1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market is expected to be mainly volatile as the holiday approaches. Different agricultural products have different trends, including weakening, fluctuating, and potential recovery [1]. - For example, the supply of live pigs is abundant, leading to a weakening of pig prices in the short - term, but the pig cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Exports are weakening, and sentiment is cautious. Oils and fats are undergoing a corrective adjustment. - **Logic**: The 1 - month palm oil inventory in Malaysia is lower than expected, but the weak export performance from February 1 - 10 has put pressure on sentiment. For soybeans, the market anticipates an increase in South American soybean production in the USDA's February report, and the support from Sino - US agricultural trade is weakening. Regarding rapeseed oil, after the tariff reduction agreement between China and Canada in early January, the supply is expected to increase. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to be volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying hedges at low回调 levels [5]. 3.1.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Funds are reducing positions before the holiday, and the two types of meal are trading in a narrow range. - **Logic**: Internationally, China's purchase of US soybeans provides support, but the accelerated harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in Brazilian soybean production in the USDA's February report suppress the upward space of US soybean futures prices. Domestically, due to factors such as the exchange's margin increase and the Spring Festival holiday, pre - holiday funds are mainly for risk - avoidance, and the market is inactive. After the holiday, the cost of imported soybeans is expected to decrease, and the spot and basis of soybean meal are expected to be weak. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile [6]. 3.1.3. Corn - **Viewpoint**: Pre - holiday arrivals are decreasing, and prices are volatile. - **Logic**: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the trading activity is decreasing. After the holiday, there may be some selling pressure, but the remaining grain pressure is limited. The supply of feed grains is supplemented by policy - grain auctions and imported grains. - **Outlook**: Volatile. Pay attention to the trading and restocking rhythm of traders after the holiday [8][9]. 3.1.4. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Supply is abundant, and pig prices are weakening. - **Logic**: In the short - term, as the Spring Festival approaches, the number of slaughtered pigs is increasing, and the average weight is decreasing. In the medium - term, the supply surplus pressure will last until at least April 2026. In the long - term, the process of capacity reduction was hindered in January 2026. After the holiday, the demand will decrease significantly, and the supply is still excessive in the first quarter of 2026. It is expected that the pressure on live pig slaughter will weaken in the second half of 2026. - **Outlook**: Weakly volatile. Before the Spring Festival, there is a risk of selling pressure. After the holiday, the fundamentals remain weak. It is recommended that the industrial side pay attention to the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices in the first half of the year. The pig cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [1][10]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Maintaining range - bound trading. - **Logic**: The rubber price is expected to continue range - bound trading before the holiday. Although the fundamentals are relatively weak, there is a possibility of an early rise due to expected factors. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand side has some support but no large - scale restocking. The obvious negative factor is the rapid inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The trading volume is limited, but the capital attention is increasing [11][12]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Mainly range - bound trading before the holiday. - **Logic**: The BR futures price first rose and then fell. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the trading of butadiene is not bad. The mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. - **Outlook**: Weakly bullish in the medium - term. Although the short - term rise is fast and needs adjustment, the mid - term trend is still bullish [13]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Lack of upward momentum before the holiday. - **Logic**: The processing and inspection of new cotton are coming to an end, and the demand is improving. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, textile factories are shutting down for holidays. Before the holiday, there is no obvious driving force, and the cotton price is expected to be range - bound. After the holiday, the traditional peak season will boost the cotton price. In the long - term, the domestic cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be in a tight balance, and the cotton price center is expected to rise. - **Outlook**: Weakly bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips [14]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Brazil still has export potential, and sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the medium - and long - term. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus. Major producing countries are expected to increase production. Brazil's production is coming to an end, but its export potential is large. The production in the Northern Hemisphere is optimistic. - **Outlook**: Weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rebounds [16]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices are almost stagnant, and futures are fluctuating independently. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and both the terminal and downstream are in a low - demand state. After the holiday, the seasonal recovery of demand will bring marginal benefits. The valuation of pulp futures is not high, and the downward space is limited. - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is recommended to wait and see during the Spring Festival [17]. 