1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market risk preference may be suppressed in the short - term due to Trump's statement on tariff hikes, causing A - shares to decline, but the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound, with an upward long - term trend [3]. - The bond market warms up due to stock market adjustments and loose liquidity, and short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3]. - Gold has large market fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October, and silver maintains a strong trend [3]. - Steel products' hot - rolled coils have accumulated inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery; the iron ore market has weakened [3]. - The price of crude oil is under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report; most chemical products have weak supply - demand expectations [3]. - Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and palm oil are affected by various factors and show different trends, with some under pressure and some in a weak pattern [3]. - Special commodities like soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation; industrial silicon prices are weakly fluctuating [3]. - New energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different trends, with polysilicon having a late - session rebound and lithium carbonate having a tight - balance fundamental situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Index Futures - The stock index rises and then falls, with a style switch on the market. Due to the tariff conflict, the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound in the short - term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Conservative investors can wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at low prices [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market adjustment and loose liquidity promote the bond market to warm up. Short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. For example, T2512 may fluctuate between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. One can choose to buy lightly above 910 yuan and set stop - loss and take - profit. Silver maintains a strong trend above 50 dollars [3]. Shipping Index (European Line) - From the perspective of macro - uncertainty factors, it is recommended to be cautious and wait and see [3]. Black Steel - Hot - rolled coils have accumulated a lot of inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery. The profit of the coil - screw spread converges [3]. Iron Ore - Supply - side disturbances weaken, shipments decline, arrivals increase, and the iron ore market weakens. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, with a reference range of 750 - 830 [3]. Coking Coal - After the holiday, coal prices in coal - producing areas are weak, downstream replenishment demand weakens, and there are concerns about reduced Mongolian coal supply. It is recommended to go long on JM2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1080 - 1200 [3]. Coke - The first round of price increases was implemented before the holiday, and there is not much room for further increases. It is recommended to go long on J2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700 [3]. Non - ferrous - Copper prices fluctuate, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices. Aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. all have corresponding price reference ranges and operation suggestions [3]. - Tin can be bought when the macro - sentiment drops. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report suppress oil prices. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on the single side, with support levels for different benchmarks provided [3]. Chemical Products - Most chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. have weak supply - demand expectations, and corresponding operation suggestions such as short - selling on rebounds and month - spread reverse arbitrage are given [3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and dates are affected by various factors and show different trends and price ranges, with corresponding operation suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - Soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation, and it is recommended to hold short positions. Rubber can be observed during the peak - production period, and industrial silicon prices fluctuate within a range [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon rebounds in the late session, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Lithium carbonate has a tight - balance fundamental situation, with a price - center reference range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Sino-US trade conflict has dragged down the chemical sector as a whole. For pure benzene, the port de-stocking rate has slowed down, indicating that downstream procurement has not continued after the holiday. The recovery rate of CPL and aniline operations may be limited, and there is still inventory pressure on PA6 & nylon filament and MDI. The concentrated maintenance of styrene in late October has dragged down the demand for pure benzene. For styrene, port inventory pressure persists, downstream pick-up performance remains average, and port basis has weakened slightly. EPS seasonal low operating rate awaits recovery, PS operating rate continues to decline, and the pressure on PS finished product inventory has increased after the holiday. ABS operating rate has rebounded from a low level, but inventory pressure has further increased. Supply is affected by ongoing maintenance of some plants and new device launches, and overseas demand remains weak, increasing the import pressure on China [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene main contract basis is 33 