当前时点如何看待生猪养殖板块？20251229 摘要 2024 年中小养殖场加速出清，大型养殖集团扩张，行业结构性变化显 著，本轮周期产能去化幅度预计将超前几轮，成本控制和现金流管理成 为关键。 历史数据显示，能繁母猪累计去化达 3%左右时，股价开始上涨。当前 行业深度亏损已持续三月，预计产能去化将加速，具备成本优势和现金 流的企业将迎来更长盈利周期。 元旦临近，屠宰场冻肉库存提升，终端消费需求较强，部分大型集团借 机拉涨猪价，但散养户惜售增加后续猪价压力，成本和现金流压力依然 较大。 2021-2023 年两轮周期中，中小养殖主体市场化出清，规模化集团扩 张，上市公司母猪存栏量不降反增，非上市公司去化力度更大。阶段性 去化完成后，股价行情启动显著。 公募机构持仓比例提升主要由行业累计去化幅度驱动，而非单纯时间长 度。更深度且快速的产能出清往往伴随公募机构持仓比例快速提升。 目前生猪养殖板块的产能区划节奏非常重要。从 2021 年到 2023 年的历史复 盘来看，尽管整体养殖结构变化不大，但市场对产能区划的敏感度和确定性要 求越来越高。21 年至 23 年期间，中小养殖场出清，大集团扩张，这一结构性 特征明显 ...

长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 目 录 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 01 生猪：供需阶段性错配，期价反弹承压 u 风险提示：生猪疫情、规模场散户出栏情况、需求表现、二次育肥和冻品节奏、政策 2025-12-29 u 期现端：截至12月26日，全国现货价格11.52元/公斤，较上周跌0.05元/公斤；河南猪价11.82元/公斤，较上周涨0.12元/公斤；生猪2503收至11645元/吨，较上周涨320元/吨；03合 约基差175元/吨，较上周跌200元/吨。周度生猪价格先跌后涨，窄幅震荡。周前期因为冬至备货结束后需求回落，养殖端出栏节奏加快，导致价格偏弱，后半段因肥标价差走扩， 二育介入和养殖端惜售带动价格反弹。期货主力03因估值偏低，在宏观情绪推升下偏强震荡，基差走弱。 u 供应端：9月官方能繁母猪存栏量小降，10月在政策调控和养殖利润亏损背景下，产能去化有所加速，但仍在正常保有量3900万之上，叠加生产性能提升，在疫 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 29 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏强 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多，轻仓过节 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空 ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/29 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/12/22 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2410 | 38 | 30 228 | 2750 | 2800 | 208 | -14 | | 2025/12/23 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2400 | 41 | 20 227 | 2750 | 2800 | 218 | -14 | | 2025/12/24 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2390 | 34 | 10 219 | 2750 | 2800 | 211 | -14 | | 2025/12/25 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2380 | 41 | 0 211 | 2750 | 28 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者|中信建投期货研究发展部 魏鑫 研究员|中信建投期货研究发展部 邓昊然 本报告完成时间|2025年12月26日 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考。因本平台暂时无法设 置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对 由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！ 摘要 近期在现货持续承压，窄幅波动的背景下，盘面远月合约出现了非常明显的预期博弈下的多头抢跑。从 基差视角看，远月合约2608对现货的升水幅度一度达到1500点，达到历史同期最大升水幅度，反映市场 对产能去化预期的乐观定价。 2）从鸡蛋期限结构看，市场中长期思路看周期转折，但实际演进过程中仍需要防范Contango结构阶段 性逆转的风险，时间上建议关注春节前后Contango结构逆转的风险。 随着市场产能去化路径逐步清晰，25Q4鸡蛋远月合约出现预期抢跑，远月合约整体价格中枢抬升。我 们认为，这种预期反映市场对未来供需格局改善的强烈预期与当前基本面承压现实之间的分化。 市 ...

蓝及立 农林牧注 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 2025 年 12 月 28 日 版》 中文 相关研究 t 券研究报 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 二育进场猪价反弹；宠物新国货大会召开 - 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.22-2025.12.28） 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申万宏源研究微信服务号 ● 本周申万农林牧渔指数上涨 0.3%，沪深 300 上涨 1.9%。个股涨幅前五名：神农科技 (35.7%)，国投 中鲁 (20.8%)，金粮控股 (19.9%)，华绿生物 (10.2%)，海南橡胶 (9.6%)，跌幅前五名：粤海饲料 (-6.4%)，*ST 傲农（-6.1%）、大湖股份（-4.7%） 乖宝宠物（-4.1%） 祖名股份（-3.9%) ● 投资分析意见：行业亏损加剧 ...

业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 28 日 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 行 评 - 二育进场猪价反弹；宠物新国货大会召开 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.22-2025.12.28） 本期投资提示： 1．本周农业股市场表现 本周申万农林牧渔指数上涨 0.3%，沪深 300 上涨 1.9%。个股涨幅前五名：神农科技 （35.7%），国投中鲁（20.8%)，金粮控股（19.9%)，华绿生物（10.2%），海南橡胶 （9.6%），跌幅前五名：粤海饲料（-6.4%），*ST 傲农（-6.1%），大湖股份（ ...

