| | | | | | | | | 白金 主要 主要 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/04 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | Z0022680 F03117750 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2609 | JM2609 | 6000 | | 400 | | | (元/吨) ...

以"反内卷"促"企业合理利润率" 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月03日 2026年02月04日 目录 01 本轮内卷式竞争的起源与表现 02 本轮内卷式竞争的宏微观影响 03 企业合理利润率—宏观增长的微观动因 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 导言 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 证券分析师：董德志 02160933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø "内卷式"竞争的起源及表现 • 新范式下，需求偏弱与同质化扩张让存量市场竞争加速，企业内卷成为典型症候 Ø "内卷式"竞争的宏微观影响 • 一方面直接压低价格、挤压企业利润率，另一方面间接抑制消费与创新 Ø "内卷式"竞争如何破解？ • 短期来看，仍需依靠行政协调破除地方保护与行业壁垒， "反内卷"还要继续 • 长期来看，更应抓住"宏观问题"背后的"微观动因" ，以企业合理利润率为政策锚，助推政府、企业、居民、 资本市场进入良性循环，搭建宏微观桥梁 Ø 为什么要以利润率为锚？ • 合理利润率既防止"倾销"引发恶性内卷的底线，也约束"垄断" ...

申万宏源认为，2026年各企业HFCs配额已下发，在全球供给严格约束下，行业格局优化叠加下游需求 的增长，将带来制冷剂价格和价差的长周期向上，制冷剂作为功能性制剂，"刚需消费品"属性与"特需 经营"商业模式的"基因"正在逐步形成。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，包含炼油化工、聚 氨酯、钾肥、磷化工、氟化工等多个子行业及概念，有望持续受益于反内卷、调结构和淘汰落后产能等 政策。 2月4日，同标的指数规模最大的石化ETF（159731）盘中持续震荡。截至10:35，涨0.2%，持仓股三棵 树、中国石化、上海石化等领涨。石化ETF连续20个交易日合计"吸金"14.57亿元，最新份额达17亿 份，最新规模达17.07亿元，创新高。 在制冷剂量价齐升的带动下，近期，巨化股份、三美股份等制冷剂龙头企业均已披露亮眼的2025年业绩 预告。国内最大制冷剂龙头企业巨化股份披露的业绩预增报告显示，公司预计2025年归母净利润35.40 亿元至39.40亿元，同比增长80%至101%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses macroeconomic trends and asset allocation outlook for 2026, focusing on both domestic and overseas markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. Market Review - Global markets showed an overall increase in January, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets [6][15] - Major commodities experienced significant price fluctuations, particularly metals, which saw a sharp correction at the end of the month [6][15] - Domestic asset performance was mixed, with equities showing high volatility, interest rates declining, and commodities performing strongly [10][15] 2. Domestic Macro Insights - Economic indicators suggest a stable start to the year, with PPI declines expected to narrow due to various factors including rising metal prices [20][22] - Credit demand in Q1 is anticipated to remain stable, with a focus on the performance of new home sales post-Spring Festival [23][25] - The central bank has implemented structural interest rate cuts and indicated potential for further easing, with a focus on maintaining liquidity [26][28] - Fiscal policies are becoming more proactive, with various support measures for small and medium enterprises and consumer loans [29][33] 3. Overseas Macro Insights - The U.S. economy may have reached a bottom, as indicated by recent employment data showing a rebound in non-farm payrolls [39][41] - Tariff policies under the Trump administration are shifting towards more aggressive measures, with potential implications for international trade [42][45] - The nomination of Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair raises questions about future monetary policy direction, particularly regarding interest rate adjustments [49][51] 4. Asset Allocation Outlook - A-shares are viewed as having reasonable valuation levels, with a slight preference for growth stocks in the upcoming quarter due to seasonal effects [56][66] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to perform well in the medium term, supported by domestic economic stabilization and potential foreign capital inflows [67][69] - Interest rates are likely to remain in a range-bound state, with limited upside potential [70][72] - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to stay elevated due to ongoing fiscal pressures, despite recent rate cuts by the Fed [73][75] - The AI sector is identified as a key driver for U.S. stock performance, with implications for technology investments [76][78] 5. Commodity Insights - Oil prices are expected to experience increased volatility due to geopolitical factors, although overall supply may remain excessive [81][83] - Copper prices are projected to remain strong amid tight supply conditions, while gold is anticipated to see short-term fluctuations [84][89] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring credit demand and fiscal policy developments as indicators of economic health [23][29] - The potential impact of U.S. tariff policies on global trade dynamics and market sentiment was emphasized [42][45] - The discussion on the structural changes in the U.S. economy and their implications for monetary policy and asset allocation strategies was noted as critical for investors [51][52]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 4 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 | 盘面大幅下行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大涨 | 国内糖价小幅上调 5 | | 油脂板块：美国 | 45z 拟议规则出台，带动油脂上涨较多 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货偏弱，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货整体下行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 | 蛋价有所下跌 10 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价跟随市场情绪延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面权重降低，资金扰动加大 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 14 | | 铁合金：恐慌情绪有所缓和，仍可作为多头配置 15 | | 金银：金银市场回暖，节前风控仍是主线 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：风险释放后行情企稳 贵金属谨慎参与低多机会 1 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-04 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-04 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 欧美股市集体收跌 观点分享： 欧美股市集体收跌，纳指跌超 1%，大型科技股领跌。周二（2 月 3 日）欧美股市集体 收跌，标普 500 指数跌近 1%，纳指跌超 1%。科技股普跌，美光科技跌超 4%，微软、英伟 达跌近 3%。黄金股表现强劲，盎格鲁黄金涨超 6%，泛美白银涨逾 5%。沃尔玛涨近 3%， 市值突破 1 万亿美元。市场对美联储货币政策不确定性加剧，叠加地缘紧张局势，压制市场 风险偏好，科技股承压明显。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 关注指数 | | --- | | 化工 ★★★★ | | 化工：当前化工板块主要矛盾有两方面：（1）关注反内卷带来的全行业利润修复预期，在 1 | | 月整体化工板块涨幅中，反内卷预期带来的利润修复是主要矛盾，目前芳烃板块已经大幅盈 | | 利，而烯烃板块涨幅相对偏小，部分品种如聚丙烯仍处于亏损状态；（2）伊朗带来的地缘溢 | | 价，伊朗主要影响整体化工的成本支撑，以及相关品种甲醇、LPG、乙二醇、塑料和尿素。 | ...

