Group 1: Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit and government bond issuance scale are expected to increase in 2026 to support economic activities during the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The fiscal deficit is projected to be no less than 4.06 trillion yuan, maintaining a deficit rate of at least 4% [3] - New special bonds may rise from 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025 to nearly 5 trillion yuan in 2026 to support major project construction [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose to promote reasonable price recovery, with a CPI target set around 2% for 2026 [4] - Traditional monetary policy tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions will have flexible timing and rhythm [4] - Structural monetary policies will focus on expanding domestic demand, supporting technological innovation, and aiding small and medium enterprises [4] Group 3: Consumption and Income - Expanding domestic demand, particularly boosting consumption, is a primary task for 2026 [5] - The "Urban and Rural Residents Income Increase Plan" aims to enhance consumer capacity and willingness [6] - Policies will be optimized to adapt to changing consumption structures, directing subsidies towards service consumption areas [6] Group 4: Investment and Infrastructure - Fixed asset investment growth is targeted to stabilize, with infrastructure investment expected to accelerate due to new major projects [7] - Government investment will increase through various funding sources, including special bonds and policy financial tools [7] - Manufacturing investment, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing, is anticipated to grow rapidly [7] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The real estate market will focus on "de-stocking" as a primary task, with policies to support both supply and demand [8] - Local governments will adjust real estate policies to remove unreasonable purchase restrictions and enhance housing fund support [8] - Efforts will be made to improve the market supply-demand relationship through better management of existing properties [8] Group 6: Capital Market Reforms - Comprehensive reforms in the capital market will focus on supporting technological innovation and enhancing market inclusivity [9][10] - Policies will aim to create a multi-layered market system to meet diverse investor needs and promote long-term investments [10] - Regulatory measures will be strengthened to prevent financial misconduct and enhance market stability [10] Group 7: Unified Market and Competition - The construction of a unified national market will accelerate, with new regulations to address "involution" in competition [11] - Capacity regulation in key industries will be enhanced to phase out outdated capacities and support new quality capacities [11] - Local government economic activities will be standardized to prevent irregularities in investment incentives [11] Group 8: Technological and Industrial Innovation - The integration of technological and industrial innovation will be a key focus, with an emphasis on practical applications of new technologies [12] - The expansion of international technology innovation centers in major regions will facilitate resource integration and innovation [12] - Regional coordinated development will be promoted to enhance new quality productivity across different areas [12] Group 9: State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - A new round of state-owned enterprise reforms will focus on optimizing the layout of state-owned economies and modernizing corporate governance [13][14] - Strategic mergers and acquisitions will be promoted to enhance resource allocation efficiency [14] - Digital transformation initiatives will be launched to support innovation in key industries [14] Group 10: Social Welfare and Employment - Employment will be prioritized, with policies aimed at stabilizing jobs and increasing labor income [15] - Measures will include expanding loans for job retention and enhancing unemployment insurance [15] - The income distribution system will be improved to raise labor compensation and establish a more robust social safety net [15]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals generally rose, with only lead and tin declining by 0.66% and 0.45% respectively. Nickel and aluminum both increased by over 2%, with nickel rising 2.44% to a new high of 135,570 yuan/ton, and aluminum up 2.25% to 23,030 yuan/ton, marking the highest since March 2022 [1] - In the external