Group 1 - The survey conducted by Reuters among 105 economists reveals a strong consensus on the timing and frequency of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with many predicting at least two cuts within the year [3][5] - Economists express concerns over the current state of the U.S. economy, highlighting challenges such as fluctuating inflation pressures, a weakening labor market, and increased uncertainty in the global trade environment [3][4] - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to alleviate pressures on corporate financing and consumer credit, thereby stimulating economic activity and supporting recovery [3][5] Group 2 - Economists forecast a modest growth of 1.4% for the U.S. economy in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, indicating a cautious optimism despite various limiting factors [4] - The U.S. economy faces structural adjustments, with traditional manufacturing competitiveness declining and emerging industries not yet providing a robust growth engine [4] - The potential for government economic stimulus policies, along with strong technological innovation and a large domestic consumer market, may provide support for economic growth [4][5] Group 3 - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments and U.S. economic growth expectations is closely linked, with timely rate cuts expected to enhance market liquidity and boost investment and consumption [5] - Failure to adjust monetary policy in line with market expectations could lead to increased downward pressure on U.S. economic growth [5] - Changes in the Federal Reserve's policy will also have significant implications for global financial markets, affecting dollar liquidity, exchange rate fluctuations, and capital flows [5]

美国劳工统计局发布的2025年5月消费者物价指数（CPI）报告，再次描绘了一幅通胀缓慢但非线性的 下降图景。 整体CPI"同比上涨2.4%"，核心CPI"同比上涨2.8%"，两者均略低于市场普遍预期，这无疑为市场带来 了一丝宽慰。 然而，深入数据细节，我们看到通胀回归美联储"2%"目标的道路依然充满挑战，主要压力点并未根本 性改变。 报告中最令人瞩目的数字或许是核心CPI同比增速连续第二个月维持在"2.8%"，且低于预期。这似乎印 证了通胀正在逐步降温的叙事。 整体CPI的小幅上升（从4月的"2.3%"到5月的"2.4%"）主要是由于基数效应或特定分项的月度波动。 其环比增速（"0.2% 未经季节性调整"，"0.1% 经季节性调整"）实际上较4月有所放缓，这是一个更积极 的信号。 核心CPI的环比增速也同样放缓至"0.1%（经季节性调整）"，这是自去年以来较低的月度增幅之一。 这些月度数据的放缓，为持续的通缩势头提供了证据。 然而，通胀的"粘性"依然体现在核心服务领域。核心服务（不含能源）"同比上涨3.6%"，与4月份持 平。 虽然服务业通胀同比增速第三次降至"4.0%"以下是一个积极的里程碑，表明最严峻的服 ...

年率、月率双双低于预期，通胀压力有，但不多……5月CPI能为美联储卸下思想包袱吗？一图读懂美 国2025年5月CPI报告 相关链接 财料 ...

前言：富格林凭借亚洲500强名企唯一金企行业代表的出众实力，诚信立足市场15年中，为无数用户稳 定提供精准盈利操作策略及可信出金服务，冻结黑幕困扰的效果显著。金价周二冲高回落，因为俄乌冲 突持续不断，世界银行也下调全球经济增速预期，金价周二盘中一度涨至3349.01美元/盎司，但随后回 吐涨幅。投资者如有遭受出金冻结黑幕疑虑，应尽快联系富格林专家团队，在线提供优质可信操作建 议，独到行情分析显著高效提升获利效率。 富格林凭借亚洲500强名企唯一金企行业代表的出众实力，诚信立足市场15年中，为无数用户稳定提供 精准盈利操作策略及可信出金服务，冻结黑幕困扰的效果显著。因交易员密切关注中美贸易谈判，其结 果可能缓解贸易紧张局势并提振全球经济，从而减少对避险资产的需求，而美股持续上涨也打压黄金的 避险买需。投资者如有遭受出金冻结黑幕疑虑，应尽快联系富格林专家团队，在线提供优质可信操作建 议，独到行情分析显著高效提升获利效率。 富格林据讯，周二现货黄金盘中一度逼近3300美元关口，随后持续拉升，最高触及3349.1美元/盎司， 美盘回吐日内全部涨幅，最终收跌0.09%，收报3322.6美元/盎司。 地缘事件方面，俄乌冲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous occurrence of the $39 billion 10-year U.S. Treasury auction and the critical Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to create significant market volatility, breaking the recent calm in the U.S. Treasury market [1][4][6] Group 1: CPI Data Impact - The upcoming CPI report for May is a key indicator of U.S. inflation, directly influencing consumer living costs, business production costs, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [3][5] - If the CPI data exceeds market expectations, it may lead to increased inflation pressure, raising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, which could result in falling bond prices and rising yields [5] - Conversely, if the CPI data is below expectations, it may ease inflation pressure, enhancing the appeal of U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset, leading to rising bond prices and falling yields [5] Group 2: Treasury Auction Dynamics - The outcome of the 10-year Treasury auction will reflect market demand for U.S. Treasuries, influencing yields and the overall bond market [3][4] - A strong auction demand, indicated by a high bid-to-cover ratio, would suggest high market confidence in U.S. Treasuries, potentially stabilizing yields [5] - Conversely, weak auction results, such as a low bid-to-cover ratio or even a failed auction, could lead to a significant rise in yields and spread panic in the market [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The combination of the CPI report and the Treasury auction is likely to signal the end of the recent period of calm in the U.S. Treasury market, prompting investors and financial institutions to reassess their strategies [4][6] - Global investors, financial institutions, and policymakers need to closely monitor these events, as they will influence future market dynamics and economic policies [6]

