华龙期货投资咨询部 研究报告 豆粕月报 美豆进口加速，豆粕期价震荡整理 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 2025 年 11 月豆粕期价震荡整理，11 月豆粕加权上涨 0.20%， 以 2946 报收；菜粕加权上涨 2.79%，以 2433 报收。国际市场上， 美豆连续上涨 1.55%，以 1132.25 报收，美豆粉下跌 0.22%，以 322.70 报收。 【重要资讯】： USDA11 月报告显示：全球大豆产量预计为 4.2175 亿吨，压 榨量为 3.6498 亿吨。全球大豆期末库存预估下调 200 万吨至 1.2199 亿吨，库存消费比预计为 20%。 【后市展望】： 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 01 日星期一 近期陆续有中国采购美豆的订单，自 10 月底以来预期至少已 采购 50 船以上，中国的采购需求对 CBOT 美 ...

美豆周度报告 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 01 美豆多空因素与观点 | 总体观点 | | --- | | 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；需求有望好转，下方空间有限，总体震荡偏强，区间1000-1200美分/蒲式耳 | | 利空因素 | | 1、中国购买美豆后，特朗普政府对生柴添加政策的支持力度可能减弱 | | 2、巴西雨季回归，降水改善，播种进入收尾阶段 | | 3、巴西2025/26年度种植面积预计增加 | | 利多因素 | | 1、预计本年度中国购买美豆量1200万吨，未来三年每年2500万吨以上 | | 2、阿根廷播种速度低于预期 | | 3、拉尼娜天气可能导致南美大豆减产 | Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 Special report on Guotai Juna ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the downside is limited due to expected improvement in demand. It is expected to fluctuate moderately upwards within the range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include a possible weakening of the Trump administration's support for biodiesel addition policies after China purchases US soybeans, the return of the rainy season in Brazil improving precipitation and accelerating sowing progress, and an expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - Positive factors include an expected purchase of 1.2 million tons of US soybeans by China this year and over 2.5 million tons per year in the next three years, a slower - than - expected sowing progress in Brazil, and the possibility of La Niña weather causing a reduction in South American soybean production [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - **US Soybeans**: This week, the price of US soybeans rose and then fell, with an overall increase of 22.75 cents per bushel. Before the monthly report, the market expected it to be bullish, pushing up the price. However, the reduction of export forecasts after the release of the report dampened market sentiment. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, weather conditions in South American main producing areas, and the progress of biodiesel policies [7][9]. - **US Soybean Meal**: This week, the price of US soybean meal fluctuated and rose. The market was optimistic before the release of the monthly supply - demand report, but the price fell after the report. The market chose to take profits before the weekend. Future price performance needs to closely track the quantity and rhythm of China's purchase of US soybeans [11]. - **US Soybean Oil**: This week, the price of US soybean oil fluctuated and rose slightly. China's return to the US soybean export market weakened the impetus for increased biodiesel addition, and the marginal demand for oils and fats began to deteriorate. Indonesia is expected to increase production by 10% in 2026, exceeding market expectations, and palm oil exports are poor [15]. 3.2 Supply Factors - **US Drought Situation**: The drought rate in US soybean - producing areas remained at 61%, compared with 62% last week. In the next two weeks, there will be more rain in the US, which is unfavorable for the completion of the harvest. The temperature will be warmer [28][30][34]. - **South American Precipitation**: In Brazil, precipitation is low in the central - western and northern regions and high in the eastern region. In Argentina, precipitation in the soybean - producing areas is close to normal, but less rain is forecasted in the second week [35][37]. - **Brazilian Sowing Progress**: As of the week ending November 1, the sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil was 58.4%, compared with 47.1% last week and a five - year average of 57% [39]. 3.3 Demand Factors - **US Soybean Pressing Profit**: As of November 7, the pressing profit of US soybeans was 2.02 dollars per bushel, down from 2.15 dollars last week [42]. - **US Soybean Export**: In the week ending September 26, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 611,200 tons, up from 512,300 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 1.0885 million tons, up from 984,800 tons last week. The net sales this year were 870,500 tons, up from 724,400 tons last week. The sales for the next year were 0 tons, down from 220,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China was 0 tons [44][46][48]. 3.4 Other Factors - **ENSO Index**: The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.2, indicating the entry into the La Niña range [55]. - **Soybean Planting Cost**: The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. The planting cost in the US has decreased year - on - year, and the cost in Brazil has also decreased year - on - year [57][59][61]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans was 18,200 lots, up from 14,400 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, down from 35,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, up from 59,400 lots last week [63][65][67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view is that due to the expected high - yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, cost support makes a significant decline unlikely. The market is expected to be generally oscillating with an upward bias, in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include the return of the rainy season in Brazil, improved precipitation, accelerated sowing progress, and the expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - Positive factors are the possible intensification of the biodiesel policy to support prices, the possible agreement on purchasing US agricultural products after the APEC meeting between Chinese and US leaders, and the possible reduction in South American soybean production due to La Nina weather [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans oscillated and closed higher. The market is optimistic about the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents during APEC next week, and the return of the rainy season in Brazil is expected to speed up the planting progress. Next week's focus points are the follow - up progress of Sino - US relations, the weather in South American main producing areas, and the progress of the biodiesel policy [8]. - This week, the price of US soybean meal oscillated and rose. The market is optimistic about the meeting between Chinese and US presidents during the APEC meeting in South Korea next week, and the possible delay of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy, which weakens the oil market and provides additional support for soybean meal [12]. - This week, the price of US soybean oil oscillated and declined. The possible delay of Indonesia's