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建信期货沥青日报-20250807
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 01:38
Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 7, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply growth of asphalt is relatively limited, and the demand is in the peak season, but the actual performance remains to be observed. Considering the performance of oil prices, it is expected that the unilateral price of asphalt will mainly fluctuate. In terms of arbitrage, consider going long on the crack spread after the upward trend of oil prices slows down [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures market: For BU2509, the opening price was 3527 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3555 yuan/ton, the highest was 3559 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3527 yuan/ton, the increase was 0.34%, and the trading volume was 4.92 million lots. For BU2510, the opening price was 3516 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3529 yuan/ton, the highest was 3530 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3505 yuan/ton, the increase was 0.17%, and the trading volume was 13.44 million lots [6] - Spot market: The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, and Sichuan-Chongqing markets declined, while that in South China market increased, and the prices in other regions remained stable. The overall trend of crude oil prices and asphalt futures was weak, and the spot market of asphalt was filled with strong wait-and-see sentiment [6] - Supply: Qilu Petrochemical, Henan Fengli, and Jiangsu Xinhai will resume asphalt production in early August, and the plant operating rate will rebound at the beginning of the month. The total planned asphalt production of domestic refineries in August is 2.433 million tons [6] - Demand: It is expected that the demand will continue to recover, but the extent remains to be observed. In August, precipitation in North China and Northeast China is still relatively high, but the overall weather conditions have improved. Coupled with the rush demand of some projects, it is generally beneficial to demand [6] 2. Industry News - Shandong market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 Grade A asphalt was 3550 - 3970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. International oil prices and asphalt futures continued to be weak, and downstream receiving sentiment was cautious. Refineries and traders continued to lower their quotes, driving down the market price. The maintenance of Lanqiao Petrochemical was postponed, and some refineries planned to switch to asphalt production, so the supply of resources in Shandong was relatively abundant [8] - South China market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 Grade A asphalt was 3580 - 3630 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The asphalt futures price fluctuated at a low level, and there were low-price contract resources traded by spot-futures traders. In addition, Jingbo Hainan warehouse released forward contracts, and the market contract volume was relatively abundant. However, there was concentrated rainfall in South China recently, and the rigid demand was weak. Traders mainly held up prices, and the spot quotation was 3580 - 3600 yuan/ton [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides data charts on asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt crack spread, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][14][20]
原油成品油早报-20250806
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 03:47
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - This week, oil prices rose and then fell, with the month spreads of the three major crude oil markets increasing. Trump issued a secondary tariff warning to Russia. If Russia does not agree to a major peace agreement with Ukraine, a 100% tariff will be imposed on countries buying Russian oil, which makes the market worried about a decline in global crude oil supply. Although Russian crude oil exports have decreased, even in the case of extreme sanctions, it will not change the oversupply pattern. The market tends to think that the near - end month spreads will strengthen, and take a wait - and - see attitude towards medium - term absolute prices. [6] - OPEC decided to increase the oil production increase in September and implement a production adjustment of 547,000 barrels per day starting from September. With OPEC's "guaranteed production commitment", oil prices dropped rapidly, and Brent crude oil fell below the $70 per barrel mark. [6] - Macroscopically, Trump postponed the effective time of the 15% - 41% reciprocal tariffs on goods exported to the US from 67 trading partners by one week, giving countries a window period for negotiation. The July non - farm payrolls data was disappointing, the market employment deteriorated, and the market urgently bet on a rate cut in September. [6] - Fundamentally, global oil stocks decreased slightly this week, about 2% higher than the same period last year. US commercial inventories increased significantly, the number of oil rigs decreased again, gasoline stocks decreased while diesel stocks increased. Global refinery profits declined this week, and the refinery operation is coming to an end. The absolute price of oil is expected to continue to fall after OPEC+'s statement, but there is still support in reality. It is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - From July 30 to August 5, 2025, WTI crude oil price dropped from $70.00 to $65.16, a decrease of $4.84; BRENT crude oil price dropped from $73.24 to $67.64, a decrease of $5.60; DUBAI crude oil price dropped from $70.85 to $69.56, a decrease of $1.29. [3] - During the same period, SC decreased by 5.50, OMAN decreased by 1.28, domestic gasoline decreased by 60.00, and Japan naphtha CFR decreased by 7.61. [3][14] 2. Daily News - Trump is preparing to impose new sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet. He will decide whether to impose sanctions on countries buying Russian energy after the meeting with Russia on Wednesday. There is a high possibility of imposing a 100% oil tariff on Russia, but the result is undetermined. [3][4] - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending August 1 was - 4.233 million barrels, compared with an expected - 1.845 million barrels and a previous value of 1.539 million barrels. [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending July 25, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.157 million barrels per day to 2.698 million barrels per day, while domestic crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels to 13.314 million barrels per day. [5] - In the same week, US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.136 million barrels per day, an increase of 160,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week; commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.698 million barrels to 427 million barrels, an increase of 1.84%. [5][6][16] - The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 238,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.801 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.55%. [16]
