Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump's strong statements regarding Greenland have heightened geopolitical tensions, which resonate with the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a sustained increase in gold prices [1] - Trump emphasized the strategic importance of Greenland for national security and mentioned various options being evaluated by his administration, including direct purchase and military presence expansion [1] - Analysts noted that rising geopolitical uncertainties have reinforced market risk aversion, providing additional support for safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 2 - The latest U.S. employment data showed a non-farm payroll increase of only 50,000 in December, below the market expectation of 66,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% with a month-on-month wage growth of 0.3% [2] - This combination of data is perceived to provide policy space for the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts in early 2026, reinforcing market expectations for a cooling labor market [2] - Analysts indicated that the slowdown in employment growth, a slight drop in unemployment, and a weaker dollar collectively support gold prices, although inflation persistence may slow the rate cut pace [2] Group 3 - Despite short-term risks, the market remains optimistic about gold's mid-term outlook, with expectations that weaker-than-expected non-farm data strengthens bullish logic for gold [3] - Analysts predict that gold prices may trade in the range of $4,550 to $4,600 in the short term, with a breakthrough above $4,500 potentially opening up space to challenge historical highs [3] - As of the last close, spot gold rose by 0.72% to $4,509.73 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced significant volatility since the beginning of the year, with prices reaching a historical high of $82.744 per ounce on January 6, followed by a sharp decline due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual weight adjustment, which reduced the increase from 15% to 4% since 2026. However, buying interest has led to a rebound, with prices around $78.8 per ounce as of January 9 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a widely used benchmark in the commodity investment field, had an asset scale nearing $109 billion as of October 2025. The annual weight adjustment period for 2026 is from January 8 to 14, with silver's weight in the index reduced from 9% to just below 4%, leading to significant selling pressure [5]. - Citigroup estimates that the total sell-off for both gold and silver will be around $7 billion, with silver's asset management scale (AUM) at $12.9 billion and a target of $6 billion [5]. - Morgan Stanley has quantified the sell-off pressure on silver for 2026, indicating it will be more significant than in 2025, with silver facing the heaviest selling pressure compared to gold [5]. Group 2: Seasonal Trends and Technical Adjustments - January is traditionally a month of intense market dynamics for gold, with an 80% probability of price increases during the last ten trading days of the previous year and the first twenty of the new year. However, the technical sell-off due to index weight adjustments may counteract this seasonal trend [6]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has raised margin requirements for precious metals multiple times, with the latest adjustment on January 8, aimed at ensuring adequate collateral coverage amid market volatility [6][7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Positioning - Some investors are positioning themselves for a decline in silver prices, with analysts from TD Securities establishing short positions, anticipating significant selling pressure due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index's reweighting [10]. - Despite recent volatility, the overall sentiment for the precious metals sector in 2026 remains optimistic, with analysts suggesting that any weakness in silver could present buying opportunities [11][12]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The World Silver Institute reports an average annual supply-demand gap of over 130 million ounces since 2021, totaling nearly 800 million ounces, which is equivalent to two years of global mine production. This gap is being filled by depleting inventories, which are at a ten-year low across major markets [14]. - The macroeconomic environment, including dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and new regulations in India that may boost silver demand, suggests that silver still has potential for strength in 2026, despite short-term volatility [13][14].

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm employment growth in December was below expectations, with a total increase of 50,000 jobs compared to the forecast of 65,000 jobs, marking the weakest annual performance since the pandemic [1] - The unemployment rate in December was reported at 4.4%, slightly better than the expected 4.5% [1] - The total non-farm employment increase for the year was 584,000, the weakest annual growth since the significant job losses during the COVID-19 pandemic [3] Employment Data - The October non-farm employment figure was revised down from a loss of 105,000 to a loss of 173,000, while November's figure was adjusted from an increase of 64,000 to an increase of 56,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 76,000 jobs for November and December combined [1][3] - The three-month moving average employment data has entered negative territory, indicating a significant decline in labor market momentum [1][3] Sector Performance - The private sector showed weak employment growth, with manufacturing jobs continuing to decline [3] - The healthcare sector was a primary driver of job creation, adding 21,000 jobs, although this was below the average monthly increase of 34,000 jobs in 2023 [3] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month, with the previous value revised to 0.2% [4] - Over the past 12 months, wages have grown by 3.8%, outpacing inflation by approximately 1 percentage point [4] Market Reaction - Following the employment data release, U.S. stock futures saw a short-term rise, with the Nasdaq futures up by 0.43%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.33%, and Dow futures up by 0.28% [5] - U.S. Treasury bonds fell, and the dollar index experienced a short-term decline [5] - Spot gold prices rose, reaching $4,490 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.30% [6]

