Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On July 30, 2025, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends. The prices of some industrial silicon products dropped, while the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon increased. The prices of polysilicon and downstream products such as silicon wafers, cells, and modules remained stable [1]. - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase steadily, and the demand is mixed. The polysilicon market is in a situation where supply may increase slightly and demand is still weak. Both markets have fluctuating sentiments, and operations require caution [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Industrial Silicon Spot Prices**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 in different regions decreased, with drops ranging from 0.52% - 1.53%. The average price of oxygenated 553 also decreased, with drops between 1.01% - 1.53%. The average price of 421 in some regions decreased, and in some regions it remained unchanged [1]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 4.88% to 9,350 yuan/ton [1]. - **Polysilicon Spot Prices**: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged [1]. - **Polysilicon Futures Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 2.83% to 50,805 yuan/ton [1]. - **Silicon Wafer, Cell, and Module Prices**: All remained unchanged [1]. - **Organic Silicon Prices**: DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil prices all remained unchanged [1]. Industry News - Affected by the strong performance of industrial silicon prices and the increase in raw coal prices, the price of non - bonded silicon coal in Xinjiang increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of silicon coal in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the prices in Gansu and Shaanxi remained stable [1]. - Some domestic component companies slightly increased their centralized quotes due to cost - side pressure, but downstream acceptance was low, and recent transactions would mainly involve bargaining [1]. - European photovoltaics and energy storage power station developer SUNOTEC and Sungrow signed a strategic cooperation agreement to deploy 2.4GWh of battery energy storage systems in multiple solar projects in Europe [1]. Investment Strategies Industrial Silicon - Supply is expected to increase steadily as some silicon plants in Xinjiang resume production and the southwestern production areas enter the wet season. Demand is mixed, with polysilicon companies reducing production, some silicon material plants having复产 plans, organic silicon supply tightening due to an accident at a major factory, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchasing on demand [1]. - The industrial silicon futures and spot prices have rebounded, but the bullish sentiment is volatile, and operations need to be cautious. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of production of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - Supply may increase slightly as silicon material companies maintain production cuts and some may have new production capacity. Demand is still weak as the photovoltaic market is sluggish, but the trading atmosphere has improved slightly [1]. - The polysilicon futures price has continued to rise since the end of June, but the sentiment is volatile, and operations need to be cautious. Future attention should be paid to macro - sentiment evolution and warehouse receipt registration [1].

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic [1] Market Data Summary Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, commodities like coking coal, glass, and polysilicon had significant price increases, with coking coal rising 35.96%, glass 25.99%, and polysilicon 16.36%. Some commodities like corn, palm oil, and crude oil saw price drops, with corn down 0.13%, palm oil 0.31%, and crude oil 0.56% [2] A - share Indexes - A - share indexes such as CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 all increased, with CSI 500 rising 3.28%, SSE 50 1.12%, and CSI 300 1.69% [2] Overseas Stock Indexes - Overseas stock indexes including Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500 also rose, with Nikkei 225 up 4.11%, Hang Seng Index 2.27%, and S&P 500 1.46% [2] Bond Market - Chinese government bonds of different maturities showed price increases, with 5 - year bonds rising 5.91%, 10 - year bonds 4.35%, and 2 - year bonds 3.28% [2] Foreign Exchange Market - The euro - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.99%, while the US dollar index decreased by 0.80%, and the US dollar middle - price decreased by 0.11% [2] Commodity Views Summary Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include large - scale infrastructure projects, A - share market trends, and high trading volume. Bearish factors involve profit - taking pressure, regulatory measures, and increased market risk aversion [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include loose monetary policy and potential interest rate cuts. Bearish factors involve the stock - bond seesaw effect and changes in market expectations [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include strong demand in the peak season and supply - side issues. Bearish factors involve high refinery operating rates and seasonal demand changes [5] Agricultural Products Sector Palm Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include policy support and supply - demand imbalances. Bearish factors involve high production and low exports [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include policy support and low inventory. Bearish factors involve macro events and weakening demand [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include policy expectations and inventory changes. Bearish factors involve speculative inventory and weak real - estate demand [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include expected interest rate cuts and increased risk aversion. Bearish factors involve trade negotiation progress and a strong US dollar [7] Black Metals Sector Coking Coal - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include high iron - water production and price increases in related products. Bearish factors involve regulatory policies and increased supply [7]

