Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a significant increase in trading activity and net inflows, indicating strong market interest despite recent adjustments in the bond market [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 24, 2025, the Bosera 30-year government bond ETF has decreased by 0.53%, with a latest price of 110.98 yuan [3]. - Year-to-date, the ETF has appreciated by 1.24% as of July 23, 2025 [3]. - The ETF's trading volume has been active, with a turnover rate of 31.54% and a total transaction value of 3.799 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Fund Size and Inflows - The latest size of the Bosera 30-year government bond ETF has reached a record high of 12.066 billion yuan [3]. - The ETF has achieved a new high in shares, totaling 10.8 million [3]. - Over the past five days, the ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 1.51 billion yuan, totaling 3.082 billion yuan in net inflows [3]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The ETF has recorded a 11.91% increase in net value over the past year, ranking 6th out of 414 index bond funds, placing it in the top 1.45% [4]. - Since inception, the ETF's maximum monthly return has been 5.35%, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being four months [4]. - The ETF has a historical one-year profit probability of 100% and an average monthly return of 2.09% [4]. Group 4: Risk and Fees - The maximum drawdown since inception for the ETF is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [4]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [4]. - The tracking error for the ETF over the past month is 0.031% [4].

Market Overview - The equity market experienced fluctuations with a significant decrease in trading volume, indicating a growing wait-and-see sentiment [1] - The bond market showed a weak trend with government bond yields generally rising by 0-1 basis points [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The 30-year government bond futures rose by 0.30%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts increased by 0.11% and 0.08% respectively [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF (博时511130) saw a significant inflow of funds, with a net inflow of 1.63 billion and a total scale surpassing 9 billion [1][5] Market Adjustments - Recent adjustments in the bond market are attributed to the market digesting high risk preferences, with daily adjustments exceeding 1 basis point [1] - Despite frequent negative news, key variables influencing the bond market, such as fundamentals and central bank attitudes, have not changed [1] Liquidity and Interest Rates - The liquidity situation is tightening, with the central bank's reverse repo balance decreasing significantly, indicating a net withdrawal of funds [2] - The upcoming tax payment period is expected to exert further pressure on liquidity, with a projected shortfall of approximately 2.3 trillion [2][4] Future Outlook - The bond market may recover quickly if the central bank maintains a supportive stance towards liquidity, presenting opportunities for investors [3][5] - The 30-year government bond ETF is highlighted as a key investment focus due to its strong performance and significant inflows, reflecting investor confidence in long-term bonds [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market and its current dynamics, influenced by central bank policies and market conditions [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment and Central Bank Actions** The central bank's liquidity injection indicates a protective stance towards the market, despite seasonal increases in funding rates. The overall outlook for the bond market remains bullish, focusing on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations [1][2]. 2. **Market Adjustments and Influencing Factors** Recent market adjustments are attributed to high institutional congestion and multiple compounding factors, such as trading restrictions, urban renewal expectations, and bond supply pressures. These adjustments are seen as temporary and beneficial for future policy implementations [1][4][5]. 3. **Stock-Bond Relationship** Concerns regarding the stock-bond "teeter-totter" effect are minimized, as the current stock market rise is primarily driven by policy catalysts rather than economic growth or inflation. Institutional demand for fixed-income assets remains rigid, indicating limited impact from stock market performance on bond investments [6]. 4. **Synchronization of Stock Indices and Bond Yields** In the first half of the year, stock indices and 10-year government bond yields rose simultaneously due to market liquidity concerns and external factors like the Geneva talks. However, these influences are not expected to persist, alleviating short-term worries [7]. 5. **Impact of Agricultural Commercial Bank Restrictions** Restrictions on agricultural commercial banks mainly affect their loan-to-deposit ratios and net interest margins. These measures may lead to balance sheet reductions or alternative bond investments, but their long-term impact on the bond market is considered limited [8]. 6. **Urban Renewal Policy Dynamics** The urban renewal policy differs fundamentally from the shantytown renovation policy, emphasizing gradual price increases through micro-level leverage rather than large-scale demolitions. The sustainability of this policy relies on incremental capital inflows [9]. 7. **Export Trends and Future Outlook** Recent high-frequency data indicates a rebound in exports, particularly to Europe and Southeast Asia, while exports to the U.S. have declined. However, trade restrictions and moderate CPI data suggest a cautious outlook for future export performance [10]. 8. **Supply Conditions in July** July's supply levels are expected to be higher compared to August and September, particularly in the latter part of the month. The issuance results of long-term local bonds have been poor, but historically, actual supply realization can be beneficial for the market. Current 10-year government bond yields are nearing a relative upper limit, presenting potential buying opportunities [11]. Additional Important Insights - The central bank's recent reverse repo operations, totaling 1.4 trillion, reflect a proactive approach to manage liquidity amidst seasonal pressures [2]. - The divergence between quantitative models and subjective judgment highlights the importance of focusing on broader trends rather than short-term fluctuations [3]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the bond market and related economic factors.

