Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The current bond market decline features stable short - term bonds and widening term spreads. The adjustment is due to the disappointment in 2024 expectations and the change in the macro - narrative. As the bond and stock markets have gradually become desensitized since late August and entered the August economic data window period, the trading focus of the bond market is expected to shift to fundamentals, and the bond market is expected to rebound from the oversold level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the August economic growth data released on September 15 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Review of the Bond Market Decline - The upward adjustment of bond yields started at the end of June. From June 30 to September 10, almost all bond yields rebounded significantly, with an average increase of 12BP (only the 3 - year AA - variety yield decreased by 5BP). Long - term bonds had a more significant increase, with the average increase of treasury bonds, government - sponsored bonds, and local government bonds being 15BP, 17BP, and 11BP respectively. The 30 - year treasury bond yield increased by 34BP. Most credit spreads narrowed, with an average narrowing of 5BP, and the narrowing of low - grade credit spreads was more significant [3] Reasons for the Bond Market Adjustment - The adjustment is mainly due to two reasons: the disappointment in 2024 expectations, as the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate in 2025 was only cut by 10BP, less than the average cut of over 20BP in the past three years, and the GDP growth rate in the first half of 2025 was better than the pessimistic expectations at the end of 2024; and the change in the macro - narrative, including the anti - involution movement dispelling deflation expectations and the strong performance of the stock market leading to the redemption of bonds [2][6] Desensitization of Bond and Stock Markets - From August 18 to September 8, the bond market was mainly sideways, while the stock market rose (CSI 300 rose 5.4% and CSI 500 rose 4.9%). The correlation between bonds and stocks weakened compared with July. The trading rhythm of the bond market began to lead the stock market to some extent. The bond market is gradually desensitizing to the stock market, which is related to the structural differentiation of the stock market's rise. The performance of A - share industries has been significantly different this year, and the stock market's sharp rise does not mean a comprehensive improvement in the Chinese economy [9][10] Bond Market Outlook - The trading focus of the bond market is expected to return to fundamentals. Historically, important turning points in the bond market often occur during the release of economic data. The current economic fundamentals are still weak, and the GDP growth rate in the third quarter is expected to decline. The bond market is expected to rebound from the oversold level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the August economic growth data released on September 15 [2][16][20]

公募基金费用新规的余波席卷至债市。 近两日，债券收益率大幅攀升。10年期国债收益率自9月4日1.74%的低位于几个交易日内连续快速上 行，9月10日，债市跌势仍未止步，10年期国债收益率当日下午突破1.8%的关键点位，一度触及1.83% 的高点；30年期国债收益率也上行2.9个基点，来到2.10%附近。 9月11日截至发稿，债市现已有企稳迹象，呈现长短端表现分化。利率债品种中，长端还在继续跌，比 如30年期国债活跃券"25超长期特别国债02"当日收益率上行1.7bp来到2.11%，30年期地方债活跃券"25 河北债59"收益率上行1.75bp至2.35%。短端利率债小幅回暖，1年期国债活跃券"25附息国债08"收益率 下行1.25bp至1.3475%。 受此影响，最近一周债基收益较为低迷。数据显示，截至9月11日发稿，所收录的930只短期纯债型基金 中有751只近一周回报为负；3571只中长期纯债基金中有2926只近一周回报为负。 CNEX债券分歧指数显示，在此轮债市"阵痛"行情中，基金机构持续抛券，成为市场卖方主力。 业界普遍认为，横向比较各类资产变动，本轮债券市场剧烈调整与以往"股债跷跷板"效应不同，未发 ...

截至2025年9月11日 11:24，公司债ETF(511030)多空胶着，最新报价106.07元。拉长时间看，截至2025 年9月10日，公司债ETF近半年累计上涨1.11%。 流动性方面，公司债ETF盘中换手0.5%，成交1.14亿元。拉长时间看，截至9月10日，公司债ETF近1周 日均成交21.92亿元。 规模方面，公司债ETF最新规模达228.48亿元。 资金流入方面，公司债ETF最新资金流入流出持平。拉长时间看，近5个交易日内，合计"吸金"9773.82 万元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。公司债ETF连续3天获杠杆资金净买入，最高单日获得903.44万元净 买入，最新融资余额达788.04万元。 信用债ETF赎回缩水，总规模3560亿元，单日下降8.0亿元，其中基准做市ETF下降4.7亿元、科创债ETF 下降0.4亿元；加权久期中位数3.8年。流动性：整体成交金额631亿元，平均单笔成交额299万元（基准 做市247万元、科创债386万元）；换手率中位数9.1%。估值情况：收益率中位数1.94%，贴水率中位 数-23.8BP（基准做市-31.5BP、科创债-19.1BP）。 在债市调整且信用债E ...

