Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Central Financial and Economic Work Conference determined the economic direction. With the improvement of market sentiment boosted by macro - policies, the polyolefin market stopped falling and rebounded. However, the current weak supply - demand fundamentals provide insufficient support for prices [3]. - For PE, the supply is expected to be loose and the demand is weak, with high inventory pressure and limited oil - based cost support. The short - term fundamentals are difficult to be substantially boosted, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - For PP, the supply is expected to remain high, the demand follow - up is insufficient, the inventory level is high, and the cost support is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6557元/吨（+71），PP主力合约收盘价为6254元/吨（+125）；LL华北现货为6500元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6580元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6200元/吨（+0）；LL华北基差为 - 57元/吨（-71），LL华东基差为23元/吨（-71），PP华东基差为 - 54元/吨（-125） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为84.1%（+0.1%），PP开工率为78.3%（+0.7%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为183.5元/吨（-105.5），PP油制生产利润为 - 436.5元/吨（-105.5），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 817.3元/吨（+75.2） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 112.2元/吨（-116.8），PP进口利润为 - 322.4元/吨（-26.9），PP出口利润为 - 10.6美元/吨（+3.4） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为46.4%（-1.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.6%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.9%（+0.3%） [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply side, in December, the overall PE maintenance volume is not high, and the planned maintenance volume in the future is also relatively limited. The PE start - up is expected to continue to rise, and a new 500,000 - ton FDPE device of BASF is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, so the supply pressure is continuous. Demand side, the overall downstream start - up of PE continues to decline, with the agricultural film start - up entering the off - season, and the demand for packaging film also weakening. Inventory side, although the PE social inventory is decreasing, the absolute inventory levels of LL and LD are still high, and the inventory pressure is expected to be large. Cost side, the oil price trend is weak, and the oil - based cost support is relatively limited [3]. - **PP**: Supply side, the previously shut - down enterprises are gradually restarting, the planned maintenance volume is relatively small, and the supply is expected to remain high. Demand side, the downstream demand start - up of BOPP, plastic weaving, etc. is okay, but the downstream replenishment is cautious. Inventory side, the overall inventory level is still high. Cost side, the international oil price is weak, and the cost support of PDH is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Go long on the L05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low; go long on the PP05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low [5]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Short the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The methanol price will fluctuate within a range in the short term, and the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak in the medium to long term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - Methanol prices in many domestic regions increased slightly yesterday. In the northwest main production area, enterprise inventories were at a low level. Downstream and traders had a stronger willingness to replenish at low prices, leading to higher auction transaction prices. The positive sentiment in the futures market drove smooth new - order transactions in the afternoon, and some enterprises stopped selling to support prices, pushing up the spot price. However, downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines, and procurement became more rational after the previous low - price replenishment. The market trend depends on the downstream procurement transactions on Tuesday [1] Supply - Domestic methanol production was 292,325.00, an increase of 300.00; domestic operating rate was 90.10%, an increase of 0.09%; international operating rate remained unchanged at 62.43% [1] Inventory - Arrival volume, enterprise inventory, and port inventory remained unchanged at 37.60, 361,320.00, and 1,349,430.00 respectively [1] Demand - Order backlog remained unchanged at 239,715.00 [1] Cost - The costs of some coal - based methanol production decreased, such as the cost of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol decreased by 10.50 to 2,091.50, and the cost of Shandong coal - based methanol decreased by 10.50 to 2,341.50 [1] Operating Rate - The operating rates of MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, acetic acid, chlorides, MTBE, etc. remained unchanged [1] Associated Product Prices - The prices of some associated products changed slightly, such as the price of methane chloride increased by 20.00 to 1,760.00, and the price of MTBE increased by 10.00 to 4,930.00 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present comprehensive data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals spot - futures prices, and container shipping industry indexes on December 16, 2025, aiming to help investors analyze market trends and potential investment opportunities through detailed numerical comparisons and changes [1][2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads (Doc 1) - **Price Spreads**: Different contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) have specific current - spot price spreads, with values like IF's - 6.46, IH's - 3.27, IC's 1.84, and IM's - 1.08. The spreads show changes compared to the previous day and different percentile positions in historical data [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: There are multiple inter - period spreads such as next month - current month, far month - current month, etc. For example, IF's next month - current month spread is - 17.80, and it also has changes and historical percentile data [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like IC/IF, IC/IH, etc., show different values and changes, with IC/IF at 1.5654 and a change of - 0.0030 [1]. Bond Futures Spreads (Doc 2) - **Basis**: TS, TF, T, and TL basis have specific values on December 15, 2025, with TS basis at 1.6370 and changes compared to the previous day. They also have percentile positions in the data since contract listing [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Each bond futures type has different inter - period spreads such as current quarter - next quarter, etc., with corresponding changes and historical percentile data [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different bond futures types like TS - TF, TS - T, etc., show specific values and changes [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures (Doc 3) - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: