1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long - trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Palm Oil**: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ★☆☆, denoting a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Corn**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Eggs**: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends, mainly affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies. Most products are expected to fluctuate within a range, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant information and market changes [2][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Beans 1 - Domestic soybeans are in short - term sideways consolidation, with stable spot prices and increasing domestic warehouse receipts. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has declined from a high level. The supply of high - protein domestic soybeans is tight, bringing a relatively strong expectation to the overall soybean market. US soybeans are mainly affected by South American weather and US soybean exports, and are expected to fluctuate strongly. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance [2] 3.2 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybeans are affected by South American weather and exports, and are expected to fluctuate strongly. The domestic soybean near - term shipping schedule crushing gross profit has deteriorated again, supporting soybean oil. The domestic soybean - palm oil price difference has adjusted from a high level. Malaysian palm oil had a slight production cut in November, but demand was weak, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. Due to flood problems in Southeast Asian producing areas, the supply side was disturbed, and prices stopped falling and rebounded. Overall, it is expected that soybean and palm oil will maintain range fluctuations [3] 3.3 Soybeans & Soybean Meal - Today's soybean futures opened high and closed low, with prices fluctuating weakly. Brazil's soybean planting rate is 78% with normal progress, while Argentina's is slow due to less rainfall. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the crushing volume has increased. The soybean meal inventory has rebounded to a high level, suppressing prices. The M2605 contract has risen to the upper edge of the shock platform, and the follow - up trend depends on US soybean exports and the impact of South American weather [5] 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Today, the near - month main contract of rapeseed meal continued to decline with position reduction, and the main contract of rapeseed oil slightly declined. The arrival of Australian rapeseed in China eased the market's concern about the tight supply of rapeseed. Rapeseed meal demand is weak, and rapeseed oil is mainly in the process of de - stocking. The supply of rapeseed oil depends on Russian crushing and exports, and the demand benefits from the seasonal peak in the fourth quarter. Overall, the rapeseed series lacks trend - driving factors in the short term and is expected to fluctuate within a range [6] 3.5 Corn - The spot price of corn in the northern port remains firm, and Northeast farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in lower - than - expected new grain supply. The quality of North China corn is poor, and the market favors high - quality Northeast grain, causing concerns about supply and transportation. The downstream corn inventory is generally very low, but the willingness to replenish inventory has increased. The new grain is still in the peak release period. In the short term, the Dalian corn futures 01 contract fluctuates at a high level, and the 03 and 05 contracts are waiting for a correction. In the medium term, the rebound range is limited, and a sharp rise in corn prices next year is not optimistic [7] 3.6 Live Pigs - The spot and futures prices of live pigs continue to weaken. With less than a month until the Winter Solstice, southern bacon - curing will gradually start, but there is also pressure on the supply side from the second - fattening of large hogs. The industry's average weight is still high, and there is a de - stocking process in the later stage. In the long - term, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a "double - bottom" feature, and it is expected that pig prices may have a second bottom - probing in the first half of next year [8] 3.7 Eggs - The near - and far - month contracts of eggs show a differentiated trend, with a total increase of over 30,000 lots in positions. The far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a decline in the laying - hen inventory in the medium - and long - term and have risen sharply. The near - month contracts are difficult to continue rising due to the premium of futures over spot prices and are trading the logic of price convergence. The current price difference between near - and far - month contracts is too large, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. Attention should be paid to the performance of the spot market for near - month contracts [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Beans (domestic): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean market is expected to be bullish in the short - term, while the US soybean market will likely oscillate with an upward bias, influenced by South American weather and export factors [2][3] - The soybean meal supply in the domestic market is ample, which exerts downward pressure on prices. The 05 contract's upward breakthrough depends on US soybean exports and potential South American production cuts [3] - The soybean and palm oil markets are expected to fluctuate within a range. Although there are some positive supply - side signals, high inventory levels may limit price rebounds [3] - The rapeseed market lacks trend - driving factors and is expected to trade in a range in the short term [5] - Corn futures are expected to remain volatile at high levels, with concerns about supply and transportation in the Northeast [6] - Live pig prices may form a double - bottom pattern, with a high probability of a second trough in the first half of next year [7] - The egg futures market shows a mixed performance, with the far - month contracts not suitable for chasing highs and the near - month contracts likely to be weak [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs [Soybean] - Domestic soybeans are in a sideways and slightly bullish trend, with stable and firm spot prices. The supply of high - protein domestic soybeans is tight, leading to optimistic market expectations [2] - US soybeans are influenced by South American weather and export factors. South American weather is dry in parts before mid - December, and overall, US soybeans are expected to be slightly bullish [2][3] [Soybean & Soybean Meal] - In the new South American season, Brazil's soybean sowing progress is normal, while Argentina's is slow due to weather. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean output is estimated to be 1.772 billion tons, a 0.9% reduction from the November forecast [3] - The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the crushing volume has increased. The soybean meal inventory has rebounded to a high level, maintaining a loose supply situation. The expected inventory at the end of December is around 900,000 tons [3] - The upward breakthrough of the 05 contract depends on US soybean exports and potential South American production cuts. It is advisable to observe for fluctuations before looking for long - entry opportunities [3] [Soybean Oil & Palm Oil] - Malaysian palm oil had a slight production cut in November, but demand was weak, resulting in inventory accumulation. Indonesia lowered its December export reference price and tax, which is beneficial for exports [3] - If the supply - side production cuts are sustained, it may signal a bottoming - out of prices. However, high overseas inventories may limit price rebounds [3] - US soybeans are expected to be slightly bullish, which will support soybean oil prices. The soybean and palm oil markets are expected to fluctuate within a range [3] [Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil] - The rapeseed market is in a weak and sideways trend due to a lack of trading catalysts. The arrival of Australian rapeseeds has eased supply concerns [5] - Rapeseed meal demand is weak as the aquaculture feed season is off - peak, and it is not competitive in terms of unit - protein price compared to soybean meal [5] - Rapeseed oil is mainly in a de - stocking phase. Supply depends on Australian rapeseed crushing and Russian rapeseed oil arrivals, while demand benefits from the seasonal peak in the fourth quarter [5] [Corn] - Corn futures are volatile at high levels, driven by strong spot prices. The supply of new grain in the north is lower than expected, and there are concerns about supply and transportation in the Northeast [6] - The 01 contract of Dalian corn futures is expected to be volatile at high levels, and it is advisable to wait and see. The 03 and 05 contracts should wait for pull - backs [6] [Live Pigs] - Live pig futures have narrow fluctuations, and spot prices are slightly lower. Southern curing will start soon, but there is also pressure from the出栏 of second - fattened pigs [7] - Historically, the pig cycle bottom often shows a double - bottom pattern. The low price in October was likely the first bottom, and there is a high probability of a second trough in the first half of next year [7] [Eggs] - Egg futures showed a sharp rise followed by a decline, with a reduction of over 10,000 lots in positions. The far - month contracts are not suitable for chasing highs due to high premiums [8] - The near - month contracts are at a premium to the spot, and the spot prices are slightly weak today. The near - month contracts may be weak [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Short - term news boosts oil prices, but long - term inventory pressure limits the rebound space and sustainability of oil prices [2] - Precious metals are supported by the expectation of Fed rate cuts and tight spot supply, showing high volatility [3] - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long - term, supported by demand and inventory factors [4] - Aluminum prices are mainly volatile, with limited industrial contradictions and macro - sentiment dominance [5] - The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and geopolitical situations, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + maintains the production plan, short - term news boosts prices, but long - term inventory pressure exists [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical risks in the short - term, and supply will be loose in the medium - term; low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant [20] - **Asphalt**: Demand in some areas drives inventory reduction, but overall, year - end supply - demand is expected to be loose [21] - **Urea**: Short - term market is strong due to downstream procurement, but long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose [22] - **Methanol**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and port inventory may suppress the market [23] - **Pure Benzene**: Price is in a volatile pattern due to supply - demand factors [24] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Cost support is strengthened, and supply - demand is in a tight balance [25] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: International oil prices drive futures price rebounds, but spot demand is hard to release [26] - **PVC &烧碱**: PVC is in a low - level range, and烧碱 is in a weak operation [27] - **PX & PTA**: PX price rebounds, PTA is cost - driven, and supply - demand situations vary in the short and medium - term [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is marginally improved, but mid - term weakness remains [29] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber price follows raw materials, and bottle - chip is cost - driven with over - capacity pressure [30] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Silver drives the strength of precious metals, and platinum is favored [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Prices are expected to rise, supported by demand and inventory factors [4] - **Aluminum**: Prices are mainly volatile, with limited industrial contradictions [5] - **Zinc**: Prices are in a range - bound state, with strong bottom support [8] - **Tin**: Prices may have short - term space, but mid - term fundamentals are general [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: Bottom support is expected to move down [17] - **Silicon Iron**: Bottom support will be tested [18] - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices rebound, but demand is weak, and supply pressure is gradually relieved [13] - **Iron Ore**: Prices are expected to be volatile, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation [14] - **Coke**: Prices may be in a weak - volatile pattern [15] - **Coking Coal**: Prices may be in a weak - volatile pattern [16] Agriculture - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach a record high, and domestic supply is sufficient. Observe the callback and look for long - position opportunities [34] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil supply - demand is weak but marginally improving; soybean oil is affected by US soybean exports and South American weather [35] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term drivers are not significant, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [36] - **Corn**: Corn futures are in a high - level shock, and pay attention to new - grain sales and trade agreements [38] - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: US cotton exports are improving, and domestic new - cotton sales are fast. Look for hedging opportunities [41] - **Sugar**: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production in Guangxi is expected to be good [42] - **Apples**: Short - term prices are strong, but long - term inventory pressure may exist [43] - **Timber**: Low inventory supports prices, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [44] - **Paper Pulp**: Prices are in a downward trend due to weak fundamentals, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [45] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFI European route shows weak price increase, and different contracts of the container shipping index have different trends [19] - **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index**: Short - term macro and geopolitical uncertainties exist, and maintain a wait - and - see and defensive strategy [46] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures show a differentiated performance, and there is a weak - volatile pattern [47]

华龙期货投资咨询部 研究报告 豆粕月报 美豆进口加速，豆粕期价震荡整理 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 2025 年 11 月豆粕期价震荡整理，11 月豆粕加权上涨 0.20%， 以 2946 报收；菜粕加权上涨 2.79%，以 2433 报收。国际市场上， 美豆连续上涨 1.55%，以 1132.25 报收，美豆粉下跌 0.22%，以 322.70 报收。 【重要资讯】： USDA11 月报告显示：全球大豆产量预计为 4.2175 亿吨，压 榨量为 3.6498 亿吨。全球大豆期末库存预估下调 200 万吨至 1.2199 亿吨，库存消费比预计为 20%。 【后市展望】： 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 01 日星期一 近期陆续有中国采购美豆的订单，自 10 月底以来预期至少已 采购 50 船以上，中国的采购需求对 CBOT 美 ...

