证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 躁动行情何时至——策略周聚焦 从量、价、高低切看，本轮指数调整或已到位 11/21 上证指数跌破 MA60，为近半年首次。历史数据显示牛市中跌破 MA60 前 10 日平均跌幅达 5%，跌破后 10 日仅跌 2%，且 30 日内多收复失地。当前 指数自跌破 MA60 仅微跌 1%，显示调整或已到位。量能方面，全 A 成交额与 换手率分别回落至 16962 亿元和 3.19%，低于历史跌破后 10 日均值（测算成 交额 17147 亿元、换手率 3.38%），显示缩量基本完成。此外，行业分化指标 （前 5-后 5 行业涨幅差）从 10/9 的 69pct 高位回落至 11/21 的 47pct，目前已 回升至 60pct，叠加通信、有色、电新等前期领跌板块反弹，高低切或已结束。 当下需重点关注万科债务展期或在短期内加剧地产风险 尽管万科展期暂避违约，但若融资环境恶化，或引发房企信用连锁反应。当下 核心风险在于可能触发金融机构对国有房企的系统性信任危机，影响已超个体 流动性困境，或重塑国企地产信用评估逻辑，并对宏观流动性构成潜在冲击。 本轮春季躁动的启动可能受内外关键事件所驱 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming spring market rally, driven by policy expectations, seasonal liquidity changes, and institutional repositioning [4][5][6] - The report identifies two significant shifts in the funding landscape that could enhance the securitization rate in China, with a focus on the transition from real estate to equity markets [6][7] - Investment strategies are suggested to focus on both technology and cyclical sectors, highlighting opportunities in underperforming growth industries such as military, media, AI applications, and power equipment [7][8] Industry Analysis Aerospace Industry - The report highlights the rapid development of China's commercial aerospace sector, with reusable rockets being a key focus area, supported by government initiatives [16][18] - The cost of launching satellites is a critical factor, with current prices for high and low orbit missions being significantly higher than those of international competitors like SpaceX [19] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" positions commercial aerospace as a strategic industry, aiming for a GDP contribution of 2% and a market value exceeding 7 trillion yuan by 2030 [20] Real Estate Sector - Recent data indicates a decline in new and second-hand housing transaction volumes, with ongoing government efforts to stabilize the real estate market [35][36] - The report suggests that policies aimed at urban renewal and housing quality improvement will support market stabilization, despite potential price fluctuations [36][37] - The issuance of credit bonds has decreased significantly, indicating a tightening in financing conditions within the sector [38] Financial Sector - The report notes a potential easing of leverage limits for brokerages, which could enhance return on equity (ROE) and support the overall financial sector [50][51] - Regulatory changes are expected to encourage innovation and support mergers and acquisitions, particularly for leading institutions [51] Electronics Industry - The electronics sector is experiencing a recovery, driven by new AI products and improvements in supply-demand dynamics within the panel industry [28][29] - The report highlights the successful IPO of a key player in the AI computing space, indicating strong market interest and investment potential [30] Food and Beverage Sector - The report discusses short-term price fluctuations in the liquor market, particularly for brands like Moutai, while emphasizing the long-term value of established brands [45][46] - New product launches in the health food segment are expected to drive growth for companies like Ximai, with a focus on traditional health concepts [46][48]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：晨明的策略深度思考 在上周周报中，我们讨论了《2026年春季躁动前瞻》，总结了基于历史规律的春季躁动几个关键结论： 春季躁动的强弱由何决定？什么情况下，春季躁动会提前？春季躁动对当年行情，有指示意义吗？春季 躁动期间，业绩增长不重要了吗？业绩雷落地后，是否会演绎"利空出尽"？ 本周我们进一步讨论：如果一轮产业主线已经确立（例如今年的AI产业链），那么相关行业在历史上 的跨年阶段、春季躁动时期，有何表现？ 一、我们再总结一下，岁末年初，指数及风格表现的历史规律： 11月：对机构最不利的一个月已经过去，11月份市场涨跌和基本面关联度最弱，主题活跃、轮动加快。 12月：过去20年，指数在12月涨跌各半，不过基本面定价的有效性较11月增强；风格方面，大盘优于小 盘，红利占优，金融板块涨幅居前，港股红利也迎来一年中日历效应最强的时段。 1月：指数在1月的上涨概率仅43%，小盘股上涨概率仅31%，主要受年报预告压制风险偏好影响。 春节前后、2月：一年当中风险偏好最高的区间，小盘股胜率超过90%，成长风格、电子/计算机/非银等 行业的平均涨幅最 ...

