Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices due to factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased tariffs in the U.S. [1] - As of October 13, the London spot gold price reached a historic high, surpassing $4,080 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures also hit a new record above $4,100 per ounce [1] - The World Gold Council reported that 95% of surveyed central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the coming year, indicating strong investment demand [1] Group 2 - A report from a brokerage firm suggests that the upward trend in precious metals is supported by the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and liquidity easing, with long-term bullish factors including debt expansion and dollar credit contraction [2] - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and other banks have issued warnings about the risks associated with precious metals, advising investors to be cautious and manage their exposure to market fluctuations [2]

Core Viewpoint - Silver has experienced a significant surge in price, reaching a high of $51.69 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 70%, outpacing gold's 50% rise [2][4]. Market Dynamics - Silver faced a short squeeze in the London market, with prices nearing $52 per ounce and a peak increase of 3.1%, surpassing last week's high [4]. - Concerns over liquidity in the London market have intensified, pushing silver closer to its record high of $52.50 per ounce set in 1980 [4]. - The benchmark price in London has surged significantly above that of the New York exchange, prompting traders to arrange costly air freight for silver bars to exploit the price difference [4]. Borrowing Costs - The borrowing rate for silver in London has skyrocketed to over 30% for one-month terms, significantly increasing costs for those attempting to roll over short positions [4]. - Similar tightening in borrowing rates has been observed for gold and palladium, indicating a broader strain on silver and gold reserves in London [4]. Analyst Insights - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that the silver market is less liquid, being about one-ninth the size of the gold market, which amplifies price volatility [5]. - The absence of central bank purchases to anchor silver prices could lead to disproportionate corrections if investment funds withdraw, reversing the current upward trend driven by tight conditions in London [5]. Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, continue to support safe-haven demand for gold, which indirectly benefits silver [5]. - Traders are closely monitoring the U.S. government's investigation into key minerals, including silver, which raises concerns about potential new tariffs and adds to market tension [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S., which may elevate demand for safe-haven assets like gold and strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten [5][9]. - The copper market is experiencing supply disruptions, with prices trending upward due to tight supply conditions [5]. - Aluminum demand is expected to continue, with potential opportunities for investment following market corrections [5]. - The strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten is emphasized due to recent export controls and geopolitical developments [5][9]. Summary by Sections Copper Sector - Supply disruptions are ongoing, with LME copper prices at $10,735 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.9% [5]. - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate is negative, indicating tight supply [5]. - Companies with rich copper reserves are recommended for investment [9]. Aluminum Sector - LME aluminum prices reached $2,800 per ton, up 3.6% week-on-week [5]. - The operating rate for aluminum processing enterprises has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain stable [5]. - Investment opportunities are suggested for companies in the aluminum sector following market corrections [9]. Gold Sector - Gold prices are rising, with SHFE gold at 901.6 RMB per gram, up 3.1% week-on-week [5]. - The report suggests that geopolitical tensions may enhance gold's strategic position as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Investment in gold-related companies is recommended due to their undervalued resource potential [9]. Rare Metals Sector - Rare earth prices remain stable, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 683,000 RMB per ton [5]. - Recent export controls on rare earths have heightened their strategic importance amid U.S.-China tensions [5][9]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies involved in rare earth production [9]. Steel Sector - Steel prices are stable, with SHFE rebar at 3,103 RMB per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.0% [6]. - The report notes frequent disruptions in iron ore supply negotiations, which may impact future prices [6]. - Companies with high self-sufficiency in iron ore are recommended for investment [9].

