Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly preview of hot events and their potential impacts on the futures market, including economic data releases, policy changes, and geopolitical events [2][3]. Weekly Key Focus - On August 20 at 09:15, the People's Bank of China will announce the August 2025 Loan Prime Rate (LPR), expected to be flat with the previous value [2]. - On August 21 at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting, and its impact on relevant futures prices should be noted [2][9]. - On August 22 at 22:00, Fed Chair Powell will speak on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Symposium [2][15]. - Attention should also be paid to factors such as domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials on the futures market [2]. Weekly Hot Event Previews August 18 - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, which may have a negative impact on stock index futures and related futures prices such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, and aluminum [3]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky will meet with US President Trump in Washington to discuss details of ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict. If successful, a tri - party meeting of the US, Russia, and Ukraine may be arranged. This may suppress the short - term prices of gold and silver futures and help the stock index futures prices rise [4][5]. August 19 - The US will announce the building permits and new housing starts for July. If the figures are slightly lower than the previous values, it will slightly suppress the rise of base metal futures prices [6]. August 20 - China will announce the August LPR. If it remains unchanged, the impact on commodity futures, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures will be basically neutral [7]. - The US will announce the EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending August 15. If the inventory continues to increase, it will suppress the rise of crude oil and related closing futures prices [8]. August 21 - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting, and its impact on relevant futures prices should be noted [9]. - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 21 - 23, and its impact on the futures market prices should be noted [10]. - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the Eurozone's August SPGI Manufacturing PMI. If it is slightly lower than the previous value, it will slightly suppress the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures prices but slightly help the prices of gold and silver futures rise [11]. - The US will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16. If the number is slightly lower than the previous value, it will slightly help the rise of industrial product futures prices (except for gold and silver futures) but slightly suppress the prices of gold and silver futures [12]. - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the US's August SPGI Manufacturing PMI. If it is slightly higher than the previous value, it will slightly help the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures prices and also slightly help the prices of gold and silver futures rise [13]. - The US will announce the existing home sales for July [14]. August 22 - Fed Chair Powell will speak on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Symposium, and its impact on the futures market prices should be noted [15]. August 24 - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field in mid - August, covering 9 categories and 50 types of products [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, L01 rose 0.1% to close at 7351 with a total position reduction of about 6100 lots, while PP01 fell 0.1% to close at 7084 with a total position reduction of about 6300 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish technical trend. - The main position indicators in Dayue's five major indicators show that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are bearish recently. - The basis of the L main contract is - 101, and that of the PP main contract is 16, with the basis of the main contracts narrowing. - Fundamentally, in July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 percentage points, contracting for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it returned to the fundamentals. Oil prices fluctuated and declined in the short term. - In terms of supply and demand, the overall demand for PE agricultural films fell short of expectations, and the film - making start - up rate was low. The downstream of PP is gradually moving into the peak season, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. has improved slightly. - The inventory in the polyolefin industry chain is high. It is expected that the main contracts of L and PP will fluctuate this week. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Position Changes**: L01 rose 0.1% to 7351 with a reduction of about 6100 lots, and PP01 fell 0.1% to 7084 with a reduction of about 6300 lots [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contracts of L and PP are running below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish technical trend [5]. - **Basis Situation**: The basis of the L main contract is - 101, and that of the PP main contract is 16, with the basis of the main contracts narrowing [5]. 3.2 Production Profit | Contract | Latest | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | | L Oil - based | - 151 | 126 | | L Coal - based | 963 | - 7 | | PP Oil - based | - 141 | 107 | | PP Coal - based | 418 | - 59 | | PDH | - 411 | - 144 | [6] 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4319.5 with a growth rate of 20.5% [17]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906 with a growth rate of 11.0% [19]. 