1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stocks: Short - term shock, biased towards strong operation, short - term cautious long [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term high - level shock, cautious observation [2] - Commodities: - Black: Short - term low - level shock rebound, short - term cautious long [2] - Non - ferrous: Short - term shock correction, short - term cautious observation [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious observation [2] - Precious metals: Short - term high - level shock, cautious long [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US has postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date and imposed new tariffs on some countries, increasing short - term tariff risks and cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, the June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date from July 9th to August 1st, sent letters to 14 countries about new tariffs (25% on Japan and South Korea), increasing short - term tariff risks, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite cooled [2]. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated; domestic consumption policy stimulus increased, and the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized "anti - involution", which helped boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets, RMB appreciation, and continued warming of domestic market sentiment led to an increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks short - term shock, biased towards strong; treasury bonds short - term high - level shock; black commodities short - term low - level shock rebound; non - ferrous short - term shock correction; energy and chemicals short - term shock; precious metals short - term high - level shock [2]. 3.2 Stocks - Driven by sectors such as CSSC, power, and cross - border payment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. China's June PMI data continued to rise, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. The current trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward drivers weakened. Short - term cautious long [3]. 3.3 Precious metals - Trump's tariff announcements increased market risk - aversion sentiment, but the strengthening US dollar and better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data, as well as the Fed's cautious attitude, put pressure on precious metals. The "Big Beautiful Act" provides long - term support for gold. Tariff disturbances will be the main short - term influencing factor, and gold volatility is expected to rise [4]. 3.4 Black metals 3.4.1 Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets declined slightly, and trading volume remained low. The focus shifted to tariff negotiations. Vietnam imposed anti - dumping tariffs on Chinese hot - rolled steel, and the off - season affected demand. Supply - side production decreased, but finished product output increased slightly. Cost support was strong. Short - term range - bound thinking [5][7]. 3.4.2 Iron ore - Iron ore spot and futures prices declined slightly. Iron production decreased, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. After the end - of - quarter shipment peak, shipping volume decreased, and arrival volume increased slightly. If iron production continues to decline, ore prices may fall [7]. 3.4.3 Silicon manganese/silicon iron - Spot prices were flat. Demand for ferroalloys was okay due to the increase in steel output, but there was a possibility of a decline in finished product output. Manganese ore prices rose. The market was expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. 3.4.4 Soda ash - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the signal of "anti - involution" from the Central Financial and Economic Commission, there were concerns about production capacity withdrawal in the glass industry, which initially drove up the price, but then it fell due to the weak supply - demand situation. Supply decreased due to equipment maintenance, demand increased slightly, and profit decreased. In the long run, supply remained loose, and it was not advisable to go long [9]. 3.4.5 Glass - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, there were expectations of production cuts in the glass industry, which drove up the price. Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and profit was at a low level. Production - cut expectations on the supply side were expected to support prices [10]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and new energy 3.5.1 Copper - The market may fluctuate as the July 9th deadline approaches. The clarity of trade tariffs may help the market rise. China's refined copper production increased in 2025, and inventory was at a medium - low level due to high demand [11]. 3.5.2 Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum fell due to tariff concerns. LME inventory increased, and domestic inventory also increased slightly [11]. 3.5.3 Aluminum alloy - Entered the off - season, demand was weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supported prices. Short - term shock, biased towards strong, but limited upside [11]. 3.5.4 Tin - Supply increased as the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded. Demand was weak in most sectors, and inventory increased. Short - term shock, but high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weakening demand would limit the upside in the medium term [12]. 3.5.5 Lithium carbonate - The main contract price fluctuated slightly. Supply faced a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. Cost support was strong. Viewed as shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.6 Industrial silicon - The main contract price was stable, and the spot price rebounded. Total production decreased due to reduced furnace - opening in the north. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.7 Polysilicon - The main contract price was strong, especially in the far - month contracts. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, expected to be strong, with high price elasticity [13][14]. 3.6 Energy and chemicals 3.6.1 Crude oil - Strong demand offset concerns about OPEC+ production increase and US tariffs. Short - term shock [15]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Oil prices were low, asphalt prices were in shock. Shipping volume decreased, factory inventory decreased slowly, and social inventory increased slightly. Followed crude oil at a high level [15]. 3.6.3 PX - After the decline in crude oil premium, the PX price weakened, and the PXN spread narrowed. PTA production recovery would support PX, and the weakening trend might slow down [15]. 3.6.4 PTA - Spot liquidity improved, inventory increased, and the basis and 9 - 1 spread weakened. Downstream operating rates continued to decline, and PTA prices had room to fall [16]. 3.6.5 Ethylene glycol - Port inventory decreased, supply pressure weakened, but downstream demand limited further inventory reduction. Short - term bottom - building, followed the polyester sector weakly [16]. 3.6.6 Short - fiber - Crude oil price decline drove down short - fiber prices. It followed the polyester sector, with weak terminal orders and high inventory. It would be in a weak shock pattern in the medium term [16]. 3.6.7 Methanol - Domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals provided short - term support, but international production recovery and expected downstream maintenance led to a poor supply - demand outlook. It rebounded slightly under policy influence, with limited upside [16]. 3.6.8 PP - Production - restriction and new capacity coexisted, supply pressure eased slightly. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and oil prices were weak. Prices were expected to fall further [17]. 3.6.9 LLDPE - Equipment maintenance increased, but production was still high year - on - year. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and inventory was expected to increase. Prices were under pressure [17]. 3.7 Agricultural products 3.7.1 Palm oil - As of July 4, 2025, domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in June, exports increased, and inventory was expected to decrease. Concerns about the US EPA hearing [19]. 3.7.2 Corn - Imported corn auctions and new wheat substitution increased supply, and futures prices were expected to weaken. However, it was difficult for futures to trade at a discount. The expected import volume was not expected to affect the new - season market, but there were concerns about pests and diseases [19][21]. 3.7.3 US soybeans - The price of CBOT soybeans fell. The planting area was determined, and weather in the 7 - 8 key growth period was crucial. The current growing environment was good, but the risk of tariff implementation increased export uncertainty [20]. 3.7.4 Soybean and rapeseed meal - Soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal inventory increased. Oil mills had high operating rates, and supply was abundant. The supply pressure in the 09 contract period was difficult to relieve, but short - term stability in US soybeans provided some support [20]. 3.7.5 Soybean and rapeseed oil - Soybean oil production decreased, rapeseed oil inventory decreased slightly. Rapeseed oil was supported by policies and the international market, and soybean oil inventory increased. They lacked an independent market and were affected by palm oil [20]. 3.7.6 Pigs - Leading enterprises had low willingness to increase sales volume and reduce weight. Supply in July was expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea in spring. There was a weak supply - demand situation, and the expected profit in the 8 - 9 peak season was low. Second - fattening was cautious, and the concentrated supply at the end of July and August would limit price increases [21].

