信达证券近日发布原油周报：截至12月5日，布伦特、WTI油价分别为63.75、60.08美元/桶。本周（12 月1日-12月5日），美俄举行会晤，被袭击的里海管道石油设施恢复，上周美国原油、成品油累库，不 利市场；但会晤并未达成协议，且俄罗斯"友谊"管道遭袭击，对市场形成支撑，国际油价先跌后涨。总 体看，受地缘因素影响，本周油价震荡小幅上涨。 以下为研究报告摘要： 来源：中国能源网 【美国原油需求】截至2025年11月28日当周，美国炼厂原油加工量为1687.6万桶/天，较上周增加43.3万 桶/天，美国炼厂开工率为94.10%，较上周上升1.8pct。 【美国原油库存】截至2025年11月28日当周，美国原油总库存为8.39亿桶，较上周增加82.4万桶 （+0.10%）；战略原油库存为4.12亿桶，较上周增加25.0万桶（+0.06%）；商业原油库存为4.28亿桶， 较上周增加57.4万桶（+0.13%）；库欣地区原油库存为2129.6万桶，较上周减少45.7万桶（-2.10%）。 【美国成品油库存】截至2025年11月28日当周，美国汽油总体、车用汽油、柴油、航空煤油库存分别为 21442.2、1494. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices experienced slight fluctuations due to geopolitical factors, with Brent and WTI prices reaching $63.75 and $60.08 per barrel, respectively, as of December 5, 2025 [2][9]. - The report highlights an increase in U.S. crude oil production to 13.815 million barrels per day, with active drilling rigs rising to 413 [40]. - The refining capacity utilization in the U.S. increased to 94.10%, indicating strong demand for crude oil processing [51]. - The report identifies key companies in the sector, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of December 5, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $63.75 per barrel, up $1.37 (+2.20%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $60.08 per barrel, an increase of $1.53 (+2.61%) [26]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms increased to 368, with a net addition of 2 platforms, while floating drilling platforms rose to 130 [29]. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production reached 13.815 million barrels per day, with a slight increase of 0.1 million barrels per day from the previous week [40]. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume increased to 16.876 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 94.10% [51]. Crude Oil Inventory - As of November 28, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 839 million barrels, reflecting a weekly increase of 824,000 barrels (+0.10%) [60]. Refined Oil Prices - In the North American market, as of December 5, 2025, average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $97.93, $77.61, and $87.74 per barrel, respectively [82].

Core Insights - International precious metals futures experienced a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.24% to $4265.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 2.25% to $58.45 per ounce [1] - Spot silver prices reached a historic high, surpassing $58 per ounce for the first time, peaking at $58.84, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100%, significantly outperforming gold [1] - COMEX silver futures traded above $59 per ounce for the first time, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver contract hit a new high of 13766 yuan per kilogram [1] - A report indicated that silver prices surged due to supply shortages exacerbated by trading interruptions, with a previous trading day seeing a price increase of up to 6% [1] Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are contributing to a decline in the dollar, while the EU's energy interconnectivity plan is boosting industrial demand [3] - Geopolitical factors are also supporting the precious metals market, with silver standing out due to its dual role as both a financial and industrial asset [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations**: The divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December has increased, with dovish officials citing a weak labor market as support for cuts, while hawkish officials express concerns over inflation rebound, leading to increased policy uncertainty [1][3][4][5] - **Domestic Macro Economy**: The LPR remained unchanged in November, indicating that the central bank believes there is still room for monetary policy, but the marginal efficiency is declining, making further easing unlikely this year [1][7][8] Commodity Market Insights - **Black Commodities**: There is a significant divergence in the performance of black commodities. Coal and coke prices have dropped sharply, with coking coal down 9% and coke over 4%. In contrast, iron ore has shown relative strength, increasing by approximately 1.2% [1][9][12] - **Iron Ore Market**: Iron ore has performed better than other commodities recently, but with increased shipments and port arrivals, supply-demand conflicts may intensify, leading to potential price volatility in the short term [1][12] - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market remains weak, with the gold-silver ratio hovering around 81. Factors such as internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have limited upward momentum for gold [1][15] - **Oil Market**: The oil market is under pressure from a mid-term supply surplus, with IEA predicting continued oversupply in global oil markets this year and next, leading to a bearish outlook for oil prices [1][20] Specific Commodity Analysis - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is