Report Information - Report Title: Futures Research Report - Weekly Report (January 5, 2026) [1][2] - Report Subject: PTA Futures - Analyst: Shi Xiuming - Investment Consultation Qualification Number: F0255552 - Email: shixiuming@nzfco.com Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - This week, the PTA futures market showed a strong upward trend, with the TA2605 contract closing at 5,110 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The recent sharp rise in PX prices and the significant expansion of PXN have basically reflected the post - holiday expectations. In terms of supply, PX factories are more willing to increase production due to good profits, and PTA factories are selling spot PX at high prices, resulting in a more relaxed PX supply than expected. As the PTA processing fee recovers, the uncertainty of PTA plant maintenance in the first quarter increases. The downstream polyester industry experiences seasonal production cuts around the Spring Festival, strengthening the expectation of PTA inventory accumulation in the first quarter. Recently, some large polyester manufacturers plan to gradually reduce production, so PTA has limited self - driving force and mainly follows the raw material price fluctuations. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve. It is advisable for short - term bulls to realize profits [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - PTA futures: TA2605 closed at 5,110 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton or 3.22%. PX price increases and PXN expansion have reflected post - holiday expectations. PX supply is more relaxed than expected, and PTA has a strong inventory accumulation expectation in Q1. Some polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, and PTA follows raw material price fluctuations. In the long - term, PTA processing fee is expected to improve, and short - term bulls should realize profits [3]. Attention Factors - Polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil price trends [4] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA Futures (Continuous) | yuan/ton | 5,110.00 | 5,220.00 | - 110.00 | - 2.11% | Daily | | PTA Output | 10,000 tons | 143.11 | 141.84 | 1.27 | 0.90% | Weekly | | Polyester Chip Operating Rate | % | 86.83 | 84.36 | 2.47 | 2.93% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Operating Rate | % | 59.55 | 60.70 | - 1.15 | - 1.89% | Weekly | | PXN | yuan/ton | 363 | 360 | 3.00 | 0.83% | Daily | | PTA Cash - flow Cost | yuan/ton | 4,977 | 5,038 | - 61.00 | - 1.21% | Daily | [5] PX - Related Analysis - **PX Spot and Futures Market Review**: Includes charts of PX futures closing prices, PX ex - factory prices in East China, PX prices in Taiwan, and related price spreads [7][9][13] - **PX Supply Analysis**: Covers PX production in Asia and China, monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, PX operating rates in China and Asia, and PX inventory [14][16][18] PTA - Related Analysis - **PTA Spot and Futures Market Review**: Presents a chart of PTA futures closing prices (continuous) and the mainstream price in East China [21] - **PTA Supply Analysis**: Involves PTA monthly output, operating rate, and social inventory [23][28] - **PTA Consumption Analysis**: Includes PTA export volume, monthly output of polyester filaments and staple fibers, operating rates of polyester chips, filaments, and staple fibers, and the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [29][31][34] - **Cost - Profit Analysis**: Shows a chart of PTA spot price in East China, PTA cash - flow cost, and PTA profit [37][39]

高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 期货研究报告 2026年01月05日 棕榈油期货：区间震荡整理阶段 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：12.29-1.1受元旦备货与期货走强推动，全国24度棕榈油均价从8480元/吨升至 8570元/吨，1.2后备货结束，价格稳定在 8550-8570元/吨，周涨约90 元/吨（+1.06%）。区域格局：广东 8570 元/吨、江苏8580元/吨、天津8530元/吨，港口报价随期货波动，成交以刚需为主，贸易商库存偏高， 出货意愿较强。 主产国数据：南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年12月1-31日马来西亚棕榈油单 产环比上月同期减少7.39%，出油率环比上月同期减少0.13%，产量环比上月同期减少8.07%。船运调查机构 ITS数据显示，马来西亚12月1-31日棕榈油出口量为1240587吨，较上月同期出口的1316455吨减少5.76%。 展望：库存高企与需求平稳博弈，短期缺乏趋势性行情。本周关注马棕库存数据与国内港口库存变化， 操作以区间交易为主，防范风险。 关注因素：1.马来西亚棕榈油产量及出 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term view of "oscillation", a medium - term view of "oscillation", and an intraday view of "stronger". It is predicted to maintain an oscillating and stronger trend after the holiday [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Methanol Market Conditions - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "stronger", and the reference view is "stronger operation" [1] Driving Logic of Methanol Price - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply before the holiday provides the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices. Iran, the main source of imports, is facing serious supply disruptions. The reduction of methanol inventory in domestic ports has led to the repair of port spot prices, strengthening the basis. The firmness of the spot market has enhanced the confidence of long - positions. The short - term upward trend of domestic methanol futures before the holiday is the result of "strong expectations (decreased imports)" outweighing "weak reality (weak demand)" [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Bearish rebound [1] - **L**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PP**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PVC**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PX/PTA**: Buy on pullback [3] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Close short positions [3] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously chase up [3] - **Natural Gas**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Asphalt**: Bearish rebound [6] - **Glass**: Bearish rebound [6] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish rebound [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical changes in South America lead to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but they remain under pressure in the medium and long term. The supply is in surplus during the off - season, and attention should be paid to changes in US shale oil production and geopolitical developments in Russia, Ukraine, and South America [1][10]. - **LPG**: Cost - side support boosts LPG prices in the short term. In the medium and long term, it is anchored to the cost - side crude oil, with a downward trend overall [1]. - **L**: After the holiday, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has significantly increased. The supply is still sufficient, and there is pressure to reduce inventory in the future [1][21]. - **PP**: The total commercial inventory is being reduced from a high level. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices. Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent [1][25]. - **PVC**: The thermal coal price has stopped falling and stabilized, and the industry chain has restocked. Most domestic devices are losing cash flow, and some marginal devices have started to reduce their loads [1][29]. - **PX/PTA**: The valuation is not low. The supply - side maintenance efforts are large, and the downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand is tight, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side [3][31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. It follows the cost fluctuations in the short term, and there is an expectation of maintenance in Q1 2026 [3][34]. - **Methanol**: The valuation is not low. The supply - side pressure still exists, the demand side is slightly weakening, and the cost support is slightly stable. The supply - demand is slightly loose, but the downside space may be limited [3][38]. - **Urea**: The absolute valuation is not low. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in mid - January. The demand side is weakening recently, and the social inventory is being reduced but remains at a relatively high level [3][43]. - **Natural Gas**: The US natural gas inventory has decreased, and the gas price has rebounded, but it remains under pressure in the medium and long term. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand - side support has declined [6][48]. - **Asphalt**: The valuation is gradually returning to normal. The cost - side oil price is weak, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in South America. The supply - demand is generally loose [6][51]. - **Glass**: The in - factory inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing, and there is short - term cold - repair expectation support. The supply - demand is weak, and the real estate market is in an adjustment period [6][56]. - **Soda Ash**: The warehouse receipts have increased, and the in - factory inventory has decreased for two consecutive times. It rebounds at a low level following the glass. The long - term supply pattern is loose, and the demand support is insufficient [6][60]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined. WTI decreased by 0.22%, Brent decreased by 0.26%, and SC increased by 0.69% [9]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical changes in South America may cause short - term strength in oil prices, but the supply surplus situation remains unchanged. The supply is in surplus during the off - season, and the global crude oil inventory is accumulating rapidly [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On January 3, the US took military action against Venezuela, which may cause a short - term rebound in oil prices. Japan's crude oil imports in November increased by 7.0% year - on - year. As of December 19, the US crude oil and refined product inventories all increased [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium and long term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing down prices. Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of [425 - 435] for SC [12]. LPG - **Market Review**: On December 30, the PG main contract closed at 4092 yuan/ton, up 0.52% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4320, 4380, and 4510 yuan/ton respectively [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Saudi Arabia raised the latest CP contract price, which boosts the gas price in the short term. In the medium and long term, it is anchored to the oil price and is under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the downstream chemical demand is resilient [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium and long term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG price still has room for compression. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4100 - 4200] for PG [17]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract price increased by 0.2%, and the L01 contract price decreased by 1.7%. The L05 basis was - 202 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 37 yuan/ton [19][20]. - **Basic Logic**: After the holiday, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has significantly increased. The supply - demand is weak, and there is pressure to reduce inventory in the future [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term. In the medium and long term, it is in a high - production cycle. Wait for a rebound to go short. Hold the short position of the LP05 spread. Pay attention to the range of [6400 - 6550] for L [21]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract price increased by 0.4%. The PP05 basis was - 136 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 20 yuan/ton [23][24]. - **Basic Logic**: The total commercial inventory is being reduced from a high level. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices. Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see. Short the MTO05 spread. Pay attention to the range of [6300 - 6450] for PP [25]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract price decreased by 0.1%. The V05 basis was - 305 yuan/ton, the V59 spread was - 134 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts were 108,557 lots [27][28]. - **Basic Logic**: The thermal coal price has stopped falling and stabilized, and the industry chain has restocked. Most domestic devices are losing cash flow, and some marginal devices have started to reduce their loads [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take partial profits on long positions. In the medium and long term, wait for the inventory to be continuously reduced and go long on pullbacks. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [4700 - 4900] for V [29]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract price was 5110 yuan/ton. The TA05 basis was - 13 yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was 100 yuan/ton [30][31]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply - side maintenance efforts are large, and the downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand is tight, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on pullbacks for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of [5120 - 5250] for TA05 [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract price was 3609 yuan/ton. The EG05 basis was - 125 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 93 yuan/ton [33][34]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. The domestic device load has increased, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The demand is relatively good but expected to weaken [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3780 - 3880] for EG05 [35]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The main contract of methanol decreased in position and increased in price. The East China basis and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [38]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply - side pressure still exists, the demand side is slightly weakening, and the cost support is slightly stable. The supply - demand is slightly loose, but the downside space may be limited [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The arrival volume in December is high, and the supply - side pressure is still large. The demand side is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on pullbacks for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of [2205 - 2265] for MA05 [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The main contract of urea closed at 1749 yuan/ton. The Shandong small - particle basis was - 39 yuan/ton, and the ur1 - 5 spread was - 88 yuan/ton [44]. - **Basic Logic**: The Shandong small - particle urea spot price has stabilized. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in mid - January. The demand side is weakening recently, and the social inventory is being reduced but remains at a relatively high level [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter storage benefit is relatively limited, and the export window is still open. There is an expectation of spring fertilizer use trading. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on pullbacks for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of [1720 - 1750] for UR05 [45]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On December 31, the NG main contract closed at 3.686 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 7.20% month - on - month [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand side has entered the consumption peak season, but the recent weather in the US is relatively mild, and the demand - side support for the gas price has declined. The supply side is relatively abundant, and the gas price is under pressure [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the Northern Hemisphere winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, but the gas price has reached a high level in recent years, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The gas price is under downward pressure. Pay attention to the range of [3.250 - 3.680] for NG [48]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On December 31, the BU main contract closed at 3022 yuan/ton, down 0.53% month - on - month. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 2950, 3090, and 2940 yuan/ton respectively [50]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost - side crude oil. The oil price rebounds in the short term due to geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East and South America and is under pressure in the medium and long term. The supply in January 2026 is expected to decrease, and the demand has increased slightly [51]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has entered the off - season. Short positions should pay attention to risk prevention. Pay attention to the range of [3000 - 3200] for BU [52]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract price remained unchanged. The FG05 basis was - 87 yuan/ton, the FG59 spread was - 104 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts were 1676 lots [54][55]. - **Basic Logic**: The in - factory inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing, and there is short - term cold - repair expectation support. The supply - demand is weak, and the real estate market is in an adjustment period [56]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term supply reduction supports the price. Go long near the moving average. In the medium and long term, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of [1070 - 1120] for FG [56]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract price increased by 2.7%. The SA05 basis was - 58 yuan/ton, the SA59 spread was - 64 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts were 4444 lots [58][59]. - **Basic Logic**: The warehouse receipts have increased, and the in - factory inventory has decreased for two consecutive times. It rebounds at a low level following the glass. The long - term supply pattern is loose, and the demand support is insufficient [60]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price fluctuates strongly in the short term. In the medium and long term, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of [1200 - 1240] for SA [60].

