老凤祥B 老凤祥 中国黄金 潮宏基 周六福 周生生 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 3.63 0.00 0.06% 0.22% 0.22% 0.22% 0.06% 0.06% 0.33% 0.33% 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.63 3.63 3.64 3.64 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 0 1万 2万 3万 摘要9月2日金价大幅上涨，来到了1040元/克附近，2025年9月2日，各大品牌黄金零售价格大幅上涨， 据金投网统计，目前是周生生价格最高，为1041元/克（工费另计），中国黄金（600916）价格最低， 为819元/克（工费另计），投资金条价格每克817.20-820.50元左右，白银价格9.29元/克。 1.国际贵金属行情 9月2日金价大幅上涨，来到了1040元/克附近，2025年9月2日，各大品牌黄金零售价格大幅上涨，据金 投网统计，目前是周生生价格最高，为1041元/克（工费另计），中国黄金价格最低，为819元/克（工 费另计），投资金条价格每克817.20-820.50元左右，白银价格9.29元/克。 市场对美联储在9月降息25个基点的预期增 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be volatile and stronger in the short - term, fluctuate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long - term. The core logic includes increased short - term risk - aversion due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising stagflation risks in the US economy, along with a rebound in Fed rate - cut expectations. Gold's risk - aversion, monetary, and commodity attributes also support these trends [1]. - The trend of gold prices serves as an anchor for silver prices. Currently, there is a slight reduction in CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF holdings in terms of capital, and a slight increase in silver's visible inventory [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and stronger, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.21%. The market now expects the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to have soared from around 40% before the non - farm payrolls report to over 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts this year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - **Related Data**: - **Price**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $3516.10 per ounce, up $105.40 (3.09%) from last week; London gold was at $3474.90 per ounce, up $140.65 (4.22%) from last week. Shanghai gold's main contract closed at 804.32 yuan per gram, up 2.97% from last week [2]. - **Basis, Spread, and Ratio**: The spread between Shanghai gold's main contract and London gold was - 5.96 yuan per gram, down 25% from last week; the gold - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 85.64, down 2.38% from last week [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold positions were 443,760 lots, down 0.54% from last week; Shanghai gold's main contract positions were 138,624 lots, down 20.60% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged from last week [2]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai gold futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 120,616 lots, an increase of 624 lots; the top 10 totaled 155,263 lots, an increase of 1,298 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 13,767 lots, a decrease of 550 lots; the top 10 totaled 21,190 lots, a decrease of 672 lots [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - loss/take - profit are crucial [6]. - **Related Data**: - **Price**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $40.75 per ounce, up $2.20 (5.71%) from last week; London silver was at $40.58 per ounce, up $2.57 (6.76%) from last week. Shanghai silver's main contract closed at 9,824 yuan per kilogram, up 5.02% from last week [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The spread between Shanghai silver's main contract and London silver was 525.93 yuan per gram, down 13.70% from last week; the basis of Shanghai silver's main contract was - 24 yuan per kilogram [6]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver positions were 158,630 lots, up 0.10% from last week; Shanghai silver's main contract positions were 4,961,835 lots, up 8.88% from last week. The total visible inventory was 42,794 tons, up 0.90% from last week [6]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai silver futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 115,138 lots, a decrease of 681 lots; the top 10 totaled 159,406 lots, an increase of 610 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 49,270 lots, a decrease of 354 lots; the top 10 totaled 82,445 lots, an increase of 758 lots [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points from last time; the Fed's total assets are $6,654.234 billion, down $1.5239 billion from last time [8]. - **Economic Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.54%, unchanged; the US dollar index is 97.70, down 0.52% from last week; the