在贸易企稳背景下，美国经济活动或呈现通胀先抬升，经济活动后走弱，这或使美联储2025年维持观 望。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在5月16日的报告中表示，中美贸易紧张局势近期虽有缓和， 但美国通 胀预计将从5月开始明显上升，全年通胀率可能升至3.0-3.5%，这将迫使美联储在2025年保持利率不 变。 美国财政谈判进展表明财政立场将基本保持不变，缺乏大规模刺激措施。 对投资者而言， 这意味着美国经济将进入低增长、高通胀的组合，资产定价需要适应"没有降息"的新现 实。 美联储2025年将按兵不动 商务部官方消息，当地时间5月10日至11日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头 人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸高层会谈。本次中美经贸高层会 谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的 反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。 大摩分析师表示， 尽管贸易冲突降级大大减少了贸易流量硬停止的风险，进而降低了经济近期衰退的 可能性。然而，13%的有效关税率仍然远高于年初的约2%，政策不确定性 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a combination of rising inflation and slowing economic activity, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in 2025 [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that inflation in the U.S. will rise significantly starting in May, with an annual inflation rate potentially reaching 3.0-3.5% by year-end [1][2]. - The recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions has reduced the risk of a hard stop in trade flows, but the effective tariff rate remains high at 13%, compared to about 2% at the beginning of the year [2][5]. - The forecast indicates that inflation will precede a slowdown in economic activity, with core PCE inflation expected to rise month-over-month by 0.3% in May and 0.5% in June, July, and August [2][5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Morgan Stanley maintains its outlook that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in 2025, as inflation is expected to deviate more from the Fed's 2.0% target than employment levels will from maximum employment [5]. - The Fed may begin to cut rates in March 2026, driven by a slowdown in economic activity and reduced labor demand, which could increase the unemployment rate [5]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy - The recent budget proposal passed by the House of Representatives is projected to increase the deficit by $3.8 trillion over the next decade, with significant contributions from the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) [6]. - The analysis suggests that the fiscal stance will remain largely unchanged, with potential for higher deficits if certain tax cuts are not allowed to expire as scheduled [6].

早些时候，美国总统特朗普发文称，"没有通胀，汽油、能源、食品杂货以及几乎所有其他商品的价格 都在下跌！美联储必须像欧洲和中国那样降低利率。'太迟先生'鲍威尔，为什么还在犹豫？这对正准备 繁荣发展的美国来说不公平。让一切顺其自然吧，这将是一件美好的事情！" 有"美联储传声筒"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos指出，美联储将没有理由因为4月的通胀数据而 改变其观望立场。这些数字在很大程度上符合密切跟踪劳工部衡量通胀方式的预测者的预期。如果不是 因为4月关税的广泛提高，通胀数据可能会使美联储有望很快恢复降息。但未来几个月成本的潜在上升 可能使美联储按兵不动，直到它能够更好地判断价格上涨是否是一次性的。 古尔斯比今年具有投票权，他表示："我们正在持续获得这些数据，至少表明情况还不错。我认为，在 有如此多的短期波动性时，期望企业或央行对一件事的长期影响仓促下结论是不现实的，这是一个非常 困难的环境。" 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周三表示，显示4月份消费者通胀温和的数据不一定反映出美国进口关税上升 的影响，美联储仍需要更多数据来辨别物价和经济的走向。 周二公布的数据显示，美国4月份CPI同比增速放缓至2.3%，是 ...

