金十数据6月9日讯，乘联分会文章指出，由于5月厂商生产态势较好，5月厂商批发高于生产4万辆，而 厂商月度国内批发低于零售7万辆，5月乘用车厂商加渠道总体库存下降11万辆（去年同期下降9万 辆）。今年1-5月行业总体库存较去年同期持平（去年1-5月下降49万辆，2023年下降21万、2022年增长 3万、2021年下降82万、2020年下降55万），今年改变了过去2年1-5月持续降库存的特征，也带来厂商 销量的较好增长。 乘联分会：5月乘用车厂商加渠道总体库存下降11万辆 ...

6 月 5 日山东德州报价 2.7 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.02 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期端午节后需求转弱，叠加梅雨季来临，鸡蛋容易发生质量问 题，渠道及下游采购心态偏弱，蛋价支撑有限，不过近期淘汰有所加速，一 定程度缓解供应压力，各环节库存有所消化，关注蛋价跌至低位后冷库入库 积极性。中期来看，25 年 3-4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 7-8 月新开 产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需 要时间，整体高补苗量下，远期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长 期来看，经过上半年养殖利润不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季 度新开产或环比减少，关注三季度淘汰及鸡病情况。短期节后需求转弱，蛋 价支撑不足，三季度供需双增，蛋价反弹承压，四季度供应压力或有所缓 解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月后限仓，观望为 主，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待，养殖企业等待反 弹逢高套保，08 关注 3750-3800 压力，关注饲料端及淘汰扰动；10 关注 逢低多机会。关注淘鸡、鸡病、天气等因素（数据来源：蛋 e 网、同花顺 ...

Core Insights - The Latin American smartphone market experienced a 4% year-on-year decline in Q1 2025, ending six consecutive quarters of growth, with total shipments reaching 33.7 million units [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Performance - Samsung maintained its leading position with 11.9 million units shipped, a 7% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand for entry-level models A06 and A16 [1][5] - Xiaomi ranked second with 5.9 million units shipped, a 10% increase, supported by the continued popularity of the Redmi 14C4G and Note14 series [1][5] - Motorola fell to third place with 5.2 million units shipped, a 13% decline, due to its reliance on low-end products like G15 and G05 [1][5] - Honor rose to fourth place with 2.6 million units shipped, a 2% increase, thanks to strong performance from the X series [1][5] - Transsion ranked fifth with 2.1 million units shipped, experiencing a significant 38% decline, marking its first drop in the region [1][5] Group 2: Market Trends and Challenges - Economic uncertainty, particularly concerns over tariff increases, has severely impacted the smartphone market in Latin America, leading manufacturers to tighten aggressive sales strategies and retailers to reduce inventory [3][7] - The market showed a clear polarization, with growth concentrated in entry-level and high-end segments, while the mid-range market, which accounts for 78% of total shipments, remains a key battleground [3][7] - Brazil was the only major market in the region to see a year-on-year increase in shipments, growing by 3% to 9.5 million units, driven by increased investment from Chinese brands like Honor and Xiaomi [5][7] - Mexico, the second-largest market, saw an 18% decline in shipments, attributed to intense local competition and increased inventory levels [5][7] - Central America experienced its first decline in seven quarters, down 7%, due to inventory buildup and slowing market demand [5][7] Group 3: Future Outlook - Canalys predicts a slight decline of 1% in the Latin American smartphone market for 2025, influenced by global economic uncertainties and potential inflation [7][8] - Manufacturers are expected to focus on maintaining lean and flexible inventory management, optimizing product portfolios, and enhancing consumer experience to remain competitive in a redefined growth environment [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Latin American smartphone market experienced a 4% year-on-year decline in Q1 2025, ending six consecutive quarters of growth, with total shipments reaching 33.7 million units [1][8]. Market Performance - Samsung led the market with 11.9 million units shipped, a 7% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand for entry-level models A06 and A16 [1][8]. - Xiaomi ranked second with 5.9 million units, a 10% increase, supported by the popularity of the Redmi 14C 4G and Note 14 series [1][8]. - Motorola fell to third place with 5.2 million units, a 13% decline, due to its reliance on low-end products like G15 and G05 [1][8]. - Honor's strong performance with the X series led to a 2% increase in shipments to 2.6 million units, securing the fourth position [1][8]. - Transsion ranked fifth with 2.1 million units, experiencing a significant 38% decline, marking its first drop in the region [1][8]. Market Trends - The smartphone market in Latin America showed a clear polarization, with growth concentrated in entry-level and high-end segments, while the mid-range market, which accounts for 78% of total shipments, remains the primary battleground [2][7]. - Economic uncertainty, particularly concerns over tariff increases, has severely impacted the market, leading manufacturers to tighten aggressive sales strategies and retailers to reduce inventory [2][7]. - The Brazilian market was the only one among the top five to see growth, with a 3% increase in shipments to 9.5 million units, driven by increased investments from Chinese brands like Honor, Xiaomi, and realme [4][5]. Future Outlook - Canalys predicts a slight decline of 1% in the Latin American smartphone market for 2025, influenced by global economic uncertainties and potential inflation [7]. - Manufacturers are expected to focus on maintaining lean and flexible inventory management, optimizing product portfolios, and enhancing consumer experience to remain competitive in a redefined growth environment [7].

