投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据已 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 慎 险 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/8/4 | 指标 | | 8月1日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 30 | 10 | 2500 r 2000 | ===== 19/20 | | ----- 20/21 ----- 21/22 ------22/23 | | | - 23/24 - 24/25 | | | 天津 | -50 | -10 | 1500 1000 | | | | | | | | | 日照 | -90 | 10 | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | -110 | | -500 | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | | | | 09/21 10/22 11/22 12/23 01/23 02/23 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log industry is "Oscillating" [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The log market is expected to oscillate between 800 - 840 yuan/m³ due to rising foreign quotes and improving domestic demand [4] - Last week, the log futures oscillated between 820 - 840 yuan/m³. The ebbing commodity sentiment and delivery cost based on import prices formed the upper pressure, while the rising August foreign quotes and declining domestic port inventories provided some positive support [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In June 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97% [4] - **Demand**: From July 21st to July 27th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 64,100 cubic meters, a 2.72% increase from the previous week. Shandong ports had an average daily outbound volume of 33,900 cubic meters, a 0.89% increase, and Jiangsu ports had 24,600 cubic meters, a 6.03% increase [4] - **Inventory**: As of July 25th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a 120,000 - cubic - meter decrease from the previous week and a 3.65% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a 70,000 - cubic - meter decrease and a 2.65% week - on - week decrease [4] - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in foreign quotes, the profit inversion of traders intensified. As of August 1st, 2025, the trader's profit was - 57 yuan/m³, a slight week - on - week decline [4] - **Valuation**: The spot price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 770 - 780 yuan/m³, equivalent to 780 - 790 yuan/m³ on the futures market, with the futures price at a premium [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading strategy is not provided. The arbitrage strategy is to register spot goods for warehouse receipt delivery. Attention should be paid to domestic demand [4] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Last week, log futures oscillated between 820 - 840 yuan/m³. The ebbing commodity sentiment and delivery cost based on import prices formed the upper pressure, while the rising August foreign quotes and declining domestic port inventories provided some positive support [7] - **Futures Position**: As of August 1st, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 27,218 lots, a 13.5% decrease from the previous week. The position of the main contract 2509 was 19,584 lots, a 19.6% decrease [12] - **Spot Market**: As of August 1st, 2025, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu showed slight increases. In Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 720/740/860 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 730/770/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 720/770/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 730/780/860 yuan/m³ [16] Part Three: Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97%. In June 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 1.6735 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16% and a year - on - year increase of 37.37%. From January to June 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 9.2485 million cubic meters, a 0.91% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, radiata pine imports were about 1.6068 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year increase of 34.07%. From January to June 2025, radiata pine imports were about 9.0189 million cubic meters, a 0.55% year - on - year decrease [20] - **Shipping Volume**: As of July 27th, there were 40 ships departing from New Zealand in July, with 35 going to the Chinese mainland and 5 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea for partial unloading. Among them, 16 ships were expected to arrive in July and 24 in August, with an expected arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July [23] - **Trade Profit**: As of July 2025, the CFR quote for radiata pine was 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 795 - 805 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 57 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand ports was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [30] - **Inventory**: As of July 25th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a 3.65% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a 2.65% week - on - week decrease. The North American log inventory was 190,000 cubic meters, a 17.39% week - on - week decrease. The spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, a 10,000 - cubic - meter decrease from the previous week. In terms of provincial inventories, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.93 million cubic meters, a 0.10% week - on - week decrease, and in Jiangsu ports was 1.0164 million cubic meters, an 8.23% week - on - week decrease [32] - **Outbound Volume**: From July 21st to July 27th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 64,100 cubic meters, a 2.72% increase from the previous week. Shandong ports had an average daily outbound volume of 33,900 cubic meters, a 0.89% increase, and Jiangsu ports had 24,600 cubic meters, a 6.03% increase [36] - **Downstream Market**: As of August 1st, 2025, the wood square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat week - on - week, at 1270 yuan/m³ and 1260 yuan/m³ respectively. The processing profit in Shandong was 31 yuan/m³, and in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan/m³, both remaining flat week - on - week [40]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-04燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构持稳运行，但含硫0.5%船用燃料油现货升水连续第五日下跌至三个 多月新低；交易商预计未来几周夏季公用事业需求减弱将加剧高硫燃油基本面压力；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油411.41美元/吨，基差为137元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为517.5美元/吨，基差 为172元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月30日当周库存为2027.9万桶，增加37万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线附近，20日线偏平；中性 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空翻多，偏多；低硫主力持仓 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, last week some PTA plants reduced production or stopped operations, and the supply - demand pattern was acceptable. However, major suppliers actively sold goods, leading to a weak operation of the PTA spot basis. With a cooling macro - atmosphere, commodity price corrections, insufficient cost - end support, and weak off - season demand from downstream terminals, it is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term. Also, the PTA processing margin was once compressed below 200, and attention should be paid to whether there will be new changes in PTA plants under continuously low processing fees [5]. - For MEG, on Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly and market negotiations were stalemated. The in - port delay of ships was obvious this week due to weather factors, and it is expected that the visible inventory will still decline on Monday. Recently, the ethylene glycol operating rate has rebounded to around 69%. After the restart and production of Phase II 1 of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Xinjiang Guanghui, there is still room for an increase in domestic production. Fundamentally, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will shift to inventory accumulation, and the available spot in the market will gradually become more abundant. It is expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will be adjusted weakly in the short term, and subsequent attention should be paid to cost - end changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the trading atmosphere improved. There were transactions for mid - and early - August at a discount of 10 - 15 to the 09 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4720 - 4780. For late - August, the mainstream was at a discount of 10 to the 09 contract, and some were slightly lower. There were transactions for mid - September at a premium of 0 - 2 to the 09 contract. The mainstream spot basis today is at a discount of 13 to the 09 contract [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4740, and the basis of the 09 contract is - 4, with the futures price at a premium. It is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared to the previous period. It is bullish [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position is short, and short positions are increasing. It is bearish [6]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and market negotiations were stalemated. The spot basis strengthened to a premium of 71 - 74 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. The intention of traders to follow up was weak. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market weakened slightly. Recent shipments were negotiated at around 522 - 525 US dollars/ton, and recent shipments were traded at around 521 - 523 US dollars/ton, with some traders participating in sales. The negotiation ranges for domestic and foreign market transactions were 4465 - 4494 yuan/ton and 521 - 524 US dollars/ton respectively [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4480, and the basis of the 09 contract is 75, with the futures price at a discount. It is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared to the previous period. It is bullish [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is short, and short positions are increasing. It is bearish [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity, production, supply, demand, inventory, and other data showed different trends. For example, in 2025, the production capacity continued to increase, and the production and supply also changed with the load rate. The demand was affected by factors such as polyester production capacity and load rate [10]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total operating rate, production, supply, demand, and port inventory of ethylene glycol also showed different trends. The production and supply were affected by the operating rate and new production capacity, while the demand was related to polyester production [11]. Price - **Spot Price**: The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan increased by 1.000 to 567.380 US dollars/ton; the spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR Taiwan, China decreased by 1.000 to 842 US dollars/ton; the CCFEI price index of domestic PTA decreased by 80.000 to 4740 yuan/ton; the CCFEI price index of domestic ethylene glycol decreased by 5.000 to 4480 yuan/ton [12]. - **Futures Price**: The prices of TA01, TA05, TA09, EG01, EG05, and EG09 all changed to varying degrees. For example, TA01 decreased by 58.000 to 4782 yuan/ton [12]. - **Basis and Margin**: The basis of PTA and MEG contracts and the processing margin of PTA and the profit of MEG also changed. The PTA processing margin decreased by 244.269 to 195.21 yuan/ton [12]. 5. Impact Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: Some PTA plants are planned for maintenance in August, and the supply - demand is expected to improve [8]. - **Negative Factors**: From the demand side, at the end of the rush - to - export period and in the off - season of domestic demand, the trend of weakening terminal demand is certain [8]. 6. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - aspect. Attention should be paid to the cost end, and for the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 4 日 苯乙烯：压缩利润注意止盈，短期逢高空 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,296 | 7,332 | -36 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2510 | 7,329 | 7,371 | -42 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,387 | 7,374 | 13 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB08-EB09 | -33 | -39 | 6 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB09-EB10 | -58 | -3 | -55 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 7370 | 20 | 资料来源：同花顺，卓创，国泰君安期货 【趋势 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Report's Core View - **Soybean Oil**: The improvement of weather in the main soybean - producing areas in the US has led to a decline in US soybeans, dragging down domestic beans. There is no obvious progress in soybean imports from the Sino - US economic and trade talks. The export of about one million tons of soybean oil from China, fewer oilseed purchases in the fourth quarter, and an increase in direct imports of protein meal are expected to converge the oil mill's profit, which is beneficial to the price of oils. It is recommended to buy on dips for the soybean oil 2601 contract. Support is at 8000 - 8030 yuan/ton, and resistance is at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Since July, the procurement and arrival of rapeseed in China have decreased, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory has declined from its high. However, it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years. With fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter, there is an expectation of future inventory reduction. The import profit of new - crop rapeseed is okay, but the uncertainty of China - Canada trade relations remains. It is advisable to trade within a range, buy on dips, and exit long positions at high levels. Support is at 9300 - 9330, and resistance is at 9683 - 9790 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows good production of Malaysian palm oil but weak export demand, increasing the inventory pressure in July. The willingness of the origin to support prices has weakened, improving the domestic import profit and increasing domestic inventory. The upward momentum of the futures price has weakened, with a short - term need for shock adjustment. Indonesia's palm oil production is lower than expected, and its inventory is at a low level. The US biodiesel policy is beneficial to the long - term demand for US soybean oil. From the perspective of the international soybean - palm oil price difference, palm oil is cost - effective, and there is restocking demand from India and China. There is support below the futures price. Indonesia is preparing for the B50 biodiesel test, potentially beneficial to the long - term price. It is recommended to buy on dips. Support is at 8704 - 8796, and resistance is at 9480 - 9490 [4]. - **Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: There is no obvious progress in soybean imports from the Sino - US economic and trade talks. The improvement of the good - rate of US soybeans and favorable weather in the main producing areas have led to a bottom - building of CBOT soybean futures prices. The increase in imports of low - priced soybean meal from Argentina and the promotion of soybean meal reduction and substitution in China have led to a continuous decline in soybean meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see for now. The support for the main soybean meal contract is at 2930 - 2950 yuan/ton, and the resistance is at 3080 - 3100 yuan/ton. The soybean No. 2 main 09 contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with resistance at 3750 - 3800 and support at 3550 - 3560 yuan/ton [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal shows a situation of both weak supply and demand. The cost - effectiveness of rapeseed meal is poor, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the third quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips. Support is at 2600 - 2621, and resistance is at 2791 - 2855 [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure from the harvest in South America and the expected increase in US corn planting area. The domestic market is in a game between the release of old - crop corn and tight supply in some areas. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips. The support for the corn 09 contract is at 2250 - 2260, and the resistance is at 2430 - 2450. For the corn starch 09 contract, the support is at 2600 - 2620, and the resistance is at 2830 - 2840 [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The gradual listing of new soybeans has increased supply, suppressing domestic soybean prices. It is recommended to wait and see for the main soybean No. 1 contract. The resistance for the 09 contract is at 4250 - 4300 yuan/ton, and the support is at 4000 - 4030 yuan/ton [6]. - **Peanut**: The low carry - over inventory of old - crop peanuts, the impact of the civil unrest in Sudan and the delay of port opening in Senegal on imports, and the high - level planting area and expected increase in yield of new - crop peanuts have different impacts on different contracts. It is recommended to take partial profit on short positions near the support level. The support for the 10 contract is at 8004 - 8020, and the resistance is at 8392 - 8398 [6]. - **Live Pig**: The futures price of live pigs is near - strong and far - weak. The spot price is likely to rise seasonally in August. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies for the 09 contract and wait for an opportunity to buy the 2511 contract on dips after the market cools down and the spot price rises [7]. - **Egg**: The egg 08 futures price has fallen back to the spot price, and the 09 contract has broken through the range. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling, pay attention to the positive spread between September and January, and aggressive investors can buy the 09 contract on dips. The reference range is 3500 - 3800 points [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 09 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see; Soybean No. 2 09 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see; Peanut 10 is expected to be weakly bearish, and it is recommended to take partial profit on short positions [11]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 is expected to be strongly bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips; Rapeseed oil 09 is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to buy on dips; Palm 09 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 09 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see; Rapeseed meal 09 is expected to be strongly bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 09 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and it is recommended to reduce short positions on dips; Corn starch 09 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and it is recommended to reduce short positions on dips [11]. - **Livestock**: Live pig 09 is expected to rebound, and it is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies; Egg 09 is expected to find the bottom, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - month Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see for most varieties, except for the positive spread for soybean meal 11 - 1 and the positive spread for live pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1 [12][13]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For oils, it is recommended to be bearish on 09 soybean oil - palm oil, bullish on 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and wait and see for 09 rapeseed oil - palm oil; For protein, 09 soybean meal - rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level; For the oil - meal ratio, it is recommended to go long on the 09 soybean oil - meal ratio and wait and see for the 09 rapeseed oil - meal ratio; For energy and by - products, it is recommended to wait and see for 09 starch - corn [13]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies There are data on spot prices, price changes, and basis changes for various varieties, but no specific strategies are mentioned other than the data presentation [14]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Tables a. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: There are data on the import cost of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates [16]. - **Weekly Data**: There are data on the inventory and operating rate of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [18]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: There are data on the import cost of corn from different countries and different months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: There are data on the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. c. Livestock - There are daily and weekly data on live pigs and eggs, including spot prices, production, consumption, and profit - related data [20][21][22][23][24]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock End (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: There are charts showing the closing price of the main live pig contract, the closing price of the main egg contract, spot prices, and other related data [25][28][29][34]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: There are charts showing the production, export, inventory, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [37][47][51]. - **Feed End**: There are charts showing the inventory, consumption, and profit - related data of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal [55][57][59]. Part Four: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils There are charts showing the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [71][72]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils There are charts showing the warehouse receipt situation of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [74][76][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, the US corn has a high excellent rate and good output prospects, pressuring international corn prices. In the domestic market, Northeast trade inventories are low, and feed - using enterprises only make rigid - demand purchases. Wheat substitution, import corn auctions, and deferred pick - up policies also restrict the corn market. Corn futures prices are weak this week [8][10]. - For corn starch, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. However, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Corn starch futures prices are oscillating at a low level recently [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Corn** - **Strategy**: Trade short - term [9]. - **Market review**: This week, corn futures oscillated and closed lower. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2297 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - **Market outlook**: As of July 27, 2025, the US corn excellent rate was 73%. In the domestic market, Northeast trade inventories are low, and feed - using enterprises make rigid - demand purchases. Wheat substitution, import corn auctions, and deferred pick - up policies restrict the market. The overall trading is cautious, and the futures price is still weak [10]. - **Corn Starch** - **Strategy**: Participate short - term [13]. - **Market review**: Dalian corn starch futures oscillated narrowly. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2668 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous week [14]. - **Market outlook**: Due to continuous losses, the industry's operating rate is low, reducing supply pressure. But downstream demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand is still loose. As of July 30, the national corn starch inventory was 129.3 tons, a weekly decrease of 1.37%, a monthly increase of 0.