Group 1 - The global gold market is experiencing a volatile phase, with Shanghai gold TD prices slightly down by 0.10% to 770.8 CNY per gram, indicating a potential turning point after a sustained upward trend [1] - Citibank's report suggests that the significant rise in gold prices has been driven by diminishing safe-haven demand, predicting that the current bull market may be nearing its end [2][3] - Central bank gold purchases dropped by 33% in Q1 2024 compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in buying even from major consumers like China [3] Group 2 - The influence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on gold prices is critical, as rising real interest rates could diminish gold's appeal, especially if inflation remains high [3] - The large-scale economic stimulus plan proposed in the U.S. budget for 2025 may negatively impact gold prices by shifting investor focus towards riskier assets like stocks [3] - India and China account for over 60% of global gold jewelry demand, and their sensitivity to price changes could lead to decreased purchases if gold prices remain high [4] Group 3 - Brand gold prices in retail stores on July 7, 2025, range from 982 to 1006 CNY per gram, reflecting slight variations among different brands [5] - Financial institutions and manufacturers show a range of gold bar prices from 634 to 816 CNY per gram, influenced by brand premiums and production costs [6] - The current market conditions suggest a critical turning point for gold prices, with reduced safe-haven demand and investment enthusiasm indicating potential downward pressure [8]

夏季多雨，虽然带来清凉，但也暗藏多重健康与安全风险。 蹚水后突发高烧、小腿红肿，可能是感染了"丹毒"；校园内外积水，暗藏溺水危机，老旧校舍存在垮塌 风险；山洪、内涝等可能带来险情……面对这些潜在风险，科学防范与系统应对至关重要。 个人健康 当心蹚水染"丹毒" 中南大学湘雅医院皮肤科副主任医师、副教授李芳芳介绍，暴雨会导致部分路段积水，蹚水通过可能潜 藏健康风险，引发"丹毒"。 "直白地说，'丹毒'就是皮肤发炎的升级版。"李芳芳告诉记者，它通常是因为β—溶血性链球菌钻进了 皮肤上一些小伤口产生细菌感染，进而导致的皮肤红肿、发热、疼痛，严重时会起水疱、发烧。从表面 特征看，皮肤像被烫伤一样，红彤彤一片，边界还特别明显，摸上去又烫又疼。 "脚气抓破皮、抠烂的蚊子包，甚至脚后跟自然干裂的口子等，都有可能成为细菌入侵的目标。"李芳芳 说。 "一旦怀疑患上'丹毒'，务必及时就医。"李芳芳表示，"医生通常会根据病情开具口服或静脉注射的抗生 素进行规范、足疗程的治疗，切勿自行处理或拖延，以免感染扩散，引发更严重的并发症，如蜂窝织 炎、败血症等；治疗期间需要充分休息，抬高患肢以减轻肿胀，并严格遵医嘱用药。" 面对"丹毒"感染风 ...