Contracts like AU2602, AG2602, etc. have closing prices on December 15, 2025, and corresponding price changes and percentage changes compared to December 12 [3]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold, silver, NYMEX platinum, and palladium futures have closing prices on December 15, 2025, with price changes and percentage changes [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold, silver, and other spot prices have values on December 15, 2025, and price changes and percentage changes [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of different precious metals shows specific values, changes, and historical percentile positions [3]. - **Price Ratios**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver, SHFE gold/silver have values and percentage changes [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield, 2 - year US Treasury yield, etc., have values and percentage changes [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventories of SHFE gold, silver, and COMEX gold, silver, as well as ETF positions of gold and silver, have values and percentage changes [3]. Container Shipping Industry (Doc 5) - **Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route), SCFIS (US - West route), and SCFI comprehensive index have values on different dates, showing price changes and percentage changes [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures contracts like EC2602 (main contract) have prices on December 12 and December 9, with price changes and percentage changes. The basis of the main contract also has specific values and changes [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators in Shanghai, monthly export amount, overseas economic indicators (euro - zone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, US manufacturing PMI), and OECD leading indicators have values and percentage changes [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 16, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data from December 9 to December 15, 2025 shows that the basis on December 15 was - 64.4 yuan/ton, gradually decreasing from - 32.4 yuan/ton on December 9 [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on December 15 was 55.24 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: Inter - month spreads and inter - commodity spreads data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For instance, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of LLDPE is 36 yuan/ton, and on December 15, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2270 yuan/ton [9]. Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of rebar on December 15 was 176.0 yuan/ton [20]. - Inter - month spreads and inter - commodity spreads data are also provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar is - 15.0 yuan/ton, and on December 15, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 407 [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of copper on December 15 was - 180 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for LME non - ferrous metals on December 15, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (4.39), and the import loss was (1202.68) yuan/ton [33]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on December 15 was - 110 yuan/ton [42]. - Inter - month spreads data for multiple agricultural products are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 is 38 yuan/ton. - Inter - commodity spreads data such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal are provided. On December 15, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.85 [42]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 9 to December 15, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on December 15 was 6.46 [53]. - Inter - month spreads data for the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter of the above - mentioned stock indices are given. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 160 [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent operation of PTA plants has been stable. Some polyester factories have made phased replenishments, driving the strengthening of the spot basis. The futures market fluctuates with the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - For MEG, at low prices, some domestic ethylene - based MEG plants have reduced their loads, and the weekly start - up rate has dropped below 70%. With the restart and load increase of Zhengdaikai, the start - up rate will moderately recover. The arrival of foreign MEG ships this week has returned to normal, and the upward trend of port inventory can be moderately alleviated. Fundamentally, MEG shows a loose balance due to supply contraction this month, but there is a lack of confidence and obvious driving force in the market under the medium - and long - term inventory accumulation expectation. It is expected that MEG will be adjusted at a low level in the near future, and attention should be paid to the cost side and plant changes [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - No relevant content provided 2.每日提示 - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, the spot basis was relatively strong, and individual polyester factories replenished their stocks. Individual mainstream suppliers offered far - term cargoes. The December cargo was mainly traded at a discount of about 20 points to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range at 4600 - 4640. The current mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 20. The spot price is 4615, the 01 contract basis is - 13, and the futures price is at a premium. The PTA factory inventory is 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the ethylene glycol futures opened higher and traded in a narrow range, and the market negotiation was average. The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated in a narrow range. The spot negotiation and trading this week and next week were carried out at a discount of 10 - 24 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and some traders were actively involved in spot quoting. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market strengthened. Recently arrived cargoes were traded at around 430 - 431 US dollars/ton, and individual traders participated in inquiries. The cargoes for shipment at the end of December and in January were negotiated at 434 - 435 US dollars/ton, and those for shipment at the end of January and in February were negotiated at around 438 - 439 US dollars/ton. The trading volume in the market was weak. The spot price is 3640, the 01 contract basis is - 11, and the futures price is at a premium. The total inventory in the East China region is 75.8 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract is increasing [6]. 3.今日关注 - No relevant content provided 4.基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the EG production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, EG consumption, total demand, port inventory, and inventory change from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - Price: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers from December 11 to December 15, 2025, as well as the changes in basis, spreads, and processing fees [12]. 