3.4 Inventory - The polyolefin industry chain has high inventory. There are also multiple inventory trend charts for PE and PP, including comprehensive inventory, social inventory, and warehouse receipts [5][15][21][24][27][30] 3.5 Start - up Rate - There are start - up rate trend charts for PE and PP, showing the start - up rate changes throughout the year [33][36] 3.6 Profit - There are production cash - flow trend charts for PE (coal - chemical and oil - based) and PP (coal - chemical, oil - based, and PDH) [39][42] 3.7 External Market Price - There are charts showing the internal - external price differences of polyolefins, as well as the US - dollar - denominated prices of PE and PP [45][48][50] 3.8 Downstream - There are charts showing the average start - up rates of PE and PP downstream industries [53][56]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The aluminum production capacity utilization rate reached a new high of 98.4% in July, the highest level since 2012 [3] - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [5] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a decline in key metrics, with significant drops in new construction and sales areas [23][76] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, indicating a contraction in liquidity [11][20] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 46.09 in July, down 6.16% month-on-month [11][20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Key enterprises' average daily crude steel output hit a yearly low in late July [2] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.09%, down 0.15 percentage points [42] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in new construction area for real estate was -20% for the first half of 2025 [23] Industrial Products Chain - The average operating rate for semi-steel tires was 74.35%, down 0.10 percentage points [2] - Major commodity prices showed mixed performance, with cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum prices increasing by 1.26%, 0.33%, and 0.68% respectively [2] Exports Chain - The new export orders PMI for China was 47.10% in July, down 0.6 percentage points [4] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates was 1200.73, down 2.56% [4] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.23%, with the engineering machinery sector performing best at +6.21% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market was 0.57, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, supported by government policies [5] - Caution is advised regarding potential volatility in futures prices, particularly in coking coal [5]

大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（8.4~8.8） 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜震荡整理，沪铜主力合约微涨0.11%，收报于78490元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价,美 国关税再起波澜，全球不稳定因素仍存。国内方面，消费进入淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产 业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存155850吨，上周出现小 幅增加，上期所铜库存较上周增9390吨至81933吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | 中国年度供 ...

Group 1: PMI and Economic Indicators - July manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.3%, remaining below the expansion threshold for four consecutive months, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Construction PMI decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, still above the threshold, indicating a slowdown in expansion[3] - Service sector PMI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 50%, indicating stagnation[3] Group 2: Price Trends and Profit Margins - Prices of various commodities increased significantly in July, with coking coal up 32.2%, iron ore up 10.4%, glass up 16.0%, and soda ash up 8.6%[9] - The main raw material purchase price index rose above the threshold for the first time since March, reaching 51.5%, potentially supporting PPI in July[9] - The gap between the main raw material purchase price index and the factory price index widened from 2.2% to 3.2%, indicating potential pressure on corporate profits[9] Group 3: Demand and Inventory Trends - New orders, new export orders, and backlogged orders all declined in July, with new orders down 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%[10] - Raw material inventory index and finished goods inventory index fell to 47.7% and 47.4%, respectively, suggesting a slowdown in production replenishment and active destocking by companies[10] - The production index recorded at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a marginal slowdown in production activities[10] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Ongoing external trade frictions and internal growth stabilization policies remain key focus areas, with upcoming negotiations on tariff agreements between China and the U.S.[25] - The political bureau meeting emphasized "orderly exit of backward production capacity," which may impact production progress in key industries[28] - Risks include potential unfavorable outcomes from U.S.-China tariff negotiations and slower-than-expected implementation of growth stabilization policies[29]

