Group 1 - The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting was held in Durban, South Africa, where China's deputy finance minister stated that the country will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and expand high-level opening-up in the second half of the year [1] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a defense appropriations bill for fiscal year 2026 totaling approximately $832 billion, which supports missile defense, weapon procurement, and research, including the development of the "Iron Dome" space-based missile defense system [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra privately advised President Trump against firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, citing potential economic, political, and legal consequences, and mentioned that the Fed might lower interest rates twice before the end of the year [1] Group 2 - Japan's ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, lost its majority in the House of Councillors during the 27th election, marking the first time since its establishment in 1955 that the LDP failed to secure a majority in both houses of the National Diet [2] - Japan's core CPI fell to 3.3% year-on-year in June, remaining above the central bank's target for 39 consecutive months, while the "core-core" CPI rose to 3.4% [5] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.32% to 44,342.19 points, while the S&P 500 index decreased by 0.01% to 6,296.79 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 0.05% to 20,895.66 points, marking its fifth consecutive increase and a new historical high [6] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.25% to $3,355.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures dropped by 1.36% to $38.43 per ounce [7] - U.S. oil futures fell by 3.54% to $66.03 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures decreased by 1.61% to $69.23 per barrel [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the ongoing volatility in the gold market, driven by strong economic data and inflation concerns, leading to a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments [1][2]. - On July 18, spot gold closed at $3350.05, showing narrow fluctuations, with a significant drop to $3309.82 before rebounding to $3338.86, reflecting a "V" shaped recovery [1]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that despite improvements in trade and financial conditions, trade tensions continue to pose risks to the global economic outlook, with a potential update to growth forecasts expected [2]. Group 2 - The gold market is currently characterized by a bullish trend, with a focus on effective trading strategies within defined price ranges, particularly between $3375 and $3310 [3][4]. - The analysis indicates that the gold price may have upward potential, targeting the $3360-$3365 range, while key support levels are identified at $3330 and $3320 [4]. - Short-term trading strategies are recommended to focus on buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with specific attention to resistance and support levels [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing volatility, with the Dow Jones dropping 100 points while the Chinese assets, particularly Chinese concept stocks, are surging by 2% [1][4] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. has reached a five-month high at 61.8, but underlying concerns about inflation and job expectations remain [3][4] - Netflix reported strong earnings with user growth and revenue exceeding expectations, yet its stock price fell by 4%, indicating market skepticism about future growth [4][7] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is benefiting from regulatory actions that have paused aggressive price competition among food delivery platforms like Meituan and Ele.me, allowing them to focus on sustainable business practices [5][6] - The halt of the price war is seen as a positive development, enabling companies to optimize operations and improve profitability, which is reflected in rising stock prices [5][6] - The potential for U.S. interest rate cuts, driven by President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve, could lead to a shift in global capital flows towards Chinese assets, which are perceived as stable and undervalued [6][8] Group 3 - The recent surge in Chinese concept stocks is attributed to a combination of "negative news exhaustion" and a return to fundamental value, as these stocks are seen as undervalued with improving earnings [7][8] - The market's reaction to earnings reports, such as Netflix's, highlights the tendency for stocks to react negatively even to good news if future growth prospects are uncertain [7][8] - Investors are advised to focus on long-term trends and fundamentals rather than short-term market fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of understanding the underlying business health [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Federal Reserve Governor Waller expresses interest in the Fed Chair position and suggests a potential interest rate cut in July due to concerns over private sector employment weakness [1][2]. - Waller emphasizes that the performance of the private sector is not as strong as perceived, based on the June non-farm payroll report which showed a slowdown in private sector job growth and a deceleration in wage growth [2]. - Waller indicates that the Fed should lower borrowing costs before the labor market deteriorates further, aligning with his previous speech in New York [2]. Group 2 - Waller's name is mentioned as a potential successor to current Fed Chair Powell, whose term ends in May next year, and he states he would accept the nomination if offered [4]. - He clarifies that President Trump has not contacted him regarding the position, labeling it as an "irrelevant hypothesis" while stressing the importance of the next chair gaining the trust of financial markets [5]. - Waller warns that a lack of credibility in the next chair could lead to rising inflation expectations and higher interest rates, a principle validated globally [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the weakening US dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and mixed economic signals from the US, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Factors Impacting Gold Prices - Gold prices have recently increased by 0.4% to $3353.25 per ounce due to a softening dollar and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1]. - Positive US real estate data, including building permits and new housing starts, has reduced recession fears, providing some support for the dollar and exerting pressure on gold [2]. - Discrepancies in Federal Reserve officials' views on monetary policy have created market volatility, with some advocating for immediate rate cuts while others suggest maintaining high rates [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation and Market Sentiment - The US June CPI data indicates signs of rising inflation, which may delay the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, impacting gold's attractiveness [3]. - The interplay of Federal Reserve policies, US economic data, and tariff uncertainties is creating a complex environment for gold prices, with potential inflation pressures enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies - Technical analysis shows gold is currently in a consolidation phase, with key resistance levels around $3375 and support levels at $3340-$3345 [4][6]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on boundary breakouts, with potential upward movement towards $3380 if support levels hold [4][6]. - Specific trading strategies include selling on rebounds near $3373-$3375 and buying on dips around $3340-$3345, with defined stop-loss levels to manage risk [7][8].

