Core Insights - The report indicates a shift from profit to loss in self-breeding pig farming, driven by ongoing capacity regulation policies [1][7][33] - The overall investment rating for the agricultural sector remains optimistic [1] Group 1: Swine Farming Data Tracking - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.80% in August compared to July, indicating a slight contraction in supply [19] - The price of market pigs has declined, with the average selling price on September 18 being 13.15 CNY/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 2.74% [28][29] - Profitability in self-breeding and purchased pig farming has turned negative, with losses of 24.44 CNY/head and 199.31 CNY/head respectively as of September 19 [33][36] Group 2: Poultry Farming Data Tracking - The average price of white feather broilers on September 19 was 6.88 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.99% [34][37] - The profit from white feather broiler farming was negative at -1.56 CNY/bird [34][37] Group 3: Animal Health Data Tracking - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, with significant growth in vaccine approvals and product launches [43] - The industry is seeing a recovery in sales, with notable increases in the issuance of various vaccines [43] Group 4: Seed Industry Data Tracking - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn as of September 19 were 2430 CNY/ton, 3032 CNY/ton, and 2360 CNY/ton respectively, with corn prices showing a year-to-date increase of 11.2% [47][49] Group 5: Pet Industry Data Tracking - Pet food exports in July amounted to 930 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0% [52][53] - Domestic sales of pet food continue to grow, with e-commerce platforms showing an overall growth rate of 8% in August [55][57]

养殖ETF紧密跟踪中证畜牧养殖指数，中证畜牧养殖指数选取涉及畜禽饲料、畜禽药物以及畜禽养殖等 业务的上市公司证券作为样本，以反映畜牧养殖相关上市公司的整体表现。从估值层面来看，养殖ETF 跟踪的中证畜牧养殖指数最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅14.46倍，处于近3年18.68%的分位，即估值低于近3 年81.32%以上的时间，处于历史低位。当前行业景气度已在底部，有足够的安全边际，反内卷政策预 期下，供给端预计会有收缩，企业盈利中枢与盈利稳定性均有望明显抬升，优质猪企将迎来估值重估， 建议积极关注养殖ETF(516760.SH)。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 从资金净流入方面来看，养殖ETF近6天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得2696.09万元净流入，合 计"吸金"4563.25万元，日均净流入达760.54万元。 据涌益咨询，截至2025年9月21日，全国生猪均价12.71 元/公斤，周环比-0.50 元/公斤，同比-5.73 元/公 斤。截至2025年9月18日，涌益样本生猪出栏均重128.45 公斤/头，周环比+0.13 公斤/头，同比+2.49 公 斤/头，1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the coexistence of low pig prices and policy adjustments, indicating that capacity reduction may gradually become evident in the swine breeding sector. The average price of live pigs was 12.69 CNY/kg as of September 19, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.66 CNY/kg. The utilization rate of fattening barns has declined, averaging 40.12% across 17 provinces, down 4.82 percentage points from August 31 [2][10][33]. - In the beef sector, prices for calves and fattening bulls remained stable at 32.44 CNY/kg and 25.97 CNY/kg respectively, with year-to-date increases of 35% and 10%. The long-term outlook suggests tightening beef supply, with a potential price upturn expected in 2026-2027 [3][35]. - The poultry sector is experiencing weak performance, particularly in the white-feathered chicken market, where prices have decreased to 6.88 CNY/kg. The ongoing avian influenza outbreaks may further restrict upstream production capacity [4][41]. - In the agricultural products segment, soybean meal prices have faced downward pressure due to fluctuating market expectations regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations. As of September 19, soybean meal futures were priced at 3014 CNY/ton, down 65 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][55]. Summary by Sections Swine Breeding - Continued supply pressure has led to a decline in pig prices, with a current average of 12.69 CNY/kg. The utilization rate of fattening barns has dropped to 40.12% [2][10]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased slightly to 128.45 kg, indicating a strong outflow from larger farms [20][33]. - The price of piglets has reached a yearly low, averaging 259 CNY/head, down 11% week-on-week [27][33]. Beef Industry - The beef market is stabilizing after recent price increases, with expectations of tightening supply leading to a potential price upturn in 2026-2027 [3][35]. - Current prices for calves and fattening bulls are stable, reflecting a recovery trend in the market [35]. Poultry Sector - The white-feathered chicken market is underperforming, with prices at 6.88 CNY/kg. The ongoing avian influenza situation may further impact production capacity [4][41]. - Egg prices have fluctuated, recently peaking at 8 CNY/kg before settling at 7.92 CNY/kg [4][41]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices have been volatile, influenced by U.S.-China trade negotiations, with current prices at 3014 CNY/ton [4][55]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring weather conditions and trade policies affecting soybean imports [4][55].