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs hosted the Alternative Revenue Forum, highlighting Target's strategic positioning and performance in the current retail environment, focusing on diversified revenue channels and inventory management for sustainable growth [1] Group 1: Revenue Diversification - Target's Roundel business has become a significant revenue contributor, accounting for 10% of total revenue with expectations for continued growth due to expansion in the retail network and synergy with Target Plus [1] - Target Plus achieved a gross merchandise volume (GMV) of $1 billion last year, with plans to increase GMV to $5 billion over the next five years through a differentiated market strategy [2] Group 2: Customer Engagement and Digital Growth - Target Circle 360, a loyalty program, offers same-day delivery for orders over $35, with plans to enhance customer benefits by eliminating price markups on Shipt market items [3] - The digital business is profitable and shows strong growth potential, with various fulfillment options and an efficient order processing system leveraging store resources [3] Group 3: Inventory Management and Financial Performance - Target is carefully managing inventory to avoid over-purchasing, with plans to shift more home and hardline products to the marketplace to free up warehouse space [4] - Financially, Target's market capitalization is $42.3 billion, with fluctuating revenues projected to grow from $106.57 billion in Q1 2025 to $112.19 billion in Q1 2026 [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a consolidated revenue of $1.1 billion, a decline of 5% compared to the previous year, with comparable sales decreasing by 3% [20][21] - Adjusted operating loss for the quarter was $68 million, with an adjusted loss per share of $0.29 [5][22] - Gross profit dollars were $322 million, with a gross margin of 29.6%, impacted by approximately $75 million in inventory write-downs [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - American Eagle comparable sales were down 2%, while Aerie comparable sales declined by 4% [5][20] - Aerie faced challenges in soft apparel, particularly in fleece tops and shorts, while experiencing growth in intimates and offline categories [12][14] - American Eagle saw improvements in women's business, particularly in social casual dressing and achieved its best quarter ever in fleece [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Traffic was up across brands and channels, but the company faced pressure from lower average unit retails (AURs) and conversion rates [20][21] - The company is working to reduce sourcing exposure to China to under 10% this year, with plans to further diversify its supply chain [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on optimizing operations and strengthening its supply chain, including closing two Edge fulfillment centers, which is expected to generate annualized savings of approximately $5 million [7][8] - Capital allocation priorities include investments for long-term growth while returning capital to shareholders, including a $200 million accelerated share repurchase program [9][23] - The company is committed to improving product performance and is preparing for the back-to-school season with fresh merchandise [24][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment with first-quarter performance but remains optimistic about the second half of the year, hoping for economic stimulation from potential tax plans [28][29] - The company has paused full-year guidance until there is greater visibility but expects improvement as the year progresses [8][24] Other Important Information - The company recorded a $75 million inventory write-down due to product misses and higher costs, leading to increased promotions [5][12] - SG&A expenses increased by 2% due to higher advertising investments, with a focus on customer-facing spend [22][66] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the company's view of the consumer today and its impact on the retail landscape? - Management is optimistic about the consumer outlook and believes that potential tax plans could stimulate the economy in the second half of the year [28][29] Question: Can you break down the assumptions for gross margin and promotional activity for the second quarter? - The company expects to maintain promotional activity to clean inventory for the back-to-school season, embedding a negative 3% comparable sales expectation [30][31] Question: What are the merchandising issues and how quickly can the company get back on trend? - Management acknowledged product issues but is working swiftly to address them, focusing on clean inventory for the back-to-school season [36][37] Question: How is the company planning its capital allocation and CapEx expenditures? - The company reduced its CapEx guidance to $275 million, recadencing projects to preserve cash in response to business conditions [46][47] Question: How did digital performance compare to stores during the quarter? - The company saw an uptick in digital channels and is leaning into this area for future growth [71] Question: What is the outlook for promotions and SG&A expenses? - The company anticipates continued promotional activity to clean inventory, with SG&A expected to remain flat for the year, focusing on advertising spend [62][66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a consolidated revenue of $1.1 billion, a decline of 5% compared to the previous year, with comparable sales decreasing by 3% [19][20] - Adjusted operating loss for the quarter was $68 million, with an adjusted loss per share of $0.29 [4][22] - Gross profit dollars were $322 million, with a gross margin of 29.6%, impacted by approximately $75 million in inventory write-downs [20][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - American Eagle brand comparable sales were down 2%, while