Economic Overview - The latest data indicates that the US economy is facing increasing risks of stagflation, with the services PMI almost stagnating and the manufacturing PMI dropping to a near one-year low, suggesting a complex situation of slowing economic activity and persistent inflation pressures [1][4] Services Sector - In July, the services PMI fell from 50.8 in June to 50.1, significantly below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating that the expansion pace of the services sector has nearly halted [2] - The services price index rose from 67.5 in June to 69.9 in July, approaching levels seen at the end of 2022, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures in the services sector due to tariffs and immigration policies [2] - The employment index decreased from 47.2 to 46.4, indicating a contraction in hiring levels and a weakening job market [2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI declined from 49 in June to 48 in July, falling short of the market expectation of 49.5, further exacerbating the contraction trend [3] - Although the output index showed an acceleration in expansion, the new orders index slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction zone, with employment contraction reaching a near one-year high [3] - The price index decreased from 69.7 to 64.8, indicating a slowdown in inflation pressure, yet it remains significantly above the post-pandemic average [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The PMI data reveals stagflation risks, presenting the Federal Reserve with a challenging policy decision in the third quarter, balancing a weakening job market against rising inflation due to tariffs [4] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates in September but could lower rates in October and December, with year-end policy rates projected to drop to 3.75%-4% [4] - The current economic conditions, characterized by slowing growth and a pressured job market alongside persistent inflation, complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the macro - aspect, copper prices declined from a high level this week, with COMEX copper plummeting 24% in a single week, fully closing the nearly $3000 price gap with LME copper in the past six months. Overseas non - farm data was worse than expected, and previous data was significantly revised down, increasing market expectations of US economic pressure. The Fed maintained the interest rate, and Powell's slightly hawkish stance responded to Trump's administration's pressure for rate cuts. Tariffs are gradually affecting demand. In China, the "anti - involution" movement - driven price increase has ended, but policy continuity will continue, and more implemented policies need attention. - In terms of industrial fundamentals, COMEX copper's pricing of a 50% tariff in its price is unsustainable. The US domestic and export copper trade attractiveness has decreased, affecting COMEX copper positions. After the 50% tariff on downstream primary copper products and exemption for refined copper, the $3000 price gap between US and international copper prices has rapidly converged. The flow of the US's 20 - year high copper inventory and the resulting demand shock will put pressure on international copper prices, and weak demand will be reflected in LME inventory accumulation [5][89]. Summary by Directory Macro - aspect - **PMI**: In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI of the US and Europe declined. The euro - zone's July manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, with Germany at 49.2% and France at 48.4%. The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 3.4 percentage points month - on - month. China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. New orders and new export orders both declined, and demand sub - indicators dropped faster [14]. - **Price Performance**: During the "anti - involution" movement in July, domestic commodities generally rose, but copper prices were subdued. If the 50% copper tariff is implemented, price pressure will increase. Domestic macro - policies are driving, but overseas expectations are still insufficient, with rate - cut expectations priced in for September. The Fed's independence has been repeatedly challenged, and the market is still tracking US economic data, with the latest manufacturing PMI significantly dropping below the boom - bust line [15]. Industrial Fundamentals - **Copper Concentrate Supply** - **Global Production**: In December 2024, global copper mine production was 2.096 million tons, up 4.96% year - on - year, and 22.835 million tons for the whole year, up 2.54%. In 2025 May, it was 2.006 million tons, up 6.14% year - on - year, and 9.524 million tons from January to May, up 3.27%. In May 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons [23]. - **China's Imports**: In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrate, up 12.3% month - on - month and 1.7% year - on - year, and 28.114 million tons for the whole year, up 2.1%. In June 2025, imports continued to decline. In May, imports were about 2.3497 million tons, up only 1.77% year - on - year, and 14.7543 million tons from January to May, up 6.4% [27]. - **TC**: On August 1, the SMM imported copper concentrate index was - $42.09 per dry ton, up $0.54 from the previous period. The SMM nine - port copper concentrate inventory was 521,600 physical tons, down 39,300 physical tons from the previous period. The 2025 long - term copper concentrate processing fee benchmark was set at $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound [31]. - **Refined Copper Production**: In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 39,400 tons month - on - month, up 3.47% and 14.21% year - on - year. From January to July, cumulative production increased by 820,800 tons, up 11.82%. In August, due to supply shortages, production is expected to decrease by 6,000 tons month - on - month, down 0.51%, but increase by 154,800 tons year - on - year, up 15.27% [37]. - **Refined Copper Imports and Exports**: In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, up 6.49% year - on - year, and exported 457,500 tons, up 63.86%. In 2025 from January to June, imports were 1.6461 million tons, down 8.6%, and exports were 307,900 tons, up 1.97% [43]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: In December 2024, China imported 217,500 tons of copper scrap, up 25% month - on - month and 9% year - on - year, and 2.25 million tons for the whole year, up 13.26%. In June 2025, imports were 183,200 physical tons, down 1.06% month - on - month but up 8.06% year - on - year. From January to June, imports were 1.1454 million tons, down 0.5% [48]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Spread**: The weekly operating rate of recycled copper rods was 29.96%, up 0.67 percentage points from last week and 11.52 percentage points year - on - year. The average price spread between scrap and refined copper rods was $654 per ton this week, narrowing by $321. Due to weak terminal consumption, the inventory of recycled copper rod sample enterprises increased by 700 tons to 5,950 tons [51]. - **Consumption - end** - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024 from January to December, power investment was 1.168722 trillion yuan, up 12.14%, and grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, up 15.26%. In 2025 from January to June, power investment was 363.5 billion yuan, up 5.9%, and grid investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 14.6% [52]. - **Wire and Cable**: No specific data on wire and cable consumption was provided, only related charts. - **Air - conditioners**: In 2024 from January to December, air - conditioner production was 265.9844 million units, up 9.7%. In 2025 from January to June, production was 163.2961 million units, up 5.5%, with a decline in monthly production and a slowdown in year - on - year growth as the industry entered the off - season [57]. - **Automobiles**: In 2025 from January to June, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million units, up 12.5% and 11.4% respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million units, up 41.4% and 40.3% respectively, accounting for 44.3% of total vehicle sales [62]. - **Real Estate**: In 2024 from January to December, real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, down 27.7%, and new construction area was down 23%. In June 2025, the completion area was 226 million square meters, down 14.3%, and new construction area was down 20%, with the "guaranteeing housing delivery" policy showing initial results [65]. Other Elements - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 474,000 tons, an increase of 82,900 tons. LME copper inventory increased by 48,500 tons to 141,800 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 12,000 tons to 72,500 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 46,500 tons to 259,700 tons. As of July 31, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 81,100 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons [71]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Position**: As of July 29, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 37,347 contracts, an increase of 3,657 contracts. Non - commercial long positions were 74,650 contracts, with only a 25 - contract increase, and non - commercial short positions were 37,303 contracts, a decrease of 3,632 contracts [73]. - **Premium and Discount**: As of August 1, LME copper was at a spot discount of - $49.25 per ton, returning to a large - discount pattern. The domestic spot maintained a premium, but the term structure flattened, indicating weak demand. The market was in a supply - and - demand double - weak pattern, with transactions mainly for rigid demand [83]. - **Basis**: As of August 1, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper average price and the continuous third - month contract was 310 yuan per ton [85]. Strategy - Domestic copper positions remain low, and after the sharp decline of COMEX copper, most positions have left. The multi - empty game at the current price level is not intense. More attention should be paid to LME copper variables. After taking profit on the near - month short call options, it is recommended to increase far - month put option positions at low prices. In the important time window of August - September, copper prices will face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to inventory and capital flow changes [6][90].

Economic Indicators - The US services PMI stagnated at 50.1 in July, down from 50.8 in June, significantly below the market expectation of 51.5[3] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 48 in July, down from 49 in June, also below the expected 49.5, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[4] - The employment index in the services sector dropped to 46.4, indicating a significant contraction in hiring[4] Inflation and Employment - The price index for services rose to 69.9, close to levels seen at the end of 2022, indicating heightened inflationary pressures[4] - The expected CPI growth may rebound, complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to balance employment and inflation[3] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly in Q3, with inflation expected to rebound, leading to potential interest rate cuts in October and December[3] Market Expectations - Following the PMI data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts decreased by 5 basis points to 58 basis points for the year[3] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain interest rates in September, with potential cuts in October and December, targeting a year-end policy rate of 3.75%-4%[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead remained flat this week, while demand gradually weakened. Considering anti - involution speculation, it is recommended to place long orders on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,855 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,975.5 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars [2] - The spread between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead was 5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 105,235 lots, down 7,502 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,127 lots, down 1,591 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 58,656 tons, down 351 tons [2] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 63,283 tons, up 29 tons; the LME lead inventory was 272,975 tons, down 1,250 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,725 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,940 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan [2] - The basis of the lead main contract was - 130 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 41.92 dollars/ton, up 5.94 dollars [2] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 15,953 yuan, down 226 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,770 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8 percentage points [2] - The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [2] - The average operating rate of primary lead was 77.49%, up 3.68 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 34,100 tons, up 600 tons [2] - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 60 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons [2] - The global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industrial Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The monthly export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,107.14 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of lead - acid batteries was 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,975 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2] - The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries was 1,771.53 points, up 38.86 points; the monthly automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles [2] - The monthly new - energy vehicle production was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump will announce tariffs on drugs and chips in the next week, with a maximum drug tariff of 250%. He will significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours. If the EU fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US, a 35% tariff will be imposed. The US trade deficit in June was - 60.2 billion dollars, the smallest since September 2023 [2] - The US non - manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.8 in June to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5. The ISM new order index in July dropped from 51.3 in June to 50.3, and export orders contracted for the fourth time in five months [2] - Trump said Vance is most likely to be the next presidential candidate, and Secretary of State Rubio would be helpful if he works with Vance [2] - Trump may soon announce a new Fed chairman, with four candidates. Bessent hopes to stay in the Treasury [2] - Trump will decide whether to impose sanctions on countries that buy Russian energy after the meeting between the Middle East envoy and Russia on Wednesday [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Affected by the decline in lead prices, the operating rate of primary lead smelters increased, leading to an increase in production. Currently, the operating rate of primary lead remains strong compared to recycled lead, and its by - product revenue is stable. However, as lead prices continue to fluctuate, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions [2] - For recycled lead, due to the tight supply of waste battery raw materials, smelters lack confidence, and the overall supply is tight. From the actual resumption of production rhythm, the resumption progress is slow due to cost inversion [2] - Today, the price of 1 lead rebounded by 150 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric batteries remained stable, with prices in some enterprises in Jiangxi and Shanxi increasing by 50 yuan/ton. The tax - free price of waste electric batteries was reported at 9,900 - 9,950 yuan/ton, and the purchase price at the recycling end was reported at 9,820 - 9,880 yuan/ton, following the increase of manufacturers [2] - The lead - acid battery industry, the main consumer area of lead, is approaching the traditional peak consumption season. However, in the context of rising prices, spot transactions are dull, and downstream enterprises generally adopt a wait - and - see attitude. Although lead - acid batteries have seen price increases, the inventory clearance of dealers is slow, which greatly suppresses the enthusiasm of battery factories to start production. If the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream enterprises continues, the demand for lead in the lead - acid battery industry will hardly improve significantly, and the overall demand side will remain weak [2] - Recently, the inventory has shown a slight upward trend, and the number of warehouse receipts has also increased, indicating a slowdown in overall demand. Although the lead - acid battery industry is approaching the peak season, from the current inventory data, demand has not effectively driven inventory clearance. If the demand side still fails to pick up this week, domestic inventory may continue to accumulate, putting pressure on lead prices [2]

全球最大黄金etf--iSharesSilverTrust持仓报告显示，8月5日黄金etf持有量为955.94吨，较上一交易日增加 1.14吨。周二(8月5日)截止收盘，现货黄金报3380.44美元/盎司，涨幅0.19%，日内最高上探至3390.29美 元/盎司，最低触3349.56美元/盎司。 【市场要闻速递】 美国供应管理协会公布了美国7月ISM非制造业PMI，结果从6月的50.8降至50.1，低于预期的51.5，逼近 荣枯线临界点，创2020年疫情以来第三低读数。价格支付指数飙升至2022年末以来最高的69.9，就业指 数跌至疫情以来第三低的46.4。PMI作为各国经济活力的先行指标，能显著影响各国资产价格的估值中 枢。美国7月ISM非制造业PMI意外萎缩，关税政策成服务业放缓主因。 特朗普关税政策的"双刃剑"效应已从贸易领域蔓延至占美国经济三分之二的服务业。 尽管短期数据呈现"逆差收窄+GDP增长"的表象，但企业成本激增、就业市场恶化、供应链扭曲等深层 矛盾正在侵蚀经济根基。若关税政策持续，美国经济可能陷入"高通胀、低增长"的长期困局。 ...