market, base metals mostly fell, with only London aluminum and lead rising by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. Tin and nickel dropped over 1%, with tin down 1.67% and nickel down 1.47% [1] - Precious metals saw declines, with COMEX gold down 1.16% and silver down 8.66%. Domestic gold and silver also fell by 0.85% and 4.27% respectively [1] Macro Environment - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's manufacturing PMI for December was 50.1%, indicating a recovery in economic activity. The new orders index rose to 50.8%, and the production index increased to 51.7%, reflecting positive changes in the manufacturing sector [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a total of approximately 295 billion yuan for early-stage construction projects and central budget investments for 2026, aimed at stabilizing investment [6] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 502.8 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [7] - The USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.0288, with the dollar index rising 0.09% to 98.31. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated a potential for future rate cuts if inflation decreases as expected [8] Oil Market - Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell slightly, with WTI down 0.1% and Brent down 0.11%. Analysts predict a nearly 20% decline in oil prices in 2025, with Brent potentially experiencing the longest annual decline in history due to oversupply [11] - OPEC+ is expected to pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026, with analysts forecasting that supply will exceed demand, leading to further price drops [11]

制造业生产经营活动预期指数创去年4月以来新高。 国家统计局12月31日发布的数据显示，12月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个 百分点，在连续8个月运行在50%以下后升至扩张区间。 中国物流信息中心文韬分析，前期推出的各项经济政策继续落实发力，中央经济工作会议明确指出实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策，有效提振了市场信心，加上大量企业制定新年规划进入细化与落实阶段，以 及春节备货重要节点临近，制造业市场需求有所释放。 需求端释放以及政策预期向好带动制造业企业生产活动较好扩张，生产指数为51.7%，较上月上升1.7个 百分点，指数升幅较为明显。 价格方面，12月原材料价格增势有所放缓，购进价格指数为53.1%，较上月下降0.5个百分点。主要集中 在高耗能行业和消费品制造业，两大行业的购进价格指数分别较上月下降2.3个和0.8个百分点，原因是 部分重要基础原材料价格有所下行，带动相关产业原材料价格增势放缓。 制造业产成品价格在需求释放的带动下趋稳运行，出厂价格指数为48.9%，较上月上升0.7个百分点，连 续2个月上升，且装备制造业、高技术制造业和高耗能行业的出厂价格指数均较上月有所上升。 ...

作为习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的重要组成部分，习近平经济思想是运用马克思主义政治 经济学基本原理指导新时代经济发展实践形成的重大理论成果，是新时代我国经济工作的科学行动指 南。"十四五"时期我国发展历程极不寻常、极不平凡。在习近平经济思想指引下，我国经受住世纪疫情 冲击，有效应对一系列重大风险挑战，高质量发展扎实推进，中国式现代化迈出新的坚实步伐。"事非 经过不知难，成如容易却艰辛。"这些发展成就的取得，来自系统全面的战略谋划、坚决果断的政策实 施、科学有效的工作方法，充分彰显了习近平经济思想的科学真理性和实践引领力，更加坚定了我们开 拓进取、攻坚克难、推动经济行稳致远的决心和信心。 指引深化经济发展规律性认识，确保中国经济航船沿着正确方向破浪前行 习近平总书记指出："要加强党对经济工作的领导，深化对社会主义经济建设规律的认识"。"十四 五"时期，面对错综复杂的国际形势和艰巨繁重的国内改革发展稳定任务，习近平总书记始终以马克思 主义政治家、思想家、战略家的历史主动精神、非凡理论勇气、卓越政治智慧、强烈使命担当推进理论 创新，在顺应时代之变、回答时代之问中，在引领时代先声、破解时代难题中，提出一系列新理念 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, with COMEX gold surpassing $4500 per ounce, while silver prices surged due to supply shortage expectations, breaking through $79 per ounce [1] - Platinum prices are increasing due to persistent supply-demand gaps, while palladium prices are experiencing steady growth with significant fluctuations [1] - By 2026, factors such as central bank gold purchases, rising gold ETF holdings, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside a weakening dollar index, are expected to support gold prices [1] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices on the Shanghai exchange have surpassed 100,000 yuan, reaching a historical high due to supply disruptions and low inventory levels in non-US regions [2] - Labor negotiations at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile have raised concerns about copper supply for 2026, while the National Development and Reform Commission encourages mergers among major copper smelting enterprises [2] - Market sentiment and changes in futures microstructure will be crucial for future price movements [2] Group 3: Aluminum - Aluminum prices have reached new highs amid a favorable macroeconomic environment, although the short-term outlook shows weakening fundamentals [2] - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 60.8%, influenced by environmental production restrictions and high aluminum prices [2] - The market is expected to experience a tug-of-war between macroeconomic benefits and weak fundamentals, leading to high volatility in aluminum prices [2] Group 4: Energy Metals - Lithium demand is showing signs of weakening, while production is increasing, leading to a decrease in inventory levels [3] - There are uncertainties regarding the resumption of production at key mines in Jiangxi, which could impact market expectations for lithium supply [3] - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight raw material supply, while downstream demand is cautious, with companies extending their operations into integrated cost advantages [3] Group 5: Rare Earths - Light rare earth prices are recovering, while medium and heavy rare earth prices are maintaining a downward trend [4]

