Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Contracts continue to decline, in line with the daily report's expectations. Given the high difficulty of trading recently, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines. In the context of geopolitical conflicts, the trading difficulty is high, and the market is prone to decline and difficult to rise without more positive news. [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On June 23, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1937.14 points, up 14.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 2083.46 points, down 28.4% from the previous period. On June 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1382.05 points, down 10.07% from the previous period. [2] - On June 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1869.59 points, down 218.65 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1835 USD/TEU, down 0.49% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2772 USD/FEU, down 32.86% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1342.46 points, up 8.0% from the previous period. [2] - On June 25, the main contract 2508 closed at 1740.2, down 3.07%, with a trading volume of 50,800 lots and an open interest of 43,500 lots, a decrease of 1263 lots from the previous day. [3] Macroeconomic Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49); services PMI flash was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1); composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The Sentix Investor Confidence Index in May was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5). [2] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024. [2] - US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3 (a three - month high, expected 49.9, previous 50.2); services PMI flash was 52.3 (a two - month high, expected 51, previous 50.8); composite PMI flash was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6). [2] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: Without an obvious fundamental turnaround, it is recommended to try shorting on rallies. It has been suggested to short lightly when the 2508 contract rebounds above 2000. Hold existing short positions and stop - loss long positions, setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. [4] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil and large fluctuations, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now. [4] - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when contracts rally and wait for a pullback to stabilize before determining the subsequent direction. [4] - Circuit breakers: The circuit breakers for contracts 2506 - 2604 are adjusted to 16%. [4] - Margin: The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%. [4] - Daily opening limit: The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots. [4] Geopolitical News - Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Chairman Mohammad Eslami said on the 24th that the Iranian government has taken necessary measures to ensure the continuation of the Iranian nuclear program after military strikes by Israel and the US. [5] - Iranian President Pezeshkian announced on the 24th that the 12 - day war initiated by Israel has ended, and he called on all agencies to focus on reconstruction. [5]

Group 1: Conference Overview - The CITIC Futures 2025 Mid-Year Strategy Conference was held on June 25, 2025, in Shanghai, focusing on the theme "Riding the Wind and Breaking the Waves" [1] - The conference featured one main forum and ten sub-forums, covering macroeconomics, equity, bonds, commodities, exchange rates, asset management, OTC derivatives, and overseas markets [1] Group 2: Keynote Speeches - CITIC Futures Chairman Dou Changhong emphasized the company's commitment to high-quality industrial services and the globalization of futures business [2] - Fudan University Professor Shen Guobing discussed the impact of Trump's tariff policies on Sino-U.S. trade, highlighting the challenges of trade fragmentation, geopolitical conflicts, and climate crises [3] - Yang Delong, Chief Economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, noted that U.S. stocks are in a high valuation phase, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are attracting significant foreign investment [4] Group 3: Market Outlooks - CITIC Futures Vice President Zeng Ning provided an outlook on the macro and commodity markets, indicating that the real estate sector will continue to drag down commodity demand for 1-2 years [5] - The Financial Forum discussed the shift from tariff-driven to dollar-driven macro themes, with a focus on structural allocation in A-shares [6] - The Nonferrous Forum highlighted the influence of U.S. trade policies on the market, with basic metals expected to remain strong despite macro uncertainties [8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The Agricultural Forum indicated that many agricultural products are facing price declines due to high supply, with potential supply contractions in the future [9] - The Black Forum discussed the cyclical downturn in construction steel demand, while the coal and coke markets face long-term pressure [10] - The Energy Transition Forum addressed the oversupply pressures in both traditional and new energy sectors, with coal and natural gas markets expected to face challenges [11][12] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The Asset Management Forum explored the innovative use of derivatives in wealth management, emphasizing the importance of risk management tools [15] - The Chemical Forum discussed the relationship between refined oil and chemical products, with a focus on market dynamics and potential investment opportunities [14] Group 6: Conclusion - The conference successfully provided a platform for sharing insights and strategies, reinforcing CITIC Futures' commitment to compliance, integrity, professionalism, and responsibility in the industry [16]