Core Insights - The London market is experiencing a historic short squeeze, leading to silver prices reaching multi-decade highs, with spot silver nearing $52 per ounce, a significant increase of 3.1% [1] - Gold has also seen a rise, surpassing $4,070 per ounce, continuing an eight-week upward trend, while platinum and palladium prices have surged as market tensions spread to other precious metals [1] Market Dynamics - Concerns over insufficient liquidity in the London silver market are driving prices close to the historical record of $52.50 per ounce set in 1980, with the London benchmark silver price significantly higher than that in New York [1] - The one-month leasing rate for London silver skyrocketed over 30% last Friday, indicating tightening liquidity in precious metal reserves, with similar increases observed in gold and palladium leasing rates [1] Investment Trends - Analysts from Goldman Sachs highlight that the low liquidity in the silver market, which is about one-ninth the size of the gold market, could amplify price volatility, suggesting that a withdrawal of investment funds without central bank support may lead to significant corrections [1] - The four major precious metals have seen price increases ranging from 55% to 80% this year, driven by factors such as central bank gold purchases, increased ETF holdings, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, alongside geopolitical and trade risks boosting safe-haven demand [1] Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical and trade risks that initially supported gold prices are now showing signs of weakening, although analysts note that trade volatility is unlikely to disappear completely, which remains favorable for gold [1] - The conclusion of the U.S. "Section 232" investigation is anticipated, with traders wary of potential tariffs on metals, while the reduction in London silver inventories has laid the groundwork for the current short squeeze [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - During the National Day holiday in 2025, international gold prices rose continuously. New York and London gold prices broke through the key psychological level of $4,000 per ounce, with a holiday increase of over 4% and a year - to - date increase of over 50%. The strong performance of gold prices is mainly due to the resonance of three driving factors: surging避险需求 driven by government shutdowns and geopolitical conflicts, expectations of monetary policy including interest - rate cut trades and damaged US dollar credit, and structural inflow of funds with central bank and ETF buying [3][26]. - On the night of last Friday, due to President Trump's post on social media about imposing a 100% tariff on China, commodities and US stocks generally declined, while the gold price fluctuated upwards. Sino - US trade frictions have increased market避险情绪, which is beneficial for precious metals, and gold may continue to outperform silver. However, the short - term general decline of assets may lead to liquidity problems, causing short - term pressure on the gold price. It is expected that precious metals may show a trend of first decline and then rise, and attention can be paid to the support at the $4,000 level for overseas gold and the RMB 900 level for domestic gold [3][26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Trend**: No specific text description of the weekly trend is provided, only a chart of the US dollar index linkage is mentioned [7]. - **Indicator Changes**: From September 30th to October 10th, COMEX gold increased by 3.80% from $3,887.60 to $4,035.50, COMEX silver increased by 1.44% from $46.84 to $47.52, SHFE gold futures increased by 3.11% from 874.40 to 901.56, and SHFE silver futures increased by 1.50% from 10,918.00 to 11,082.00. The US dollar index increased by 1.06%, the US dollar against the offshore RMB increased by 0.22%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.05, the S&P 500 decreased by 2.03%, and the US crude oil continuous contract decreased by 6.71%. The COMEX gold - silver ratio increased by 2.33%, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio increased by 1.58%. The SPDR gold ETF increased by 4.28, and the iShare gold ETF increased by 3.69 [8]. 3.2 Escalation of Trade Frictions and Rising Safe - Haven Demand - During the National Day holiday, international gold prices rose continuously, and after the holiday, the prices remained strong. On Friday night, due to Trump's statement about imposing tariffs on China, market避险情绪 quickly rose. However, the gold price showed a fluctuating upward trend rather than a one - sided increase, mainly because the general decline of global assets led to short - term liquidity problems and put pressure on the gold price [10]. - The expectation of Sino - US trade frictions rapidly escalated last Friday night, causing the market panic to spread quickly and the US stock market to decline significantly [12]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to the data on September 23rd, compared with the previous week, the long - position change was 6,030 contracts, the short - position change was 5,691 contracts, and the net long - position change was 339 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs, but its update frequency is low and timeliness is poor [14]. - Last week, the ETF holdings changed little. Due to the rising避险情绪 last week, the increase of gold was greater than that of silver, and the gold - silver ratio continued to rise. Also, last Friday, due to the escalating expectation of Sino - US trade frictions, the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined significantly, and the 10 - 2 year spread narrowed [16][20][22]. 3.4 Conclusion - The strong performance of gold prices is due to the resonance of three factors: surging避险需求, expectations of monetary policy, and structural inflow of funds. Sino - US trade frictions are beneficial for precious metals, and gold may continue to outperform silver. Precious metals are expected to show a trend of first decline and then rise, and attention can be paid to the support at the $4,000 level for overseas gold and the RMB 900 level for domestic gold [3][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The continuous push of safe - haven demand, central bank gold - buying trends, and monetary policy easing expectations have strengthened the medium - to - long - term upward logic of precious metals prices [3]. - The copper price is caught between the strong expectation of supply shortage and the weak expectation of tariff policy, leading to short - term high - level fluctuations in futures prices [16]. - Macroeconomic policies are the core factors affecting the price of Shanghai Aluminum. The price has been affected by factors such as employment data, tariff announcements, and supply disruptions. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while cast aluminum alloy has strong support [35]. - The fundamentals of zinc have not improved. Although the zinc price has risen, the domestic supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is obvious [56]. - The nickel price is mainly influenced by the situation of the Indonesian nickel ore market. The downstream of the new energy sector has a good demand, and the stainless steel market has some positive factors, but is also affected by tariff uncertainties [69]. - Due to increased macro - uncertainty, the tin price is expected to correct in the short term [85]. - Considering supply and demand factors, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show a weakening trend with fluctuations [98]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, but the increase is limited by inventory. The trading of polysilicon is focused on the establishment of the storage platform and the cancellation of warehouse receipts, with high volatility and risk [109]. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Fed rate - cut expectations, global economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold - buying trends are driving up precious metals prices. The gold ETF holdings have rebounded [3]. - **Price Charts**: Various price charts, including SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices, and gold - related spreads, are provided [4][10][12] Copper - **Price Outlook**: The copper price is in a high - level fluctuation due to the tug - of - war between supply and policy expectations. Further upward breakthrough may require the support of rate - cut expectations and domestic policies [16]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current copper futures and spot prices, import and export profits, and inventory data are presented [17][22][33] Aluminum - **Price Influencing Factors**: Macroeconomic policies, employment data, tariff announcements, and supply disruptions are affecting the aluminum price. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [35]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are provided [36][44][50] Zinc - **Price Outlook**: The zinc price has risen, but the domestic supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persists. The import - export situation is also a factor [56]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current zinc futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are presented [57][63][66] Nickel - **Price Influencing Factors**: The Indonesian nickel ore market, new energy demand, and stainless steel market trends are influencing the nickel price. Tariff uncertainties also have an impact [69]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current nickel and stainless steel futures prices, inventory data, and downstream profit data are provided [70][76][80] Tin - **Price Outlook**: Due to increased macro - uncertainty, the tin price is expected to correct in the short term [85]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current tin futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are presented [85][88][93] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: Considering supply and demand factors, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show a weakening trend with fluctuations [98]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, raw material prices, and inventory data are provided [99][103][107] Silicon - **Price Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, but the increase is limited by inventory. The trading of polysilicon is focused on the establishment of the storage platform and the cancellation of warehouse receipts, with high volatility and risk [109]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current industrial silicon and polysilicon spot prices, production data, and inventory data are presented [110][116][123]