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, emphasizing the urgency of economic research in key areas [2][3] - Experts discussed macroeconomic policies, fiscal reforms, revitalizing existing assets, and building a consumer-friendly financial system as essential topics for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][3] Group 1: Strategic Orientation - The economic development strategy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" should reflect its transitional nature, focusing on foundational work and comprehensive efforts to meet the 2035 modernization goal [3] - Key areas of focus include improving expectation management mechanisms, reforming income distribution systems, and optimizing fiscal structures to enhance investment in both physical and human capital [3] Group 2: Policy Optimization - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," presenting both challenges and long-term supportive conditions for macroeconomic policies [5] - Recommendations include consolidating industrial advantages, maintaining a reasonable manufacturing ratio, and addressing local government challenges in boosting consumption [5] Group 3: Debt and Asset Management - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will see a focus on revitalizing existing economic features, with an emphasis on debt restructuring and optimizing resource allocation [6] - A new framework for understanding debt, assets, and resources is proposed, highlighting the importance of maintaining resource liquidity to create valuable combinations [6] Group 4: Reform and Innovation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" necessitates deepening financial theoretical innovation to support the construction of a financial powerhouse [7] - Emphasis is placed on developing theories that address practical issues in finance, ensuring financial security, and enhancing the foundational role of financial systems in economic development [7] Group 5: Fiscal Policy and Consumer Finance - Fiscal reforms are essential for national governance, requiring alignment with other policies while addressing structural issues in the medium to long term [8] - Building a consumer-friendly financial system is crucial for facilitating domestic circulation, with recommendations for both supply-side financial reforms and demand-side enhancements [8]

2025年12月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：通胀温和回落 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 3 | | 铜：市场情绪偏暖，支撑价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：横盘震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存持续减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 12 | | 氧化铝：持续磨底 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：多头情绪占优 | 14 | | 钯：震荡上行 | 14 | | 镍：盘面资金博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：正极大厂检修，关注回调风险 | 18 | | 工业硅：关注情绪带动 | 20 | | 多晶硅：硅片价格报涨 | 20 | | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 硅铁：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 锰硅：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦炭：震荡反复 | 27 | | 焦煤：震荡反复 | 27 | | 原木：低 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on December 23 and throughout December 2025 [2][4]. - Some futures, such as palladium, platinum, nickel, and tin, are expected to be volatile and weak on December 25, 2025, with palladium futures likely to hit the lower limit [2]. - Several futures, including gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and copper, are expected to reach new highs in December 2025 [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **December 23, 2025 Futures Main Contract Forecast**: The report provides forecasts for multiple futures contracts, including stock index futures (IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603), precious metal futures (AU2602, AG2602, PT2606, PD2606), base metal futures (CU2602, NI2602, SN2602), and commodity futures (LC2605, RB2605, HC2605, I2605, JM2605), with details on trends, resistance levels, and support levels [2]. - **December 2025 Futures Main (Continuous) Contract Forecast**: Similar to the December 23 forecast, it predicts the trends of various futures contracts, adjusting some trends and support/resistance levels [4]. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth - quarter meeting, emphasizing the integrated effect of policies to control the money supply and maintain low financing costs. The central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan [5]. - **Exchange Rate**: The on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar are rising, approaching the 7 mark. Deutsche Bank predicts that the RMB will appreciate to 6.7 against the US dollar by the end of 2026 [5]. - **Industrial Policy**: Two departments issued the 2025 version of the Encouraged Foreign Investment Industry Catalog to guide more foreign investment into specific fields and regions [6]. - **International Trade**: The US plans to impose tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products starting in 2027, and China firmly opposes this and will take countermeasures [6]. - **Housing Policy**: Beijing optimized its housing purchase restriction policy, relaxing conditions for non - local households and providing benefits for multi - child families [7]. - **Infrastructure Finance**: Eight departments jointly issued 21 financial support measures for the construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor [7]. - **Central Enterprise Tasks**: The central enterprise leaders' meeting outlined five key tasks for 2026, including improving the quality of listed companies and market value management [7]. - **Anti - money Laundering**: The Inter - ministerial Joint Conference on Anti - money Laundering emphasized strengthening the regulatory system and maintaining a high - pressure stance [7]. - **Energy and Consumption**: The national energy consumption in November increased by 6.2% year - on - year, with the charging and swapping service industry's consumption increasing by 60.2% [8]. - **International Affairs**: Ukraine announced a "peace plan" draft, but key territorial issues remain unresolved. Elon Musk predicted high - growth rates for the US economy [8]. - **Nuclear Power**: Japan's largest nuclear power plant will restart a unit on January 20, 2026, and Russia plans to build a lunar power station by 2036 [9]. Commodity Futures - related Information - **Domestic Futures Market**: On December 24, platinum and palladium futures hit the upper limit, while gold, silver, and copper futures reached new highs. Silver futures had a large capital inflow, and gold futures had a large capital outflow [9]. - **Exchange Policy**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the minimum order quantity for lithium carbonate futures contracts and set daily open - position limits [10]. - **International Futures Market**: On December 24, international precious metal futures and oil futures showed mixed trends, and London's basic metal futures also had different performances [10][11]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On December 24, various stock index futures contracts showed different trends, with some rising slightly. The report predicts that in December 2025, they will be mostly in a strong - volatile state, and on December 25, they will be in a volatile - consolidation state [12][15][16]. - **Precious Metal Futures** - **Gold**: On December 24, the gold futures main contract AU2602 rose slightly. It is expected to be strongly and widely volatile in December 2025 and reach a new high, while on December 25, it will be weakly volatile [34][35]. - **Silver**: On December 24, the silver futures main contract AG2602 rose significantly. It is expected to be strongly volatile in December 2025 and reach a new high, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile [37][39]. - **Platinum**: On December 24, the platinum futures main contract PT2606 reached the upper limit. It is expected to be strongly volatile in December 2025 and reach a new high, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile and may hit the lower limit [46]. - **Palladium**: On December 24, the palladium futures main contract PD2606 reached the upper limit. It is expected to be strongly volatile in December 2025 and reach a new high, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile and may close at the lower limit [51]. - **Base Metal Futures** - **Copper**: On December 24, the copper futures main contract CU2602 rose. It is expected to be strongly volatile in December 2025 and reach a new high, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile [57]. - **Nickel**: On