但白银价格的预期则更为复杂。Wilson表示，尽管白银价格持续创下新高，但推动2025年白银强劲上涨的实物短缺问题正在解决，预计白银在达到100美 元后不久将遭到抛售。上海期货交易所近期也接连多次上调白银期货合约交易限额和保证金，强化投资者白银投资的风险管控。 黄金白银价格的持续上行也刺激着许多散户投资者加速进场。陆利平认为，普通投资者应明确贵金属作为"避险垫"的配置定位，占比控制在5%-15%。配 置策略上，以黄金为底仓构建防御性组合，适度纳入白银以增强弹性。操作上，可以采用定投模式，通过银行积存金、黄金ETF等工具平滑建仓成本，坚 决避免在历史高位进行一次性重仓买入。需警惕美联储政策超预期转向及地缘局势实质性缓和带来的回调风险。务必定期审视资产组合，严守纪律，理性 参与，方能穿越市场周期，把握长期结构性机会。 贵金属又又又又迎来一波大涨行情。 1月21日，现货黄金和现货白银价格均创历史新高。其中，现货黄金价格突破4800美元/盎司整数关口，一度上探到4887美元/盎司。同日，中国黄金的足 金饰品报价超过1500元/克；现货白银价格也一度突破95美元/盎司关口，折合人民币约每克23元。 2025年年底，有多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices approaching the $5000 per ounce mark, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets and declining trust in the US dollar [2][5][6]. Price Movement - On January 21, London gold prices reached a high of $4888.17 per ounce, nearing the $5000 threshold [3]. - Over the last three trading days, the London gold spot price increased by $267 per ounce, with a weekly gain exceeding 5.7% [4]. - As of the latest report, COMEX gold futures were priced at $4869 per ounce, marking a $100 increase from the previous trading day [5]. Market Sentiment - There is a growing bullish sentiment in the precious metals market, although there are warnings of potential short-term corrections due to overbought conditions [4][7]. - Investor sentiment is divided, with some individuals eager to increase their positions in anticipation of reaching $5000, while others are cautious and considering risk management strategies [8]. Institutional Insights - Some analysts predict that if the US dollar index rebounds or global risk appetite improves, gold prices may retreat to the $4600-$4700 range [7]. - Despite short-term correction risks, the long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, supported by factors such as weak global economic recovery and ongoing geopolitical risks [7]. Investment Strategies - The rapid rise in gold prices has led to increased interest in gold ETFs, with the largest domestic gold ETF surpassing 100.76 billion yuan in assets [8]. - Investors are advised to approach the current market with caution, considering strategies such as dollar-cost averaging in gold ETFs or phased purchases of physical gold to mitigate risks [9]. Regulatory Actions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to the price limits and margin requirements for gold and silver futures to enhance market supervision and maintain orderly trading [9].