5月14日国内金价快报：国内各大金店金价整体变化不大，回收价格微涨。今日最高价金店依旧是六福黄金那几家，不涨不 跌，标价992元/克。上海中国黄金下跌13元/克，报价956元/克，再次成为最低价金店。今日金店黄金价差36元/克，价差继 续扩大。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 昨日现货黄金盘中反复震荡，最高涨至3265.03美元/盎司，最低也跌至3215.79美元/盎司。最终收报3249.52美元/盎司，涨幅 0.44%。今日金价再次出现下跌，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3232.71美元/盎司，跌幅0.52%。 昨日金价反弹主要还是晚间公布的美国4月CPI数据低于预期，市场普遍预期美联储可能在9月恢复降息，美元走弱，金价受 推上行。外加昨日金价跌到最低位后，出现的逢低买盘支撑。 目前据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示， 美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为91.8%，9月维持利率不变的概率为25.3%。 另据外媒消息，昨日以色列军方对哈马斯最高领导人穆罕默德·辛瓦尔发动了空袭，目前暂未证实哈马斯领导人是否死亡。 中东局势后续或又有加剧可能。而明日在土耳其还将迎来俄乌的又一次停火谈判，有需要的投资者可以关注下。 此外 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The MPOB March palm oil supply - demand report has a neutral impact, and palm oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [25]. - The USDA May supply - demand report has a bullish impact on soybeans [25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight quotes of various commodities are presented, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, with their closing prices and daily percentage changes [1]. - Currency quotes such as the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are also provided along with their percentage changes [2]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions are given [3]. - CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for soybean crushing in different regions are presented [5]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (May 17 - 21) for US soybean - producing states shows that precipitation is higher than normal, and temperatures vary [6]. 国际供需 - ITS indicates that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month, while SGS expects a 1.9% increase [10]. - USDA's 2025/2026 US soybean production, ending stocks, and yield forecasts are close to market expectations, and it maintains previous production forecasts for Argentina and Brazil [10]. - As of May 11, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 48% (higher than expected), and the emergence rate was 17% [13]. - A private exporter reported selling 120,000 tons of soybeans to Mexico [14]. - As of May 8, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 426,077 tons [14]. - As of May 10, the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 98.5% [15]. - Brazil's soybean exports in the first two weeks of May increased by 24% compared to the daily average in May last year [15]. - APK - Inform raised Ukraine's 2025 soybean production and 2025/26 export forecasts [16]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose, ending a four - day decline [17]. 国内供需 - On May 10, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 80% compared to the previous trading day [18]. - On May 10, the trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the national oil mill operating rate dropped to 54.80% [18]. - As of May 9, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 5.28% week - on - week, while that of soybean oil increased by 4.40% [18]. - The agricultural ministry adjusted China's 2024/2025 soybean import volume and estimated 2025/2026 import and consumption volumes [19]. - The average purchase price of pigs and the average ex - factory price of白条肉 decreased slightly from April 28 - May 4 [19]. - As of May 12, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" decreased, and prices of various agricultural products changed [20]. 04 Macro News 国际要闻 - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 88.4%, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts by December have decreased [22]. - The European Central Bank should stop rate cuts, according to an ECB official [22]. - Canada's national economic confidence index as of May 9 was 48.6 [22]. 国内要闻 - On May 10, the US dollar/CNY exchange rate decreased (CNY appreciated) [24]. - On May 10, the Chinese central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection [24]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, with significant tariff reductions [24]. 05 Market Impact Analysis - The MPOB March palm oil supply - demand report shows an increase in ending stocks, and palm oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile [25]. - The USDA May supply - demand report has a bullish impact on soybeans, with lower - than - expected ending stocks for 25/26 [25]. 06 Fund Flows - On May 12, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 9.886 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 1.867 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net inflow of 11.753 billion yuan in stock index futures [28]. 07 Arbitrage Tracking No information provided.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, highlighting his political motivations and the implications for the U.S. economy [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve has announced for the third consecutive time that it will not lower interest rates, leading to President Trump's complaints about dealing with Chairman Powell [1]. - Trump has previously urged the Fed to lower rates, suggesting that a 100 basis point cut could reduce annual interest expenses by $400 billion, alleviating debt pressure and supporting his political agenda [3]. Group 2: Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP shrank by 0.3% on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter of 2025, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2022, which exceeded market expectations [3]. - The decline in GDP was primarily attributed to a significant increase in imports and a reduction in government spending, reflecting the uncertainty caused by the government's trade policies [3]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - Trump's strategy appears to be aimed at shifting blame for economic issues onto Powell, framing them as failures of individual decision-making rather than structural problems [1]. - The ongoing tensions between Trump and Powell signal a growing rift in the U.S. political and financial system, raising questions about the credibility of the country's institutional checks and balances [7].