美豆周度报告 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 01 美豆多空因素与观点 | 总体观点 | | --- | | 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；需求有望好转，下方空间有限，总体震荡偏强，区间1000-1200美分/蒲式耳 | | 利空因素 | | 1、中国购买美豆后，特朗普政府对生柴添加政策的支持力度可能减弱 | | 2、巴西雨季回归，降水改善，播种进入收尾阶段 | | 3、巴西2025/26年度种植面积预计增加 | | 利多因素 | | 1、预计本年度中国购买美豆量1200万吨，未来三年每年2500万吨以上 | | 2、阿根廷播种速度低于预期 | | 3、拉尼娜天气可能导致南美大豆减产 | Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 Special report on Guotai Juna ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the downside is limited due to expected improvement in demand. It is expected to fluctuate moderately upwards within the range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include a possible weakening of the Trump administration's support for biodiesel addition policies after China purchases US soybeans, the return of the rainy season in Brazil improving precipitation and accelerating sowing progress, and an expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - Positive factors include an expected purchase of 1.2 million tons of US soybeans by China this year and over 2.5 million tons per year in the next three years, a slower - than - expected sowing progress in Brazil, and the possibility of La Niña weather causing a reduction in South American soybean production [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - **US Soybeans**: This week, the price of US soybeans rose and then fell, with an overall increase of 22.75 cents per bushel. Before the monthly report, the market expected it to be bullish, pushing up the price. However, the reduction of export forecasts after the release of the report dampened market sentiment. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, weather conditions in South American main producing areas, and the progress of biodiesel policies [7][9]. - **US Soybean Meal**: This week, the price of US soybean meal fluctuated and rose. The market was optimistic before the release of the monthly supply - demand report, but the price fell after the report. The market chose to take profits before the weekend. Future price performance needs to closely track the quantity and rhythm of China's purchase of US soybeans [11]. - **US Soybean Oil**: This week, the price of US soybean oil fluctuated and rose slightly. China's return to the US soybean export market weakened the impetus for increased biodiesel addition, and the marginal demand for oils and fats began to deteriorate. Indonesia is expected to increase production by 10% in 2026, exceeding market expectations, and palm oil exports are poor [15]. 3.2 Supply Factors - **US Drought Situation**: The drought rate in US soybean - producing areas remained at 61%, compared with 62% last week. In the next two weeks, there will be more rain in the US, which is unfavorable for the completion of the harvest. The temperature will be warmer [28][30][34]. - **South American Precipitation**: In Brazil, precipitation is low in the central - western and northern regions and high in the eastern region. In Argentina, precipitation in the soybean - producing areas is close to normal, but less rain is forecasted in the second week [35][37]. - **Brazilian Sowing Progress**: As of the week ending November 1, the sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil was 58.4%, compared with 47.1% last week and a five - year average of 57% [39]. 3.3 Demand Factors - **US Soybean Pressing Profit**: As of November 7, the pressing profit of US soybeans was 2.02 dollars per bushel, down from 2.15 dollars last week [42]. - **US Soybean Export**: In the week ending September 26, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 611,200 tons, up from 512,300 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 1.0885 million tons, up from 984,800 tons last week. The net sales this year were 870,500 tons, up from 724,400 tons last week. The sales for the next year were 0 tons, down from 220,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China was 0 tons [44][46][48]. 3.4 Other Factors - **ENSO Index**: The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.2, indicating the entry into the La Niña range [55]. - **Soybean Planting Cost**: The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. The planting cost in the US has decreased year - on - year, and the cost in Brazil has also decreased year - on - year [57][59][61]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans was 18,200 lots, up from 14,400 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, down from 35,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, up from 59,400 lots last week [63][65][67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view is that due to the expected high - yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, cost support makes a significant decline unlikely. The market is expected to be generally oscillating with an upward bias, in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include the return of the rainy season in Brazil, improved precipitation, accelerated sowing progress, and the expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - Positive factors are the possible intensification of the biodiesel policy to support prices, the possible agreement on purchasing US agricultural products after the APEC meeting between Chinese and US leaders, and the possible reduction in South American soybean production due to La Nina weather [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans oscillated and closed higher. The market is optimistic about the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents during APEC next week, and the return of the rainy season in Brazil is expected to speed up the planting progress. Next week's focus points