除今年底或明年初就有降息降准落地的可能。而 着眼于推动房地产市场止跌回稳，2026年还有可能引导5年期以上贷款市场报价利率（LPR）单独下 行。"王青说。 业内专家表示，总的来看，货币政策延续了"适度宽松"基调，降准降息仍然可期，但也会更加注重"相 机抉择"以提高实施质效，结构性货币政策工具或再度"量增价降"，政策落地成效则有望成为下阶段宏 观政策部门的主要关注对象。 ——延续"适度宽松"政策基调强调"灵活高效"降准降息 会议明确，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。"该表述延续了去年中央经济工作会议基调，表明我国 在'十五五'开局之年仍需以适度宽松的货币金融环境支持实体经济高质量发展。 ...

2025.12.11 本文字数：2300，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 亓宁 临近年末，全球经济走势和政策取向是市场最关注的话题。近日，世界银行、国际货币基金组织、亚洲 开发银行等国际机构密集上调了2025年中国经济增速预期。 展望2026年，全球经济怎么走？中国经济的韧性支撑来自哪里？主要经济体货币政策还有多大空间？12 月11日，渣打银行大中华区及北亚首席经济学家丁爽在一场交流会上提到，考虑到美国GDP增长加 速、通胀压力不减，明年美联储可能不会再降息。他判断，中国明年一季度和二季度将分别降准和降息 一次，但未来更多将依靠其他货币政策工具维持流动性充裕，央行国债买卖的作用会越来越大。 美联储还有多大降息空间？ 近期，多家国际机构密集上调了2025年中国经济增速预期。其中，世界银行、国际货币基金组织、亚洲 开发银行分别上调0.4、0.2、0.1个百分点。 丁爽认为，中国经济已经从短期的风险应对模式转换到长期的经济转型模式，尤其随着外部环境变化， 通过技术投资、产业升级提升劳动生产率、培育新的经济增长点越来越受到重视。 展望2026年，丁爽认为，相较于外贸支撑贡献更大、投资明显拖累增长、消费前高后低的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference outlines key tasks and policy arrangements for 2026, emphasizing the need for economic potential exploration, policy support, and reform innovation to achieve quality and reasonable growth in the economy [2][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2026 will maintain a "more proactive" stance, with a fiscal deficit rate expected to be no lower than 4%, reflecting the need to stimulate economic growth and address local fiscal challenges [3][4]. - The fiscal deficit for this year is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, indicating a strong commitment to using fiscal tools to boost demand [3][4]. - There is a clear trend towards increasing spending on healthcare, education, and social security, highlighting a focus on "investing in people" [4][5]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will adopt a "more proactive" approach, with an emphasis on flexible and efficient use of tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments to maintain liquidity [6][7]. - The expectation is for 1-2 instances of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026, with a focus on maintaining a stable financing environment [6][7]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be enhanced to support key areas such as domestic demand expansion and technological innovation [7]. Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with specific policies aimed at increasing residents' income and stabilizing investment [8]. - The conference emphasizes the need for a plan to boost urban and rural residents' income, aligning with the broader goal of enhancing consumption capacity [8]. - Investment strategies will focus on increasing central budget investments and optimizing project implementation to stabilize investment levels [8]. Real Estate Market - The conference stresses the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with "de-stocking" identified as a key strategy for 2026 [10][11]. - Measures will include city-specific policies to control new supply and encourage the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [11][12]. Capital Market Reforms - The conference highlights the need for continuous deepening of capital market reforms, focusing on enhancing the market's ability to support technological innovation and the real economy [13][14]. - Reforms will include improving the adaptability of capital market systems and encouraging long-term investments [13][14]. Innovation and Technology - The establishment of three major international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is emphasized as a core strategy for fostering new economic momentum [15][16]. - These centers will leverage existing research and development resources to enhance China's competitiveness in global technology [15][16][17]. Market Environment and Competition - The conference outlines plans to optimize the market environment and reduce "involution" competition, aiming to enhance economic vitality and support high-quality development [18][19]. - A nationwide unified market construction regulation is proposed to address existing regulatory gaps and improve market efficiency [18]. International Trade and Investment - The conference calls for promoting more regional and bilateral trade and investment agreements, reinforcing China's commitment to multilateral trade systems [20][21]. - The focus will be on expanding high-standard free trade agreements and enhancing trade relations with partners [20][21].

