CFM：预计Q3服务器DDR4、DDR5延续涨价行情 《科创板日报》13日讯，据CFM闪存市场，预计三季度服务器DDR4产品价格继续上涨但涨幅缩窄，或 将落在10%-15%区间。三季度服务器DDR5产品价格预计价格较二季度微幅增长，而四季度随着原厂 DDR5产能爬坡、良率提升令供应端集中释放产能，服务器DDR5产品将面临价格风险。 ...

西太平洋银行：周末之前风险非常高，原油价格很有可能突破1月份的高点 金十数据6月13日讯，西太平洋银行大宗商品和碳研究主管罗伯特•雷尼表示："鉴于以色列的袭击似乎 更多地是针对伊朗军事总参谋部，包括伊斯兰革命卫队的负责人和高级核科学家，而美国没有参与其 中，这表明我们今天看到的更多是先发制人的打击，而不是持续的军事冲突。""然而，交易员将非常关 注伊朗的反应，以及它是如何针对以色列的，而不是代理攻击。进入周末前的风险非常高，原油价格很 有可能突破1月份的高点。""然而，从更大的角度来看，我们仍然认为，随着我们进入第三季度，我们 将看到价格下探60至65美元区间的低端，而进入第四季度时，价格有可能跌破60美元。" ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-13 现货价格涨跌互现，豆粕维持震荡 近期市场资讯，2025年5月29日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为54.7万吨，此前市场预估为15.5-40万吨，前一周修正 后30.1万吨，初值为26.8万吨。截至2024年6月6日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为23.4万吨。本作物年度迄今，美国 大豆出口检验量累计为4518.8万吨，上一年度同期为4054.3万吨。 市场分析 国内方面，随着巴西大豆的大量到港，国内油厂开机率迅速提升，豆粕库存也从之前的低位迅速上升，预计未来 豆粕累库节奏还将进一步加快。整体来看，短期内巴西升贴水的上升将一定程度上对豆粕有所支撑，但大豆整体 较为宽松的供应格局仍未改变，未来需重点关注巴西升贴水的变化情况、美豆种植区的天气情况以及政策端的变 化情况。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 政策变化 玉米观点 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3049元/吨，较前日变动+2元/吨，幅度+0.07%；菜粕2509合约2674元/吨，较前 日变动+36元/吨，幅度+1.36%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2950元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M09 ...

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：国内动力煤价格在经历 5 月下旬的短暂企稳后，再次走弱。5 月份，山西等主产区出 现安全事故，6 月进入国家安全生产月后，产地安监和环保影响有所加大，但当前正值迎峰度夏 关键时期，预计对国内煤炭产量整体影响可控。需求方面，6 月 4 日，国家气候中心发布 2025 年 汛期全国气候趋势滚动预测，显示今夏我国降水呈现"北多南少"的特征，其中四川东北部、云 南西部等地降水较常年同期偏多，且大部地区气温偏高。不过，截至 5 月底，国内电厂煤 ...

2025 年 6 月 13 日 碳酸锂：产量高位带动累库延续，锂价偏弱运行 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 60,440 | -1,240 | 340 | 60 | -3,600 | -15,260 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 169,708 | -66,489 | -74,884 | -218,432 | -144,226 | 161,786 | | | | 2507合约（持仓量） | 162,882 | -15,353 | -68,706 | -120,725 | -121,449 | 129,355 | | ...

Group 1 - The historical trend indicates that for every 1% decline in the US dollar index, gold prices tend to rise by an average of 0.8% from 2000 to 2023 [2] - The current situation shows that the Federal Reserve has paused interest rate hikes, leading the dollar index to drop from a high of 114 to 105, which supports gold prices [2] - Key indicators to monitor include the actual yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, with a critical point at 0% and the current value at 1.4% [2] Group 2 - A rise of 10 points in the geopolitical risk index correlates with a short-term increase in gold prices by 2-3% [2] - When the US CPI year-on-year exceeds 5%, the annualized return rate for gold reaches 12% [2] - The current global inflation center has shifted to 4%, above the pre-pandemic level of 3% [2] Group 3 - Trigger conditions for significant gold price increases include a US unemployment rate above 4.5% and CPI falling below 3% [4] - If gold prices break through $2100, they could potentially reach $2300 [4] - Gold mining stocks are expected to benefit significantly, with potential price increases up to twice that of gold prices due to leverage effects [4] Group 4 - The historical reference from the 1970s stagflation period shows that gold prices increased by 12 times [4] - Investment strategies recommended include increasing holdings in gold ETFs (like GLD) and physical gold bars [4] - The global central banks' aggressive interest rate hikes could lead to a surge in actual interest rates [4] Group 5 - The formula for gold allocation is based on the geopolitical risk index and inflation rate, indicating a calculated approach to investment [6] - Gold is viewed as a "ballast" during turbulent times, with expectations for it to potentially break historical highs in 2024 due to multiple driving factors [6] - The essence of gold allocation is seen as purchasing "insurance" rather than seeking excess returns [7] Group 6 - The average premium for Shanghai gold in 2023 was $7 per ounce, peaking at $35 per ounce [7] - The strategy includes buying physical gold domestically and hedging with overseas futures [7] - The potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs could divert 20% of safe-haven funds away from gold [7]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have significantly increased due to various factors including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and a decrease in U.S. oil inventories [2][4][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil contracts rose by $2.90, a 4.34% increase, closing at $69.77 per barrel; WTI contracts increased by $3.17, a 4.88% rise, closing at $68.15 per barrel [2]. - The market reacted to news of U.S. personnel withdrawal from the Middle East, which heightened geopolitical tensions and led to a 5.2% spike in WTI crude futures [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations are critical; successful talks could ease tensions and lower oil prices, while failure may lead to further price increases [2][6]. - Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil consumption passes, poses a risk of supply disruptions if tensions escalate [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation remains moderate, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.4% year-on-year in May, which supports oil prices [6]. - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.64 million barrels to 432.415 million barrels as of June 6, indicating a tightening supply [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the oil market may remain volatile due to ongoing geopolitical risks, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and OPEC's production decisions [7]. - The expectation for Brent crude oil prices is to range between $60 and $70 per barrel for the year, with potential short-term rebounds but a long-term bearish outlook [7].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant increase in urea inventory in China, raising concerns about potential further price declines in the market [1] - India's recent urea tender has drawn attention, indicating a shift in demand dynamics within the region [1] Industry Summary - China's urea inventory has seen a notable rise, which could lead to downward pressure on prices [1] - The recent urea tender from India suggests a potential increase in demand, which may influence regional pricing strategies [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices during the European trading session and explores the reasons behind this movement [1] - It raises questions about whether gold prices can break through key resistance levels in the future [1] - The article also examines the short-term outlook for day traders, questioning whether they are leaning towards a bullish or bearish sentiment [1] Summary by Categories - **Price Movement**: Gold prices experienced a significant increase during the European trading session, prompting analysis of the underlying factors driving this trend [1] - **Future Projections**: There is speculation on whether gold can surpass critical price levels, indicating potential for further upward movement [1] - **Trader Sentiment**: The article highlights the current sentiment among day traders, suggesting a division between bullish and bearish perspectives in the short term [1]

部分合适货源难寻，存货商要价暂未有明显松动。需求疲软，走货速度放缓，去库存进度变慢，且减产幅 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 行。后续继续关注套袋情况。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 苹果产业日报 2025-06-12 度或小于预期，支撑作用减弱，导致苹果价格承压，不过当前库存较低，对价格有一定支撑，短期震荡运 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 7576 25 10月合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) | 7576 | 25 | | 期货 ...