Group 1: Overall Market Performance - In June, the national passenger car market retail reached 2.084 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% and a month-on-month increase of 7.6% [1] - For the first half of the year, cumulative retail sales of passenger cars reached 10.901 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [1] - The strong growth in passenger car sales is attributed to the enhanced support from the "two new" policy subsidies [1] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Market - In June, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 1.111 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29.7% and a month-on-month increase of 8.2% [2] - Cumulative retail sales for the first half of the year reached 5.468 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33.3% [2] - The market share of pure electric vehicles (EVs) in the NEV segment is increasing, with pure EVs accounting for 61.4% of wholesale sales in the first half of 2025, up 3.2% year-on-year [2][5] Group 3: Segment Performance in EVs - The A00 segment of pure electric vehicles saw wholesale sales of 153,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 61% [5] - A0 segment sales were 171,000 units, maintaining a 22% share of pure EV sales [5] - A-segment sales reached 185,000 units, accounting for 24% of pure EV sales, with a year-on-year increase of 6 percentage points [5] Group 4: Brand Performance - In June, retail sales of domestic brands reached 1.34 million units, a year-on-year increase of 30% and a market share of 64.2% [6][7] - The retail market share of domestic brands for the first half of the year was 64%, an increase of 7.5 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Mainstream joint venture brands sold 510,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 5% [6] Group 5: Export and Future Outlook - In June, domestic brand exports reached 410,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 28% [7] - The implementation of a multi-pronged strategy in the NEV sector by domestic manufacturers is expanding market presence [7] - Looking ahead to July, sales growth is expected to slow due to high inventory levels and the upcoming launch of the old-for-new policy [7]

Group 1: Sales and Production Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's heavy truck market recorded cumulative sales of approximately 1.6 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of about 53.33% [2] - The company is experiencing good production and operational conditions, with overall sales performance maintaining a growth trend compared to the same period last year, outperforming industry levels [2] Group 2: Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" policy launched in March 2025, which includes natural gas heavy trucks in the scrapping and new purchase subsidy scope, is expected to accelerate the elimination of old vehicles and promote the transition to green and efficient operations in the industry [3] - The company aims to leverage policy opportunities to enhance technological innovation and market expansion, driving high-quality business development [3] Group 3: New Energy Heavy Truck Development - In the first half of 2025, cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks in China reached approximately 60,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 194%, with a monthly addition of 6,590 units [3] - The company has demonstrated strong performance in the new energy sector, maintaining good growth rates year-on-year [3] - The new energy heavy truck industry is currently in a rapid development phase, driven by policy support and technological innovation, with an expanding trend towards electrification in short- and medium-distance transportation scenarios [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [5][6][14]. Core Views - The home appliance industry is experiencing robust growth in domestic sales, driven by government subsidies and strong demand for air conditioners and robotic vacuum cleaners, with retail sales growth exceeding 15% in Q2 2025 [2][18]. - Domestic sales of major home appliances showed solid growth in May 2025, while exports faced some pressure, particularly in categories like air conditioners and refrigerators [3][35]. - The U.S. home appliance retail market remains stable despite tariff impacts, with a slight increase in inventory levels [4][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, domestic sales of air conditioners, range hoods, gas stoves, and robotic vacuum cleaners saw significant growth, with online and offline retail sales of air conditioners increasing by 23.0% and 15.3% year-on-year, respectively [2][18]. - The overall retail demand for home appliances is strong, with various categories showing positive growth trends [2][18]. 2. Domestic and Export Sales - In May 2025, domestic sales of home appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased by 13.4%, 13.7%, and 15.2% year-on-year, respectively, while exports faced challenges with declines in several categories [3][35]. - The report anticipates that the export of home appliances will continue to face short-term declines, but the long-term growth potential remains strong due to competitive advantages in technology and supply chains [3][35]. 3. U.S. Market Insights - The U.S. home appliance retail sector showed a year-on-year decline of 1.2% in May 2025, with cumulative declines of 1.9% for the year [4][41]. - Inventory levels in U.S. electronic and appliance stores have slightly increased, but the inventory-to-sales ratio remains low, indicating a stable market environment [4][41]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances in the white goods sector, and Boss Electric in the kitchen appliances sector [5][6][14].