inflation data shows that the year - on - year CPI is 2.70%, unchanged; the unemployment rate is 4.20%, up 0.10 percentage points from last time [8][11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2,300.41 tons, up 0.08% from last time; the US's are 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's are 36,268.07 tons, unchanged [11][12]. - **Fed Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in September 2025 is over 89.8%, and the probability distribution of rate cuts in subsequent meetings is also provided [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The U.S. dollar index rebounds, putting pressure on copper prices. Although currently in the off - season of consumption, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities boosts copper demand. However, affected by U.S. tariff policies and domestic subsidy policies, the overall demand in the second half of the year is expected to be relatively weak year - on - year. With overseas trading of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and independence issues, the dollar index decline supports the non - ferrous metal market. The domestic copper supply is expected to be tight, and demand is about to enter the peak season. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - China's imports of copper ore concentrates in July were about 2.56 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase, and port inventories of concentrates also rebounded. After the smelter processing fees showed an upward inflection point, they continued to decline in recent periods. The sulfuric acid price has reached a high, and its profit - compensation for smelters will decline. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons, and domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline month - on - month. After the copper tariff is implemented, imported copper will return to the domestic market, squeezing the domestic market. As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons. Although in the off - season, domestic power grid investment drives demand, but external demand will weaken in the second half of the year, and domestic demand has also been advanced [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low, rose during the day, then fell back, and closed at 79,660 yuan/ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 200 yuan/ton, and in South China was 40 yuan/ton. On September 1, 2025, the LME official price was $9,896/ton, and the spot premium was - $91.5/ton [4] Supply Side - As of August 29, the latest data showed that the spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - $41.25/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.12 cents/pound [7] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 19,500 tons, an increase of 121 tons from the previous period. As of September 1, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 82,900 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 158,800 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 277,800 short tons, an increase of 2,617 short tons from the previous period [11]

从黄金 4 小时图来看，昨日金价在 3490 一线承压，后续维持震荡整理，今日早间价格拉升至 3500 上方。目前MACD 指标双线仍处于金叉运行状态，均线 簇呈现多头排列，表明多头暂掌走势主导权。需重点关注的是，金价站上 3500 上方后出现大幅回撤，若下方跌破 3470 一线，趋势将转向弱势。黄金突破 3440 美元前期阻力后加速上涨，连续六日收涨凸显多头动能强劲。日线 RSI 指标已接近轻微超买，提示短期或出现整理或小幅回调。若金价无法稳3500 美 元上方，可能回踩 3475-3440 美元区间寻求支撑。只要金价维持在 3440 美元之上，中期上升趋势便依然有效，反之则将终结这波反弹。综合来看，黄金今 日短线操作思路上贺博生建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注3500-3510一线阻力，下方短期重点关注3465-3455一线支撑。 原油最新行情趋势分析： 原油消息面解析：周二亚洲交易时段，国际原油价格出现反弹。布伦特原油上涨至68.35美元，WTI则升至64.82美元。由于美国劳工节假期，周一WTI期货 未能结算。根据市场测算，近期乌克兰袭击已导致俄罗斯约110万桶/日的炼油能力停产，相当 ...

新华财经查询发现，国内金饰价格也有较大幅度增长，周生生报价为每克1041元，较前日上涨16元，老 庙黄金报价每克1034元，单日上涨了11元，周大福则报每克1037元，单日上涨10元。 美联储降息预期升温及市场避险情绪共振，黄金、白银2日延续上一交易日涨势。现货黄金升破3500美 元关口，刷新历史新高，一度触及每盎司3508.69美元。 来源：新华财经 ...

国际现货黄金价格创新高 卜晓明 国际现货黄金价格2日一度突破每盎司3500美元，创历史新高。路透社2日分析，这主要受美元走弱以及 美国联邦储备委员会9月降息预期影响。 国际现货黄金价格当天盘中一度触及每盎司3508.69美元。路透社数据显示，今年以来，金价已累计上 涨大约33%。 美联储降息预期促使美元指数跌至一个多月来最低点。据芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具，交易员 预计美联储在9月17日会议上降息25个基点的可能性为90%。 与此同时，特朗普数月来一直批评美联储及其主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔未能降低利率，最近又因美联储华盛 顿总部的翻修工程耗资巨大将矛头指向鲍威尔。特朗普8月25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解除美联 储理事莉萨·库克的职务。库克8月28日就被解职一事向华盛顿特区联邦法院提起诉讼。 英国《金融时报》2日援引欧洲最大私人市场投资公司之一合众集团高管的话报道，包括主权财富基金 的数家亚洲和中东顶级投资机构正要求完全避开美国资产；他们对特朗普政府政策的冲击感到担忧。合 众集团高管说，出于对关税或其他潜在贸易或投资限制的担忧，一些基金要求彻底规避在美国的风险敞 口。 美国彭博新闻社2日援引瑞银集团策略师约 ...

