Group 1 - The Central Bank of Egypt has significantly cut interest rates by 200 basis points, marking the third rate cut this year, following reductions of 225 and 100 basis points in April and May respectively [1][3] - The overnight deposit rate is now 22.00%, down from 24.00%, and the overnight lending rate is reduced to 23.00% from 25.00% [3] - The Central Bank attributes the rate cut to falling inflation and improving employment conditions, creating space for a gradual easing of monetary policy [1][3] Group 2 - The Egyptian economy is showing signs of recovery, with a real GDP growth rate of 5.4% in Q2 2025, compared to just 2.4% in the previous fiscal year [4] - Inflation has also decreased, with the Q2 inflation rate dropping to 15.2% from 16.5% in the previous quarter, and negative monthly growth rates in July for both overall and core inflation [4] - The Central Bank forecasts an average inflation rate of 14% to 15% for the entire year of 2025, indicating a positive outlook for inflation trends [3][4] Group 3 - The non-oil manufacturing sector grew by 16.03% in Q2, contributing 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth, while the tourism sector saw a 23% increase [7] - Exports have performed exceptionally well, with a 54.4% year-on-year increase in goods and services exports in Q2, significantly outpacing the 18.7% growth in imports [7] - The garment export sector demonstrated strong resilience with a year-on-year growth of 23.7%, highlighting the sector's responsiveness to global demand [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Egypt has lowered its key policy interest rate by 200 basis points, marking the third rate cut since April 2025, aimed at anchoring inflation expectations and supporting economic growth [1][2]. Economic Growth - The Central Bank forecasts a real GDP growth of 5.4% for Q2 2025, up from previous expectations, with an average growth rate of 4.5% for the fiscal year 2024/2025, compared to just 2.4% for 2023/2024 [1][2]. - The unemployment rate decreased from 6.3% in Q1 2025 to 6.1% in Q2 2025, indicating improvements in the job market [1]. Inflation Data - The inflation rate for Q2 2025 has dropped to 15.2% from 16.5% in the previous quarter, with monthly deflation observed in July 2025 [2]. - The Central Bank predicts an average inflation rate of 14% to 15% for the entire year of 2025, suggesting a downward trend in inflation expectations [2]. Monetary Policy - The Central Bank's monetary policy committee will reassess the pace and extent of monetary easing based on inflation forecasts and economic data at each meeting [2]. - The target average inflation rates are set at 7% for Q4 2026 and 5% for Q4 2028, indicating a long-term strategy for inflation control [2]. Recent Rate Cuts - The Central Bank has previously cut rates by 225 basis points in April 2025 and 100 basis points in May 2025, marking a shift to a more accommodative monetary policy following a period of tightening [4][5]. - The tightening cycle began in March 2022, with rates raised from 8.25% to 27.25% to combat rising inflation and currency depreciation [4].

Group 1: Egypt Central Bank Rate Cut - The Central Bank of Egypt announced a 200 basis points cut in key policy rates, reducing overnight deposit and loan rates to 22% and 23% respectively, marking the third rate cut of the year [1][2] - The decision reflects the Central Bank's assessment of inflation dynamics and economic growth, with a focus on stabilizing inflation expectations [2][4] - The Central Bank's forecast for economic growth in Q2 2025 is 5.4%, driven by non-oil manufacturing and tourism, with an average growth rate of 4.5% for the fiscal year 2024/2025 [3] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook in Egypt - The annual inflation rate in Egypt decreased from 14.9% in June to 13.9% in July 2025, indicating a downward trend in inflation expectations [3] - The Central Bank predicts an average inflation rate of 14% to 15% for the year 2025, with a target to achieve a 7% inflation rate by Q4 2026 [4] - The unemployment rate is projected to decline from 6.3% in Q1 to 6.1% in Q2 2025, suggesting improvements in the labor market [3] Group 3: Philippines Central Bank Rate Cut - The Central Bank of the Philippines lowered its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.0%, marking the third consecutive rate cut this year [5][6] - The overnight deposit and loan rates were also reduced to 4.50% and 5.50% respectively, with a total reduction of 150 basis points since last year [5] - The Central Bank maintains a stable inflation outlook, with a forecasted inflation rate of 1.7% for 2025, slightly up from the previous estimate of 1.6% [5][6] Group 4: Economic Challenges in the Philippines - Potential adjustments in electricity prices and changes in rice tariff policies may increase inflationary pressures in the Philippines [6] - The Central Bank remains optimistic about the economic stimulus effects of the rate cuts, indicating the possibility of further rate reductions within the year [6]