Core Viewpoint - The livestock industry is experiencing fluctuations in stock performance, with a notable decline in pig and piglet prices, leading to potential losses in fattening and breeding segments. The industry is expected to undergo capacity reduction, presenting long-term investment opportunities as valuations are at historical lows [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 18, 2025, the China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) showed mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Bio-Stock (600201) leading gains at 2.39% and Tian Kang Biological (002100) experiencing the largest decline [1]. - The Livestock ETF (159867) was priced at 0.67 yuan, with a net subscription of 15 million units, marking eight consecutive days of net inflow [1]. Group 2: Industry Events - The 37th Central Plains Livestock Industry Trade Expo opened on September 16, attracting over 350 enterprises from 26 provinces, discussing the development of the livestock industry [1]. Group 3: Investment Insights - Pacific Securities indicated that the decline in pig and piglet prices is shifting the profitability of fattening and breeding segments from profit to loss, with increased demand for risk mitigation as the fourth quarter approaches [1]. - The current fundamentals and policy changes in the pig farming industry are favorable for capacity reduction, with most listed breeding companies' market values at historical lows, indicating significant potential for long-term investment [1]. - The Livestock ETF closely tracks the China Livestock Breeding Index, which includes companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and breeding, reflecting the overall performance of related listed companies [1]. Group 4: Top Weight Stocks - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index accounted for 65.57% of the index, including Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean oil price fluctuated widely recently. Given trade uncertainties, it's advisable to consider buying out - of - the - money call options and a long position in the bean oil - meal ratio. The Y2601 contract long positions could be reduced and observed [3]. - China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decrease in Canadian rapeseed imports. If so, domestic rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking process. A light long position can be taken [3][4]. - Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal inventory build - up period, but the production increase expectation slows down in September - October. The price has support below. A light long position can be considered [4]. - The soybean meal price is expected to decline. Short positions or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [5]. - The rapeseed meal price is expected to adjust downward. The market is waiting for the results of China - Canada negotiations [6]. - The corn and corn starch prices are under pressure. Short positions can be held cautiously, and certain option strategies can be considered [7]. - The soybean No.1 price is weak. Short positions can be continued to be held [8]. - The peanut price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by the expected increase in production and the cost decrease [9]. - The live pig price is weak. After the confirmation of capacity reduction, long positions in the 2601 contract can be considered. For cautious investors, a long - near and short - far spread strategy can be held [10]. - The egg price has fallen to a historical low. It's advisable to avoid short - selling blindly. Aggressive investors can buy the 2511 contract at a low price [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 11 | Domestic new soybeans are gradually on the market, and the supply is increasing. | 3800 - 3830 yuan/ton | 3950 - 4000 yuan/ton | Sideways with a downward bias | Hold short positions | | | Soybean No.2 11 | Uncertainty in Sino - US trade, supply expectation is changeable. | 3600 - 3630 yuan/ton | 3770 - 3800 yuan/ton | Declining | Try short positions lightly | | | Peanut 11 | Expected increase in production, cost reduction, and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support. | 7500 - 7600 yuan/ton | 8020 - 8162 yuan/ton | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean oil 01 | Weak fundamentals, continuous inventory build - up. | 8260 - 8300 yuan/ton | 8500 - 8530 yuan/ton | Wide - range fluctuation | Wait and see | | | Rapeseed oil 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, alternative supply, and de - stocking expectation. | 9500 - 9600 yuan/ton | 10300 - 10333 yuan/ton | Sideways with an upward bias | Light long positions | | | Palm oil 01 | Poor production performance of Malaysian palm oil, possible weakening of exports. | 9200 - 9208 yuan/ton | 9700 - 9736 yuan/ton | Sideways with an upward bias | Light long positions | | Protein | Soybean meal 01 | Uncertainty in Sino - US trade, supply expectation is changeable. | 2930 - 2950 yuan/ton | 3090 - 3100 yuan/ton | Declining | Try short positions lightly | | | Rapeseed meal 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, poor cost - performance, and weak consumption. | 