摘要今日周三(12月17日)亚盘，国际黄金在4324美元附近运行，截至发稿最新报4324.62美元/盎司，日 内上涨0.52%。盘中最高触及4326.39美元/盎司，最低下探至4300.39美元/盎司，波幅约26美元。短线技 术面与资金情绪偏暖，金价在回踩4300关口后企稳回升，延续震荡上行态势，短期有望继续测试上方阻 力位。 今日周三(12月17日)亚盘，国际黄金在4324美元附近运行，截至发稿最新报4324.62美元/盎司，日内上 涨0.52%。盘中最高触及4326.39美元/盎司，最低下探至4300.39美元/盎司，波幅约26美元。短线技术面 与资金情绪偏暖，金价在回踩4300关口后企稳回升，延续震荡上行态势，短期有望继续测试上方阻力 位。 【要闻速递】 除了美国经济数据，俄乌冲突的最新动态也为黄金提供了重要避险支撑。周二金价一度回落，主要因乌 克兰和平前景的传闻削弱了避险需求，但随后便震荡回升。 与此同时，美欧正探讨在停火后向乌克兰提供安全保障。德国总理默茨表示，必要时维和部队可对俄军 动武，并强调美国承诺在停火情形下，将像保护北约领土一样保护乌克兰，包括设立非军事区及针对入 侵的快速反应机制——不过 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 宏观氛围走弱，避险需求上升 | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产，降息落地 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看强 核心逻辑：昨日亚洲盘金价震荡下行，夜盘冲高回落。拉长周期看， ...

2025年，沉寂多年的有色金属板块迎来了久违的史诗级行情。截至12月16日，A股有色金属（申万一级行业，下同）年度涨幅高达73.67%，超越通信板块 （72.97%），位居全市场第一。而在上周五，全A涨幅第一是通信行业，可见今年行业涨幅榜竞争激烈程度。 有色金属板块内个股表现更是精彩纷呈。斯瑞新材（688102.SH）以340.01%的涨幅领跑，招金黄金（000506.SZ）、兴业银锡（000426.SZ）、中钨高新 （000657.SZ）、洛阳钼业（603993.SH）等一批耳熟能详的有色龙头，涨幅均超过150%，共计26只股年内翻倍，成为2025年A股最靓丽的风景线。 本文字数：2711，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经魏中原 在一片欢腾与惊叹中，一个几乎被市场遗忘的历史规律正凝视着这场有色盛宴。第一财经记者统计2000年以来的行业涨幅排名数据，有色金属行业两次涨 幅排名全A第二，却从未登顶，也从未实现过连续两年跻身涨幅前五名的壮举。 此刻，有色金属正无限接近打破第一项纪录，其年涨幅领先第二名通信行业0.7个百分点，能否保持领先身位距离，登顶A股年度榜首，距离2025年A股收 官还有12个交易日，这一 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a core logic of a weakening macro atmosphere and rising risk - aversion demand [1][3] - Copper is expected to be strong in the long - term, due to a macro - easing environment, mine - end production cuts, and the implementation of interest rate cuts [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - Short - term view: Strong; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Intraday view: Oscillating and tending to be strong; Overall reference view: Strong in the short - line. The price has been rising since last week, reaching near the $4400 mark on Monday night. After a dovish Fed meeting, the short - term market risk preference and liquidity increased, but on Friday night, the macro atmosphere worsened. The short - term impact of the meeting has been digested, and risk - aversion demand has risen rapidly, so the price may remain strong. Tonight's US non - farm data may affect short - term trends, and the $4400 mark is a technical resistance in the medium - to - long - term [1][3] Copper (CU) - Short - term view: Oscillating; Medium - term view: Strong; Intraday view: Oscillating and tending to be strong; Overall reference view: Strong in the long - line. After the Asian session yesterday, LME copper soared close to $11,900, and SHFE copper opened higher at night, approaching the 94,000 yuan mark. Then the price fell back, and the long - position closing intention was strong. The non - ferrous sector declined, but copper was resilient due to its strong financial properties. The sharp drop last Friday stimulated downstream replenishment demand, and the spot premium in Guangdong increased, indicating actual demand resilience. The short - term price volatility is large, and both sides tend to close positions. Tonight's US non - farm employment data may affect short - term trends, and the 5 - day moving average can be monitored [1][4]