根据金融数据服务商东方财富的统计，稀土永磁板块当天上涨7.28%，领涨A股所有板块。个股方面， 九菱科技股价当天录得26.64%的涨幅；银河磁体、新莱福、惠城环保股价收获涨停板(涨幅约20%)。 消息面上，中国商务部近日发布两项关于加强稀土相关物项出口管制的公告，对含有中国成分的部分境 外稀土相关物项以及稀土相关技术实施出口管制。 中新社北京10月13日电 (记者 陈康亮)中国A股13日(周一)"遇冷"，主要股指悉数下跌，但结构上不乏亮 点，稀土永磁、贵金属板块当天逆势上涨，表现亮眼。 据媒体报道，国际金价、银价近期双双迎来历史新高，继10月8日现货黄金价格站上每盎司4000美元 后，10月9日现货白银价格盘中冲上每盎司51美元，均打破历史纪录。 天风证券分析师刘奕町表示，近期金银价格上涨的动力来源于强劲的避险需求，背后驱动因素包括美国 政府停摆以及日本政治动荡等。 就当天A股主要指数的表现而言，截至收盘，上证指数报3889点，跌幅为0.19%；深证成指报13231点， 跌幅为0.93%；创业板指报3078点，跌1.11%。沪深两市成交总额约23548亿元人民币，较上一个交易日 缩量约1609亿元人民币。(完 ...

10月13日，受关税摩擦升级影响，三大指数集体回调，截至午间收盘，有色金属ETF基金(516650)下跌0.18%，细分有色板块表现分化，稀土、黄金概念大 涨，铜铝板块领跌，其持仓股北方稀土涨9.03%，中国稀土涨8.07%，盛和资源涨6.76%；北方铜业领跌7.03%，博威合金、云南铜业、江西铜业等股纷纷重 挫。 流动值得注意的是，近日，有色金属ETF基金(516650)持续获资金布局，近6日连续获资金净申购，累计吸金6.6亿，截至10月10日，最新份额达9.04亿份，最 新规模达15.40亿元，均创成立以来新高。 来源：智通财经 消息面上，近日特朗普发声表示将反制中国的稀土出口管制政策，并"计划大幅提高中国商品的关税"。 国泰海通分析指出，叠加近期美经济数据表现尚 可，市场同时交易降息后海外需求回升逻辑。但近日特朗普发声表示将反制中国的稀土出口管制政策，并"计划大幅提高中国商品的关税"。中美关税博弈再 起，或再度冲击需求预期，市场短期交易或围绕避险需求展开。对于贵金属而言，避险情绪溢价或继续支撑金价，而工业品可能面临阶段性承压，但参考4 月对等关税后价格表现，当前海外需求并未受到实质冲击，短期震荡或是工业 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals continue to rise, with spot gold reaching $4060 and silver surpassing $50.80, driven by historical short squeeze in London and trade tensions [1] - Concerns over potential tariffs on gold and other precious metals from the White House have led to significant increases in platinum and palladium prices [1] - President Trump threatened additional tariffs on China, increasing market risk and supporting demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals [2] Group 2 - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to a five-month low, while Federal Reserve officials expressed support for further rate cuts, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [2] - The Shanghai gold futures maintain a bullish outlook, with key support at 905, and potential targets of 935/950 [3] - Shanghai silver experienced a significant rise to around 12480, with a bullish trend expected to continue, supported by a key level at 11100 [3]

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 12 日 美国关税冲击再起，关注黄金、稀 土等板块 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20251006-20251010 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37%，深证成指下跌 1.26%，沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，有色金属（申万） ...