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in the bond market, particularly in long-term bond prices, have attracted significant market attention [1] - The adjustment in the bond market is believed to be relatively sufficient, with several supporting factors still in place [2] - The primary reasons for the current bond market adjustment include the "see-saw" effect between the stock and bond markets, high market congestion in the bond market, and short-term emotional disturbances due to new policies and trade negotiations [1][2] Group 2 - The investment logic in the bond market may be shifting, with a greater focus on the performance of the stock market impacting bond market dynamics [2] - If the stock market continues to reach new highs, the bond market may face ongoing pressure; conversely, if the stock market adjusts, the bond market may experience a rebound [2] - Current conditions suggest that the bond market's adjustment space is limited, and there is potential investment value, especially if further declines occur due to overreaction [2]

Market Performance - Treasury futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.30%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.17%, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.08%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.02% [1] - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" decreased by 0.4 basis points, while the 10-year government bond "25 Coupon Government Bond 11" saw a yield drop of 1 basis point [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 182.7 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and winning amount [2] - On the same day, 288.4 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 105.7 billion yuan [2] - The overall funding conditions remained stable, with a slight decrease in overnight repurchase rates for deposit-taking institutions [2] Economic Fundamentals - The manufacturing PMI for August slightly increased by 0.1% to 49.4, driven mainly by a 0.3% rise in the production index to 50.8 [3] - The new orders index also saw a minor increase of 0.1% to 49.5, indicating some resilience in external demand [3] - The raw material purchase price index rebounded by 1.8% to 53.3, while the factory price index increased by 0.8% to 49.1, suggesting ongoing price pressures in the manufacturing sector [3] Operational Recommendations - The slight recovery in the PMI for August may not significantly impact the bond market, but a balanced funding environment and renewed interest in long-term bonds could support a stronger bond market [4] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.75% and 1.8%, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a range-based trading strategy [4] - The anticipated easing of monetary policy, particularly with a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, could open up a wider space for domestic monetary easing [4]

Group 1: Market Liquidity and Trends - In early September, the scale of public market maturities increased significantly, with the weekly reverse repurchase maturity reaching a new high for the year [1] - Analysts expect that fiscal spending and central bank support will offset seasonal disturbances, maintaining overall liquidity at a reasonable level [1] - Government bond issuance and fiscal fund allocation are projected to inject approximately 190 billion yuan into the banking system, while regular fiscal revenue is expected to provide over 1.1 trillion yuan in support [1] Group 2: Financial Leasing Industry - By the end of 2024, the balance of direct leasing assets for financial leasing companies is expected to reach 640.54 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52.73% [2] - The total number of financial leasing companies is projected to be 67, with total assets and leasing assets reaching 4.58 trillion yuan and 4.38 trillion yuan, respectively, both showing year-on-year growth of 9.65% and 10.24% [2] Group 3: Company Bond ETF Performance - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has shown the least market discount in the past week at 2 basis points, with a net inflow of 52 million yuan [5] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 22.568 billion yuan, marking a new high in nearly a year [6] - The number of shares for the company bond ETF reached 213 million, the highest in nearly three months [7] Group 4: Fund Flows and Returns - The company bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past four days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 159 million yuan, totaling 201 million yuan [8] - The company bond ETF has achieved a net value increase of 13.60% over the past five years, with a maximum monthly return of 1.22% since inception [8] - The management fee rate for the company bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee rate is 0.05% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market issues are primarily endogenous, and the sustainability of the stock market is contingent on the resolution of bond market bubbles [1] Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The progress of bond bubble resolution can be observed through the R007-10Y yield spread, which needs to normalize for bond value to recover [1] - The current R007-10Y yield spread is approaching a normal state, with a moving average level of 24 basis points, compared to a normal level of approximately 29 basis points observed from January to November last year [1] - The potential for yield correction offers limited upward adjustment space of about 5 basis points, suggesting a reasonable 10Y government bond yield at around 1.78% [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has shown the best performance in controlling drawdowns during the recent bond market adjustment, with minimal trading discounts and stable net value [1] - A detailed table of various bond ETFs indicates their recent performance, with the Ping An Company Bond ETF having a scale of 22.353 billion and a year-to-date return of -0.119% [1] - Other ETFs listed show varying degrees of performance, with some experiencing larger drawdowns and trading discounts compared to the Ping An ETF [1]