本周各家券商策略普遍提及岁末年初的历史行情表现情况，整体看好春季躁动提前。 广发策略刘晨明团队复盘了岁末年初的指数及风格历史表现情况，可总结为： 11月：对机构最不利的一个月已经过去，11月份市场涨跌和基本面关联度最弱，主题活跃、轮动加快。 12月：过去20年，指数在12月涨跌各半，不过基本面定价的有效性较11月增强；风格方面，大盘优于小盘，红利占优，金融板块涨幅居前，港 股红利也迎来一年中日历效应最强的时段。 1月：指数在1月的上涨概率仅43%，小盘股上涨概率仅31%，主要受年报预告压制风险偏好影响。 春节前后、2月：一年当中风险偏好最高的区间，小盘股胜率超过90%，成长风格、电子/计算机/非银等行业的平均涨幅最高。 今年来看，截止11月下旬，主线板块的调整时间、调整空间都已较为充分，近期已出现不同程度的反弹、或不再下跌，12月可纳入观察区间。26年的春季 躁动大概率不会缺席，做好积极布局准备（缺席的原因不外乎政策及外部冲击、流动性冲击、盈利下行，今年上述因素展望都较为温和）。 中银策略王君团队指出，"春躁"预热行情有望提前开启。下周起，美联储12月降息预期即将落地，当前市场对于12月降息的预期比较一致，需 ...

信达证券：12月或成为布局跨年行情的窗口期；国海证券：春季躁动中值得关注的仍然是成长风格；开 源证券：可提前布局春季躁动。 沪指本周累计上涨0.37%，深证成指涨1.26%，创业板指涨1.86%。A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么说： ①信达证券：12月或成为布局跨年行情的窗口期 开源证券指出，近期市场回调暂告一段落，可提前布局春季躁动，交易和配置上应注意：（1）科技与 周期双轮驱动，反内卷下周期机会凸显；（2）科技依然具备中长期占优的条件；（3）在近期的调整 中，我们认为部分超跌的成长行业的机会已经有所显现:军工、传媒（游戏）、AI应用、港股互联网、 电力设备等；而未来机构的核心科技蓝筹或也将跟随修复。 ④银河证券：A股市场中长期向好逻辑不改 银河证券指出，年末行情轮动较快，或仍以震荡结构为主。同时，A股市场中长期向好逻辑不改。监管 层下调险企股票投资风险因子，将进一步释放保险资金入市潜力，为市场注入更多增量流动性。 ⑤华宝证券：建议12月优选景气度向上的行业进行提前布局 华宝证券指出，由守转攻，积极布局高景气方向等风起。内外部波动风险均有所缓和，前期热门成长板 块多数出现了止跌企稳的现象，12月有望进一步整固企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The spring market rally may occur earlier this year due to various catalysts and the late timing of the Spring Festival, with a shift in market focus from large-cap value stocks to small-cap growth stocks, particularly in the AI application sector [1][8]. Group 1: Spring Rally Dynamics - Historical patterns indicate that spring rallies are more likely when the market is in a state of speculation, particularly when there are divergences in the DDM three-factor model [2][9]. - The current economic environment is characterized by moderate recovery, making a spring rally a high-probability event under speculative conditions [2][9]. - The late timing of the Spring Festival this year may lead to earlier market movements influenced by policy changes, economic data, and risk events, similar to trends observed in 2013 and 2018 [2][9]. Group 2: Five-Year Planning Impact - The release of five-year planning proposals historically correlates with stronger spring rallies, as seen in the aftermath of proposals in 2010, 2015, and 2020 [3][11]. - The current proposal emphasizes a shift towards growth styles following the initial dominance of value styles, reflecting a broader trend observed in previous five-year plans [3][11]. - Key sectors highlighted in the five-year plans, such as high-end manufacturing, energy construction, and new technologies, tend to perform well during spring rallies [4][12]. Group 3: Strategic Focus of the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan focuses on optimizing traditional industries, expanding emerging industries, and forward-looking layouts for future industries, particularly in AI and technology [5][13]. - The plan prioritizes the construction of a modern industrial system, high-level opening up, and improving people's livelihoods, which are expected to drive economic growth [6][13]. - Specific sectors such as quantum technology, biotechnology, and renewable energy are identified as future growth points, aligning with global trends in technology and innovation [6][14]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The upcoming spring rally is expected to favor sectors related to technology trends, such as AI applications and consumer electronics, which have shown signs of stagnation [7][14]. - High-demand sectors like semiconductors, energy storage, and wind power are anticipated