2365 - 2400 yuan/ton | 2572 - 2584 yuan/ton | Sideways with a downward bias | Wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | Weak fundamentals, price under pressure. | 2100 - 2120 yuan/ton | 2240 - 2250 yuan/ton | Under pressure | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch 11 | Cost reduction, supply is slightly loose, price follows the downward trend. | 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton | 2580 - 2590 yuan/ton | Under pressure | Hold short positions cautiously | | Livestock | Live pig 11 | Feed price rebounds, strong expectation of capacity reduction. | 12800 - 13000 yuan/ton | 13000 - 13800 yuan/ton | Bottom - hunting | Turn to wait and see | | | Egg 11 | Capacity pressure and consumption peak season expectation. | 2900 - 3100 yuan/ton | 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton | Bottom - hunting | Buy at a low price | [13] 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Spread**: For most varieties, it's recommended to wait and see. For the 01 soybean meal - 05 soybean meal spread, a long - near and short - far strategy can be considered, with a target of 300 - 400. For the live pig 1 - 3 and egg 10 - 1 spreads, a long - near and short - far strategy can be considered at a low price [14][15]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: For the 01 soybean oil - palm oil spread, a short - position operation can be considered; for the 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread, a long - position operation can be considered; for the 01 bean oil - meal ratio, a long - position operation can be considered [15]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including soybeans, oils, protein feeds, energy products, and livestock products [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and delivery months, including CNF prices, arrival - at - port duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It presents the inventory and operating rates of soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, such as the port soybean inventory, oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and the operating rates of soybean and rapeseed oil mills [19]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock - **Live Pig**: It provides the daily and weekly data of live pigs, including prices, production costs, profits, slaughter data, etc [21][25]. - **Egg**: It provides the daily and weekly data of eggs, including prices, supply, demand, and profits [22][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts The report provides a large number of charts to track the fundamentals of livestock, oils and oilseeds, and feed sectors, including production, consumption, inventory, price spreads, and basis of various varieties [26][37][45] 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides the historical volatility charts of various varieties and the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio charts of corn options [85][87][88] 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides the warehouse receipt situation charts of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [90][91][92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating for both the pig and egg sectors: Cautiously bearish [2][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig market is difficult to change. However, in the medium and long - term, attention should be paid to the reduction of pig production capacity and national policy changes. For the egg market, short - term consumption demand is strong due to the double festivals, but the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market should be monitored [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2511 contract was 13,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 160.00 yuan/ton (- 1.22%) from the previous trading day. - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 12.94 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.23 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 13.21 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.18 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.66 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.10 yuan/kg. - Wholesale prices: On September 17, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 117.87, down 0.13 points from the previous day. The average wholesale price of pork was 19.73 yuan/kg, down 0.8% [1] Market Analysis - The weight - reducing slaughter of large - scale pig farms has weakened the festival's boosting effect. In the short - term, the supply - demand imbalance persists, while long - term factors include the reduction of sow production capacity and policy changes [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [2] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract was 3116 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of + 3.00 yuan (+ 0.10%) from the previous trading day. - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 3.60 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 3.85 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 3.53 yuan/jin. - Inventory: On September 17, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.5 