Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that while macroeconomic policies have some effectiveness in stabilizing the economy, relying solely on these policies is insufficient to resolve the current economic challenges. It suggests that a multifaceted approach is necessary to stimulate demand and stabilize prices, particularly focusing on income stability, employment, and the real estate market [2][3][7]. Demand Analysis - The persistent low demand is attributed to insufficient effective demand rather than mere willingness to consume. Effective demand, a key concept in Keynesian economics, refers to demand backed by purchasing power, which is influenced by income levels and employment quality [4]. - The decline in disposable income is primarily due to high unemployment rates among the youth and deteriorating job quality, leading to reduced consumption capacity. This is exacerbated by falling real estate prices, which negatively impact household balance sheets and increase savings rates, further suppressing consumption [5]. Investment Demand - Investment demand is also weak, reflected in reduced corporate investments and declining local government investment capabilities. Factors such as market downturns, increased competition, and deteriorating financial conditions have led to a decrease in corporate investment appetite. Local governments face fiscal constraints due to reduced land sales and tax revenues, limiting their ability to invest [6]. Supply-Side Analysis - The article highlights that overcapacity is a significant issue, driven by the phenomenon of "involution," which indicates a lack of effective market clearing mechanisms. This results in persistent overcapacity and price declines, as the market fails to eliminate excess supply effectively [6][10]. Policy Recommendations - To stabilize prices, the article suggests that income stability is crucial, which in turn relies on stable employment and robust corporate performance. It advocates for a shift in fiscal policy focus from "heavy investment" to "heavy consumption," emphasizing direct support for consumer spending and social security for low-income groups [7]. - The stabilization of the real estate market is deemed essential, as falling property prices adversely affect the financial health of households, businesses, and local governments. The article calls for proactive policies to support the real estate sector to restore economic balance [8]. Market Clearing Mechanism - The article stresses the need to reconstruct the market clearing mechanism to address the issues of overcapacity and "involution." This involves ensuring that enterprises can exit the market effectively, particularly state-owned enterprises that may be propped up by soft budget constraints [10][12]. - It suggests that reforms should include clarifying property rights for state-owned enterprises, aligning local government fiscal responsibilities, and introducing competition policies to facilitate market entry and exit [12]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while expansionary policies can mitigate short-term shocks, structural reforms are essential for long-term stability. It emphasizes the importance of restoring supply-demand balance and achieving a moderate price increase to support potential economic growth [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the persistent low inflation and deflationary pressures in China's economy, highlighting the need for targeted macroeconomic policies to address the underlying issues of insufficient effective demand and overcapacity [4][5][6]. Demand Analysis - Insufficient effective demand is primarily characterized by a lack of consumption demand with purchasing power, which is influenced by stagnant or declining income levels [5]. - The main source of household income is wage income, which has been negatively impacted by high youth unemployment rates and declining job quality [5]. - The decline in real estate prices has worsened household balance sheets, leading to increased savings rates and suppressed consumption [5][6]. Investment Demand - Investment demand is weak, reflected in reduced corporate investments and declining local government investment capabilities [6]. - Corporate revenue has been declining due to market sluggishness and increased competition, leading to lower investment demand [6]. - Local governments face fiscal constraints due to reduced land sales and related tax revenues, further limiting their investment capacity [6]. Supply Analysis - The current overcapacity issue is exacerbated by the "involution" phenomenon, which reflects a lack of effective market clearing mechanisms [6][7]. - The failure of the price clearing mechanism has resulted in persistent overcapacity, as firms are not incentivized to exit the market despite losses [7][9]. Policy Recommendations - To stabilize prices, it is essential to stabilize income, which hinges on employment and corporate stability [7]. - The focus of fiscal policy should shift from "heavy investment" to "heavy consumption," emphasizing direct support for consumer spending [7]. - Stabilizing the real estate market is crucial, as its decline negatively impacts the balance sheets of households, businesses, and local governments [8]. - Addressing the "involution" issue requires reconstructing market clearing mechanisms to ensure that supply and demand can adjust effectively [9][10]. Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are necessary to enhance the market exit mechanisms for inefficient firms, particularly state-owned enterprises [10]. - The alignment of fiscal powers and responsibilities at the local government level is critical to prevent the maintenance of inefficient capacities [10]. - Introducing competition policies across various sectors will ensure equal access and exit for all market participants [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have seen divergences, with funds switching between high - and low - level stocks and rapid rotation, reducing market risk appetite. Short - term index faces uncertainty due to shrinking trading volume, but in the long - run, with policy support for the capital market unchanged, the strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in Q4, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market may oscillate under the intertwined situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect, and