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.14%. The futures price oscillates at a low level [14]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes** - Corn futures' September contract oscillated and closed down, with a total position of 746,716 lots, a decrease of 105,390 lots from last week. Corn starch futures' September contract oscillated narrowly, with a total position of 158,356 lots, a decrease of 32,163 lots from last week [20]. - **Top Twenty Net Position Changes** - The top twenty net position of corn futures was - 20,885 this week, compared to - 12,000 last week, with an increase in net short positions. The top twenty net position of starch futures was - 18,086 this week, compared to - 16,822 last week, also with an increase in net short positions [27]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts** - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 153,041 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 0 lots [33]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trends** - As of July 31, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2404.02 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active September contract and the spot average price was + 107 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2900 yuan/ton, remaining stable this week. The basis between the September contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 182 yuan/ton [38][44]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread Changes** - The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 84 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 9 - 1 spread of starch was 87 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [50]. - **Futures Spread Changes** - The spread between the September contracts of starch and corn was 371 yuan/ton. In the 31st week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton from last week [59]. - **Substitute Spread Changes** - As of July 31, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2440.5 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2404.02 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 36.48 yuan/ton. In the 31st week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 140 yuan/ton, narrowing by 35 yuan/ton from last week [64]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn** - **Supply Side** - As of July 25, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 88.2 tons, a decrease of 5.8 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 0.7 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 210.6 tons, a weekly decrease of 10.3 tons, and the shipping volume was 39.3 tons, a weekly increase of 5.3 tons [54]. - In June 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 160,000 tons, a decrease of 760,000 tons (82.61%) from the same period last year and a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous month [72]. - As of July 31, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 30.58 days, a decrease of 0.29 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.83% [76]. - **Demand Side** - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 from the previous month and 103.7% of the normal reserve of 39 million [80]. - As of July 25, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 62.16 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 71.39 yuan/head [84]. - As of July 31, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 67 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was - 435 yuan/ton in Henan, - 612 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 193 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [88]. - **Corn Starch** - **Supply Side** - As of July 30, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.797 million tons, a decrease of 5.19% [92]. - From July 24 - 30, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 545,100 tons, an increase of 43,600 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 267,800 tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from last week; the operating rate was 51.76%, an increase of 6.3% from last week. As of July 30, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.293 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.37%, a monthly increase of 0.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.14% [96]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - As of August 1, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn was 9.76%, a decrease of 1.14% from 10.9% last week. The implied volatility oscillated and declined this week, being at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [99].

1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Copper market has a weak current demand but an improving outlook. The fundamentals suggest a stage of gradually decreasing supply growth and temporarily weak demand, with positive expectations [4]. - The cost - support logic for copper prices remains due to tight copper ore supply, and the supply of refined copper in China may slow down. On the demand side, it is expected to gradually improve from the off - season to the peak season, with external demand weakening and internal demand being weak in the short - term and gradually improving in the long - term [4]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Copper main contract had a weekly line that was oscillating weakly, with a weekly increase/decrease of - 1.07% and an amplitude of 1.7%. The closing price of the main contract as of this week was 78,400 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Situation**: In June, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7%. Real consumer spending increased by only 0.1% month - on - month, and disposable income remained flat in June after declining in May [4]. - **Domestic Situation**: In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing and comprehensive PMI output indices were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating that China's overall economic output continued to expand [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The TC fee for copper concentrates is still in the negative range, and domestic port inventories are continuously decreasing. The supply of refined copper in China may slow down due to policy guidance on the non - ferrous industry's production capacity and tight raw material supply. The downstream copper processing is in the off - season, but demand is expected to improve in the future. In August, the US exempted copper raw materials from tariffs, but still imposed high tariffs on copper products, so external demand is expected to weaken [4]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of August 1, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai Copper main contract was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 270 yuan/ton from the previous week. The main contract price was 78,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the open interest was 167,671 lots, a decrease of 13,159 lots from the previous week [9]. - **Spot Prices**: As of August 1, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 695 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: As of August 1, 2025, the inter - month spread of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Premiums and Positions**: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 62 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Copper was 3,657 lots, a decrease of 3,030 lots from the previous week [21]. - **Option Volatility**: As of August 1, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the Shanghai Copper main contract fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai Copper option open interest was 0.8671, an increase of 0.2260 from the previous week [26]. 3.3. Industrial Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Raw Material Prices**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate price in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 68,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous week. The southern rough copper processing fee was 900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [29]. - **Imports**: As of June 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3497 million tons, a decrease of 45,800 tons from May, a decline of 1.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. As of the latest data this week, the refined - scrap copper price difference (including tax) was 936.46 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340.74 yuan/ton from the previous week [34]. - **Global Production and Inventory**: As of May 2025, the global monthly output of copper concentrates was 2,006 thousand tons, an increase of 97 thousand tons from April, an increase of 5.08%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 80.2%, an increase of 1.1% from April. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 421,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the previous week [39]. 3.3.2. Supply - side - **Refined Copper Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly output of refined copper in China was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from May, an increase of 3.83%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.43%. As of May 2025, the global monthly output of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,395 thousand tons, an increase of 40 thousand tons from April, an increase of 1.7%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 80.1%, a decrease of 1.8% from April [42]. - **Imports**: As of June 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 337,042.568 tons, an increase of 44,348.26 tons from May, an increase of 15.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.23%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was 774.03 yuan/ton, an increase of 500.58 yuan/ton from the previous week [49][50]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory increased by 10,800 tons from the previous week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 7,096 tons from the previous week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4,216 tons from the previous week. The total social inventory was 121,300 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from the previous week [53]. 3.3.3. Downstream and Applications - **Copper Products**: As of June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.2145 million tons, an increase of 118,500 tons from May, an increase of 5.65%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 460,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from May, an increase of 6.98%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.55% [58]. - **Power and Appliance**: As of June 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid construction and power source construction increased by 14.6% and 5.9% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 16.5%, 3%, 4.8%, 18.9%, and - 11.1% year - on - year respectively [62]. - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of June 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 466.5756 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2% and a month - on - month increase of 28.77%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 239,469,611 thousand pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% and a month - on - month increase of 23.78% [69]. 3.3.4. Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: As of May 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 97 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance as of May 2025 was 84,200 tons [74].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 观望 | 供需方面，螺纹产量基本持平，需求环比回落，库存有所上升。铁水产量 | | | | 环比略降，绝对水平仍高。淡季中供需因素权重下降，市场情绪降温后或 | | | | 区间运行，短线或有反弹，但对上方高度不宜过分乐观。【3190，3250】 | | 热卷 | 观望 | 热卷产量、表需小幅回升，库存略增，基本面相对平稳，矛盾有限。热卷 | | | | 出口利润回落明显，后期出口或受一定影响。市场失望情绪释放后或有短 | | | | 线反弹，观望为宜。【3390，3450】 | | 铁矿石 | 空单持有 | 基本面看，铁水产量转降，供给端发货增到货受台风影响下降，后续发到 货预计有增量。港口钢厂库存双增。基本面中性，政治局会议阶段性不及 | | | | 预期，短期价格恐承压。【755,805】 | | | | 会议未释放刺激政策自己反内卷的增量信息，市场情绪有所降温。焦炭现 货自前期低点涨幅落后于期货，现货第五轮提涨。焦企利润仍不佳，生产 | | 焦炭 | 观望 | 积极性一般。焦炭供需总体相对平衡， ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 气候中心中性预期，且美豆种植天气基本顺利。国内大豆及豆粕累库阶段，预计将 | | | | 持续至 9 月底，8 月累库速度较 7 月预计有所放缓。中美贸易关税成为豆粕下档关 | | | | 键成本支撑。本周最新中美谈判结果出炉，维持原关税率，并再展期 90 天。成本 | | | | 支撑预期下，豆粕价格下档存在支持。在基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑的多 | | | | 空因素交织作用下，近两周内豆粕以大区间行情对待，技术操作为主。主力【2960， | | | | 3030】 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽少部分地区土壤墒情偏干，关注后续降雨情况。国 | | | | 内市场，目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较 | | | | 高水平。7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税，以及旧 | | | | 作加籽的强势。对菜粕价格构成较强支持，但不断改善的加籽进口利润对菜粕价格 | | 菜粕 | 大区间震荡 | 构成上档压力。现货市场方面， ...