证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 20 日 [Table_Title] 新房年末冲量 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 1）周度： 同比降幅持续收敛，二手房修复弹性更强。本周 38 城新房成交同比下滑 31%，降幅较上周收窄 2 个百分 点，已连续十二周负增长；15 城二手房成交同比降幅则大幅收敛 11 个百分点至 23%，已连续十周负增长，二 手房的边际修复速度快于新房。 2）月度： 统计局数据显示，11 月地产销量环比修复好于 2021-2023 年同期，但"以价换量"特征显著。同比来 看，受去年"924"后的高基数压制，11 月商品房销售面积、销售额同比分别下滑 17.3%和 25.1%。与 10 月 增速相比，销售面积降幅收窄 1.5pct，而销售额降幅反而扩大 0.8pct，呈现显著的"量价背离"。环比维度 上，11 月销售面积增长 9.3%，虽弱于 2015-2019 年同期，但强于 2021-2023 年同期均值（+8.0%）及去年同 期（+7.1%），显示市场活跃度边际修复。不过 11 月销售额环比仅微增 2.3% ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in China is experiencing a slowdown due to the withdrawal of replacement subsidies and consumer hesitation, with a notable decline in overall vehicle sales while the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment shows some resilience [2][7]. Group 1: November Market Review - As of mid-November, the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 2.225 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.1% [2]. - In contrast, the retail sales of new energy narrow-sense passenger vehicles were 1.321 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.2% and a month-on-month growth of 3.0%, with a market penetration rate of 59.3% [2]. Group 2: December Market Outlook - December is traditionally a peak season for the automotive market, with manufacturers leveraging the "Double Twelve" e-commerce event for promotions to boost annual sales targets [3]. - Despite the withdrawal of the old-for-new subsidy increasing consumer hesitation, the market is gradually returning to a seasonal norm due to year-end demand and expectations of reduced purchase tax subsidies [3]. Group 3: Manufacturer Sales Trends - Due to the significant adjustment of the old-for-new policy in November, most manufacturers have a neutral to conservative sales outlook for December, with major manufacturers maintaining or slightly increasing their retail targets compared to November [4]. - The estimated retail market size for December is approximately 2.3 million units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%. The expected retail volume for new energy vehicles is around 1.38 million units, with a penetration rate of 60% [4]. Group 4: Weekly Sales Trends - In the first week of December, daily retail sales averaged 42,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 32.3% and a month-on-month decline of 7.8% [5]. - The second week saw an increase in daily retail sales to 67,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 16.8% but a month-on-month increase of 8.8% due to promotional efforts [5]. - The overall estimated retail market for December remains at 2.3 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 3.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [5][6]. Group 5: Market Normalization Post-Policy Changes - The automotive market is currently in an adjustment phase following the exit of multiple consumer stimulus policies, with growth momentum shifting towards a demand-supply driven seasonal operation [7]. - As the new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidy transitions from full exemption to a 50% reduction, there has not been a significant "last-minute rush" effect observed in the market [7]. - Several automakers, including Weilai, Xiaopeng, and Aito, have introduced "tax coverage plans" to stabilize consumer expectations and mitigate market fluctuations caused by policy changes [7].

11月二手房成交环比回升同比下滑、需求分层显著，预判12月核心城市成交低位震荡。 ◎ 文/ 俞倩倩 2025年11月重点30城二手房成交规模环比增14%，前11月累计同比增幅收窄至3%，二手房成交动能持续放缓。究竟2025年11月二 手房市场成交结构有哪些变化？又反映出当前客群怎样的置业偏好呢？ 京沪深杭等200万元以下总价房源 成交占比同比增长显著 01 （2）京沪300万-1000万元中改二手需求全面"塌陷"，这一总价段同环比全线"飘绿"， 一方面源于新房市场优质产品入市对二手客 群分流作用；另一方面。二手"卖旧"链条受阻，成交周期拉长，也使得整体改善客群置换链条受阻。 （3）深杭中高改需求面临阶段性复苏 ，据CRIC监测数据，深圳2025年11月800万-3000万元总价段成交套数占比同环比齐增，而杭 州2025年11月300万-600万元总价房源成交套数占比环比增幅也较为显著。 | | | | | | | ッズ | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 嫩市 | सम् ...