本文字数：2300，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 临近年末，全球经济走势和政策取向是市场最关注的话题。近日，世界银行、国际货币基金组织、亚 洲开发银行等国际机构密集上调了2025年中国经济增速预期。 展望2026年，全球经济怎么走？中国经济的韧性支撑来自哪里？主要经济体货币政策还有多大空 间？12月11日，渣打银行大中华区及北亚首席经济学家丁爽在一场交流会上提到， 考虑到美国 GDP增长加速、通胀压力不减，明年美联储可能不会再降息。 他判断， 中国明年一季度和二季度将 分别降准和降息一次，但未来更多将依靠其他货币政策工具维持流动性充裕，央行国债买卖的作用会 越来越大。 美联储还有多大降息空间？ "明年全球经济增长率预计和今年持平。"丁爽认为，全球经济明年能够维持3.4%的增长率，但结构 上会发生一定变化：一是全球贸易增长较今年会放缓；二是消费推动力下降，投资驱动增强；三是多 数经济体降息周期接近尾声，经济增长更多将来自财政政策支持。 2025.12. 11 12月8日召开的中共中央政治局会议提到，明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政 策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for a dual approach of policy support and reform innovation to enhance economic potential and achieve a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a projected economic growth target of around 5% for 2026 [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2026 will maintain a "more proactive" stance, with a fiscal deficit rate not lower than 4%, reflecting the need to stimulate economic growth and address local fiscal challenges [3][4]. - The fiscal deficit for this year is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, the highest in recent years, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending to support economic stability [3][4]. - There is a clear trend towards increasing spending on healthcare, education, and social security, highlighting a focus on "investing in people" [5]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to be "appropriately loose," with an emphasis on flexible and efficient use of tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [7][8]. - The expectation is for 1-2 instances of RRR cuts or interest rate reductions in 2026, with a focus on maintaining a stable liquidity environment [8]. - The conference aims to guide financial institutions to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand and technological innovation [8]. Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with specific policies to implement a plan for increasing urban and rural residents' income and stabilizing investment [10][11]. - The focus on consumer spending and investment as key drivers for domestic demand reflects a shift towards demand-side economic strategies [10]. Real Estate Market - The conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, with "de-stocking" as a key strategy, particularly in light of high inventory levels in many cities [13][14]. - Measures include encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing, which aims to optimize market supply and meet housing needs [14]. Capital Market Reform - The conference highlights the need for continuous deepening of capital market reforms to enhance support for technological innovation and the real economy [15][17]. - There is a focus on improving the inclusivity and adaptability of capital market systems, with an emphasis on attracting long-term investment [15][17]. Innovation and Technology - The establishment of three major international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is aimed at fostering innovation and addressing global technological competition [19][20]. - The centers will focus on leveraging existing resources and enhancing collaboration to drive technological advancements and economic transformation [19][20]. Market Environment and Competition - The conference outlines plans to optimize the market environment and stimulate enterprise vitality through reforms, including the establishment of a unified national market [22][23]. - There is a commitment to addressing "involution" in competition, with targeted policies to mitigate its negative effects on the economy [23]. International Trade and Investment - The conference stresses the importance of signing more regional and bilateral trade agreements to enhance cooperation and maintain a multilateral trade system [25][26]. - The goal is to expand high-standard free trade networks and facilitate trade and investment with partners, particularly in the context of the RCEP and other agreements [25][26].