今日A股涨跌不一。上证指数收于3473.13点，上涨0.02%，成交额4762亿元；深证成指收于10435.51 点，下跌0.70%，成交额9324亿元。两市涨多跌少，板块方面，公用事业、房地产等板块领涨，煤炭、 医药生物等板块回调。 从成本与盈利的逻辑看，上半年钢铁企业已享受到部分原料价格下行的红利，企业利润率及稳定性处于 近几年同期的较高水平。随着矿、焦的新增产能进入集中释放期，钢铁的成本端优势有望保持，销售价 格或将保持平稳。伴随成本端压力的减轻，经营弹性释放，行业有望演绎相对独立的上涨行情。此外， 头部公司直供下游比例较高，近年来利润稳定性进一步增强，具备类红利资产特征。感兴趣的投资者建 议关注钢铁ETF（515210） 今日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年6月末，我国外汇储备规模为33174亿美元，较5月末 上升322亿美元，升幅为0.98%。中国央行连续第8个月增持黄金，较上月增持速度有所回升。6月，世 界黄金协会与YouGov联合调研的数据显示，在72家受访央行中，43%明确表示预期其黄金储备将在未 来12个月内增加，这一比例较去年的29%大幅跃升，创下该项调研8年来的历史新高。更值 ...

"当美国疯狂印钞时，中国却在默默囤积黄金！"这绝不是危言耸听——央行最新数据显示，我国已连续 8个月增持黄金，总储备量逼近2300吨。而在这背后，一场关乎全球经济格局的暗战正在上演…… 中美俄的黄金"三国杀" 翻开全球黄金储备榜单，美国以8133吨高居榜首，德国紧随其后，而中国的2298吨看似遥不可及。但鲜 为人知的是，俄罗斯过去十年已悄悄将黄金储备翻倍！更耐人寻味的是，美联储的黄金储备自1952年起 就再未变动，而中国同期却增持了足足800吨。 世界黄金协会最新调查揭示惊人数据：95%的央行计划继续增持黄金。这绝非偶然——当美债收益率波 动如过山车，当比特币等加密货币暴涨暴跌，黄金始终保持着"定海神针"的属性。 经济学家温彬指出关键：全球政治经济形势剧变下，黄金的避险属性愈发凸显。特别是美国新政府上台 后，贸易摩擦、科技封锁等不确定性加剧，各国央行不得不通过黄金构筑"金融防波堤"。正如纽约联储 前主席所说："黄金不是历史的遗迹，而是未来的保险单。" 人民币国际化的黄金密码 当前我国黄金储备占比仅为7%，远低于全球15%的平均水平。但王青等专家揭示的深层逻辑令人振 奋：每增持一吨黄金，都是为人民币国际化添砖加 ...

理性投资，风险自担 核心观点 基本面：美国关税谈判大限将至，但与多数国家谈判陷入僵局，美国经济政策不确定性指数长期持续处于历史高位，美国 的逆全球化和贸易保护主义行为对全球经济和金融市场带来巨大冲击，制造业、出口型企业股票和大宗商品等资产收益受损 ，在当前全球经济与地缘政治不稳定的环境下，贵金属作为一项战略性资产具备良好的抵御风险能力，贵金属等避险资产需 求上升，全球央行加仓黄金意愿更加强烈。 资金面：上周COMEX黄金和白银库存有所回落；全球黄金储备不断延续走高，近4 3 %的央行计划在未来一年内 增加自身黄金储备；全球主要白银ETF资金加速流入，白银较黄金资金关注度上升；上周对冲基金多头在黄金 上增持力度放缓。 策略：沪金价格长期看多，短期延续高位震荡，中期建议持多；沪银短期维持高位震荡，中期建议持多或急跌 震荡区间下沿做多。 风险提示：地缘政治冲突，美国货币与财政政策，关税贸易风险 目 录 1 行情回顾 2 宏观面：关注美国关税政策扰动 3 持仓分析：对冲基金更关注白银机会 4 其他要素 行情回顾 重点指标涨跌幅 | 品 种 | 重点数据指标 | 最新 | 一 期 | 上 一 | 期 | 周变化 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been consistently increasing its gold reserves, reaching 73.9 million ounces by the end of June 2025, marking an increase of 70,000 ounces from the previous month, and this is the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [2]. Group 1: Reasons for Increasing Gold Reserves - The global political and economic landscape is complex and uncertain, especially following the policies of the Trump administration, making gold a preferred safe-haven asset [3]. - China's gold reserves as a percentage of total international reserves are relatively low compared to the global average, which is around 15%. As of December 2024, gold accounted for only 5.5% of China's official international reserves [4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - It is likely that China will continue to increase its gold reserves to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi and enhance the credibility of its sovereign currency [6]. - The ongoing global uncertainties provide motivation for the central bank to keep accumulating gold [7]. Group 3: Gold Price Trends - In the first half of this year, the London spot gold price rose by 25.7%, marking the largest half-year increase since the second half of 2007. Long-term factors such as geopolitical conflicts, a weakening dollar, and central bank purchases are expected to support further increases in gold prices [8].