周二，玻璃期货延续跌势，主力合约早盘下探1139元/吨的一周低位后有所回升，最终收报1188元/吨，跌幅7.19%，持仓量大幅减少6.75万手。现 货市场同步走弱，华北地区5.00mm玻璃大板现货报价回落10元至1250元/吨，沙河市场价格重心下移，经销商和期现商以销售库存货源为主。市场 分析指出，这一走势反映出在前期"反内卷"政策预期推动的快速上涨后，市场开始回归基本面现实。 银河期货分析指出："反内卷政策进入加速交易阶段后，市场情绪进一步激化，价格进入快速上涨的尾部行情。但盘面锁货压力仍在，下游刚需消 化能力有限，投机库存逐渐增加。"这种政策预期与基本面现实的背离，为价格回调埋下伏笔。 政策预期退潮与监管干预，玻璃价格跌势何时才能止住？ 7月以来，市场对建材领域"反内卷"政策预期的炒作推动玻璃价格快速上涨。生态环境部发布的《玻璃工业大气污染防治可行技术指南(征求意见 稿)》和市场监管总局的《价格法修正草案》都强化了供给侧改革的预期。恒银期货表示："政策面清晰引导的'去内卷化'目标，与环保新政倒逼供 给侧深度调整的路径高度契合，形成共振效应。" 然而，随着交易所对相关品种实施限仓制度，市场情绪明显降温。三立 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent market volatility is driven by intense corrections in speculation, raising questions about whether the current supply-side policy-driven rally has ended or is merely a "backward catch" opportunity [3][8]. Policy Analysis - The government has emphasized the need to combat deflation through supply-side policies, such as halting the addition of excess capacity and promoting domestic consumption. The scope of supply rationalization measures has expanded to include metals, petrochemicals, and industries like lithium and coal, which have reported supply disruptions [3][9]. - Historical responses to deflation have varied, with the current situation being unique due to the predominance of advanced capacity and the fragmented industrial landscape, alongside high government debt limiting fiscal space [3][9][10]. Commodity-Specific Insights - Lithium prices have rebounded but remain below marginal cash costs of $11,500/ton, with approximately 45% of global capacity unable to cover cash costs at a price of $9,000/ton. This suggests limited downside potential for prices [4][13]. - Recent compliance checks in the lithium sector may lead to short-term supply disruptions, with around 20,000 tons of lithium capacity facing compliance risks, potentially resulting in significant inventory depletion and price rebounds [14]. - In the coal sector, production inspections are focused on preventing overproduction, with expectations of moderate impacts. However, recent price declines may limit further downside [5][15]. Agricultural Sector Developments - The hog farming industry is actively responding to regulatory controls by reducing breeding sow inventories and adjusting market weights, which may support near-term price stability and long-term valuation increases [6][16]. Market Trends and Expectations - The bond market reflects expectations of prolonged deflation, with government policies aimed at supply-side constraints potentially boosting industrial prices and improving upstream profits. This may reduce the urgency for monetary easing [6][17]. - The recent surge in government infrastructure investment, such as the $1.2 trillion Tibet dam project, has also contributed to supply concerns and influenced market dynamics [6][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and summarizes the long - short views and trading logic of various futures varieties [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From July 21 to July 25, 2025, among commodities, the prices of some commodities such as coking coal, glass, and polysilicon increased significantly, with coking coal rising 35.96%, glass 25.99%, and polysilicon 16.36%. While the prices of some commodities such as corn, palm oil, and crude oil decreased, with corn down 0.13%, palm oil 0.31%, and crude oil 0.56% [2]. - **Stocks**: A - shares (CSI 500, SSE 50, etc.), overseas stocks (Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, etc.) generally showed an upward trend. For example, the CSI 500 rose 3.28%, the Nikkei 225 4.11%, and the Hang Seng Index 2.27% [2]. - **Bonds**: The prices of Chinese treasury bonds (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year) all increased, with the 5 - year treasury bond rising 5.91%, the 10 - year 4.35%, and the 2 - year 3.28% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.99%, while the US dollar index fell 0.80% and the US dollar intermediate price fell 0.11% [2]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include large - scale infrastructure projects driving policy - based demand expectations, the fermentation of the anti - involution market, the rise of pro - cyclical sectors, and the increase in A - share trading volume. The bearish factors include the pressure of short - term profit - taking, potential regulatory measures, the reduction of ETF shares, and increased market risk aversion [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the central bank's loose liquidity policy, the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the potential improvement of the bond market sentiment. The bearish factors include the stock - bond seesaw effect, the improvement of corporate expectations, and the expected fiscal expansion [4]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include strong fundamental demand in the peak season, potential interest rate cuts, tight Russian shipments, and a decline in US crude oil production. The bearish factors include the peak refinery utilization rate, a stronger US dollar, seasonal demand weakness, and the potential return of Iranian supply [5]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the unexpected US biodiesel policy, increased domestic consumption in Malaysia, limited production potential in Southeast Asia, low inventories in India, and the support of Indonesia's B50 blending policy. The bearish factors include good production performance, lower - than - expected exports, and expected inventory accumulation in China [5]. 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the boost of the "anti - involution" policy, the recovery of global manufacturing PMI, long - term demand expectations from infrastructure projects, and low domestic copper inventories. The bearish factors include potential price fluctuations due to macro events, weak US manufacturing data, seasonal demand weakness, and the potential decline in copper prices following the weakening of the commodity market sentiment [6]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Glass**: Among 8 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the stimulation of macro - policies, strong arbitrage demand, inventory reduction, and the approaching peak season. The bearish factors include speculative inventory accumulation, potential profit - taking, weak real - estate data, and potential supply increases [6]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the expectation of a Fed rate cut, increased risk - aversion demand, potential trade - related risks, policy uncertainty, and increased net long positions. The bearish factors include progress in trade negotiations, strong US economic data, the Fed's possible wait - and - see attitude, and a stronger US dollar [7]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include high molten iron production, macro - economic support, price increases in coke, and the recovery of coking plant production. The bearish factors include regulatory measures, the resumption of coal mine production, sufficient imported coal supply, and increased coking plant inventories [7].