biodiesel B50 addition policy has raised concerns about the oil consumption outlook, putting pressure on the global oil market [14]. - Since September 19, the USDA has suspended data updates [16][18][20]. - On October 24, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, slightly increased to 119.35 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports increased to 138.66 reais per bag [22][24]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas remained unchanged, with a drought rate of 68%, the same as last week [27]. - The temperature in US producing areas will be warmer in the next two weeks, and precipitation in the Great Lakes region will be less, which is conducive to the completion of the harvest [29][31]. - In Brazil, the central - northern region has less precipitation, while the southeastern region has more precipitation. In Argentina, the precipitation in soybean - producing areas is basically normal, and the sowing work is about to start [33][35]. - As of the week ending September 26, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 62%, up from 61% last week but down from 64% in the same period last year [37]. Demand Factors - As of October 17, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.38 dollars per bushel, down from 2.72 dollars last week [41]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 512,300 tons, down from 837,100 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 484,100 tons, down from 804,300 tons last week. The net sales volume this year was 724,400 tons, down from 923,000 tons last week. The net sales volume for next year was 0 tons, down from 220,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons [44][46][48]. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.095, indicating the entry into the La Nina range [55]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [57][59]. - As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,200 lots, up from 14,400 lots last week. The net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, down from 35,000 lots last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, up from 59,400 lots last week [63][65][67].

Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic oilseed futures have shown a weak oscillating trend since October, with soybean oil futures maintaining a range of 8200 to 8400 yuan/ton due to policy expectations [1] - The domestic supply of soybean oil is relatively ample, with inventory at a medium to high level, which suppresses the upward price potential [1] - International soybean oil prices remain firm, and the slowdown in domestic oil mill crushing pace provides some support for soybean oil prices [1] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Export Challenges - The U.S. government shutdown and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions have weakened the influence of U.S. soybeans in the global pricing system, leading to a reduced impact on China's imported soybean costs [2] - From October to December, China is expected to maintain zero purchases of U.S. soybeans, relying on imports from Brazil and Argentina to fill the supply gap [2] - The decoupling of U.S. soybean pricing from Chinese imports is evident, with the pricing model now dominated by Brazilian soybean premiums and the exchange rate of the yuan [2] Group 3: Weather Predictions and Production Estimates - The U.S. Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 71% probability of La Niña weather from October to December, which may increase drought risks in major soybean-producing regions like Brazil and Argentina [3] - The Rosario Grain Exchange predicts Argentina's soybean production for the 2025/2026 season to be 47 million tons, lower than the USDA's previous estimate of 48.5 million tons [3] Group 4: Supply Adequacy - Prior to the National Day holiday, domestic purchases of Argentine soybeans increased due to a temporary cancellation of export taxes, covering the supply gap for the first quarter of next year [4] - In September, Argentina announced a reduction of the soybean export tax from 26% to zero, prompting Chinese buyers to secure at least 130,000 tons of soybean orders within a few days [4] - China's soybean imports in September reached 12.87 million tons, with imports from Brazil at 10.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, while no U.S. soybeans were imported for the first time since November 2018 [4] Group 5: Current Market Dynamics - The oilseed market currently lacks a clear direction, with stable supply and limited news impact, resulting in oscillating futures prices [5] - The recent procurement of Argentine soybeans is sufficient to meet the first-quarter demand, thus limiting the impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations on soybean prices [5] - The soybean oil market remains unchanged, with oil mills operating normally and inventory pressures persisting, leading to a lack of significant price drivers [5]

Market Performance - The three major indices opened high and fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.98%, the ChiNext Index by 1.98%, and the STAR Market 50 Index by 0.35% [2] - Over 3,800 stocks in the two markets rose, with a total trading volume of approximately 1.74 trillion yuan [2] Industry Highlights - The cultivated diamond and superhard materials sectors showed strong performance, with Huifeng Diamond rising by 29.98%, Sifangda by 19.98%, and Power Diamond by over 18% [2] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on superhard materials, effective November 8, which is expected to enhance the supply protection for the domestic superhard materials industry and strengthen market expectations for the sector's scarcity and performance certainty [2] Coal Sector - The coal sector experienced a collective surge, with major companies like Dayou Energy, Yunmei Energy, and Shanxi Black Cat all rising by 10% [2] - The cold air mass affecting the northern regions is expected to increase coal demand during the winter, as a double La Niña weather pattern may lead to a colder winter in China [3] Technology and Robotics - The CPO and computing power sectors were active, with Cambridge Technology rising by 10% and other companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication increasing by over 7% [3] - Citibank indicated potential upward demand in the optical module industry, suggesting buying opportunities after recent stock price adjustments [3] - Robotics leader UBTECH won a project for the procurement and installation of intelligent data collection and testing center equipment in Guangxi, with an order amounting to 126 million yuan [4] - UBTECH's Walker series humanoid robots have secured over 630 million yuan in orders this year, excluding a joint development