3.1.10. Double - Glued Paper - **Viewpoint**: Trading is coming to an end, and double - glued paper is trading in a narrow range. - **Logic**: The double - glued paper market has entered a pre - holiday stagnant state. Paper mills' production is basically stable, and some production lines have maintenance plans. After the holiday, the consumption recovery rhythm depends on the resumption of work of downstream printing factories, and there may be more price - cutting phenomena. - **Outlook**: Weakly volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 yuan/ton [18][19]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Trading is light, and the market is range - bound. - **Logic**: Before the holiday, the log market is entering a shutdown stage, and trading is light. The spot price is relatively stable, and the market is range - bound. Although the fundamentals have improved marginally, there is still pressure from weak future demand and expected supply increase. - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range of 770 - 830 yuan/cubic meter for the short - term 03 contract [21][22]. 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring The report only lists the names of varieties such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, etc., but no specific data monitoring content is provided. 3.3. CITIC Futures Commodity Index (February 10, 2026) - **Composite Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2722.24, up 0.43%; the industrial products index is 2281.60, up 0.12%; the PPI commodity index is 1404.94, up 0.04%. - **Sector Index**: The agricultural product index on February 10, 2026, is 927.60, with a daily decline of 0.03%, a 5 - day decline of 0.61%, a 1 - month decline of 1.66%, and a decline of 0.58% since the beginning of the year [182][183][184].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group (002311.SZ) and "Buy-B" for Shengnong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) [2] Core Insights - The pig prices are expected to face downward pressure after the peak season, with self-breeding pig farming profits currently in the negative [4] - The feed industry is undergoing accelerated consolidation, with market share shifting towards leading companies with R&D advantages and scale [4] - The report highlights opportunities for Haida Group due to its efficient internal management and strong service advantages in the industry chain [4] - The report suggests that the pig farming industry may experience a significant capacity reduction in 2026, which could improve the fundamentals and valuations of the sector [5] - The pet food sector is expected to continue growing, with a shift in competition from marketing to R&D and supply chain management [6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The agricultural sector saw a decline of 1.92% in the week of February 2-8, 2026, with the food and feed additives, meat chicken farming, and pig farming sectors performing relatively well [3][13] 2. Pig Farming - As of February 6, 2026, the average prices for external three-way cross pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 11.65, 11.96, and 12.38 CNY/kg, respectively, showing a week-on-week decline of 4.12%, 1.64%, and 1.98% [4][22] - The average pork price was 18.34 CNY/kg, down 1.45% from the previous week [4][22] - Self-breeding pig farming profits were reported at -38.09 CNY/head, a decrease of 63.19 CNY/head from the previous week [4][22] 3. Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens was reported at 7.53 CNY/kg, down 2.71% week-on-week, with a loss of 0.26 CNY per chicken [37] 4. Feed Processing - The average price of feed for fattening pigs remained stable at 3.37 CNY/kg as of January 29, 2026 [41] 5. Aquaculture - As of February 6, 2026, the price of sea cucumbers was 120 CNY/kg, and the price of shrimp was 320 CNY/kg, both remaining stable [47] 6. Crop and Oilseed Processing - As of February 6, 2026, corn was priced at 2368.43 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.33% week-on-week, while soybean prices remained stable at 4072.11 CNY/ton [56][57]

Group 1: Soybean Meal - CBOT soybean ended a four-day rise due to ongoing soybean harvesting in Brazil and profit-taking after last week's gains [2][9] - Brazil's soybean harvest is at 16%, compared to 15% during the same period last year [2][9] - Domestic soybean meal market is experiencing fluctuations with high import costs supporting prices, while ample domestic supply increases inventory pressure [2][9] Group 2: Palm Oil - BMD palm oil prices increased, following the upward trend in surrounding markets, as traders await the MPOB report [10] - January palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to decrease to 2.91 million tons, a 4.64% month-on-month reduction [10] - Palm oil production is projected to decline by 12% to 1.61 million tons, while exports increased by 14.9% to 1.79 million tons [10] Group 3: Live Pig - Live pig futures showed weak fluctuations, with the near-month contract 2603 continuing to decline, closing down 0.52% at 11,565 yuan/ton [11] - The average daily price of live pigs in China was 11.66 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3 yuan/kg week-on-week [11] - Supply is currently abundant, leading to downward pressure on pig prices, with seasonal demand expected to recover post-Chinese New Year [11] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures experienced slight adjustments, with the main contract 2603 closing up 0.17% at 2,909 yuan/500 kg [12] - The national average egg price was 3.42 yuan/jin, a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/jin week-on-week [12] - As the Chinese New Year approaches, downstream purchasing activity is subdued, and some regions have halted pricing [12] Group 5: Corn - Corn prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the March contract transitioning to May, and market activity declining ahead of the Chinese New Year [13] - Prices in Northeast China remained stable, with farmers showing low enthusiasm for selling [13] - Overall, corn prices are expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation pattern before the holiday, with limited potential for significant volatility [13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in near-month contracts is attributed to weakening spot prices, with a notable trend of backwardation in the market [3][19]. Group 1: Market Trends - The spot price of live pigs initially rose to 13.30 yuan/kg in January due to holiday stocking and adverse weather, but has since come under pressure as supply increases ahead of the Spring Festival [3][19]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, pig farming enterprises are increasing their market supply to mitigate holiday risks, leading to a rise in supply pressure [3][19]. - The average weight of pigs being sold