来源：中国商报 中国商报（记者 马文博）今天A股迎来调整。截至收盘，上证指数跌0.45%，深证成指跌2.14%，创业板指跌2.85%，北证50涨0.4%。沪深京三市 全天成交额为29124亿元，较上一日放量1348亿元。全市场超4000只个股下跌。在板块题材上，CPO、半导体、铜缆高速连接等算力硬件股跌幅居 前，银行、贵金属、peek材料、电力、工业母机板块涨幅居前。 01 银行股上涨 今天，银行板块逆市走强。 截至8月底，上市银行半年报已经披露完毕。半年报数据显示，42家A股上市银行上半年共实现营业收入超2.9万亿元，同比增长超过1%；实现归 母净利润1.1万亿元，同比增长0.8%。 其中，工行、建行、农行、中行上半年净利润均超过千亿元，六大商业银行的不良贷款率都保持在低位。 湘财证券分析，上市银行整体营业收入、归母净利润同比增速分别由一季度的-1.7%、-1.2%升至上半年的1.0%、0.8%，双双由负转正。 中泰证券发布的研报称，银行股经营模式和投资逻辑从"顺周期"到"弱周期"：市场强时，银行股短期偏弱；经济偏平淡期间，银行股高股息持续 具有吸引力，继续看好银行股的稳健性和持续性。 02 贵金属板块继续 ...

新华财经北京9月2日电两大基本面利多驱动下，周二（9月2日）亚洲交易时段，国际现货金价强势冲高 并突破3500美元／盎司关口，短短一周涨超100美元，再创历史新高。 另从美元信用方面来看，近期美联储理事库克被美国总统特朗普免职，引发了市场对美联储独立性的质 疑，进一步削弱了市场对美元资产的信心。 对于黄金市场而言，在全球贸易摩擦未见根本缓和，从而带来再通胀预期，以及各主要经济体宽松的货 币政策，将令黄金继续受益。与此同时，全球地缘政治风险将继续助推市场的避险需求，尤其是中东局 势继续恶化、俄乌冲突持续。此外，全球央行继续增持黄金，不仅仅是为了外汇储备的多元化，更是对 冲美元信用下降的风险。黄金作为传统的避险资产，其长期需求仍将持续得到市场的追捧，牛市行情仍 有望延续。 展望本周，市场关注焦点除地缘政治局势进展外，周五美国即将公布的8月非农就业数据，也将对本周 黄金走势产生一定影响。从技术面来看，黄金一举突破前期重要压力3450~3455美元／盎司区域并再度 冲击3500美元／盎司整数关口，表明短期上行动能较为强劲，上方关注3550~3570美元／盎司区域压力 强度；下行关注3450~3455美元／盎司区间支撑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is almost certain, and the transition from the traditional consumption off - season to the peak season supports copper prices. With the expectation of the domestic traditional consumption off - season turning to the peak season and the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and mainly lay out long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [1][3]. - The basis of Shanghai copper is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spreads are all positive and within a reasonable range. Due to the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, the increase in the domestic electrolytic copper maintenance capacity in September, and the expectation of the traditional consumption off - season turning to the peak season, but the continuous accumulation of the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, it is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai copper [7]. - The spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are negative and at a relatively low level, and the ratio of Shanghai - LME copper price is between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years. Considering factors such as Trump's import tariffs suppressing potential demand, the continuous accumulation of LME and COMEX electrolytic copper inventories, the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, and the continuous tight supply - demand expectation of global copper concentrates, it is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Aspect - Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the US PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate in the consumer sector. Fed Chairman Powell said that the change in the risk balance point may require policy adjustment due to the weak supply and demand in employment, which has increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. However, attention should still be paid to the new non - farm payrolls in the US in August and the consumer price index CPI on September 5th and 11th [2]. Upstream Aspect - **Copper Concentrate**: Newmont's Canadian Red Chris copper mine suspended operations due to a collapse accident, and Russia's Nornickel lowered its copper production forecast for 2025. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in the domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume in September. The domestic copper concentrate import index is negative and has decreased compared with last week. The copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volume of world (Chinese) ports has decreased (increased, increased) compared with last week. The domestic copper concentrate import volume in September may increase month - on - month [2][22][23]. - **Scrap Copper**: The negative spread between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may weaken the economy of scrap copper. The scrap copper import window is gradually opening, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in the domestic scrap copper production (import) volume in September, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [2][30]. - **Blister Copper**: The second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system of the Yunnan Zhongyou non - ferrous scrap copper resource recycling base produced anode copper in early July, and the No. 1 smelting furnace of Jiangxi Keli Copper Industry's first - phase 150,000 - ton anode plate project was ignited on August 11th. The weekly processing fees for blister copper in northern (southern) China have decreased. The domestic smelters' rough - smelting maintenance capacity in September may increase month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in