2025 年 12 月 11 日 总量研究 降准降息或将较快落地 ——2025 年 12 月 11 日利率债观察 要点 1、降准降息或将较快落地 2025 年 12 月 11-12 日召开的中央经济工作会议要求"灵活高效运用降准降息 等多种政策工具"。我们预计，未来一、两个月内降准或降息落地的概率较高。 降准和降息既有共同的作用，也受到共同的制约。此外，补充银行体系流动性是 降准特有的作用，而降息还受到银行净息差的制约。我们认为，在不同阶段宜根 据经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况选择不同的政策工具。 降准和降息共同的作用：保持社会融资条件相对宽松，促进经济稳定增长。当然， 两个工具的作用机制是不同的。降准主要是通过向银行提供低成本长期资金，降 息主要是通过直接带动 LPR 等利率下行。（注：两者也会通过影响市场主体预 期等渠道促进经济稳定增长。）一般来说，10bp OMO 降息较 0.5 个百分点降准 的作用会更明显一些。 降准和降息共同受到的制约：货币政策的空间。当前 7D OMO 利率为 1.4%，倘 若每次降 10bp 的话，在降 14 次后便会触及零利率。当前大型银行的存款准备 金率为 7.5%，倘若每 ...

董希淼认为，这意味着未来各部门、各地区、各领域的政策将更注重协调配合，形成合力。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。此次会议部署2026年经济工作，在部署明年货币政策 时，会议称，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，并提出"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"。 明明分析，2026年作为"十五五"起步之年，将在更积极的宏观政策组合和更前瞻性的结构改革推动下实 现经济的稳健开局，为迈向2035年现代化远景奠定坚实基础。 具体而言，会议提出，要把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。灵活高效运用 降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内 需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 （文章来源：第一财经） 招联首席研究员董希淼认为，从货币政策看，为继续保持适度宽松的基调，并配合财政政策发力，预计 2026年存款利率和政策利率将进一步下降，可能实施降准降息一至两次，并且更加注重发挥结构性货币 政策工具作用，引导金融资源更多流向科技创新、绿色发展、提振消费。但货币政策不会"大水漫灌"， 将注重把握和处理好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部与外部三方面的关 ...

（大众新闻·风口财经记者 刘晓） 编辑：刘晓 "从货币政策看，为继续保持适度宽松的基调，并配合财政政策发力，预计2026年货币政策将有进一步 加大实施力度的空间和可能。"招联首席研究员董希淼对风口财经记者表示。 会议强调，"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"。董希淼指出，对降准降息等工具运用的要求 是"灵活高效"，是新的提法。"灵活"，表明将根据内外部环境变化和经济发展需要，适时运用货币政策 工具，该出手时就出手；"高效"，表明运用降准降息等工具时，要更多考虑政策有效性和针对性，既要 加大力度支持经济增长，也要加强防范重点领域风险。 董希淼预计，2026年存款利率和政策利率将进一步下降，贷款市场报价利率（LPR）有望稳中有降，并 更加注重发挥结构性货币政策工具作用，引导金融资源更多流向科技创新、绿色发展、提振消费。未来 一段时间，货币政策将更加注重把握和处理好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部与外部三方面的关 系。 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议提出，"要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进 经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持 流动性 ...

Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing outlined the economic work for 2026, emphasizing the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the flexible use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1] - The conference highlighted the importance of promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and enhance the transmission mechanism of monetary policy [1] - Financial institutions are encouraged to increase support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Group 2 - Several ETFs are expected to benefit directly from the clear positioning in four core investment directions, including new consumption, essential consumption, domestic substitution, and technological innovation [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF (159285) is poised to capture the consumption recovery benefits from liquidity easing, tracking the National Index of Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme [2] - The Food and Beverage ETF (516900) focuses on the essential consumption sector, with strong performance linked to the industry's economic conditions, covering 50 core stocks in the food and beverage industry [2] Group 3 - The chip industry is recognized as a foundational element of the digital economy and artificial intelligence, attracting long-term investment interest [3] - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) targets core drivers of industrial upgrading, tracking the ChiNext 50 Index and selecting leading companies in sectors such as new energy vehicles, biomedicine, electronics, and photovoltaic [3] - The ChiNext 50 ETF is noted for its large scale and good liquidity in the market, providing opportunities for investors [3] Group 4 - CITIC Securities anticipates that the "wide fiscal + wide monetary" policy will continue into 2026, with room for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions expected in late 2025 to early 2026 [4] - Structural tools will focus on key areas such as technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance to enhance policy precision [4] - The year 2026 is seen as a starting point for the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming for a stable economic start supported by proactive macro policies and forward-looking structural reforms [4]