| 公询 各资格:证监许可【 | ICTERIA | 日度 策略参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 往后看,随着市场对关税冲击的波动与政策护盘动能趋于衰减, | | | | 在缺乏增量催化因素的背景下,短期或转入震荡整固阶段。策略 | 最新 | 股指谨慎观望为主,关注宏观增量信号。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 宏观金融 | 国 | 空间。 | | | | | 金价短期或再度进入震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实。 | 農汤 | 用守 | 短期高位区间震荡，但中期上方空间有限。 | 震荡 | 日銀 | - Fel | | 海外铜矿供应扰动提振铜价,但近期国内外宏观数据偏弱压制市 | 看空 | 场风险偏好, 叠加铜下游需求有所转弱,铜价上行空间变限,短 | 期谨防回落风险。 | | | | | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间 | 農汤 ...

这几年来，令挖掘基感悟最深的一个词就是"变局"。过去对一切熟识的掌控感，开始逐渐被不确定性所取代。 一年期定期存款利率首次跌破1%、货基收益率持续下行……无风险利率带来的"稳稳的幸福"正在消失，而货币总量的增长与购买力可能的缩水却将伴随着 国民经济的滚滚向前如影随形。 一边是长期低利率时代的加速渐进，优质"资产荒"正从周期性现象走向新常态；另一边是权益市场的波动之频繁，愈发考验投资者的"顿感力"与配置智慧。 当变局与不确定性本身成为了最确定的主题，市场正在本能地追寻更稳健的价值锚点。 随着今日一则大消息传来——信用债ETF开展质押式回购即将正式实施 来源：智通财经 信用债ETF这个组合了稳健票息与交易灵活度的金融工具，正在完成从组合配角到核心拼图的进化。 01 工具解码 ——信用债ETF基金的双重底色 信用债ETF基金的内核，正是"信用债"叠加"ETF"所产生的化学反应。 所谓信用债，指的是依赖企业自身信用，而非政府直接背书的债券。 主要包括商业银行等金融机构发行的普通金融债，以及非金融企业（含城投、央国企）发行的公司债、企业债、中期票据、短期融资券等。 来源：中信建投证券 ——信用债ETF基金的三个认知 作 ...

Group 1 - Tianhong Credit Bond ETF (159398) saw a 0.05% increase in early trading on May 27, with a net inflow of over 1.2 billion yuan in the last five trading days and nine out of the last ten days showing net inflows [1] - The latest circulating scale of Tianhong Credit Bond ETF reached 5.583 billion yuan, setting a new historical high [1] - The implementation of the general pledge-style repurchase business for credit bond ETFs is expected to commence soon, with multiple public fund institutions' credit bond ETFs meeting the criteria to be included in the repurchase pledge library [1] Group 2 - High-grade industrial bonds are expected to see improved liquidity following the implementation of the company's bond renewal issuance policy, leading to increased differentiation in liquidity among different grades of credit bonds [2] - Low-grade credit bond issuers need to balance liquidity and maturity pressure, while high-grade credit bonds maintain a high market acceptance, with differences primarily in liquidity risk rather than credit risk [2] - The current "asset shortage" effect is slowing down, with the credit bond market entering a negative carry environment, making credit bonds' returns generally superior to interest rate bonds [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the bond market and the potential for an "asset shortage" in 2025, with a focus on government and non-government financing dynamics [1][2][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Government Bond Issuance**: - In the first five months of 2025, government bond issuance accelerated, with general government bonds reaching 1.9 trillion, accounting for approximately 40% of the annual plan, compared to 30% in the same period of 2024 [3][4]. - Local government bonds totaled 3.7 trillion, exceeding half of the annual quota, indicating a significant increase from previous years [3][4]. 2. **Non-Government Financing Trends**: - Non-government financing has been contracting, with a notable decrease in credit growth in the first quarter of 2025, adding only 280 billion, a significant drop year-on-year [5]. - The demand for non-government financing is influenced by actual profit levels, with rising costs and declining prices leading to reduced borrowing needs [5][6]. 3. **Impact of Price Declines**: - The downward pressure on prices has led to an increase in real interest rates, further suppressing the demand for non-government debt [6][10]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are both showing significant declines, which are expected to continue, impacting overall market liquidity [5][6]. 4. **Role of Household Savings**: - Household savings are flowing into broad fixed-income assets, providing stable support for the bond market, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.2% in March 2025 [7]. - This inflow is crucial as it offsets the potential decline in government bond supply and supports the overall demand for fixed-income assets [7][10]. 5. **Central Bank's Monetary Policy**: - The central bank is primarily supporting government bond issuance but shows limited willingness to actively inject funds [8][9]. - A significant increase in fiscal deposits suggests that funds will be gradually allocated, potentially leading to a passive easing scenario similar to Q3 2022 [9]. 6. **Potential for Asset Shortage**: - The combination of slowing asset supply and stable or increasing demand could lead to a re-emergence or intensification of asset shortages in the bond market [10]. - The market is transitioning from discussions of "liability shortages" to concerns about "asset shortages," driven by the dynamics of government bond issuance and non-government financing [10]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of leveraging short-term positions and extending duration on long-term bonds, particularly starting in mid-June 2025, to capitalize on potential opportunities in Q3 [11]. - The expectation is that the yield on 10-year government bonds may drop to a low of 1.4% to 1.5% within the year [11].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently experiencing a phase of cautious sentiment and narrow fluctuations, influenced by recent interest rate cuts and government bond supply dynamics [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite recent deposit rate cuts, the bond market has not reacted positively, as these cuts are viewed as a continuation of earlier rate reduction actions [2][3]. - From May 19 to May 23, the bond market showed a mixed performance, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 1 basis point to 1.69%, while the 3-year bond yield fell by 1 basis point to 1.49% [2]. - The issuance of long-term government bonds has been weak, with a notable decline in the bid-to-cover ratio for recent auctions, indicating reduced enthusiasm in the primary market [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - There is a significant mismatch between the growth rates of government bonds and bank liabilities, with government bond growth increasing from 17.0% to 20.7%, while bank liabilities only rose from 6.3% to 7.4% [3]. - The pressure on banks to absorb new government bond supply is expected to increase, leading to a potential reduction in their demand for bonds in the secondary market [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The supply pressure in the bond market is likely to ease in June and July, with a projected increase in government bond maturities and a slowdown in new bond issuance [4]. - Analysts anticipate that the net issuance of government bonds will decrease significantly in the second half of the year, which could improve the supply-demand dynamics in the bond market [4]. - There is a possibility of a "bond bull" market re-emerging, driven by stable demand for fixed-income assets and a potential decline in interest rates [5].

