Core Viewpoint - The micro-cap stock index has consistently outperformed major broad-based indices this year, attracting significant market attention. The excess returns are primarily driven by PB (Price-to-Book) recovery and valuation switching rather than profit growth [1][12]. Historical Performance - Data shows that the micro-cap stock index has outperformed major broad-based indices in most years since 2010, with the exception of 2017 and 2020, typically generating excess returns [2]. - Even with a reduction in trading frequency from daily to quarterly, micro-cap stocks continue to yield substantial returns, indicating the stability of their excess returns [4]. Macro Factors - Historical experience indicates two macro factors significantly influence micro-cap stock performance: 1. Micro-cap stocks tend to perform well when liquidity is abundant. 2. They also show better gains during periods of declining inflation, particularly in the latter stages of recessions and early recovery phases [5]. Drivers of Excess Returns - The core driver of excess returns in micro-cap stocks is valuation recovery. Analysis reveals that increasing trading frequency contributes minimally to excess returns, and that returns are not closely tied to profitability levels. Notably, micro-cap stocks with negative net profits have increasingly contributed to overall returns since 2018 [7]. - The report identifies that excess returns primarily stem from PB recovery and the switch from high to low valuations, with PB contribution and PB discount being the main sources of returns [7]. Investment Strategy - Data validation indicates that smaller market capitalization and lower PB values correlate with a higher probability of achieving excess returns over the next three months. Therefore, selecting small-cap stocks with low PB can effectively capture micro-cap opportunities [9][10]. Current Market Conditions - The current level of crowding in micro-cap stocks is at a historically high percentile, with valuations also at a relatively high historical percentile. Historical data suggests that when micro-cap PB is significantly higher than the overall market, their performance tends to be poor, as seen in 2017 and 2020 [10].

Core Viewpoint - Traditional companies with strong fundamentals and low valuations are becoming the focus of public fund research, as they present opportunities for valuation switching in the current market environment [1][10]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Public fund managers are increasingly researching traditional sectors, seeking companies that can leverage new technologies for growth, indicating a shift towards "old trees sprouting new buds" [3][12]. - The strategy involves identifying traditional companies that have the potential to transition into emerging sectors, thus benefiting from valuation increases [4][11]. Group 2: Fund Research Focus - Recent public fund research has targeted traditional industries such as software, electronics, machinery, and energy, with specific companies like 聚杰微纤 and 广联达 being highlighted for their potential in new growth areas [3][5]. - Funds are particularly interested in how these traditional companies are positioning themselves in relation to new technologies, such as AI and robotics, which could trigger valuation shifts [4][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market environment makes it challenging to invest heavily in new high-valuation stocks, leading funds to explore undervalued traditional companies that may offer lower entry points into new markets [6][10]. - The performance of traditional companies transitioning into new sectors has been notable, with examples like 医脉通 demonstrating significant returns after successfully shifting their business models [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As 2024 earnings reports are released, traditional companies with stable fundamentals and low valuations are expected to attract more investment, driven by their potential for business model transformation and valuation switching [12].

Group 1: Baijiu Industry - The current PE-TTM for the baijiu sector is 19.31 times, which is at the 6.18% percentile over the past decade, indicating significant safety margins [1] - High-end baijiu brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to maintain market share through "price protection and volume control" strategies, with projected net profit growth rates of 13.3% and 12.7% for 2024 respectively [1] - Regional leaders such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Jinshiyuan are benefiting from channel penetration and the recovery of banquet scenarios, with sales growth expected to exceed 30% during the 2025 Spring Festival [1] Group 2: Consumer Goods - The beer sector continues to see high-end trends, with Qingdao Beer achieving an ASP of 4200 yuan per thousand liters and Yanjing Beer having over 25% revenue contribution from its U8 flagship product [3] - Functional beverages like Dongpeng Beverage, which holds a 31% market share, are rapidly expanding into coffee and energy tea, with a projected revenue growth of 45% year-on-year by Q4 2024 [4] - Health drinks such as Xiangpiaopiao's zero-sugar freeze-dried fruit tea have seen online sales double, with a projected PE of only 20 times in 2025 [5] Group 3: Snacks and Prepared Foods - Online sales for snack brands like Three Squirrels have surged, with a 200% year-on-year increase in GMV through Douyin, while Yanjinpuzi's quail egg product has annual sales of 1 billion [7] - The prepared food sector is benefiting from B-end restaurant recovery and C-end penetration, with companies like Anjifood seeing 30% of their revenue from prepared foods after acquiring Frozen Food Mr. [8] Group 4: Seasoning and Baking Supply Chain - Leading seasoning brands like Haitian Flavoring have reduced channel inventory to 2.5 months, while Qianhe Flavoring has over 50% revenue from zero-additive soy sauce, benefiting from restaurant recovery and household consumption upgrades [10] - Yeast leader Angel Yeast is experiencing over 25% growth in overseas revenue due to capacity release and cost reductions [11] - Innovations in raw materials are seen in companies like Lihai Foods, which has a 60% year-on-year increase in cream revenue, and Huirong Technology, with 30% of its plant-based cream revenue coming from exports [12] Group 5: New Tea Beverage Supply Chain - The IPO of Mixue Ice City has a significant impact, with a frozen capital of 1.77 trillion HKD, benefiting related A-share companies in the supply chain [14] - Companies like Anjifood and Xianle Health are positioned as suppliers of jam and frozen fruits, while Yudong Technology and Hexing Packaging are focusing on eco-friendly solutions and cost advantages in packaging materials [15][16] - The global expansion plan of Mixue, with 46,000 stores, could lead to a 30%+ increase in orders for supply chain companies [17] Group 6: Policies and Industry Trends - The Chinese government's "restore and expand consumption" policy is expected to result in over 300 billion yuan in consumer subsidies by 2025, directly benefiting the food and beverage sector [18] - Retail sales are projected to grow by 3.5% year-on-year in 2024, with health food categories (low-sugar/low-fat) expected to exceed 20% growth [19] - Valuation shifts are evident, with many sub-sectors like seasoning having a PE of 28 times compared to a historical average of 40 times, alongside noticeable foreign capital inflows [19]