if the stock market cools and allocation forces increase, the bond market may recover [7]. - For precious metals, short - term interest rate cut expectations are frustrated, but the Fed's mid - term easing pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on dips, especially paying attention to the rising opportunity of silver prices [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are expected to have a certain degree of support in price, with some showing a trend of shock - strengthening or shock - running, mainly affected by factors such as Fed interest rate policies, trade situations, and industry supply - demand [12][14][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices are under downward pressure due to weak demand, and the iron ore price may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens after the festival. Glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate, and manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [31][33][39]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is weak in the short - term but bullish in the medium - term; crude oil has short - term uncertainties; and methanol's fundamentals are improving [52][54][56]. - For agricultural products, the supply - demand situation varies. For example, the pig price is weak, the egg price may stabilize after a small decline. Bean and rapeseed meal are under short - term pressure, and the price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term [74][76][81]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **行情资讯**: The central bank aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. The NDRC plans to build a new computing power network infrastructure. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry. The SASAC held a symposium on the economic operation of state - owned enterprises. The new energy storage market is short of cores [2]. - **期指基差比例**: IF, IC, and IM show different negative basis ratios for different contract periods, while IH has positive basis ratios in some cases [3]. - **策略观点**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. In August, industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry [5]. - **流动性**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with a net injection of 4115 billion yuan [6]. - **策略观点**: The bond market may oscillate in Q4, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond relationship [7]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: Domestic and foreign precious metals had different price changes, and the positions of precious metal futures and ETFs increased significantly [8]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to go long on dips, especially for silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: Copper prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis. Import losses and refined - waste spreads also had corresponding changes [11]. - **策略观点**: Short - term copper prices may continue to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: Aluminum prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [13]. - **策略观点**: Aluminum prices have strong support below [14]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: Zinc prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [15]. - **策略观点**: Short - term zinc prices may be weak [16]. Lead - **行情资讯**: Lead prices increased slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **策略观点**: Short - term lead prices may be strong [17]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: Nickel prices oscillated, with changes in spot prices and costs [18]. - **策略观点**: Short - term observation is recommended, and long on dips can be considered if prices fall enough [18]. Tin - **行情资讯**: Tin prices oscillated, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [19]. - **策略观点**: Tin prices may continue to oscillate, and observation is recommended [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **行情资讯**: Carbonate lithium prices had different changes, and the price of lithium concentrate was stable [21]. - **策略观点**: Carbonate lithium futures may oscillate within a range [22]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: Alumina prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [23]. - **策略观点**: Observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to relevant policies [24]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: Stainless steel prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [25]. - **策略观点**: Stainless steel prices may oscillate in the short - term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **策略观点**: Futures may be weaker than spot, with support from scrap aluminum prices [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [30]. - **策略观点**: Steel prices may be weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to the policies of the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: Iron ore prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **策略观点**: Short - term iron ore prices may be strong, but may adjust downward after the festival if downstream demand weakens [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **行情资讯**: Glass and soda ash prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [34][36]. - **策略观点**: Glass can be considered slightly bullish in the short - term, and soda ash is expected to oscillate [35][37]. Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [38]. - **策略观点**: They are likely to follow the black sector's trend, and manganese - silicon may have potential driving factors [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **行情资讯**: Industrial silicon prices declined, and polysilicon prices had a small increase, with changes in inventory and basis [41][44]. - **策略观点**: Industrial silicon may oscillate in the short - term, and polysilicon prices may decline in the short - term [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: Rubber prices were weak, with factors such as expected state reserve sales and weather affecting the market [47]. - **策略观点**: Mid - term bullish, short - term weak, and observation is recommended after the festival [52]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: Crude oil and related product prices increased, with changes in inventory [53]. - **策略观点**: Short - term uncertainties exist, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and observe [54]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: Methanol prices had small changes, with changes in basis [55]. - **策略观点**: The fundamentals are improving, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [56]. Urea - **行情资讯**: Urea prices declined slightly, with changes in basis [57]. - **策略观点**: Low - valuation and weak - driving, long positions can be considered on dips [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [58]. - **策略观点**: Styrene prices may stop falling, and observation is recommended [59]. PVC - **行情资讯**: PVC prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [60]. - **策略观点**: The supply - demand situation is poor, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: Ethylene glycol prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [62]. - **策略观点**: In the short - term, inventory may be low, but it will accumulate in the fourth quarter, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [63]. PTA - **行情资讯**: PTA prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - **策略观点**: The supply - demand situation is complex, and observation is recommended [65]. Para - Xylene - **行情资讯**: PX prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [66]. - **策略观点**: PX may accumulate inventory, and observation is recommended [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: PE prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [68]. - **策略观点**: PE prices may oscillate upward [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: PP prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [70]. - **策略观点**: PP is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high [71]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **行情资讯**: The pig price fluctuated slightly, with most areas seeing a decline [73]. - **策略观点**: The pig price may be weak, and short - term short positions on near - month contracts and reverse spreads are recommended [74]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: The egg price was stable with a small decline in some areas [75]. - **策略观点**: The egg price may stabilize after a small decline, and short - term observation is recommended [76]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: The price of US soybeans oscillated, and the domestic bean meal price was stable. The supply - demand situation was complex [77]. - **策略观点**: Short - term pressure exists, and in the medium - term, the market is expected to oscillate [78]. Edible Oils - **行情资讯**: The price of edible oils rebounded, and the supply - demand situation in Malaysia and Indonesia had different changes [79][80]. - **策略观点**: The price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term, and long positions can be considered on dips [81]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: The sugar price declined slightly, and the supply - demand situation in major producing areas is expected to change [82]. - **策略观点**: The sugar price is expected to decline in the long - term, and observation is recommended before the festival [83]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: The cotton price declined, and the supply - demand situation was complex [84][85]. - **策略观点**: The cotton price is affected by multiple factors, and short - term observation is recommended [86].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年09月29日 (原油) 上周国际油价上涨,布伦特12合约涨4.19%，SC11合约涨0.88%。围绕俄乌冲突的俄能源设施遇袭 及美国敦促印度、土耳其停止购买俄油仍令市场对供应存在担忧,周末联合国对伊朗的"快速恢复 制裁"机制已生效,但伊朗未采取军事回应等极端手段的情况下实际出口难有持续性影响。10月5日 OPEC+会议自愿减产8国或决定进一步小幅增产,原油反弹至震荡区间上沿后进一步上行空间愈发有 限,但考虑到十一前后她缘风险仍存,建议延续期货空头叠加看涨期权的配置思路。 (责金属) 周五美国公布PCE数据符合预期,市场维持年内连续降息判断,不过美联储多位宫员讲话体观谨慎态 度。本周关注美国政府停摆的解决进展以及非农就业数据发布。贵金属中期偏强趋势未改但国庆期 间波动风险较高，建议离场观望。 (铜) 上周五铜价调整，伦铜回调到MA5日均线。四季度铜价交投节奏，情绪面继续关注10月、12月两次 议息会议前后的指标变动，同时Grasberg基本缺席两个季度的供应已经影响了平衡表，对价格震荡 重心的影响较大。技术上，伦铜显露趋势突破潜力，M ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Lithium - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures market oscillated slightly stronger, driven by the strength of lithium - battery stocks and the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector. The project of Tibet Mining's Zabuye Salt Lake has been put into operation, but the short - term impact on supply is limited. - Production data has increased slightly, with new projects and lithium spodumene toll - processing contributing to the increase. Demand is steadily optimistic, and the whole industry chain is de - stocking. - In the short term, the supply path is clear, and the trading space is weakened. The strong demand in the peak season supports the price, and the futures market is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the main price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton [2]. Stainless Steel - Yesterday, the stainless - steel futures market oscillated slightly higher, while the spot market was cautious. The Fed's interest - rate cut has been implemented, and the nickel - ore price is firm. The 9 - month crude - steel production is expected to increase, mainly in the 300 - series. - The demand improvement in the peak season is not obvious, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. In the short term, the market will mainly oscillate and adjust, with the main operating range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan per ton [6]. Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel futures market continued to oscillate strongly, and the spot price also increased. The Indonesian nickel - mining association's stance is positive but has limited impact. - The refined - nickel spot trading is average, the ore price is firm, and the nickel - iron price has declined. The demand for stainless steel is weak, while the demand for nickel sulfate has improved. - In the short term, the market will maintain range - bound oscillations, with the main reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan per ton [8]. Zinc - Since September, Shanghai zinc has been relatively weak in the non - ferrous sector due to the expectation of loose supply. The supply side is loose, with increasing imports and high smelting rates. The demand side shows differentiation between domestic and foreign markets. - In the short term, the price may rise due to macro - drivers, but the upward rebound needs demand improvement and continuous improvement of interest - rate cut expectations. The market is expected to oscillate, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan per ton [11]. Copper - Freeport's announcement of the Grasberg mine accident has intensified concerns about the tight supply of global copper mines. The macro - environment is positive, with expected interest - rate cuts. - The copper demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but the supply shortage at the mine end supports the copper price. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides support, and the short - term price is rising due to mine - end disturbances. The main support level is 81,000 - 81,500 yuan per ton [13]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee is low. The demand is weak, and although AI and photovoltaic industries drive some consumption, it cannot make up for the decline in traditional consumption. - The supply side supports the tin price, which continues to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan per ton [15]. Aluminum Alloy - Yesterday, the casting - aluminum - alloy futures price oscillated with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost is high. The demand is in a mild recovery, and the pre - holiday stocking supports the price. - The short - term ADC12 price will maintain high - level oscillations, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan per ton [17]. Aluminum - The alumina futures price rebounded slightly, but the market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. The short - term spot price will be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating in the range of 2,850 - 3,150 yuan per ton. - For aluminum, the Fed's interest - rate cut has affected the market sentiment. The supply pressure exists, and the demand in the peak season and pre - holiday stocking support the price. The inventory has shown a positive signal. The short - term price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan per ton [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium - **Price and Basis**: The average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have decreased slightly, while the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in China, Japan, and South Korea has increased. The basis and some monthly spreads have changed [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production, demand, and imports of lithium carbonate increased, while the inventory decreased. The production capacity in September increased, and the operating rate in August also rose [2]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless - steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan have changed, and the basis and some monthly spreads have also changed. The raw - material prices are mostly stable [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China has decreased, while the imports and exports have changed. The social inventory of the 300 - series has increased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse receipts have decreased [6]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, and 1 imported nickel have increased, and the basis and some monthly spreads have changed. The cost of producing electrowon nickel from different raw materials has also changed [8]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined - nickel production has increased, while imports have decreased. The SHFE inventory and social inventory have increased, and the LME inventory is stable [8]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot has increased, and the basis, import loss, and monthly spreads have changed [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production and imports of refined zinc increased, while exports decreased. The operating rates of downstream industries have changed, and the social and LME inventories have decreased [11]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM wet - process copper, etc. have increased significantly, and the basis, refined - scrap spread, and other indicators have changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production and imports of electrolytic copper decreased. The operating rates of copper - rod production have increased, and the inventories in different regions have changed [13]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin have increased, and the basis and some monthly spreads have changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In July, the imports of tin ore decreased, while the production and imports of refined tin increased. The exports of refined tin and Indonesian refined tin decreased [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: The SHEF inventory, social inventory, and SHEF warehouse receipts have decreased, while the LME inventory has increased [15]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The prices of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy in different regions have increased slightly, and the refined - scrap spreads in different regions have decreased. The monthly spreads have changed [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots, and the production of scrap aluminum have changed. The imports and exports of un - wrought aluminum alloy ingots have increased. The operating rates of different - sized recycled - aluminum alloy enterprises and primary - aluminum alloy enterprises have changed, and the inventory has increased slightly [17]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum has decreased, and the prices of alumina in different regions have mostly decreased. The import loss, basis, and monthly spreads have changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased, while the imports and exports of electrolytic aluminum changed. The operating rates of downstream aluminum industries have changed, and the social and LME inventories of electrolytic aluminum have decreased [18].