are the follow - up progress of Sino - US relations, the weather in South American main producing areas, and the progress of the biodiesel policy [8]. - This week, the price of US soybean meal oscillated and rose. The market is optimistic about the meeting between Chinese and US presidents during the APEC meeting in South Korea next week, and the possible delay of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy, which weakens the oil market and provides additional support for soybean meal [12]. - This week, the price of US soybean oil oscillated and declined. The possible delay of Indonesia's biodiesel B50 addition policy has raised concerns about the oil consumption outlook, putting pressure on the global oil market [14]. - Since September 19, the USDA has suspended data updates [16][18][20]. - On October 24, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, slightly increased to 119.35 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports increased to 138.66 reais per bag [22][24]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas remained unchanged, with a drought rate of 68%, the same as last week [27]. - The temperature in US producing areas will be warmer in the next two weeks, and precipitation in the Great Lakes region will be less, which is conducive to the completion of the harvest [29][31]. - In Brazil, the central - northern region has less precipitation, while the southeastern region has more precipitation. In Argentina, the precipitation in soybean - producing areas is basically normal, and the sowing work is about to start [33][35]. - As of the week ending September 26, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 62%, up from 61% last week but down from 64% in the same period last year [37]. Demand Factors - As of October 17, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.38 dollars per bushel, down from 2.72 dollars last week [41]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 512,300 tons, down from 837,100 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 484,100 tons, down from 804,300 tons last week. The net sales volume this year was 724,400 tons, down from 923,000 tons last week. The net sales volume for next year was 0 tons, down from 220,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons [44][46][48]. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.095, indicating the entry into the La Nina range [55]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [57][59]. - As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,200 lots, up from 14,400 lots last week. The net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, down from 35,000 lots last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, up from 59,400 lots last week [63][65][67].

Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic oilseed futures have shown a weak oscillating trend since October, with soybean oil futures maintaining a range of 8200 to 8400 yuan/ton due to policy expectations [1] - The domestic supply of soybean oil is relatively ample, with inventory at a medium to high level, which suppresses the upward price potential [1] - International soybean oil prices remain firm, and the slowdown in domestic oil mill crushing pace provides some support for soybean oil prices [1] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Export Challenges - The U.S. government shutdown and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions have weakened the influence of U.S. soybeans in the global pricing system, leading to a reduced impact on China's imported soybean costs [2] - From October to December, China is expected to maintain zero purchases of U.S. soybeans, relying on imports from Brazil and Argentina to fill the supply gap [2] - The decoupling of U.S. soybean pricing from Chinese imports is evident, with the pricing model now dominated by Brazilian soybean premiums and the exchange rate of the yuan [2] Group 3: Weather Predictions and Production Estimates - The U.S. Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 71% probability of La Niña weather from October to December, which may increase drought risks in major soybean-producing regions like Brazil and Argentina [3] - The Rosario Grain Exchange predicts Argentina's soybean production for the 2025/2026 season to be 47 million tons, lower than the USDA's previous estimate of 48.5 million tons [3] Group 4: Supply Adequacy - Prior to the National Day holiday, domestic purchases of Argentine soybeans increased due to a temporary cancellation of export taxes, covering the supply gap for the first quarter of next year [4] - In September, Argentina announced a reduction of the soybean export tax from 26% to zero, prompting Chinese buyers to secure at least 130,000 tons of soybean orders within a few days [4] - China's soybean imports in September reached 12.87 million tons, with imports from Brazil at 10.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, while no U.S. soybeans were imported for the first time since November 2018 [4] Group 5: Current Market Dynamics - The oilseed market currently lacks a clear direction, with stable supply and limited news impact, resulting in oscillating futures prices [5] - The recent procurement of Argentine soybeans is sufficient to meet the first-quarter demand, thus limiting the impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations on soybean prices [5] - The soybean oil market remains unchanged, with oil mills operating normally and inventory pressures persisting, leading to a lack of significant price drivers [5]