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant increase in equity market performance, driven by the participation of stabilizing funds and a growing fear of missing out among investors [2][6][15] - The report highlights a notable rise in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 increasing by 1.04% and 1.44% respectively, while the technology sector showed strong performance [2][6] - The report discusses the volatility in oil and gold prices, with oil prices experiencing a sharp decline followed by a slight rebound, reflecting market stabilization [3][4] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3455.97, up by 1.04%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.44% to 3960.07 [1] - The report notes that the technology sector, particularly the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50, saw significant gains of 3.11% and 1.73% respectively [2] - The bond market showed a mixed performance, with long-term bonds underperforming compared to short-term bonds, as indicated by the slight increase in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds [2][6] Market Sentiment and Trends - Market sentiment appears to be stabilizing, with a shift towards observing price movements in oil and gold after significant fluctuations [3] - The report mentions that the recent influx of funds into stock ETFs indicates a growing bullish sentiment among investors, as evidenced by the increase in options trading volume [8][9] - Historical comparisons suggest that the current market rally is reminiscent of previous periods where stabilizing funds led to significant upward movements in stock prices [12][14][15] Sector Analysis - The report identifies potential investment opportunities across various sectors, including consumer goods, technology, and military industries, driven by policy expectations and market dynamics [14][15] - It emphasizes the importance of a diversified investment approach, particularly in light of the current market conditions and the potential for volatility [15]

2025年6月25日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 以伊冲突缓和,原油继续大跌, EC盘面低开低走, 符合日报预期, 近期博弈难度较大, 建议轻仓参与或观望。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 6月23日 | 6月20日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1937.14点，较上期上涨14.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1382.05点，较上期下跌10.07% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1299.58点，较上期下跌0.64% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）2083.46点，较上期下跌28.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1586.05点，较上期下跌28.91% | | 6月20日 | | | | 6月20日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1869.59点，较上期下跌218.65点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1342.46点，较上期上涨8.0% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1835USD/TEU, 较上期下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflict trading is expected to be a short - term market trend before a substantial supply disruption occurs. Oil prices may maintain a certain risk premium in the third quarter. In the medium - and long - term, the idle capacity to mitigate supply disruption risks is mainly concentrated in OPEC+. The demand side's support for oil prices is expected to be limited. The downward economic growth trend and structural changes in oil consumption restrict the medium - and long - term demand growth space. In the second half of the year, pricing drivers are expected to come more from the supply side. Without geopolitical conflict disturbances, the pattern of stronger supply elasticity will still suppress the rebound space of oil prices. The Brent price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 80 per barrel. If a substantial supply disruption occurs due to geopolitical conflicts, it will bring significant upward risks to oil prices [5][113] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 1H25 Oil Price Trend Review - In the first half of 2025, the average Brent oil price was around $71 per barrel, a decrease of about 7% compared to the second half of last year. In the second quarter, the implied volatility of oil prices rose significantly twice in April and June. In early April, the US announced a reciprocal tariff policy, and OPEC+ unexpectedly accelerated production growth, causing oil prices to drop nearly $15 per barrel in a short time. Brent twice fell below $60 per barrel, hitting a four - year low. In June, Israel's sudden air strike on Iran led to a sharp rise in oil prices. The SC crude oil futures in Shanghai outperformed Brent due to geopolitical conflicts [17] 2. Geopolitical Conflict Risks Rise and Fall Sharply, Testing Global Supply Stability 2.1. The Iran - Israel Conflict Re - triggers Market Concerns about the Navigation Safety of the "Oil Choke Point" - The Iran - Israel conflict on June 13 led to a sharp rise in geopolitical conflict risks and a significant increase in oil prices. Iran's current oil production and exports are at a high level. Sanctions may affect Iran's supply in the long term, and the US may further upgrade sanctions. The passage interruption risk of the Strait of Hormuz is more likely to cause market panic. The trade flow of crude oil and petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 27% of the global total. Only a few countries have pipelines to bypass it. Geopolitical conflicts also affect the pricing differences of oil prices in different regions and the crack spread of petroleum products [21][22][25][27][32] 2.2. Venezuela's Supply Declines Marginally, and Russia's Supply Remains Stable - Chevron's operating license in Venezuela expired on May 27. Venezuela's crude oil production and exports have declined. Russia's crude oil exports in the first five months averaged about 3.35 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 250,000 barrels per day. Currently, Russia's supply remains stable [39][42] 3. OPEC+ Production Policy Tends to Maintain Market Share - Eight OPEC+ member countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. OPEC+ production has rebounded since April but is less than the agreed - upon increase target. The main purpose of increasing production is to maintain market share. Most countries have a certain scale of theoretical idle capacity. Kazakhstan's over - production has led to an increased risk of it exiting OPEC+ [44][45][46][51] 4. Non - OPEC+ Supply: US Production Growth Potential is Constrained, and Offshore Production will Contribute the Main Increment 4.1. The Negative Impact of Falling Oil Prices on US Shale Oil Production Growth is Apparent - US crude oil production growth has slowed down. The decline in oil prices has significantly inhibited the capital expenditure willingness of US upstream producers. The number of oil rigs and fracturing equipment has decreased, and the free cash flow of listed shale oil producers has deteriorated. The negative impact of low oil prices on shale oil supply growth has begun to appear [55][61][62][63] 4.2. Conventional Offshore Oilfield Projects are Expected to Contribute Most of the Non - OPEC+ Increment - From now until the end of 2026, global offshore oilfield projects are in a capacity release cycle. Brazil, Guyana, and the US offshore are expected to contribute the main increments. Brazil's production is expected to increase to around 3.9 million barrels per day. Guyana's full - load production is expected to approach 1 million barrels per day. The US Gulf of Mexico's offshore oil production is expected