Aerie brand comparable sales declined by 4% [4][19] - Aerie faced challenges in soft apparel, particularly in fleece tops and shorts, while certain categories like intimates showed improvement [12][14] - American Eagle saw growth in women's business, particularly in social casual dressing and achieved its best quarter ever in fleece [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Traffic was reported to be up across brands and channels, although the overall performance was constrained by lower average unit retails (AURs) and conversion rates [19][30] - The company is focusing on diversifying its supply chain and reducing sourcing exposure to China to under 10% this year [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to optimizing operations and strengthening its supply chain, including closing two Edge fulfillment centers, which is expected to generate annualized savings of approximately $5 million [6][22] - Capital allocation priorities include investments for long-term growth while returning capital to shareholders, including a $200 million accelerated share repurchase program [8][9] - The company is focused on improving product performance and preparing for the back-to-school season with fresh merchandise [24][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment with the first quarter performance but remains optimistic about the second half of the year, hoping for improvement as the macro environment stabilizes [4][28] - The company has paused full-year guidance until greater visibility is achieved but expects to see improvement in growth and profitability as the year progresses [22][24] Other Important Information - The company recorded a non-GAAP charge of $17 million related to the closure of fulfillment centers [6][22] - SG&A expenses increased by 2% due to higher advertising investments, with a focus on customer-facing spend [21][63] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the view of the consumer today and its impact on the retail landscape? - Management remains optimistic about the consumer outlook, hoping for positive economic stimulation from potential tax plans [28] Question: Can you break down the assumptions for gross margin and promotional activity in Q2? - The company expects to maintain a similar comp expectation as Q1, embedding promotional activity to clean inventory for back-to-school [30][31] Question: What are the merchandising issues and how quickly can improvements be made? - Management acknowledged product misses but is working swiftly to address these issues and prepare for back-to-school [35][36] Question: How is the capital allocation and CapEx expenditure being approached? - The company has reduced CapEx guidance to $275 million, recadencing projects to preserve cash [44] Question: How are both brands trending relative to the Q2 comp guide? - Both brands are trending similarly to the guidance of down 3% for Q2 [82] Question: What is the outlook for promotions and SG&A expenses? - Promotions are expected to continue in the near term to clean inventory, with SG&A projected to be flat for the year [59][63] Question: How did digital performance compare to stores during the quarter? - There was an uptick in digital performance, with the company leaning into this channel during the quarter [67] Question: What are the plans for inventory for the remainder of the year? - The company is planning inventory in line with sales expectations and maintaining flexibility in buying [88]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted earnings per share for Q1 2025 were $0.22, down from $0.88 in the previous year [29] - Total sales for Q1 2025 were $614.2 million, a decline of 6.8% year over year, which was below expectations of a 5% to 6% decline [26][27] - Consolidated gross margin decreased to 45.4%, down 150 basis points compared to last year [27] - Operating earnings were $12.2 million, resulting in an operating margin of 2% [28] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - Brand Portfolio sales declined by 6.9%, with gross margin at 43.8%, down 280 basis points due to lower initial margins and higher markdown reserves [27][28] - Famous Footwear sales decreased by 6.3%, with comparable sales down 4.6%, but e-commerce sales increased by 2.5% [20][21] - The Brand Portfolio's lead brands, including Sam Edelman and Allen Edmonds, represented about 60% of sales and 80% of operating earnings [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Brand Portfolio gained market share in women's fashion footwear despite overall sales declines [11] - Famous Footwear gained 0.5 points of market share in shoe chains within the kids category [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to reduce SG&A expenses by $15 million annually through structural cuts [7][34] - An acquisition of Stuart Weitzman is expected to enhance the company's premium positioning and direct-to-consumer presence [19] - The company is focusing on optimizing sourcing strategies and managing inventory levels in response to tariff impacts [9][32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a challenging operating environment and emphasized the need to drive growth and profitability [6][7] - There is cautious optimism regarding back-to-school preparations, with no major cancellations reported [40] - The company is suspending guidance due to the volatile environment but is seeing improving retail trends [33][34] Other Important Information - Inventory levels increased by 8.1% year over year, with a significant portion attributed to the upcoming launch of the Jordan brand [30] - Cash flow from operations was negative $5.7 million due to lower net income and higher inventory levels [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: How are you thinking about the prices of your portfolio brands moving into the summer and fall? - The company is making selective price increases, starting