facing increased supply due to domestic production recovery and rising imports from Mongolia. The coke market is also under pressure, with limited price increases expected [1][13][14] - **Steel Market**: The rebar and hot-rolled coil markets are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent data showing improvements in both supply and demand, although overall market sentiment remains cautious [1][10][11] - **Nonferrous Metals**: The nonferrous metals market is generally weak, with copper prices expected to remain volatile but high. The aluminum market faces seasonal inventory increases, limiting upward price potential [1][17] - **New Energy Materials**: The polysilicon and industrial silicon markets are weak, while lithium carbonate prices have risen unexpectedly due to improved fundamentals, although risks of price declines remain [1][18][19] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment is cautious due to mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties, impacting various commodity prices and investor strategies [1][6][17] - **Future Expectations**: The outlook for many commodities remains uncertain, with potential for volatility driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1][20][21][25]

Summary of Conference Call on VLCC Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) market, which is significantly influenced by geopolitical events, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, reshaping global oil trade patterns [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Impact of Geopolitical Events - The Russia-Ukraine conflict has shifted Russian oil exports from Europe to the Middle East, India, and the US, increasing transportation distances and average voyage lengths, which in turn raises freight rates [1][5][12]. - The EU's sanctions on Russian oil and the price cap policy have further extended shipping distances, contributing to higher overall freight rates [1][5]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - VLCC effective capacity has contracted significantly, with a tracked volume of 67 vessels last week, above the average of 50-70 vessels this year [2][4]. - The available VLCC positions in the Middle East for the next 30 days have decreased to 121 vessels, indicating a tight supply situation [2][4]. - Demand for VLCCs is expected to remain strong due to seasonal factors and trade restructuring, although a potential adjustment period may follow the peak season in Q4 [8][15]. 3. Freight Rate Trends - Current freight rates are at elevated levels, with the TD3C route (Middle East to East) TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) reaching $140,000 per day, significantly higher than the average of $51,000 per day earlier this year [4]. - One-year VLCC charter rates have increased from around $50,000 to $56,000-$57,000 per day, reflecting market confidence in sustained high demand [4][8]. 4. Future Market Outlook - The VLCC market is expected to face a tightening supply situation due to limited new ship deliveries, with only one new vessel expected in 2024 and 5-6 in 2025 [9][11]. - The effective capacity growth is projected to be limited to under 2% over the next three years due to the aging fleet and insufficient new orders [9][11]. - The market anticipates that even in a downturn, freight rates will not drop significantly below $40,000 per day due to the elevated bottom price levels established [8][16]. 5. Role of Shadow Fleets - Shadow fleets, comprising 17%-20% of the global fleet, are facing increased scrutiny due to sanctions, which may lead to a reduction in their operational capacity and a return of demand to compliant VLCCs [10][14]. - The aging of these shadow vessels poses safety risks, and any significant incidents could lead to a sudden contraction in effective supply [10][14]. 6. New Ship Orders and Market Balance - The current order volume for VLCCs is at a historical low of about 12.8% of the existing fleet, indicating cautious behavior from shipowners [11]. - A significant increase in new orders could lead to oversupply, particularly if it exceeds the 25% threshold of the fleet size [11][20]. 7. Long-term Industry Outlook - The industry is expected to navigate a strong cyclical window over the next 2-3 years, balancing supply responses, demand resilience, and geopolitical developments [20]. - Scenarios include rapid retirement of aging vessels and escalating sanctions, which are more likely than uncontrolled new orders or unexpected energy transitions [20]. Additional Important Insights - The effective capacity of VLCCs is not just a function of the number of vessels but also their operational efficiency and compliance with regulations [9][10]. - The geopolitical landscape is seen as a short-term amplifier of market conditions rather than a long-term driver, with structural issues like fleet aging and insufficient new orders being more critical [12][20].