days, unchanged from the previous day, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.74 days, an increase of 0.14 days (23.33%) [3] Market Analysis - After the egg price increase, terminal consumption and trading are smooth, and inventory is being cleared. Overall demand is still strong due to the festivals, but the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market should be noted [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: None - **Hold (★★☆)**: None - **Weak Buy (★☆☆)**: None - **Neutral (White Star)**: None - **Weak Sell (★☆☆)**: None - **Sell (★★☆)**: None - **Strong Sell (★★★)**: None Core Views - The market is affected by the expectation of improved Sino-US trade relations, with falling Brazilian soybean premiums and overall weak performance of soybean-related products [2][3][4]. - In the short term, it is necessary to verify the market's expectation of improved trade relations and pay attention to policy guidance and market performance of new crops [2][3][4]. - In the long term, supported by overseas biodiesel policies, soybean and palm oils can be considered for buying on dips [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean (Domestic) - Domestic soybean positions increased, and prices hit new phased lows. The expected opening price of new soybeans is low, around 1.85 - 1.9 yuan per catty [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - US soybean oil briefly rebounded and then oscillated downward. The domestic oil - meal ratio reached a phased high, with soybean meal weaker than soybean oil [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Affected by the expectation of eased Sino - US economic and trade relations, futures prices fell. Weekly soybean crushing is expected to be around 2.4 million tons, and soybean meal inventory is expected to be around 1.2 million tons at the end of September. The market may continue to oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the long term [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products fell today, with the oil - meal ratio continuing to rise. The expectation of increased soybean imports may put pressure on rapeseed meal prices, and the oil - meal ratio is expected to continue to rebound [6]. Corn - Dalian corn futures remained weak. Spot prices varied by region, with Xinjiang having high prices, Northeast remaining firm, and Shandong being weak [7]. Pig - Pig spot prices were weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. The goal of reducing pig production capacity by about 1 million heads was discussed. The market is currently recommended for observation [8]. Egg - Egg futures adjusted slightly downward, while spot prices were slightly stronger. It is recommended to consider going long on far - month contracts for next year's first half and pay attention to short - position exits in near - month contracts [9].

Core Viewpoint - The egg futures market has shown signs of recovery after hitting a low in August, driven by seasonal demand and expectations of culling hens, but the market remains in a prolonged state of competition with high supply pressure and uncertain capacity reduction [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of September 17, the main egg futures contract closed at 3122 yuan per 500 kg, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.32% [1]. - The demand for stocking ahead of the double festival and expectations regarding hen culling have contributed to the recent rebound in prices [1][4]. - The current high inventory of laying hens, which stood at 1.365 billion in August, represents a 5.9% year-on-year increase, indicating persistent supply pressure [2]. Group 2: Production and Cost Factors - The average laying hen cycle has extended to 2-2.5 years, with the current profit cycle lasting 45 months, which is longer than usual [2]. - The feed conversion ratio has improved, with leading farms achieving a ratio below 1.9, while most smallholders maintain a ratio between 2.1 and 2.15 [3]. - Cost control measures, such as the use of alternative feed ingredients, have contributed to maintaining profit margins in egg production [3]. Group 3: Culling and Supply Outlook - The market is experiencing intensified competition, with uncertainty surrounding the timing and extent of hen culling, which is crucial for balancing supply and demand [4][5]. - Current data indicates that the average age of culled hens is around 495 days, suggesting that the market has not yet reached a point of excessive culling [5]. - Projections indicate that the peak supply growth may occur in September, with a potential shift to negative year-on-year growth by December [5]. Group 4: Profitability and Market Sentiment - As of early September, the profitability of egg production has shifted from a loss of 0.13 yuan per kg to a profit of 0.26 yuan, marking a significant turnaround [7]. - The current market sentiment reflects a rebound in prices due to an overload of bearish expectations, rather than a fundamental reversal in the market [7]. - The high inventory levels and existing profitability are likely to hinder rapid capacity reduction in the near term [7].