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3519.65 points, up 0.27%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10684.52 points, down 0.11% [1] - The total trading volume for the two markets was 623.1 billion yuan for Shanghai and 835.6 billion yuan for Shenzhen [1] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector led the market gains, driven by a significant procurement project from China Mobile for humanoid biped robots, with a total budget of 124 million yuan, marking the largest single procurement in the domestic humanoid robot field [2] - In May, China's industrial robot production increased by 35.5% year-on-year, reaching 69,100 units, while service robot production grew by 13.8% to 1.2164 million units [2] - The export market share for China's industrial robots rose to second globally last year, with a 61.5% increase in exports in the first half of this year [2] Policy and Industry Outlook - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to develop humanoid robots and improve common technology research and data infrastructure [3] - The Chinese robotics industry is positioned for growth due to recovering domestic and international demand, supportive policies, and enhanced product performance, suggesting a favorable long-term trend for domestic brands [3] Bond Market - Different maturities of bonds experienced adjustments, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.6710% and the 30-year yield at 1.8825%, both hitting a one-month high [4] - The issuance of long-term bonds by the Ministry of Finance exceeded expectations, leading to a rise in secondary market yields [4] Economic Outlook - The ongoing anti-involution measures may constrain production and impact employment and income, potentially affecting demand [6] - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy to support economic activity amid weakening fundamentals and low inflation [6] Copper Market - The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper by Trump is expected to pressure copper prices, with a significant influx of arbitrage funds impacting both London and Shanghai copper prices [7] - Short-term demand for copper is recovering, with a 3.3 percentage point increase in copper rod operating rates to 67.0% [7] - Long-term, strong investment and consumption, along with supportive monetary policy, are expected to elevate copper prices [7] Gold Market - Trump's new tariffs on EU and Canadian goods may bolster gold prices as a safe-haven asset [8] - China's gold reserves increased to approximately 2,298.55 tons, reflecting a trend of "de-dollarization" in the global monetary system [8] - The outlook for gold remains strong due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit [9]

Group 1 - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2 - The core view of the report is that the suppression of the stock market's strength on the bond market is not severe, and the bond market's reaction to the stock market will gradually become dull. However, the bond market currently faces certain disturbances, and further opportunities to go long may require weaker economic high - frequency data, policy implementation, and the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle [4][26][27]. Group 3 1. How does the stock - bond seesaw play out? - The report calculated the dynamic correlation coefficient between the daily changes of the Shanghai Composite Index and the daily changes of the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate since 2015. It found that the stock - bond seesaw effect holds in most periods, with stock and bond markets generally moving in opposite directions. The weakening of the negative correlation mainly occurs during periods of obvious liquidity tightening or loosening, such as from 2016.07 - 2017.05 (liquidity tightening) and 2020.02 - 2022.10 (liquidity loosening). In the current bond market adjustment, the correlation between stocks and bonds has not significantly increased, and the stock market's impact on the bond market will decrease [4][11][13]. 2. How to view the subsequent bond market? - **Fundamental data disturbances**: In June, high - frequency port data showed that export performance remained resilient, and the spread between the six - month national and joint - stock bank bill rediscount rate and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate indicated possible improvement in credit conditions, which may affect bond market interest rates [15][18]. - **Accelerated issuance of special bonds**: The issuance of local special bonds may accelerate significantly in July, increasing the supply pressure on the bond market. It may also disrupt the capital market and restrict the decline of bond market interest rates as it can boost local investment [20]. - **Rising policy expectations**: Policy expectations related to the real estate industry are fermenting. Although the real estate market has been weak, new policies are expected to boost its performance, which may disrupt bond market sentiment [24]. 