Group 1 - The bond market is currently in a chaotic phase, influenced by weak fundamentals and strong risk appetite, with expectations of two phases in market performance for the remainder of the year [1][2] - The first phase, from mid-September to October, is expected to see a recovery in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield potentially peaking around 1.85% [1][25] - The second phase, from November to mid-December, may see an increase in policy expectations, with the yield center likely to rise, potentially reaching a high of around 1.9% [1][26] Group 2 - Bond yields have fluctuated, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.65% at the end of June to above 1.81%, before retreating to 1.79% by September 12 [2] - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect has been observed, where rising stock market performance leads to increased bond yields, as seen with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 3440 to above 3880 [2][4] - The macroeconomic environment shows limited changes, with GDP growth in the first half of the year at 5.3%, but subsequent months showing weaker consumption and investment data [2][3] Group 3 - Monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with potential for further interest rate cuts following the Federal Reserve's recent rate reduction [3] - Institutional behavior is impacting the bond market, with banks and insurance companies showing varied levels of bond purchasing activity [13][14][15] - Recent regulatory changes regarding fund sales fees are expected to increase redemption pressures on bond funds, potentially leading to higher bond yields [19][20] Group 4 - Historical analysis indicates that previous "stock-bond seesaw" phases have led to significant movements in both markets, with the current phase expected to be less impactful than past occurrences [7][9] - The bond market's sensitivity to stock market movements is anticipated to weaken, with the bond market's performance becoming less reactive to stock price changes [10][26] - The overall bond market is expected to maintain a stable yield environment, with predictions of slight fluctuations in the coming months [22][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the non - super - dovish stance led to a short - term correction in the non - ferrous sector due to profit - taking. The call between Chinese and US leaders improved market sentiment, which is expected to boost commodity prices. The non - ferrous metal market is affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomics, raw materials, smelting, demand, and inventory, and different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [9][91][192]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel. It shows their daily, weekly, and annual price changes [6][7]. 2. Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: Neutral to bullish. Positive factors include the planned meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the Fed's interest rate cut, while negative factors are the under - expected Chinese economic data in August [9]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral to bullish. The spot processing fee of copper ore rebounded slightly, and the port inventory increased, but the tight supply pattern continued [51]. - **Smelting End**: Neutral to bullish. The decline in sulfuric acid prices led to an increase in the losses of smelters using spot copper ore and a narrowing of the profits of those using long - term contract copper ore. The production of electrolytic copper in September may decline significantly [51]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The operating rate of refined copper rods increased slightly, and the operating rate of copper products rebounded slightly with the arrival of the peak season [10]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. Global copper inventories increased [77]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Oscillating to bullish. Although the Fed's interest rate cut caused some bulls to leave the market, the overseas easing cycle and the improvement in domestic downstream demand are expected to drive copper prices to stabilize and rise [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term strong operation; Arbitrage: Long domestic and short overseas [9]. 3. Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: Neutral to bullish. The Fed's interest rate cut and the decline in the US initial jobless claims are positive for the non - ferrous sector, while the Bank of Japan's ETF reduction has a certain impact [91]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The domestic processing fee remained stable, and the import processing fee index increased significantly. The supply of domestic ores is stable, and the import processing fee is expected to continue to rise [91]. - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The production in August was better than expected, but the production in September is expected to decline due to new smelter maintenance plans [91]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The peak season is approaching, but the improvement in downstream demand is limited, and the orders are not significantly improved [91]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. The social inventory continued to increase, and the differentiation between domestic and overseas inventories deepened, increasing the global visible inventory [91]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Oscillating. The short - term focus is on the fundamentals, and the increase in inventory and the lackluster peak season put pressure on zinc prices. Attention should be paid to the opening of the "export window" [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy low and sell high within the range; Arbitrage: Pay attention to the opportunity of long overseas and short domestic [91]. 4. Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: Neutral to bullish. The Fed's interest rate cut and the call between Chinese and US leaders are positive for market sentiment, but the Fed's stance is not super - dovish [192]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral to bullish. Concerns about the supply in Indonesia have decreased, but there is still uncertainty in the RKAB approval in 2026. The nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia increased slightly, and the domestic port inventory increased significantly [192]. - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The production of pure nickel remained high, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the production of some nickel iron plants in Indonesia resumed. The demand for nickel sulfate increased, and the stainless steel price oscillated [192]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The social inventory of stainless steel continued to decline, but the peak - season demand recovery was limited. The new energy production and sales remained high, driving the procurement demand of precursor enterprises [192]. - **Inventory**: Neutral to bearish. Global nickel inventories increased rapidly [192]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Oscillating to bullish. Although there are uncertainties in the Indonesian supply, the improvement in market sentiment and the relatively strong raw material prices may drive nickel and stainless steel prices to oscillate strongly in the short term [192]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy low within the range; Arbitrage: Wait and see [192].