其中，上半年我国有色金属工业完成固定资产投资比去年同期增长16.1%，在去年同期较高基数的基础 上，实现进一步增长。 陈学森表示，有色金属工业在稳增长及新兴产业扶持政策与市场需求双重驱动下，行业投资热情高涨， 民间资本活跃度提升，整体稳中向好，投资结构向产业链上游资源端与新能源等新兴应用领域倾斜，行 业正加速向高端化、绿色化转型。 记者29日从中国有色金属工业协会获悉，2025年上半年，我国规上有色工业增加值增速同比增长 7.6%，十种常用有色金属产量为4031.9万吨，同比增长2.9%。 "下半年，有色金属工业协会将继续推动有色金属各产业品种供给侧改革，借鉴电解铝设置产能天花板 以及实施严格产能置换的成功经验，加快推动落后产能有序退出，推动行业依法依规治理企业低价无序 竞争。"陈学森说。 中国有色金属工业协会副会长陈学森在当日召开的2025年上半年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会 上说，上半年，我国有色金属工业整体运行平稳，生产保持合理增长，投资保持两位数增长，规上企业 收入及利润比去年同期有所提高，主要资源进口量较去年增加。 （来源：新华社） ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the trading logic is driven by improved profit expectations rather than reality, with average weekly trading volume in the stock market rising from approximately 1.5 trillion to over 1.8 trillion since the end of June, although a marginal weakening was observed last week [1][12] - The "anti-involution" and "Yajiang" phenomena have boosted trading sentiment, enhancing risk appetite from both supply and demand sides, with the market preemptively trading on future profit improvements [1][12] - Economic pressures are expected to increase in the second half of the year, with the A-share market potentially exhibiting a seesaw effect in August and September, making monetary policy a key timing consideration for the third quarter [1][12] Group 2 - The first phase of "anti-involution" is ongoing, with a return to the essence of distribution and demand expected after the initial heat subsides. The first phase focuses on cyclical trading, influenced by supply-side reforms since 2016, which have altered market perceptions of excessive competition in related industries [2][13] - The essence of "anti-involution" is to break the vicious cycle of "low price → reduced quality → internal competition" based on improved production efficiency from supply-side reforms, aiming for sustainable development through fair distribution [2][13] - Industry allocation is categorized over time, starting with cyclical expansion (currently favoring specialized chemicals), followed by emerging industries (solar energy, automotive, lithium batteries), then social welfare (education, healthcare, childbirth), and finally consumption [2][13] Group 3 - The report highlights ongoing challenges such as deflation, weak profits, and poor demand, with the timing of monetary policy easing being crucial for sustaining the stock market in the second half of the year [3][14] - The GDP deflator index has been in negative territory for nine consecutive quarters, indicating deflationary pressure, although the second quarter GDP growth exceeded 5% due to a low base [3][14] - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share companies is only 44%, with net profit growth declining compared to Q1, reflecting that the profit side is still stabilizing at a low point [3][14] Group 4 - Key upcoming dates include August 12 for tariffs, August 22 for the last special treasury bond issuance of the year, and the political bureau meeting in September or October, which will influence policy timing based on economic data strength [4][20] - The report suggests that after taking profits in the steel sector, attention should shift to the first phase of "anti-involution" expansion, particularly in specialized chemicals [4][20] - The anticipated resolution of trade negotiations in the third quarter is expected to gradually materialize, with tariffs having a moderate impact on inflation, and profit expectations and risk appetite likely to continue driving risk assets upward [4][22] Group 5 - The report emphasizes that the resolution of trade negotiations will temporarily boost market risk appetite, but this focus will gradually fade in future trading [6][23] - The impact of tariffs