Core Insights - Maserati has significantly reduced prices for its luxury models, particularly the Grecale, with discounts reaching up to 540,000 yuan, leading to a price drop from nearly 800,000 yuan to around 400,000-440,000 yuan [1][2][7] Group 1: Sales Performance - A dealership in Jinan reported selling nearly 300 units of the Grecale since July, with remaining stock accounting for about one-fifth of the national inventory [2] - The Jinan store's sales surged to nearly 200 units per month after the policy change in July, although sales have stabilized in December [3] - The Qingdao dealership faces a more urgent inventory situation, with only two units left, indicating a tight supply across the country [4] Group 2: Customer Insights - Customers are attracted to the Grecale due to its significantly reduced price, making it a competitive option against other luxury brands like BMW and Audi [3] - Concerns exist among potential buyers regarding the long-term availability of parts and service for the imported Grecale, especially with the upcoming 2026 model [3] Group 3: Market Strategy - Maserati's drastic price cuts are a response to declining sales, with global sales dropping from 26,689 units in 2023 to 14,725 units in 2024, a decline of over 40% [7] - The brand's market share in China has also decreased from 20% to 8.2% between 2022 and 2024, prompting the need for a strategic shift [7] - The current inventory clearance is aimed at making room for the 2026 model, which is expected to have enhanced features and a higher price point [7][8] Group 4: Brand Perception - The aggressive pricing strategy raises concerns about the dilution of Maserati's brand value, traditionally associated with exclusivity and high-end positioning [6][7] - While the current Grecale offers competitive specifications, the brand's long-term strategy will need to focus on regaining consumer trust and improving market performance with future models [8]

齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点张志恒孙佳琪 "原价近70万的玛莎拉蒂，现在落地不到45万？"近期，超豪华品牌玛莎拉蒂的大幅降价引发市场震动。旗下格雷嘉车型以最高直降54万元的力度开启清库 模式，燃油版折扣低至六折，纯电版更是探底四折。记者实地探访玛莎拉蒂4S店，揭开这场超豪华车市"价格战"的真相。 济南4S店：已经卖了近300台 "从7月份政策出台到现在，我们已经卖了近300台格雷嘉，现在店里还剩40-50台现车，占全国库存的近五分之一。"济南玛莎拉蒂4S店的销售人员向记者 表示。刚走进店内展厅，记者就看到一台已经卖出去的灰色格雷嘉，销售人员表示，相较于其他城市门店有限的选择，本店的配置更丰富，白色、黑色、 蓝色、灰色等车型一应俱全。 青岛门店库存告急： 现车仅2台，纯电版彻底停售 与济南门店的"库存大户"身份不同，玛莎拉蒂青岛4S店的清库情况更为紧迫。记者致电青岛的玛莎拉蒂4s店了解到，该门店仅剩余2台格雷嘉现车，颜色 仅限黑色和白色，选装费用分别为4.14万和9万左右，落地价控制在48万元以内。"现在库存非常紧张，全国范围内能流动的也就两三百台，我们店里可选 的不多了。"销售人员表示，若客户对现有颜色或配置不满意，可 ...

以下文章来源于凤凰网股票 ，作者公司研究院 凤凰网股票 . 凤凰网股票，价值投资者家园。凤凰网股票为全球华人投资者提供24小时权威、独到的市场资讯和行情产品，并始终关注中国资本市场的发展与变化。 来源：凤凰网财经《公司研究院》 近日，韵达股份披露，公司董事会将进行换届选举，经董事会提名委员会进行资格审查后，董事会同意提名聂腾云、陈立英、聂樟清、聂毅鹏、符勤 为公司第九届董事会非独立董事候选人。 上述候选人中，聂毅鹏出生于2001年，年仅24岁。聂毅鹏系韵达股份实际控制人聂腾云、陈立英夫妇之子。此外，候选人中的聂樟清系聂腾云之 父。 也就是说，此次董事会换届选举中，有4人是聂腾云的家庭成员。公司将于12月30日召开2025年第二次临时股东会，审议《关于董事会换届选举第 九届董事会非独立董事的议案》。 值得注意的是，近期韵达股份业绩承压。今年前三季度，公司实现营业收入374.93亿元，同比增长5.59%；归属母公司股东的净利润为7.3亿元，同 比大幅下滑48.15%；扣非归母净利润6.55亿元，同比下滑44.15%。 韵达的营收增长主要来自业务量扩张。信达证券研报分析指出，前三季度，公司累计快递业务量191.43 ...

Group 1 - The Shenzhen real estate market is experiencing a significant increase in transactions, with new home sales reaching 1,068 units, a week-on-week growth of 32.3%, and residential sales at 757 units, up 24.5% [1] - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen also saw a rise, with 1,619 units sold, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 14.1%, indicating a potential year-end "tail" market trend [1] - The Le Youjia Research Center reported a 9.5% increase in second-hand residential contracts, marking the highest weekly value since April 21, driven by year-end purchasing demands [1] Group 2 - The National Bureau of Statistics released the latest 70-city second-hand housing price index, indicating a deep adjustment in the second-hand housing market [2] - The Shanghai Yiju Research Institute noted that major cities are accelerating second-hand housing transactions, suggesting a positive "price for volume" effect that could enhance market activity [2] - The "Nanshan Housing Exchange" initiative, aimed at promoting old-for-new housing transactions, has already seen over 400 homeowners register and more than 230 old properties approved for sale within the first 10 hours of its launch [2]

