（来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 【概要】本周，美联储降息预期兑现，国内中央经济会议召开定调进一步扩内需促消费，金融市场信心 有所提振；受国内棉纺消费保持韧性、国际消费需求疲软等因素影响，国内棉价重心上移，国际棉价维 持弱势震荡，内外棉价差继续扩大。 一、价格回顾 国内方面，随着新棉销售快速推进，丰产压力逐步消化，现货市场报价坚挺；同时，中央经济会议召开 给金融市场带来信心，国内棉价延续涨势。本周郑州棉花期货主力合约结算均价13794元/吨，较前周上 涨31元/吨，涨幅0.2%；代表内地标准级皮棉市场价格的国家棉花价格B指数均价14960元/吨，较前周上 涨41元/吨，涨幅0.3%。 国际市场，美联储宣布降息25个基点符合市场预期，金融市场情绪有所回暖，但在美国农业部进一步上 调美棉产量的影响下，国际棉价走势维持弱势，均价略有下降。本周纽约棉花期货主力合约结算均价 63.89美分/磅，较前周下跌0.44美分/磅，跌幅0.7%；代表进口棉中国主港到岸均价的国际棉花指数(M) 均价71.99美分/磅，折人民币进口成本12559元/吨(按1%关税计算，不含港杂和运费)，较前周下跌89元/ 吨，跌幅0.7%。国 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 中央经济工作会议与美联储货币政策变化对 A 股的影响 ——A 股投资策略周报（1214） 近期宏观层面迎来关键定调，国内中央经济工作会议直面"国内供强需弱"矛盾， 明确把"促进物价合理回升"作为货币政策重要考量；海外美联储如期降息 25bp 并启用 RMP 工具，旨在维持银行体系充裕准备金水平。往后看，随着下周非农及 通胀数据落地，建议重点关注"制定实施城乡居民增收计划"带来的消费潜力释放， 以及"推动投资止跌回稳"背景下的重大项目相关预期。 定期报告 《市场调整结束了吗？后续如何 应 对 — — A 股 投 资 策 略 周 报 （1018）》 相关报告 《近期政策端变化如何影响 A 股 市场？——A 股投资策略周报 （1207）》 《A 股调整的原因和恢复上涨的 信 号 — — A 股 投 资 策 略 周 报 （1123）》 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 陈星宇 S1090522070004 c ...

短多维持持有 结构空配继续 原油周报 2025/12/13 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 05 原油需求 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 08 另类数据 01 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/11 2025/6/18 2025/6/25 2025/7/2 ...

12 月 1 0 日 至 11 日 ， 中 央 经 济 工 作 会 议 在 北 京 举 行 ， 总 结 20 25 年 经 济 工 作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。12月13日，由中国国际 经济交流中心举办的" 2 025 - 202 6中国经济年会"在京举行，今年年会的主 题 为 " 贯 彻 落 实 中 央 经 济 工 作 会 议 精 神 以 高 质 量 发 展 为 ' 十 五 五 ' 开 好 局"。中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀发表《坚持 稳中求进、提质增效 努力实现"十五五"良好开局》的主旨演讲。 韩文秀表示，2024年9月26日中央政治局会议以来，我国先后出台实施了一系列政策措施。明年还将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策，要协同发挥存量政 策和增量政策集成效应，推动经济稳中向好。 2025年经济增长5%左右 韩文秀表示，回望"十四五"，我国有效应对世纪疫情、脱钩断链、自然灾害等超乎寻常的冲击挑战。经济实力明显壮大，我国经济总量连续跨过110万亿 元、120万亿元、130万亿元的台阶，今年预计达到140万亿元左右。 韩文秀表示，今年是中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年，是很 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy and Outlook - The Central Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference have set the direction for economic work in 2026, emphasizing stability and quality improvement in economic governance [2][3] - Eight key tasks were outlined, including prioritizing domestic demand, driving innovation, enhancing high-quality development, and promoting green transformation [2] - The focus on domestic demand includes implementing actions to boost consumption and increasing the supply of quality goods and services [2] Group 2: Inflation and Consumer Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking the highest level since March 2024, driven primarily by food prices [4] - Food prices shifted from a decline of 2.9% to an increase of 0.2%, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 14.5% after nine months of decline [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the industrial sector [4] Group 3: Trade Performance - China's total goods trade value reached 41.21 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, and November saw a rebound in export growth to 5.7% [5][6] - Exports to the EU and Belt and Road economies increased significantly, while exports to the U.S. fell by 28.6%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [5][6] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Financing - The growth rate of M2 and social financing remained high, with M2 at 336.99 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, while social financing stock reached 440.07 trillion yuan, up by 8.5% [7][8] - The increase in loans to the real economy was lower than in previous years, reflecting a shift towards diversified financing methods [7][8] Group 5: Advertising Regulation - The State Administration for Market Regulation has proposed guidelines to regulate misleading advertising practices, particularly those using "big letters" for attention while downplaying important information [9] - The guidelines aim to clarify the responsibilities of advertisers and ensure compliance with advertising standards [9] Group 6: AI Regulation and Market Impact - The U.S. government has issued an executive order to establish a unified regulatory framework for artificial intelligence, limiting state-level regulations [12] - This move is seen as a strategy to maintain U.S. leadership in AI, benefiting major tech companies while raising concerns about regulatory overreach [12] Group 7: Nvidia's Conditional Sale of H200 Chips - The U.S. government has allowed Nvidia to sell its H200 AI chips to China, with a 25% fee on the transaction, which is expected to impact the competitive landscape in the AI chip market [13] - The approval is viewed as a strategic balance between maintaining technological advantage and accessing market opportunities, presenting both challenges and opportunities for domestic AI chip manufacturers [13]

