Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly following the U.S. military action against Iranian nuclear facilities, which has escalated the geopolitical risks and driven investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Gold prices experienced significant fluctuations, opening near the $3400 mark and briefly rising by nearly $30 (0.8%) before retreating to around $3365.62, reflecting the impact of heightened geopolitical risks on market sentiment [1][3] - The current market dynamics are reminiscent of the early stages of the 2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict, where initial optimism was followed by prolonged geopolitical instability, suggesting that the situation may evolve similarly [3] Group 2 - Support levels for gold are identified at $3360, $3350, and $3340, with potential declines below these levels leading to further drops to $3330 and $3320 [4] - Resistance levels are noted at $3370, $3380, and $3390, with a significant psychological barrier at $3400, which, if breached, could lead to targets of $3420 and $3430 [4] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate decisions, is creating additional market variables that could influence gold prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The UK economy remains sluggish despite improvements in the business environment, with a projected GDP growth rate of only 0.1% for the second quarter [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - According to the initial PMI survey data, business activity growth is stagnating, indicating a lack of significant recovery in the economy [1] - Business confidence has declined again in June compared to the same period last year, reflecting ongoing concerns about government policies and global trade protectionism [1] Group 2: Employment and Inflation - Employment numbers continue to decrease as companies face higher labor costs, lower demand, and diminished confidence stemming from last autumn's budget [1] - The stagnation in growth, declining employment, and lower inflation rates may lead the Bank of England to consider another interest rate cut in its upcoming policy meeting in August [1]

Group 1 - Asian markets opened lower on Monday, with both currencies and stock markets declining due to heightened investor panic following the U.S. attack on Iran, which has raised concerns over potential disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies [1] - The South Korean won led the decline among Asian currencies, contributing to a 0.3% drop in the Bloomberg Asian Dollar Index, while the Indonesian rupiah also weakened, prompting the central bank to intervene in the market [1] - Brent crude oil prices are nearing $80 per barrel, leading to inflationary pressures globally and impacting economic growth, particularly for net oil-importing Asian currencies [1] Group 2 - The 30-day correlation between Brent crude futures and the Asian Dollar Spot Index has reached -0.45, the most negative since March 2022, indicating potential risk linkage effects [2] - According to Wells Fargo, the Indian rupee, South Korean won, Thai baht, and Philippine peso are likely to be the most affected currencies, with concentrated long positions in the won and baht potentially leading to short-term weakness [2] - Concerns over the U.S. potentially revoking export exemptions for technology to China have led to significant sell-offs in chip stocks, particularly impacting the Taiwanese stock market [2]

就市场传出"封盘"和产品分红的消息，6月22日，百亿量化私募宽德投资发布了相关说明。 宽德投资回应"封盘"传闻 此前，有媒体报道称，据渠道人士透露，宽德投资将在6月30日全渠道进行"封盘"；近期宽德 投资对旗下部分产品进行分红，单位净值归"1"。 6月22日晚间，宽德投资在官微发布了《关于宽德投资产品运作安排的说明》。近期，公司的 部分渠道募集节奏调整，市场对公司基金产品运作情况有所关注，同时也有投资人针对产品 分红等安排提出询问。 针对产品"封盘"的说法，宽德投资表示， 目前公司层面并无统一"封盘"计划， 当前部分合作 渠道针对产品募集节奏所做的阶段性调整，旨在更好地匹配策略承载能力，力争持续为投资 者带来良好体验。 宽德投资称，在合理控制同类策略新增规模的同时，公司将结合市场环境与运作安排，稳妥 推进产品的后续开放。敬请投资者理性看待，合理评估自身配置方案。 值得注意的是，衍复投资并非今年首个主动暂停新客申购的头部私募。 5月30日，睿郡资产发布公告称，公司董承非管理的产品自6月8日起暂停接受新客户申购申 请，恢复申购的时间将另行通知，存量客户的申购业务不受影响。 据中国基金报报道，这是董承非"公奔私"三 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's recent operations and economic data indicate a mixed but generally supportive environment for the bond market, with expectations of further actions to stimulate the economy and manage interest rates [1][20]. Market Overview - The central bank conducted net withdrawal operations last week, leading to fluctuations in the funding environment due to tax payments and MLF maturities [1]. - Economic data released during the week exceeded expectations, contributing to a slight adjustment in bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by approximately 0.5 basis points to 1.64% [1][4]. - The issuance of local government bonds is set to exceed 580 billion yuan, with net financing expected to surpass 500 billion yuan, marking the highest levels since December 2024 and February 2025 [1][8]. Bond Yield Changes - The yield curve for government bonds showed declines across various maturities, with the 1-year and 2-year yields decreasing by 4.5 basis points and 4.7 basis points, respectively [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield saw a minor decline of 0.44 basis points, reflecting a broader trend of decreasing yields across the curve [3][4]. Trading Activity - The trading of long-term government bonds has seen strong buying interest, with the 30-year futures contract rising by 0.71% and the 10-year contract increasing by 0.14% [6]. - The overall bond market remains in a favorable environment, although further declines in interest rates may require additional catalysts such as central bank bond purchases [1][20]. Economic Data Insights - Industrial output and service sector growth have shown positive trends, with industrial value-added output growing by 5.8% year-on-year in May, and retail sales increasing by 6.4% [16][17]. - Fixed asset investment also demonstrated growth, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% for the first five months of the year [18]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the current favorable conditions in the bond market are supported by both fundamental and liquidity factors, with expectations for a potential "bond bull" market [20]. - The resumption of government bond trading by the central bank is viewed as a long-term positive, although short-term impacts may vary [21].

