【黄金期货行情表现】 【机构观点】 美联储洛根表示，美联储的政策立场恰到好处，未来几个月如果通胀回落、劳动力市场保持稳定，就不 需要进一步降息。美联储哈马克表示，当前美联储目标利率"接近"中性水平，美联储的利率政策可能 会"在相当长一段时间内"保持不变。评：美联储官员打压降息预期，但是地缘政治及美国政坛扰动依然 存在，不确定性依然较高，长期对黄金存在支撑。黄金中期依然看高位震荡，关注地缘扰动。 【宏观消息】 隔夜贵金属震荡，美国公布12月零售销售月率录得0%低于预测和前值，市场聚焦今晚非农就业数据。 美国财长贝森特称将密切关注伊朗局势发展，对俄乌局势持乐观态度。短期贵金属波动率逐渐下降，节 前保持观望。 2月11日，沪金主力暂报1130.40元/克，涨幅0.56%，今日沪金主力开盘价1122.68元/克，截至目前最高 1132.60元/克，最低1117.00元/克。 ...

继昨日普遍回落后，今日国内金价整体进入盘整阶段，绝大多数品牌价格保持不变。市场主流价格区间稳定在1530-1556元/ 克，其中老庙黄金报价上涨至1562元/克，成为今日最高价；菜百与上海中国黄金维持1530元/克的最低价。今日高低价差扩 大至32元/克。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2026年2月11日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1562 | 元/克 | 12 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1550 | 元/克 | 0 | ה | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1550 | 元/克 | 0 | SV | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1545 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1550 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1552 | 元/克 | 0 | 11 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1550 | 元/克 | 0 | = | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1556 | 元/克 | 1 | 跌 | | ...

周三亚洲交易时段，美元指数（DXY）维持偏弱震荡，价格围绕96.65水平波动，市场整体持观望态度。美国1月 非农就业报告及CPI通胀数据是决定美元短期走势的核心，投资者在数据公布前谨慎操作，令美元指数短线波动 收窄，未形成明确趋势。 美国12月零售销售数据疲软，是压制美元走势的重要因素。数据显示，当月零售总额维持在7350亿美元，同比增 长2.4%，显著低于前值3.3%及市场预期增幅。这一表现反映美国消费市场动能减弱，消费者支出趋缓，数据公布 后美债期货攀升、各期限美债收益率下行，市场对美联储年底前降息的预期升温，持续施压美元。 技术面显示，美元指数日线图呈现短线偏弱震荡，价格在96.65附近整理。2月9日其收盘价为96.735，较前一交易 日大幅下跌，2月10日收盘价96.73延续偏弱走势，印证当前震荡偏弱格局。均线系统上，5日均线在价格上方形成 压制，10日均线提供短期支撑，20日均线在96.40附近构成中期防线。 K线形态上，美元指数近期连续收出小阴线及十字线，显示多空力量暂时均衡，但整体承压明显。指标方面， MACD红色动能柱持续缩短，多头动能减弱，DIFF线略低于DEA线，未出现明确反转信号；KDJ ...

成文日期:20260209 报告周期:日报 ：杜宇（从业资格号：F3075043; 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017815) 黃金期货日报 1期货市场 上海期货交易所黄金期货主力合约(AU.SHF)2026年2月9日开 盘价为 1104 元/克,收盘价为 1125.94 元/克,较前一交易日上涨 3.88%。当日最高价达到 1133.16 元/克,最低价为 1098.38 元/克, 呈现出震荡上行的走势。 2 价格波动分析 从近 5 个交易日的价格走势来看,黄金期货价格呈现震荡整理 态势。2 月 3 日收盘价 1093.78 元/克，2 月 4 日冲高至 1141.7 元/ 克, 随后回调至 2 月 6 日的 1090.12 元/克，2 月 9 日再次反弹至 1125.94 元/克,形成一个类似"W"型底部形态,技术支撑有所加强。 3 市场动态 中国央行黄金储备实现"十五连增",截至 2026 年 1 月末,黄金 储备报 7419 万盎司,较上月增加 4 万盎司,央行持续增持黄金显示 对市场形成利好支撑。国际金价近期经历剧烈波动, 1 月 29 日盘中 突破 5590 美元/盎司历史新高后出现暴跌,2月2日跌至 ...