新华财经北京5月26日电 债市周一（5月26日）偏强整理，国债期货主力合约多数小幅收涨，银行间现 券收益率普遍下行1BP左右；公开市场单日净投放2470亿元，短端资金利率走势分化；上周存款降息、 LPR下调等操作落地，长债利率宽幅震荡回升，当下宽货币呵护资金面意图明确，政策持续对冲外需压 力，预计资金面易松难紧。 机构认为，基本面因素还难以打破债市窄幅波动格局，存款利率下行短期利好非银配置需求。若沿着债 市定价体系寻找机会，债券与信贷等广谱利率比相对合理，相比股市性价比偏低，中债是全球利率洼 地。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.13%报119.760，10年期主力合约持平于108.855，5年期主 力合约涨0.01%报106.060，2年期主力合约涨0.03%报102.430。 银行间主要利率债收益率小幅下行，10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率下行1.25BP至1.6915%，10年期国 债"25附息国债04"收益率下行0.25BP至1.682%，30年期国债"23附息国债23"收益率下行0.75BP至 1.908%，7年期国债"25附息国债07"收益率下行0.05BP至1.60 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: None - **Bearish**: Copper, Polycrystalline Silicon, Pure Lithium, Jiao Coal, Coke, BR Rubber, Pure Benzene, LPG - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Gold, Japanese Yen, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Urea, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] Core Viewpoints - The market's reaction to tariff impacts and policy support is waning, and in the absence of new catalysts, there are short - term risks of market fluctuations and adjustments [1]. - Asset shortages and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. - The risk of US Treasury bonds has eased, and gold prices may enter a period of oscillation, but the long - term upward trend remains [1]. - Various factors such as weak macro data, changes in supply and demand, and policy uncertainties are affecting the prices of different commodities, with most commodities expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: With the fading impact of tariffs and policy support, and the current rebound reaching the upper limit of the range, there is a short - term risk of oscillating adjustment in the absence of new catalysts [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortages and a weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. - **Gold**: The risk of US Treasury bonds has eased, and gold prices may enter a period of oscillation, but the long - term upward trend remains [1]. - **Japanese Yen**: It will oscillate in the short - term high - level range, but the medium - term upward space is limited [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak macro data and reduced downstream demand limit the upward space of copper prices, with a short - term risk of decline [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Low aluminum inventories support prices, but the upward space is limited as prices rise. For alumina, although the price is rising due to mine disturbances, the improvement in production profits may lead to复产, restricting the upward space [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Global trade frictions and policy uncertainties cause prices to oscillate in the short - term. Long - term, the supply of primary nickel is excessive, and stainless steel has supply pressure [1]. - **Tin**: Before the resumption of production at low - grade mines, the fundamentals of tin prices are strongly supported [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply remains high, it has entered a low - valuation range, and demand remains low [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Downstream production schedules are rapidly decreasing, futures premiums over spot prices, and warehouse receipts are increasing [1]. - **Pure Lithium**: Mine prices are continuously falling without signs of production cuts, and downstream buyers are not active [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The market is in a transition period from peak to off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns, and no clear upward price drivers [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation that iron - water production has reached its peak, but there are no new supply - side developments, and attention should be paid to steel pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon has short - term supply - demand balance with high warehouse - receipt pressure; ferrosilicon's cost is affected by thermal coal, but production cuts in the production area have tightened supply - demand [1]. Building Materials - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about declining demand. Soda ash has good immediate demand due to many maintenance activities in May, but faces medium - term supply overcapacity and price pressure [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Palm oil is affected by factors such as Indonesian weather and US biodiesel proposals; soybean oil is affected by Argentine weather with limited impact; rapeseed oil is affected by potential tariff increases, but the impact has been mostly priced in [1]. - **Cotton**: There are short - term disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums, and long - term macro uncertainties. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - cane ratio and sugar production [1]. - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is expected to have a tight supply - demand situation in the medium - term, with short - term factors limiting the upward space of the futures price. Soybeans face pressure from concentrated arrivals and fast sowing progress, and low - valuation buying is recommended [1]. - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp port inventories are rising, with some improvement in white - cardboard demand. Logs have a pattern of loose supply and weak demand, and both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Hogs**: With the continuous restoration of hog inventories and increasing slaughter weights, the futures market has a clear expectation of sufficient supply, and the futures price is expected to remain stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, and Asphalt**: Crude oil and fuel oil are affected by factors such as the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation and OPEC+ production - increase news. Asphalt is affected by cost drag, inventory changes, and slow demand recovery [1]. - **Shanghai Rubber and BR Rubber**: Shanghai rubber is affected by factors such as rainfall and storage - purchase rumors. BR rubber's short - term upward sentiment has slowed, and there is a risk of long - term decline [1]. - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, and Short Fiber**: PTA's supply - demand situation has improved, ethylene glycol is in a de - stocking phase, and short - fiber costs are closely related to PTA [1]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The speculative demand for pure benzene has weakened, and styrene plants have increased production and are actively selling [1]. - **Urea and Methanol**: Urea demand is weak, and methanol is expected to oscillate at a low level, with attention to factors such as plant maintenance and imports [1]. - **PE, PP, and PVC**: PE's seasonal demand is weakening, PP's production has recovered, and PVC has a weak fundamental situation but is supported by macro factors [1]. - **Caustic Soda and LPG**: Caustic soda is affected by the alumina market, and LPG is expected to decline due to factors such as tariff relaxation and the off - season [1]. Others - The market has a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. For futures, it is recommended to try long - positions in the peak - season contracts with light positions and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Market Overview - The market trading volume remains at a medium-low level, with stock rotation occurring rapidly under the influence of existing funds [1] - Major indices showed slight declines this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.57%, Shenzhen Index down 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.47% [2] - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a significant drop of 3.68%, indicating a notable decline in micro-cap stocks [2] - The trading volume for micro-cap stocks approached the highest level since December 2023, indicating a crowded trading environment [2] Interest Rate Impact - On May 20, the central bank lowered the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) by 10 basis points, resulting in rates of 3% and 3.5% respectively [3] - Major state-owned banks collectively reduced deposit rates, with 1-year fixed deposits falling below 1% and 5-year deposits below 1.5% [3] - The decline in risk-free rates is expected to increase the value of companies, particularly those with high dividend yields [3] Investment Opportunities - High-quality assets are defined by several criteria: high profitability/dividend certainty, industry leadership with high barriers to entry, low PE ratios (below 20 or even 10), and a revenue structure primarily focused on domestic markets [3] - The current market environment suggests a potential style shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks, benefiting high-quality assets [3][4] - Investors are advised to focus on certainty in uncertain markets, with a preference for companies that have stable operating performance and dividends [4]