Core Insights - The most challenging period for the bond market may have passed, as indicated by significant trading volume in the A-share market, reaching 2.81 trillion, marking the third-highest daily trading volume in history [1] - The impact of the stock market on the bond market's capital is limited, with an estimated 2 trillion flowing into the stock market this bull run, which is unlikely to have a decisive effect on the bond market [1] - Redemption pressures exist, but the likelihood of negative feedback is low due to increased liquidity in bank wealth management products, which have a higher proportion of liquid assets [1] Market Analysis - The recent surge in A-share trading volume suggests a potential slowdown in subsequent price increases, with a possibility of a short-term correction [1] - Historical comparisons show that the current adjustment in the bond market is less severe than previous adjustments in 2024 and early 2025 [1] - The performance of various bond ETFs indicates that the Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has the best control over drawdown, providing stability for investors during this challenging period [1] ETF Performance Summary - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has a scale of 22.353 billion, with a recent weekly average discount of -0.06% and a year-to-date return of 0.84% [1] - Other notable ETFs include the Hai Fu Tong Shanghai City Investment Bond ETF (511220) with a scale of 24.511 billion and a year-to-date return of 1.05%, and the Southern Shanghai Benchmark Market Company Bond ETF (511070) with a scale of 21.127 billion and a year-to-date return of 0.63% [1] - The overall performance of these ETFs reflects varying levels of risk and return, with the Ping An ETF showing the most resilience during the current market adjustment [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is under phased pressure, and potential negative feedback effects should be vigilant. The recent bond market has been under continuous pressure, mainly disturbed by three factors: the strengthening of M1 year - on - year data, the significant recovery of market risk appetite, and the "anti - involution" policy expectation. The stock - bond cost - performance index shows that the bond allocation value is accumulating but has not reached the threshold for asset re - allocation. In the short term, the strong performance of the equity market is the biggest risk for the bond market, and investors are advised to maintain a defensive stance and a short - duration strategy [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Review - From August 18th to 22nd, the yields of treasury bonds fluctuated upwards, and the stock - bond seesaw effect dominated the bond market trend. The yields of 1 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds increased by 0.42bp and 3.53bp respectively, closing at 1.3707% and 1.7818%. The bond market was affected by factors such as tax payment, LPR quotes, and equity market trends during the week [2][10]. 3.2 Bond Market Data Tracking 3.2.1 Funding Situation - From August 18th to 22nd, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 12,652.00 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 20,770.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and had 7,118.00 billion yuan in maturities. The funding rates first increased and then decreased. R001, DR001, R007, and DR007 all increased compared to the previous week, and the funding situation remained in a tight balance. The central bank is expected to continue to maintain liquidity injection next week, and the funding rate center may remain flat [4][23]. 3.2.2 Supply Side - From August 18th to 22nd, the total issuance volume of interest - rate bonds increased, and the net financing amount increased. The total issuance scale of interest - rate bonds was 13,099.50 billion yuan, an increase of 1,335.28 billion yuan from the previous week. The government bond issuance scale decreased, and the net financing amount decreased. The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased, and the net financing amount decreased [39][42]. 3.3 Next Week's Outlook and Strategy 3.3.1 Next Week's Outlook - The supply pressure of treasury bonds will ease next week. There are no treasury bond issuance plans, and the planned issuance of local government bonds is 3,515.97 billion yuan. Facing the cross - month disturbance and large - scale reverse repurchase maturity pressure, the central bank is expected to continue to maintain a stance of protecting liquidity, and the funding rate center may remain flat [3][60]. 3.3.2 Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is under phased pressure, and potential negative feedback effects should be vigilant. The recent bond market has been under pressure due to factors such as the strengthening of M1 data, the recovery of market risk appetite, and policy expectations. The stock - bond cost - performance index shows that the bond allocation value is accumulating. In the short term, the strong performance of the equity market is the biggest risk for the bond market. Investors are advised to maintain a defensive stance and a short - duration strategy [5]. 3.4 Global Major Assets - U.S. Treasury yields generally declined. As of August 22, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y U.S. Treasuries decreased compared to August 15. The U.S. dollar index declined, and the central parity rate of the U.S. dollar against the RMB decreased slightly. Gold, silver, and crude oil prices generally rose [69][70].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the bond market have drawn investor attention, particularly towards the 5Y National Development Bank active bonds, which exhibit significant volatility and a potential slight bearish trend in the market [1] Bond Market Analysis - The current IRR of government bond futures is low, indicating that futures prices are relatively cheap overall [1] - Long-term contracts have experienced more adjustments due to market expectations and VAT-related factors [1] ETF Performance - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has the best performance in terms of controlling drawdown during the recent bond market adjustment, with the least market discount in the past week and a relatively stable net value [1] - The table provided shows various ETFs, their scale in billions, recent performance metrics, and drawdown statistics, highlighting the performance of different bond ETFs [1]