零售"零增速"之所以引发市场剧烈反应，核心在于消费作为美国经济的核心驱动力，其疲软表现直接引发市场对美国经济增长动能减弱的担忧，进而倒逼美 联储降息预期升温。此前，市场因美国第三季度GDP年化增速上调至4.4%，普遍担忧经济过热可能抑制美联储降息节奏，但此次零售数据的意外低迷，彻 底扭转了这一预期。 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，零售数据公布后，市场对美联储年内降息的定价迅速调整，目前货币市场已将今年三次降息25个基点的概率上调至约30%， 其中两次降息已完全计入价格，年内预期降息幅度约为60个基点。不过，市场仍普遍预期美联储3月会议将维持当前利率不变，截至目前，3月降息25个基点 的概率仍仅为17.7%，维持利率不变的概率达82.3%，6月累计降息25个基点的概率则升至50.4%。 美联储官员近期的表态也为降息预期提供了一定支撑，同时仍保持谨慎基调。旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利2月6日表示，美联储可能仍需进行1到2次降息，以 应对劳动力市场呈现的疲软态势，她强调当前美国劳动者面临物价侵蚀工资、就业机会稀缺的双重压力，若企业需求不及预期，裁员可能增加。美联储副主 席杰斐逊则警告，就业市场存在突然走弱的可能性，但 ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures experienced a strong trend of "bottoming out and rebounding, high-level fluctuations" from February 2 to February 10, with prices significantly rising and stabilizing above the key level of $5000 per ounce [2] - The price reached a low of $4400 per ounce on February 2, followed by a rapid rebound driven by increased geopolitical risk and a weakening dollar, with gold prices peaking at $5100 per ounce on February 10 [2] - The core driving factors for the rebound included heightened geopolitical risk, which directly led to multiple rounds of price increases, and the weakening dollar, which indirectly supported the upward movement of gold prices [2] Group 2 - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, have led to increased military readiness from Iran, with the Iranian Air Force on high alert and prepared to respond decisively to any aggression [4] - Recent meetings between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. in Abu Dhabi have not resolved core issues, with significant disagreements remaining on territorial and post-war arrangements, indicating a challenging path ahead for peace negotiations [6] - The recent airstrikes by Russia on Ukraine, utilizing over 400 drones and nearly 40 missiles, highlight the ongoing conflict and the challenges in achieving a diplomatic resolution [5] Group 3 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has raised margin requirements four times since early January 2026, aiming to increase market participation thresholds and curb excessive speculation, which has drawn criticism from retail investors [8][9] - Analysts suggest that the CME's margin increases are neutral in design, impacting both long and short positions, but may disproportionately affect retail investors who are heavily leveraged, potentially leading to forced liquidations [9] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is seen as a critical variable that could influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, with current predictions suggesting no immediate rate cuts [9][11] Group 4 - The volatility in gold prices is influenced by several factors, including Federal Reserve policies, economic data, market sentiment, and supply-demand dynamics, necessitating careful monitoring by investors [11] - Analysts recommend that investors maintain a balanced approach to gold investments, considering physical gold as a more stable option compared to financial derivatives, especially in the context of rising prices [12] - Predictions indicate that gold prices may continue to experience high-level fluctuations during the upcoming Chinese New Year, with potential for long-term upward movement if interest rate cuts materialize [13]

国债期货日报 | 2026-02-11 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算收 入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优"， 支出力度有望加强，节奏继续前置，对稳增长形成支撑。（4）金融：2025年前12个月份社会融资规模增量累计为 35.6万亿元，比去年同期3.34万亿：12月末，M2余额340.29万亿，同比+8.5%；M1余额115.51万亿，同比+3.8%。 12月末人民币贷款余额同比+6.2%，存款余额同比+8.7%。信贷方面居民与企业融资明显分化，居民贷款减少反映 内生需求仍弱，企业贷款则同比多增，体现政策支持效果逐步显现。（5）央行：2026-02-10，央行以固定利率1.4%、 数量招标方式开展了3114亿元7天的逆回购操作。（6）货币市场：主要期限回购利率1D、7D、14D和1M分别为1.362%、 1.531%、1.604% 和1.551%，回购利率近期回落。 ...

Group 1 - As of February 10, the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, held 1,079.32 tons, a decrease of 0.34 tons from the previous trading day [2] - On February 10, spot gold fluctuated around the $5,000 per ounce mark, with a daily low of $4,965.08 and a high of $5,085.50, closing at $5,025.12, up $63.97 or 1.29% [2] - Market sentiment improved due to the resolution of political uncertainty from Japan's early election results and signs of easing geopolitical tensions, which boosted risk appetite and pressured safe-haven gold [2] Group 2 - Despite the rebound in gold prices, the movement appears driven more by position adjustments rather than new fundamental changes, with volatility still limiting broader market participation [4] - Current market pricing indicates at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by 2026, with the first potentially in June, which could influence gold prices [4] - Technical analysis suggests that gold is nearing a confirmation of a phase bottom, having bottomed around $4,400 in early February and showing signs of regaining bullish momentum [4] Group 3 - The recent high of approximately $5,092 formed a resistance level for gold prices, while a rising trend line starting from $4,400 provides support, currently around $4,800 [5] - If gold can maintain this upward support, it may continue its rebound towards historical highs [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are under pressure due to hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and the exit of speculative funds, with COMEX gold futures down 0.62% to $5047.90 per ounce [1] - The Federal Reserve officials, including Logan and Harmack, indicated that the current policy stance is appropriate, suggesting no further rate cuts are needed if inflation decreases and the labor market remains stable [1] - The performance of gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850) and gold stock ETF (159562), also reflected the downward trend, with declines of 0.4% and 1.34% respectively [1] Group 2 - The market is anticipating a "data storm" ahead of key U.S. employment and inflation data, with non-farm payroll data being a critical test [2] - If the employment data is significantly weaker than expected, it could lead to increased bets on economic recession and faster rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, potentially driving gold prices higher [2] - The upcoming U.S. CPI inflation data is crucial as it directly impacts the Fed's effectiveness in combating inflation; persistent inflation could undermine confidence in rate cut timing, pressuring gold prices [2]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen below the 5400-point mark, indicating a significant pullback after previous gains in sectors like internet platforms and semiconductors[1] - The market is experiencing a "cold spring" with reduced trading volumes and profit-taking behavior observed across various sectors[1] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 3.80% year-on-year[5] - Retail sales have shown a modest increase of 0.90% year-on-year[5] - Exports have risen by 6.60% year-on-year[5] - M2 money supply growth stands at 8.54%[5] External Factors - Recent U.S. economic data, including non-farm payrolls and service sector PPI, exceeded expectations, leading to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve[1] - Domestic institutions are showing a strong demand for profit-taking to manage uncertainties post-holiday[1] Asset Allocation Trends - Southbound capital has shifted from high-growth tech stocks to high-dividend assets like telecommunications and banking[1] - The short-term support level for the market is projected to be between 5100-5250 points, coinciding with the 250-day moving average[1] Commodity and Currency Movements - The latest crude oil inventory is reported at 44,684 million tons, an increase of 44,935 million tons from the previous week[3] - The dollar long position has decreased to 16,610 contracts, down by 1,335 contracts[3]