2026 年 1 月 5 日 豆粕：假期美豆收跌，连粕或低位震荡 豆一：节前政策情绪偏强，节后或震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 资料来源：文华财经，卓创，汇易，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1 月 2 日 CBOT 大豆日评：2026 年芝加哥大豆期货开局下跌。北京德润林 2026 年 1 月 3 日消息：周 五是 2026 年首个交易日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货收盘下跌，因为巴西大豆价格更具竞争 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | +37（+0.88%） 4241 | na na | | | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2749 -19 （-0.69%） | na na | | | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 104 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CP prices of propane and butane in January strengthened beyond expectations, but domestic demand remained stagnant. The combustion demand was basically maintained but weakened year - on - year. Although the chemical demand maintained high - level operation, the profits were deeply in the red, and it was hard to say that the demand was improving. In the short term, the PG price is expected to maintain a range - bound operation, with a downward trend in the price center [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures first declined and then rose, with a fluctuation range of 4,000 - 4,140 yuan/ton. International crude oil prices increased, and international LPG first declined and then rose. The domestic LPG market had both rising and falling prices, with the trading center slightly declining. Affected by both domestic and foreign long and short factors, the PG futures trended in a volatile manner. The domestic import arrivals dropped significantly, and the terminal inventory was at a low level. However, the combustion demand was flat, and the fundamentals were both long and short. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 289 yuan/ton, in South China was 429 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 234 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was designated in Shandong [6]. 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 524,400 tons (a 1.18% increase), including 219,000 tons of civil gas (a 0.41% increase), 187,900 tons of industrial gas (a 0% change), and 79,000 tons of ether - after C4. The LPG arrivals last week were 31,000 tons (- 53.77%). In East China, some refineries increased their external releases, and in the Northwest, some enterprises reduced their internal supplies. Additionally, the operation of some refinery units was unstable. The weekly commercial volume increased [4]. 3.3 Demand - In winter, the heating demand was maintained, and the combustion demand for LPG gradually improved, reaching a relatively high level. The absolute value of the PN spread narrowed, and the economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material weakened. Constrained by the weak downstream olefin demand, the substitution effect was limited. At the same time, the supply in the Chinese propylene market was in serious surplus, the PDH units were operating at a high load, and the unit profit losses intensified, suppressing the propane procurement. Driven by the structural shortage of gasoline in the Atlantic Basin, European and American blenders had a strong demand for MTBE. The domestic isobutane dehydrogenation units were operating at a high start - up rate. Although the profits were increasingly in the red as the raw material prices rose, the rigid demand was relatively resilient [4]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant LPG inventory was 157,600 tons (- 10.47%), and the port inventory was 233,730 tons (a 1.35% increase). In some domestic regions, affected by snow and rain and sufficient supplies, the shipments of refineries declined to varying degrees, ultimately leading to a slight increase in the storage capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. At the ports, the arrivals of ships decreased significantly this period, and the import resources were insufficient. The terminals mostly consumed their own inventories. In terms of demand, the chemical demand changed little, the port trading volume remained stable, and the demand change was limited. Affected by the decline in supply, the port inventory showed an obvious downward trend [4]. 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was 289.80 yuan/ton in East China, 475.80 yuan/ton in South China, and 191.80 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 6,398 lots, with the lowest deliverable location in Shandong, and the number of lots increased by 30 [4]. 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The start - up rate of PDH was 76.36%, MTBE was 58.12%, and alkylation was 36.38%. The profit of PDH to propylene was - 226 yuan/ton, the alkylation in Shandong was - 769 yuan/ton, and the MTBE isomerization was - 385 yuan/ton [4]. 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.30 (a 4.15% increase), and the PG spread between the main and secondary months was 119 yuan/ton (an 11.21% increase). In the fourth quarter, the gas price was firm, and the crude oil returned to a bearish trend. The oil - gas cracking spread showed a weakening trend [4]. 3.8 Other Factors - In December, the PMI rebounded comprehensively and beyond the seasonality. The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 month - on - month to 50.1, the non - manufacturing PMI increased by 0.7 month - on - month to 50.2, and the comprehensive PMI increased by 1.0 month - on - month to 50.7, reversing the slowdown trend in the previous two months. The central bank's fourth - quarter regular meeting stated that it would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase the intensity of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. The EU extended its economic sanctions against Russia for another six months. The US economic growth exceeded expectations, and gold, silver, and copper reached new highs. The US launched an air strike on Venezuela, and President Maduro and his wife were arrested [4]. 3.9 Investment Views - The short - term PG price is expected to maintain a range - bound operation, with a downward trend in the price center [4]. 3.10 Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see for now. For arbitrage, pay attention to the PG3 - 4 reverse spread, going long on SC and short on PG, and going long on PP and short on PG [4]. 3.11 Refinery Unit Maintenance Plan - The report lists the maintenance plans of major refineries and local refineries in China, including information such as refinery names, locations, processing capacities, maintenance units, maintenance capacities, start times, and end times [13]. 3.12 LPG Factory and PDH Unit Maintenance Data - It includes the maintenance data of LPG factories and PDH units, such as production enterprises, locations, maintenance units, normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, end times, and maintenance durations [14][15]. 