1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market mostly rose during the day session, with precious metals leading the gains. International precious metals and oil futures generally rose, while London base metals mostly declined. In the financial market, A - shares and the Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performances, and overseas markets also had various trends. Macroeconomic data from different countries and regions showed different situations, and there were many policy - related and event - driven factors in various industries [5][26][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures mostly rose during the day session, with precious metals like Shanghai silver up over 11%, Shanghai gold up over 7%, and platinum and palladium up over 6%. At night - session close, crude oil futures rose over 3% and Shanghai silver rose over 1%. International precious metals futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 1.04% and COMEX silver up 5.36%. The US oil and Brent oil main contracts rose 1.99% and 2.09% respectively. London base metals mostly fell [5] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - China's service industry PMI in January rose slightly to 52.3, continuing the expansion trend. The estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in January was 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. The People's Bank of China held a credit market work meeting. The US Department of Labor resumed normal operation. US private - sector employment in January increased less than expected. The US Treasury maintained the quarterly refinancing scale at $125 billion. The EU's investigation of Chinese enterprises using the "Foreign Subsidies Regulation" was of concern. China and the US leaders had a phone call. The release dates of the US January non - farm payrolls report and CPI report were rescheduled [9][11] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of February 4, 2026, China's methanol port inventory decreased to 1411,000 tons. Morgan Stanley raised the short - term Brent oil price forecast. The EIA report showed a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory and an increase in strategic petroleum reserve inventory [13][15] Metal Futures - Goldman Sachs believed there was a significant upward risk to the December 2026 gold price forecast. An Indonesian organization urged to stop the approval of a mining company's quota. Goldman Sachs and Macquarie raised the 2026 nickel price forecasts. The US planned to establish a key - mineral price - floor system. A Reuters survey showed that gold was expected to reach a new high in 2026 [17][18] Black - Series Futures - As of the week ending February 4, national building - material production and apparent demand decreased. Indonesian coal miners suspended spot coal exports due to a production - cut plan [21] Agricultural Product Futures - China will stabilize farmers' income from growing grain. India's sugar mills may not sell all the quota, but still expect to export over 1 million tons. Malaysia's palm - oil inventory is expected to decline in January [23] Financial Market Finance - A - shares rose on Wednesday, with coal and photovoltaic sectors surging. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose slightly. The number of new margin trading accounts in January increased. The HKEX CEO said there were over 400 companies queuing for listing [26] Industry - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development will develop affordable housing. In January, the transaction volume of second - hand houses in 20 cities was relatively active, but there were structural contradictions. China will support the biomanufacturing industry. The cultural and tourism and fire - rescue departments issued a notice on new - type performance venues. The estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in January was 900,000 [27][29][31] Overseas - Iran - US nuclear talks will be held in Oman. The release dates of US economic data were rescheduled. The Fed will not adjust large - bank capital levels in 2026. The nomination process of the Fed chair nominee was controversial. The US service industry PMI in January fell slightly. The US proposed to raise the loan limit of the Export - Import Bank. The eurozone CPI in January rose at a low level. Cambodia launched an anti - telecom - fraud campaign [32][34][36] International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with AMD's sharp drop dragging down the Nasdaq. European stocks also had mixed performances. The South Korean composite index hit a new high. The Nasdaq proposed a "fast - track inclusion" rule. Some companies' financial reports and outlooks were released, with different performances [37][39][40] Commodities - Domestic and international precious metals and oil