5 75 IT B V SH 记者 宋笛、李静、杜涛、田进 同样，于"很不平凡"的一年里召开的中央经济工作会议，也呈现了诸多不同以往的特点。 2024年中央经济工作会议闭幕后，本报曾刊发文章《理解经济政策新平衡》。文中提出，"着力实现增长稳、就业稳和物价合理回升的优化组合"这一表述， 首次将增长、就业和物价纳入同一政策目标框架，并将其列为"目标引领"之一。这一变化，折射出自"924"新政实施以来，中国经济政策思路经历的一次调 整。 而刚刚召开的中央经济工作会议，则可能意味着经济政策思路的进一步深化。 对经济的认识发生了哪些变化？ "五个必须"中"必须充分挖掘经济潜能"指向了中国经济增长的潜力，"924"新政后，通过宏观政策升温，经济潜能进一步释放。这一认识实际上改变了此前 部分经济观点中，对增量类政策的谨慎态度。其他"四个必须"，也都是在2025年能看得见、摸得着的经济实践中总结出来的规律性认识。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议召开。会议用"很不平凡"四个字，为即将过去的2025年作出注解。 2024年"924"新政出台后，中国经济运行和政策思路均出现变化。 同年12月召开的中央经济工作会议，明确提出 ...

扫码文末"投小圈" 加入行业交流群 文章来源：张明宏观金融研究 作者：张明 01 对经济工作的认识与体会 2024年中央经济工作会议：必须统筹好有效市场和有为政府的关系，形成既"放得活"又"管得住"的经济 秩序；必须统筹好总供给和总需求的关系；必须统筹好培育新动能和更新旧动能的关系；必须统筹好做 优增量和盘活存量的关系；必须统筹好提升质量和做大总量的关系。 2025年中央经济工作会议：必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到 既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。 解读 在2025年，中国政府多次强调"投资于物和投资于人紧密结合"， 未来与教育、培训、医疗、养老的投 资可能会明显增加。"充分挖掘经济潜能"和"苦练内功"本质上是一脉相承的，如何扩大内需尤其是提振 消费仍是当务之急。 02 经济工作基调 2024年中央经济工作会议：更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，扩大国内需求，推动 科技创新和产业创新融合发展，稳住楼市股市，防范化解重点领域风险和外部冲击，稳定预期、激发活 力，推动经济持续回升向好，不断提高人民生活水平，保 ...