to remain around 1.8 million barrels per day. Canada's future production growth is limited [69][72][75][76] 5. The Expectation of Slowing Economic Growth and Consumption Structure Transformation Restrict the Demand Growth Space 5.1. China's Refinery Operating Rates Continue to Differentiate, and Processing Volume Growth is Weak - China's industrial crude oil processing volume from January to May increased by 0.3% year - on - year. The operating rates of different types of refineries in China are differentiated. The production of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene has decreased, and the proportion of kerosene in exports has increased. China's crude oil imports have increased slightly, and inventories have risen [81][82][86][88] 5.2. Global Crude Oil Inventories Rise, and Refined Oil Inventories Remain at a Low Level - The processing volumes of major global refining regions have shown mixed trends. Global crude oil inventories have risen, with non - OECD countries, especially China, contributing to the increase. Refined oil inventories in Europe and the US are still at a low level. Diesel demand improvement needs to be further verified, and gasoline demand shows a structural change [93][96][98][99] 5.3. Multiple Factors Restrict the Global Demand Outlook - The three major institutions have lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025. The long - term structural changes in oil consumption, such as the increase in new energy vehicle penetration and the continuation of the home - office model, restrict the growth of oil demand [106][109] 6. Investment Recommendations - Geopolitical conflict trading is expected to be short - term before a substantial supply disruption. In the third quarter, oil prices may maintain a risk premium. In the second half of the year, pricing is more driven by the supply side. The Brent price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 80 per barrel. A substantial supply disruption due to geopolitical conflicts will bring significant upward risks to oil prices [113]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-25 地缘冲突缓和，⿊⾊偏弱震荡 伊以局势缓和，受此影响双焦再度转弱。除此之外⿊⾊板块处于真空 期，能交易的其他驱动⾮常有限。产业⽅⾯热卷需求回暖，螺纹季节 性下⾏。供应端铁⽔⾼位回升，整体供需均环⽐⾛强，库存暂⽆压 ⼒。不过市场对后市需求预期依然偏悲观，整体⽽⾔，盘⾯仍处于震 荡盘整阶段。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山开始财年末和季末冲量，发运量有季节性 增加预期，7月上旬之前发运或将维持高位，但同比增量有限；需求 端钢企盈利率和铁水回升，预计短期可以维持高位。本周到港季节性 回升，港口小幅累库。短期海外矿山季末冲发运，矿石库存有阶段性 小幅累库预期，但预计幅度有限，整体供需矛盾不突出。近期重点关 注需求端钢企盈利状况和检修计划。 2、碳元素方面，近期主产区环保及安全检查趋严，煤矿间歇式停产 现象较多，焦煤产量持续下滑，但整体供应的收缩幅度相对有限； 进口方面，贸易商拉运积极性偏弱，口岸通关延续低位。需求端， 焦炭产量高位回落，焦企在去库及亏损压力下、开工存在进一步下降 预期。库存端，焦煤刚需有所下滑、下游原料补库需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas geopolitical risks may intensify short - term market volatility and disrupt risk preferences. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern continues. One should be vigilant about volatility jumps, pay attention to non - dollar assets, and maintain a strategic allocation of resource products such as gold. Domestic economic stability is maintained, and domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The logic of policy - driven growth will be strengthened in the second half of the year [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In June, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, with a more cautious view on the second - half rate - cut expectation. In May, the US retail sales month - on - month rate dropped significantly from 0.1% to - 0.9%, the industrial output month - on - month rate fell by 0.2%, and the June New York Fed manufacturing index was - 16. The US economic fundamentals face geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects, and rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to issue hawkish signals [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations for the second half of the year. As of now, 162 billion yuan of "national subsidy" funds have been allocated to local governments, and the remaining funds will be disbursed in an orderly manner. In May, fixed - asset investment continued to expand, manufacturing investment grew rapidly, service industry growth accelerated, and the decline in the year - on - year prices of commercial residential buildings in cities of all tiers continued to narrow. The added value of industrial enterprises above the national scale increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The service production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 reached 4.1326 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [6]. - **Asset Views**: The domestic economy maintains a stable pattern, and domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts, and the fiscal policy will implement established measures in the short term. Overseas, the inflation - expectation structure flattens, economic growth expectations improve, and stagflation trading cools down [7]. - **Finance**: The bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures are experiencing the release of crowded funds, stock index options need to wait for a decline in volatility, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market has weakened. All are expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Precious Metals**: With the improvement of risk appetite, precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments. The short - term adjustment of gold and silver will continue due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [7]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the loading rate in June. The market for container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, with a focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Due to the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, coal and coke drive the black - building materials market to strengthen. Most products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are expected to fluctuate, while soda ash is expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Amid the coexistence of low inventory and weak demand expectations, non - ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate. Some products like zinc and nickel are expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil will maintain high volatility. Most energy - chemical products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like crude oil, asphalt, and others expected to decline slightly, while some like ethylene glycol and short - fiber are expected to rise slightly [9]. - **Agriculture**: After substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations, the sentiment is positive for the cotton - price rebound. Most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like oils and fats expected to decline slightly [9].