原油月报:EIA和IEA上调2025年供给预期-20250805
Xinda Securities· 2025-08-05 08:05
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The EIA and IEA have raised their global oil supply forecasts for 2025, with predictions of 10510.89 million barrels per day and 10460.15 million barrels per day respectively, reflecting an increase from 2024 [2][33] - Global oil demand is projected to increase in 2025, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecasting demand at 10368.24 million barrels per day, 10353.85 million barrels per day, and 10510.00 million barrels per day respectively [2][33] - Oil prices have shown a decline in the first half of 2025, with Brent crude down by 9.77% and WTI down by 10.78% since the beginning of the year [3][9] Summary by Sections Oil Supply - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply for 2025 at 10510.89, 10460.15, and 10396.00 million barrels per day respectively, with year-on-year increases of +209.60, +180.46, and +161.06 million barrels per day [2][33] - For Q3 2025, the predicted supply increases are +251.25, +226.71, and +171.59 million barrels per day [33] Oil Demand - The demand forecasts for 2025 are 10368.24 million barrels per day (IEA), 10353.85 million barrels per day (EIA), and 10510.00 million barrels per day (OPEC), with increases from 2024 of +70.42, +79.72, and +126.00 million barrels per day respectively [2][33] Oil Prices - As of July 23, 2025, Brent crude is priced at 68.51 USD/barrel, WTI at 65.25 USD/barrel, with respective declines of -2.85% and -4.76% over the past month [3][9] Oil Inventory - Predictions for global oil inventory changes in 2025 are +142.65 million barrels per day (IEA), +106.29 million barrels per day (EIA), and -114.00 million barrels per day (OPEC), with an average change of +44.98 million barrels per day [28][2] Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina [4]
原油周报:美对俄可能施压二级制裁,油价整体走高 | 投研报告
Group 1: Oil Price Overview - As of the week ending August 1, 2025, oil prices have generally increased, influenced by a trade agreement between the US and Europe, and concerns over tightening supply due to potential sanctions on Russian oil buyers [2][3] - Brent crude futures settled at $69.67 per barrel, up $2.01 per barrel (+2.97%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $67.33 per barrel, up $2.17 per barrel (+3.33%) [1][2] Group 2: Oil Supply and Demand in the US - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.314 million barrels per day, an increase of 41,000 barrels per day from the previous week [3] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US decreased by 5 to 410 rigs as of August 1, 2025, while the number of hydraulic fracturing fleets decreased by 1 to 167 [3] - US refinery crude processing volume was 16.911 million barrels per day, down 25,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 95.40%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [3] Group 3: US Oil Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, total US crude oil inventory increased by 7.936 million barrels (+0.97%) to 829 million barrels, with strategic oil inventory rising by 238,000 barrels (+0.06%) and commercial crude inventory increasing by 7.698 million barrels (+1.84%) [3] - Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory rose by 690,000 barrels (+3.16%) to 22.553 million barrels [3] Group 4: Related Companies - Relevant companies in the oil sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [4]
“欧佩克+”同意大幅增产石油,券商:远期累库预期限制油价上行高度
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-08-04 01:52
公开数据显示,7月Brent、WTI月均价分别为69.5、67.2美元/桶,环比分别下降0.4%、0.7%;库存端,截至7月25日当周,美国商业原油库存量 42669万桶,较6月底增加774万桶。 银河证券还指出,近期地缘不确定事件叠加消费旺季给予油价底部支撑,但远期累库预期限制油价上行高度;中期来看,原油消费需求与全球经 济走向密切相关。IMF7月发布《世界经济展望报告》,预计2025年和2026年世界经济将分别增长3.0%和3.1%,较今年4月预测值分别上调0.2和0.1 个百分点。据此预计近期Brent原油价格将在68-72美元/桶区间震荡运行。(闻辉) 【环球网财经综合报道】日前,"欧佩克+"同意9月大幅增产石油,提前一年完成当前供应恢复计划,以夺回全球原油市场份额。其代表称,沙特 等伙伴视频会议达成一致,9月增产约54.8万桶/日,将完全逆转2023年8国220万桶/日减产,含阿联酋额外配额。 对此银河证券撰文分析认为,7月5日OPEC+八个主要成员国计划8月份增产石油54.8万桶/日,为该组织连续4个月宣布增产计划,驱动全球原油供 应预期上移。 ...
石油石化行业:原油价格上涨明显,中国原油出口数量大幅提升
Dongxing Securities· 2025-08-01 08:55
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the oil and petrochemical sector, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [3][61]. Core Insights - Significant increases in crude oil prices have been observed, with Brent crude futures settling at $72.51 per barrel, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.25%. WTI crude futures settled at $69.21 per barrel, up 6.30% from the previous month [1][7][11]. - China's crude oil export volume has surged dramatically, with a month-on-month increase of 611.63%, reaching 1,260,301.9 tons [2][49]. - The operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries has risen to 95.4%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a robust refining sector [1][24][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Crude Oil Prices - Brent crude futures price increased to $72.51 per barrel, a rise of $4.90 per barrel or 7.25% month-on-month. WTI crude futures price reached $69.21 per barrel, up $4.10 per barrel or 6.30% [7][9][11]. 2. Supply and Demand - OPEC's crude oil production increased to 27,235 thousand barrels per day in June, a month-on-month rise of 219 thousand barrels per day, or 0.81% [21][24]. - U.S. refinery crude oil production rose to 17.25 million barrels per day, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.48 million barrels per day, or 2.86% [24]. 3. Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventory increased to 1,660,512 thousand barrels, a month-on-month rise of 17,667 thousand barrels, or 1.08% [34][38]. 4. Imports and Exports - In June, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6,115.50 thousand barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 2.53%. Conversely, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 5.71% to an average of 3,555.50 thousand barrels per day [2][43][49]. - China's crude oil imports rose to 4,989,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 329,000 tons, or 7.06% [43][47].