当地时间周五，美股三大指数涨跌不一，标普500指数跌0.01%，报6296.79点，纳斯达克综合指数涨 0.05%，报20895.66点，再创历史新高，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.32%，报44342.19点。中概股冲高 回落，纳斯达克中国金龙指数开盘后一度涨超2%，截至收盘上涨0.6%。 消息面上，据俄罗斯卫星社7月17日报道，美国总统特朗普表示，准备对150个经济体量不大的国家商品 征收10%至15%的关税。此外，7月美国消费者信心指数升至近5个月高点。 另外，"爱泼斯坦案"持续升温。当地时间7月18日，特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文称，"爱泼斯坦 案"没有确凿证据。他对新闻集团、道琼斯公司、传媒大亨鲁珀特·默多克及两名《华尔街日报》记者提起 诽谤诉讼。目前起诉文件尚未公开。 美股高位震荡，中概股集体走强 特朗普就"爱泼斯坦案"提起诉讼。 此前在4月2日，特朗普曾签署行政令，对进口自其他国家的商品征收所谓"对等关税"，最低基准税率为 10%。但4月9日，特朗普宣布暂停征收关税90天。7月9日，关税暂缓期结束前夕，特朗普又将暂缓期延 长至8月1日。 据美联社7月17日报道，美联社与NORC公共事务研究中心 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周五，三大指数涨跌不一。本周道指累计下跌0.07%，纳指上涨1.51%，标普500指 数上涨0.59%。美国总统特朗普在白宫正式签署《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（GENIUS 法 案），标志着美国稳定币监管立法进入实施阶段。 【美股】截至收盘，道指跌142.30点，跌幅为0.32%，报44342.19点；纳指涨10.01点，涨幅为0.05%，报 20895.66点；标普500指数跌0.57点，跌幅为0.01%，报6296.79点。纳指连续第五个交易日上涨，并创盘 中与收盘历史新高。加密概念股涨跌互现，Robinhood(HOOD.US)涨4.07%、Coinbase(COIN.US)涨 2.2%、Circle(CRCL.US)跌4.71%、Hut 8(HUT.US)跌2.26%。3M(MMM.US)跌3.63%，奈飞(NFLX.US)跌 5.10%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数跌80.57点，跌幅0.33%，报24286.90点；英国富时100指数涨17.38点，涨幅 0.19%，报8990.02点；法国CAC40指数涨0.67点，涨幅0.01%，报7822.67点；欧洲斯托克50 ...

周五公布的密歇根大学7月份的报告显示，美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心反弹，在7月初升至五个月来的最高水平，人们对经济和通胀的预期持续改善，通 胀预期也显著回落。 美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值61.8，预期61.5，前值60.7。尽管如此，该消费者信心指数仍低于去年全年水平。 分项指数方面，7月密歇根大学消费者的现况指数初值66.8，预期63.9，前值64.8，改善明显；预期指数初值58.6，预期56.9，前值58.1。 不过，如果宣布进一步加征关税或通胀回升，消费者信心可能会受到抑制。 消费者对当前个人财务状况的看法有所改善，可能受益于美国股市的反弹。此次调查于7月14日结束，距美国总统特朗普签署预算案已有一周多时间，该预 算案包括延长减税并为打工小费收入者提供新减免。 此次消费者信心回升主要受到共和党人和政治独立人士信心改善的推动。 消费者信心影响着未来几个月的经济增长。悲观的消费者情绪会抑制支出水平、从而影响经济复苏，乐观的消费者情绪则有助于未来经济。 （文章来源：华尔街见闻） 市场备受关注的通胀预期方面，7月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值4.4%，为2月以来的最低，低于预期的5%，前值为5%；5年通胀 ...

美国10年期国债收益率目前跌2.19个基点，报4.4295%，北京时间22:00发布美国消费者信心和通胀预期 数据时刷新日低至4.4155%。 ...

Core Insights - The preliminary data from the University of Michigan indicates that the U.S. consumer confidence index rose to its highest level in five months, reaching 61.8 in July, up from 60.7 in June, although it remains below most levels from the previous year [1] - Inflation expectations have decreased, with respondents anticipating a 4.4% increase in prices over the next year, down from 5% the previous month, marking the lowest level since February [1] - Concerns about the economic outlook persist, particularly regarding uncertainties related to tariffs, which continue to limit overall optimism [1] Consumer Sentiment - The current conditions index increased from 64.8 to 66.8, while the expectations index slightly rose to 58.6, driven mainly by improved sentiment among Republican supporters and independent voters [2] - The recent rise in consumer confidence may reflect a perception that the worst-case scenarios feared in April and May have eased [1][2] - Consumers' views on their financial situation have improved, potentially influenced by a rising stock market [1]