Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The domestic spot discount of zinc has been significantly repaired, and the overseas inventory has increased, but the spot premium remains at a high level. The social inventory is expected to continue to decline. After the absolute price of zinc fell, the downstream's acceptance of the price increased significantly. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic mining TC in November further decreased significantly, and the overseas mining TC also decreased synchronously. The smelters actively purchased domestic and foreign ores, and the import TC guidance price for the first quarter of next year decreased month - on - month. The short - term TC still shows a downward trend. The smelting end is under pressure, and the comprehensive smelting profit is severely compressed. The high - cost areas are facing comprehensive losses, and the smelting enthusiasm will be suppressed, so the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease more than expected. The overseas warrant inventory is still at a low level, and there is still a warrant risk. Most of the micro - data has changed from bearish to bullish. In terms of the macro - aspect, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the US in December and January has weakened, and the zinc price is expected to be resistant to the decline caused by the emotional recession [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $129.76 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 22,420 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 22,360 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 22,380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On November 19, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,360 yuan/ton and closed at 22,420 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 91,247 lots, and the position was 67,487 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,475 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 22,330 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of November 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 156,600 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 45,075 tons, an increase of 1,550 tons from the previous trading day [4]. 3.2 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive spread arbitrage [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are affected by emotions and news, with significant price fluctuations. The industrial silicon market may see an improved supply - demand pattern after southwest production cuts, while the polysilicon market has large inventory pressure and is affected by policies and weak reality [3][7] - For industrial silicon, the current valuation is low, and if there are relevant policies, the price may rise. For polysilicon, the consumption side performs averagely, and the market is expected to be volatile [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8985 yuan/ton and closed at 9390 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan/ton (4.68%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 306,669 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43,412 lots, up 10 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton [1] - The price of organic silicon DMC was 13000 - 13200 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton. Other downstream product prices also rose, with a cumulative increase of about 1700 - 2200 yuan/ton in a week [2] Strategy - The spot price is stable with some increases. After southwest production cuts, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the total inventory has decreased. The current industrial silicon market is affected by overall commodity emotions and policy news. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and consider going long on dry - season contracts at low prices [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures oscillated strongly, opening at 52,300 yuan/ton and closing at 54,625 yuan/ton, up 4.28% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 134,317 lots, and the trading volume was 361,538 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.09% month - on - month to 26.70, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 5.14% month - on - month to 18.42GW. The weekly polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, down 0.74% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 13.12GW, down 2.45% month - on - month [4] - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.26 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan), N - type 210mm was 1.60 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.27 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan). The polysilicon production in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and the production in November in the southwest region was expected to decline [6] - The prices of battery cells and components remained relatively stable [6] Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both weakened, with large inventory pressure. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, resulting in large market fluctuations. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and the 12 - contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7]

