1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On January 5, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures price was driven by funds and sentiment, with the main contract 2605 opening at 125,000 yuan/ton and closing at 129,980 yuan/ton, a 7.74% change from the previous settlement price. The price increase was due to new long - term funds entering the market, the overall strength of the non - ferrous metals sector, and technical factors, although it didn't break through the 130,000 yuan/ton mark. The news about Ningde Times' lithium mine tailings affected the bulls but its authenticity needs verification. The inventory depletion speed continued to slow down, and the market showed a divergence between futures and spot prices. The current futures price is mainly dominated by funds and sentiment, with over - speculation [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 125,000 yuan/ton and closed at 129,980 yuan/ton, up 7.74% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 343,623 lots, and the open interest increased from 490,194 lots to 515,292 lots. The basis was - 4,360 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 20,281 lots [1]. - **Spot Market**: According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 117,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 115,000 - 119,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,568 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Driving Factors**: The price increase was driven by new long - term funds entering the market, the overall strength of the non - ferrous metals sector, and technical factors. The news about Ningde Times' lithium mine tailings affected the bulls but its authenticity needs verification [1]. Inventory and Production - **Inventory**: The total spot inventory was 109,605 tons, a decrease of 168 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory decreased by 184 tons to 17,667 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 894 tons to 38,998 tons, and other inventories increased by 910 tons to 52,940 tons. The de - stocking speed continued to slow down [2]. - **Production**: The weekly output reached 22,000 tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous week [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation, pay attention to consumption and inventory inflection points, and choose the opportunity to sell and hedge at high prices [3]. - **Options**: None [3] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: None [4] - **Cross - variety**: None [4] - **Futures - spot**: None [4]

燃料油日报 | 2026-01-06 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.18%，报2427元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌2.2%，报2891 元/吨。 元旦假期期间委内瑞拉局势升级，但对原油市场直接影响有限，油价维持弱势震荡态势，对FU、LU单边价格形成 压制。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前市场多空因素交织，整体驱动有限。其中，高硫燃料油裂解价差与贴水下跌后， 带动炼厂端需求边际改善，中国高硫燃料油进口量近期有所回升。如果委油断供问题持续，可能会导致国内地炼 增加燃料油采购需求。不过目前来看，高硫燃料油货源依然较为充裕，市场暂无紧缺预期。 低硫燃料油方面，由于装置检修状态的变动（阿祖尔和Dangote），科威特与尼日利亚地区供应存在回升预期。但 汽柴油溢价会通过RFCC装置对低硫油组分进行分流，市场压力暂有限。 高硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油端弱势延续，关注炼厂端需求潜在增量 市场分析 策略 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Report's Core View - The soybean market shows a game pattern of "bullish in producing areas and weak in selling areas", with policy support highlighting. The peanut market has a generally loose supply, but the actual trading activity is average due to the psychological reluctance of farmers and traders to sell [1][2][3] Market Analysis Soybean - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybeans 2605 contract was 4,243.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan/ton or 0.05% from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 97, up 38 or 32.14% from the previous day. The spot prices in different regions of Heilongjiang varied from 2.12 to 2.33 yuan/jin [1] - **Market Situation**: The soybean futures main contract rose and then fell. The prices in southern selling areas were stable. The price transmission was blocked due to the low acceptance of high - priced raw materials by downstream enterprises, resulting in light trading. The policy support was significant, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed [1][2] Peanut - **Futures**: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7,938.00 yuan/ton, down 54.00 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: The average peanut spot price was 8,036.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan/ton or 0.11% month - on - month. The spot basis was PK03 - 938.00, up 54.00 or - 5.44% month - on - month. The prices of different peanut varieties in various regions were stable [3] - **Market Situation**: The peanut futures main contract weakened. The overall peanut supply was loose, but the actual trading activity was average due to the reluctance of farmers and traders to sell. The downstream food enterprises mainly had rigid demand, and the demand from oil mills decreased [3][4] Strategy - The strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction, while the downside is limited by cost support and production - cut expectations [4] - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Short - term attention should be paid to new silicon wafer quotes and January production schedules, and long - term attention to the implementation of storage policies and inventory reduction progress [8] 3. Content Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On January 5, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated down. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,910 yuan/ton and closed at 8,860 yuan/ton, a change of (-15) yuan/ton or (-0.17)% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 203,994 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on January 4, 2026 was 10,231 lots, a change of 204 lots from the previous day [2] - Industrial silicon spot prices were basically stable. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on December 18 was 553,000 tons, a change of -1.43% from the previous week [2] - **Consumption End** - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton. Some northern silicon enterprises had production - cut plans, and the expected production of industrial silicon in January was to decrease month - on - month. The weekly output of silicone enterprises changed little, and silicone monomer enterprises had been reducing loads and production since early December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable, but the downstream demand of aluminum alloy was weakening marginally [3] - **Strategy** - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, with the upside and downside limited as described above [4] Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On January 5, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated up, opening at 57,660 yuan/ton and closing at 57,920 yuan/ton, a change of 1.03% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 76,368 lots (83,335 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 23,571 lots [5] - Polysilicon spot prices strengthened slightly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 30.60 (with a month - on - month change of 0.90%), the silicon wafer inventory was 23.19GW (a month - on - month change of 6.92%), the weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons (a month - on - month change of -5.10%), and the silicon wafer output was 10.18GW (a month - on - month change of -1.45%) [5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components of different types are provided, with some prices remaining stable and some showing small changes [5][6][7] - **Strategy** - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to oscillate in this range [8]

