长江期货尿素&甲醇周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-05-19 4 重点关注：复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 01 尿素：上方压力显现 关注支撑位表现 02 甲醇：下游需求承接有限 高位回落 目 录 01 核心观点总结 尿素：上方压力显现 关注支撑位表现 01 1 市场变化：尿素价格延续震荡运行，盘面价格重心小幅下移，5月16日尿素2509合约收盘价1892元/吨，较上周收 盘基本持平。尿素现货价格坚挺，河南市场日均价1907元/吨，较上周上调23元/吨，山东市场日均价1946元/吨， 较上周上调76元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端尿素开工负荷率87.5%，较上周基本持平，其中气头企业开工负荷率75.74%，较上周上调 5.45个百分点，尿素日均产量19.92万吨。新疆新冀能源150万吨/年装置试车成功，日产1560吨小颗粒尿素和 1098吨大颗粒 ...

Report Overview - Report period: May 19 - 23, 2025 [1] - Report title: Weekly Report on Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures [2] Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - Industrial silicon futures prices maintain a weak trend due to poor supply - demand fundamentals, and it is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: Industrial silicon futures prices maintain a weak trend [7] - Trend logic: Affected by poor supply - demand fundamentals, prices continue to decline. Weak demand in the photovoltaic industry, cautious downstream procurement, low trading volume in the silicone market, and limited demand from aluminum alloy manufacturers [7] - Strategy recommendation: Wait and see due to the existing supply - demand contradiction in the industrial silicon market [8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Maintain a weak trend, recommend waiting and seeing [11] - This week's strategy: Maintain a weak trend, recommend waiting and seeing [11] 3.3 Related Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [13] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. The current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [17][21][23] Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - Lithium carbonate futures prices operate weakly in a volatile manner. There is a possibility of continuous decline, and radical investors can consider buying put options [28][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: Lithium carbonate futures prices operate weakly in a volatile manner [28] - Trend logic: The spot price of lithium carbonate fell last week. Some integrated production enterprises face cost inversion. Downstream enterprises mainly stock up for rigid needs and are highly watchful. The overall market has oversupply. However, recent Sino - US tariff adjustments may increase the export expectation of energy - storage batteries and long - term demand for lithium carbonate. Technically, the daily line of lithium carbonate futures is basically in a downward channel [29] - Strategy recommendation: Wait and see due to the pessimistic market sentiment and the possibility of continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices [29] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: There is a possibility of continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices. Radical investors can consider buying put options [33] - This week's strategy: There is a possibility of continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices. Radical investors can consider buying put options [34] 3.3 Related Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [36] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. The current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [39][44]

Group 1: Report Summary - The investment rating of the report is not provided [N/A] - The core view of the report is that both the soda ash and glass markets are facing challenges. The soda ash market is pressured by high inventory, weak demand, and potential new capacity. The glass market is also affected by low demand and high inventory, but may experience a technical rebound near the cost line. Investors are advised to closely monitor real - estate data and enterprise cold - repair dynamics [7] Group 2: Week - on - Week Summary Market Review - This week, the soda ash futures fell 1.23%, and the glass futures fell 2.8%. The soda ash futures were weak, and the glass futures continued their downward trend. The demand for soda ash from the photovoltaic glass industry slowed down, and the high inventory suppressed the price of soda ash. The glass market was pessimistic, and the bottom - cost support was difficult to maintain [7] Market Outlook - For soda ash, supply contraction is limited due to full production of some enterprises and potential new capacity. Demand is weak, and high inventory continues to suppress prices. The price is expected to continue to decline. For glass, supply may increase, demand is weak, and high inventory restricts price increases. There may be a technical rebound near the cost line [7] Strategy Recommendations - For the SA2509 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1250 - 1320, with stop - loss in the range of 1230 - 1360. For the FG2509 contract, trading in the range of 990 - 1080 is recommended, with stop - loss in the range of 960 - 1120 [7] Group 3: Futures and Spot Market Futures Price - This week, the soda ash futures price rose, and the glass futures price fell [9] Basis - The soda ash spot price rebounded, and the basis strengthened. As of May 16, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1340 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis was 51 yuan/ton. The glass spot price fell more than the futures price, and the basis weakened. As of May 16, 2025, the price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in Shahe was 1076 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton, and the basis was 70 yuan/ton [19][27] Spread - The soda ash - glass spread continued to strengthen, mainly due to the over - decline of glass. As of May 16, 2025, the glass - soda ash spread was 284 yuan/ton [29][31] Group 4: Industry Chain