futures mostly rose, while London base metals mostly fell. Zhongcai Futures made over $500 million from short - selling silver futures. Indonesian coal miners suspended spot coal exports [44][46] Bonds - The yields of bank - to - bank bonds fluctuated slightly, and Treasury bond futures fell. China will issue RMB 14 billion of Treasury bonds in Hong Kong. The US Treasury maintained the bond issuance scale, and US bond yields fluctuated [47][48][49] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose. South Korea's foreign - exchange reserves decreased in January [51] Upcoming Data Releases - Various economic data from different countries and regions will be released at specific times, including stock and bond purchases, trade accounts, manufacturing orders, etc [53] Upcoming Events - There are many events scheduled for February 5 and subsequent days, including central - bank interest - rate decisions, press conferences, corporate earnings releases, and industry seminars [55]

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant decline in the prices of non-ferrous metal stocks, with Tianqi Lithium Industries (002466) dropping by 12.73% to HKD 43.2, and other companies like Minmetals Resources (01208) and Jiangxi Copper (600362) also experiencing notable losses [1][1][1] - On February 5, the international precious metals market saw a downturn, with spot gold falling below USD 4,800 per ounce and spot silver experiencing a drop of 15%, falling below USD 75 [1][1][1] - Domestic commodity futures markets reflected this trend, with lithium carbonate futures hitting a daily limit down and copper futures dropping nearly 4% [1][1][1] Group 2 - According to a report from Guotai Junan Securities, the gold and silver markets are expected to become increasingly volatile, influenced by long-term factors such as the credibility of the US dollar and shifting asset preferences [1][1][1] - The report suggests that the frequency of global black swan events may lead to a temporary reduction in risk appetite, alongside rising inflationary pressures in the US that could tighten interest rate expectations [1][1][1] - It is noted that the historical volatility of gold and silver may also manifest in other major asset classes [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant decline in the prices of various metal stocks, with Tianqi Lithium Industries (09696) dropping by 12.73% to HKD 43.2, and other companies like Minmetals Resources (01208) and Jiangxi Copper (00358) also experiencing notable losses [1][1][1] - On February 5, the international precious metals market saw a downturn, with spot gold falling below USD 4,800 per ounce and spot silver experiencing a drop of 15%, falling below USD 75 [1][1][1] - The domestic commodity futures market reflected this trend, with lithium carbonate futures hitting a daily limit down and copper futures dropping nearly 4% [1][1][1] Group 2 - According to a report from Guotai Junan Securities, the gold and silver markets are expected to become increasingly volatile, influenced by long-term dollar credit dynamics and shifting asset preferences [1][1][1] - The report suggests that the frequency of global black swan events is leading to a temporary reduction in risk appetite, while rising inflationary pressures in the U.S. are tightening expectations for interest rate cuts [1][1][1] - The potential for a confluence of these factors may lead to significant historical volatility in gold and silver, which could also affect other major asset classes [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations around 0.7768, with a lack of a clear trend due to a balance of risk factors and policy divergence between the US and Switzerland [1] Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The core of the fundamental analysis is the policy divergence between the US and Switzerland, alongside a counterbalance of risk aversion [1] - The Federal Reserve's January minutes indicated a hawkish stance, emphasizing the need for more evidence of inflation cooling before considering rate cuts, with a less than 9% probability of a rate cut in March [1] - High interest rate expectations support the USD's yield advantage, attracting capital inflows and providing upward support for the exchange rate [1] - The Swiss National Bank maintains a neutral stance without following the global tightening trend, with the CPI for December 2025 at 1.1%, within the 0-2% target range, indicating no urgent need for tightening [1] - The current CHF exchange rate is considered reasonable, with weak intervention intentions from the central bank, supported by its safe-haven status and moderate economic recovery [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Market Sentiment - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and disruptions in Red Sea