日报公司 供需存改善预期,多晶硅价格有所修复 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 今日多最硅价格大幅回升。根据万得数据，多品硅主力合约上涨超8%，重回50000元/吨，此前在反垄断担忧影响下，多磊硅反内卷"预明出现动摇，叠加近明美元指数走强、风险资产普遍 间间，多磊疏价格阶段性承压。今日市场债等有所缓和，且多晶硅供需存在边际改善迹象。一方面，根固硅业分会消息，头部企业主动停产以消化库存，供应端压力得到进一步缓解；另一方 面,部分硅料企业重新展现挺价意愿,现货价格对盘面形成一定支撑。 基本面情况 王雨欣 从业资格号:F03108000 投资咨询号:Z0021453 桂 伶 从业资格号:F03114737 投资咨询号:Z0022425 杨 飞 从业资格号:F03108013 王美丹 从业资格号:F03141853 从基本面来看，供应端方面，1月多磊硅供应进一步回落。根据驻业分会消息，当前头部企业已全面停产，部分企业办存在不同程度减产计划。从排产来看，硅业分会预计2月多最品产量进 -5下滑至8.2-8.5万吨，供应收缩力度持续加大。 需求碳方面，多最硅生产与同期硅片企业排产规模基本匹配，市场累库速度有 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4]. Core Insights - The Southeast Asian electric vehicle (EV) market has shown significant changes, with sales and penetration rates of Chinese EV brands in Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand exceeding expectations due to price reductions in 2025 [5][6]. - GWM's net profit for 2025 is reported at 9.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22%, attributed to various factors including policy changes in Russia and increased operational costs [7]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential for Chinese EV exports in 2026, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and product iterations [6][7]. Summary by Sections Southeast Asia Market Analysis - The Southeast Asian EV market has improved significantly, with Chinese brands gaining market share due to competitive pricing strategies [5]. - The market is expected to see continued growth as local support policies evolve, leading to improved supply-demand relationships and increased pricing power for Chinese brands [5][6]. - Major Chinese EV manufacturers are expanding their presence in Southeast Asia, launching new models to enhance their product offerings [6]. GWM Performance Overview - GWM's net profit for 2025 is projected at 9.9 billion yuan, down 22% from the previous year, primarily due to increased costs and operational challenges [7]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 1.8 million vehicles in 2026, with significant contributions expected from new models and international markets [7]. - The introduction of new vehicles is anticipated to drive sales growth and improve profit margins, positioning GWM for a potential valuation increase [7].

| | | | Millio | E No in the | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月03日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面弱势震荡。淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量短期趋稳，库存继续累积。热卷需求、产量均小幅上升，库存继续下降，压 力逐步缓解。钢厂利润欠佳、下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基 建、制造业投资增速持续回落，1月PMI回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector experienced a significant rebound on February 3, 2026, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising by 3.97% and individual stocks in the phosphate, potash, and soda ash sectors showing notable gains [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical ETF (516020) saw a maximum intraday increase of 4.3% before closing up 3.97% [1] - Key stocks included Hongda Co., which surged by 9.16%, and both Cangge Mining and Hualu Hengsheng, which rose over 6% [1] Group 2: Price Trends and Analysis - Recent price increases in various basic chemical products, including dyes and para-nitrochlorobenzene, have been attributed to the cancellation of export tax rebates, leading to a rush in exports [1] - Guojin Securities remains optimistic about investment opportunities in the basic chemical sector, recommending a focus on leading companies and those experiencing price increases from a low base [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The chemical sector has been on an upward trend since the "anti-involution" movement began in July 2025, with investment and supply-side logic strengthening since the fourth quarter of 2025 [1] - Demand from emerging sectors such as energy storage, AI, and commercial aerospace is accelerating, while traditional sectors like textiles and agriculture are expected to continue recovering [1] - Huafu Securities anticipates a rebound in profitability for the chemical industry in 2026, marking a new starting point for supply-demand rebalancing [1]