烧碱山东江苏累库 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4492元/吨（-28）；华东基差-32元/吨（+8）;华南基差18元/吨（-2）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4460元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4510元/吨（-30）。 氯碱日报 | 2025-11-20 烧碱库存与开工：液碱工厂库存40.22万吨（-1.26）；片碱工厂库存3.02万吨（+0.12）；烧碱开工率84.10%（-0.70%）。 烧碱下游开工：氧化铝开工率85.37%（+0.12%）；印染华东开工率66.55%（-1.51%）；粘胶短纤开工率89.50%（-0.10%）。 市场分析 PVC： PVC单边震荡偏弱。供应端本周有1套装置计划检修，多数当前检修恢复，预计供应量回升，新投产能逐步量产： 渤化9月20日已满产；甘肃耀望与浙江嘉化试车后低负荷运行，随着近期新投产装置的增加，PVC供应端仍呈现充 裕格局。需求端下游开工下降，低价采购好转，但整体采购情绪一般。出口侧印度BIS认证取消，近期市场对反倾 销税取消预期增加，出口仍以价换量，出口签单环比走强；9月27日印度发起对PVC壁纸的反倾销调查。社会库存 小幅 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 市场成交清淡 铅价延续震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-19，LME铅现货升水为-28.21美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至17100 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/ 吨至17175元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至17100元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-100元/吨至17100元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-19，沪铅主力合约开于17225元/吨，收于17250元/吨，较前一交易日变化20元/吨，全天交易日 成交17225手，较前一交易日变化-8860手，全天交易日持仓17250手，手较前一交易日变化-5231手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17265元/吨，最低点达到17170元 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-20 需求提升有限，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11560元/吨，较前交易日变动+25.00元/吨，幅度+0.22%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.71元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤，现货基差 LH01+150，较前交易日变动+85；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.77元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.02元/公斤，现货基差LH01+210，较前交易日变动-5；四川地 区外三元生猪价格11.25元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH01-310，较前交易日变动-25。 据农业农村部监测，11月19日"农产品批发价格200指数"为125.44，比昨天上升0.03个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为127.55，比昨天上升0.04个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.92元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；牛肉66.70 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；羊肉62.38元/公斤，比昨天下降0.9%；鸡蛋7.31元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；白条鸡17.47 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%。 市场分析 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 市场情绪悲观，镍不锈钢保持弱势震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-11-19日沪镍主力合约2601开于115300元/吨，收于115650元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.29%，当日成交量为 82563（-34853）手，持仓量为85012（6815）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约换月至2601合约，整体走势有小幅反弹迹象，但主要是承接昨日大跌后的技术性反 抽。全天价格波动仅660元/吨，反映市场交投谨慎，观望情绪浓厚。宏观方面，随着美国政府停摆结束，相关数据 将在近期发布，可能会对12月降息产生影响，目前降息概率已不足50%。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场招标落地，镍矿价格维稳运行。菲律宾方面北部 Eramen1.4%镍矿招标落地 至42美元/湿吨，Benguet1.25%镍矿招标尚未有成交落地。下游镍铁价格承压，铁厂当前对原料镍矿采购多观望， 仍持压价心理。印尼方面，11月(二期)内贸基准价走跌0.12-0.2美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+26， 升水区间多在+25-26。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格119500元/吨，较 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [3][4] - Thermal Coal: Sideways with a Bullish Bias [5] Core Views - Steel has inventory pressure, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Iron ore supply pressure remains, and prices will likely oscillate at high levels. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to early release of warehouse receipt pressure. Thermal coal prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, influenced by the winter heating season and other factors [1][2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices fluctuated weakly, and spot transactions were generally dull, with low - price rigid demand as the main driver. National building materials transactions were 9.23 tons, a 4.14% decrease from the previous day. Building materials production and sales declined, inventory decreased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, inventory declined, and consumption increased [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials production decreased, inventory continued to decline, apparent consumption was weak, and the fundamentals continued to face pressure. The contradictions of high inventory and high production of strip materials have not been resolved. Short - term prices will continue to fluctuate, and subsequent winter storage games and raw material support need to be observed [1] - **Strategy**: Single - side trading: Sideways; Other strategies: None [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices maintained a sideways trend, spot prices rose slightly, and transactions improved. National main port iron ore cumulative transactions were 72.1 tons, an 18.98% increase from the previous day [2] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore supply remained at a high level, inventory continued to increase, and steel mills were losing money and reducing production. There was a seasonal weakening expectation for hot metal. However, considering the limited arrival volume of iron ore, the downward adjustment space for ore prices was insufficient, and they would likely maintain a range - bound operation. Subsequent hot metal production and downstream inventory changes need to be monitored [2] - **Strategy**: Single - side trading: Sideways; Other strategies: None [2] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices continued to fluctuate weakly. Imported Mongolian coal prices at ports declined due to the downward transmission of futures prices, and market trading volume continued to decline [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic production gradually recovered, Mongolian coal customs clearance was at a high level, and seaborne coal imports increased. Speculative demand decreased, and downstream maintained a rigid procurement rhythm. For coke, after four rounds of price increases, coking enterprise profits improved, but supply did not increase significantly. Although hot metal increased slightly, further steel mill production reduction plans need to be monitored. Currently, the coking coal trading focus is on the warehouse receipt value, and the market avoids subsequent warehouse receipt pressure through early price drops [3] - **Strategy**: Coking coal: Sideways; Coke: Sideways; Other strategies: None [3][4] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, coal prices rose slightly, and downstream procurement was acceptable, mostly on a demand - based basis. Supply was relatively stable, but some resources were difficult to ship, and miners were still optimistic. Port inspections were still strict, and some coal mines sold a small amount of goods as their tasks were almost completed. At ports, transactions were mainly long - term contracts, and downstream resistance to high - priced coal was high, with market coal transactions relatively cold. Due to gale - induced port closures, inventory slowly increased. Imported coal still had profit margins, and the market was active [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Current supply recovery in the producing areas was limited, and downstream procurement was more cautious. However, with the arrival