SHMET 网讯： 清明节后铜价因受美国"对等关税"政策的利空打击而快速探底，但随后不断传出缓和消息，且有来自供需面的提振，铜价逐步反弹回升，弥补前期缺口；4 月底后呈窄幅波动走势，上方压力依然明显。 宏观情绪缓和中略谨慎 现货端供应略偏紧 国内精铜库存降势未止，截止上周四，SMM铜社库降至12.01万吨，较五一节前降0.95万吨，实现连续10周周度去库，较年内高点及去年同期均明显回落。 上周，上期所铜总库存下降8602吨至8.07万吨，仓单数量下降9001吨至1.92万吨，而期货上05合约的持仓尚有3.7万手，虚实比较高。现货供给偏紧张，上周 升水快速冲高，同时期货上back结构较为突出，对铜价有较强的带动。LME铜库存也呈降势，注册仓单在11万吨左右，0-3现货升水也逐步抬升，至50美元/ 吨左右，关注可能的挤仓风险。COMEX铜库存快速增长至16万吨左右，注册仓单则徘徊于8.6万吨上下。 5月10日至11日，中美经贸代表于瑞士进行会谈，会后中方代表表示，此次会谈达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展，关注后续声明，可能会对有色市场情绪 有一定提振。此前，美英已就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，未掀起大的波澜，市场更多 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年05月12日16时49分 一、黄金 报告导读： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主力合约收盘价 | 美元/盎司 | 3329.10 | 18.70 | 0.56% | 81.70 | 2.52% | | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 3324.55 | -27.75 | -0.83% | 74.85 | 2.30% | | 国内价格 | 沪金主力收盘价（上期所） | 元/克 | 772.28 | -16.14 | -2.05% | -8.02 | -1.03% | | | 黄金T+D收盘价（上金所） | 元/克 | 758.15 | -27.15 | -3.46% | -21.35 | -2.74% | | 基差与价差、比价 | 沪金主力-伦敦金 | 元/克 | -17.59 | -31.51 | -226% | -39.46 | -180% | | | 沪金主力 ...

5月12日国内金价快报：国内各大金店金价继续下跌，老庙黄金金价已触及1000元/克的关口，其他金店金价也有望跌下千 元。周六福等金店金价跌了14元/克，最新标价1008元/克，仍是最高价金店。菜百金价下跌7元/克，报价988元/克，取代上 海中国黄金成为最低价金店。今日金店黄金价差20元/克，价差又小了点。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年5月12日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1000 | 元/克 | 19 | 跌 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 14 | 脱 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 14 | 联 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 14 | 跌 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 14 | 缺 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1002 | 元/克 | 20 | 跌 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 14 | 跌 | | 周 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk sentiment has continued to improve due to the progress in Sino-US trade negotiations and the overall easing trend of geopolitical conflicts. However, the substantial impact on the US economy from tariff negotiations requires continuous observation. In the short term, there may be some adjustment space for the premium of precious metals previously brought by safe-haven demand. [2][4] - The Sino-US trade talks have achieved substantial progress, but the copper market still faces challenges such as a decline in processing fees and weakening downstream demand. Copper prices are expected to remain at a high level. [6][9][10] - Alumina prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. Considering the expected oversupply situation, shorting after a price rebound is recommended. [16][18][19] - The Sino-US trade talks' progress may affect aluminum consumption. Although the aluminum inventory is expected to decline in the short term, the overall annual oversupply pressure remains. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range. [21][23][24] - Zinc prices may face downward pressure due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season, the inflow of imported refined zinc, and the gradual accumulation of social inventory. [27][29][30] - Lead prices are expected to remain volatile under the background of the continuous expansion of secondary lead production cuts and the off-season of battery replacement. [33] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range. The upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to changes in the macro situation. [36][39][40] - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, following the trends of nickel prices and the macro sentiment. [42][43] - Industrial silicon supply is expected to increase while demand decreases in May, leading to an oversupply situation. Shorting after a price rebound is recommended. [48][49] - Polysilicon prices are expected to rise in the short term due to the strong demand from some crystal pulling factories and the relatively small number of delivery products. A long position in the PS2506 contract and a positive spread strategy of going long on PS2506 and short on PS2507 are recommended. [52][53] - Lithium carbonate prices may rebound due to the easing of Sino-US tariffs, but the overall oversupply situation remains. Holding short positions is recommended. [58][59] - Tin prices are mainly affected by macro factors. In the short term, they are expected to adjust in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the supply situation of tin mines. [64][65] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold initially declined below $3,280 and then rebounded, closing up 0.63% at $3,326.46 per ounce on Friday. However, it gapped down this morning due to the substantial progress in Sino-US economic and trade talks over the weekend. Spot silver closed up 0.84% at $32.72 per ounce on Friday. Affected by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.33% at 790.74 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 0.88% at 8,221 yuan per kilogram. [2] - The US dollar index gave back part of the previous day's gains, closing down 0.3% at 100.339. [2] - The yield of the 10-year US Treasury note fluctuated within a narrow range, closing at 4.378%. [2] - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar traded sideways, finally closing up 0.07% at 7.2399. [2] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks in Switzerland have achieved substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism and will release a joint statement on May 12. Trump announced that he will release important content and plans to sign an executive order to reduce drug prices by 30%-80%. [2] - Federal Reserve officials have different views on interest rate policies. The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate in June with a probability of 82.7% and cut the interest rate by 25 basis points with a probability of 17.3%. In July, the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 40.