yuan/ton (-5), and the spot - M2 spread is 40 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton). EB main contract basis is 41 yuan/ton (+26 yuan/ton) [1]. II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 136 dollars/ton (+7 dollars/ton), FOB Korea processing fee is 123 dollars/ton (+7 dollars/ton), and the US - Korea spread is 75.5 dollars/ton (+3.0 dollars/ton). Styrene non - integrated production profit is - 546 yuan/ton (-47 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 9.00 tons (-0.10 tons), and the operating rate is not mentioned. Styrene East China port inventory is 196,500 tons (-5,400 tons), East China commercial inventory is 121,500 tons (+5,100 tons), and the operating rate is 73.6% (+2.4%) [1]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 331 yuan/ton (+119 yuan/ton), operating rate is 40.74% (-2.37%); PS production profit is - 119 yuan/ton (+69 yuan/ton), operating rate is 54.60% (-1.70%); ABS production profit is - 15 yuan/ton (-24 yuan/ton), operating rate is 72.50% (+1.50%) [2]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 1830 yuan/ton (+90), operating rate is 96.00% (+0.00%); Phenol - acetone production profit is - 526 yuan/ton (+92), operating rate is 78.00% (-1.00%); Aniline production profit is 478 yuan/ton (+140), operating rate is 77.16% (+1.12%); Adipic acid production profit is - 1292 yuan/ton (+81), operating rate is 66.90% (+4.00%) [1]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - hedge BZ and EB on rallies. - Basis and Inter - Period: Do reverse spreads on the EB2511 - EB2512 spread on rallies. - Cross - Variety: No strategy [4].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Performance - On October 14, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures oscillated lower, hit new lows since September 15 and September 11 respectively, then rebounded significantly, recovering the day's losses and rising. The closing prices of J2601 and JM2601 were 1654.5 yuan/ton and 1153.5 yuan/ton, with increases of 0.36% and 0.74% respectively. The trading volumes were 22,849 lots and 968,042 lots, and the open interests were 42,439 lots and 607,030 lots, with increases of 485 lots and 17,621 lots respectively. The capital inflows were 0.26 billion yuan and 2.97 billion yuan [5]. - The daily KDJ indicators of the coke and coking coal 2601 contracts showed divergent trends, with the J and K values turning up and the D value continuing to decline. The daily MACD green bars of both contracts narrowed slightly [8]. Group 3: Spot Market - On October 14, the flat - price indices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port were 1520 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1495 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, while there was no change in other regions [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - News: After China's counter - measures, the US authorities threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China but later lowered the expectation and tone of the Sino - US trade conflict. There were unconfirmed reports about the procurement of imported iron ore by Sinomine Resource Group [10]. - Fundamentals - Coke: Since late May, the coke output of independent coking plants has decreased slightly for 4 consecutive weeks. The coke output of steel mills has increased significantly from the low since August 2023 in early September, but the growth rate has narrowed. Port coke inventory has oscillated lower to a new low since mid - July and then rebounded slightly. Steel mill inventory has increased for 6 consecutive weeks, reached a new high since late May, and then started to destock. Coking plant inventory has rebounded from a new low since late October last year. Tonnage coke profit has turned profitable after 3 consecutive weeks of losses, and the first round of spot price increase for coke was implemented on October 1 [10]. - Fundamentals - Coking Coal: From January to August, the year - on - year decline in China's coal and lignite imports narrowed by 0.8 percentage points to - 12.2%, and the year - on - year decline in coking coal imports narrowed slightly to - 7.6%. In the past 16 weeks, the inventories of refined coal and raw coal in mines have dropped significantly, with overall declines of 60.8% and 36.4% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has dropped significantly from a new high since the end of January, steel mill inventory has dropped for 2 consecutive weeks to a new low since late June, and port inventory has rebounded to the level of late July. After coking plants completed restocking and then significantly destocked, the prices of major coking coal spot markets continued to be strong [11]. - Overall: Geopolitical factors have increased market volatility. The boost from the first - round increase in coke spot prices is weakening, and the strong coking coal spot market cannot currently drive the coking coal futures to strengthen again. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US relationship, the supply change in the iron ore spot market, the path of steel profit recovery, and the re - inflation rhythm differences among precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and energy and chemical commodities caused by macro - asset allocation [11]. Group 5: Industry News - The relevant departments will investigate the impact of the US 301 investigation on China's shipping and shipbuilding industries and related supply chains and may introduce corresponding measures [12]. - In early October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 2032 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 203.2 million tons, a 7.5% increase from the previous period; 1875 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 187.5 million tons, a 3.2% increase; and 1961 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 196.1 million tons, an 8.5% decrease. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1588 million tons, a 8.2% increase from the previous ten - day period [12][13]. - From January to September, the production and sales of automobiles were 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 12.9%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 11 million, with year - on - year increases of over 30%, and the new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 46.1% of the total new - vehicle sales [13]. - Baotailong's stock price had abnormal fluctuations. The company's coke oven maintenance was completed, and its affiliated coal mine was approved as a formal mine, with normal production and operation activities [13]. - The freight volume of ST Guangwu's Hongnao Railway in September was 2.6349 million tons, a 45.61% year - on - year increase [13]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to the US tariff increase, stating that China is ready to fight and also open to talks, and urged the US to correct its wrong actions [13]. - Huaneng Hydropower's power generation in the first three quarters of 2025 was 96.266 billion kWh, a 11.90% year - on - year increase, and the on - grid electricity was 95.49 billion kWh, a 12.02% year - on - year increase [13]. - The world's first China - Europe Arctic container express line was successfully opened on October 13, which will bring significant time and cost advantages to China - Europe trade [13][14]. - The World Steel Association predicted that the global steel demand in 2025 will be flat at about 1.75 billion tons compared with 2024, and will rebound moderately by 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons in 2026 [14]. - In September 2025, 12 large state - owned ports in India imported 15.587 million tons of coal, a 14.08% year - on - year and 12.07% month - on - month increase, reaching a three - month high [14]. - Rio Tinto's equity iron ore production in the third quarter of 2025 was 74.168 million tons, a 1% year - on - year and 1% quarter - on - quarter increase; the shipment volume was 73.804 million tons, a 1% year - on - year decrease and 4% quarter - on - quarter increase [14]. - On October 14, the German electricity price soared to the highest level since February, reaching 156.14 euros per MWh [14]. - OPEC maintained its global economic growth forecast at 3% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. The average OPEC+ crude oil production in September 2025 was 43.05 million barrels per day, an increase of 630,000 barrels per day from August. It is expected that the global oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [14]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the production and capacity utilization rates of coking plants and steel mills, national daily average hot metal production, coke and coking coal inventories in ports, steel mills, and coking plants, tonnage coke profit of independent coking plants, production and inventory of sample mines, and the basis differences between Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and the January contract, and Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal and the January contract [17][19][22][28][29]

Core Insights - Wall Street legend and founder of Tudor Investment, Paul Tudor Jones, suggests that if major tech companies report positive earnings by the end of October and the US-China trade conflict is resolved, there is potential for a significant rally in the Nasdaq over the last two months of the year [1] - The Nasdaq has already risen approximately 17% this year, driven by the AI boom [1] - Jones anticipates that the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate will be around 2.5% by this time next year [1]

Macroeconomic and Strategy Research - In September 2025, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 6.6%, while imports rose by 7.4%, also surpassing expectations of 1.8% [3][4] - The trade surplus for September was $90.447 billion, down from $102.329 billion in the previous month [3] - The export growth was primarily driven by low base effects from the previous year, with significant increases in exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America, while exports to the US continued to decline by 27.0% [3] - The import growth was led by electromechanical and high-tech products, contributing over 8.5 percentage points to the overall growth [4] - Future export growth is expected to moderate, with a projected year-on-year growth of 5.6% for the entire year, despite potential pressures from high base effects in the fourth quarter [4] Fixed Income Research - In September 2025, the overall issuance guidance rates for credit bonds increased by 0 to 10 basis points, with a rise in the issuance scale of corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds [5][7] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased, with a notable rise in the trading volume in the secondary market [7] - The credit spread showed divergence, with short-end spreads narrowing and mid-to-long-end spreads widening, indicating a potential for better value in high-grade long bonds [7] - The report suggests a positive outlook for credit bonds, with a recommendation to increase allocations during market adjustments [7] Fund Research - The equity market saw most major indices rise, with the largest increase in the CSI 500, which rose by 2.17% [10] - In the public fund market, the total scale of ETFs reached a historical high, with significant net inflows of 77.502 billion yuan [11] - The average return for equity funds was 4.89%, while fixed income plus funds saw a modest increase of 0.45% [11] - The report indicates a shift in active equity fund positions, with increased