文字早评 2025/06/11 星期三 宏观金融类 3、MSCI 中国指数上涨，较 4 月低点涨幅扩大至 20%。 资金面：融资额+74.47 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率-1.60bp 至 1.362%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-1.03bp 至 2.9606%，十年期国债利率+0.11bp 至 1.6554%，信用利差-1.14bp 至 131bp；美国 10 年期利率-2bp 至 4.49%，中美利差+2.11bp 至-283bp。 期指基差比例：IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.63%/-1.59%/-2.37%/-3.11%；IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季： -0.69%/-1.90%/-3.87%/-6.04%；IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.78%/-2.30%/-4.97%/-7.81%；IH 当月/ 下月/当季/隔季：-0.61%/-1.77%/-1.99%/-1.95%。 交易逻辑：4 月政治局会议提到"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策"、"持续稳定和活跃资本市 场"。特朗普关税政策扰动之后，国内出台一系列政策措施稳定经济和股市，股市风险偏好已经逐步修 复。建议 ...

贵金属日报 2025-06-11 贵金属 钟俊轩 沪金涨 0.23 %，报 774.96 元/克，沪银跌 0.43 %，报 8889.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.18 %， 报 3337.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.05 %，报 36.63 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.47%，美元指数报 98.96 ； 市场展望： 美国财政方面，对于特朗普的财政法案，参议院计划在本周公布修改后的医疗保健条款，共和 党人急于在 7 月 4 日之前完成立法。法案一旦最终通过，债务上限问题将得到解决，宽财政的 背景下美债发行压力将会显著扩大，当前联储政策利率仍维持在高位，降息对于美债利息支出 的控制具备最为重要的影响作用。综合经济数据走向以及美债的发行路径，美联储在下半年进 一步调降利率是具备确定性的。 法案宽财政的预期在 4 月份以来已完全体现在黄金价格中，当前美国参议院预算委员会主席表 示，为应对特朗普减税法案所面临的削减赤字需求，他给出了单独通过另一项减税和削减开支 法案的方案，这意味着美国财政赤字的扩张预期在 7 月 4 日之前将会有所缓和。对于在高位的 黄金价格形成边际利空因素 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar fell against most major currencies due to cautious sentiment ahead of key US-China trade negotiations, despite optimism from a better-than-expected US employment report [2] - China is facing deflation and trade uncertainties, which are dampening sentiment among US businesses and consumers, prompting investors to reassess the dollar's safe-haven status [2] - In May, China's exports to the US plummeted by 34.5% year-on-year, marking the largest decline since the COVID-19 pandemic began in February 2020 [3] Group 2 - The Japanese yen fell approximately 0.3% to 144.43 against the dollar, as Japan considers repurchasing some long-term government bonds to control rising yields [4] - The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively, as markets reacted to the European Central Bank's monetary policy outlook [6] - The upcoming US inflation report for May is expected to be a focal point for investors and Federal Reserve policymakers, as they seek evidence of the economic impact of trade restrictions [8] Group 3 - Federal Reserve officials have indicated they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates, with signs of economic resilience potentially reinforcing their stance [9] - Market expectations suggest that the central bank may lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points, with the earliest action anticipated in October [9] - Analysts note that May marks the first month where the impact of the 10% tariffs on imports outside the USMCA is expected to be evident, requiring several months of inflation data to assess the tariffs' effects [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged, and the May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations, indicating the continuous impact on demand and inflation. Despite weak economic data, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the Fed is expected to keep the benchmark overnight rate unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies remain stable, and short - term policies may focus on existing measures. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic and fluctuate in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged. The May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations. The April trade deficit was lower than expected, mainly due to demand front - loading and a sharp increase in Sino - US tariffs. Factory orders declined more than expected. The June "Beige Book" showed a slight decline in economic activity, and the economic outlook was described as "slightly pessimistic and uncertain". However, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the Fed is expected to keep the benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic: Current policies remain stable, and short - term policies may focus on existing measures. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic and fluctuate in the short - term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal policies will implement established measures [7]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Micro - cap risks have not been released, and the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks should be noted. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Stock index options: The market is stable, and cautious covered strategies are recommended. Pay attention to option market liquidity. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The short - end may be relatively strong. Pay attention to changes in the capital market and policy expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The progress of Sino - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short - term. Pay attention to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Pay attention to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Pay attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: The fundamental contradictions are limited, and the price is mainly driven by costs. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Iron ore: The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is boosted by the macro - environment. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Coke: Molten iron production continued to decline, demand was weak, and the third round of price cuts was inevitable. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Coking coal: Supply was slightly disrupted and contracted, and the supply - demand improvement was not obvious. Pay attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price fluctuated at a high level. Pay attention to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [7]. - Alumina: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the alumina price fluctuated at a high level. Pay attention to unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Aluminum: The trade tension has eased, and the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. Pay attention to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Zinc: Zinc ingot inventory continued to decline, and the zinc price rebounded slightly. Pay attention to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Lead: There is still cost support, and the lead price fluctuated. Pay attention to supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Nickel: The supply - demand situation is generally weak, and the nickel price fluctuated widely in the short - term. Pay attention to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price rebounded slightly, and the price fluctuated. Pay attention to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Tin: The inventory in both markets continued to decline, and the tin price fluctuated. Pay attention to the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Industrial silicon: The flood season is approaching, and the silicon price is still under pressure. Pay attention to unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Lithium carbonate: The warehouse receipts decreased slightly, and the lithium price rose with reduced positions. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure continues, and pay attention to macro and geopolitical disturbances. Pay attention to OPEC+ production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - LPG: Demand remains weak, and the rebound space of PG may be limited. Pay attention to the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Asphalt: Profits continue to expand, and the downward pressure on the asphalt futures price increases. Pay attention to unexpected demand. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: As the crude oil price rises, the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil declines. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates with the crude oil price. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - Methanol: The coal price stabilizes, the port basis strengthens, and methanol fluctuates. Pay attention to the macro - energy situation and upstream and downstream device dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Urea: The futures price is weak, and wait for the callback opportunity after agricultural demand is released. Pay attention to market trading volume, policy trends, and demand realization. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - Ethylene glycol: Terminal demand is less than expected, and inventory reduction through maintenance is reflected in the monthly spread. Pay attention to ethylene glycol terminal demand. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [9]. - PX: Polyester production cuts disrupted the market, and the PX price declined. Pay attention to crude oil price fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - PTA: Polyester production cuts disrupted the market, and the PTA price declined. Pay attention to polyester production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Short - fiber: Textile and clothing demand is less than expected, and the processing fee of short - fiber is compressed at a high - level of production. Pay attention to terminal textile and clothing exports. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [9]. - Bottle chips: Production was at a high level, supply was in surplus, and low processing fees will continue. Pay attention to future bottle - chip production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - PP: The oil price rebounded, and pay attention to maintenance changes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Plastic: The raw material end provides support, but maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Styrene: The real - world situation is still poor, and the styrene price fluctuates weakly. Pay attention to the oil price, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - PVC: Short - term sentiment improved, and PVC rebounded weakly. Pay attention to expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Caustic soda: The spot price reached the peak and declined, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. Pay attention to market sentiment, production, and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Oils and fats: The Sino - US trade negotiations boosted market sentiment, and there is a demand for soybean and palm oil to rebound. Pay attention to South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Protein meal: The spot price declined, the basis weakened, and the technical rebound of the futures price is expected to be limited. Pay attention to US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, the macro - environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. 3.3 Agriculture - Corn/Starch: The spot market is stable, and the futures price continues to rise. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, the macro - environment, and weather. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Live pigs: Supply and demand are loose, and the pig price fluctuates at a low level. Pay attention to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - Rubber: There are no new variables, and the futures price stabilizes. Pay attention to production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Synthetic rubber: The futures price stabilizes temporarily. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Pulp: There is no major driving force for pulp, and it mainly fluctuates. Pay attention to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Cotton: The fundamentals have not changed much, and the macro - environment releases positive signals to boost the futures price. Pay attention to demand and production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Sugar: The sugar price fluctuates and consolidates, and pay attention to the 5700 support level. Pay attention to abnormal weather. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Logs: The delivery game is intense, and the futures price fluctuates more. Pay attention to shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9].

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market is mixed, with gold expected to experience a correction while silver shows potential for strength due to recent commodity rebounds and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - The expectation of a marginally accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve is likely to support silver prices, with recommendations to maintain a bullish strategy in precious metals [1][2] - Technical indicators suggest that gold may face short-term corrections but still holds potential for upward movement, with support levels identified around $3300 to $3280 [3] Group 2 - The ongoing trade discussions between the U.S. and China have eased pessimism regarding the trade war, although uncertainty remains high in the macroeconomic environment [2] - Recent strong U.S. employment data has led to increased market speculation about a stronger dollar, which may negatively impact gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3] - The gold-silver ratio has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential for silver to catch up after a period of divergence from gold prices [2]