Report Overview - Report Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Crude Oil Futures: Supply Glut, Geopolitical Instability - Author: Shi Xiuming - Investment Consultation Qualification Number: F0255552 - Email: shixiuming@nzfco.com Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - International oil prices fluctuated slightly in the week ending November 14, 2025. The prices rose in the first half of the week due to factors such as increased Chinese crude oil imports in October, a weaker US dollar, and the US government's progress in ending the shutdown, as well as ongoing sanctions on Russia and infrastructure attacks in Ukraine. However, they declined in the second half after the OPEC monthly report forecast a supply glut [2]. - Despite the downward pressure from the overall supply glut in the crude oil market, geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Russia and attacks on energy facilities introduce uncertainties and partially offset the downward pressure, leading to a volatile and fluctuating price trend in the short - term. Traders should pay attention to the resistance level of 470 yuan/barrel for the 01 contract [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - As of November 14, 2025, SC2601, Brent, and WTI oil prices were 463.6 yuan/barrel, 64.39, and 59.39 US dollars/barrel respectively. SC2601 and Brent prices rose slightly from the previous weekend, while WTI fell slightly [2]. Key Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors, weekly crude oil data, and India's procurement policies [3] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Crude Oil | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 463.60 | 460.60 | 3 | 0.89% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 65.19 | 65.12 | -0.07 | -0.08% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 64.29 | 63.70 | 0.59 | 0.93% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 59.81 | 59.67 | -0.03 | -0.05% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels/day | 13862 | 13651 | 211 | 1.55% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 427581 | 421168 | 6413 | 1.52% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 704 | 528 | 171 | 33.33% | Weekly | [4] Market Data Charts - Multiple charts are provided to show the prices of different crude oil products (SC, Oman, Brent, WTI), their spreads, as well as relationships with factors like the US dollar index. Also, charts display supply (OPEC and US production, US rig counts), inventory (OECD and US inventories), demand (refinery inputs, utilization rates in the US, China, Europe, and India), and cost - profit (refinery profits) aspects [6][12][18][25][33]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core View - Copper prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the Shanghai Copper main contract operating in the range of 85,800 - 87,400 yuan/ton and LME Copper 3M in the range of 10,720 - 11,000 US dollars/ton [4] - Aluminum prices are strongly supported. Although the short - term rise has slowed down, if domestic inventories can be effectively reduced, the prices may strengthen further after consolidation. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract is expected to operate in the range of 21,650 - 22,000 yuan/ton and LME Aluminum 3M in the range of 2,830 - 2,890 US dollars/ton [6] - Lead prices are expected to slow down in growth and enter a volatile state [8] - Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [10] - Tin prices are expected to be mainly in a strong and volatile state, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and overseas LME Tin in the range of 37,000 - 39,000 US dollars/ton [12] - Nickel prices are under fundamental pressure. The short - term decline space is expected to be limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. If the nickel - iron price stabilizes and the nickel price drops enough (around 115,000 yuan/ton), light - position long positions can be gradually established. The short - term Shanghai Nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton, and LME Nickel 3M in the range of 14,500 - 15,000 US dollars/ton [15][16] - For lithium carbonate, the current market contradiction is concentrated on the demand side. The short - term upside space may be limited without continuous driving forces. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in lithium - battery materials in December, battery production in the first quarter, and the equity market atmosphere. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is expected to operate in the range of 85,300 - 89,900 yuan/ton [19] - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22] - Stainless steel prices are expected to continue the downward trend under the background of high supply, weak demand, and insufficient cost support [25] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to continue to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term [28] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: Fed rate - cut expectations weakened, leading to a correction in precious - metal prices. On Friday, copper prices declined and then rebounded. LME Copper 3M contract closed down 0.12% at 10,846 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 86,680 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories decreased by 450 to 135,725 tons. The proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M changed from a discount to a slight premium. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories decreased week - on - week, and warehouse receipts increased by 0.6 to 50,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai rose to 55 yuan/ton, and the trading sentiment warmed up. Inventories in Guangdong decreased, and the spot premium was 15 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 3,480 yuan/ton, narrowing week - on - week [3] - **Strategy View**: The US government reopened, but there are some headwinds at the geopolitical level. The impact on sentiment is expected to be limited. In terms of the industry, the supply of copper raw materials remains tight. After the price correction, the spot market has improved marginally. The short - term pressure on refined copper inventory accumulation is not large, and copper prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend [4] Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Friday, market risk appetite weakened, and aluminum prices declined. LME Aluminum closed down 0.64% at 2,858 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 21,795 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai Aluminum weighted contract decreased by 4.4 to 784,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 65,000 tons. Domestic inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods fluctuated and declined. The market trading was still poor. The spot price of electrolytic aluminum in East China was at par with the futures, and downstream buyers mainly made rigid - demand purchases. LME aluminum inventories decreased by 0.1 to 552,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and the Cash/3M discount widened [5] - **Strategy View**: The reopening of the US government, combined with the expectation of tight overseas supply and low domestic inventories, led to a significant increase in positions and a sharp rise in Shanghai Aluminum. Currently, domestic aluminum - ingot inventories are relatively volatile, and overseas aluminum inventories are still at a low level, strongly supporting aluminum prices. Although the short - term decline in market risk appetite has slowed down the rise of aluminum prices, if domestic inventories can be effectively reduced, aluminum prices still have the hope of further strengthening after consolidation [6] Lead - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Lead index closed down 0.91% at 17,501 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 123,600 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Lead 3S fell 20.5 to 2,068 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 158,500 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,425 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,325 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 100 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric - vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead - ingot futures inventory was 31,000 tons, the domestic basis was - 280 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts was - 50 yuan/ton. LME lead - ingot inventories were 224,000 tons, and LME lead - ingot cancelled warrants were 95,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 24.26 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 94.4 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.193, and the lead - ingot import profit and loss was - 315.86 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventories slightly increased to 40,900 tons [7] - **Strategy View**: Lead - ore inventories increased slightly, but the TC of lead concentrates continued to decline. Waste - battery inventories increased slightly, and the supply of domestic lead raw materials remained tight. The profits of primary and secondary smelting were good, the operating rate of primary smelting remained high, and the operating rate of secondary smelting continued to rise. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises improved marginally. Overall, domestic lead - ingot social inventories increased marginally. Last week, lead prices tried to break through the 17,800 - yuan level again. However, with the hawkish remarks of Fed officials, the sentiment in the precious - metal and non - ferrous - metal markets declined, and the main long - position holders quickly reduced their positions. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Lead changed from long to short. It is expected that the growth rate of lead prices will slow down, and the prices will enter a volatile state [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Zinc index closed down 1.39% at 22,455 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 226,700 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Zinc 3S fell 63 to 3,026 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 228,200 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,490 yuan/ton, the basis in Shanghai was - 30 yuan/ton, the basis in Tianjin was - 70 yuan/ton, the basis in Guangdong was - 60 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 30 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc - ingot futures inventory was 71,800 tons, the domestic basis in Shanghai was - 30 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts was - 55 yuan/ton. LME zinc - ingot inventories were 37,800 tons, and LME zinc - ingot cancelled warrants were 3,900 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was 121.49 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 49.15 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.048, and the zinc - ingot import profit and loss was - 4,292.04 yuan/ton. According to Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals data, domestic social inventories slightly decreased to 157,900 tons [9] - **Strategy View**: Zinc - ore inventories increased slightly, but zinc ore remained in short supply during the winter stockpiling period of smelters. The TC of zinc concentrates continued to decline, and the profits of zinc smelting were damaged. The supply of zinc ingots decreased marginally. The downstream operating rate remained stable, and the growth of domestic zinc - ingot social inventories slowed down. In the LME market, zinc - ingot warrants slowly increased, and the LME zinc monthly spread decreased marginally. With the hawkish remarks of Fed officials last Friday, the sentiment in the precious - metal and non - ferrous - metal markets declined, and the main long - position holders quickly reduced their positions. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc quickly declined. It is expected that zinc prices will be weak in the short term [10] Tin - **Market Information**: On November 14, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 291,450 yuan/ton, down 2.24% from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts of Shanghai Futures Exchange futures increased by 234 tons to 5,498 tons. The upstream 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was quoted at 280,100 yuan/ton, down 3,900 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of supply, with the end of the seasonal maintenance of large smelters in Yunnan, the operating rates of tin - ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces have stabilized, but the overall operating level is still at a historical low. The core reason is that the problem of tight supply of tin - ore raw materials has not been fundamentally resolved. Although the mining licenses in the Wa State of Myanmar have been approved, affected by the rainy season and the slow actual resumption of production, the export volume of tin ore is still far below the normal level and cannot effectively make up for the supply gap. According to customs data, in September 2025, China's import volume of tin - concentrate physical quantity reached 8,714 tons, a significant decline from the previous month. In terms of demand, although the consumption in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate is slightly weak, the long - term demand expectation brought by emerging fields such as new - energy vehicles and AI servers provides support for tin prices. In October, the operating rate of domestic tin - solder enterprises showed a slight warming trend. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished their inventories on dips [11] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, the supply and demand of tin are in a tight - balance state, and the price is expected to be mainly in a strong and volatile state. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long on dips. The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and overseas LME Tin in the range of 37,000 - 39,000 US dollars/ton [12] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Friday, nickel prices fell sharply. At 3 pm, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 117,080 yuan/ton, down 1.56% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand was relatively strong. The average premium of Russian nickel to the nearby contract was 500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 3,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, the overall trading atmosphere in the nickel - ore market was okay this week, and nickel - ore prices were stable with a slight upward trend. The ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was 52.8 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week; the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore from the Philippines was 58 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. In terms of nickel - iron, prices fell rapidly. The ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 905.5 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 3.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [14] - **Strategy View**: The recent decline in nickel prices is due to the superposition of fundamental pressures. First, refined - nickel inventories have been increasing since October, directly suppressing nickel prices. Second, nickel - iron prices have been falling rapidly since November, and the expectation of RKEF production lines switching to high - grade nickel matte has increased. The supply of refined nickel is expected to increase significantly. In addition, the demand for nickel sulfate is gradually weakening, and with the expected commissioning of the Indonesian MHP project, the supply of refined - nickel raw materials has been further supplemented. Considering that the current profit level of nickel - iron is already at an absolute low, it is expected that the short - term decline space of nickel prices is limited. However, it is also necessary to guard against the negative - feedback risk caused by the decline in nickel - ore prices. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If the nickel - iron price stabilizes and the nickel price drops enough (around 115,000 yuan/ton), light - position long positions can be gradually established. The short - term Shanghai Nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton, and LME Nickel 3M in the range of 14,500 - 15,000 US dollars/ton [15][16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On November 14, the evening quotation of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 86,543 yuan, down 1.14% from the previous working day and up 7.34% for the week. The MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 86,200 - 87,300 yuan, with the average price down 1,000 yuan (- 1.14%) from the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 85,200 - 85,700 yuan, with the average price down 1.16% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2601 contract was 87,360 yuan, down 0.55% from the previous closing price and up 6.15% for the week. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 250 yuan. The CIF price of SMM Australian - imported SC6 lithium concentrate was quoted at 1,040 - 1,070 US dollars/ton, with the average price up 0.48% from the previous day and up 12.23% for the week [18] - **Strategy View**: The current market contradiction is concentrated on the demand side. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles and energy - storage batteries have reached new highs, and the high - level consumption has driven the bullish sentiment in the lithium - battery material and raw - material markets. In the short term, the domestic lithium - carbonate production is approaching the upper limit, the capacity utilization rates of all links in the industrial chain are at the annual peak, the lithium - salt spot is in short supply, and the inventory days have reached the lowest level since data records began. At the same time, the expected accelerated inventory reduction in the market has been fully traded, and the peak season is in