Group 1 - Current gold prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, trading around $3327.25 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical developments and market sentiment [1] - The upcoming meeting between US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss a ceasefire in Gaza is expected to ease market tensions, impacting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][3] - The market is closely watching the US Treasury Secretary's indication of a potential extension of tariff deadlines to August 1, which may further alleviate concerns [1] Group 2 - Gold prices are currently in a consolidation phase, with August futures around $3340, indicating a trading range between $3250 and $3476.30 [3] - Retail investor sentiment is bullish, with 59% expecting gold prices to rise, although a lack of new fundamental catalysts may keep prices in a high-level fluctuation [3][4] - Long-term factors such as US debt crisis, a weakening dollar, and inflationary pressures are expected to support gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven and store of value [4] Group 3 - The potential for gold prices to break above $3500 exists if new geopolitical or macroeconomic catalysts emerge, despite current short-term volatility [4] - Investors are advised to monitor trade negotiations, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and interest rate decisions from Australia and New Zealand for potential investment opportunities in the gold market [4]

2025年7月7日 星期一 股债 数据体现我国经济韧性,市场避险情绪缓和,建议股指多头持有。市场利率 盘整,国债走势窄幅反弹,国债多头轻仓持有。 黑色 临汾地区部分停产煤矿将陆续复产,"反内卷"下成材供应有望收缩,盘面 迎来反弹,原料跟涨,关注政策的具体文件落地以及需求跟进情况。 黄金 油粗 美豆种植面积预估仅下调有限,美中西部天气持续改善提振大豆产量前景, 南美大豆丰产持续出口。7月份进口大豆到港约1000万吨,油厂开机率维持高 位,油厂提货量高位,豆粕库存快速攀升,豆粕短期偏震荡。 譯張 CPEC+加大增产力度施压油价,PX持续去库,跟随油价波动;PTA供需预期转 弱,短期跟随成本波动;MEC供需趋弱,盘面承压。 生猪 市场对美联储降息预期下降,最早降息时间可能推至10月,关注本周美联储 会议纪要:大而美法案通过. 加之7月9日贸易关税暂停最后期限临近,特朗 普关税信函增加市场不确定性,避险情绪回升。预计黄金维持高位震荡。 原木 现货市价格偏稳运行,到港量预计环增,供应压力回升,日均出库量维持在6 万方以上,供需矛盾不大,关注原木期货首次交割对原木价格的影响。 橡胶 东南亚产区天气趋于缓和,割胶工作逐步恢 ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold prices has led consumers to deliberate on whether to purchase gold, particularly for jewelry or investment purposes [1] - The current gold price is influenced by international market trends, interest rate expectations, and heightened risk aversion [4] Price Trends - Major gold retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook are quoting prices between 1003-1005 yuan per gram, an increase of 5-7 yuan from previous prices [4] - China Gold's price is lower at 969 yuan per gram, allowing for significant savings when purchasing larger quantities [4] Price Differentiation - The price of jewelry gold is significantly higher than investment gold due to factors like craftsmanship, brand premium, and operational costs [5] - For example, a 10-gram gold chain from Chow Tai Fook costs approximately 10,050 yuan, while an equivalent investment gold bar costs around 7,850 yuan, highlighting a price difference of 2,200 yuan [5] Purchasing Strategies - For investment purposes, it is advisable to choose investment gold bars or wholesale gold, which have lower premiums and are closer to international gold prices [6] - For personal use or collection, consumers should compare prices across different brands to find the best deal [8] - For savings or appreciation, it is recommended to wait for a slight correction in international gold prices or to use a dollar-cost averaging strategy to mitigate investment risks [8] Timing for Purchase - Concerns about buying at a peak are valid, but high price levels do not necessarily indicate an imminent drop [9] - Gold investment should focus on long-term value preservation rather than short-term speculation [9] - If there is a pressing need and funds can be held long-term, short-term price fluctuations may be less impactful [9] Conclusion - The ongoing rise in gold prices necessitates careful consideration in purchasing decisions [10] - Consumers should align their gold product choices and timing with their specific needs to avoid unnecessary losses and achieve investment goals [10]