Group 1 - Major commercial banks have lowered RMB deposit rates, with the one-year fixed deposit rate falling below 1% for the first time, sparking discussions on investment and financial planning in a low-interest-rate environment [2] - The market had anticipated this decline in deposit rates, as the need for monetary policy to stimulate the economy and stabilize the housing market continues, leading to a decrease in loan rates and a historical low net interest margin of 1.43% for commercial banks [2] - The ongoing trend of declining interest rates will significantly impact investment and financial planning strategies [4] Group 2 - In the current low-interest-rate environment, traditional financial products that guarantee returns, such as fixed deposits and certain insurance products, offer limited yields, making them less suitable for investors seeking substantial returns [4] - The capital market is experiencing an "asset shortage," where investors struggle to obtain returns that match the risks they are taking, leading to a need for a shift in investment strategy [6] - A recommended investment approach is to extend the investment horizon and focus on long-term value growth, aligning with the national encouragement for "patient capital" to support new productive forces and high-quality development in the capital market [6] Group 3 - Options for investing as "patient capital" include investing in stocks or funds with a long-term perspective, avoiding short-term trading, and maintaining emotional stability during market fluctuations [8] - Another option is to purchase participating insurance, allowing insurance companies, which are skilled in long-term investments, to manage assets while ensuring capital preservation and potential high returns from economic recovery [8]

证券研究报告 固收 沿着债市定价体系找机会 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 25 日│中国内地 利率周报 研究员 张继强 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 吴宇航 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 仇文竹 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 欧阳琳 SAC No. S0570123070159 ouyanglin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 朱逸敏 SAC No. S0570124070133 zhuyimin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 与信贷等广谱利率对比：债市定价基本合理 债券与存贷款之间会通过比价效应和机构行为传导。但本次 LPR 下调后， 一些银行通过减少加点幅度，仍维持新增按揭贷款 3%的原利率。如果 3% 是房贷利率的 ...