project with Beijing Guodi [4] Declines in Other Sectors - The precious metals sector saw significant declines, with Hunan Silver hitting a 10% limit down, alongside other companies like Xiaocheng Technology and Western Gold experiencing heavy losses [4] - New energy-related stocks also showed weakness, with Shengxin Lithium Energy and Tianqi Lithium experiencing declines [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The overall view is that due to the expected high - yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market; however, cost support reduces the probability of a significant decline. The market is expected to be generally oscillating with an upward bias, within the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include the deterioration of Sino - US relations pressuring US soybean exports, the return of the rainy season in Brazil improving precipitation and accelerating the sowing progress, and the expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - Positive factors are the possible intensification of biodiesel policies supporting prices, the expectation of improved Sino - US relations, and the possible reduction of South American soybean production due to La Nina weather [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans oscillated and closed higher. The market started to trade on the meeting between the two heads of state during the APEC at the end of the month, and the return of the rainy season in Brazil is expected to speed up the planting progress. Next week, attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of Sino - US relations, the weather conditions in South American main producing areas, and the progress of biodiesel policies [7]. - This week, the price of US soybean meal oscillated and closed higher, mainly in an oscillating pattern [10][12]. - This week, the price of US soybean oil oscillated, with no obvious driving factors for both bulls and bears, and the current core contradiction has shifted to macro - expectations [13]. - Since September 19, the USDA has suspended data updates [15][17][19]. - On October 17, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose to 119.19 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 138.17 reais per bag [21][23]. 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has not improved, with a drought rate of 68%, the same as last week [26]. - In the next two weeks, the temperature in US producing areas will be warmer, with no threat of early frost, and precipitation in the Great Lakes region will be higher than normal [28][30]. - The rainy season in Brazil has returned, improving precipitation conditions, but precipitation in the central and northern regions is slightly less than normal [32]. - Precipitation in Argentine soybean - producing areas is basically normal, and the sowing work is about to start [34]. - As of the week of September 26, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 62%, up from 61% last week but lower than 64% in the same period last year [36]. 3.3 Demand Factors - As of October 10, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.72 dollars per bushel, down from 2.82 dollars last week [40]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 512,300 tons, down from 837,100 tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 484,100 tons, down from 804,300 tons last week; the net sales volume this year was 724,400 tons, down from 923,000 tons last week; the sales volume for the next year was 0 tons, down from 220,000 tons last week; and the quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons [42][44][46][48][50]. 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.943, indicating that it has entered the La Nina range [53]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [55][57]. - As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,200 lots, up from 14,400 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, down from 35,000 lots last week; and the net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, up from 59,400 lots last week [61][63][65].

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to experience a slight decline in production in 2025, with a projected total output of approximately 4.71 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% due to various supply and demand factors [1][3][4]. Supply - In July, the national raw coal output was 380 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 40 million tons (-9.5%) and a year-on-year decrease of 9 million tons (-3.8%). In August, the output was 390 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of about 6 million tons (-3.2%) but a month-on-month increase of 9 million tons (+2.5%) [1][3]. - The average monthly production from January to June 2025 is estimated at 401 million tons, while the average for July and August is 386 million tons. If safety inspections remain at July levels, the estimated average for September to December is also 386 million tons, leading to an annual output of about 4.71 billion tons in 2025 [1][3]. - The reduction in output is primarily from Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, with expected year-on-year declines of 3.7% and 4.6%, respectively. Coal imports are projected to decrease by approximately 15.8% in 2025, mainly due to reduced imports from Indonesia [3]. Demand - There is an expectation of increased demand due to a cold winter, with the total electricity consumption projected to grow by 5%-6% year-on-year in 2025. The demand for chemical coal remains high, with significant year-on-year increases in coal-based PVC, ethylene glycol, and methanol production [4][5]. - The average daily pig iron production is expected to remain above 240,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [5]. Inventory - Inventory pressures have eased significantly compared to the first half of the year, supporting a rebound in coal prices. Mainstream port inventories have decreased to 60.43 million tons, down from mid-May highs, and are lower than the same period last year [5]. Price - Expectations of supply contraction are raising the bottom for coal prices, with seasonal demand potentially opening up upward price movement. The central price for thermal coal is anticipated to reach 750 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter [5]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is currently at a cyclical low with high PE and low PB ratios, indicating potential for rebound as coal prices rise. Recommended stocks include flexible targets like Yanzhou Coal, Jin控 Coal, and Shanxi Coal International, as well as growth-oriented stocks like Electric Power Investment and Huayang Co., and stable long-term investments such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal [6].