is currently high, and the reduction in weight before the holiday is less than expected, exceeding the capacity to meet holiday demand [3][19]. Group 2: Demand and Inventory - The demand for frozen products remains relatively stable, with a decline in utilization rates across various regions; northern markets have seen a decrease of around 10%, while southern markets show a varied decline between 2-11% [3][19]. - Frozen product inventories are continuously decreasing, although overall levels are higher than at the end of the previous year [3][19]. Group 3: Supply Outlook - The supply of newborn piglets is expected to peak around May 2026, with a continuous improvement in supply anticipated in Q3 2026, indicating a strong backwardation pricing trend for the year [4][20]. - The effects of capacity reduction are expected to gradually manifest in the second half of 2026, with expectations for spot prices to recover around May [4][20]. Group 4: Operational Strategies - The high basis of near-month contract 2603 continues, with the futures market showing a persistent downward trend, indicating a significant divergence between futures and spot prices [5][21]. - There is a need to monitor the risk of a significant decline in spot prices after the holiday, while short-term backwardation strategies are supported by fundamentals [5][21]. - Attention should be given to the reduction of breeding sows and potential low-position buying opportunities in the far-month contracts 2609 and 2611 as the market stabilizes [5][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the boosting effect of the Spring Festival has faded, terminal stocking is winding down, inventory has significantly accumulated, the egg market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and egg prices still face downward pressure [8][64] - In the medium term, egg - laying hen farming profits are in a continuous repair stage, and the core driver focuses on the pace of capacity reduction. The inventory of laying hens in production decreased by 0.54% month - on - month in January, and the lackluster chick - replenishment season since August last year will limit the increase in newly - opened laying hens. The supply - side pressure will gradually ease, and the inventory of laying hens in production is expected to turn from year - on - year increase to decrease in the second quarter of this year [8][64] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Prices - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the support level and declined, with obvious contract differentiation. As of Friday's close, the main JD2603 contract was reported at 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.34%; the JD2605 contract was reported at 3424 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.91% [5][12] 3.1.2. Spot Prices - Last week, egg prices in the production and sales areas of the country declined in tandem. Affected by the fading Spring Festival boosting effect and high terminal inventory, prices in the production areas continued to decline, and prices in the sales areas followed suit. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.76 yuan per catty, down 0.13 yuan per catty from the previous week; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.81 yuan per catty, down 0.09 yuan per catty from the previous week [7][18] 3.1.3. Basis Situation - The basis of egg futures and spot prices narrowed from the previous high. As of last Friday, the main JD2603 contract closed at 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, the spot price of eggs in the main production areas converted to the futures price was 3440 yuan per 500 kilograms, and the basis was 536 yuan per 500 kilograms [21] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - **Laying Hens in Production Inventory**: The inventory of laying hens in production decreased month - on - month. In January, the national inventory of laying hens in production was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.31%. Since August last year, the inventory has declined month by month. The newly - opened laying hens this month correspond to the chicks replenished in September last year, but the chick - replenishment season in September was lackluster, and the farming side was cautious in replenishing [27] - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: The slaughter volume of old hens decreased month - on - month. Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample market was 641,100, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67%. The average slaughter age was 487 days, the same as the previous week, and the monthly average age ranged from 473 to 497 days [30] - **Production Area Shipment Volume**: The shipment volume of eggs in the production areas decreased month - on - month. Last week, the total shipment volume of the main production area sample market was 7,180.27 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.10% and a year - on - year increase of 62.61% [36] 3.2.2. Demand Side - **Sales Volume in Sales Areas**: The sales volume in the sales areas decreased month - on - month. Last week, the sales volume of eggs in the representative sales areas was 7,397.99 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38% [39] - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: The slaughter volume of old hens in slaughter enterprises decreased month - on - month. Last week, the total slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 2.2165 million, a decrease of 38,500 from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71% [43] - **Chick Sales Volume**: The sales volume of chicks increased month - on - month. Since January, with the repair of farming profits and the low - price operation of chicks, the industry's enthusiasm for replenishment has significantly increased. In January, the total sales volume of representative enterprises was 39.18 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.18% [47] 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - The egg inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory in each link increased significantly month - on - month. As of Friday, the national production - link inventory was 1.47 days, an increase of 0.89 days from the previous week; the circulation - link inventory was 1.77 days, an increase of 0.98 days from the previous week, with an increase rate of 1.72% [51] 3.2.4. Egg - Laying Hen Farming Cost and Profit - Last week, the cost per catty of eggs was 3.54 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous week, with a