5.影响因素总结 - Positive factors: A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance as planned recently, and it is expected to restart around the end of January. A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South China has been shut down for maintenance today, with a preliminary planned maintenance period of about 10 days [8]. - Negative factors: A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has been restarted after a short - term shutdown in late November. A 260,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has been restarted as planned last weekend after a shutdown in early October [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that PP will continue to perform weakly. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. Although the PDH profit is at a new low, the upstream has locked in raw materials and made some pre - sales, so the willingness to cut production is not strong. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under the deep - loss PDH profit [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 6254, with a daily increase of 2.04%. The trading volume was 806,493, and the open interest changed by 193,360. The 01 - contract basis was - 154 (compared to - 49 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 76 (compared to - 39 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6040 yuan/ton, 6100 yuan/ton, and 6230 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The futures market rebounded slightly, some coal - chemical plant prices were raised, and the cost support for goods strengthened. Some wire drawing offers from traders increased slightly, while most non - standard prices remained stable. The daily trading volume improved partially [1]. - Some PDH devices are planned to shut down in January, but the scale is not large for now. The year - end demand lacks elasticity, and the industry's willingness to hold goods is limited under the continuous decline, putting pressure on the basis. The PP US dollar market prices partially declined, overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for offering to China is low, and downstream procurement remains based on rigid demand with difficult trading improvement [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Cost**: Crude oil is expected to fluctuate narrowly, providing limited support for the PP cost side. Sentiment was slightly repaired on Friday night due to approaching position limits and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's mention of resisting "involution - style" competition [2]. - **Supply**: There will be no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game between existing supply and demand [2]. - **Demand**: Downstream new orders are weakening, and downstream factories' procurement remains cautious, resulting in weak demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of PP is 0 [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report LLDPE has limited upside potential, and the basis has weakened again. The supply and demand pressure caused by high existing production capacity and weakening demand should be noted in the medium term [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2601 on the previous day was 6557, with a daily increase of 1.09%, trading volume of 619,069, and an open - interest change of 9,111. The 01 - contract basis was - 57 (previous day: 4), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 35 (previous day: - 10) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The previous day's spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6500, 6650, and 6500 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of +10, +50, and 0 yuan/ton compared to the day before [1]. Spot News As the position - limit approaches, the futures market rebounds, and coal - chemical prices rise slightly. However, some ex - factory prices of petrochemical and oil companies are lowered, traders lack confidence, and the industry's willingness to hold goods is poor under weakening demand. The basis weakens again, and the destocking of warehouse receipts stops. The offering volume from the Middle East and the US decreases, and the prices are at a premium to the domestic market. Shipments from the Middle East and the US are delayed, and more arrivals are expected in Q1 2026 [1]. Market Condition Analysis - **Raw Materials and Supply - demand**: Crude oil prices fluctuate, the monomer segment is weakly stable, and the supply profit of PE ethylene and ethane is compressed. The PE market oscillates at a low level. The demand for downstream agricultural films weakens, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. After the recent price decline, the willingness of the middle and lower reaches to hold goods weakens. The upstream offers discounts to sell at the end of the year, and the factory inventory decreases slightly, with a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, and the current maintenance plan in December is neutral [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a seasonal reduction in domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories from December to January 2025, with uncertainties in soybean meal supply in Q1 2026. The overall market is expected to be stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term [6][7] - Delays in customs clearance in China are favorable for near - month contracts and positive spreads. Weak US soybean exports, lack of significant weather - related speculation in South America, and expected pressure on Brazilian premiums suggest that the M05 contract may be relatively weak [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) varies by region, with values such as 97 in Dalian, 37 in Tianjin, 32 in Rizhao, etc. on December 12 [4] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong is 113, with a change of 74 [4] - Various spread data are provided, including the RM1 - 5 spread of 64 with a change of - 14, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread (spot in the east) of 300 and (main contract) of 672 with a change of - 2 [4][5] 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The USDA's current forecast for 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 2.9 billion bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). Brazilian new - crop production in 25/26 is predicted to reach 1.776 billion tons [6] - As of November 29, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 86%, compared to 78% last week, 90% last year, and a five - year average of 84.4%. As of November 26, the Argentine 2025/26 soybean planting progress was 36% [6] - Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, major oil - mill soybean inventory, feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and major oil - mill soybean meal inventory are presented, showing that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, and the soybean meal inventory