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 继往开来——学习中央经济工作会议 摘要 宏观经济 2025年12月12日 | 宏观国债研究员：刘洋 | | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3063825 | 交易咨询证号： Z0016580 联系方式： liuyang18036@greend h.com 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年12月12日星期五 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 12月11日闭幕的中央经济工作会议对2026年经济工作做出指导 。延续了去年的"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针 对性协同性"，"要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，要继续实施适度 宽松的货币政策"。相比去年提出的"加强超常规逆周期调节"，今 年表述为"加大逆周期和跨周期调节"，新提出"发挥存量政策和增 量政策集成效应"。我们理解可能会从超常规过渡到常规，更加重视 跨周期调节，也就是从更长远的视角来制定中短期的政策。 对于财政政策我们关注到"保持必要"四个字，我们预计2026 年财政赤字率可能会保持在4%，新增地方政府债务规模约4万亿元， 超长期国 ...

三是会议明确了"稳中求进、提质增效"总基调。 在政策目标方面，会议将"稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、 稳预期"作为重要目标，体现了政策的多维平衡和系统性思维，旨在通过稳定微观主体来夯实宏观经济 基础。在应对经济的供需矛盾方面，会议强调"持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量"，这一 表述明确了解决供强需弱矛盾的双向路径，既注重需求侧管理，也强调供给侧改革，体现了政策的全面 性和协调性。在货币政策方面，会议明确提出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重 要考量"，这意味着货币政策将在稳增长的同时，更加关注物价水平的合理回升，为经济复苏提供适宜 的货币环境。在提升政策效能方面，会议要求"增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性"，并将各类经济政策和非 经济政策、存量政策和增量政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估，这有助于更好发挥政策的协同效应。 四是会议部署的2026年八项重点任务，特别强调逆周期和跨周期政策的有机结合。 这八项任务涵盖了 内需、创新、改革、开放、协调、绿色、民生、安全等多个维度。在内需政策方面，会议提出"深入实 施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划"，通过增加居民收入来提升消费能力，同时推动投 资 ...

Central Economic Work Conference - The conference emphasized the need for a more proactive macro policy in the upcoming year, focusing on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [2] - It highlighted the importance of maintaining employment, stabilizing enterprises, and ensuring market expectations, aiming for qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth [2] - The policy direction for next year includes a commitment to continue implementing more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with a focus on consistency and effectiveness [2][3] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75% [4] - The decision faced opposition from three voting members, marking the first time since 2019 that such dissent occurred [4] - The Fed plans to begin purchasing short-term government bonds to maintain adequate reserve levels, indicating a focus on market liquidity rather than a return to quantitative easing [5] Trump's Golden Card Visa Program - The Trump administration has begun accepting applications for the "Golden Card" visa, aimed at attracting wealthy individuals to the U.S. for a fee of $1 million [6] - This program has raised concerns about fairness in the U.S. immigration system, as it contrasts with stricter immigration policies [6][7] World Bank Economic Forecast for China - The World Bank has raised its economic growth forecast for China, predicting a growth rate of 4.9% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026, both up by 0.4 percentage points from previous estimates [8] - The IMF and ADB have also adjusted their forecasts upward, reflecting a more optimistic view of China's economic resilience amid global trade challenges [8][9] "Jiutian" Drone Development - The "Jiutian" drone successfully completed its maiden flight, showcasing advancements in China's large drone technology [10] - This drone features a modular design that allows for various applications, including logistics and emergency response, highlighting its dual-use potential [11] Meta's AI Model Development - Meta is leading a new AI project called "Avocado," utilizing Alibaba's Qwen model to enhance its AI capabilities, indicating a shift towards closed-source models [12][13] - This change reflects a broader trend among tech companies moving away from open-source models due to performance and security considerations [13] JD.com's Investment in Hong Kong - JD.com has acquired office space in Hong Kong for approximately 3.5 billion HKD, signaling its commitment to expanding operations in the region [14] - This move aligns with a trend of major internet companies increasing their investments in Hong Kong as a strategic market [14][15] Suning's Asset Sale - Suning.com announced the sale of eight companies for a total of 8 yuan, indicating a significant reduction in its debt burden [16][17] - This transaction is part of Suning's strategy to improve its financial situation, although the company continues to face operational challenges [17] Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a downturn, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.7% amid a lack of positive catalysts [18] - The market's performance reflects broader economic uncertainties, including concerns over consumer spending and real estate sector stability [18] New Stock Subscription Rules at Beijing Stock Exchange - The Beijing Stock Exchange is rumored to be changing its new stock subscription rules to lower the entry barrier for investors, potentially increasing market participation [19]