Group 1: Swine Sector - The pig sector is experiencing a shift from profit to loss in piglet exports, emphasizing the need to focus on the expected differences in the swine sector [1] - Current average weights for pig slaughter remain high historically, while high temperatures are suppressing consumption demand, leading to continued pressure on pig prices [1] - A meeting on September 16 will analyze the current production situation and discuss capacity regulation measures, with expectations for capacity reduction in the second half of the year and into 2024 [1] - The sector is considered undervalued, with key companies like Muyuan Foods valued at 3500-4000 RMB per head, while others like New Hope and Tian Kang Biological are below 2000 RMB per head [1] - Recommended stocks include leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on New Hope and other flexible stocks [1] Group 2: Cattle Sector - The raw milk price is expected to bottom out, with potential recovery as the dairy cow capacity reduction nears its end [2] - The beef market may be entering a super cycle, but various factors such as funding and environmental concerns may limit restocking enthusiasm [2] - Companies with cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability [2] - Recommended companies include Youran Dairy, China Shengmu, and Guangming Meat [2] Group 3: Pet Sector - The pet economy in China is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly rising, highlighting the importance of companies with high domestic revenue growth [3] - Key recommendations include pet food companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., with additional focus on pet medical and supply companies [3] Group 4: Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is advised to focus on changes in breeding imports, as the industry has been in a downturn for three years [4] - The yellow chicken supply may contract, with demand being a core variable; prices are expected to improve as consumption increases in the second half of the year [5] - The egg-laying chicken sector is seeing high chick prices due to import restrictions, with a focus on companies with high market share [6] - Recommended stocks include Shennong Development and Lihua Group for white chicken, and Xiaoming Co. for egg-laying chickens [4][5][6] Group 5: Planting Sector - The conventional seed industry is awaiting a turnaround, with a focus on the industrialization of biological breeding opportunities [7] - The contribution of yield improvement to grain production is expected to exceed 80% in 2024, emphasizing the need for high-yield production [7] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong in the seed sector, and Xinyangfeng in agricultural inputs [7] Group 6: Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector is recommended for Haida Group, which is expected to see market share growth and consistent performance [8] - The animal health sector is focusing on breaking through homogenized competition, with an emphasis on innovation and new product development [9] - Recommended companies in the animal health sector include Keqian Biological and others focusing on pet health products [9]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic pig prices have unexpectedly dropped to a new low during the traditional consumption peak season, reflecting severe overcapacity pressures in the industry [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - As of September 14, domestic pig prices reached 13.32 yuan/kg, marking a year-low and below the cash breeding costs for some listed pig companies [1] - In September, pig prices fell to 13.23 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 31.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.62%, down 20.1% from the year's peak [2] - The current pig cycle is characterized by less pronounced price fluctuations, with prices not showing significant increases since hitting a low point [2] Group 2: Sales Performance - Major listed pig companies reported increased sales in August, with Muyuan Foods selling 7.001 million pigs (up 27.1% year-on-year) and Wens Foodstuffs selling 3.2457 million pigs (up 37.88% year-on-year) [3] - Smaller listed companies also saw significant sales growth, with Zhenghong Technology and Dongrui Co. reporting increases of 63.31% and 21% respectively [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand imbalance, with strong supply and weak demand, is a primary reason for the low pig prices [4] - The Ministry of Agriculture has implemented policies to reduce the breeding sow population, aiming to decrease it by approximately 1 million heads [4] - Despite a slight increase in the breeding sow population in August, the ongoing price decline indicates that adjustments may not be sufficient to change the supply-demand dynamics [4] Group 4: Industry Adjustments - Muyuan Foods has reduced its breeding sow population and plans to lower the average weight of pigs being sold, indicating a direct response to current supply pressures [5] - The reduction in breeding sow numbers will take about 10 months to significantly impact the market supply [5] - The industry is expected to see a gradual adjustment in production efficiency, which may not yield noticeable results until early 2026 [5] Group 5: Market Sentiment - Despite the ongoing price decline, the A-share market for pig farming stocks has shown resilience, reflecting market expectations of a price bottom [5] - The pig industry index rose by 5.89% in September, marking the highest monthly increase of the year, with most stocks performing well [6] - The current valuation of the pig farming sector is at a near 10-year low, which may attract investment as the market anticipates accelerated capacity reduction [6]