3. Summary - The stock market's strength has a limited impact on the bond market, and the bond market's reaction to the stock market will gradually become dull. However, the bond market currently faces disturbances from fundamental data, special bond issuance, and policy expectations. Further opportunities to go long may require weaker economic high - frequency data, policy implementation, and the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle [26][27][29].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF (511090) has seen significant trading activity and liquidity, with a recent price adjustment to 124.5 yuan and a turnover rate of 24.52% [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The 30-year government bond ETF recorded a trading volume of 41.31 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 69.27 billion yuan, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2: Fund Size and Inflows - The latest size of the 30-year government bond ETF reached 168.46 billion yuan, showcasing its substantial market presence [1] - Recent data indicates a net inflow of 8.49 billion yuan into the ETF, suggesting positive investor sentiment [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Huaxi Securities noted that after recent adjustments, the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds have returned to relatively high levels of 1.65% and 1.85%, respectively, making the market more sensitive to positive news and less reactive to negative news [1] - The upcoming mid-July period is highlighted as a critical observation point for the central bank's stance on liquidity, which could influence the bond market's recovery [1] - Guosheng Securities emphasized that the current stock market rally relies on a low-interest-rate environment, and the bond market's adjustment space is limited, presenting better allocation opportunities post-adjustment [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is currently experiencing adjustments due to a self-correction of excessive risk appetite, with significant fluctuations observed from July 9 to 11, where daily adjustments exceeded 1 basis point [1][22][25] - Despite the frequent negative rotations in the bond market, key variables influencing the market direction, such as fundamentals, central bank attitudes, and external circulation pressures, have not changed [1][25][37] - The report highlights that the bond market's pricing reference may shift from the stock market to fundamentals as economic data is released, indicating a weak correlation between stock market rebounds and bond market pricing [3][36] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to the 10-year and 30-year government bonds returning to relatively high positions at 1.65% and 1.85%, respectively, making the market more sensitive to positive news and less responsive to negative news [4][37] - It emphasizes that the liquidity situation will be a critical observation period for the central bank's attitude, especially with a significant funding gap expected in mid-July [4][26][39] - The report suggests that despite recent increases in funding prices, overnight rates remain relatively low, indicating that leverage strategies may still be preferred in July [6][39][40] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of recent adjustments in the bond market, where the duration of bond funds has decreased, reflecting a shift in market behavior as institutions reduce their duration amid tightening liquidity [6][24][25] - It also mentions that the government bond issuance volume remains above 400 billion, indicating ongoing government financing activities [6][21] - The report highlights that the leverage ratio in the non-bank sector has decreased significantly, indicating a market-wide trend towards deleveraging [6][24] Group 4 - The report outlines the recent changes in the interest rate environment, with the overnight rates rising to 1.40% and 1.51% for R001 and R007, respectively, indicating a tightening liquidity situation [15][25][26] - It notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to a significant increase in the issuance rates of certificates of deposit, reflecting rising costs for banks [29][30] - The report also highlights the ongoing adjustments in the credit bond market, particularly in the long-end segment, where yields have been affected by negative rotations [17][16] Group 5 - The report indicates that the recent changes in tariffs by the U.S. government may have implications for global trade dynamics, with increased tariffs on key countries potentially impacting the bond market [31][32] - It suggests that the market is currently cautious regarding tariff changes, with a wait-and-see approach being adopted by investors [31][32] - The report emphasizes that the bond market's response to external factors, such as tariffs, may not be immediate, and investors are advised to monitor developments closely [31][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", with an expected increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [25] Core Viewpoints - The recent rally in commodity prices is a result of the resonance