shipping, have heightened risk aversion, leading to capital inflows into the CHF, which suppresses the exchange rate [1] - The recent pullback in US equities has triggered a sell-off in risk assets, highlighting the USD's safe-haven attributes and attracting some risk-averse capital [1] - The interplay between these factors results in a lack of a clear directional trend for the exchange rate, leading to continued narrow fluctuations [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook shows a consolidation phase with a balance between bulls and bears, with the exchange rate hovering around the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages [2] - Key resistance levels are identified at 0.7780-0.7800, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a rise towards 0.7850, while support is at 0.7740, with a drop below that level indicating a test of the critical 0.7700 line [2] - Indicators show weak bullish and bearish momentum, with MACD near the zero line and RSI in a neutral range of 48-52, suggesting a potential upcoming breakout [2] - The focus for today is on the US initial jobless claims data, which will directly impact Fed policy expectations and the USD's performance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by economic data and geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Iran negotiations [2][6]. Economic Data Summary - COMEX gold prices rose initially but closed at $4986.4 per ounce, reflecting a 1.04% increase, while domestic SHFE gold prices fell to 1113.78 yuan per gram, down 0.64% [2][6]. - The ISM reported that the January services PMI was 53.8, unchanged from December and at the highest level since October 2024, indicating better-than-expected performance, although the new orders index showed a slowdown [2][6]. - The ADP reported an addition of 22,000 jobs in January, significantly below the market expectation of 45,000, suggesting a weakening labor market which may raise expectations for interest rate cuts [2][6]. Geopolitical Developments Summary - The US announced the resumption of negotiations with Iran, which were previously on the verge of collapse, scheduled for February 6 [2][6]. - The fluctuations in gold prices are closely tied to geopolitical factors, particularly the US-Iran talks, which may influence the potential for gold prices to strengthen again [2][6]. - The article notes that the volatility in geopolitical situations complicates market predictions, indicating that trends remain unclear and require further observation [2][6].

（原标题：?黄金多头们的福音! 美国1月"小非农"远低于预期 招聘"急刹车"点燃降息预期） 智通财经APP获悉，最新的"小非农"数据显示，美国私营企业们1月新增就业岗位远远低于经济学家们 普遍预期，表明年初美国劳动力市场继续放缓。根据ADP研究机构(ADP Research)周三发布的美国私营 部门就业数据(该项数据号称"小非农")，在对前一个月数据向下进行小幅修正后，1月份的美国私营部 门就业人数仅仅增加了2.2万人，远远低于4.8万人这一经济学家们多次下调后的预测中值，并且低于机 构调查所覆盖的经济学家们给出的最低增长预期。"小非农"公布之后，"CME美联储观察工具"显示6月 与12月降息概率均有所扩张。 ?另一方面，对于上周五创下40年来最猛烈跌幅且波动率罕见超越比特币的全球传统避险资产——黄金 而言，大幅低于预期的美国就业数据可谓利多金价。就业市场意外走弱，进而意味着市场更愿意押注降 息/更鸽牌的美联储货币政策路径，也即意味着名义/实际利率下行趋势以及美元走弱趋势，进而推动持 有无息资产黄金的机会成本下降，从而利多金价;这一机制在黄金牛市主题交易中经常出现，即弱就业 数据带动降息押注、压低收益率从而推 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals oscillated and rebounded. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 7.29%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 11.22%, the main contract of platinum closed up 6.73%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 6.29%. The short - term safe - haven risk has increased due to geopolitical fluctuations. The new Fed Chairman is expected to be hawkish, the US employment is weak, inflation pressure still exists, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is nearing the end. Tensions in the Middle East have further escalated, and the nomination of a new Fed official has triggered hawkish expectations. The US PPI in December had the largest month - on - month increase in five months, indicating potential inflation acceleration. The market expects the Fed to complete interest rate cuts this year, with the next cut possibly in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields rebounded from lows. Regarding the commodity attribute, there is a risk of demand falsification for silver, platinum, and palladium. It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term, oscillating at a low level in the medium - term, and maintaining a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract was $4970.50 per ounce, up 6.19% from the previous day and down 4.04% from the previous week. The London gold price was $4920.95 per ounce, up 4.37% from the previous day and down 2.83% from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1141.70 yuan per gram, up 4.38% from the previous day and down 3.75% from the previous week [2]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: The position of Comex gold was 488,463 lots, down 7.39% from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 