allocations to non-bank financials and power equipment [11] Company Research - The company reported a revenue of 3.86 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.05%, with a net profit of 333 million yuan, up 18.21% [13][14] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.428 billion yuan, a 15.86% increase year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 6.64% due to high base effects from the previous year [14] - The company has focused on enhancing its brand presence and product innovation, with successful launches in both domestic and international markets [16] - The company is projected to have an EPS of 1.53 yuan, 1.82 yuan, and 2.20 yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating due to its leading position in the pet food industry [16] Industry Research - The metal industry is experiencing a lack of momentum in September, with expectations for demand recovery in October, particularly in steel and copper [18][19] - Steel demand is anticipated to rebound due to increased outdoor construction activities, while copper prices may remain high due to supply constraints [19][21] - The aluminum sector is expected to maintain profitability despite overcapacity, with potential price support from improved demand [19] - The report highlights the strategic importance of rare earths, with export controls potentially impacting prices and demand [20][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights China's countermeasures against the U.S. unilateral actions, particularly focusing on the imposition of port fees on U.S. vessels and sanctions against Hanwha Ocean's subsidiaries [1][10][11] - On October 14, China began charging port fees on U.S. vessels, coinciding with the enforcement of U.S. port fees on Chinese shipbuilding [1][10] - China announced sanctions against five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean, prohibiting any transactions or cooperation with Chinese organizations or individuals [1][4][11] Group 2 - Hanwha Ocean is significantly involved in U.S. shipbuilding efforts, having acquired the Philadelphia shipyard for $100 million, which is seen as a key project in the U.S. plan to revitalize its shipbuilding industry [6][7] - The sanctions against Hanwha Ocean are viewed as a targeted strike against a specific company, contrasting with the broader impact of the port fee measures [4][5][9] - Hanwha Ocean's role in supporting U.S. government investigations into China's maritime and shipbuilding sectors has been cited as a reason for the sanctions, indicating a direct link between the company's actions and the geopolitical tensions [3][9][11] Group 3 - The article notes that South Korea's shipbuilding industry holds a 22% share of the global market, with Hanwha Ocean's sanctions potentially impacting this sector significantly [4][10] - The U.S. has been struggling with a declining shipbuilding industry, currently holding less than 1% of the global commercial shipbuilding market, compared to China's approximately 60% [4][10] - The sanctions against Hanwha Ocean are seen as a dual strategy by China, aiming to undermine U.S. shipbuilding initiatives while also targeting the use of Chinese rare earth elements in defense products [9][10]

纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差38元/吨（+32）。纯苯港口库存9.00万吨（-0.10万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费129美元/吨（+4 美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费116美元/吨（+3美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差72.5美元/吨（-4.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货 -M2价差70元/吨（+20元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1920元/吨（-65），酚酮生产利润-618元/吨（-312），苯胺生产利润478元/吨（+140）， 己二酸生产利润-1373元/吨（-50）。己内酰胺开工率96.00%（+0.00%），苯酚开工率78.00%（-1.00%），苯胺开工率 77.16%（+1.12%），己二酸开工率66.90%（+4.00%）。 纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-10-14 苯乙烯港口库存压力持续 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差15元/吨（-17元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-499元/吨（-15元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存196500吨（-5400吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存121500吨（+5100吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率73.6%（+2 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **China-U.S. trade conflict** and its implications for the **global economy** and **financial markets**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **China's Response to U.S. Tariffs**: China has taken strong retaliatory measures, including restricting rare earth exports and imposing fees on U.S. vessels, marking a shift from passive defense to active offense in trade negotiations [1][2][3] 2. **U.S. Tariff Increase**: The U.S. has announced a 100% tariff increase on Chinese goods, with China likely to respond with equivalent countermeasures [2][5] 3. **Market Sentiment**: Current market participants exhibit a more stable and rational mindset compared to April, with cautious optimism regarding the U.S.-China trade situation [6][7] 4. **Investment Risks**: Despite a more stable sentiment, there is a heightened risk of unexpected declines in the market, especially if the situation deteriorates [7][8] 5. **Short-term Market Outlook**: In the next 1-2 weeks, the stock market is advised against aggressive buying or shorting due to potential adjustment pressures, while the commodity market remains under bearish influence from the trade conflict [9][12] 6. **Global Economic Impact**: The direct impact of the trade conflict on the global economy and Chinese exports is less severe than in April, with new trade flows stabilizing [10][17] 7. **Long-term Strategy**: China's proactive measures are seen as beneficial for enhancing risk tolerance and promoting long-term stability, suggesting a balanced state in the U.S.