【环球财经】美国要求缩短俄乌和平协议50天期限 国际油价28日明显上涨
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-28 23:05
Group 1 - International oil prices increased significantly, with light crude oil futures rising by $1.55 to $66.71 per barrel, a 2.38% increase, and Brent crude oil futures up by $1.60 to $70.04 per barrel, a 2.34% increase [1] - The U.S. and EU reached a trade agreement that imposes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S., while steel, aluminum, and copper products from the EU will continue to face a 50% tariff [2] - The EU plans to invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S. during Trump's second term, with expectations to purchase $750 billion in energy products from the U.S. by 2028 [2] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the U.S.-EU trade agreement removes a layer of uncertainty, shifting focus back to fundamental market conditions [2] - The OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries emphasized the importance of adhering to production policies and submitting updated compensation reduction plans by August 15 for those not fully compliant [2]
原油成品油早报-20250724
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 08:04
原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/24 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT(EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/07/17 | 67.54 | 69.52 | 70.24 | - | 1.00 | -1.98 | 1.58 | 217.04 | 21.64 | 246.46 | 33.99 | | 2025/07/18 | 67.34 | 69.28 | 70.17 | - | 0.88 | -1.94 | 1.71 | 215.34 | 21.16 | 245.30 | 33.75 | | 2025/07/21 | 6 ...
原油成品油早报-20250717
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 13:39
Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on crude oil and refined oil, released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on July 17, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The month spreads of the three major crude oil markets were oscillating at high levels. Policy-wise, the US plans to impose new tariffs on over 20 countries starting August 1st, and other trading partners may face a 15% - 20% comprehensive tariff. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of production increases from October. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased this week. US oil drilling decreased by 1, while fracturing increased. Refinery profits in Europe and the US strengthened week-on-week. The supply - demand contradiction in European diesel was prominent. The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China were neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation in China and a decline in refinery profits. In the peak refinery season, the month spreads of crude oil are expected to remain oscillating at high levels. WTI and Brent are stronger than the Dubai market. The absolute price faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies. The suspension of production increase by OPEC+ in the fourth quarter does not change the situation. Attention should be paid to non - OPEC production and the change slope of demand after the peak season [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil Prices**: From July 10 - 16, 2025, WTI prices changed from $66.57 to $66.38 (a decrease of $0.14), BRENT from $68.64 to $68.52 (a decrease of $0.19), and DUBAI from $69.81 to $69.93 (an increase of $0.07) [3] - **Product Prices**: Domestic gasoline prices decreased by $30.00 from July 10 - 16, 2025. Japan's naphtha CFR price and related spreads also showed certain changes, and Singapore's fuel oil 380CST premium increased by 1.55 [3] 3.2 Daily News - **US Shale Oil**: As WTI prices hover around $65, US shale oil drillers are scaling back operations. The slowdown is considered temporary, but tariffs and uncertainties are suppressing drilling activities [3] - **India's Oil Strategy**: In the first half of 2025, India's crude oil imports from Russia increased by 1% to about 1.75 million barrels per day. However, the discount of Urals crude to Brent has narrowed to $1.70 - 2 per barrel. The EU is discussing the 18th round of sanctions on Russia, which may lower the price cap to $45 [4] - **Saudi Arabia's Production Reporting**: Saudi Arabia adopted a new measurement standard to report June's crude oil production, making it meet the quota requirements. Its actual production was 9.75 million barrels per day, while the "market supply" was 9.36 million barrels per day [4] - **Iraq's Oil Production**: Drone attacks in Iraqi Kurdistan reduced oil production by 140,000 - 150,000 barrels per day [4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - **US Data**: In the week of July 11, US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day; domestic production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels (a 0.91% decrease); strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels (a 0.07% decrease); commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 366,000 barrels per day to 6.379 million barrels per day; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.262 million barrels per day, a 1.1% decrease from the same period last year [4][5] - **China Data**: This week, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. China's gasoline and diesel production both increased, with diesel inventory accumulation. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries decreased week - on - week [5]
印度石油部长:如果原油价格保持在当前水平,印度可能会下调燃油价格。
news flash· 2025-07-17 09:38
Core Viewpoint - The Indian Oil Minister indicated that if crude oil prices remain at current levels, India may consider reducing fuel prices [1] Group 1 - The Indian government is monitoring crude oil prices closely and is open to adjusting fuel prices accordingly [1] - Current crude oil price levels are a significant factor influencing the decision on fuel price adjustments in India [1]