截至2025年9月1日，国内黄金市场迎来一波强劲涨势——周大福、六福珠宝等品牌金饰价格均已升至1027 元/克；老凤祥、周生生也紧随其后，报1025元/克。单周涨幅普遍超过15元/克！ 与此同时，国际金价同样表现抢眼，COMEX黄金主力合约价格一度触及3552.4美元/盎司，刷新历史最高 纪录。现货黄金也一度站上3480美元/盎司，正在尝试冲击新高！ 一是美联储降息预期强化： 市场对美联储9月降息25个基点的概率超过85%.美联储主席鲍威尔此前暗示即使通胀存在上行风险，仍对 降息持开放态度。低利率环境通常利好黄金，因其不产生利息，机会成本较低。 二是避险需求激增： 特朗普总统对美联储理事库克的免职风波，引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，部分投资者转而买入黄金寻 求避险。 在黄金大黑马再度驰骋的前夕，巨象金业特奉上丰厚奖赏，助您轻松上车把握盈机！ 金价为何持续攀升？ 此外，中东局势（如以色列与胡塞武装的冲突）和俄乌局势尚未出现新的和谈进展，也加剧了市场避险情 绪。 现货黄金蓄势待发，把握本轮机遇迅速上车！ 当前形势下，多家金融机构持续看好黄金：瑞士银行已将2026年上半年国际金价目标价上调至3700美元/盎 司；美 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price showed an upward trend. New York gold rose from $3,400 to the $3,500 mark, London gold reached the $3,450 mark, and Shanghai gold touched the 790 yuan mark. The rise was largely driven by Fed Chairman Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September, but there is still a divergence on whether there will be 2 or 3 rate cuts this year. Non - farm payrolls and inflation data before the September Fed meeting should be continuously monitored [3][27]. - Last week, the upward trend of the US stock market slowed down, especially the Nasdaq index represented by technology stocks, which showed a double - top trend technically. This increased the market's risk - aversion demand and raised the risk - aversion premium of precious metals [3][27]. - Technically, New York gold has broken through the upper limit of the trading range since the second quarter with strong upward momentum; London gold is still within the trading range, and the pressure at the upper limit of the range should be continuously monitored; Shanghai gold is relatively weak due to the appreciation and appreciation expectation of the RMB. Overall, precious metals are on the rise, silver is strong, and the gold - silver ratio is in a downward trend [3][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Trend**: No detailed description provided, only mentioned relevant charts [7]. - **Indicator Price Changes**: From August 22 to August 29, COMEX gold rose from $3,417.20 to $3,516.10, a 2.89% increase; COMEX silver rose from $38.88 to $40.75, a 4.81% increase; SHFE gold futures rose from 773.40 yuan to 785.12 yuan, a 1.52% increase; SHFE silver futures rose from 9,192.00 yuan to 9,386.00 yuan, a 2.11% increase. The US dollar index rose 0.14%, the US dollar against the offshore RMB fell 0.69%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield fell 0.03, the S&P 500 fell 0.10%, and the US crude oil continuous contract rose 0.38%. The COMEX gold - silver ratio fell 1.83%, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio fell 0.58%. The SPDR gold ETF increased by 20.91, and the iShare gold ETF increased by 4.66 [8]. 3.2 Rising Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts Benefit Gold Prices - Last week, the gold price trended upward, while the US dollar index and US Treasury yields trended downward. The US stock market's upward trend slowed down, especially the Nasdaq, which was weak and showed a double - top trend [12][13]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to August 26 data, compared with the previous week, long positions changed by 490 contracts, short positions changed by - 1,231 contracts, and net long positions changed by 1,721 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to precious metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [16]. - Last week, the gold ETF holdings increased significantly. Both gold and silver rose last week, with silver rising more, and the gold - silver ratio showed a downward trend. The expectation of interest rate cuts increased last week, the yield of the 2 - year US Treasury bond declined significantly, and the 10 - 2 spread widened [18][21][25]. 3.4 Conclusion Same as the core viewpoints [3][27]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant upward cycle, with international gold prices showing strong performance and technical indicators suggesting robust buying support. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - In August, international gold prices increased by 4.81%, marking the best monthly performance in nearly four months, with spot gold closing at $3448.01 per ounce and reaching a high of $3453.82, just 0.15% away from the historical peak in April [1] - As of September, gold prices are maintaining high levels, trading within the $3445 range, indicating strong buying support from a technical perspective [1] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - The U.S. PCE price index for July rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, which has increased the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September from 85% to 87% [3] - Lower interest rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and weaken the dollar's attractiveness, creating a dual positive effect for gold prices [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risk Factors - The U.S. dollar index fell by 2.2% in August, the largest monthly decline in several months, enhancing gold's appeal to non-U.S. currency investors [4] - The U.S. bond market is showing divergence, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping by 33 basis points to 3.619%, reflecting expectations of lower short-term rates, while long-term yields slightly increased due to month-end repositioning [4] Group 4: Key Economic Indicators - The upcoming non-farm payroll report for August is a focal point for the market; weak data