Group 1 - The meeting between the chairman of State Grid Corporation and the chairman of China Export-Import Bank focused on enhancing cooperation in policy financial tools, overseas project financing, financial services, and strategic collaboration [1][3] - Both parties expressed their intention to deepen practical cooperation based on their previous successful collaboration, aiming for mutual benefits [1]

Trade Relations - The U.S. has agreed to impose a maximum tariff rate of 15% on most EU goods, including automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductor chips, and timber, starting September 1, 2025 [2] - The U.S. will apply the most favored nation (MFN) tariff rate or the 15% tariff rate, whichever is higher, on EU-origin products [2] Immigration Trends - The U.S. immigrant population has decreased for the first time in 50 years, dropping to 51.9 million from 53.3 million during Trump's second term [3][4] Economic Policies - China's broad fiscal expenditure exceeded 21 trillion yuan in the first seven months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 9.3% [7] - China's total import and export growth rate has been steadily increasing, achieving a 3.5% growth in the first seven months of the year [8] Energy Consumption - In July, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,226 billion kilowatt-hours, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase [11] Financial Regulations - The National Financial Regulatory Administration is actively supporting the reform of commercial health insurance and aims to establish a multi-level nursing guarantee system [9] Infrastructure Investment - A new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan will be introduced to support emerging industries and infrastructure projects [14] Housing Policies - Chengdu has set the minimum down payment ratio for public housing loans at 15%, with increased loan limits for contributors [19] Stock Market Activity - Institutions showed significant buying activity in 12 stocks, with notable net purchases in Zhongdian Xindong and Chuangyitong [33][34]

5000亿“准财政”工具将出 重点支持新兴产业、基础设施等自今年5月以来，多地围绕新型政策性金融工具开展政策宣讲会或者项目筹备会。近期，部分地方更是进一步梳理出入库项目清单，明确了申报基金的金额。从地方透露信息来看，新型政策性金融工具的资金规模为5000亿元，重点投向新兴产业、基础设施等领域，具体包括数字经济、人工智能、低空经济、消费领域、绿色低碳、农业农村、交通物流、城市基础设施等.（21财经） ...

（原标题：毕马威报告：支持房地产市场止跌回稳，仍是今年经济工作重心） 毕马威中国最新发布的2025年三季度《中国经济观察》报告（以下简称"报告"）显示，下一阶段经济运 行需要关注三方面问题：一是物价低位运行，将对下一阶段内需的修复带来挑战；二是房地产仍处于修 复阶段，今年4月以来，房地产修复进程再度出现波折；三是下半年出口或将走弱，全球经济增速放 缓，叠加美国正在设定新一轮的贸易协定，将对开拓新市场带来潜在负面影响。 报告认为，在新一轮政策性金融工具的支持下，基建投资有望企稳回升。房地产方面，将进一步因城施 策释放居民住房需求，并可能提高增量资金对房地产收储、城中村和危旧房改造等领域的支持，房地产 投资动能或将在下半年阶段性企稳。 从资金层面来看，报告预计，下半年的基建投资将有三类资金来源，一是尚待发行的增量政府债券。据 财政部披露，上半年已下达超长期特别国债资金预算6,583亿元，其中"两新"3,350亿元，"两重"为3,233 亿元，下半年还剩4,767亿元可继续推进。二是前期发行尚未使用的国债、一般债资金，上半年发行尚 未形成支出的额度在0.4万亿元，这部分资金也有望在三季度加速投放。三是关注政策性金融 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of China's public budget revenue and expenditure in the first seven months of the year, with a slight increase in local revenue but a decline in central revenue [1][2] - National general public budget revenue reached 135839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while the central budget revenue was 58538 billion yuan, down 2% [1] - Tax revenue for the same period was 110933 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3%, while non-tax revenue was 24906 billion yuan, an increase of 2% [2] Group 2 - Total public budget expenditure was 160737 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, with central expenditure at 23327 billion yuan, up 8.8% [2] - Specific areas of expenditure such as social security and employment, education, and health saw significant increases of 9.8%, 5.7%, and 5.3% respectively [3] - Government fund budget revenue was 23124 billion yuan, down 0.7%, with local government fund revenue declining by 1.8% [5] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that fiscal policy is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for timely implementation of existing policies and the introduction of new measures [5] - Recommendations include accelerating local debt issuance, considering the issuance of special government bonds, and enhancing investment in human capital to boost consumption [5][6] - The focus areas for fiscal support include increasing transfer income for residents, promoting consumption through trade-in programs, and accelerating public spending in technology and infrastructure [6]

Economic Overview - In July, industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% in June, while the service production index rose by 5.8%[1] - External demand showed unexpected strength with exports growing by 7.2%, surpassing the expected 5.9%, while internal demand weakened with retail sales increasing by only 3.7% compared to 4.8% in June[1] Consumer Trends - Retail sales growth declined from 6.4% in May to 4.8% in June and further to 3.7% in July, primarily driven by a slowdown in goods sales[1] - The sales growth of "trade-in" subsidy products fell from an average of 17.5% to 12.7%, indicating a significant impact on overall retail performance[1] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth dropped from 2.6% in June to 1.6% in July, with construction investment showing negative growth for the first time since August 