178,544 lots, down 0.42% from the previous day and 19.75% from the previous week. The LBMA gold inventory was 9106 tons, unchanged from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract was $84.92 per ounce, up 7.13% from the previous day and down 24.42% from the previous week. The London silver price was $87.49 per ounce, up 6.73% from the previous day and down 21.58% from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 23,511 yuan per kilogram, up 9.63% from the previous day and down 19.54% from the previous week [4]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: The position of Comex silver was 156,637 lots, up 3.04% from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 3,558,120 lots, up 4.80% from the previous day and down 18.24% from the previous week. The total visible inventory was 41,326 tons, down 0.14% from the previous day and 1.17% from the previous week [4]. 3.3 Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract was $2212.50 per ounce, up 4.43% from the previous day and down 16.35% from the previous week. The London platinum price was $2247.00 per ounce, up 4.76% from the previous day and down 15.21% from the previous week. The closing price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 599.85 yuan per gram, up 4.69% from the previous day and down 13.67% from the previous week [7]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract was 58,472 lots, down 4.83% from the previous day and 5.22% from the previous week. The NYMEX platinum inventory was 19 tons, down 9.01% from the previous week [7]. 3.4 Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [8]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract was $1745.00 per ounce, up 1.22% from the previous day and down 10.54% from the previous week. The London palladium price was $1817.00 per ounce, down 9.31% from the previous day and 8.23% from the previous week. The closing price of the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 461.00 yuan per gram, up 2.32% from the previous day and down 8.53% from the previous week [9]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract was 14,843 lots, down 4.00% from the previous day and 14.29% from the previous week. The NYMEX palladium inventory was 7 tons, down 6.95% from the previous week [9]. 3.5 Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **Monetary Policy**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value. The discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value. The interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25% from the previous value. The Fed's total assets are $6638.091 billion, up 0.00% from the previous value [10]. - **Inflation Data**: The year - on - year CPI is 2.70%, unchanged from the previous value. The month - on - month CPI is 0.00%, down 0.30% from the previous value. The year - on - year core CPI is 2.60%, unchanged from the previous value. The month - on - month core CPI is 0.00%, down 0.30% from the previous value [10]. - **Economic Growth Data**: The annualized year - on - year GDP is 2.40%, up 0.40% from the previous value. The annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP is 4.40%, up 0.60% from the previous value. The unemployment rate is 4.40%, down 0.10% from the previous value [10]. - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 95.55, down 55.24% from the previous value. The VIX index is 18.00, up 10.16% from the previous day and 10.09% from the previous week. The CRB commodity index is 305.14, down 4.67% from the previous day and 3.92% from the previous week [12]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed's interest rate remaining in the range of 350 - 375 basis points in March 2026 is 91.1%. The probability distribution of interest rate ranges changes over different meeting dates in 2026 - 2027 [15].

Macro Economic Background - The domestic economy shows structural recovery, with GDP growth of 5.0% in 2025, meeting the target set during the "Two Sessions" [12] - Industrial production remains resilient, with industrial added value in December 2025 rising to 5.2% year-on-year, and high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors outperforming with growth rates of 9.4% and 9.2% respectively [12] - Investment growth has slowed, with fixed asset investment down 3.8% year-on-year, while consumption shows mixed performance, with retail sales growth dropping to 0.9% in December 2025 [12][14] - Exports have rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% in December 2025, particularly in high-tech products like automobiles and integrated circuits, which grew by 71.6% and 47.8% respectively [14][15] A-Share Market - In January, the A-share market experienced a "New Year Rally," leading to a spring market trend, with a significant increase in trading