December 24, the nickel futures main contract NI2602 rose. It is expected to be strongly volatile in December 2025, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile [62]. - **Tin**: On December 24, the tin futures main contract SN2602 showed a slight change. It is expected to be strongly volatile in December 2025, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile [66][67]. - **Other Commodity Futures** - **Lithium Carbonate**: On December 24, the lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2605 rose. It is expected to be strongly volatile in December 2025, and on December 25, it will be widely volatile [71]. - **Rebar**: On December 24, the rebar futures main contract RB2605 rose slightly. It is expected to be widely volatile in December 2025, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile [75]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: On December 24, the hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2605 rose slightly. It is expected to be in a volatile - consolidation state on December 25 [79]. - **Iron Ore**: On December 24, the iron ore futures main contract I2605 rose slightly. It is expected to be widely volatile in December 2025, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile [82]. - **Coking Coal**: On December 24, the coking coal futures main contract JM2605 rose. It is expected to be weakly and widely volatile in December 2025, and on December 25, it will be weakly volatile [85][86].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On December 24, equity index futures rose, CGB futures stabilized, and most commodities advanced, with silver, platinum, palladium, and lithium carbonate leading the gains [2][3][10] - Beijing adjusted housing purchase restrictions, and the PBOC emphasized continuing to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy [3][32][34] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures (Futures Movements) 1.1 Overview - On December 24, equity index futures (IC rose 1.6%, IM rose 1.9%, TL rose 0%) rose, CGB futures stabilized. Most commodities advanced. Silver, platinum, and palladium were the top gainers in commodity futures, while SCFIS (Europe), poly-silicon, and soybean meal were the top decliners [10][11][12] 1.2 Daily Raise (Rising Varieties) 1.2.1 Copper - On December 24, copper rose 2.3% to 96,100 yuan per ton. The Federal Reserve's rate - cut stance and balance - sheet expansion supported copper prices. Supply disruptions and low long - term contract TC/RCs tightened supply, but weak demand in the off - season limited price increases [16][17][18] 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On December 24, iron ore rose 0.3% to 779.5 yuan per ton. Overseas shipments decreased, arrivals at domestic ports declined, and demand for molten iron dropped. Port inventories increased, while steel mill inventories decreased, and the year - end inventory replenishment game intensified [21][22][24] 1.2.3 Steel Rebar - On December 24, steel rebar rose 0.1% to 3,136 yuan per ton. Environmental restrictions led to a decline in iron and steel production, but rebar production rebounded. Demand was supported by exports and rush construction, and overall steel inventories continued to decline, but current inventory levels remained higher year - on - year [27][28][29] 2. China News (Chinese News) 2.1 Macro News - The PBOC's Monetary Policy Committee emphasized continuing to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy and strengthening counter - cyclical and inter - cyclical adjustments at its 2025 Q4 meeting [32][34] - Beijing adjusted housing purchase restrictions, easing home - buying conditions for non - registered families and unifying commercial loan rates for first and second homes [33][34] 2.2 Industry News - The PBOC and seven other departments supported exploring cross - border digital yuan payment pilots between the Chinese mainland and Singapore [35][37] - The SASAC stated that central SOEs should enhance listed company quality and market value management [36][37]

由北京市通州区人民政府指导，《财经》杂志、财经网、《财经智库》主办的"《财经》年会2026： 预测与战略 · 年度对话暨2025全球财富管理论坛"于12月18日至20日在北京举行，主题为"变局中的中国定 力"。 12月18日，国际货币基金组织(IMF)驻华首席代表Marshall Mills在致辞中表示，全球不确定性已急剧攀 升，且持续走高。这种不确定性一定会保留很长的时间，所以一定要做好应对这些不确定性的准备。他预 计今年和明年两年全球增长仅会小幅放缓。 我非常同意刚才发言嘉宾的一些观点，我的演讲可能不像其他几位演讲那样充满活力，我想分享一下 自己的见解。过去几十年我们看到了令人难以置信的进展，虽然也有没有实现的愿望，考虑到这些进展， 我们面临的挑战看起来是有一些反知觉的，但如今普通人的生活远好于40年或者80年以前。我们研究这些 数据的时候发现潜在的一些深层暗流和一些沮丧，尤其在年轻一代人当中，为了更好的理解这一点。我们 可以看一些例子，以美国为例，年轻人长大以后，收入超过父母的概率持续下降，我的父亲这个月90岁 了，对于我父亲那一代，30岁的时候赚的钱超过他的父母那一代的概率超过90%，而到我这一代，我 ...