原油消息面解析：周三美原油小幅走高交投于59.70美元/桶附近，依然处于区间震荡之中，反弹力度有 限，主要受到最新经济数据改善的提振，但市场整体情绪依旧偏谨慎。作为全球最大原油进口方的亚洲 国家，其国内生产总值和工业生产数据被解读为经济活动正在趋于稳定，这在一定程度上缓解了此前市 场对需求持续走弱的担忧，为油价提供了阶段性支撑。不过，需求端的积极信号并未完全主导市场定 价。美欧之间围绕地缘与贸易担忧情绪的摩擦，使投资者对全球经济增长前景保持警惕。市场普遍认 为，一旦相关紧张局势扩大，全球制造业和贸易活动可能承压，从而拖累原油的中期需求表现。这种不 确定性使得油价在反弹过程中缺乏持续性动能。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 1月21日，黄金消息面解析：周三（1月21日）亚欧时段，现货黄金震荡上涨，现交投于每盎司4885美元 附近，日内涨幅约2.55%，截至14：28，金价一度触及4888.17美元/盎司的历史新高。当前世界正处于 地缘政治、金融稳定与政治格局的多重风暴眼中，共同推升黄金的避险与价值存储需求。在2026年开年 之际，一场由美国总统特朗普引发的格陵兰岛主权风暴席卷全球，彻底点燃了地缘政治火药桶。特朗普 公开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market remains strong amid geopolitical tensions and rising uncertainties in global trade, with spot gold prices approaching historical highs due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward trend, nearing $4888, setting a new historical record [1]. - The market's risk appetite has notably declined, influenced by U.S. President Trump's statements regarding Greenland and potential tariff increases on certain European countries, adding uncertainty to U.S.-Europe relations [1]. - The volatility in global financial markets has increased, leading to a surge in investor demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Activity - Central bank purchases are providing medium to long-term support for gold prices, with the Polish central bank announcing a plan to increase its gold reserves by up to 150 tons, aiming for approximately 700 tons [2]. - The Polish central bank emphasized that gold carries no credit risk and is unaffected by other countries' monetary policies, enhancing the stability of national balance sheets amid global financial uncertainty [2]. - The ongoing trend of central banks accelerating gold purchases is a significant structural factor in raising the central price of gold [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Market attention is shifting towards the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation reference for the Federal Reserve, which will be released alongside the final GDP for Q3 [2]. - The interplay between inflation and economic outlook remains unclear, but the safe-haven logic and central bank gold purchases are expected to dominate gold price movements [2]. - Geopolitical risks, trade friction uncertainties, and continuous central bank gold accumulation are core supports for the current strength in gold prices [2].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Greenland and the threats posed by the Trump administration, are significantly driving the demand for safe-haven assets like gold, which has seen a remarkable price surge, with spot gold prices exceeding $4,880 per ounce and continuing to rise in 2026 [1][7][10]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have experienced a dramatic increase, with a 70% rise in 2025 and a continuation of this bullish trend into 2026, reaching a peak of $4,890 per ounce [1][5]. - Central banks, particularly the National Bank of Poland, are increasing their gold purchases, with plans to buy an additional 150 tons, which is expected to support the long-term bullish trajectory of gold prices [2][10]. - The geopolitical climate, including threats of tariffs against European nations and military tensions, is contributing to a significant shift in investor sentiment towards gold and other precious metals [7][12]. Group 2: Broader Economic Implications - The current market environment reflects a broader distrust in fiat currencies, with major central banks diversifying their reserves into gold due to rising sovereign debt levels and geopolitical uncertainties [6][13]. - Analysts predict that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce in the near term, driven by increasing demand from both central banks and private investors seeking hard assets as a hedge against economic instability [11][14]. - The potential for a destructive trade war and the implications of the U.S. government's fiscal policies are causing investors to flee from dollar-denominated assets, further boosting the appeal of gold [7][12].

上证报中国证券网讯（刘禹希 记者严晓菲）1月21日，港股三大指数集体收涨。截至收盘，恒生指数涨0.37%，报26585.06点；恒生国企指数涨0.31%，报 9122.95点；恒生科技指数涨1.11%，报5746.3点。 恒生科技指数成分股中，华虹半导体领涨超5%，商汤-W、同程旅行、中芯国际涨幅靠前。此外，受避险情绪影响，金属与采矿板块走强，金浔资源收涨超 18%，智汇矿业、胜龙国际涨超16%，大唐黄金、赤峰黄金、灵宝黄金跟涨。 长江证券研报指出，地缘冲突升温催化市场避险需求，推动资金涌入贵金属。银河证券研报分析，在美元流动性边际宽松、全球地缘局势持续紧张加剧关键 战略资源争夺的背景下，预计黄金、白银等贵金属价格仍将维持上涨趋势。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations but closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.54% [1]. Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector led the market gains, with stocks such as Sichuan Gold (001337) and Zhaojin Gold (000506) hitting the daily limit [3][6]. - Notable price movements included Zhaojin Gold at 19.33, up 10.02%, and Sichuan Gold at 43.76, also up 10.01% [7]. Chip Industry - The chip industry saw significant activity, with stocks like Huada Technology (002185) and Longxin Technology reaching their daily limit [3]. Lithium Mining Sector - The lithium mining sector showed a rebound, with stocks such as Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) and Dazhong Mining (001203) also hitting the daily limit [3]. Sports Industry - The sports industry stocks strengthened in the afternoon, with Jinling Sports (300651) rising over 14% and Shuhua Sports (605299) hitting the daily limit at 13.04 yuan per share, giving it a market value of 5.336 billion yuan [10][12]. ETF Trading Activity - There was a notable increase in trading volume for broad-based ETFs, with the Shanghai 50 ETF (510050) exceeding 15 billion yuan in trading volume, marking the highest level since July 2015 [5]. Gold Price Surge - Gold prices surged due to safe-haven demand and a weakening dollar, with London spot gold rising over 2.5% to surpass 4,880 USD per ounce, setting a new historical high [9].