to benefit from the rally [7][14]. - The market is advised to pay attention to low-positioned technology sectors, including robotics and innovative pharmaceuticals, which may have rotation potential [7][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reasons behind the seasonal market rally known as "spring excitement," emphasizing its historical significance and the factors contributing to its occurrence [1][2][4]. Group 1: Significance of Spring Rally - The spring rally serves as a market response to economic expectations and policy directions for the coming year, allowing investors to position themselves for the main themes of the year [1][8]. - It provides a favorable opportunity for institutions to adjust their portfolios, especially after year-end assessment pressures ease [1][8]. - The rally reflects seasonal liquidity improvements, driven by capital inflows around the Spring Festival and heightened policy expectations [1][8]. Group 2: Core Causes of Spring Rally - The three main causes of the spring rally include: 1. Concentrated release of policy expectations [1][8]. 2. Seasonal changes in liquidity, including a narrowing M1-M2 gap and strong credit issuance at the beginning of the year [1][8]. 3. An earnings vacuum period that allows institutions to adjust their holdings [1][8]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Rally Intensity - Historical analysis indicates that a strong spring rally typically requires one or a combination of the following conditions: 1. Short-term macroeconomic data (e.g., PMI, social financing, industrial value-added) significantly exceeding expectations, signaling economic stabilization or recovery [2][8]. 2. Overall corporate profitability entering an upward trajectory, with positive annual and quarterly earnings forecasts, free from major external disruptions [2][8]. 3. Clearly accommodative monetary policy, characterized by rising M1 growth, declining short-term interest rates, and enhanced credit pulses, providing ample liquidity support for high-elasticity assets [2][8]. Group 4: Changes in Funding Ecology - The current market sees two significant changes in funding ecology that may contribute to a stable increase in China's securitization rate: 1. The weakening of real estate investment attributes, with the equity market becoming a new primary venue for household assets [2][9]. 2. Indirect movement of household funds into the market, resulting in a continuous and stable influx of new capital [2][9]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, highlighting: 1. The dual driving forces of technology and cyclical opportunities, with cyclical prospects becoming more prominent amid anti-involution trends [4][11]. 2. Continued long-term advantages for technology sectors [4][11]. 3. Identification of opportunities in recently undervalued growth sectors such as military, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, and power equipment [4][11]. Group 6: Sector Allocation Recommendations - Recommendations for sector allocation include: 1. Internal recovery and high-low cuts within technology: military, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, batteries, and core AI hardware [5][12]. 2. Benefits from PPI improvement and broad anti-involution: solar energy, chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, electricity, and machinery [5][12]. 3. Long-term core holdings: stable dividends, gold, and optimized high-dividend stocks [5][12].