profit of 0.23 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 yuan per catty. The farming cost of egg - laying hens was 133.97 yuan per hen, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 yuan per hen, and the farming profit was 19.85 yuan per hen, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9 yuan per hen [54] 3.2.5. Related Products - **White - Feathered Broilers**: The price of white - feathered broilers in the country decreased month - on - month. The average pre - shed price was 3.73 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 5.97% [60] - **Pigs**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig market continued, and the price declined weakly. The national average pig slaughter price was 12.22 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.57 yuan per kilogram from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.46% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.87% [63] 3.3. Market Outlook and Operation Strategies 3.3.1. Market Outlook - In the short term, the egg futures and spot markets weakened in tandem, and the main contract continued to operate weakly due to the drag of the spot market. In the medium term, egg - laying hen farming profits are in a continuous repair stage, and attention should be paid to the far - month contracts' expectations for capacity reduction [8][64] 3.3.2. Operation Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Temporarily wait and see, and continuously monitor the pace of capacity reduction and the process of inventory reduction - **Arbitrage**: None - **Options**: None [65]

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first company in China's pig farming industry to achieve an "A+H" listing, with its stock closing at HKD 40.52 per share, a 3.9% increase on the first day of trading [2][3]. Fundraising and Strategic Goals - The company raised funds through a global offering of 274 million shares at an issue price of HKD 39 per share, attracting cornerstone investors such as Charoen Pokphand Group and UBS AM Singapore, with total subscriptions amounting to approximately HKD 5.342 billion [3][4]. - 60% of the raised funds will be allocated for overseas expansion, while 30% will focus on technological innovation, and 10% will be used for operational liquidity [4]. Overseas Expansion Plans - Approximately HKD 62.76 billion will be invested in expanding the company's overseas business, including strengthening its presence in Southeast Asia and enhancing the global supply chain [4]. - The company has already established a wholly-owned subsidiary in Vietnam and is collaborating with local enterprises on a project to raise 1.6 million pigs annually [4]. Financial Performance and Market Conditions - In January 2026, Muyuan Foods sold 7.01 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 2.73%, but the average selling price dropped to RMB 12.57 per kilogram, a decline of 16.92% [8]. - The company's sales revenue for the same period was RMB 10.566 billion, down 11.93% year-on-year [8]. - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for the full year 2025, projecting a decrease of 12.20% to 17.79% compared to the previous year, with net profit expected to be between RMB 147 billion and RMB 157 billion [10]. Market Outlook - The pig farming industry is expected to undergo a market-driven capacity reduction, which may help stabilize prices in the long term [11]. - Analysts predict that seasonal demand leading up to the 2026 Spring Festival may result in a temporary rebound in pig prices, although overall supply remains abundant [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group, "Buy-B" for Shengnong Development and Wens Foodstuff, and "Hold-A" for Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Shares [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the feed industry is transitioning from product competition to value chain competition, with market share increasingly concentrating among leading companies with advantages in technology, scale, and service [7]. - Haida Group is expected to continue gaining market share due to its efficient internal management and strong service advantages, with significant growth potential in overseas markets [7]. - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is undergoing a market-driven capacity reduction, which may stabilize prices in the coming months [8]. Industry Performance Overview - For the week of January 26 to February 1, the agricultural sector saw a 1.82% increase, ranking fifth among sectors, while the CSI 300 index had a slight increase of 0.08% [6][16]. - The report notes a decline in pig prices, with average prices for external three-way pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan at 12.15, 12.16, and 12.63 yuan/kg respectively, reflecting decreases of 5.08%, 9.66%, and 4.54% [6][26]. - The average pork price increased slightly to 18.61 yuan/kg, up by 0.65% [6][26]. Livestock and Feed Industry - The report indicates that the average profit for self-bred pigs is 25.10 yuan/head, down by 18.25 yuan from the previous week, while the profit for purchased pig farming increased by 8.29 yuan to 124.13 yuan/head [6][26]. - In the poultry sector, the price of white feather chickens rose to 7.74 yuan/kg, a 3.20% increase, and the profit per chicken increased significantly by 550% to 0.39 yuan/chicken [44]. - The average price of feed for fattening pigs remained stable at 3.37 yuan/kg, while chicken feed prices were steady at 3.45 yuan/kg [47]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the ongoing consolidation in the feed industry, with a focus on companies that can leverage technological and service advantages [7]. - The pet food sector is expected to continue growing, with a shift towards R&D and supply chain management as key competitive factors [9]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Wens Foodstuff, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture for potential investment opportunities in the pig farming sector [8].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 蛋白粕： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周四，CBOT大豆延续涨势，受大豆乐观需求提振。美国农业部出口数据显示，美豆出口净销售43.69万 吨，创市场年度低位。市场预估增加40-160万吨。其中对中国大陆消失净增23.3万吨。巴西大豆产量或 超过1.8亿吨，限制了涨幅。巴西谷物出口商协会预计巴西2月大豆出口料为1142万吨。国内方面，豆粕 上涨，但涨幅小于外盘。一方面进口成本走高提振国内市场。另一方面，国内供应充足，库存压力加 大。豆粕震荡思路。策略上，短线参与，59反套。 （孔海兰，从业资格号：F3032578；交易咨询资格号：Z0013544） 周四，生猪期货偏弱震荡，主力2605合约日收跌0.43%，报收11685元/吨。卓创数据显示，昨日中国生 猪日度均价11.96元/公斤，环比跌0.04元/公斤，基准交割地河南市场生猪均价12.66元/公斤，环比涨0.36 元/公斤，四川、广东跌，山东涨，辽宁平。北方养殖端缩量，市场生猪供应收紧，下游收购难度提 升，被迫抬价保量；南方市场养殖端正常出栏，但 ...

