期 货 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 对二甲苯：PTA 新装置投产在即，PX 供需仍 PX：据悉，华东一炼厂一套常减压装置着火，该工厂一套 70 万吨 PX 装置目前仍在运行中，后续是否 停车需要关注受灾程度。 市场参与者表示，价格上涨缺乏明显的看涨催化剂，可能是常规市场波动的一部分。 "今天的涨幅只是 [每日] 波动，"一位 PX 交易员说。 PTA：多 PX 空 PTA 止盈，月差反套 MEG：单边震荡市，月差逢低正套 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6696 | 4710 | 4267 | 6518 | 510.7 | | 涨跌 | 6684 | 0 | -12 | 0 | 8.4 | | 涨跌幅 | 12 | 0.00% | -0.28% | 0.00% | 1.67% | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF8 ...

纯苯期货连续走高，三季度130万吨产能虎视眈眈，上涨动力能否延续？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Methanol - The inland methanol market has limited short - term downside due to July's concentrated maintenance. The port market faces dual pressures: expected 1.2 million tons of imports in July as Iranian plants resume production, and planned maintenance of coastal MTO reducing olefin demand. A slight inventory build - up is expected in July, with stronger price suppression. Risk of delayed shipping from Iran's low inventory should be watched [1]. Urea - Short - term price drivers are export demand and supply changes. Increased export demand and eased supply pressure support prices, while weakening agricultural and industrial demand limit price increases. Supply pressure is eased as daily production drops below 200,000 tons due to temporary maintenance. Agricultural demand will end soon, and industrial demand recovers slowly, so long positions should not be overly chased [7]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are in a strong - side oscillation due to the delayed US tariff policy and OPEC+ production increase. Demand suppression is mitigated, and the refinery operation rate is high due to tight diesel supply. Geopolitical risks exist, but no actual supply disruption has occurred. After the summer peak, prices will face pressure, and short - term trading should be range - bound [11]. Pure Benzene - Domestic plant maintenance reduces pure benzene load, but overseas load increases. Downstream demand has a slight rebound. Overall, weekly supply - demand improves marginally, but high port inventory and new production expectations limit price support. A cautious short or wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and a reverse spread strategy for month - spreads [33]. Styrene - Supply is expected to increase as some plant maintenance is postponed and previous maintenance units resume. Demand weakens as downstream losses increase and inventory rises. Port inventory is rising, and the market lacks buying support after paper - cargo delivery. Short - term supply - demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline. Short - term trading should be short - biased, and options should sell call options above 7500 for EB08 [34]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply - demand tightness eases as PXN recovers, domestic maintenance is postponed, and overseas supply resumes. Oil price support is limited, but 7 - 8 month new PTA plant start - ups may keep supply tight. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and decline in the medium - term [40]. - **PTA**: July maintenance is limited, new plants are stable, and downstream polyester may cut production. Supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the basis is falling. Oil and PX support prices in the short - term, but terminal feedback restricts price increases. Trade in the 4600 - 4900 range with a short - bias at the upper limit [40]. - **MEG**: Supply increases at home and abroad, with a balanced supply - demand in July and inventory build - up in 8 - 9 months. Domestic coal - based plants may restart, and imports are expected to rise. Terminal demand is weakening, so prices face pressure. Short - term trading should sell call options at 4400 for EG09 and use a reverse spread strategy for EG9 - 1 [40]. - **Short - fiber**: Both supply and demand are weak as plants may cut production in July, and downstream demand is poor. Processing fees are mainly restored by PTA basis changes, and prices follow raw materials. Expand processing fees at low levels and watch for production cuts [40]. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply may improve as some plants cut production in July, but high inventory exists. Processing fees are recovering, and prices follow costs. Trading strategies are similar to PTA, with a positive spread for PR8 - 9 and expanding processing fees at the lower limit [40]. Polyolefins - Both PP and PE have supply contractions. PP maintenance losses increase, and PE domestic maintenance peaks while imports are expected to be low. Cost - based valuations have recovered, and July balance sheets show inventory reduction, but overall pressure remains. Short - term support from inventory reduction can be watched, and mid - term short positions in PP can be established when prices reach 7200 - 7300 [44]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2509 prices decreased on July 8th. MA91 spread decreased, and the Taicang basis increased. Spot prices in various regions mostly declined, and some regional spreads changed [1]. - **Inventory**: Middle - sized methanol enterprises' inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased [1]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased, while some downstream operating rates like MTO and MTBE increased, and others like formaldehyde decreased [1]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Some futures contract prices increased on July 8th, and some spot prices remained stable or changed slightly [7]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days data showed various changes. Supply pressure eased, and demand had different trends in agriculture and industry [7]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices had different changes on July 9th. Spreads between different contracts and different oil types also changed [11]. - **Product Oil**: Product oil prices and spreads, as well as cracking spreads, showed various trends [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: Spot and futures prices, spreads, and inventory data changed. Domestic and overseas operating rates had different trends, and overall supply - demand had marginal changes [33]. - **Styrene**: Spot and futures prices, spreads, and inventory data changed. Supply is expected to increase, and demand weakens [34]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other upstream prices changed on July 8th [40]. - **PX**: PX prices, spreads, and operating rates changed. Supply - demand tightness eases [40]. - **PTA**: PTA prices, spreads, processing fees, and operating rates changed. Supply - demand is expected to weaken [40]. - **MEG**: MEG prices, spreads, inventory, and operating rates changed. Supply - demand is turning to surplus [40]. - **Polyester Products**: Prices and cash - flows of polyester products like POY, FDY, etc. changed, and operating rates of different polyester segments also changed [40]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot Prices**: LLDPE and PP futures and spot prices changed on July 8th, and some spreads and basis values also changed [44]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: PE and PP operating rates, inventory data, and downstream operating rates changed. Both show supply contractions [44].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 7 月 9 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（7 月 8 日）A 股三大指数集体走强，沪指再度向 3500 点发起冲击。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.70%，收报 3497.48 点；深证成指涨 1.46%，收报 10588.39 点；创业板指涨 2.39%，收报 2181.08 点。沪深两 市成交额达到 14539 亿，较昨日放量 2453 亿。 沪深 300 指数 7 月 8 日震荡趋强，收盘 3998.45，环比上涨 33.28。 【焦炭 焦煤】7 月 8 日焦炭加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 1431.5，环比上涨 2.8。 7 月 8 日，焦煤加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 856.9 元，环比上涨 7.1。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：因现货焦煤涨价，部分焦化厂亏损减产，焦炭供应压力缓和。短期来看，多数焦化厂能保持微利，焦 炭开工率大幅下滑的可能性低。需求，下游钢厂盈利稳定，因部分地区环保限产，本周铁水产量下滑，钢厂仅维 持刚需采购，市场传言下周焦炭一轮提涨，钢厂对此较为抵触，提涨落地难度较大。 焦煤：前期停产的煤矿陆续复产，焦煤产量边际 ...