Group 1 - The domestic precious metals market showed a mostly positive trend on January 21, with platinum futures experiencing a significant increase, reaching a high of 658.10 yuan/ton and a rise of 3.73% [1] - The outlook for platinum indicates a strong upward trend, influenced by ongoing trade policy risks and geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Greenland dispute and its impact on global industrial supply chains [2] - The Polish central bank's substantial gold purchases have reinforced the market's preference for gold as a reserve asset, leading to a reallocation of funds within the precious metals sector [2] Group 2 - Short-term geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the ongoing Greenland incident, are expected to support platinum and palladium prices due to increased risk aversion [2] - The platinum market has faced physical shortages for several years, with limited mining capacity and insufficient capital expenditure, while emerging applications like hydrogen energy provide additional support for demand [2] - Industrial demand for platinum and palladium is primarily driven by their use in fuel vehicle exhaust catalysts, but the overall market remains volatile and influenced by broader market sentiments [3]

来源：证券时报网 作者：赵黎昀 进入2026年后，国际贵金属价格强势上行，1月19日再度刷新历史高点。年内，国际金价最大涨幅超8%；国际银价最 大涨幅已超过30%。 对于今年贵金属市场形式，宝城期货分析，1月上旬白银较黄金上涨明显，金银比值下行明显，后半周白银逐渐走 弱，短期资金了结意愿较强。目前已处于50左右，为近14年以来的低位，这很大程度上将促使套利资金向黄金流入。 此外，短期盘面氛围走弱，黄金避险需求升温，给予金价支撑。短期可关注金银比值的向上修复。 申银万国期货认为，从宏观面来看，近期公布的经济数据显示美国通胀压力缓解，就业仍然疲软，美国2025年12月核 心CPI反弹幅度低于预期。美联储降息预期强化，全球同步处于降息周期，宽松的流动性环境为贵金属的上涨提供有 力支撑。对于黄金而言，美元信用动摇、央行购金等逻辑支撑依然稳固，黄金长期上行趋势有望延续。 而白银和铂金兼具金融和工业属性，除受到宏观因素驱动外，还受到供需缺口的额外支撑。当前白银供给持续紧张， 矿产供应增量受限，光伏等工业需求保持稳健增长，受价格上涨刺激，白银投资需求活跃。铂金供应同样面临制约， 随着混合动力汽车的普及，铂金的尾气催化剂需求 ...

市场服务机构XTB研究主管凯瑟琳·布鲁克斯认为，这是一场"人为的危机"，近期事态表明，如果局势 不能尽快缓和，美国对格陵兰岛的威胁及此事对金融市场的影响可能会进一步加剧。 1月21日，伦敦现货黄金价格盘中突破4800美元/盎司，再创历史新高。此前一天，现货黄金刚刚创下 4700美元/盎司的新高，纽约期金也站上4700美元/盎司。 路透社认为，近期不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势提高了避险需求。分析指出，美国总统特朗普近期威胁 若无法就格陵兰岛问题达成协议，计划对欧洲国家加征关税，加剧了美欧紧张局势，带来市场波动。 另据法新社报道，受贸易担忧加剧的影响，主要债券收益率大幅上涨，当地时间20日，美国10年期国债 收益率飙升至4.3%以上。同日，美国主要股指全天下跌，标普500指数收跌超过2%。包括苹果、亚马逊 和英伟达在内的大型科技股下跌超过3%。 数据来源：Wind (责任编辑：王擎宇) 数据来源：Wind ...