Core Insights - The number of cities with rising new home prices increased from 6 to 8 in November, indicating a positive trend in the housing market [1][2] - The number of cities with declining new home prices decreased from 64 to 59, suggesting a stabilization in the market [1][2] - Shanghai led the year-on-year price increase among first-tier cities with a 5.1% rise, while other major cities experienced declines [2] New Home Prices - In November, first-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline in new home prices of 0.4%, with Shanghai increasing by 0.1% and Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreasing by 0.5%, 0.5%, and 0.9% respectively [1][2] - Second and third-tier cities experienced month-on-month price declines of 0.3% and 0.4%, with the rate of decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [1] Second-Hand Home Prices - Year-on-year, second-hand home prices in first-tier cities fell by 5.8%, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen seeing declines of 6.8%, 4.6%, 7.2%, and 4.8% respectively [2][3] - Month-on-month, second-hand home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 1.1%, with Beijing experiencing the largest drop at 1.3% [3] Market Dynamics - The increase in second-hand home listings, which rose to 2.678 million units, has contributed to downward pressure on prices, with an average listing duration of 94.72 days [3][4] - The demand for second-hand homes remains strong, with 65.8% of potential buyers showing interest, but this has not translated into price increases due to oversupply [4] Policy Outlook - The central government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market is expected to intensify, with policies aimed at controlling supply and promoting affordable housing [5] - The emphasis on localized strategies for inventory reduction and supply optimization is anticipated to support market stability in the coming years [5]

Core Insights - The article highlights the paradox of China's trade surplus, which reached a historic high of $1.08 trillion in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating a strong export performance but underlying issues in domestic consumption [1][5] - It emphasizes that a large trade surplus does not necessarily equate to a strong economy, as it may reflect an inability to consume domestically, leading to over-reliance on exports [1][5] Trade Surplus Analysis - China's trade surplus is calculated as the difference between exports and imports, with exports growing by approximately 5.9% in 2025 while imports remained stagnant or even declined in some months [1][5] - The significant surplus is attributed to low domestic consumption, as consumers are hesitant to spend on housing and vehicles, causing companies to focus on exporting excess production [1][5] Export Dynamics - The export of photovoltaic components has surged in quantity, but the total export value growth has not kept pace, with some months showing a decline in monetary value due to drastic price reductions [3][4] - Companies are resorting to "price for volume" strategies to maintain cash flow and market share, resulting in thin profit margins that hinder wage increases for workers [4] Domestic Consumption Challenges - The decline in the real estate sector has severely impacted consumer confidence and spending, as many individuals have their wealth tied up in property, leading to a defensive saving mentality [5] - Despite nominal growth in disposable income of about 5.3% in 2025, the faster growth in savings indicates a reluctance to spend, driven by fears of economic instability [5] Policy Recommendations - The article suggests several policy measures to stimulate domestic demand, including capacity reduction, urbanization initiatives, and targeted fiscal policies to alleviate the financial burden on citizens [5] - It advocates for a shift in investment focus from real estate to diversified asset allocation, emphasizing the importance of investing in cities with net population inflows [5] Future Economic Outlook - The article predicts a prolonged low-interest-rate environment globally, influenced by economic downturns and rising debt levels, which will create volatility in capital markets [5] - Investors are advised to maintain a diversified portfolio that includes high-dividend stocks and growth sectors, while also preparing for potential market uncertainties [5]

从某种程度上讲，N7证明了东风日产拥有"破局"的勇气和产品定义能力，而N6则是检验它是否拥有"深耕"的耐力与体系支撑力。 "两个月卖出118台，光提成就拿了15万！" 2025年夏天，一段东风日产4S店销冠接受采访的视频流出，成为N7上市初期火爆最生动的注脚。上市50天，大定2万辆，彼时，所有迹象指向一个结论：合 资品牌的电动化反击，这次要成了。 然而冷锋来得比想象更快。数据显示，N7 7月交付6455辆，8月交付过万，达10148辆，9月回落到6410辆，环比下滑35.55%，10月稳定在6540辆。从某种程 度讲，N7的出现在一定程度上扭转了人们对东风日产或者说合资车企的一些评价，但整体来看还是有点儿高开低走。 就在N7的余温尚未散尽之时，另一场更为激进的冲锋已经发起。12月1日，东风日产天演架构下的首款插混车型东风日产N6正式上市。新车售价区间为9.99 万元-12.99万元，如果叠加限时优惠方案，限时权益价来到了9.19万元。定位既瞄准了比亚迪秦L、吉利银河A7等自主插混轿车，也对朗逸、速腾等合资油 车有不小的杀伤力。 对于日产来讲，这个比预售价最高下调8000元、直接击穿辆合资混动底线的定价的车，早 ...