社库累库且现货贴水，预计盘面上方空间有限 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 第一部分 核心观点 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观：美国非农就业人数大超预期，7月降息概率迅速下滑；国内以旧换新政策将继续，反内卷政策抬头；7月9日临近，关注美国对外关税政策。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 供给：5月，在产产能环比增加210万吨，开工率环比小幅上升；矿石端，国内到港量周度环比增加，数值仍处在正常范围内 进口： 2025年5月中国氧化铝净出口14.25万吨，环比大幅减少，连续14个月净出口；出口盈利小幅收敛 需求：电解铝在产产能小幅增加且维持高位，短期氧化铝需求相对持稳 利润：氧化铝生产完全成本为2821.9元，盈利300.3元/吨，成本微幅下滑，利润小幅减少；烧碱价格最新价3540元/吨，周度环比上涨10元/吨 进口矿到港量周度环比反弹，数据暂在正常范围内；进口矿价较为稳定，韧性较强，下跌概率不大，对氧化铝存成本支撑；国内矿端库存仍在 偏高位置；氧化铝周产环比增加，社库延续累库，现货近两 ...

Key Points Summary Industry Overview - The heavy-duty truck (HDT) industry experienced a significant increase in sales, with June sales reaching 65,000 units, showing both year-on-year and month-on-month growth, driven by the vehicle replacement policy [1][2][3] - The market share of diesel trucks rose to 52%, with a month-on-month increase of 5%-6%, primarily benefiting from the demand for replacing National IV standard vehicles, especially in the cargo and special vehicle sectors [1][5] Sales Performance - June sales of natural gas heavy-duty trucks declined by 22% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month, with an expected sales volume of 12,600 units, impacted by the delayed implementation of replacement policies and narrowing oil-gas price differentials [1][6] - Electric heavy-duty trucks performed exceptionally well in June, with expected sales exceeding 16,000 units and a penetration rate of approximately 24%, benefiting from lower operating costs [1][5][12] - Export volume for heavy-duty trucks in June was 26,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of nearly 10%, with Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East compensating for declines in the Russian market [1][7] Future Market Expectations - The heavy-duty truck market is expected to continue rapid growth in the second half of 2025, driven by a low base from the previous year and the full implementation of replacement policies, with average monthly sales projected to reach 75,000 to 90,000 units from July to December [1][9][10] - Total domestic heavy-duty truck sales for 2025 are estimated at 750,000 units, with exports of 300,000 units, marking a total of approximately 1.05 million units, a year-on-year increase of about 150,000 units [1][10] Electric and Natural Gas Truck Trends - The electric heavy-duty truck market is projected to grow significantly, with expected sales of 180,000 units in 2025, doubling year-on-year, while natural gas heavy-duty trucks are expected to see a 10% growth, reaching 200,000 units [1][11][12] - The future of electric and natural gas heavy-duty trucks looks promising, with electric trucks benefiting from low operating costs and environmental advantages, while natural gas trucks are expected to recover sales as diesel prices rise [1][12][13] Competitive Landscape - Traditional heavy-duty truck manufacturers maintain a competitive edge due to their established supply chains, while new entrants in the electric truck market face challenges related to product differentiation and market share [1][20] - Great Wall Motors has introduced a hybrid heavy-duty truck targeting urban short-haul logistics, utilizing a unique DHT system to reduce fuel consumption by 15%-20%, although its market share may be limited due to weak distribution and service networks [1][23][24] Policy Impact - The vehicle replacement policy has been a significant driver of sales in the heavy-duty truck market, with its full implementation across provinces leading to increased sales in June [2][16] - Future policies are expected to continue supporting the market, particularly the vehicle replacement initiative, which is anticipated to stabilize and promote growth in the heavy-duty truck sector [1][16]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 特斯拉Robotaxi上线，美国电动车税收抵免提前终止或导致特斯拉需求承压： 当地时间6/22特斯拉在美国奥斯汀正式推出Robotaxi服务、6/28 Model Y首次实现全自动驾驶交付；7/3美国众 议院通过"大而美法案"，规定从2025/9/30起全面取消购买新电动汽车的7,500美元税收抵免（vs. 原计划2032年 底取消）。我们判断，1）国内外Robotaxi商业化规模上量或迎拐点突破；2）美国电动车税收抵免提前终止或 导致特斯拉在美需求承压；3）国内新势力购车优惠放大或加剧消费者观望情绪，关注2H25E以旧换新政策进 展。 2Q25特斯拉全球交付量环比修复： 2Q25特斯拉全球交付量同比-13.5%/环比+14.1%至38.4万辆（Model 3+Y同比-11.5%/环比+15.4%至37.4万 辆）。 6月理想交付同环比下滑，小鹏/蔚来环比企稳： 1）理想交付量同比-24.1%/环比-11.2%至36,279辆；2）小鹏交付量同比+224.4%/环比+3.2%至34,611辆；3）蔚 来交付量同比+17.5%/环比+7.3%至24,925辆（乐道L60 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home appliance industry, indicating a strong growth potential driven by domestic demand and favorable policies [7][47]. Core Insights - The 618 home appliance market in 2025 showed robust growth, with major categories experiencing increases in both retail volume and value, particularly in white goods and black goods [2][13]. - The recent US-Vietnam trade agreement is expected to boost sentiment in the Chinese home appliance export chain, providing greater policy certainty for regional export chains [3][21]. - The home appliance sector is transitioning from price-driven competition to a focus on user experience and product value, with significant upgrades in product structures [20][45]. Market Performance Tracking - The overall market is showing a recovery trend, with white goods maintaining stable prices and black goods experiencing significant growth, particularly in the TV market, which saw a 9.7% increase in volume and a 14.5% increase in value during the 618 period [2][13]. - The air conditioning segment demonstrated strong growth, with retail sales increasing over 15% both online and offline, driven by leading brands like Midea, Xiaomi, and Haier [15][20]. - The washing machine market also saw substantial growth, with online and offline retail sales increasing by 17.1% and 12.1% respectively, indicating a shift towards larger capacity and upgraded features [15][20]. Raw Material Price Tracking - Recent trends show a decrease in copper and aluminum prices, with copper down 0.69% and aluminum down 0.23% in the last week, while cold-rolled steel prices increased by 2.58% [29][34]. Exchange Rate and Shipping Price Tracking - As of