the domestic blister copper production (import) volume in September [2][33]. - **Electrolytic Copper**: The domestic electrolytic copper production volume in September may decrease month - on - month. However, due to the expected production of new projects in the future, the import volume of domestic electrolytic copper in September may increase month - on - month [37][40]. Downstream Aspect - **Copper Products Enterprises**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic copper products enterprises in September may increase month - on - month. Specifically, the capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper foils, and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes may decrease month - on - month [46][48]. - **Copper Rods**: The capacity utilization rate of refined (recycled) copper rods has decreased compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has decreased (increased) compared with last week, while the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises in September may increase month - on - month [50][52][54]. - **Copper Wires and Cables**: The capacity utilization rate of copper wires and cables has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased (increased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper wires and cables in September may increase month - on - month [62][63][65]. - **Copper Enameled Wires**: The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of copper enameled wires has decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper enameled wire enterprises have decreased (increased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper enameled wires in September may increase month - on - month [68][69][71]. - **Copper Strips**: The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of copper strips has decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper strip enterprises have increased (decreased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper strips in September may increase month - on - month [75][77][79]. - **Copper Foils**: The capacity utilization rate of copper foils in September may increase month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of electronic circuit (lithium - ion) copper foils in September may decrease (increase) month - on - month [82][83][84]. - **Copper Tubes**: The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises have increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes in September may decrease month - on - month [87][88][89]. - **Brass Rods**: The capacity utilization rate of brass rods has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises have increased (decreased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of brass rods in September may increase month - on - month [93][94][95]. Inventory Aspect - The inventory of Shanghai copper has increased, and the inventory of LME copper has also increased. The inventory of COMEX copper has increased, and the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions has decreased [15][17][19]. - The inventory of copper concentrates in Chinese ports has increased, and the copper concentrate import index is negative and has decreased compared with last week [20][22]. - The inventory of scrap copper in September may decrease, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [30]. - The inventory of blister copper in September may decrease, and the import volume may increase [33]. - The inventory of electrolytic copper in September may increase due to the increase in import volume, although the production volume may decrease [37][40]. Market Structure Aspect - The basis of Shanghai copper is positive, and the monthly spreads are all positive, both within a reasonable range. The spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are negative and at a relatively low level. The spreads between COMEX copper, LME copper, and Shanghai copper are all within a reasonable range [7][8][11]. - The closing prices of near - and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper show a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper show a Contango structure [12].

2025年9月2日 宏源期货研究所 吴金恒 从业资格号：F03100418 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021125 电话：010-82293229 www.hongyuanqh.com 电解镍 ⚫ 策略:等待印尼骚乱平息带来的逢高沽空机会 ⚫ 运行区间：116000-127000 ⚫ 逻辑：供给端，镍矿价格持平，上周到港量下降，港口累库； 国内铁厂亏损幅度缩小，国内铁厂排产下降，印尼铁厂排产 增加，镍铁去库；国内精炼镍排产上升，出口盈利扩大。需 求端，三元材料排产下降，前驱体排产上升；不锈钢厂排产 上升；合金电镀需求稳定。库存端，上周纯镍社会库存减少， 保税区库存持平。综上，美联储降息预期反复，印尼骚乱带 来供应担忧，但纯镍产量高位，供需偏松，预计镍价宽幅震 荡。 ⚫ 风险提示：美联储降息预期变化、需求改善超预期、印尼骚乱升级 镍与不锈钢周报 关注印尼骚乱进展 不锈钢 ⚫ 策略:观望 ⚫ 运行区间：12500-13500 ⚫ 逻辑：基本面来看，不锈钢厂排产上升，不锈钢终端需求 一般。成本端支撑坚挺，镍生铁价格上涨，高碳铬铁价格 上涨。库存方面，总库存去库，300系去库。综上，产量 上升，需求一般，基本面较弱，但 ...