Group 1 - The recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, have heightened market volatility and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and oil [1][2]. - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, opening near $3400 and reaching a peak of $3398.02 before settling at $3365.62, reflecting a 0.2% increase amid rising risk aversion [1]. - The U.S. dollar index rose to a near three-week high of 99.23, driven by safe-haven flows, while U.S. stock index futures initially fell by nearly 1% [1][2]. Group 2 - Central banks globally continued to purchase gold in the first half of 2025, supporting the bullish trend in gold prices despite geopolitical tensions and economic concerns [2]. - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts later in the year are expected to maintain a favorable environment for gold prices, with expectations of two rate cuts in the second half of the year [2]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz, could lead to further increases in oil prices and inflationary pressures globally [2]. Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a bearish trend, with resistance levels identified at $3375 and potential support around $3340 [3][5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest a focus on selling at higher levels, particularly around $3375-$3380, while considering buying opportunities near $3340-$3345 [5]. - The market is expected to remain volatile, with traders advised to monitor key economic indicators such as U.S. PCE data and PMI figures from Europe and the U.S. [2][5].

以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者司伟杰 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您 的财富保驾护航。 后市关注点 在众多宽基指数中，科创板走的最弱，半导体、算力、机器人等科技股，从三月份左右开 始，拥挤度到达高位之后，一直走一个弱调整的趋势，目前还没有全面走向右侧。不过，随 着金融政策如科创板成长层的推出，以及后续一系列科创属性的新股上市，有望带动半导体 等科技股的关注度。这可能还需要一段时间，且成交量需要配合。总体上我们建议先防守， 再进攻。 市场回顾 本周市场收阴，上周我判断市场偏弱势，理由是：上证指数多次挑战 3400 点后回落，这里 形成了一个心理关口，后期如无较大成交量，站稳 3400 点有一定难度。微盘股指数，形成 了高位十字星，因此要暂时谨慎对待小微盘股票。港股周线形成长上影线，且 A/H 溢价到达 新低，这个比值要想回到常规区间，往往需要港股回调或 A 股上涨，从历史经验来看，往往 是前者的概率更高一些。因此应该慎重对待，控制仓位观望为主。那么本周则是较为符合预 期。指数本周打破上周十字星的底部，形成了个短 ...

| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年6月23日 | | | | 寇帶斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 6月20日 | 6月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13950 | 13950 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | 50 | -80 | 130 | 162.50% | | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13750 | 13850 | -100 | -0.72% | 元/吨 | | 非标价差 | -150 | -180 | 30 | 16.67% | | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 48.05 | 48.30 | -0.25 | -0.52% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 57.75 | 57.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶 ...

本报告导读： 2024 年产销同比下滑幅度收窄，2025Q1 开始逐步恢复。成本增加叠加煤价下跌，成为 2025Q1影响利 润的核心因素，预计 2025年全年盈利端同比压力有所缓解。 成本增加叠加煤价下跌，2025Q1 影响利润的核心因素，预计2025Q2盈利端同比压力有所缓解。2024 年 吨煤售价645.6 元/吨，同比-11.24%；吨煤成本391 元/吨，同比+12%；吨煤毛利255 元/吨，同 比-32.9%。2025Q1 吨煤售价543 元/吨，同比-21.26%/环比-10%；吨煤成本340 元/吨，同比-10%/环 比-21%；吨煤毛利140 元/吨，同比-55%/环比-18.5%。我们认为煤炭价格将迎来拐点，预计全年盈利端 同比压力有所缓解。 后备资源接续无忧。公司 2024 年已取得上马区块探矿权，增加煤炭资源量 8 亿多吨，叠加自有储备资 源，为未来发展提供了有利支撑。公司现有 18 座生产矿井，先进产能达到 4970 万吨/年，单井规模平 均 300 万吨/年，集约化生产水平行业领先，规模效应显著。 公司在建及规划的矿井（如忻峪煤业、元丰矿业、静安煤业、上马矿井等）合计产能约 850 ...

黑色高级分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年06月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 ◼ 逻辑：宏观情绪波动，钢价宽幅震荡； | 2025/6/20 | | 供应 | | （万吨） | | | | 需求 | | （万吨） | | | | 库存 | | | | 现货 | 主力 | 10-01 | 现货 | 盘面 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当周值 | | | 环差 | | 同差 | 当周值 | | | 环差 | 同差 | | 当周值 | | 环差 | 同差 | | 价格 | 基差 | 价差 | 利润 | 利润 | | 铁水 | 242 2 . | | 0 . | 6 | 2 . | 2 | | | | ...