Group 1 - Japan's household spending in November 2025 surged by 6.2% month-on-month, reversing a 3.5% decline in October, and showed a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, compared to a 2.9% decline in October [1] - The strong spending data supports hawkish views within the Bank of Japan, potentially leading to an increase in neutral interest rates and the tightening of monetary policy [1] - Private consumption accounts for approximately 55% of Japan's GDP, indicating that robust consumer spending could drive demand-pull inflation, reinforcing the central bank's stance on tightening [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is expected to significantly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in March 2026, with economists predicting an increase of 60,000 jobs in December [2] - The ISM services PMI rose from 52.6 in November to 54.4 in December, indicating resilience in the U.S. economy and reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in March [2] - The expectation of continued rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, combined with a potentially dovish stance from the new Federal Reserve chair, remains a key factor influencing the medium-term outlook for the USD/JPY exchange rate [2] Group 3 - Technically, the USD/JPY is currently above the 50-day (155.22) and 200-day (151.56) exponential moving averages (EMA), indicating a bullish tendency; however, the prevailing bearish fundamentals are overshadowing this technical signal [3] - A break below the 50-day moving average and the key support level of 155 could accelerate downward momentum, with the 200-day moving average serving as significant support [3] - If the exchange rate consistently falls below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, it would further reinforce a medium-term bearish price trend [3]

在风云变幻的金融市场,每一次关键数据的发布都如同一颗投入湖面的石子,而美国非农就业报告更是其中的"重磅炸弹",牵动着全球投资者的神经。1月9日,高 盛就即将发布的美国2025年12月份非农就业报告给出了前瞻性分析,其核心观点直指:数据需"大幅意外"才能撼动美联储4月降息预期。这一论断背后,蕴含着 怎样的市场逻辑与经济信号? 高盛前瞻:非农数据"波澜不惊"难改降息预期 高盛在致客户的研究报告中,对即将到来的非农就业报告进行了细致解读。高盛预计,这份非农的就业人数增长量约为7万人,与普遍预期基本一致。尽管非正 式的市场"私下预测"暗示存在小幅上行风险,但高盛坚定认为,一份接近预期的结果将强化而非打乱现有的宏观经济叙事。 当前,市场对于美联储的政策预期已形成较为稳固的共识。市场目前定价美联储今年将进行两次25个基点的降息,首次25个基点的降息预计在4月下旬左右。高 盛进一步强调,需要劳动力数据出现"相当戏剧性"的上行或下行意外,才能显著地将这一降息时点提前或推后。这就好比一艘在平静海面上航行的巨轮,非农数 据只有掀起足够大的"风浪",才能改变其既定的航向。 来源：壹点文明 然而,金融市场总是充满了不确定性,非农就业 ...

今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.68%，沪银主力收跌0.90%，铂金主力收涨1.11%，钯金主力收涨涨6.01%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，特朗普政府 正在讨论获取格陵兰岛的方案，包括军事选项。美国抓捕马杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国去年12月 "小非农"温和复苏。美国11月职位空缺降至14个月新低，表明劳动力需求减弱。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年 初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美 联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或 到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯 金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤资金面，彭博大宗商 品指数 (BCOM)和高盛商品指数 (GSCI)将启动年度 ...