is being depleted slowly [5][7] 3.3 Supply, Demand, and Market Outlook - In terms of supply, US soybean yield may be further adjusted downwards due to less rainfall in the production area from August to September, and there is uncertainty in exports. Brazilian and Argentine planting progress and future precipitation conditions are also mentioned. In China, the supply of soybean meal in Q1 2026 is uncertain [6][7] - On the demand side, high livestock and poultry inventories in the short - term support feed demand, but low breeding profits and national policies may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, with normal downstream trading and good提货 performance recently [7] - Overall, the market is expected to be near - strong and far - weak, with customs clearance delays in China being a positive factor for near - month contracts and positive spreads [7]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish investment view on LPG, indicating that the current market news is generally "bullish for中下游 PP and propylene, and bearish for upstream crude oil and LPG." The crude oil fundamentals remain loosely and weakly, and the near - term LPG prices are expected to continue the high - level decline trend [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market shows a divergence in domestic and international trends, with an overall supply - demand imbalance in the domestic market. The supply has increased due to the production increase of some refineries in South and East China last week. Although the winter heating demand is gradually improving, the economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material has weakened, and the downstream olefin demand is sluggish. The inventory has increased, and the price is expected to continue to decline [5][6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The LPG futures main contract trended downward, with a fluctuation range of 4,180 - 4,330 yuan/ton. The international LPG price was still strong, but the international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the propylene futures price was weak. The domestic PDH plant profit continued to lose money, and the market supply exceeded demand. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 195 yuan/ton, in South China was 200 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 180 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was in Shandong [6]. 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 52.29 million tons, including 21.87 million tons of civil gas, 19.35 million tons of industrial gas, and 17.12 million tons of ether - after C4. The LPG arrival volume was 283.44 million tons. Some refineries in South and East China increased production last week, so the supply increased. There is no news of refinery start - up or shutdown this week, but there are both some plant shutdowns and start - ups, and the domestic commodity volume is expected to change little [5]. 3.3 Demand - The winter heating demand is gradually coming, and the LPG combustion demand is gradually improving, with a slow recovery in demand. However, the absolute value of the PN spread has narrowed, the economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material has weakened, and the substitution effect is limited due to the weak downstream olefin demand. The domestic propylene market has a serious oversupply, and the high - load operation of PDH plants suppresses the procurement demand for raw material propane. The European and American blenders have a strong demand for MTBE driven by the structural shortage of gasoline in the Atlantic Basin. The domestic isobutane dehydrogenation plants are operating at a high start - up rate, and although the profit loss has increased with the rise of raw material prices, the rigid demand is relatively resilient [5]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was 201.00 million tons, and the port inventory was 215.20 million tons. Affected by the short - term weakness of international crude oil, the prices in various regions rose first and then fell. Coupled with the supply increase in some regions, downstream buyers chose to wait and see, which led to an increase in factory inventory. At the port, the arrival of ships increased, and the inventory of some ships arriving at the end of last week was reflected this week, with sufficient imported resources. With the continuous arrival of ships, the port shipping volume increased, but the port still showed an inventory accumulation trend [5]. 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was 195 yuan/ton in East China, 200 yuan/ton in South China, and 180 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume was 5,476 lots, an increase of 0 lots, and the lowest deliverable location was in Shandong [5][6]. 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The start - up rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were not fully filled in the data. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and Shandong alkylation were - 555 yuan/ton, - 172 yuan/ton, and - 484 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.27, and the PG main - secondary monthly difference was - 1.13% (84 yuan/ton). In the fourth quarter, the gas price was firm, while the crude oil returned to a bearish trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread showed a weakening trend [5]. 3.8 Other Factors - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 and slightly narrowed the supply surplus forecast. OPEC+ slightly increased crude oil production in November, and OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, stabilizing the real estate market, and implementing a special action to boost consumption. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the expectation of further rate cuts in the future has increased, with Morgan and Citi unanimously expecting another rate cut in January [5]. 3.9 Investment Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, pay attention to the PG3 - 4 reverse spread, long PG and short SC, and long PP and short PG [5].