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 50.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 8.7%. [2] - Geopolitical conflicts: There were sporadic conflicts between India and Pakistan, but the situation has eased. Putin proposed to restart direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on the 15th, and Zelensky said he would wait for Putin in Turkey. The Ukrainian foreign minister said that Ukraine is ready to unconditionally cease fire for at least 30 days. [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. [4] Copper Market Review - The price of LME copper closed at $9,439 on Friday, down $35.5 or 0.37%. [6] - LME inventory increased by 2,500 tons to 191,700 tons on Friday, and COMEX inventory increased by 1,533 short tons to 160,250 short tons. [6] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks from May 10 to 11 in Geneva achieved substantial progress, and a joint statement will be released on May 12. [6] - In April 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and the average from January to April decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year. [6][8] - In April 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 438,000 tons, the same as in April 2024. From January to April, the cumulative import was 1.742 million tons, a decrease of 3.9% compared with the same period in 2024. [8] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Due to the substantial progress in Sino-US negotiations, copper prices are expected to remain at a high level. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. [10] Alumina Market Review - The night session of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 14 yuan per ton to 2,810 yuan per ton. [12] - The spot prices of alumina in various regions increased to varying degrees. [12] Important Information - As of Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons, with an operating capacity of 86.75 million tons, a decrease of 550,000 tons compared with before the holiday, and an operating rate of 78.2%. In April 2025, the weighted average full cost of alumina was 3,211 yuan per ton, a decrease of 81 yuan per ton month-on-month and an increase of 462 yuan per ton year-on-year. The alumina industry had an average loss of 311 yuan per ton, and the loss increased by 266 yuan per ton month-on-month. [13][14] - The third 1-million-ton production line of a large alumina enterprise in Shandong was put into operation in mid-April, and it is expected to produce finished products by the end of the month. The second 1.6-million-ton production line of a large alumina plant in Hebei will produce finished products in late May, and the third 1.6-million-ton production line will be put into operation in early June. [14] - After the May Day holiday, the bauxite market experienced a significant price adjustment. The price of Guinea's mainstream 45/3 ore was reduced to $75 per dry ton (CIF), and the price of bulk ore dropped to $76 per dry ton. [14] - Guinea's government has initiated procedures to revoke the mining license of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) in the country. [14] - Guinea's transitional president signed two executive orders on May 9, terminating the mining concessions of two foreign mining companies in the country. [15] - On May 9, 2,000 tons of spot alumina were traded in Shandong at an ex-factory price of 2,900 yuan per ton. [15] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, alumina prices are expected to fluctuate. If the oversupply situation remains unchanged after a price rebound, shorting is recommended. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [19] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night session of the Shanghai aluminum 2506 contract increased by 70 yuan per ton to 19,655 yuan per ton. [21] - On May 9, the spot prices of A00 aluminum ingots in East China, South China, and Central China were 19,610 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan), 19,550 yuan per ton (down 30 yuan), and 19,600 yuan per ton (up 10 yuan), respectively. [21] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks from May 10 to 11 in Geneva achieved substantial progress, and a joint statement will be released on May 12. [21] - In April 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month. The PPI decreased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. [22] - On May 9, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major markets decreased by 15,000 tons compared with the previous trading day. [22] - In April 2025, China exported 518,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products. From January to April, the cumulative export was 1.883 million tons, a decrease of 5.7% compared with the same period last year. [22] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: With the overall marginal easing of tariff expectations, attention should be paid to the results of the Sino-US talks. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range. - Arbitrage: Considering the strong current situation and weak future expectations, a positive spread strategy of going long on the 06 contract and short on the 09 contract is recommended. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [24] Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc market rose 0.66% to $2,655.5 per ton on Friday night. The Shanghai zinc 2506 contract rose 0.04% to 22,260 yuan per ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai zinc index decreased by 1,863 lots to 228,300 lots. [26] - In the Shanghai spot market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,825 and 22,955 yuan per ton. Due to the arrival of long-term contracts and the inflow of imported zinc, the spot premium was lowered, but the downstream remained on the sidelines, and the spot trading volume did not improve. [26] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. [26] - In April 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, the same as the previous month, and the PPI's year-on-year decline widened to 2.7%. [26] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Affected by the macro situation, zinc prices may rebound. However, under the bearish fundamental situation, shorting on rallies is still recommended. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [30] Lead Market Review - The LME lead market rose 1.69% to $1,985.5 per ton on Friday night. The Shanghai lead 2506 contract rose 0.54% to 16,880 yuan per ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai lead index decreased by 1,601 lots to 69,600 lots. [32] - In the spot market, the price of SMM1 lead remained unchanged from the previous trading day. The offers of refineries in Henan, Hunan, and Guangdong were at a discount to the SMM1 lead price. As the lead price stabilized, holders increased the discount to sell, and downstream enterprises purchased on dips as needed. The regional trading volume in the spot market improved relatively. [32] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. [33] - In April 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, the same as the previous month, and the PPI's year-on-year decline widened to 2.7%. [33] - An intermediate and large-scale secondary lead refinery in East China stopped production due to raw material shortages and loss pressure, affecting the output by about 200 tons per day. A small secondary lead refinery in East China postponed its restart plan to mid-to-late May due to the poor market trend. [33] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Lead prices are expected to remain volatile. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [33] Nickel Market Review - On Friday, the LME nickel price rose by $275 to $15,850 per ton, the LME nickel inventory decreased by 642 tons to 197,670 tons, and the LME nickel 0-3 spread was -$183.02 per ton. The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2506 rose by 2,540 yuan to 126,200 yuan per ton, and the open interest of the index increased by 536 lots. [35] - The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan to 2,300 yuan per ton, the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged at 150 yuan per ton, and the premium of electrolytic nickel increased by 150 yuan to 150 yuan per ton. [35] Important Information - Talon Metals discovered a high-grade nickel sample with a nickel content of 12.65% near Tamarack, Minnesota, along with copper, gold, and platinum group metals, marking a significant breakthrough in its exploration for supplying battery-grade nickel to Tesla. [35] - PT QMB New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. restarted, with a current capacity utilization rate of about 70% - 80%. [35] - Sino-US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. [36] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range. Attention should be paid to changes in the macro sentiment. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Consider a double-selling strategy within the range. [40] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2506 contract rose by 55 yuan to 12,775 yuan per ton, and the open interest of the index decreased by 1,721 lots. [42] - In the spot market, the price of cold-rolled stainless steel was between 12,650 and 12,900 yuan per ton, and the price of hot-rolled stainless steel was between 12,500 and 12,600 yuan per ton. [42] Important Information - In April 2025, the total export of stainless steel sheets and finished products from Taiwan, China was 74,500 tons, a decrease of 12.1% month-on-month. [42] - On May 8, Mexico launched an anti-dumping sunset review investigation on stainless steel sinks (weighing no more than 8 kg)原产于 China. [42] - In May, the planned production volume of domestic stainless steel crude steel was 3.619 million tons, a decrease of 78,900 tons or 2.13% month-on-month and an increase of 74,700 tons or 2.11% year-on-year. [42] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short-term trading should be cautious and wait for opportunities. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [43] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Last week, the main contract of the industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly, closing at 8,205 yuan per ton. [46] - The spot prices of some grades of industrial silicon continued to decline. Due to weak downstream demand and only rigid procurement, manufacturers were forced to lower the spot prices after the decline in the futures prices. [46] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. [47] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short after a price rebound, and exit the short position after large-scale production cuts by manufacturers. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. - Arbitrage: Consider a reverse spread strategy for Si2511 and Si2512. [49] Polysilicon Market Review - Last