Core Viewpoint - Both Egypt and the Philippines central banks announced interest rate cuts on the same day, reflecting a trend of monetary easing in response to economic conditions and inflation expectations [1][6]. Group 1: Egypt Central Bank Actions - The Central Bank of Egypt cut its key policy rate by 200 basis points, bringing the overnight deposit and loan rates down to 22% and 23%, respectively [3][5]. - This marks the third rate cut in 2023, following reductions of 225 basis points in April and 100 basis points in May [3][4]. - The bank's decision is based on a reassessment of inflation dynamics and economic growth prospects, with a forecasted economic growth rate of 5.4% for Q2 2025, up from previous expectations [4][5]. - The annual inflation rate in Egypt decreased from 14.9% in June to 13.9% in July, indicating a downward trend in inflation expectations [4][5]. Group 2: Philippines Central Bank Actions - The Central Bank of the Philippines lowered its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.0%, marking the third consecutive cut this year [7][8]. - The overnight deposit and loan rates were adjusted to 4.50% and 5.50%, respectively, with a total reduction of 150 basis points since last year [7][8]. - The central bank maintains a stable inflation outlook, with projected inflation rates of 1.7% for 2025, while acknowledging potential upward pressures from electricity price adjustments and changes in rice tariff policies [8]. - Despite external risks, the central bank remains optimistic about the economic stimulus effects of the rate cuts and does not rule out further reductions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Egypt has significantly cut interest rates by 200 basis points, marking the third rate cut of the year, driven by declining inflation and improving employment conditions [1][3]. Monetary Policy - The overnight deposit rate has been reduced from 24.00% to 22.00%, and the overnight lending rate from 25.00% to 23.00% [3]. - The Central Bank aims to anchor inflation expectations and maintain a downward trajectory of inflation through this rate cut [3]. - The unemployment rate decreased from 6.3% in Q1 2025 to 6.1% in Q2 2025, indicating a positive trend in the job market [3]. Inflation Outlook - The Central Bank forecasts that the average inflation rate for 2025 will be between 14% and 15%, with a target of 7% by Q4 2026 and 5% by Q4 2028 [3][5]. - Despite the positive outlook, inflation remains above the target level, indicating ongoing challenges [5]. Economic Growth - Egypt's economy is showing signs of recovery, with a real GDP growth rate of 5.4% in Q2 2025, compared to 2.4% in the previous fiscal year [4]. - The non-oil manufacturing sector grew by 16.03%, contributing 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth [7]. - The tourism sector, particularly restaurants and hotels, experienced a growth of 23% [7]. - Exports of goods and services surged by 54.4% in Q2, significantly outpacing the 18.7% increase in imports, contributing approximately 2.7 percentage points to GDP growth [7]. Sectoral Performance - The communication and information technology sector grew by 14.7% [7]. - However, the Suez Canal's transport volume has decreased due to geopolitical tensions, leading to a 23.1% decline in related revenues [7]. - The oil and gas sector is facing challenges but is expected to recover with new development projects [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Egypt has significantly cut interest rates by 200 basis points, marking the third rate cut of the year, driven by declining inflation and improving employment conditions [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The overnight deposit rate has been reduced from 24.00% to 22.00%, and the overnight lending rate from 25.00% to 23.00% [2]. - The Central Bank aims to anchor inflation expectations and maintain a downward trajectory of inflation through this rate cut [2]. - The unemployment rate decreased from 6.3% in Q1 2025 to 6.1% in Q2 2025, indicating a positive trend in the job market [2]. - The Central Bank forecasts an average inflation rate of 14% to 15% for the entire year of 2025, with a target of 7% by Q4 2026 and 5% by Q4 2028 [2][4]. Economic Performance - Egypt's economy is showing signs of recovery, with a real GDP growth rate of 5.4% in Q2 2025, compared to just 2.4% in the previous fiscal year [3]. - Inflation has decreased from 16.5% in the previous quarter to 15.2% in Q2 2025, with negative monthly growth rates in July 2025 for both overall and core inflation [3]. - The non-oil manufacturing sector grew by 16.03% in Q2, contributing 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth, while the tourism sector saw a 23% increase [5]. - Exports of goods and services surged by 54.4% in Q2, significantly outpacing the 18.7% increase in imports, contributing approximately 2.7 percentage points to real GDP growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Egypt has significantly cut interest rates by 200 basis points, marking the third rate cut in 2025, driven by declining inflation and improving employment conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The overnight deposit rate has been reduced from 24.00% to 22.00%, and the overnight lending rate from 25.00% to 23.00% [3]. - The Central Bank aims to anchor inflation expectations and maintain a conducive monetary policy stance, despite ongoing inflation risks [3][5]. - The Central Bank's inflation target is set at 7%, indicating that current inflation levels are still above this target [5]. Group 2: Economic Performance - Egypt's economy is showing signs of recovery, with a real GDP growth rate of 5.4% in Q2 2025, compared to just 2.4% in the previous fiscal year [4][8]. - The non-oil manufacturing sector grew by 16.03% in Q2, contributing 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth, while the tourism sector saw a 23% increase [8]. - Exports of goods and services surged by 54.4% in Q2, significantly outpacing the 18.7% increase in imports, contributing approximately 2.7 percentage points to GDP [8].