July 4, 2025, the USD to RMB exchange rate was reported at 7.15, with a slight decrease of 0.01% week-on-week [35][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1) Opportunities in new product forms and industry phases 2) Quality companies with solid fundamentals focusing on robotics 3) Leading companies in the black and white goods sectors [7][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Policy support is in place, but domestic demand remains weak. The GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025 is expected to be achieved with relative ease [9][10]. - Fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input, while monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Additional fiscal policies may be launched under special circumstances [2]. - There are three major external disturbances in the second half of the year: tariff negotiations, the OBBB Act, and the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts [2]. - The outlook for major asset classes varies. Stocks are expected to have a bottom - line support with small - cap stocks outperforming; bond yields are expected to reach new lows; the RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate following the US dollar index; and commodities' performance will depend on event and policy rhythms [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Domestic Economy: Policy Support, Weak Domestic Demand - **Economic Overall Trend**: The economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. To counter the impact of exports, policies are targeted at consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing. In the first half, with pre - emptive policy implementation, consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing showed good growth, and the GDP growth rate in Q1 was 5.4%, with Q2 expected to be above 5%. In the second half, exports are likely to decline, and the probability of additional policies is low [9][10]. - **Consumption**: The increase in social retail sales is mainly supported by policies. After excluding the impact of the "trade - in" policy, the overall consumption has not improved significantly compared to 2024. Income expectations remain poor, and employment expectations are lower than income expectations. The consumption in Q3 is expected to maintain relatively high - speed growth, while there will be significant downward pressure in Q4 [11][16][17]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market has basically reached the bottom, and the probability of a further sharp decline in the second half is low. However, the driving force for recovery is insufficient, and it is expected to continue to operate at the bottom, with a slight upward trend under optimistic expectations [19][21]. - **Infrastructure**: Infrastructure is expected to remain at a high level. The main sources of funds are two - fold policy funds and local government special bonds. In Q3, infrastructure will still have strong support, and it may decline in Q4 but remain at a high level overall. The new policy - based financial instruments may be introduced in September or October [34][35]. - **Exports**: Exports were high in the first half but are likely to decline in the second half due to factors such as over - drawn demand and the downward risk of the US economy [37][38]. - **Manufacturing**: Manufacturing is highly dependent on policy support. With the implementation of the equipment renewal policy, most of the funds have been allocated, and manufacturing is expected to remain at a high level at least in Q3 [40]. 3.2 Policy: Limited Fiscal Policy, Increased Monetary Policy - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input. The probability of introducing incremental fiscal policies is low unless there is a significant external shock. Key meetings in the second half of the year need to be monitored [42][43]. - **Monetary Policy**: Monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Based on historical experience and the current high real - interest - rate level, it is reasonable to expect an interest rate cut of 20bp this year [44][46]. 3.3 Three Major External Disturbances in the Second Half of the Year - **Tariff Negotiation Disturbance**: The outcomes of the US tariff negotiations on July 9 and the China - US tariff negotiations on August 12 will basically determine the export trend in the second half of the year [48]. - **OBBB Act Disturbance**: The OBBB Act will have an impact on the US economy and indirectly affect the domestic economy. The Senate version of the bill will increase the US debt, and if temporary measures are made permanent, the debt increase will be even greater. The bill may lead to a steeper yield curve and higher 10 - year US Treasury yields [49][51]. - **Fed Policy Rate Changes**: The first interest rate cut is expected to occur in September or later. The number of expected interest rate cuts within the year may be slightly overestimated considering the US economic resilience and Powell's style [54]. 3.4 Outlook for Major Asset Classes in the Second Half of the Year - **Stocks**: Stocks have a bottom - line support. Although they will face fundamental pressure, the Fed's interest rate cuts and domestic monetary policy will provide support. Small - cap stocks are expected to outperform [55]. - **Bonds**: Bond yields are expected to reach new lows. The bond market will be supported by the economic trend, and with lower supply pressure and a high probability of interest rate cuts, bond yields are expected to decline [58]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index is expected to decline, and the RMB will appreciate following the US dollar index, which will help ease the pressure on export enterprises [60]. - **Commodities**: The performance of commodities will depend on event and policy rhythms. External tariff negotiations and domestic policy implementation schedules will affect commodity prices. Gold is expected to strengthen with support from the US debt issue and the approaching Fed interest rate cuts [63][64].