could accelerate rate cut expectations and push gold prices to new highs, while strong data may suppress short-term gains [5] - Consumer inflation expectations have risen to 4.8%, indicating growing public concern over rising prices, which may further enhance gold's anti-inflation properties [6] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Outlook - In a Kitco gold survey, 86% of Wall Street analysts expect gold prices to continue rising next week, with no bearish views, while 68% of online poll participants are optimistic about price increases [7] - The ability of gold prices to break historical highs will depend on two main factors: the confirmation of economic cooling trends from September employment data and the dovishness of the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [8]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices surpassing $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, driven by various factors including monetary policy expectations and geopolitical tensions [1][5]. Group 1: Price Movement - On September 1, silver prices broke the $40 per ounce mark, reaching $40.44 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 40% [1]. - The rise in silver prices is in line with other precious metals, such as gold, which also reached new highs since April [2]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The primary driver of the recent surge in precious metals is the growing market expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in its upcoming policy meeting, which typically benefits non-yielding assets like silver [5]. - Geopolitical tensions and an uncertain financial environment have increased investor demand for safe-haven assets [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market is facing a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, driven by rising demand for clean energy technologies, such as solar panels [6]. - There has been a continuous inflow of funds into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), marking the longest streak of inflows since 2020 [6]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list is seen as a potential precursor to imposing high import tariffs, which could further boost silver prices [8][9]. - Analysts note that the U.S. relies heavily on silver imports, with a dependency rate of 64%, and the potential for tariffs has not been fully priced into the market [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Citigroup maintains a bullish outlook for silver, projecting prices to reach $43 per ounce within the next 6-12 months, and recommends investors hold long positions in COMEX silver [10].

Group 1 - Silver prices have surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 40% [1] - Gold prices are approaching historical highs, trading near $3,500 per ounce, following a 1.1% increase [1] - The rise in precious metal prices is attributed to market expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in their upcoming meeting [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. employment report is anticipated to confirm a weakening labor market, which may support the case for interest rate cuts [1][2] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [1] - Silver has outperformed gold this year, driven by increased investment in silver ETFs and a reduction in available silver inventory in the London market [3] Group 3 - The silver borrowing rate remains high at around 2%, indicating a tight market [3] - Silver has been included in the U.S. critical minerals list, raising concerns about potential impacts from U.S. tariffs [3] - As of the latest report, spot gold is up 1.15% to $3,487.76 per ounce, while silver, palladium, and platinum have also seen price increases [3]

Report Information - Report Type: Precious Metals Monthly Report - Date: September 1, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The long - term bull market of gold is supported by the hedging demand and reserve diversification demand due to the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system. The medium - term bull market is supported by economic growth weakness and central bank interest - rate cut expectations caused by Trump's reforms. In the short term, gold is expected to break through the $3,500/ounce mark and start a new upward trend. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise and may outperform gold. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach, and short - hedgers can reduce the hedging ratio [5]. Section Summaries 1. 2025 January - August Precious Metals Trend Review - Gold started a new upward trend in late December 2024 due to factors such as festival consumption expectations in China and India,避险需求, and US economic stagflation risks. In early April, the release of Trump's tariff details caused gold to fall to $2,956/ounce, but then it soared to $3,500/ounce due to multiple hedging demands. After that, gold traded in the range of $3,120 - $3,500/ounce. In August, gold rebounded and reached a new closing - price high on August 29. In 2025, London gold and silver rose 29.4% and 33.5% respectively, and Shanghai gold and silver futures indices rose 26.4% and 24.4% respectively [7][10]. - In June, funds flocked to silver, platinum, and palladium. Silver reached a 15 - year high of $39.52/ounce on July 23. The correlations between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real - interest rates, crude oil, and silver have all changed [9][10]. 2. Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 US Employment Market Weakens and Inflation is Moderate - In July 2025, US non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 104,000. The unemployment rate rose, but the Sahm indicator was far below the recession threshold. Overall, the employment market deteriorated, giving the Fed a reason to restart interest - rate cuts without causing market panic about a recession. In July, the overall CPI remained at 2.7%, the core CPI rose to 3%, and the PPI increased by 0.9% month - on - month [11][14][15]. - Tariff threats pushed up inflation expectations and depressed consumer confidence. In May, 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations reached their highest levels since 1982, and the consumer confidence index hit a three - year low. After June - July, inflation expectations eased, but they rebounded in August [17][18]. 2.2 The Fed Hints at Restarting Interest - Rate Cuts - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson - Hole meeting in August was seen as opening the door for a September interest - rate cut. The market expects an 81.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut on September 17, a 43.5% probability of another 25 - basis - point cut on October 29, and 80.2% and 33.3% probabilities of 50 - basis - point and 75 - basis - point cuts this year respectively [19]. - Trump has been attacking the Fed. He has made personnel changes at the Fed, increasing his influence. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points from January to July 2026, with the federal funds rate dropping to 3 - 3.25% by July 30 [20][21][22]. 2.3 Trade Policy Developments - The high - tariff suspension period between China and the US was extended to November 9. Trump imposed new tariffs on India and threatened to impose tariffs on imported furniture, but the impact of new tariff measures on the market is small [24]. - The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, including tariff adjustments, energy and chip purchases, and investment cooperation [25][26]. 2.4 US Dollar Exchange Rate and US Treasury Yields - US Treasury 10 - year yields have fluctuated. It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury yield will continue to steepen in the second half of 2025, with a core fluctuation range of 4 - 5%. The US dollar index is expected to first decline and then rise, with a core range of 95 - 105. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is expected to first rise and then fall, with a core range of 7.1 - 7.4 [27][30][31]. 2.5 Gold Supply, Demand, and Market Structure - Gold and silver ETF holdings have rebounded since 2025. As of August 27, SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 962.5 tons, and SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,275 tons. In the week of August 19, non - commercial institutions adjusted their positions in gold and silver futures and options, with the gold fund net - long ratio dropping to 31.3% and the silver fund net - long ratio rising to 223.4% [32][34]. 3. Precious Metals Price Outlook - In the long term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the trade and monetary system support the upward movement of the gold price center. In the medium term, economic growth weakness and interest - rate cut expectations keep the gold price strong. In the short term, gold is expected to break through $3,500/ounce and start a new upward trend [35][39].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices surpassing $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong demand fundamentals [1][4]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - On September 1, silver prices broke the $40 per ounce mark, with a year-to-date increase of over 40% [1]. - Current spot silver is reported at $40.33 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of over 1.6% [1]. - The rise in silver prices is in line with other precious metals, including gold, which also reached new highs [1]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Influences - Market speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts is a primary driver of the recent surge in precious metals [1]. - Geopolitical tensions and an uncertain financial environment have increased investor demand for safe-haven assets [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The silver market is heading towards its fifth consecutive year of supply shortages, driven by rising demand for clean energy technologies like solar panels [4]. - There has been a continuous inflow of funds into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), marking the longest streak of inflows since 2020 [4]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list could lead to significant policy changes, including potential high import tariffs [5][6]. - The proposal aims to reduce U.S. dependence on imports and expand domestic production [5]. Group 5: Tariff Risks and Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that the inclusion of silver in the critical minerals list may set the stage for the U.S. to impose tariffs under Section 232, potentially reaching rates as high as 50% [6]. - The U.S. currently relies on imports for 64% of its silver needs, indicating that tariff risks may be underestimated by the market [6]. - Citigroup maintains a bullish outlook for silver prices, projecting them to reach $43 per ounce within the next 6-12 months [6].