between supply disruptions and improved expectations, and there are four "suspicious points" in this rally [1] - The divergence between commodity prices and PPI is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound [1] - For the bond market, the significance of monitoring commodity prices lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors. There is a risk of adjustment if expectations boost the fundamentals [1] Summary by Directory Suspicious Point 1: Long - lasting and High - amplitude Increase - The commodity rally has lasted for a month, the longest this year, and has recovered nearly 50% of the decline since the tariff announcement. Technically, it seems more like a market reversal than a short - term rebound [1][4] Suspicious Point 2: Driven by Seemingly Random Factors but with a Rising Price Center - The rally can be divided into three stages: the first stage (604 - 612) was a technical rebound after the release of pessimistic sentiment; the second stage (613 - 624) saw prices rise and then fall due to the Israel - Iran war; the third stage (625 onwards) was driven by the "anti - involution" market. After these stages, the industrial product price index rose by 5.6% compared to June 3 [7][8] - The rising price center is due to three reasons: low prices leading to a high probability of upward movement, improved pessimistic expectations after the China - US leaders' call, and the seasonal tendency for prices to rise during the safety inspection and maintenance months of June and July [10][11] Suspicious Point 3: Lack of Demand - side Support for the Price Rebound - From the perspectives of fundamentals and price spreads, the demand side has been weak. The "old economy" related to real estate has not reversed its weakness, and the real estate market shows "weak volume and price" [15] - There is a divergence between futures and spot prices for some commodities, with the price increase mainly reflecting expectations rather than actual demand [17] Suspicious Point 4: The Commodity Rebound Has Not Yet Appeared in PPI - In June, PPI remained weak, with the year - on - year figure dropping by 0.3 percentage points compared to May. The divergence is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission [19] - The weekly production materials price index has rebounded for three consecutive weeks since June. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound in July [20] Impact on the Bond Market - The significance of monitoring commodity prices for the bond market lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors [1] - Currently, the risk of a fundamental reversal in commodity prices is low, but the price rebound may be transmitted to inflation. There is a high possibility of improvement in July's PPI [1] - In the long run, commodity prices depend on the relative changes in supply and demand. If expectations boost the fundamentals, there is a risk of adjustment in the bond market [1]

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a significant pullback on July 10, with all major government bond futures closing lower, indicating increased vulnerability due to compressed spreads, high leverage, and low funding rates [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 32.8 billion yuan in the open market, with short-term funding rates trending upwards as the month progresses [1][5] Bond Futures Performance - The 30-year main contract fell by 0.36% to 120.530, while the 10-year main contract decreased by 0.16% to 108.845 [2] - The yield on the 30-year government bond rose by 0.75 basis points to 1.869%, and the 10-year government bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.656% [2] International Bond Market Trends - In North America, most U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 4.71 basis points to 3.764% [3] - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased, indicating a mixed sentiment in the international bond markets [3] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had a bid yield of 1.3908% for 185 days, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.97, indicating strong demand [4] - The Export-Import Bank's 3-year fixed-rate bond had a bid yield of 1.4% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.22, reflecting investor interest [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 32.8 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 0.3 basis points to 1.316% [5] Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that while CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, PPI was weaker, indicating a potential bottoming process for prices, but warns of demand-side weakening [6] - CITIC Securities highlights multiple factors affecting the bond market, including concerns over the sustainability of inflation improvements and external demand weakness [7] - Changjiang Fixed Income anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield will continue to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.65%, with potential opportunities in the yield curve [7]

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