3.13 Price and Spread Charts - There are multiple price and spread charts in the report, including CP propane and butane prices, FEI and MB propane and butane prices, price ratios with WTI and Brent, various spreads, and price trends of LPG in different regions, as well as the relationship between LPG and other related products [16][22][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for LLDPE and PP, the investment views are both “oscillatory,” suggesting a short - term market with no clear upward or downward trend [2][3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For LLDPE, it is in a state of a low - level recovery, but the rebound is limited. The short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to oscillate. Factors such as supply, demand, inventory, cost, and macro - environment all have different impacts on the market [2]. - For PP, the driving force is insufficient, and the rebound is limited. The short - term market is also expected to oscillate, affected by multiple factors including supply, demand, inventory, and cost [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's total polyethylene production was 672,200 tons, a 1.09% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 84.11%, a 0.06 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. Although there were new device overhauls, some existing devices restarted, leading to a slight increase in capacity utilization [2]. - **Demand**: The average operating rate of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE downstream products decreased by 1.0% compared to the previous period. In November, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0622 million tons, a 9.93% year - on - year decrease but a 5.04% month - on - month increase, mainly due to delayed shipments in October and increased arrivals from Iran in November [2]. - **Inventory**: The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 346,700 tons, a 20.48% decrease from the previous period. The social sample warehouse inventory was 475,100 tons, a 0.77% increase from the previous period and 19.11% higher year - on - year [2]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 124, with the futures price at a discount [2]. - **Profit**: The costs of oil - based and methanol - based production increased by 101 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton respectively, while the costs of coal - based and ethane - based production decreased by 141 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton respectively. The ethylene - based cost remained the same as last week. The import arbitrage profit showed mixed trends [2]. - **Valuation**: The spot absolute price is low, and the main contract is at a discount [2]. - **Macro**: The US war against Venezuela poses a risk of rising international oil prices, and the macro - sentiment is positive with the appreciation of the RMB [2]. PP Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's domestic polypropylene production was 793,700 tons, a 3.18% decrease from last week but a 10.56% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 76.87%, a 2.53% decrease from the previous period [3]. - **Demand**: The average operating rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points to 52.76%. Before the New Year's Day, the consumption boost of PP products was weak. Most industries are reducing production according to demand, and the industry's overall operating rate is expected to continue to decline [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 490,700 tons, a 7.99% decrease from the previous period. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene traders decreased by 1.00 million tons, a 5.32% decrease from the previous period. The port sample inventory decreased by 0.24 million tons, a 3.49% decrease from the previous period [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 88, with the futures price at a premium [3]. - **Profit**: The profits of PP production from externally purchased propylene and PDH improved, while the profits of oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based PP production declined. The weekly average export profit of Chinese polypropylene was - 4.14 US dollars/ton, a 352.44% decrease from last week [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot absolute price is low, and the main contract is at a premium [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The US war against Venezuela poses a risk of rising international oil prices, and the macro - sentiment is positive with the appreciation of the RMB [3].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-05 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. The positive factors have not subsided, but the supply remains high while the demand improvement is limited [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively, with an overall view of high - level oscillation. The core logic is that the positive factors remain, leading to the high - level operation of the ore price [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holidays, international iron ore prices were weak. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continued to accumulate. Steel mills resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore increased from a low level. However, the improvement of steel mills' profitability was limited, and downstream demand was difficult to bear a significant production increase, restricting demand improvement. The relatively positive factor was steel mills' restocking. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals continued to decline, while miners' shipments reached a new weekly high for the year, with overseas ore supply being active at the end of the year. Even though domestic ore supply shrank seasonally, the overall ore supply remained high. The positive factors supported the high - level operation of the ore price, but the supply was high and demand improvement was limited, resulting in weak fundamentals and a lack of upward driving force. The ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be noted [3]

2026 年 1 月 4 日 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 本轮资金面对镍与不锈钢的关注度提高，本质在于消息面的变化，主要包括：印尼镍矿配额的 2.5 亿 吨目标，以及考虑将伴生矿物，如钴，纳入计价和征税体系，以及违规开采镍矿罚款，具体来看： 1）配额事件：印尼政府敦促企业重新提交了 2026 年 RKAB 预算，市场公开消息称印尼希望可以削减 至 2.5 亿吨镍矿配额。即便在镍铁转冰镍路径逐步出清的情况下，2024-2026 年印尼镍矿需求为 2.5、 2.8 和 3.0 亿吨，如果 2.5 亿吨的配额落地，矿端紧缺可能倒逼冶炼端减产，从而将过剩预期扭转为紧缺， 并对存量的高库存形成冲击。不过，从印尼"下游政策"的角度来看，矿端立刻的"一刀切"，易于激化 与下游外资冶炼企业的矛盾，而且从往年来看，印尼的政策动态调整空间较大，2026Q1 将是跟踪政策落 地的重要窗口。不过，如果放眼到长周期，印尼长线防止过剩和偏挺价的心态是明确的，前期低价矿时代 主要为吸引冶炼投 ...