of the winter heating season, port inventory accumulation was lower than expected, and non - power downstream demand was strong. Short - term prices will fluctuate strongly, and overall consumption and restocking need to be monitored [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is in an adjustment and oscillation state, and the soybean No.1 market has stable spot prices and an adjustment and oscillation in the futures market [1]. - The CBOT soybean futures market closed lower on November 19, 2025, mainly due to long - position closing pressure. Traders are closely watching whether China's purchasing spree will continue after the China - US trade truce agreement. The impact of China's soybean purchases has been mostly reflected in market prices, and factors such as farmer selling and investor profit - taking may have increased market pressure [1][3]. - The trend intensity of both soybean meal and soybean No.1 is 0, indicating a neutral state in the price fluctuation of the main - contract futures on the reporting day [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - DCE soybean No.1 2601 closed at 4145 yuan/ton during the day session, down 32 yuan (-0.77%), and 4128 yuan/ton at night, down 23 yuan (-0.55%) [1]. - DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3022 yuan/ton during the day session, down 35 yuan (-1.14%), and 3018 yuan/ton at night, down 13 yuan (-0.43%) [1]. - CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1135.25 cents per bushel, down 15.25 cents (-1.33%), and CBOT soybean meal 01 closed at 320.8 dollars per short - ton, down 7.3 dollars (-2.22%) [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) is 3000 - 3100 yuan/ton, with different basis levels for different months compared to futures contracts, showing various changes compared to the previous day [1]. - In East China, the spot price range is 2990 - 3010 yuan/ton, and the basis for different months also has corresponding changes [1]. - In South China, the spot price range is 3120 - 3130 yuan/ton, and the basis for different months has different changes compared to the previous day [1]. - **Main Industry Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 41.4 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared to 18.3 million tons two days ago [1]. - The inventory of soybean meal was 95.45 million tons per week on the previous trading day, compared to 96.31 million tons two weeks ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On November 19, 2025, the CBOT soybean futures market closed lower due to long - position closing pressure. Traders are concerned about the sustainability of China's purchasing spree after the China - US trade truce agreement. China bought 79.2 million tons of US soybeans on Tuesday and 33 million tons on Wednesday, but the impact of these purchases has been mostly reflected in prices. Farmer selling and investor profit - taking may have increased market pressure, and the market is considered slightly overbought [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 is 0, indicating a neutral state in the price fluctuation of the main - contract futures on the reporting day [3].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差略走强，远月基差抬升。贸易商商谈为主，个别主流供 应商出货，11月在01贴水70附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4590~4690附近。12月初在01贴水65~68有成交，12月下在01贴水52 附近有成交，个别偏低。今日主流现货基差在01-70。中性 5、主力持仓：净多 空翻多 偏多 6、预期：近期贸易商活跃度偏低，不过个别聚酯工厂递盘，现货基差略有走强，加工差仍处低位，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟 随成本端震荡为主，现货基差区间波动，关注装置变动情况。 2、 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - fiber market experiences amplified upstream fluctuations and is in a short - term volatile state. The bottle - chip market also has amplified upstream fluctuations, is in a short - term volatile state, and its processing fees are compressed [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: - Futures prices: Short - fiber 2512 was 6186 (up 52 from the previous day), short - fiber 2601 was 6234 (up 58), and short - fiber 2602 was 6244 (up 14). - Spread: PF12 - 01 was - 48 (down 6), PF01 - 02 was - 10 (up 44). - Other indicators: The short - fiber主力基差 was 109 (down 47), the short - fiber主力持仓量 was 327774 (up 100355), the short - fiber主力成交量 was 158815 (up 6766), the short - fiber华东现货价格 was 6295 (up 5), and the short - fiber产销率 was 65% (up 30%) [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: - Futures prices: Bottle - chip 2512 was 5758 (up 16), bottle - chip 2601 was 5746 (up 28), and bottle - chip 2602 was 5800 (up 30). - Spread: PR12 - 01 was 12 (down 12), PR01 - 02 was - 54 (down 2). - Other indicators: The PR主力基差 was - 1 (down 18), the bottle - chip主力持仓量 was 39632 (up 2367), the bottle - chip主力成交量 was 49877 (down 847), the bottle - chip华东现货价格 was 5745 (up 10), and the bottle - chip华南现货价格 was 5800 (up 20) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber futures fluctuated higher. Spot prices of Jiangsu and Zhejiang factories remained stable, while those in Fujian were lowered by 50. The mainstream quotation of semi - dull 1.4D was 6400 - 6500 for factory delivery or short - distance delivery. The discount of traders decreased, and downstream buyers were on the sidelines with reduced transactions. The mainstream negotiation price was in the range of 6150 - 6400. Factory sales improved moderately, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 65% by 3:00 pm [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: The upstream raw material futures rebounded slightly near noon. Polyester bottle - chip factories first lowered their quotes by 10 - 20 yuan and then raised them by 20 - 40 yuan in the afternoon. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market was fair, and there was a large price gap among different brands. Orders from November to January were mostly traded at 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton for factory delivery, with a small amount at 5620 - 5680 yuan/ton or 5840 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber was 0, and that of bottle - chip was 0, indicating a neutral state for both in terms of the daily - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the report day [2].