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-06 供需改善有限，制约反弹空间 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6449元/吨（-23），PP主力合约收盘价为6330元/吨（-18），LL华北现货为6400 元/吨（+100），LL华东现货为6480元/吨（+30），PP华东现货为6190元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为-49元/吨（+123）， LL华东基差为31元/吨（+103）， PP华东基差为-140元/吨（+48）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.2%（+0.6%），PP开工率为76.7%（-0.1%）。 策略 单边：LLDPE观望；PP观望；短期供需矛盾尚未改善但地缘局势升温或对成本端造成扰动，短期或延续震荡走势， 继续关注上游装置检修兑现情况。 跨期：无 跨品种：L05-PP05价差逢高做缩 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为64.5元/吨（+78.3），PP油制生产利润为-415.5元/吨（+78.3），PDH制PP生产利 润为-828.8元/吨（-35.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为99.3元/吨（-2.5），PP进口利润为-351.2元/吨（+7.4），PP出口利润为-22.4 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Views - The nickel market is experiencing a price rebound, but it's mainly due to the game between capital sentiment and policy expectations rather than a substantial improvement in the supply - demand structure. The stainless - steel market is caught in a game between strong cost expectations and weak real - world demand. Nickel is expected to remain strong, while stainless steel is expected to maintain a volatile trend [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 5, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 135,000 RMB/ton, closed at 134,100 RMB/ton, a 0.57% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 366,893 (-774,634) lots, and the open interest was 134,729 (1934) lots. The high - level oscillation of the contract reflects intensified market game between supply contraction expectations and the reality of the off - season demand. The current price rebound is a result of the game between capital sentiment and policy expectations [1] - The nickel ore market has a calm trading atmosphere, with limited resources and stable prices. In the Philippines, mines are waiting for the new round of northern mine tenders and have a bullish outlook. Rainfall has affected shipping efficiency. In Indonesia, the January (Phase I) 2026 domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.05 - 0.08 USD/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with a premium range of +25 - 26 [2] - Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 142,200 RMB/ton, up 1,100 RMB/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was okay. Jinchuan nickel was in short supply. The spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were stable or declined. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 38,424 (758) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,354 (72) tons [2] Strategy - The fundamentals show high inventories and oversupply, but with frequent positive policies from Indonesia and nickel having oscillated at the bottom for a long time, it's likely to attract the attention of profitable funds from precious metals and non - ferrous metals. It is expected to remain strong. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips for single - sided trading, while there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 5, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2602 opened at 13,150 RMB/ton and closed at 13,075 RMB/ton. The trading volume was 85,130 (-60,400) lots, and the open interest was 72,144 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a trend of rising first and then falling, oscillating downward, centered around the game between "strong cost expectations and weak real demand". Although it continued the pre - holiday optimistic trend at the opening, it was dragged down by the black - metal sector during the session [3] - The market activity increased, and spot quotes rose. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 13,250 (+175) RMB/ton, and in Foshan market, it was also 13,250 (+175) RMB/ton. The 304/2B premium was 195 - 395 RMB/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 5.00 RMB/nickel point to 927.5 RMB/nickel point [3] Strategy - With some macro - level positive factors realized and the inventory declining for four consecutive weeks, but the downstream demand being weak in the off - season, the stainless - steel price is expected to remain volatile, closely following the Shanghai nickel price trend. The short - term operation strategy is to wait and see. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high in the current volatile situation. The single - sided strategy is neutral, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5]