-China relationship [13][17] 8. **Gold's Performance**: Gold continues to perform well amid global monetary easing and geopolitical tensions, supported by central bank purchases, making it a crucial part of investment portfolios [15][16] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Positioning**: The stock market is currently at a high position, facing adjustment pressures, but the presence of many uninvested participants may limit the extent of declines [11] 2. **Investor Patience**: Investors are encouraged to remain patient and wait for better buying opportunities rather than rushing into the market [14][18] 3. **Potential for Compromise**: The expectation is that both sides will test each other before reaching a compromise, indicating a complex negotiation landscape ahead [5][10]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Non-ferrous Metals - Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys [1] Report Date - October 13, 2025 [2] Research Team - Hongyuan Futures Metal Research Team, including Wang Wenhu, Dong Xiaoni, and Zhang Lei [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Concerns about potential additional tariffs between China and the US may put pressure on aluminum prices. Different segments of the aluminum industry (alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloys) face various supply - demand situations and price trends. Due to factors such as Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and Sino - US trade conflicts, prices in these segments are expected to fluctuate widely. Appropriate investment strategies are proposed for each segment [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Alumina - **Supply - side factors**: The commissioning of domestic and overseas projects may increase alumina production in October. For example, the first - phase 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen started producing 440,000 tons/year of aluminum concentrate in June, and the Yangjiagou bauxite mine of Lvliang Mining (annual capacity of 600,000 tons) was put into operation at the end of August. Overseas, the third - phase 1,000,000 - ton alumina project of Nanshan Aluminum in Indonesia started trial production in early May and is expected to reach full production in 2025 [3] - **Price and investment strategy**: Domestic alumina production is in the red, and the supply - demand outlook is loose, making the price likely to fall rather than rise. Investors are advised to short at high prices, paying attention to support levels around 2,600 - 2,800 and resistance levels around 3,300 - 3,600 [3] 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production may increase in October. Projects like the second - phase energy - saving renovation project of Guangxi Baise Guangtou Yinhai's 50,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum capacity started to restart, and overseas projects such as Huatong Cable's 120,000 - ton project in Angola may increase imports [4] - **Demand - side factors**: The capacity utilization rate of downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased last week, except for the possible increase in the production of remelted rods (aluminum poles) in October [4] - **Price and investment strategy**: With the rising expectation of Fed's interest - rate cut and the increasing proportion of molten aluminum production, but concerns about Sino - US trade conflicts, the Shanghai aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to go long at low prices, paying attention to support and resistance levels for both Shanghai and London aluminum [5] 3.3 Aluminum Alloys - **Supply - side factors**: The production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys may decrease in October. Although the production of domestic scrap aluminum may increase, the import may decrease due to overseas competition and geopolitical issues. Projects like Yongchun Qingyuan Metal's and Guizhou Guangyu Aluminum's are put into production, but overall production is expected to decline [6] - **Price and investment strategy**: Given the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the tight supply - demand outlook for domestic scrap aluminum, but concerns about Sino - US trade conflicts, the aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to go long at low prices or short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys lightly, paying attention to relevant support and resistance levels [6]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to experience a phase of stabilization and gradual recovery in the fourth quarter, with a focus on narrowing interest rate spreads and leveraging strategies remaining favorable [1][6][7]. Market Performance - On October 13, government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.37% to 114.440, the 10-year main contract up by 0.10% to 108.065, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.03% to 105.685 [2]. - In the interbank market, major interest rate bond yields rebounded after a significant decline, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 1.2 basis points to 1.755% [2]. Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 137.8 billion yuan through a 7-day reverse repo operation, maintaining a stable and slightly loose liquidity environment [5]. - The Shibor rates showed a mixed trend, with the overnight rate unchanged at 1.314% and the 7-day rate rising by 4.4 basis points to 1.447% [5]. Institutional Insights - Guosheng Securities noted that the recent escalation in trade tensions has led to significant fluctuations in global capital markets, with expectations of a downward trend in bond yields [6]. - Huatai Securities predicts that the bond market in the fourth quarter will perform slightly better than in the third quarter due to improved odds and favorable supply conditions [7].