2020, at -0.8%[1] - Manufacturing investment growth decreased from 7.5% in June to 6.2% in July, highlighting a divergence in investment performance across different sectors[2] Future Outlook - Despite potential pressures in Q4 due to high base effects and demand front-loading, there are three supporting factors for consumer growth in the second half of the year: gradual recovery in dining growth, the release of childbirth subsidies, and consumer loan interest subsidies[1] - The construction sector is expected to face continued pressure in August due to adverse weather conditions, but policy-driven financial tools may provide support in Q4[2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the fifth week of July, futures sentiment cooled down, and spot prices mostly had small month - on - month declines, but prices were still higher than at the end of June. Food prices reversed from a decline to an increase. Container shipping prices continued to fall, and port cargo volume decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year. In the industrial sector, the incremental measures from the Politburo meeting in July were slightly weaker than expected, causing futures sentiment to cool and investment product prices to decline. In the investment sector, typhoon and rainfall affected construction activities, leading to a continued decline in cement prices. In the real estate sector, the end - of - month sales rush for new homes was evident, while second - hand home sales continued to decline, in line with seasonality [4][34]. - For the bond market, short - term implementation of anti - involution policies, price transmission, and the impact of production control on industrial growth are worthy of attention. "Broad credit" disturbances may increase compared to July. Externally, the results of China - US economic and trade negotiations were in line with expectations, and the market reaction was muted. Export resilience remains, but its elasticity is decreasing, and the weakening of "rush exports" may gradually materialize. Internally, the strong futures market last week driven by major infrastructure projects and "anti - involution" led to spot price increases. This week, futures sentiment cooled, and spot demand weakened due to weather conditions. Although industrial product prices generally corrected, they were still higher than before July. In the future, price increase elasticity may be limited in the short term, but the recovery trend is hard to disprove, which may support equity sentiment. Urban renewal may accelerate, and the implementation of policy - based financial instruments is expected. August is the policy effect verification stage, increasing the importance of data observation [4][35]. Summary by Directory Inflation - related - Food prices reversed from a decline to an increase. The wholesale price index of 200 agricultural products and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.05% and 0.03% month - on - month respectively. The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% month - on - month, while vegetable prices rose, and the decline in fruit prices narrowed [4][10]. Import - Export related - Container shipping prices continued to decline. The CCFI index decreased by 2.3% month - on - month, and the SCFI decreased by 2.6% month - on - month. From July 21st to July 27th, port container throughput and cargo throughput decreased by 6.5% and 4.3% month - on - month respectively, but increased by 11.5% and 13.3% year - on - year. The BDI index decreased by 3.1% month - on - month, and the CDFI index increased by 0.2% month - on - month [12]. Industrial related - The price of thermal coal continued to rise. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.4% month - on - month with a narrowing increase. The price of rebar reversed from an increase to a decrease, with a 0.26% month - on - month decline in spot price. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 6.1% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened to 5.7%. Copper prices decreased month - on - month, affected by the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts and the strengthening of the US dollar. Glass prices also reversed from an increase to a decrease as futures market sentiment cooled [14][18][19]. Investment related - Cement prices continued to weaken, with a 1.40% month - on - month decline in the national cement price index and a narrowing decline. In the real estate sector, from July 25th to July 31st, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities increased by 25% month - on - month but decreased by 15.4% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand homes in 17 cities decreased by 4.6% month - on - month but increased by 5.1% year - on - year [20][29]. Consumption - From July 1st to July 27th, passenger car retail sales decreased by 19% month - on - month compared to the same period in June but increased by 9% year - on - year. From July 21st to July 27th, retail sales decreased by 30% month - on - month and increased by 5% year - on - year. Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.8% and 3.3% month - on - month respectively, boosted by factors such as a trade agreement between the US and Europe and supply - side constraints [30].