Core Insights - The main point of the article highlights the fluctuations in oil prices influenced by geopolitical factors, with both U.S. and Brent crude oil contracts experiencing slight increases on the day but declines over the week [1] Oil Market Summary - The U.S. oil main contract closed at $59.84 per barrel, reflecting a daily increase of 0.69% but a weekly decline of 1.87% [1] - The Brent crude oil main contract closed at $63.68 per barrel, showing a daily increase of 0.47% and a weekly decline of 1.68% [1] - The oil market is currently experiencing a volatile upward trend due to geopolitical influences [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with international gold prices under pressure from a strong US dollar, while domestic prices in China are rising due to different market dynamics [3][5][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On November 1, 2025, international spot gold opened at $4036.48 per ounce and closed at $4001.93, down $34.59, while domestic gold prices in China rose, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold contract closing at 921.84 yuan per gram, up 0.39% [3]. - The price difference between domestic and international gold has reached a historical high of 205 yuan per gram, with domestic prices significantly higher than international prices when converted to RMB [3]. - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy changes, including a 25 basis point rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening, which theoretically supports gold prices [5][10]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have not led to a significant increase in gold's safe-haven demand, as the market has partially absorbed these risks [5][8]. - The US dollar index has rebounded to 107.64, creating a "see-saw" effect with gold prices, as a stronger dollar typically suppresses gold [5][10]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest that if gold prices fall below $3973 per ounce, there could be further downside potential to $3847 per ounce [9]. - The MACD indicator shows a bearish trend, with the RSI at 44.9, indicating continued short-term downward pressure on gold prices [5][9]. Group 4: Domestic Demand and Supply - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months, reaching 2292 tons by October 2025, a 12% increase year-on-year, supporting domestic gold prices [5][10]. - The domestic gold market is experiencing strong demand, particularly in the context of traditional consumption peaks, although seasonal demand is expected to decline in the coming months [8][14]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to be cautious of high premiums associated with gold jewelry and the potential pitfalls of leveraged trading in gold [12][14]. - The gold recycling market has seen prices fluctuate, with current recovery prices ranging from 888 to 913 yuan per gram, reflecting market volatility [7][14].

Oil Market Overview - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures is $63.4 and $59.3 per barrel, respectively, with increases of $1.4 and $1.0 compared to the previous week [1][2] - U.S. crude oil production stands at 13.63 million barrels per day, showing a decrease of 10,000 barrels per day week-on-week [2] - Active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 2 to a total of 420, while active fracturing fleets rose by 3 to 175 [2] Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory is 830 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 420 million barrels, strategic inventory at 410 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 20 million barrels. Changes from the previous week include decreases of 1.4 million barrels and 0.96 million barrels in total and commercial inventories, respectively, while strategic inventory increased by 0.82 million barrels and Cushing inventory decreased by 0.77 million barrels [1][2] Refinery Activity - U.S. refinery crude processing volume is 15.73 million barrels per day, up by 600,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 88.6%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points [2] Oil Trade Dynamics - U.S. crude oil imports, exports, and net imports are 5.92 million, 4.20 million, and 1.72 million barrels per day, respectively, with imports increasing by 390,000 barrels per day and exports decreasing by 260,000 barrels per day [2] Refined Product Overview - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are $78, $95, and $89 per barrel, respectively, with week-on-week changes of +$1.1, +$2.0, and -$5.1 [3] - Refined product inventories for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are 220 million, 120 million, and 40 million barrels, respectively, with decreases of 2.15 million, 1.48 million, and 1.49 million barrels week-on-week [4] - Production levels for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are 959, 463, and 164 thousand barrels per day, with increases of 24, 4, and decreases of 7 thousand barrels per day, respectively [5] Refined Product Demand and Trade - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is 845, 385, and 172 thousand barrels per day, with no change in gasoline, a decrease of 39 thousand barrels per day in diesel, and an increase of 3 thousand barrels per day in jet fuel [6] - Gasoline imports, exports, and net exports are 80, 1.21 million, and 1.14 million barrels per day, with changes of -30, +190, and +230 thousand barrels per day, respectively [6] Recommended Companies - Companies recommended for investment include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC Services, and others [6]