Core Insights - The automotive market in China has shown significant changes in the first half of 2025, with various brands reporting their sales performance, indicating a competitive landscape shift [1][2]. Sales Performance - Five brands have doubled their sales, while five companies met their sales targets. Overall, the sales performance of 28 major automotive brands was positive, with only five companies reporting a year-on-year decline [2][5]. - Notable performers include BYD with 382,600 units sold in June, a 212% increase year-on-year, and a total of 2,146,000 units in the first half, reflecting a 33.04% growth [3][7]. - Geely's sales reached 236,000 units in June, a 42% increase year-on-year, with a total of over 1,409,200 units in the first half, marking a 47% growth [5]. Brand Highlights - New energy vehicle brands like Hongmeng Zhixing and Xiaopeng Motors have shown strong growth, with Hongmeng Zhixing reclaiming the monthly sales crown among new forces with 52,700 units delivered in June [6][7]. - Li Auto and NIO have faced challenges, with Li Auto achieving only about 30% of its annual sales target, while NIO's performance has been average despite maintaining a growth trend [8][9]. Market Trends - The market for economic models is leading, while high-end vehicle growth is slowing down. The sales of high-end new energy vehicles have not kept pace with the overall market growth due to fewer significant new releases [10][11]. - Analysts predict that the overall automotive market will see a growth of 4.7% in 2025, with new energy vehicle sales expected to reach 16.7 million units, a 30% increase year-on-year [11]. Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to benefit from policies promoting vehicle trade-ins and the anticipated end of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption, leading to higher sales expectations [11]. - Analysts remain optimistic about the high-end new energy vehicle market, citing unmet demand and a lack of quality supply in certain price segments [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [1][6][8] Core Views - The fluorochemical industry is expected to benefit from the implementation of long-term contracts for third-generation refrigerants, with a focus on supply-side constraints for certain products [1][6] - The demand for refrigerants is anticipated to grow due to national subsidy policies and increasing demand from emerging regions such as Southeast Asia, leading to significant growth in domestic air conditioning production and shipments [6][7] - The report highlights a potential supply-demand gap for second-generation refrigerants like R22 due to rapid supply contraction and support from the air conditioning repair market [6][7] Monthly Industry Performance - As of the end of June, the fluorochemical index rose by 6.23%, outperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 3.08 percentage points [2][15] - The Guosen Chemical Fluorochemical Price Index and Refrigerant Price Index reported increases of 0.17% and 1.90% respectively [2][17] Refrigerant Market Review - The prices of refrigerants are expected to continue rising in the third quarter, with R32 and R410A long-term contract prices set at 50,000 CNY/ton and 49,000 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting increases from the previous quarter [3][23] - The report forecasts stable price growth for mainstream products in the third quarter, with expected average prices for R32 at 53,000 CNY/ton and R134a at 49,000 CNY/ton [3][23] Domestic and Export Price Trends - Domestic prices for R22, R134a, R32, and R410A have shown upward trends, with R32 reaching 53,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 4,000 CNY/ton from the previous month [4][25] - Export prices for R32 and R134a are converging with domestic prices, indicating a tightening market [4][38] Production and Shipment Data - The overall production of air conditioners in the second quarter of 2025 showed a year-on-year increase, although July saw a slight decline due to demand being pulled forward [5][78] - The report indicates that air conditioning production is expected to maintain growth, supported by seasonal demand and policy incentives [5][78] Regulatory Environment - The report discusses China's compliance with the Montreal Protocol, with significant reductions in HCFCs and HFCs production and usage planned for 2025-2030 [68][69] - The tightening of refrigerant quotas is expected to create a long-term upward trend in prices for second and third-generation refrigerants [7][69] Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are rated as "Outperform" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 and 2026 [8]