1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - After the holiday, the spot price of zinc rose sharply. Although the social inventory increased slightly, the supply remained tight. Traders were reluctant to sell, and downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines. The domestic smelter's comprehensive smelting loss widened, and the supply pressure decreased significantly. The fundamental data is still bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. The market is optimistic about future consumption, with unchanged expectations of interest rate cuts and unreflected re - inflation [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Data - LME zinc spot premium is -$36.25/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,970 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 105 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,870 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 5 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,890 yuan/ton, up 680 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 35 yuan/ton [1] Futures Data - On 2026 - 01 - 05, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,435 yuan/ton and closed at 23,820 yuan/ton, up 525 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 141,147 lots, and the open interest was 89,942 lots. The highest price was 23,930 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,400 yuan/ton [2] Inventory Data - As of 2026 - 01 - 05, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,800 tons, up 8,700 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 105,850 tons, down 475 tons from the previous trading day [3]

尿素日报 | 2026-01-06 节后收单氛围好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-05，尿素主力收盘1768元/吨（+19）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1720 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1720元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1730元/吨（+20）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： -48元/吨（-9）；河南基差：-48元/吨（+1）；江苏基差：-38元/吨（+1）；尿素生产利润155元/吨（+10），出口利润 819元/吨（+1）。 供应端：截至2026-01-05，企业产能利用率80.29%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.92 万吨（-4.97），港口样本 库存量为17.20 万吨（-0.50）。 需求端：截至2026-01-05，复合肥产能利用率33.89%（-3.86%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为47.65%（-10.42%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.00日（-0.35）。 尿素企业元旦期间成交一般，待发尚可，价格稳中有降，元旦节后部分地区环保限制解除，成交好转，期货盘面 震荡偏强进一步带动现货采购情绪，现货价格小幅上涨，主流生产企业实行限收政策，待发增加。 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年1月6日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，少量聚酯工厂补货，现货基差略走弱。本周货源在05-50附近成交， 月中少量在05-46~48成交，价格商谈区间在4970~5090。1月下在05-45附近有成交。仓单在05-40~45成交。今日主流现货基差在 05-49。中性 6、预期：近期伴随部分装置供应回归，PTA供需格局环比转弱，现货市场节后商谈氛围一般，现货基差略有松动，预计短期内 PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，现货基差区间波动。关注油价波动及上下游装置变动。 MEG 每日观点 6、预期：近期受大风天气影响， ...

2026 年 01 月 06 日 短纤：短期震荡市 20260106 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260106 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6400 | 6476 | -76 | PF01-02 | -62 | -38 | -24 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6462 | 6514 | -52 | PF02-03 | 6 | -42 | 48 | | | 短纤2603 | 6456 | 6556 | -100 | PF主力基差 | રેં રે | 31 | 22 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 173239 | 242013 | -68774 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.515 | 6. 545 | -30 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 153152 | 166489 | -13337 | 短纤产销率 | 53% | ...

每经AI快讯，1月5日，钯金期货日内涨5%，现报1780.00美元/盎司。 （责任编辑：郭健东 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 每日经济新闻 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term optimistic, buy on dips; treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is expected to be slightly bullish [1][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper to hold long positions cautiously; aluminum to strengthen observation; nickel to observe or sell short on rallies; tin, gold, and silver for range trading; lithium carbonate for range - bound oscillations [1][11][13][15] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash to wait and see; polyolefins to oscillate weakly [1][19][21][24] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, apples are expected to be slightly bullish; red dates to rebound from the bottom [1][27][28] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, short - term contracts to sell short on rallies, long - term contracts to be cautiously bullish; for eggs, breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies; for corn, short - term to be cautious about chasing highs, grain holders to hedge on rallies; for soybean meal, short - term contracts to be treated strongly on dips, long - term contracts to be treated weakly; for oils, the rebound of the three major oils is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [1][29][31][32] Core Views - The A - share market has a positive start in 2026, with high trading volume and broad - based gains. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027. The bond market is affected by low yields and high supply, and treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [5] - In the black building materials market, the coking coal market is in a game between bearish and bullish factors, and rebar is affected by supply and demand and policies [8] - The non - ferrous metals market is complex. Copper has long - term supply support but short - term over - priced risks; aluminum is affected by fundamentals and policies; nickel is expected to remain in surplus; tin is affected by supply and demand; precious metals are affected by the US economic situation [11][13][15] - The energy chemicals market is generally weak. PVC, caustic soda, and other products are affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [19][21] - In the cotton textile and agricultural livestock markets, products such as cotton, apples, and red dates are affected by supply, demand, and policies; live pigs, eggs, and other products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonality [27][29][31] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: On the first trading day, A - shares opened and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points and trading volume exceeding 2.5 trillion. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027, expecting annual growth of 15% - 20%. The market is expected to develop further, and investors can buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market has quickly digested the positive news about fund fees and bank EVE indicators. Due to low bond yields and high supply, treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is in a game between bearish factors (high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand) and bullish factors (domestic coal mine production cuts, cost support). Short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Rebar**: The futures price was weak on Monday. The valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. Range trading is recommended [8] - **Glass**: Supply - side factors such as production line cold repairs are positive, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, and there are opportunities for long glass and short soda ash [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a high level, but there are short - term over - priced risks. The supply is expected to be sufficient in January, and the price may fluctuate widely at a high level. Long positions should be held cautiously [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The alumina market is in a weak situation, and the aluminum price is driven by expectations and funds. The upward pressure is large in January, and observation is recommended [13] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is expected to decrease, but the overall nickel market is in surplus. The price may rebound in the short term, and investors can observe or sell short on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and range trading is recommended [16] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US economic situation, the prices are expected to move sideways. Long positions in silver can be held, and range trading is recommended for gold [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to oscillate [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is under pressure, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and range trading is recommended [19] - **Caustic Soda**: There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term support depends on the improvement of the alumina market. Temporary observation is recommended [21] - **Styrene**: The current valuation is high, and the price is expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended [21] - **Rubber**: The cost is supported, but the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [22] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and range trading is recommended [23] - **Methanol**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and range trading is recommended [24] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is expected to decrease in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the LP spread is expected to widen [25] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is affected by downstream industries. Temporary observation is recommended [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by the global cotton supply - demand situation and policies, the price is expected to be slightly bullish [27] - **Apples**: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [27] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is over, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [28] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the price is oscillating due to supply - demand games. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase in the first quarter, and the price is under pressure. Short - term contracts can be sold short on rallies, and long - term contracts can be cautiously bullish [29] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price is at a low level. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. Breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies [31][32] - **Corn**: The short - term price increase is limited, and long - term demand is gradually released but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Short - term caution is needed when chasing highs, and long - term there is strong support at the bottom [34] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price is affected by factors such as US soybean exports and South American weather. Range trading is recommended, with short - term contracts treated strongly on dips and long - term contracts treated weakly [35][36] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound of the three major oils is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated. In the long term, there are potential positive factors [41][42]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Multiple commodities are in various market conditions, including high - level oscillations, short - term upward trends, and medium - term pressure. For example, p - xylene and PTA are in a high - level oscillation market supported by costs; MEG has limited upward space and medium - term pressure; synthetic rubber has a short - term upward central shift; methanol is expected to be short - term strong [2][9][10][14][38]. - The market trends of different commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical factors, and cost changes. For instance, the supply and demand of PX and PTA are affected by device startups and shutdowns; the prices of LPG and methanol are affected by geopolitical factors; the prices of urea are affected by demand expectations [9][10][38][41]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Data**: PX, PTA, and MEG futures prices declined on the previous trading day, with declines of - 0.69%, - 1.25%, and - 1.87% respectively. PX CFR China prices dropped, PTA prices in East China decreased, and MEG spot prices also fell. PX - naphtha spreads and PTA processing fees increased slightly, while short - fiber and bottle - chip processing fees decreased [5]. - **Market Dynamics**: PX prices fell due to the decline in naphtha prices; Pakistan imposed anti - dumping duties on PTA imports from China; MEG port inventories in East China decreased slightly [6]. - **Trend and Suggestions**: PX has strong cost support, and long - spread positions can be held. PTA is in a high - level oscillation market, and long - spread operations can be maintained. MEG has a medium - term weak trend, and short - spread positions can be held [9][10]. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Rubber futures prices rose, trading volume and open interest increased, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased. Spot - futures spreads and some variety spreads changed [11]. - **Industry News**: As of January 4, 2026, natural rubber inventories in Qingdao increased, and the production of some enterprises was in the recovery stage after the "New Year's Day" holiday [12][13]. - **Trend**: Rubber is in an oscillating operation [11]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of synthetic rubber rose, trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased. The prices of butadiene and some synthetic rubber products increased, while the profit of butadiene rubber decreased [14]. - **Industry News**: As of December 31, 2025, domestic butadiene rubber inventories decreased; butadiene inventories in East China ports increased. Short - term geopolitical conflicts may lead to a short - term strong trend in butadiene and butadiene rubber [15][16]. - **Trend**: The short - term central shift of synthetic rubber is upward [14]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: LLDPE futures prices declined, the 05 - contract basis strengthened, and spot prices in North, East, and South China increased [17]. - **Market Situation**: The spot market had positive feedback in the short term, and inventory was transferred to the middle stream. The raw material price of crude oil rebounded, and the profit of PE ethylene and ethane processes was compressed. There is medium - term supply - demand pressure [17][18]. - **Trend**: LLDPE is in a neutral trend [18]. PP - **Fundamental Data**: PP futures prices declined, the 05 - contract basis strengthened, and spot prices in North, East, and South China increased [19]. - **Market Situation**: The cost of crude oil and propane is strong, the supply - demand game of existing capacity intensifies, and the demand is weak. It is expected to continue the weak trend, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [19][20]. - **Trend**: PP is in a neutral trend [20]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: The 03 - contract futures price of caustic soda and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong are provided, and the basis is - 8 [21]. - **Market Situation**: After the New Year's Day, the caustic soda contract prices fell due to delivery factors, but the short - term decline based on delivery factors is limited. The fundamentals show a pattern of high production and high inventory, and the demand is weak [23]. - **Trend**: It is not advisable to chase short positions in caustic soda [21][23]. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: Pulp futures prices were relatively stable, trading volume decreased, and open interest increased. Spot prices of some pulp varieties were stable, and spreads changed slightly [28]. - **Industry News**: Spot prices were stable, port inventories were in a cumulative trend, and downstream demand was weak [29]. - **Trend**: Pulp is in a wide - range oscillating market [26]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: Glass futures prices declined, the 05 - contract basis strengthened slightly, and spot prices in Shahe, Hubei, and Zhejiang were stable [32]. - **Market Situation**: Domestic float glass prices were generally stable, and the sales of most regional enterprises were average during the holiday [32]. - **Trend**: Glass is in a neutral trend [32]. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Methanol futures prices declined slightly, the basis strengthened, and spot prices in some regions changed [35]. - **Market Situation**: The spot price index of methanol decreased, port inventories were at a high level but were expected to improve. Geopolitical factors and supply expectations led to a short - term strong trend, and there is a pressure level at 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [37][38]. - **Trend**: Methanol is expected to be short - term strong [38]. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Urea futures prices rose, trading volume increased significantly, and open interest increased. Spot prices of some urea factories increased slightly, and inventories decreased [40][41]. - **Industry News**: As of December 31, 2025, domestic urea enterprise inventories decreased. The spot trading was active, and the medium - term central shift of urea was upward [41]. - **Trend**: The central shift of urea is upward [39][42]. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Styrene futures prices declined, and spreads and inventories changed [43]. - **Market Situation**: The current valuation is high, and there are opportunities to short at high levels. The medium - term drive is weak, and there is pressure in the first quarter [44][46]. - **Trend**: Styrene is in a short - term oscillating market [43]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: Soda ash futures prices declined, the 05 - contract basis strengthened, and spot prices in North, East, and Central China decreased [49]. - **Market Situation**: The domestic soda ash market was weak, supply increased, and demand was average [49]. - **Trend**: Soda ash is in a neutral trend [50]. LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: LPG and propylene futures prices had different changes, trading volume and open interest changed, and spreads and industry data such as PDH and MTBE operating rates were provided [54]. - **Market Situation**: The price of 2 - month CP paper goods for LPG decreased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans. Propylene has limited upward and downward drivers, and the spot trend is stable [59][60]. - **Trend**: LPG and propylene are in a neutral trend [58]. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: PVC futures prices and spot prices, basis, and spreads are provided [63]. - **Market Situation**: The PVC spot market was in a weak - oscillating state, supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. The market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the probability of large - scale production reduction is expected to increase after the 03 - contract [63]. - **Trend**: PVC is short - term strong and medium - term oscillating [62]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices declined, trading volume and open interest changed, and spot prices in different regions decreased [67]. - **Trend**: The upward trend of fuel oil has paused, and there is support below; low - sulfur fuel oil is in a narrow - range oscillating market [67]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of the container freight index (European line) increased, trading volume and open interest increased, and freight rate indices and current freight rates changed [69]. - **Market Situation**: The index showed an oscillating and strong trend, mainly driven by the price increase of MSC. The 1 - month shipping capacity was relatively stable, and the 2 - month shipping capacity may be affected by the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the opening of shipping spaces and pricing strategies [76][77][78]. - **Trend**: The container freight index (European line) is in a neutral trend [81]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - **Fundamental Data**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip futures prices declined, trading volume and open interest changed, and spot prices decreased [82]. - **Market Situation**: Short - fiber futures prices oscillated and declined, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were differentiated. The prices of bottle - chip factories decreased, and the market transaction was okay [82][83]. - **Trend**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip are in a short - term oscillating market [82][83]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of offset printing paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets were stable, and the cost and profit of paper were provided [85]. - **Industry News**: The prices of high - white and natural - white offset printing paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets were stable, the demand was weak, and the trading was general [86][88]. - **Trend**: It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper [85]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Data**: Pure benzene futures prices declined, port inventories increased, and spreads and inventories of related products changed [89]. - **News**: As of January 5, 2026, pure benzene port inventories in Jiangsu and China increased, and the price of Shandong pure benzene decreased [90]. - **Trend**: Pure benzene is in a short - term oscillating market [89].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： （张笑金，从业资格号：F0306200；交易咨询资格号：Z0000082） 消息方面，截至2025年12月31日，印度2025/26榨季糖产量达到1189.7万吨，较去年同期的954万吨增加 近25%；已开榨糖厂504家，较去年同期的492家增加12家。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团报价区间为 5280~5360元/吨，下调10~20元/吨；云南制糖集团报价5110~5200元/吨，下调10元/吨；加工糖厂主流报 价区间为5750~5900元/吨，个别下调10元/吨。原糖方面，泰国产量逐渐爬坡，但短期并无新的消息主 导，受其他大宗商品上涨影响，期价在区间低位小幅反弹，中期增产问题仍将施压。国内方面，元旦节 后询价增多，预计春节前仍有一轮补库采购，短期市场暂时取得平衡，预计期价窄幅震荡，中期压力仍 存，近期关注12月主产省产销数据。 棉花： （孙成震，从业资格号：F03099994；交易咨询资格号：Z0021057） 周一，ICE美棉上涨0.98%，报收64.64美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨0.72%，报收14655元/吨，主力 合约持仓环 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the agriculture sector mainly fluctuated. Different agricultural products showed various trends, including price adjustments, low - level fluctuations, and price increases. Overall, the market was affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and macro - environment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats are undergoing corrective consolidation. Palm oil led the decline in oils and fats futures, with weak fundamental data. The macro - environment and industrial factors have a negative impact on vegetable oil prices. Overall, oils and fats are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to focus on fundamental indicators and policy expectations, and consider staged buying hedging after excessive declines [4] - **Logic**: Geopolitical issues have a weakening impact on crude oil prices, which in turn affects vegetable oil prices negatively. South American soybean production is expected to be high, and domestic soybean supply is relatively sufficient. The palm oil production area is in the off - season, but export demand is weak. Overseas rapeseed production is high, and domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase, showing a near - strong and far - weak pattern [4] 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The expectation of a good harvest in South America is strong, and the two types of meal are fluctuating at a low level. The prices of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [5] - **Logic**: Internationally, South American weather is normal, and the market expects a good harvest of South American soybeans. US soybean exports face competition from South American soybeans. Domestically, before the festival, supply and demand are both weak. Oil mills' inventory is increasing, and downstream demand is not strong [5] 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Purchase and sales are gradually recovering, and prices are fluctuating within a range. The overall price is under pressure but also has support, and it is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival, with a possible first - decline - then - rise trend [7][9][10] - **Logic**: Affected by the corn auction, the price once rose, but the overall fundamentals have no major contradictions. The launch of policy - based grain sources has a limited negative impact. In different regions, the supply and demand situations vary, and downstream demand and inventory also affect the price [9] 3.4 Live Pigs - **View**: After the holiday, the demand drive weakens, and the futures price declines. In the short - term, the price is expected to be weak, and in the long - term, the supply pressure may gradually weaken [10][11] - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand after the New Year's Day holiday weakens. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long - term, sow production capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure may ease after May 2026 [11] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Bullish sentiment still exists, and rubber prices are fluctuating at a high level. In the short - term, it can be considered bullish [13][14] - **Logic**: Driven by the overall strong sentiment of commodities, natural rubber has a strong performance. Fundamentally, overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, but the demand side is relatively weak after the price increase [14] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price maintains a fluctuating trend. In the short - term, there is pressure, and in the medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [15][16] - **Logic**: The expectation of marginal improvement in butadiene fundamentals has become a market consensus. Although the current inventory is increasing, the market expects good prospects, and the downstream industry's demand is also rising [16] 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices are rising with increasing positions. In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the strategy of buying on dips is recommended [16][18] - **Logic**: Fundamentally, the new cotton is in the peak listing period, but the inventory accumulation is less than expected, and the apparent demand is increasing. Policy - wise, there is an expectation of a reduction in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, which drives the price up [16][18] 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuate narrowly and are still under pressure in the medium - term. In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the strategy of selling on rebounds is recommended [18] - **Logic**: Globally and domestically, the sugar supply is increasing. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is decreasing, Thailand's production is delayed, and India's production is growing. In China, the sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to increase [18] 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The market is dominated by funds and the macro - environment, and pulp futures fluctuate repeatedly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [19] - **Logic**: Fundamentally, there are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include rising prices of broad - leaf pulp, supply reduction expectations of coniferous pulp mills, and high downstream paper production. Negative factors include difficulties in cost transfer of downstream paper and seasonal decline in demand [19] 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [20][21] - **Logic**: The market trend of double - glue paper has changed from falling to rising. The inventory pressure of paper mills has been relieved, and the supply is expected to be stable. Paper mills' price - increase plans may support the price in the short - term [21] 3.11 Logs - **View**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices fluctuate narrowly. From January to February, the supply pressure will gradually ease, and it will maintain range - bound fluctuations [22] - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the log market has no obvious upward or downward drive. The supply pressure will be relieved in January and February, and the futures price has support at a certain range. The 03 contract has certain game characteristics [22] 3.12 Commodity Index - On January 5, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2345.23, up 0.63%; the commodity 20 index was 2684.12, up 0.73%; the industrial products index was 2272.17, up 0.21%. The agricultural product index on January 5, 2026, was 932.85, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a 5 - day decline of 0.05%, a 1 - month increase of 0.07%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.00% [182][184]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the global liquidity environment significantly improved, with the Federal Reserve initiating a substantial interest rate cut cycle, leading to a 9.41% decline in the US dollar index, which provided a favorable external environment for the rise in precious metal prices. China's steady growth policies continued to exert influence, with marginal recovery in manufacturing and infrastructure demand, resulting in a notable improvement in the demand for non-ferrous metals and related new energy products. Under the resonance of loose liquidity and risk aversion, the precious metals sector performed exceptionally well, with the Wind Precious Metals Index rising by 69.7%, significantly outperforming major global equity markets. Overall, the asset trends in 2025 exhibited a typical characteristic of "precious metals leading, equity assets diverging, and a weaker dollar" [1]. Group 1: Asset Performance - The Wind Precious Metals Index increased by 69.7% in 2025, outperforming the major equity markets [2] - The total A-share market rose by 27.65%, while the S&P 500 index increased by 16.39% [2] - The US dollar index fell by 9.41%, marking a significant shift in the currency landscape [2] Group 2: Futures and Options Market - In 2025, 18 new futures and options products were launched, with 9 in each category, reflecting a focus on non-ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and precious metals [4][5] - The total funds in the domestic futures market reached 497.75 billion yuan by the end of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 52.61%, reversing the previous two years of outflows [9] - The trading volume in the futures market reached a historical high of 76.625 trillion yuan, up 23.74% year-on-year [12] Group 3: Trading Company Rankings - Guotai Junan ranked first in trading volume with 1.631 billion contracts, a 44.74% increase year-on-year [17][18] - CITIC Futures ranked second with 1.486 billion contracts, showing a 14.02% increase [18] - The top ten trading companies accounted for approximately 57.83% of the total delivery volume in the futures market [19] Group 4: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Silver futures saw a remarkable increase of 124.62% in 2025, with CITIC Futures earning over 4.9 billion yuan in profits from silver trading [22][23] - The precious metals sector experienced a significant inflow of 952.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 138.45% [30] - The trading volume of precious metals reached 145.11 trillion yuan, marking a 76.63% increase year-on-year [27] Group 5: Commodity Price Trends - Precious metals continued to rise for the fourth consecutive year, while energy and chemical sectors faced declines, with crude oil prices dropping by 10.98% [47] - The delivery amount for gold reached 51.741 billion yuan, a 291.50% increase year-on-year [49][50] - The market saw a divergence in performance, with precious metals leading the commodity market while energy indices fell by over 20% [33]