周五（8月29日）亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡走跌，目前交投于3410美元附近，随着市场继续评估美联储 独立性面临的威胁，并等待关键的通胀数据出炉，昨日黄金价格连续第三个交易日走高，尾盘金价一度 站上3420美元关口，最终收涨0.60%，收报3417.07美元/盎司，创五周新高。 美国彭博社周四报道称，美联储理事库克起诉美国总统特朗普，因为特朗普试图以涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈为 由解雇她，从而开启了一场关于美联储独立性的历史性斗争。 RJO Futures资深市场策略师Daniel Pavilonis说："我认为这在短期内有利于黄金。我预测到今年年底前 可能涨到约3700美元/盎司。" 【技术分析】 黄金目前在日线走势上继续维持在宽幅的区间震荡中，K线开始沿着短周期均线维持较好的震荡上行走 势，短期关注下3340一带的压力带。日线黄金价格在突破前期的压力带之后日内关注下有没有回踩修复 之后的二次拉升走势。 小时级别走势上目前K线走出小幅的寸头下行K线承压短周期均线维持震荡偏弱一些走势，倾向于在短 线金价走势上可能会有一定程度的调整。 4小时级别走势上目前黄金行情暂时维持在高位震荡修复，短周期均线继续维持勾头向上仍处于偏强一 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar (Rolled steel): Oscillation with a weak bias [2] - Glass: Oscillation with a weak bias [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: Oscillation with a strong bias [4] - Silver: Oscillation with a strong bias [4] - Pulp: Weak operation [5] - Logs: Range oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a weak bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Wait - and - see [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Reverse spread [10] - PR: Wait - and - see [10] - PF: Wait - and - see [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend, with different products having different outlooks based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals, policy factors, and geopolitical situations. For example, the black industry is affected by production restrictions and demand trends; the financial market is influenced by policies and market sentiment; precious metals are driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation data; and agricultural products are affected by weather, planting area, and consumption demand [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The probability of an interest rate cut in September is high, supporting commodities. The expectation of domestic blast furnace production restrictions has been temporarily disproven, and the impact on demand is small. Global iron ore shipments have decreased slightly, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coal and coke**: Coal supply accidents are frequent, and production reduction expectations may cause supply fluctuations. Coal mine inventories are at a low level, and downstream demand is high. Short - term price adjustments are limited, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the market sentiment is released [2]. - **Rolled steel (Rebar)**: The production restriction policy in Tangshan is clear, but the reduction is less than expected. Overall demand is difficult to show a counter - seasonal performance, and there will be a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. Spot demand for rebar is weak, and futures prices are looking for support after a significant adjustment [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly in the short term. The key for the 01 contract is the cold - repair path. The long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real estate industry [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The market has rebounded, and it is recommended to increase risk preference and long - position holdings. The release of relevant policies and international trade exchanges may have an impact on the market [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are fluctuating, and the trend of Treasury bonds is weak. It is recommended that long - position holders hold lightly [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Factors such as the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold - buying behavior support the prices of gold and silver. Although some factors may cause short - term fluctuations, the upward - driving logic has not completely reversed [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost support for pulp prices is weak, and the paper - making industry has low profitability and high inventory pressure. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and prices are expected to decline [5]. - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume of logs is relatively stable, and the supply pressure is not large. The cost support is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: The demand for soybean oil is promising due to strong export sales and relevant policies. The production and inventory of palm oil are in a certain state, and the demand growth provides long - term support. The inventory of domestic oils shows different trends, and prices are expected to oscillate after a previous sharp rise [5]. Oilseeds and Meals - **Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 1, and soybean No. 2**: The US soybean planting area has been significantly reduced, but the single - yield is expected to increase. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with weather and import volume being key factors [5]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply is increasing. The demand is restricted by high temperatures, and prices are expected to oscillate with a weak bias in the future [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and the demand is relatively stable. The inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term [10]. Polyester - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: These products are affected by factors such as the geopolitical situation, oil prices, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost. Different products have different outlooks, including oscillation, wait - and - see, and reverse spread [10].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年08月28日16时49分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.21%，沪银主力收涨0.56%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议分批达成，避险需求回落；美国经 济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期反弹。②避险属性方面，特朗普试图解雇美联储理事库克，引发外界担忧美联 储的独立性。白宫官员称特朗普已签署行政令，美中关税休战期再延90天。③货币属性方面，鲍威尔暗示美联储可能需要降息， 但将谨慎行事。鲍威尔宣布美联储最新政策框架，回归灵活通胀目标。美国最新企业设备支出彰显韧性，但消费者对劳动力市场的 信心不断恶化。目前市场预期美联储9月降息概率从非农前40%左右快速飙升至80%以上，且年内降息次数预期从1次涨至2到3次 。美元指数和美债收益率承压回落；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏强压制国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡 偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...