Core Viewpoint - Recent rise in gold prices reflects market repricing of interest rate environment and risk sentiment [1][3] - Current increase in gold prices is driven by multiple expectations rather than a single factor [1][3] Macroeconomic Factors - The core impact of interest rate cut expectations is the change in holding costs [1][3] - As interest rate cut expectations strengthen, funds are more likely to flow into inflation-resistant and value-preserving assets [1][3] - Periodic safety events amplify market uncertainty, increasing demand for safe-haven assets, providing additional support for gold prices [1][3] Short-term Influences - Short-term disturbances exist, with some officials signaling tighter policies, leading to a temporary strengthening of the dollar, which suppresses gold prices [1][3] - These signals reflect policy divergence rather than a trend reversal, with the market expected to reassess based on employment and inflation data [1][3] Data Considerations - Upcoming employment report is a key variable influencing short-term trends [4] - A slowdown in the labor market could further solidify easing expectations; conversely, strong data may trigger a technical pullback in gold prices, but not necessarily alter the mid-term structure [4] Technical Structure - Gold prices are currently in a relatively favorable position, remaining above key moving averages with strong momentum indicators, indicating that the bullish trend is not broken [4] - If the key resistance zone is effectively breached, sentiment and funds may resonate, driving prices further upward [4] Long-term Outlook - In the context of interest rate cycles, risk preferences, and technical patterns, gold retains medium to long-term investment appeal [2][4] - Short-term fluctuations are seen as rhythm adjustments, with a focus on the overall trend rather than individual events causing emotional swings [2][4]

特朗普将当前的高通胀问题归咎于"前任政府"，并预测随着时间推移，接近选举时美国的物价状况将 会"相当不错"。 此外，他还透露了可能入股国防企业的意向，同时表示自己推动的美国投资计划尚未完全发挥效果。面 对即将到来的中期选举，特朗普的态度显得较为谨慎，坦言不确定当前的经济政策是否能够助力共和党 赢得选举。 【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 从技术面看，上海黄金t+d成功突破950元/克的关键阻力位，日线级别维持上升通道，短期均线呈多头 排列，MACD指标金叉延续，技术面偏强运行。上方阻力关注960元/克整数关口，若有效突破，则可能 进一步打开上行空间；下方支撑在945元/克附近。成交量温和放大，市场情绪偏多，但需警惕美联储政 策预期反复及短期获利回吐风险。中期来看，美联储降息预期和避险需求仍为金价提供支撑。 今日周一(12月15日)亚盘时段，上海黄金t+d早盘开盘于976.00元/克，随后震荡上行，盘中最高触及 979.32元/克，截至发稿报974.12元/克，涨幅1.29%。 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普近日表达了其对于利率的强烈期望，他希望看到利率在一年内能降至1%或更低，这一 水平显著低于当前美联储所设定的政策 ...

今日周一（12月15日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于960附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂979.30元/克， 涨幅1.52%，最高触及985.78元/克，最低下探963.50元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走势。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 沪金主力合约延续强势，日线级别站稳950元/克关键支撑，短期均线多头排列，MACD指标金叉延续， 技术面维持上行通道。上方阻力关注960元/克整数关口，突破后或打开上行空间；下方支撑在945元/克 附近。成交量温和放大，市场情绪偏多，但需警惕美联储政策预期反复及短期获利回吐风险。中期受降 息预期和避险需求支撑。 乌克兰总统顾问表示，乌克兰和美国代表团在柏林就"和平计划"举行的会谈持续了五个多小时，并将于 15日继续进行。 14日，美乌双方在德国首都柏林举行闭门会谈，就美方提出的结束俄乌冲突的"和平计划"进行磋商。参 与会谈的美方代表主要包括美国总统特使威特科夫、美国总统特朗普的女婿库什纳等。乌方代表除乌总 统泽连斯基外，还包括乌国家安全与国防委员会秘书乌梅罗夫以及乌军总参谋长格纳托夫等。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 ...