Group 1: Market Performance - The NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by 0.21%, -0.15%, and 0.02% respectively, while the NASDAQ China Technology Index fell 1.26% and the Hang Seng Index dropped 1.52% from 20250616 - 20250622 [2] - Most A - share sectors declined, with the banking sector leading the gain. The wind All - A Index changed - 1.07%, and among 30 CITIC industries, only 4 rose and 26 fell, with the banking sector having a weekly gain of over 3% [3] - Interest - rate bond prices rose slightly and the yield curve shifted downward. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.12%, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond fell 0.44 BP to 1.6396% [4] - The US Treasury bond yield decreased and the curve shifted downward. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield dropped 3 BP to 4.38% as of June 20, 2025 [7] - The US dollar appreciated and the gold price fell. The US dollar index increased 0.63%, and the London gold spot price dropped 1.95% to $3,368.25 per ounce [8][9] Group 2: Market Liquidity and Policy - The capital price was divided, and the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 102.1 billion yuan from 20250616 - 20250622 [5] - The bond market leverage level increased, with the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume rising from 7.95 trillion yuan on June 13 to 8.32 trillion yuan on June 20, 2025 [6] - The Fed's June FOMC meeting did not cut interest rates, maintaining the rate in the 4.25 - 4.50% range. The median forecast for the 2025 interest rate is 3.9%, equivalent to two rate cuts [10] - The loose monetary policy at the Lujiazui Forum did not materialize. The central bank governor announced eight financial opening - up measures but no specific monetary policy operations [11] Group 3: Geopolitical Situation - The conflict between Israel and Iran may continue, which could affect the improvement of market risk preference [12] - The US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, 2025. The conflict may be limitedly escalated, and its duration may be extended [13][14] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The report is optimistic about the oil and gas and banking sectors in A - shares, as well as opportunities in the bond market and gold. A - shares are at a relatively high level in the shock range, and the yield of domestic interest - rate bonds has limited decline [15][16]

Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on military materials and suggests focusing on core assets in the military materials sector due to irreversible trends in conflicts [11][12] - The report indicates that the wind power industry is expected to maintain high growth due to government subsidies, with an anticipated new installation capacity of 105-115 GW in 2025 [8][9] Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,420.57, up by 1.15% [4] - The new materials sector experienced a decline, with the new materials index down by 1.18%, while the semiconductor materials and electronic chemicals showed slight variations [8] Macroeconomic Analysis - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rates, reflecting concerns over tariffs' impact on inflation, with core PCE inflation expectations raised from 2.8% to 3.1% for 2025 [6][7] - Employment data in the U.S. remains weak, with initial jobless claims showing a slight decline but still at high levels, indicating a cooling economy [6] Industry Commentary - The chemical raw materials sector is influenced by government policies, particularly in renewable energy, which is expected to drive the wind power industry forward [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of military materials in light of increasing global military expenditures, projected to rise by 9.4% in 2024, the highest growth rate since 1993 [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Haohua Technology and Tongyi Zhong, which are positioned to benefit from increased military spending and have strong competitive advantages in their respective fields [11][12] - It also recommends monitoring products imported from Iran and Israel, which may face supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that crude oil futures continue to decline, with SC crude oil dropping over 8% [1] - Analysts suggest that if geopolitical conflicts show signs of easing, crude oil prices will revert to being driven by fundamental pricing [1] - In the short term, geopolitical tensions may still persist, leading to a volatile oil price environment [1]