Market Performance - The three major indices opened high and fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.98%, the ChiNext Index by 1.98%, and the STAR Market 50 Index by 0.35% [2] - Over 3,800 stocks in the two markets rose, with a total trading volume of approximately 1.74 trillion yuan [2] Industry Highlights - The cultivated diamond and superhard materials sectors showed strong performance, with Huifeng Diamond rising by 29.98%, Sifangda by 19.98%, and Power Diamond by over 18% [2] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on superhard materials, effective November 8, which is expected to enhance the supply protection for the domestic superhard materials industry and strengthen market expectations for the sector's scarcity and performance certainty [2] Coal Sector - The coal sector experienced a collective surge, with major companies like Dayou Energy, Yunmei Energy, and Shanxi Black Cat all rising by 10% [2] - The cold air mass affecting the northern regions is expected to increase coal demand during the winter, as a double La Niña weather pattern may lead to a colder winter in China [3] Technology and Robotics - The CPO and computing power sectors were active, with Cambridge Technology rising by 10% and other companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication increasing by over 7% [3] - Citibank indicated potential upward demand in the optical module industry, suggesting buying opportunities after recent stock price adjustments [3] - Robotics leader UBTECH won a project for the procurement and installation of intelligent data collection and testing center equipment in Guangxi, with an order amounting to 126 million yuan [4] - UBTECH's Walker series humanoid robots have secured over 630 million yuan in orders this year, excluding a joint development project with Beijing Guodi [4] Declines in Other Sectors - The precious metals sector saw significant declines, with Hunan Silver hitting a 10% limit down, alongside other companies like Xiaocheng Technology and Western Gold experiencing heavy losses [4] - New energy-related stocks also showed weakness, with Shengxin Lithium Energy and Tianqi Lithium experiencing declines [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The overall view is that due to the expected high - yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market; however, cost support reduces the probability of a significant decline. The market is expected to be generally oscillating with an upward bias, within the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include the deterioration of Sino - US relations pressuring US soybean exports, the return of the rainy season in Brazil improving precipitation and accelerating the sowing progress, and the expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - Positive factors are the possible intensification of biodiesel policies supporting prices, the expectation of improved Sino - US relations, and the possible reduction of South American soybean production due to La Nina weather [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans oscillated and closed higher. The market started to trade on the meeting between the two heads of state during the APEC at the end of the month, and the return of the rainy season in Brazil is expected to speed up the planting progress. Next week, attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of Sino - US relations, the weather conditions in South American main producing areas, and the progress of biodiesel policies [7]. - This week, the price of US soybean meal oscillated and closed higher, mainly in an oscillating pattern [10][12]. - This week, the price of US soybean oil oscillated, with no obvious driving factors for both bulls and bears, and the current core contradiction has shifted to macro - expectations [13]. - Since September 19, the USDA has suspended data updates [15][17][19]. - On October 17, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose to 119.19 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 138.17 reais per bag [21][23]. 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has not improved, with a drought rate of 68%, the same as last week [26]. - In the next two weeks, the temperature in US producing areas will be warmer, with no threat of early frost, and precipitation in the Great Lakes region will be higher than normal [28][30]. - The rainy season in Brazil has returned, improving precipitation conditions, but precipitation in the central and northern regions is slightly less than normal [32]. - Precipitation in Argentine soybean - producing areas is basically normal, and the sowing work is about to start [34]. - As of the week of September 26, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 62%, up from 61% last week but lower than 64% in the same period last year [36]. 3.3 Demand Factors - As of October 10, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.72 dollars per bushel, down from 2.82 dollars last week [40]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 512,300 tons, down from 837,100 tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 484,100 tons, down from 804,300 tons last week; the net sales volume this year was 724,400 tons, down from 923,000 tons last week; the sales volume for the next year was 0 tons, down from 220,000 tons last week; and the quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons [42][44][46][48][50]. 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.943, indicating that it has entered the La Nina range [53]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [55][57]. - As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,200 lots, up from 14,400 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, down from 35,000 lots last week; and the net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, up from 59,400 lots last week [61][63][65].