Group 1: Corn Market - The corn closing price was 2269 CNY/ton, with an increase of 0.31%. It is expected that some enterprises will enter maintenance phases next week, leading to a continued decline in operations [4][14] - Market trading is notably quiet, with stable positions. The main divergence lies in whether there will be concentrated volume after the holiday. Future observations will focus on the elasticity of enterprise inventory demand in the short window before recovery [4][14] - Market sentiment is shifting towards post-holiday trading, maintaining a fluctuating trend before the holiday, but there is a possibility of a slight decline. The main contract support is observed around 2250, with resistance at 2330 [5][15] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - Following a call between Chinese and U.S. leaders, there is a consideration to increase U.S. soybean purchases from 12 million tons to 20 million tons for the 2025/26 season, leading to a significant rebound in CBOT soybean prices. However, South American abundant production may limit the price increase [6][16] - As Brazilian soybeans are shipped to China, market expectations of tight arrivals have been adjusted, resulting in a price correction. The May contract is supported by cost factors, performing better than the March contract [6][16] - Despite the potential increase in domestic soybean supply from continued U.S. purchases, the short-term focus may be on the cost support from the U.S. market rebound, maintaining a range trading strategy with an expected price range of 2700-2850 CNY/ton for the May contract [6][16] Group 3: Egg Market - The spot price of eggs in major production areas has seen a significant decline, with the average price in Hebei at approximately 3.0 CNY/jin, down 0.24 CNY/jin from the previous day. Traders may accelerate sales due to continuous price drops [7][17] - Short-term demand for pre-holiday stocking remains a key support, but post-holiday demand is a major risk. Current signs indicate a weakening in spot prices, leading to a bearish pricing trend [7][17] - Long-term attention should be on the actual progress of capacity reduction, with historical trends suggesting that 2025 could be a loss year, potentially improving supply-demand relationships in 2026 [7][17] Group 4: Live Pig Market - The average price of live pigs in major production areas was approximately 12.12 CNY/kg. The planned output for February is 22.92 million heads, a decrease of 17.73% from January [9][19] - Despite potential fluctuations as the Spring Festival approaches, the futures market has already priced in expectations for a decline, with a high basis level reflecting anticipated price drops [9][19] - Key observations for the 2026 market will focus on the depth and sustainability of capacity reduction, with changes in industry management potentially altering traditional "pig cycle" price fluctuation patterns [9][19]

消息面上，根据iFind数据，12月末全国能繁母猪存栏量降至3961万头，较10月调减29万头，去产能效 果逐步显现。华福证券发布研报称，猪价偏弱运行，叠加产能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预计持续， 有望推动长期猪价中枢上移，低成本优质猪企将获得超额收益。 招商证券表示，德康长期深耕于生猪及黄羽鸡养殖行业，经年累积的育种优势使得其畜禽成本领先于同 行。生猪方面，公司长期致力于成本挖潜，目前完全成本或已降至12元/千克左右，稳居行业第一梯 队；预计未来仍有压降空间。公司计划在遵循政策引导的前提下，重点发展二号家庭农场模式，联农带 动，积极响应国家号召，彰显头部猪企的责任担当。 德康农牧(02419)午后涨超6%，截至发稿，涨6.44%，报76.05港元，成交额7823.85万港元。 ...