Group 1: Investment and Economic Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has fully allocated the 800 billion yuan "two heavy" construction project list, with 735 billion yuan of central budget investment also largely disbursed [1] - A fourth batch of 690 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement will be allocated in October, completing the annual plan of 300 billion yuan [2] - The NDRC aims to enhance domestic demand and support new consumption development while preventing blind following and excessive competition in emerging sectors [3][4] Group 2: Policy Implementation and Economic Monitoring - The NDRC plans to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize the economy and employment [4] - The NDRC will conduct regular economic monitoring and policy research to ensure timely responses to actual needs [4] - The NDRC is focused on optimizing the artificial intelligence ecosystem and promoting its large-scale commercial application [5][6] Group 3: Logistics and Trade - The logistics cost as a percentage of GDP has decreased to 14%, achieving the lowest level since records began, saving over 130 billion yuan in logistics costs [7] - Trade cooperation with Belt and Road Initiative countries has seen a 4.7% increase in imports and exports, totaling 11.29 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [9] Group 4: Infrastructure and Energy - The highest cross-regional electricity transmission reached 148 million kilowatts, marking a new historical high [10] - The NDRC is working on a plan to deepen the construction of a unified national market, with inter-provincial trade sales accounting for 40.4% of total sales revenue [11][12] Group 5: Market Regulation and Competition - The NDRC is committed to regulating disorderly competition among enterprises and will implement measures to clean up market access barriers [13][15] - The NDRC plans to accelerate the implementation of significant reform measures to enhance economic stability and consumer confidence [15] Group 6: Consumer Services and Economic Growth - The NDRC will focus on enhancing consumer capacity and promoting service consumption in areas such as culture, tourism, and healthcare [16] - The NDRC aims to foster a positive cycle of consumption and investment by improving infrastructure and promoting domestic products [16]

智观年中经济形势 编者按7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议研判了当前经济形势，部署了下半年经济工作。上半年中国经济顶住压力，实现了5.3%的平 稳增长。面对外部环境复杂多变、内部风险挑战增多的局面，下半年经济形势和政策走向备受瞩目。对此，围绕财政收入、固定资产投 资、产业经济、对外开放、创新动能、地区经济六个维度，中国经济时报邀请国家高端智库等权威机构专家，研判上半年经济形势，展 望下半年政策走向。 核心观点：2025年下半年财政政策，需重点关注七个方面：重视经济发展动能变化、高度重视稳定物价水平、持续创新财政发力空间、 继续重视保民生类支出、加快政府债务处置工作、积极运用政策性金融工具、重视财政政策的社会效益。 ■杨灿明 赵颖 2025年是"十四五"规划收官和"十五五"规划布局的重要年份。国内经济面临外部环境复杂严峻和内部需求有待提升等因素影响，为经济 增长带来不确定性，经济回升态势向好基础有待巩固。2025年《政府工作报告》对财政政策的定位是"持续用力、更加给力"，较2024 年"适度加力、提质增效"的表述更加积极。2025年上半年，我国财政收入边际改善，但面临的压力需重视。财政支出增速低于预算目 标，重 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of the year, fiscal expenditure was front - loaded, while fiscal revenue was weak. The general budget fiscal deficit increased year - on - year, and the broad fiscal deficit rate was at a relatively high level. In June, the growth rates of general public budget revenue and expenditure both declined, while those of government - funded revenue and expenditure increased significantly. In the second half of the year, the intensity of fiscal expenditure is expected to decline, and policy - based financial instruments are expected to be introduced in the third quarter, while other incremental fiscal policies may need to wait [1][3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. First - half Fiscal Operation - **Revenue and Expenditure Growth**: From January to June, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue was - 0.6%, remaining negative. The year - on - year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure was 8.9%, indicating front - loaded expenditure. In June, the year - on - year growth rates of broad fiscal revenue and expenditure were 2.8% and 17.6% respectively, showing marginal improvement [9]. - **Budget Completion**: Compared with the annual budget, the revenue side fell short of expectations. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of general public budget revenue was - 0.3% (the annual budget was + 0.1%), mainly due to the actual - 1.2% growth of tax revenue (the annual budget was + 3.7%) and the 3.7% growth of non - tax revenue (the annual budget was - 14.2%). The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of government bond fund revenue was - 2.4%, and it was still challenging to achieve the 0.7% annual budget growth. On the expenditure side, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure was 3.4%, slightly lower than the 4.4% annual budget growth. The growth rate of government - funded expenditure was 30%, slightly lower than the 23.1% annual budget growth, and its sustainability needs further observation [1][11]. - **Deficit and Debt**: The general budget fiscal deficit in the first half of the year was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 0.5 trillion yuan. Assuming a 4% nominal GDP growth this year, the cumulative broad fiscal deficit rate from January to June was 3.7%, at a relatively high level compared with previous years, similar to 2022, indicating strong support from debt income for fiscal expenditure. The issuance of general treasury bonds, replacement special bonds, and special treasury bonds was front - loaded, and the issuance of special bonds was neutral with an accelerating trend since the end of June [1][2][15]. 2. June Fiscal Data Review - **Revenue Side**: In June, the year - on - year growth rate of general public budget revenue turned negative (- 0.3%), but the structure improved. Tax revenue increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and non - tax revenue decreased by 3.7% year - on - year. Among taxes, personal income tax, domestic VAT, and securities trading stamp duty had relatively high growth rates. The year - on - year growth rate of government - funded revenue was 20.8%, a significant improvement, but its sustainability may be weak due to the continued weak growth of real estate investment [3][22][27]. - **Expenditure Side**: The expenditure intensity of the general public budget decreased, with a year - on - year growth rate of 0.38%. The year - on - year growth rate of government - funded expenditure increased significantly to 79.2%, mainly due to the improvement of government - funded revenue in June and the impact of the issuance of special treasury bonds since April. Structurally, traditional infrastructure expenditure continued to contract, while expenditure on science and technology and social security had relatively high growth rates [3][30]. 3. Outlook for the Second - half Fiscal Situation - **Expenditure Intensity**: The intensity of fiscal expenditure is expected to decline in the second half of the year. The net financing scale of government bonds is expected to decrease. It is estimated that the net financing of local bonds in the third and fourth quarters will be 1.7 trillion yuan and 537.4 billion yuan respectively, and that of treasury bonds will be 1.6 trillion yuan and 1.7 trillion yuan respectively. The net financing of government bonds in the third and fourth quarters will be 3.3 trillion yuan and 2.2 trillion yuan respectively, with a significant year - on - year decrease, which may drag down the year - on - year growth of fiscal expenditure. In addition, the scale of special bonds for project expenditure is also expected to decline in the second half of the year [4][34]. - **Policy Expectations**: The third quarter may enter a policy observation period. Policy - based financial instruments are expected to be introduced, but the timing is uncertain. Other incremental fiscal policies may need to wait until after the introduction of policy - based financial instruments or when the domestic economy weakens [5][41].