多晶硅期货涨势如虹，主力合约涨幅现有所收窄，机构预计多晶硅盘面或进一步跟涨现货，下一阻力位 暂看.....点击阅读。 期货热点追踪 相关链接 ...

为进一步深化期货市场服务民营企业质效，促进民营经济高质量发展，近日，"河南省民营企业建立健 全现代企业制度（期货专题）第一期培训班"在郑州成功举办。本次培训活动，郑商所联合河南省委统 战部、省委金融办、省发展改革委、省财政厅、省工商联、河南证监局，为60家河南省民营龙头企业高 管带来了一场期现融合的"破浪之旅"。 郑商所市场发展部副总监潘建状致辞时表示，今年2月，习近平总书记在民营企业座谈会上指出，扎扎 实实落实促进民营经济发展的政策措施，是当前促进民营经济发展的工作重点。在河南经济发展中，民 营企业贡献了55%以上的GDP，是河南经济的重要支撑。截至去年年底，河南省民营经济主体数量为 1081.7万户，约占全部经营主体的96%。民营经济发展壮大，离不开金融"活水"支持。期货市场作为金 融体系的重要组成部分，始终以服务实体经济为己任，有责任、有义务去积极促进民营经济发展壮大。 "郑商所作为国内重要的期货交易平台，为河南省乃至全国产业发展筑起了坚实的风险管理屏障。在原 材料价格剧烈波动、市场竞争白热化的当下，期货市场作为现代金融市场的重要组成部分，在服务实体 经济、助力企业风险管理等方面发挥着越来越重要的作用。 ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 9 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩 ...

行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 09 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究 ...

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 7 月 9 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 目前在产蛋鸡存栏处于增长的趋势之中，根据卓创资讯，截至 5 月末，全国 在产蛋鸡月度存栏量约 13.34 只，4 月末为 13.29 亿只，3 月末为 13.18 亿只， 环比增幅 0.4%，连续 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of pure benzene futures and options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange provides a crucial risk management tool for the aromatic industry, enabling companies to hedge against price volatility effectively [1][5]. Group 1: Trading Performance - On the first day of trading, four contracts were listed: BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, and BZ2606, with a total trading volume of 26,900 contracts and a cumulative transaction value of 4.788 billion yuan [3]. - The closing price for the main contract BZ2603 was 5,931 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.53% increase from the benchmark price of 5,900 yuan/ton, indicating a stable market response [3]. - A total of 230 institutional clients participated in the trading, with institutional holdings accounting for 62.7% of the positions, highlighting strong interest from major industry players [3]. Group 2: Industry Context - Pure benzene is a critical organic chemical raw material, linking upstream oil and coal resources to downstream industries such as synthetic resins, fibers, and rubber, with applications in textiles, home appliances, automotive, and construction [4]. - China is the world's largest producer, consumer, and importer of pure benzene, with a projected production of 25.13 million tons and a consumption of 29.26 million tons in 2024, leading to a market size of 208.6 billion yuan [4]. - The volatility of pure benzene prices has increased significantly, with prices dropping from a peak of 7,780 yuan/ton to 5,375 yuan/ton since 2025, a decline of 31% [4]. Group 3: Risk Management Demand - The introduction of pure benzene futures and options addresses the strong demand for risk management tools within the industry, allowing companies to lock in prices and mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [5]. - Companies like Hengshen Holdings and Xuyang Group actively participated in the first day of trading, indicating a proactive approach to managing raw material procurement costs through futures contracts [4].