Group 1: Commonality of Spring Rally - The spring rally signifies the market's early response to economic expectations and policy directions for the coming year, allowing investors to position themselves for the main themes of the year [12][13] - The three core drivers of the spring rally include concentrated policy expectations, seasonal liquidity changes, and the performance vacuum during the earnings reporting period [16][20] - Strong spring rallies typically occur when macroeconomic data significantly exceeds expectations, overall corporate earnings enter an upward trajectory, and monetary policy is notably accommodative [21][20] Group 2: Changes in Funding Ecology Behind the Index Bull Market - The weakening of real estate investment attributes has led to the equity market becoming the new main stage for residents' assets, with a structural migration of funds from real estate to stocks and funds [23][24] - Residents' funds are indirectly entering the market, bringing stable incremental capital, with a shift from high-yield financial products to new categories such as fixed income+, secondary bond funds, and higher-risk bank wealth management products [25][26] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Technology and Cyclical Sectors - The market correction is seen as a temporary pause, with an emphasis on early positioning for the spring rally, focusing on both technology and cyclical sectors as dual drivers [29][30] - Specific sectors showing potential include military industry, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, and power equipment, with core technology blue chips expected to recover [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - The market is transitioning towards a "spring rally" with potential catalysts emerging, particularly as the year-end approaches and new policies are anticipated [2][13]. Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The strategy for 2026 emphasizes embracing "Galloping Assets" which are global competitive leaders, indicating a shift towards value reassessment [1][12]. - The A-share market has shown a recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 10% to above 3800 points [1][12]. - The current market phase is characterized by a period of observation and consolidation, with the potential for a spring rally to begin as early as December [2][13]. Group 2: Spring Rally Insights - The "spring rally" is expected to occur around the Lunar New Year, typically 1-2 weeks prior, with historical data suggesting a strong upward trend during this period [3][5]. - The likelihood of a spring rally varies based on market conditions: high during bottom-stimulus periods, moderate during continuation phases, and limited during downturns [4][6]. - Key indicators for the timing of the rally include significant new positive or negative developments, with potential early triggers in December [6][10]. Group 3: Sector and Style Preferences - The market favors smaller-cap indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000, which have shown a nearly 90% success rate with an average excess return of over 4% [6][19]. - Growth and technology sectors are highlighted as having an 80% success rate, also with an average excess return of over 4% [7][19]. - The top-performing industries are expected to be in the first tier: computer, communication, and electronics, with a second tier including machinery, chemicals, and military industries, all showing excess returns of over 3% [8][19]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Directions - The focus for long-term investments includes quality cyclical stocks benefiting from policy expectations in sectors like real estate, consumer goods, and resources [10][20]. - The strategy for the upcoming year includes a focus on "Galloping Assets" that align with China's economic transformation and global competition, particularly in technology, high-end manufacturing, consumption, and resource sectors [10][20].

2025 年 12 月 06 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 如果春季躁动提前，哪些方向值得关注？ 最近一年走势 相关报告 《流动性周报 12 月第 1 期：ETF 资金净流出，宏 观流动性边际收敛*赵阳》——2025-12-01 《策略周报：近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题* 赵阳，袁野》——2025-11-29 《流动性周报 11 月第 1 期：基金发行端回暖，杠 杆资金有所放缓*赵阳》——2025-11-24 阳》——2025-11-23 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 本篇报告主要讨论：1、每年 2 月是常规春季躁动区间，牛市年份是否会 提前？2、从市场环境上看，本轮的跨年春季行情有没有可能提前？3、 如果春季躁动提前，如何布局？ 核心要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 1、从历史的跨年行情上看，整体胜率最高的是 2 月份，即"春季躁 动"行情的常规时间区间。但如果去看过去几轮牛市中继的年份， 我们发现"春季躁动"行情往往会提前。 ...