1月9日，昨日周四我们认为，由于委内瑞拉局势逐渐被市场消化，以及临近美国非农数据公布，一些投 资者选择获利了结，令黄金涨势遇阻，展开高位震荡调整，短期技术面也显示，黄金在反弹遇阻后存在 调整需求，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注4415和4400美元，上方压力关注4455和4475美元。 从之后的走势看，昨日周四欧盘盘中，黄金短线震荡承压，最低跌至4407美元，企稳4400美元整数位置 上方，美盘开盘后，黄金震荡回升，临近收盘时，涨至4479美元遇阻，收复日内全部跌幅；周五开盘， 黄金小幅冲高4484美元遇阻，回落4453美元企稳后，黄金于亚欧盘中，基本保持4460到4480美元区间高 位震荡，目前交投于4473美元附近。总体来看，黄金冲高4500美元遇阻后，在我们给出的4400美元支撑 上方企稳，保持高位震荡调整，走势基本符合预期。 Wolfinance星级分析师认为，上周末由于美国逮捕委内瑞拉总统，令市场避险情绪显著升温，加强黄金 避险买盘，推动金价在周初大涨，此后随着委内瑞拉局势逐渐被市场消化，以及临近美国非农数据，一 些投资者选择获利了结，黄金冲高遇阻，展开高位震荡调整。目前市场焦点集中在晚间的美国非 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% with no new rate adjustment announced, while signaling a significant rate cut of 150 basis points in 2026, which is expected to create approximately one million jobs without triggering inflation rebound [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has been steadily shrinking, with a reduction of $276.59 billion in 2025, bringing the total to $6.54 trillion, including a decrease of $192.59 billion in mortgage-backed securities and $76.16 billion in Treasury holdings [1] - There is a notable divergence between market expectations and the Federal Reserve's internal discussions regarding future rate paths, with some officials advocating for maintaining rates while the market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026 [2][3] Group 2 - The upcoming non-farm payroll data, expected to show an increase of 73,000 jobs and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5%, is seen as a critical indicator for the timing of the rate cut cycle [2] - The Federal Reserve is currently in a "policy wait-and-see" phase, with stable rates and gradual balance sheet reduction as the short-term focus, while the 150 basis points rate cut expectation sets the medium to long-term policy direction [3] - The management strategy of the balance sheet remains contentious, with some potential leadership candidates advocating for a more aggressive reduction, raising concerns about market liquidity fluctuations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global market is showing strong performance at the beginning of 2026, but investors are facing a significant test with the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report and a potential Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariff policies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Despite recent news, the U.S. stock and bond markets have remained stable at the start of January 2026, indicating an unusual calmness that may soon be disrupted [1][3]. - The S&P 500 index's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio has exceeded 22 times, a historically high level comparable to the peak in January 2022, which marked the beginning of a nine-month bear market [4]. Group 2: Employment Data Expectations - The consensus anticipates that the U.S. will add 60,000 non-farm jobs in December, close to the preliminary estimate of 64,000 from November, with the unemployment rate expected to decrease from 4.6% to 4.5% [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Risks - A strong employment report could lead investors to lower expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts this year, potentially interrupting the upward momentum of the stock market [2][4]. - Conversely, a weak report may reignite concerns about the economic outlook and labor market, prompting investors to reassess the high valuations of certain sectors [2][4]. Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - International gold prices have struggled to maintain momentum due to a strong U.S. dollar, with market participants remaining cautious ahead of the non-farm payroll report [2][4]. - The potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical uncertainties are providing some support for gold prices, which are near historical highs [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices showed a recovery after hitting a low, indicating a potential for further strength, despite short-term fluctuations and adjustments in the market [1][10]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4459.68 per ounce, experienced a drop to a low of $4407.55, and then rebounded to close at $4477.11, marking a daily increase of $17.43 or 0.39% [1][10]. - The daily trading range was $71.65, reflecting volatility in the market [1][10]. Influencing Factors - The decline in gold prices was influenced by pressure from previous resistance levels, increased margin requirements for precious metals futures, and better-than-expected initial data from the U.S. market [3][12]. - Support from buying interest and favorable initial jobless claims data helped gold prices recover [3][12]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as warnings of potential large-scale airstrikes in Ukraine, contributed to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][12]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains bullish, with a target of $5000 and higher, despite potential short-term pressures from a strong U.S. dollar and upcoming non-farm payroll data [3][12][15]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates multiple times this year, which could further support gold prices [15]. - Technical analysis suggests that if gold maintains its upward trend, it could see significant gains, potentially exceeding 30% within the year, with targets set between $5500 and $6000 [15][17]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices are showing strength, recovering most of the previous month's losses and indicating a potential new bull market [15]. - Weekly trends show gold prices recovering from previous declines and maintaining positions above key moving averages, suggesting increased bullish potential [17]. - Daily charts indicate that while bullish momentum has weakened, gold remains above key support levels, maintaining an overall upward trend [18].