【导读】埃及央行将关键政策利率下调200个基点 中国基金报记者 张舟 大家好！来一起关注海外市场降息情况。 当地时间8月28日，埃及央行将关键政策利率下调200个基点 ，隔夜存款利率从24.00%下调 至22.00%，隔夜贷款利率从25.00%下调至23.00%。 这是继2025年4月和5月分别降息225个基点和100个基点后的第三次降息。 | 28 Aug 2025 | MPC decides to cut key policy rates by 200 basis points 1 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Key Statistics | | | | | View all indicators | | OVERNIGHT DEPOSIT RATE | OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE | CONIA | CORE INFLATION RATE | HEADLINE INFLATION RATE | MAIN OPERATION | | | | 24.402% | | | 22.50% | | 22.00% | 23.0 ...

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Egypt lowered the key policy rate by 200 basis points, with overnight deposit and loan rates adjusted to 22.00% and 23.00% respectively, marking the third rate cut since April 2025 [1] - The Central Bank's monetary policy committee believes that this rate cut aligns with the goal of maintaining an appropriate monetary policy stance, helping to anchor inflation expectations and continue the downward trend in inflation [1] - The Egyptian economy is projected to grow at a rate of 5.4% in Q2 2025, up from previous expectations, with an average growth rate of 4.5% for the fiscal year 2024/2025, compared to just 2.4% for 2023/2024 [1] Group 2 - Inflation rates in Q2 2025 decreased to 15.2% from 16.5% in the previous quarter, with monthly data showing negative growth in overall and core inflation [2] - The Central Bank forecasts an average inflation rate of 14% to 15% for the entire year of 2025, creating room for gradual monetary policy easing [2] - The monetary policy committee will reassess the pace and extent of monetary easing at each meeting based on inflation forecasts and economic data, aiming for an average inflation target of 7% by Q4 2026 and 5% by Q4 2028 [2] Group 3 - The Central Bank of Egypt has previously cut rates twice this year, with a significant reduction of 225 basis points in April and another cut of 100 basis points in May, indicating a shift to a loosening monetary policy cycle [3] - The economic rebound driven by non-oil manufacturing, wholesale retail, and tourism has allowed for these rate cuts, with the lowest inflation rates recorded in three years [3] - The Central Bank had previously engaged in a tightening cycle starting in March 2022, raising the overnight deposit rate from 8.25% to 27.25% before initiating the current easing phase [3] Group 4 - The Central Bank of Egypt's decision to lower interest rates aligns with a global trend of central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle, particularly in light of significant declines in inflation rates during Q1 of this year [4]

8月28日，国内贵金属期货全线飘红，截止目前，沪金主力报价为783.12元/克，涨幅0.20%，沪银主力 报价为9375.00元/千克，涨幅0.54%；国际贵金属期涨跌不一，COMEX黄金报价3449.80元/盎司，跌幅 0.06%，COMEX白银报价39.48美元/盎司，涨幅0.71%。 英伟达财报未公布前，美股处于高度紧张的观望状态，基准股指盘中冲高后遭遇抛售，纳指一度翻绿， 随后买盘涌入转涨但收盘前卖压再现。三大股指均收涨，标普收创新高。盘后英伟达财报显示数据中心 收入逊色，本季指引不够亮眼，股价盘后一度下挫5%。市场避险情绪升温，一定程度上支撑黄金走 势。 【盘面分析】 8月27日，COMEX黄金盘中先跌后涨，报收3451.8美元/盎司，涨幅0.55%。国内SHFE金夜盘震荡上 行，报收784.16元/克，涨幅0.33%。后续来看，今日晚间美国将发布2季度GDP数据，关注实际数据与 预期值的差异，若大幅低于预期，金价或在避险情绪支撑下进一步反弹。 【消息面】 特朗普于当地时间周二表示，他已准备好与美联储理事库克展开法律斗争；他已经考虑了一些"非常好 的人"来接替库克的位置；很快将在美联储理事会中拥有" ...