volume, averaging over 30 trillion yuan [9][12] - The outlook for February suggests a stable pre-holiday market, with a high likelihood of a "spring market" rally post-holiday, focusing on sectors with clear policy guidance and high earnings certainty [5][9] Fixed Income Market - The fixed income market in January saw a continuation of monetary easing, with bond yields declining [5][9] - The outlook for February indicates a focus on structural opportunities within a fluctuating market environment [5][9] Currency Exchange Rates - The US dollar index is expected to show a fluctuating pattern, while the Chinese yuan is anticipated to remain strong in the short term due to a lack of significant rebound in the dollar and strong potential settlement forces [5][9] Overseas Markets - The US bond market is expected to remain volatile, influenced by economic fundamentals and changes in interest rate expectations [5][9] - The US stock market is projected to experience fluctuations, supported by resilient economic data, but scrutiny on technology companies' earnings may increase during the earnings season [5][9] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to remain strong, buoyed by domestic spring market dynamics and regulatory easing on IPOs [5][9] Commodities - Gold prices are facing adjustment pressure after a rapid increase, with expectations of wide fluctuations [5][9] - Oil prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to geopolitical uncertainties and increased energy consumption during winter [5][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of the US economy, with strong GDP growth and positive investor sentiment despite geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates [1][2][4]. - In January, the S&P 500 index rose by 1.4%, with all eight sectors gaining, particularly the energy sector, which surged by 14.4% due to rising oil prices [1]. - The US GDP annualized growth rate for Q3 2025 was reported at 4.4%, slightly above market expectations, marking the highest growth rate in nearly eight quarters [1][2]. Group 2 - The Federal Reserve decided to pause interest rate changes during its first FOMC meeting of 2026, indicating a stable financial environment with ample liquidity, while inflation remains above the target [2]. - The earnings growth of the "Tech Seven" companies significantly outpaced the broader S&P 500, with projected earnings growth rates of 40.3% for 2025 compared to 15.4% for the S&P 500 excluding these companies [2]. - The S&P 500 index has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6% over the last century and 12.8% over the past decade, indicating strong long-term performance [3]. Group 3 - The US technology stocks are leading in earnings growth compared to global markets, with the NASDAQ 100 expected to grow by 21.1% year-on-year [3]. - The necessity of investing in US equities is emphasized, as the US market accounts for 47.4% of global market capitalization, representing a significant opportunity for investors [3][6]. - The article suggests that a balanced investment strategy should include a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, with potential diversification into gold, digital assets, and foreign stocks [6]. Group 4 - The outlook for the US economy remains positive, with expectations of a steady upward trend in the S&P 500, supported by the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair [4]. - The article notes that the stock market's performance is crucial for political support, especially in an election year, suggesting that the government may take actions to bolster market confidence [4]. - Short-term market fluctuations may present buying opportunities for investors, as the overall sentiment remains optimistic despite potential volatility [4]. Group 5 - The article discusses the advantages of ETFs in the US market, highlighting their liquidity and diverse types, which cater to various investment strategies [5]. - It is noted that non-leveraged ETFs, particularly those tracking major indices, are less risky compared to individual stocks and are suitable for long-term holding [5]. - Investors are encouraged to consider sector-specific ETFs, such as those focused on semiconductors and biotechnology, to capitalize on industry trends [6].

摘要周三(2月4日)亚洲时段，贵金属止跌反弹，美联储释放降息信号、美国政府停摆结束及美印贸易协 议推进，叠加交易所调整风控措施，共同提振贵金属市场情绪，推动金银价格上涨。现货金银持续走 高，日内均涨超2%。现货白银站上88美元上方，现货黄金突破5070美元/盎司。 周三(2月4日)亚洲时段，贵金属止跌反弹，美联储释放降息信号、美国政府停摆结束及美印贸易协议推 进，叠加交易所调整风控措施，共同提振贵金属市场情绪，推动金银价格上涨。现货金银持续走高，日 内均涨超2%。现货白银站上88美元上方，现货黄金突破5070美元/盎司。 周二，美元指数震荡下行，盘中虽有反弹，但随后迅速回吐全部涨幅，最终收跌0.22%，报97.39；基准 的10年期美债收益率收报4.267%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.578%。金银在连续 两个交易日大幅下跌后强劲反弹，现货黄金开盘后迅速上涨，并冲回4900美元大关上方，欧美盘时段均 在4950美元上下震荡，盘中一度创下逾320美元的历史最大单日涨幅，最终收涨6.15%，创2008年11月 以来最大单日涨幅，报4945.74美元/盎司；现货白银盘中一度大涨超10%，并重回8 ...