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the implementation of proactive macro policies leading to stable economic performance, with GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - There are external uncertainties and insufficient domestic demand, indicating that the foundation for economic recovery needs strengthening [1] - The upcoming autumn conference in Shenzhen will feature expert discussions on macroeconomic trends and the integration of digital and green finance [1] Group 2 - The Central Financial Work Conference highlights the importance of green and digital finance, with a focus on the development of a multi-layered green finance market [2] - The integration of digital and green finance has shown significant results, but challenges remain, such as unclear application scenarios and insufficient enterprise awareness [2] - Discussions at the conference will cover new developments in the integration of digital and green finance, including enhancing financial services for the real economy and improving risk prevention capabilities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company bond ETF (511030) is influenced by macroeconomic policies, interest rate changes, and credit risks in the bond market [1] Group 1: Market and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury auctioned a four-month Treasury bill with a winning yield of 3.815% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.06 [2] - The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% due to economic weakness and reduced inflation risks, with no forward guidance provided [2] - The Federal Reserve also cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, amid rising inflation and employment risks [2][3] Group 2: ETF Performance Metrics - As of September 17, 2025, the company bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.03%, marking three consecutive days of gains, with a latest price of 106.15 yuan [3] - The ETF's scale reached 22.851 billion yuan, with recent inflows and outflows remaining balanced, totaling 97.7382 million yuan over the last ten trading days [4] - The ETF has achieved a net value increase of 13.47% over the past five years, with a maximum monthly return of 1.22% since inception [4] Group 3: Risk and Return Analysis - The maximum drawdown for the ETF in the last six months was 0.19%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.08% [5] - The ETF's management fee is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [6] Group 4: Tracking Accuracy - The ETF's tracking error over the past month was 0.012%, closely following the China Bond - Medium to High Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor Index [7]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core View - The release of weak economic data on September 15 boosted the bond market, with treasury bond futures closing higher across the board. However, the bond market still lacks a breakthrough, and investors may need to be patient and wait for better allocation opportunities. The short - end bonds are more resilient than the long - end bonds under the support of loose liquidity [8][12]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Economic data weakness boosted the bond market, with all treasury bond futures closing higher. The yields of major term interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market showed short - term decline and long - term increase, with the medium - and long - term changes around 1bp. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 reported 1.8000%, up 1.05bp [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank withdrew funds in the open market, and the overall funding situation was stable. There were 3115 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 2800 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 315 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates mostly rose slightly, and medium - and long - term funds also increased slightly [10]. - **Conclusion**: The national economic activities in August showed weakness, with consumption slowing down and the decline in the real estate market expanding again, indicating that the foundation for domestic demand recovery is still weak. The necessity for China's monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September is not high, and policy may focus on fiscal and credit expansion and real estate support, which will bring disturbances to the bond market. However, the suppression of the stock market on the bond market may ease. The short - end bonds are more resilient under the support of loose funds [11][12]. 4.2 Industry News - **Economic Data**: In August, fixed - asset investment decreased month - on - month, real estate investment declined year - on - year, consumption growth slowed down, and industrial added value increased year - on - year. From January to August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%. The increase in RMB loans and social financing scale was higher than the same period last year [13][14]. - **Policy News**: The Ministry of Finance stated that the fiscal policy has sufficient room for action. A 500 billion yuan special treasury bond was issued this year, which is expected to leverage about 6 trillion yuan of credit [14]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on the trading data of treasury bond futures on September 15, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest, is provided. Also, there are details about the inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads of the main contracts, as well as the trend of the main contracts [6][15][16]. - **Money Market**: Graphs showing the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, and the change of inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rates are presented [28][30]. - **Derivatives Market**: Graphs of Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves (mean) are provided [33].