农林牧渔行业 超配（维持） 农林牧渔行业双周报（2025/12/12-2025/12/25） 行 业 白羽肉鸡价格有所回升 2025 年 12 月 26 日 投资要点： 风险提示：疫病大规模爆发，价格下行，自然灾害，市场竞争加剧等。 资料来源：iFinD ，东莞证券研究 所 | 1.行情回顾 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1 | SW | 农林牧渔行业略跑输沪深 300 指数 3 | | 1.2 | | 所有细分板块均录得正收益 3 | | 1.3 | | 多数个股录得正收益 3 | | 1.4 | 估值 | 4 | | 2.行业重要数据 | | 4 | | 3.行业重要资讯 | | 7 | | 4.公司重要资讯 | | 8 | | 5.行业周观点 | | 8 | | 6.风险提示 | | 9 | 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.c ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber, PTA [1] - **Bearish**: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Sugar [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Lumber, Cotton, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Benzene, Naphtha, Propylene, Butadiene, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment and liquidity are in a good state, with the short - term stock index breaking through the previous oscillation range and expected to remain strong. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as industry fundamentals, macro - sentiment, and policy changes [1]. Summaries by Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The short - term stock index has broken through the previous oscillation range and is expected to remain strong as the market sentiment and liquidity are good [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of short - term interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The industrial situation is weak recently, and the macro - sentiment is fluctuating, leading to high - level oscillations in copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is fluctuating, resulting in oscillating aluminum prices [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the short - term price remains low [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, with the cost center rising. Most of the recent negative factors have been realized, and the zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - **Nickel**: The global nickel inventory is high, but due to supply concerns, the Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove in the short term. The short - term nickel price may oscillate strongly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel - iron price has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The non - ferrous tin industry association has issued an initiative, causing the short - term tin price to oscillate weakly. Considering the tense situation in Congo and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: Overseas markets are in the Christmas holiday, and the strong US economic data has weakened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. After reaching a new historical high, the gold price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - **Platinum**: The domestic platinum futures price has a large premium over the spot price and foreign markets, with large expected fluctuations. Rational participation is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production in the northwest has increased while that in the southwest has decreased. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon have decreased in December [1]. - **Polysilicon**: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter, large manufacturers are eager to maintain prices but reluctant to deliver goods, and the short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply side has increased production resumption, and the price has exceeded the previous high. Short - term long - position operations are recommended [1]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high. Short - selling is not recommended. The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - term contracts still have upward potential [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but with good commodity sentiment, the far - term contracts have upward opportunities [1]. - **Glass and Glass Products**: They follow the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand conditions and low valuation. The downward space is limited, and they may oscillate under pressure [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by the domestic major meeting and export policy, the black - sector has declined. After the announcement of the steel - export licensing system, there are signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and the winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Although the high - frequency data has improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of a loose supply in the producing areas. Rebound - shorting is recommended [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is affected by the decline in the CBOT market and other domestic oils, showing a weak trend [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term positive factors of raw - material shortage are expected to be exhausted, and there is an expectation of a good harvest in the global main producing areas. Short - selling the 05 contract is recommended [1]. - **Cotton**: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, but there is currently no driving force. Future attention should be paid to the government's policies, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a consensus among short - sellers due to the global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous fundamental driving force in the short term [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Affected by snow and rain in the producing areas, the supply is affected, but the spot price is relatively stable. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and downstream enterprises are cautious. There is a certain replenishment demand before the Spring Festival [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: There is an expectation of a good harvest of soybeans, and the later discount is expected to face selling pressure. Recently, the market has oscillated following reserve - related rumors [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between weak demand and strong supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side operations and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the spread [1]. - **Logs**: Affected by the decline in foreign - market quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure as it approaches the delivery month and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement has an impact, and the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuelan crude - oil exports [1]. - **Bitumen**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The cost of raw materials provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The trading volume of butadiene has improved, the cost has increased, the operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a factory shutdown in South Korea, leading to a strong market sentiment [1]. - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, the pre - festival stocking and sales of polyester have improved, and the consumption of PTA remains high [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, are planned to shut down next month. The ethylene - glycol price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the demand from the polyester downstream is better than expected [1]. - **Benzene and Naphtha**: There is some support from the cost side, the spot - market sentiment has warmed up slightly, and the total inventory remains high without significant de - stocking [1]. - **Propylene**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, the upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, and there is support from anti - involution and the cost side. The maintenance has decreased, the supply has increased, and the downstream demand has weakened. There is an expectation of oversupply in 2026 [2]. - **Butadiene**: The trading volume has improved, and the cost has increased, providing support for downstream products [1]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was lower than expected, the expectation of price increase in the peak season was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply was relatively loose in December [2].

产能去化预期支撑 鸡蛋延续下跌后反弹 本周三，此前持续下跌的鸡蛋期货出现明显反弹。这一走势变化主要源于市场对未来产能去化的乐观预 期。在现货价格持续疲软的影响下，鸡蛋期货近月合约此前延续下行趋势。但随着近月合约价格不断走 低，市场情绪出现转变。由于远月合约此前表现相对较强，因此在本轮反弹中，其幅度小于近月合约。 股期联动：金银比持续收窄 白银LOF场内溢价 美联储降息预期叠加地缘避险情绪推升，金银价格延续走强，且白银表现强于黄金。市场投资者对未来 白银价格存在看涨预期，买盘推动白银场内LOF基金出现较大溢价引发市场关注。随着套利盘对场内基 金形成一定抛压，周四，白银LOF跌停。 本周受多重因素影响，大宗商品市场呈现分化走势。贵金属板块在美联储降息预期和地缘避险情绪的双 重推动下延续强势，其中白银表现尤为突出。有色板块方面，沪铜保持上涨趋势，沪铝维持高位震荡格 局，而沪锌则在周内呈现冲高回落态势。农产品板块方面，豆粕价格呈现震荡偏强走势，鸡蛋在经历低 位后出现反弹，玉米价格震荡格局，而生猪价格则出现小幅反弹。 基本面边际或将转弱 碳酸锂承压回调 第四季度电池排产表现偏强，强现实和强预期提振碳酸锂价格延续上涨。周 ...