on inflation at the consumer level is expected to be relatively limited, as businesses may absorb most of the tariff costs, with wholesale and retail profit margins declining [7][29] - Despite a significant nominal retail sales increase in June, actual retail sales growth remains weak, indicating that rising prices are suppressing consumption volume growth [7][30] Group 6 - The strategy recommends continuing to go long on US stocks and maintaining a strategic bullish outlook on the US dollar, while holding a bearish steep view on US bonds [8][36] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to act, as inflation and employment data do not present immediate risks, allowing for a wait-and-see approach [8][36] - The anticipated limited impact of tariffs on inflation and the significant political pressure on the Federal Reserve suggest that there may only be one rate cut throughout the year [8][36]

Core Insights - The Chinese non-ferrous metal industry is projected to achieve a year-on-year growth of 7.6% in added value in the first half of 2025, with a production volume of 40.319 million tons for ten common non-ferrous metals, reflecting a 2.9% increase compared to the previous year [1] Industry Performance - The overall operation of the non-ferrous metal industry in China remained stable in the first half of the year, with reasonable production growth and double-digit investment growth [1] - Fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metal industry increased by 16.1% compared to the same period last year, indicating further growth on a high base from the previous year [1] - Revenue and profits of regulated enterprises in the industry improved compared to the same period last year, with major resource imports also increasing [1] Investment Trends - The industry is experiencing heightened investment enthusiasm driven by stable growth and supportive policies for emerging industries, with increased activity from private capital [1] - Investment structure is shifting towards upstream resource sectors and emerging applications in new energy, indicating a transition towards high-end and green development [1] Future Outlook - The non-ferrous metal industry association plans to continue promoting supply-side reforms for various non-ferrous metal products in the second half of the year [1] - The association aims to accelerate the orderly exit of outdated production capacity by learning from successful experiences in setting production capacity ceilings and implementing strict capacity replacement [1] - There is a focus on regulating low-price and disorderly competition within the industry [1]

大全新能源(DQ.US)盘前涨4.62%，报24美元。摩根大通亚太区股票研究团队近日发布一份关于中国光 伏行业的报告，聚焦 "反内卷" 与供给侧改革背景下的市场动态。报告指出，光伏行业正迎来情绪的 "范式转变"：过去24个月，市场预期行业将持续估值下调；而现在，不少投资者认为行业将进入区间震 荡阶段。这一转变的关键信号是：高层已明确表达对产能过剩的担忧，尽管问题棘手，但中央及各部门 仍在不断尝试各类解决方案。这种政策层面的积极姿态，让市场对行业底部形成预期。对于投资者而 言，大全新能源凭借估值、财务与成本优势，成为把握行业转型机会的优选标的。(格隆汇) | DQ 大全新能源 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 22.940 ↓ -0.340 -1.46% | | 收盘价 07/28 15:59 美东 | | 24.000 ↑ 1.060 +4.62% | | 盘前价 07/29 04:47 美东 | | ニ 24 な ら Ｓ ５ 日 ♥ 自选 | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 23.200 | 开盘价 22.810 | 成交量 153.35万 | | 最低价 22.060 | 昨收价 ...

华源期货：回顾2015年供给侧改革 阶段一：预期驱动上涨 （2015年12月-2016年4月） 领涨品种：焦炭、焦煤、螺纹钢 核心逻辑： 供给收缩： 钢厂因长期亏损主动减产，社会库存降至历史低位； 需求预期强化： 上海、深圳等城市紧急出台地产限购政策、中央政治局会议释放"去杠杆"信号； 地产、基建政策刺激需求回暖，投机资金大举涌入； 螺纹钢期货价格从1618元/吨→2787元/吨（+72%），期现同步拉升。 阶段二：政策转向与深度回调 （2016年5月-6月） 下跌动因： 政策宽松见顶： 供给压力反扑： 钢厂复产潮爆发：4月粗钢日均产量431.4万吨（创历史新高）、供需矛盾逆转，库存快速累积； 价格崩塌： 螺纹钢期货10月合约从高点回落至1894元/吨（↓32%）、焦炭期货9月合约跌至811元/吨（↓45%）。 阶段三：改革深化与二次冲顶 （2016年7月-12月） 再上涨引擎： 去产能实质落地： 环保督察全面关停"地条钢"产能1.4亿吨、供应缺口急剧扩大，钢厂利润突破1000元/吨； 需求端强力支撑： 国开行基建项目集中投放，总投资额超2万亿元、宏观经济企稳，工业品需求共振上行； 政策敏感度差异： 螺纹钢受 ...