化工日报 | 2026-01-06 青岛港口库存继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15790元/吨，较前一日变动+185元/吨；NR主力合约12805元/吨，较前一日变动+180 元/吨；BR主力合约11645元/吨，较前一日变动+125元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15500元/吨，较前一日变动+250元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14850元/吨，较前 一日变动+150元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1890美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1830美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11500元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价11550元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量64.36万吨，环比增 加25.98%，同比增加14.69%，2025年1-11月累计进口数量587.16万吨，累计同比增加16.98%。 ANRPC最新发布的2025年11月报告预测，11月全球天胶产量料降2.6%至1 ...

1 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 一季度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，国内现货价格表现抗跌。巴西 | | 豆粕 | | 及阿根廷大豆地区降雨依然低于正常水平。1 月美农报告公布临近，市场预计单产 | | | 短线整理 | 会有下调，报告前受出口数据影响预计美豆偏弱震荡。综合南美天气及报告在即， | | ★ | | 国内豆粕追空看空需谨慎。关注美豆出口数据、1 月美农报告及南美天气情况。 | | | | 菜粕现货库存压力缓解，比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。加拿大总理中旬面临访 | | 菜粕 | 短线整理 | 华，削弱市场看多情绪。菜粕以跟随豆粕为主。关注 1 月美农报告、澳籽压榨和进 | | ★ | | | | | | 口政策、中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | 马棕榈油 | 12 月出口数据表现不佳，但产量进入减产，12 月库存预计仍会累库，棕 | | | 短线偏弱整理 | 榈油短线预计承压偏弱震荡。但由于减产季来临，以及印度斋月节备货需求，阶段 | | ★ | | 操作上仍可关注低位企稳看多机会。 | | | | 国内豆油库存环比 ...

市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-116元/吨（+7）。纯苯港口库存31.80万吨（+1.80万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费143美元/吨 （+10美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费136美元/吨（+11美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差162.8美元/吨（-2.0美元/吨）。华东 纯苯现货-M2价差-200元/吨（-5元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-365元/吨（+10），酚酮生产利润-876元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润845元/吨（-12）， 己二酸生产利润-661元/吨（+54）。己内酰胺开工率75.52%（+1.47%），苯酚开工率81.00%（+2.50%），苯胺开工率 59.81%（-3.17%），己二酸开工率68.20%（+4.60%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差121元/吨（+47元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润133元/吨（-6元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存132300吨（-6500吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存77300吨（-6000吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯 开工率70.2%（-0.5%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润59元/吨（+54元/吨），PS生产利润-24 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-06 现货升贴水坚挺 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-36.25美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化650元/吨至23970元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水105元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日630元/吨至23870元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水5元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日680元/吨至23890元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水35元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-05沪锌主力合约开于23435元/吨，收于23820元/吨，较前一交易日525元/吨，全天交易日成交 141147手，全天交易日持仓89942手，日内价格最高点达到23930元/吨，最低点达到23400元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-01-05，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.48万吨，较上期变化0.87万吨。截止2026-01-05，LME 锌库存为105850吨，较上一交易日变化-475吨。 市场分析 单边：谨慎偏多。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 节后第 ...