with fall receipts, and is managing this in real-time with key partners [38][39] Question: What adjustments are being made for the $15 million in strategic expense cutting? - The reductions are permanent and structural, expected to begin in the third quarter, with $7.5 million in savings for the back half of the year [43][44] Question: How is the Jordan launch performing? - Early trends for the Jordan launch are encouraging, with strong sell-throughs in men's and boys' categories [56][57] Question: What is the impact of tariffs on the business? - The company is managing tariff-related challenges through factory concessions and selective price increases, but the situation remains fluid [32][60] Question: How should we think about inventory reserves and customer credit issues moving forward? - The company believes it has adequately reserved for spring product markdowns and is closely monitoring customer credit ratings [62][63]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales declined by 4.1% and comparable sales decreased by 3.9% in Q1 2026, attributed to the closure of 24 stores [24][25] - Gross margin increased to 39.9%, up 37 basis points year-over-year, driven by category mix benefits and inventory management [27] - SG&A expenses decreased by 5.2% to $1.2 billion, leveraging approximately 32 basis points compared to last year [27] - The company reported a net loss of $15 million, with earnings per diluted share of negative $0.13, a 46% improvement from the previous year [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Jewelry sales increased by 10% in Q1, primarily driven by Kohl's card customers, following the reintroduction of jewelry and the rollout of 200 fine jewelry shops [14][15] - Women's apparel underperformed, prompting a focus on delivering more depth in essentials and improving assortment clarity [15] - The Sephora business saw net sales up 6% and comparable sales up 1% in Q1, contributing to a nearly $2 billion beauty business [16] - The petites business performed well, up in the high teens, driven by new brand introductions [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Digital sales declined by 7.7% in Q1, with the digital business over-penetrating in the home category, which underperformed [25][26] - The store channel outperformed with a comparable sales decline of 2.6% [25] - The company continues to see strong sales from new and non-Kohl's card customers, while Kohl's card customer performance lags [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on three key areas: offering a curated assortment, reestablishing itself as a leader in value and quality, and enhancing the omnichannel shopping experience [12][17][21] - Plans include the rollout of 105 Sephora small format shops and the expansion of impulse queue lines to nearly all stores by Q3 [16][21] - The company aims to improve proprietary brand penetration, which is currently at an all-time low of around 30% [50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the challenges faced by middle-income customers and emphasizes the need to focus on value to restore customer confidence [36][61] - The company is navigating a fluid environment with uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs, but remains committed to achieving its financial guidance for the year [40][32] - Management expressed optimism about the initial results from recent strategic changes and expects to continue momentum throughout the year [23] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $153 million in cash and cash equivalents and expects inventory to be down by high single digits by year-end [28] - Capital expenditures for the quarter were $110 million, with expectations to spend $400 million to $425 million for the year [28] - The company completed a private offering of $360 million in senior secured notes to refinance upcoming debt maturities [29][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Any adjustments to strategic priorities and what will it take to return to comp growth? - Management indicated no major changes to the strategy and emphasized the need to align the business with customer needs, particularly focusing on value [35][36] Question: Insights on quarter-to-date trends and tariff impacts? - Management noted consistent performance with improvements in regular price selling, while holding guidance due to uncertainties in the environment [38][40] Question: Breakdown of gross margin increase and private label performance? - The increase in gross margin was attributed to a mix benefit and improved inventory management, with proprietary brands expected to enhance margins [47][48] Question: Assessment of store footprint and potential closures? - Management stated that the store base is healthy, with ongoing evaluations for potential closures and relocations based on lease expirations [56][58] Question: Update on Sephora collaboration and operating environment? - The rollout of Sephora is complete in all stores, with positive performance noted in fragrance and hair care categories [68][70] Question: E-commerce performance and profitability outlook? - Digital sales are expected to improve progressively, with profitability impacted by shipping costs, but overall management is pleased with expense management [76][78] Question: Margin pressure from tariffs and guidance assumptions? - Management believes they can mitigate most tariff pressures and has factored this into their guidance for the year [80][82]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，贸易商商谈为主，现货基差走强。本周及下周主港货主流在 09+185成交，宁波货在09+178附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4835~4925附近。下周仓单在09+180有成交，6月中上仓单在 09+190有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+184。中性 2、基差：现货4865，09合约基差195，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.15天，环比减少0.13天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多增 偏多 6、预期： ...