Analysis Production and Supply - The domestic soda ash operating rate and production decreased significantly this week. As of May 16, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 78.76%, down 8.57% week - on - week, and the national soda ash weekly output was 67.77 tons, down 6.3 tons week - on - week. The number of domestic glass production lines remained unchanged, but the daily output increased slightly. As of May 16, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 15.67 tons, up 0.16 tons week - on - week. The operating rate, capacity utilization, and daily melting volume of domestic photovoltaic glass remained flat [33][44][48] Profitability - The profit of domestic soda ash enterprises increased this week, while the profit of glass enterprises declined. As of May 16, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash by the dual - ton soda - making method was 287.50 yuan/ton, up 12.50 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda method was 65.40 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week. The profit of glass enterprises by different production methods all declined [39][42] Inventory - The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises decreased, while the inventory of glass enterprises increased. As of May 16, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 171.2 tons, up 1.13 tons week - on - week, and the inventory of glass enterprises was 6808.2 million weight boxes, up 52.2 million weight boxes week - on - week [54][56] Downstream Demand - The deep - processing orders of domestic glass increased compared with last week but were still at a historical low. As of May 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days [58][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel variety, due to the weakening support of refined nickel spot premium and the top - divergence phenomenon on the 60 - minute line, it is expected to have a short - term callback. In the short - term, it is recommended to suspend operations to avoid systemic risks, and in the medium - to - long - term, maintain the idea of selling hedges at high prices [2][3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, as the cost support of stainless - steel nickel - iron continues to weaken with the falling price of nickel - iron raw materials, it may continue the weak shock in the short term to seek strong support below. Similar to nickel, short - term operations are recommended to be suspended, and medium - to - long - term selling hedges at high prices are maintained [4][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 8, 2025, the main nickel contract 2506 opened at 123,880 yuan/ton and closed at 123,630 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.36% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 144,478 lots, and the open interest was 68,575 lots [1]. - The main contract 2506 showed a narrow - range shock throughout the day, with a small negative line on the daily chart. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest was almost flat. The red column area of the daily MACD did not expand significantly and was close to turning into a green column, indicating a short - term downward trend. There was a top - divergence phenomenon on the 60 - minute line near 126,400 before the May Day holiday. The spot market transaction of electrolytic nickel was sluggish, and attention should be paid to the short - term pressure level of 126,000 - 128,000 [2]. - The morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel in the spot market was reduced by 725 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands also decreased. Downstream customers had relatively sufficient pre - stockpiling, and the short - term purchasing willingness did not recover. The restocking willingness of merchants was also relatively insufficient. The overall spot transaction of refined nickel was average, and the premium increased slightly compared with the previous trading day, showing a slow downward trend recently. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 25 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 23,564 (- 145.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 198,312 (- 1,470) tons [2]. Strategy - It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is around 122,000. Short - term operations are recommended to be suspended to avoid systemic risks, and in the medium - to - long - term, maintain the idea of selling hedges at high prices. For single - side operations, focus on range trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 8, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2506 opened at 12,745 yuan/ton and closed at 12,705 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 123,851 lots, and the open interest was 70,897 lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract followed the nickel market in a shock trend, with a small positive line on the daily chart. The trading volume and open interest of the 06 contract decreased significantly compared with the previous trading day. The red column area of the daily MACD did not expand significantly, and short - term downward pressure remained. Attention should be paid to the pressure level near 13,100 [4]. - In the spot market, most merchants' quotations in the Foshan market in the morning were flat compared with the previous trading day. Although the opening guidance price of steel mills was raised, market transaction support was insufficient, and market confidence was still low. The weakening of the mid - day market led most spot merchants to offer discounts for sales. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation decreased slightly compared with the previous trading day, and the transaction price was mostly at 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will run weakly in the short term. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,050 yuan/ton, with a 304/2B premium of 340 - 540 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 3.50 yuan/nickel point to 948.5 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Due to the continuous decline of nickel - iron raw material prices, the cost support of stainless - steel nickel - iron continues to weaken. It may continue the weak shock in the short term to seek strong support below. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,500 - 12,600. Short - term operations are recommended to be suspended to avoid systemic risks, and in the medium - to - long - term, maintain the idea of selling hedges at high prices. The single - side operation is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-08 国新办政策超预期，不锈钢先扬后抑 镍品种 市场分析 2025-05-07日沪镍主力合约2506开于124430元/吨，收于124450元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.08%，当日成交量 为149603手，持仓量为68873手。 沪镍主力合约2506全天延续窄幅震荡，日线收十字阳线。06主力合约的成交量对比上个交易日有大幅度的增加， 持仓量有小幅度增加。从量能方面来看，日线MACD的红柱面积未见明显放大且接近转绿柱的边缘，短周期内的 下跌趋势开始，60分钟线在五一节前的126400附近出现顶背离现象，叠加近期电解镍现货市场成交低迷，关注上 方126000-128000短期一线压力位置。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日持平，市场主流品牌报价部分 小幅下调。下游客户前期备货相对充裕，短期内的采购意愿未见回升，商家的补库意愿也相对不足，精炼镍现货 成交整体表现一般，升贴水对比上个交易日有所下调，升贴水近期处于缓慢下行的态势。其中金川镍升水变化-100 元/吨至2150元/吨，进口镍升水变化25元/吨至125元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The report analyzes the reasons for the sharp decline of Shanghai Aluminum futures and provides technical analysis of multiple futures including stock index, gold, iron ore, glass, and caustic soda [3][7][11][15][18][23] Group 2: Reasons for the Sharp Decline of Shanghai Aluminum Futures - From the demand side, downstream demand is significantly weak. The procurement willingness of downstream processing enterprises remains low, and the demand growth of industries such as construction and automobile manufacturing for aluminum is slow. The consumption side shows no obvious signs of recovery. In Guangdong, although the supply of electrolytic aluminum remains tight, the demand side is dragged down by the decline in export orders, weakening the support for high prices [3] - In terms of supply, although the futures warehouse receipts continue to decline (recently about 149,000 tons), domestic production capacity is gradually being released, and the market supply is relatively sufficient, offsetting the benefits of inventory reduction [3] - Macroeconomically, international macro disturbances intensify. Weak domestic exports (from January to February, the export of wrought aluminum decreased by 11% year - on - year) suppress import demand, and the widening of the internal - external price difference intensifies the domestic selling pressure. The overall market sentiment is weak, and investors lack confidence in the aluminum price trend, which also promotes the price decline [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Different Futures Stock Index Futures - There are gaps in the market, and there are continuous policy benefits. In the short term, it is expected to continue the pattern of fluctuating upward [7] Gold Futures - In the short term, the risk - aversion sentiment recedes, and there are many profit - taking positions due to the large cumulative increase in the early stage, so it faces a technical correction. In the long - term, due to the damage to the US dollar credit, the upward logic remains unchanged. The external gold has risen sharply and is adjusting near the previous high, while Shanghai Gold is relatively weaker but remains in a strong oscillation pattern [11][12] Iron Ore Futures - In May, the reduction in downstream exports and the recovery of shipments lead to a large supply surplus pressure. At the same time, domestic demand is about to turn to the seasonal off - season. The weak reality increases the risk of high valuation of iron ore. Technically, it rose and then fell today, and short - selling at high levels is recommended [15] Glass Futures - The continuous release of demand still depends on the effect of real - estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Technically, it opened high and closed low today, and the short - term thinking of fluctuating downward remains unchanged. Currently, the daily melting is at a low level. Although the spot production and sales have improved, the factory inventory is still at a high level, and the replenishment motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong [18][19] Caustic Soda Futures - The market price is running at a low level, and there are no signs of improvement in downstream demand, especially the continuous production reduction in the alumina industry. However, manufacturers are highly motivated to ship. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term [23]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Since the beginning of the year, the alumina futures price has been continuously declining, hitting new lows and breaking key support levels, mainly due to a serious imbalance between supply and demand. The subsequent trend depends on the direction of ore prices and the scale of production cuts [3][4] - The stock index futures market is calm without major negative factors, and the short - term is expected to continue the volatile and bullish pattern [7] - After the holiday, the A - share market had a good start, with small - cap stocks led by the CSI 1000 performing well, rising more than 2% [8] - The medium - and long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. It is more likely to be in a strong volatile trend, but it faces a short - term technical correction [11][12] - In May, the iron ore market has a large supply surplus pressure due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and the weak reality increases the risk of high valuations. It is recommended to consider shorting at high levels [16] - The glass market needs the real estate stimulus effect or major policy to boost demand. The short - term is in a volatile and bearish trend [19] - The caustic soda market price is running at a low level, with no sign of improvement in downstream demand. It is expected to be weak in the short term [22] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina Futures - Supply: Multiple new domestic alumina production capacity projects have been put into operation, and overseas projects have also released capacity, increasing supply pressure [3] - Demand: The downstream electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable, and the demand for alumina has limited growth, unable to absorb the excess supply [3] - Cost: The shipment of Guinea bauxite has increased significantly, and the import price has continued to decline. The cost support for alumina has weakened [3] Stock Index Futures - Market situation: There are no major negative factors, and today's large gap - up positive line indicates a short - term volatile and bullish pattern [7] Gold - Long - term: The medium - and long - term upward logic remains unchanged [11] - Short - term: There is a technical correction due to the short - term ebb of risk - aversion sentiment and large accumulated gains [12] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: In May, downstream export reduction and shipment increase lead to a large supply surplus, and domestic demand is turning to the seasonal off - season [16] - Strategy: Consider shorting at high levels due to heavy upward pressure [16] Glass - Demand: Demand growth depends on real estate stimulus or major policies [19] - Market situation: The price hit a new low today, and the short - term is in a volatile and bearish trend [19] Caustic Soda - Market price: Running at a low level [22] - Demand: Downstream demand shows no sign of improvement, especially the continuous production cut in the alumina industry [22] - Outlook: Expected to be weak in the short term [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed mixed performance on April 30, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.83%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.1693 trillion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are facing supply - demand imbalances. Coke may face supply pressure, while the coking coal market remains in a loose supply pattern [1]. - The sugar market was affected by various factors during the holiday. The US economic situation and Brazilian sugar production influenced the price of US sugar, which first declined and then stabilized [1]. - The natural rubber market has a slightly positive demand outlook, with production expected to increase by 0.4% and demand by 1.5% in 2025 compared to 2024 [2]. - The soybean meal market may experience weak price fluctuations due to factors such as the increase in Brazilian soybean exports and the decline in the linkage between the domestic and US markets [3]. - The palm oil market in Malaysia is expected to see an increase in inventory in April 2025, with production and exports also increasing [4]. - The copper market has both positive and negative factors. Short - term prices may fluctuate, but the long - term upward trend remains [5]. - The iron ore market is in a state of seasonal supply increase, with short - term price fluctuations [6]. - The asphalt market is expected to show a fluctuating trend with increasing demand [8]. - The alumina market has an increasing supply due to new capacity and production resumption [9]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating price trend due to oversupply [10]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On April 30, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3279.03, down 0.23%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9899.82, up 0.51%; the ChiNext Index closed at 1948.03, up 0.83%. The trading volume was 1.1693 trillion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 3770.57, down 4.51 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On April 30, the coke weighted index closed at 1542.6 yuan, down 13.1; the coking coal weighted index closed at 929.2 yuan, down 1.7. Coke may face supply pressure due to increased production, while the coking coal market remains in a loose supply pattern [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - During the holiday, US sugar first declined and then stabilized. Brazilian sugar production in the first half of April was 73.1 tons, an increase of 1.25% year - on - year, higher than analysts' expectations. The 5 - month raw sugar contract delivery volume was about 1.48 million tons. The US economy showed signs of contraction [1]. Rubber - During the holiday, Southeast Asian rubber prices fluctuated slightly. OPEC +'s decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day since June affected the oil price, which in turn influenced the rubber market. The global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 0.4% and demand by 1.5% in 2025 compared to 2024 [2]. Soybean Meal - During the May Day holiday, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell. Brazilian soybean exports increased, and the domestic soybean meal market may be affected by the arrival of Brazilian soybeans and the weakening linkage with the US market [3]. Palm Oil - During the holiday, the Malaysian palm oil market showed changes. In April 2025, production is expected to