期货研究报告 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 8 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 贵金属 | 周报 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 12 月 15 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 短期避险需求上升 核心观点 上周金价呈现上行态势，纽约金由周初的4200美元，拉升至周末 的 4300 美元。上周最核心的驱动因素是美联储 12 月议息会议。会议 决定降息 25 基点，此外美联储宣布将重启资产负债表扩张，共同打 压美元并提振黄金。整体美联储表现偏鸽，短期市场风险偏好与流 ...

就业数据对市场判断通胀黏性和货币政策走向具有直接影响。非农就业数据通常通过"美元指数—美债 收益率—实际利率"这一传导链条来影响黄金价格。若就业数据及工资增速显著超出预期，可能会增强 市场的高利率预期，进而推升美元指数和实际利率，对黄金价格构成阶段性压制。相反，如果就业数据 和工资增速不佳，那么"就业降温"的叙事就可能促使市场重新评估降息预期，从而利好黄金。当然，也 需要警惕数据集中发布可能引发的市场短线波动放大。 对于黄金后市，知名人士认为在降息周期已得到确认且市场流动性宽松的背景下，黄金的中期"定价 锚"更倾向于实际利率下行和避险需求上升。从边际变化来看，美联储降息节奏与市场定价之间仍存在 分歧。如果后续数据显示出"降息放缓甚至暂停"的迹象，那么金价可能会出现深度回调。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 摘要今日周一(12月15日)亚盘时段，黄金价格呈现出强劲的上涨态势，屡创历史新高。然而，进入10月 下旬后，金价出现了一定程度的回调，但经过短暂调整，整体仍维持震荡上行的趋势。 今日周一(12月15日)亚盘时段，黄金价格呈现出强劲的上涨态势，屡创历史新高。然而，进入10月下旬 后，金价出现了一定程度的回调，但经过短 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **gold market** and its pricing dynamics, particularly in the context of macroeconomic factors and historical trends. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Pricing Attributes**: Gold pricing is influenced by its three attributes: commodity, financial, and monetary, which correspond to inflation, opportunity cost, and credit system risk. The dominant factors vary across different periods [1][2][4] - **Historical Context**: The historical evolution of gold as a safe-haven asset is highlighted, with significant events such as the establishment of the gold standard, the Bretton Woods system, and the subsequent shift to floating exchange rates impacting its valuation [2][3][6] - **Current Market Dynamics**: In the current low-growth, high-debt environment, the risk-free status of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries is being questioned, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][7][8] - **Gold Bull Markets**: Three major gold bull markets are identified: - The first (2001-2012) was driven by global risk events and liquidity expansion, with gold prices increasing nearly sixfold [3] - The second (2007-2011) was fueled by the subprime mortgage crisis and subsequent quantitative easing, peaking at $1,900 per ounce [3] - The third (2018-present) is influenced by U.S.-China trade tensions, de-dollarization trends, and geopolitical conflicts, leading to significant increases in central bank gold purchases [3][8] Additional Important Content - **Investment Strategy Shifts**: Post-World War II, non-U.S. economies have shifted their strategies regarding gold and U.S. Treasuries, reflecting a declining trust in the dollar. This suggests a potential return to gold as a universal currency [6] - **Inflation and Gold**: Historical correlations between gold prices and inflation rates are noted, particularly during high inflation periods in the 1970s and 1980s, where gold served as a hedge against inflation [5] - **Future Outlook**: The current geopolitical landscape suggests that gold may be a more favorable investment choice compared to traditional risk-free assets, as the global power dynamics are in transition and technological advancements are still in early stages [7][8]