Report Summary 1. Core View - Short - term, contract 001 may rebound due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, but the rebound height is limited by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the high domestic bean meal inventory. Later, attention should be paid to Sino - US policies, South American La Nina weather speculation, and US soybean yield adjustments [7]. 2. Summary by Related Content Supply - Affected by less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas after August, the estimated 2025/26 US soybean yield of 53.5 bushels per acre by USDA still has room for downward adjustment. The recent less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas is conducive to the harvest, but the USDA crop growth report is delayed due to the US government shutdown. As of October 5, the US soybean harvest progress is 38%. Brazilian soybean planting has started, and as of October 4, the sowing rate is 8.2%, higher than 5.1% last year and close to the five - year average of 9.4%. In October, domestic soybean inventory is expected to start decreasing, but the domestic bean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the bean meal supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source is uncertain [6]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in deficit, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Bean meal has high cost - performance and high feed addition ratio, and the downstream spot trading is good [7]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level. This week, the bean meal inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased and is at a high level, while the bean meal inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [7]. Macro and Policy - The Ministry of Transport announced that starting from October 14, a special ship selection fee will be charged for US ships, which is expected to increase the cost of some soybean imports and ocean freight. Trump announced that starting from November 1, 2025, a 100% tariff will be imposed on Chinese imported goods, escalating the Sino - US trade tension [7]. 3. Data Summary Basis Data - On October 10, the basis of 43% bean meal spot in Dalian was 108, in Tianjin was 78 (up 17), in Rizhao was 8 (down 3), in Zhangjiagang was - 2 (down 3), in Dongguan was - 2 (up 7), in Zhanjiang was 38, and in Fangcheng was 18 (down 3). The basis of rapeseed meal spot at noon was 186, and MJ - 5 was 168 (down 16) [4]. Spread Data - The spot spread of bean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 320 (down 10), and the spread of the main contract was 27 [5]. Other Data - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium in 2025, the domestic soybean inventory, oil mill bean meal inventory, feed enterprise bean meal inventory days, oil mill startup rate, and soybean crushing volume data are presented in the form of charts, but specific data values are not clearly summarized in the text [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend, ranging from 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans oscillated lower, affected by the deterioration of Sino - US relations and the return of the rainy season in Brazil. Next week, attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of Sino - US relations, weather conditions in South American main producing areas, and the progress of biodiesel policies [8] - This week, the price of US soybean meal oscillated with no obvious driving factors [10][11] - This week, the price of US soybean oil oscillated. There were no obvious driving factors for both long and short positions, and the current core contradiction has shifted to macro - expectations [13] - Since September 19, the USDA has suspended data updates [15][17][19] - On October 10, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose to 119.43 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 137.19 reais per bag [21][24] Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean producing areas has worsened, with a drought rate of 68%, compared to 60% last week [27] - In the next two weeks, the temperature in US producing areas will be warmer, with no threat of early frost, and precipitation in main US soybean producing areas will be low, which is conducive to crop harvesting [29][31] - The rainy season in Brazil has returned, with improved precipitation conditions, but slightly less precipitation in the central - western region [33] - Precipitation in Argentine soybean producing areas is basically normal, and sowing work is about to start [35] - As of the week ending September 26, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 62%, compared to 61% last week and 64% in the same period last year [37] Demand Factors - As of October 3, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.82 dollars per bushel, compared to 2.84 dollars last week [41] - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 512,300 tons, compared to 837,100 tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 484,100 tons, compared to 804,300 tons last week [43][45] - The net sales volume of US soybeans this year was 724,400 tons, compared to 923,000 tons last week; the sales volume for the next year was 0 tons, compared to 220,000 tons last week [47][49] - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [51] Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.068, indicating the entry into the La Nina range [54] - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [56][58] - As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,200 lots, compared to 14,400 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, compared to 35,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, compared to 59,400 lots last week [62][64][66]