increase by 16.9%, exports by 9.7%, and inventory by 14.8% compared to March [4]. Shanghai Copper - During the May Day holiday, the outer - market copper price fluctuated. Positive factors include decreasing domestic copper inventory and uncertain global copper supply. Negative factors include weak US consumer confidence and concerns about future demand [5]. Cotton - During the May Day holiday, the outer - market cotton price rose slightly. Domestic policies to stabilize the economy were introduced, and Xinjiang's cotton sowing was basically completed [5]. Iron Ore - Recently, iron ore shipments have increased seasonally, port inventory has accumulated, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. Asphalt - Recently, asphalt refinery operating rates have increased, and the planned production in May has increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Demand is expected to further improve, and short - term prices will fluctuate [8]. Logs - On April 30, the log futures showed certain price ranges. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Port inventory decreased, and overall demand was weak [8]. Steel - The rebar market has good fundamentals, with production growth restricted by profits and consumption remaining resilient. The hot - rolled coil market is affected by tariff policies, but the impact may be gradually mitigated [8]. Alumina - The total production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China has reached 109.22 million tons per year, and the operating capacity has increased by 3.48 million tons per year. New capacity and production resumption will increase supply [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - The macro - economic situation is complex, with the US tariff policy being uncertain. The supply side is stable, and the demand side shows regional differences [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has been declining. Due to oversupply and falling ore prices, the price is expected to remain weak and fluctuate in the short term [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to continue its regional trends this week, with overall narrow adjustments. The port market may see an oscillating trend, while the inland market may experience a slight decline. The price of MA2509 is expected to fluctuate between 2265 - 2315 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The domestic methanol market is expected to continue its regional trends this week, with overall narrow adjustments. The port market may face a weakening supply - demand situation due to the potential increase in imported goods, while the inland market may decline as downstream replenishment nears completion. The price of MA2509 is expected to oscillate between 2265 - 2315 [5]. 3.2 Multi - Short Focus - **Positive Factors**: Some plants are shut down or have maintenance plans; the expected import volume in March is low, and port inventories have decreased more than expected; olefin production is at a high level, and traditional downstream demand has entered the peak season; methanol factory inventories in production areas are tight; the central bank plans to cut reserve requirements and interest rates, which is beneficial to the commodity and financial markets [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have restart plans; the operating rate of refineries in northern Shandong is low; the weather in Iran has warmed, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of local plants; although methanol prices have risen significantly recently, it is difficult to pass on costs, and attention should be paid to negative feedback from downstream industries; upstream factories are actively selling goods due to high profits [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan/ton, with a basis of 142 for the 09 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of April 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 348,600 tons, a decrease of 101,600 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 74,400 tons to 198,300 tons [5]. - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of methanol futures was 2278 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton from the previous value. The number of registered warrants decreased by 172 to 6934, and the number of valid forecasts remained unchanged at 1222 [7]. - **Price Spread Structure**: The basis increased by 36 to 159; the import price spread increased by 32 to 50; the price spread between Jiangsu and other regions also changed to varying degrees [7]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average operating rate across the country decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions decreased, while the operating rate in East China remained unchanged [7]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, including those in Shaanxi, Qinghai, Ningxia, and other regions. The maintenance periods and losses vary by plant [58]. - **Foreign Plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting, while plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally. Some plants in the United States and Trinidad have low operating rates or are shut down [59].

金信期货日刊 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 3 0 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 豆油豆粕期价下跌，背后原因到底是什么? ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.从供应端来看，巴西大豆丰产，4月起月均到港量预计大幅增加，且随着进口巴西大豆陆续到厂， 市场预计五一节后油厂开工率将恢复正常 ，这使得豆油供应不断增加，而需求增长却较为缓慢，供 大于求的局面给价格带来下行压力。 2.在需求层面，全球经济增长放缓，消费者购买力下降，餐饮业复苏缓慢，导致食用油整体需求减弱。 同时，棕榈油价格低位，豆棕价差倒挂，替代品竞争抑制了豆油的市场需求。 3.政策因素也不容忽视，美国生物柴油政策存在不确定性，影响了豆油在工业领域的需求预期。市场 担忧政策变化导致豆油需求减少，进而引发价格下跌。多种因素交织，最终造成了4月29日豆油期货 价格的暴跌。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权 ...