Group 1: Sugar Investment Rating Not provided Core View The sugar market is expected to remain weak next week due to a lack of positive factors and weak price rebound. The supply outlook is loose, which restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices. The increase in supply has led to a decline in futures prices and a subsequent drop in basis sugar prices. [2] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar futures contracts have generally declined, while the ICE raw sugar主力 has increased slightly. The main contract's open interest has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts remains unchanged. [2] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices have decreased, and the basis has changed. The price of imported Brazilian sugar has increased, and the spread between imported and domestic sugar has also changed. [2] - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative production and sales of sugar have decreased year - on - year, and the national sales rate has declined, while the sales rate in Guangxi has increased. Industrial inventories in most regions have decreased, except for an increase in Yunnan. Sugar imports have increased. [2] Group 2: Cotton Investment Rating Not provided Core View Internationally, US cotton maintains a volatile market. Domestically, the market expects a decline in Xinjiang's planting area next year, with a long - term optimistic outlook. However, the downstream industry is weak, and cotton prices face some upward pressure. [5] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of some cotton futures contracts has declined slightly, and the open interest of the main contract has decreased. The number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts has increased. [5] - **Spot Market**: Some spot prices have increased, and the basis has also changed. [5] - **Industry Situation**: The shortage has increased, industrial inventories have increased slightly, imports have decreased, and the inventory in bonded areas has decreased. The inventory of the textile industry has decreased year - on - year, and the inventory days of yarn and grey cloth have changed. Cotton outbound shipments have increased, while the processing profit of spinning enterprises has decreased. Retail sales and export volumes in the textile and clothing industries have increased. [5] Group 3: Corn Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current grain sales progress is relatively fast, but the effective market circulation of grain is limited. The price is relatively stable in the short term due to factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell and low terminal inventory, but the supply pressure restricts the upward space of corn prices. [7] Summary by Directory - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2601 contract at Jinzhou Port has declined slightly, and the basis has increased. The 1 - 5 spread remains unchanged. The price at Shekou Port remains stable, and the north - south trade profit remains unchanged. The arrival - at - port duty - paid price has decreased slightly, and the import profit has increased. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased significantly, the open interest has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased. [7] - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2601 contract has increased slightly, and the spot prices in Changchun and Weifang remain unchanged. The basis has decreased, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, the 01 - contract spread between starch and corn has increased, and the profit of Shandong starch has increased. The open interest has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [7] Group 4: Oils Investment Rating Not provided Core View For palm oil, there is a risk of further decline after breaking through the 4000 - ringgit support. Dalian palm oil futures are in a weak and volatile adjustment. For soybean oil, the potential reduction in US biodiesel production is negative for CBOT soybean oil, but the rebound of BMD palm oil provides some support. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited, but the decline in basis quotes may be limited in the short term. [10] Summary by Directory - **Palm Oil**: The price of palm oil has declined, and the basis has changed. The import cost has decreased, and the import profit has increased. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [10] - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil remains unchanged, and the basis has increased. The supply of domestic factories is sufficient, and the demand is limited. [10] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of rapeseed oil has increased slightly, and the basis has also changed. [10] Group 5: Pigs Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of pigs is stable, and the downward support has increased with the increase in southern curing demand. However, there is great uncertainty in the December - January market due to factors such as the increase in the epidemic and the potential entry of secondary fattening, and the overall supply pressure is still large. [12] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of some pig futures contracts have increased, and the 3 - 5 spread has changed. The open interest of the main contract has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [12] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in different regions have changed, and the slaughter volume of sample points has increased. The weekly prices of pork strips remain unchanged, while the prices of piglets and sows have decreased slightly. The average slaughter weight has decreased slightly, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and purchased pigs have increased. The number of fertile sows has decreased. [12] Group 6: Eggs Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg market is expected to be in a state of oversupply this week. Egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downward space is limited due to insufficient terminal demand. [15] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg futures contracts have declined, and the basis has increased. The 1 - 2 spread has decreased. [15] - **Spot Market**: The price of eggs in the producing areas has decreased slightly, the price of egg - laying chicken seedlings has decreased, the price of culled chickens has increased, the egg - to - feed ratio has increased, and the breeding profit has increased. [15] - **Industry Situation**: The number of culled chickens has decreased slightly, and the number of newly - laying hens is still low. The inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and the inventories at all links in the industry chain need to be digested. The terminal consumption is lower than expected, and the downstream purchasing sentiment has declined. [15] Group 7: Meal Investment Rating Not provided Core View US soybeans lack trading highlights, and the market is not optimistic about the medium - and long - term price of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, but there is a sentiment of supporting prices in the market, and attention should be paid to the performance of the 1 - 5 positive spread. [17] Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal has increased, the futures price has increased slightly, and the basis has increased. The import crushing profit has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [17] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of rapeseed meal remains unchanged, the futures price has increased, and the basis has decreased. The import crushing profit has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts is zero. [17] - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin remains unchanged, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has increased. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remains unchanged, the futures price has decreased slightly, and the basis has increased. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [17]