Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View - In the next week (December 1 - 5, 2025), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be continuously paid to China's purchases of US soybeans. For soybean meal, there is currently no other driving force, and the focus is on China's purchases of US soybeans. Additionally, it is reported that China and the US are about to sign a soybean trade agreement, so the progress of this event should be monitored. For soybeans, the spot price is stable. The increase in state - reserve purchase points and the slight increase in the purchase price of some protein soybeans have a positive impact on the spot market. The disk situation depends on Sino - US trade sentiment [1][5]. Summary by Related Contents 1. Futures Price Changes Last Week (November 24 - 28, 2025) - US soybean futures prices rose slightly. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of November 28, the main January 2026 contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 0.95%, while the main January 2026 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decrease of 0.38%. - Domestic soybean meal futures prices were slightly stronger, and soybean futures prices were neutral. In the week of November 28, the main m2601 contract of soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.06%, and the main a2601 contract of soybeans had a weekly decrease of 0.02% [1]. 2. International Soybean Market Fundamentals Last Week (November 24 - 28, 2025) - China continued to purchase US soybeans, which was positive for US soybeans. From November 24 to 28, China purchased a total of about 435,000 tons of US soybeans (all for delivery in the 2025/26 season). - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased slightly week - on - week, with a neutral impact. As of the week of November 28, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost decreased slightly week - on - week, and the average margin of disk crushing increased slightly week - on - week. - The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans was still slow, with a slightly positive impact. As of the week of November 20, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 81%, compared with 71% in the previous week and about 86% in the same period last year. Irregular rainfall in most soybean plantations in the Brazilian Cerrado limited the sowing progress and raised concerns about yields. - The planting progress of Argentine soybeans was slow, with a slightly positive impact. As of the week of November 19, the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 24.6%, compared with about 35.8% in the same period last year. - The weather forecast for the main soybean - producing areas in South America: In the next two weeks (November 28 - December 12), precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be low, and the temperature will be "partially high (November 28 - December 2) and mostly normal"; precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina will be basically normal (high at the end of November and decreasing in early December), and the temperature will fluctuate around the average. Overall, the weather in the producing areas is not a major issue, with a neutral impact [1]. 3. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market Situation Last Week (November 24 - 28, 2025) - **Trading volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of November 28, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 120,000 tons, compared with about 240,000 tons in the previous week. - **Pick - up volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of November 28, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 188,000 tons, compared with about 190,000 tons in the previous week. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of November 28, the weekly average basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about - 10 yuan/ton, compared with about 3 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 153 yuan/ton in the same period last year. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased both week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of November 21, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 1.02 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of about 14% and a year - on - year increase of about 49%. - **Crushing volume**: The weekly crushing volume of soybeans decreased, and it is expected to decrease next week. As of the week of November 28, the weekly crushing volume of domestic soybeans was about 2.2 million tons (2.33 million tons in the previous week and 1.89 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 61% (64% in the previous week and 54% in the same period last year). Next week (November 29 - December 5), the expected crushing volume of soybeans in oil mills is about 2.14 million tons (1.66 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 59% (47% in the same period last year) [2][3]. 4. Domestic Soybean Spot Market Situation Last Week (November 24 - 28, 2025) - **Soybean price**: The soybean price was stable. The net - grain purchase price of soybeans in some parts of Northeast China was in the range of 3,960 - 4,080 yuan/ton, the net - grain purchase price in some parts of Inner China was in the range of 4,860 - 5,060 yuan/ton, and the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans in the sales area was in the range of 4,460 - 4,680 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged from the previous week. - **State - reserve purchase**: The number of state - reserve purchase points continued to increase, and the purchase price of some protein soybeans was raised, which had a positive impact on the spot market. Two new state - reserve purchase points were added on November 28, and the purchase price of some protein soybeans increased. - **Farmer and trader behavior**: Farmers in the Northeast production area were reluctant to sell, and traders had slow buying and selling. Many grass - roots farmers showed obvious reluctance to sell, waiting for price increases. Most traders reported slow procurement and slow sales. - **Market demand**: The demand in the northern sales area increased, while that in the southern area was stable. In the northern market, the sales of Northeast soybeans were acceptable due to the increase in demand for soy products caused by the drop in temperature. In the southern region, the sales were slow, and there were no new signs of demand for terminal soy products in many places [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the hog market, indicating that the inventory reduction node has arrived, and the near - term pressure is expanding. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a bearish view on the market [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Hog Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 11,430 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 11,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 11,760 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of hog 2601 is 11,540 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; hog 2603 is 11,365 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; hog 2605 is 12,060 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of hog 2601 is 92,861 lots, an increase of 40,389 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest is 128,058 lots, a decrease of 2,774 lots. For hog 2603, the trading volume is 41,967 lots, an increase of 23,281 lots, and the open interest is 124,616 lots, an increase of 2,786 lots. For hog 2605, the trading volume is 22,335 lots, an increase of 11,915 lots, and the open interest is 69,132 lots, an increase of 1,973 lots [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of hog 2601 is - 110 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton; the basis of hog 2603 is 65 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton; the basis of hog 2605 is - 630 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton. The spread between hog 1 - 3 is 175 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton; the spread between hog 3 - 5 is - 695 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with a range of [-2, 2]. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The log futures are currently in a low - level oscillation. Last week, the spot price was adjusted downward. The supply side has a continuous increase in arrivals, and inventory accumulation is putting significant pressure on the market. Demand remains resilient. The valuation of the futures contract is relatively low, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices forms a certain support for import costs. Overall, in the context of a weak fundamental situation, the log futures market is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 25, the prices of log 2601, log 2603, and log 2605 were 764.5, 777.0, and 792.0 respectively, with decreases of - 0.46%, - 0.26%, and - 0.38% compared to November 24 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 25 compared to November 24, with a 0.00% change [2]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 25 was 7.094 yuan, a decrease of 0.01 yuan compared to November 24, and the import theoretical cost was 808.91 yuan, a decrease of 1.28 yuan [2]. Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In October, the port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, a 13.99% increase compared to September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, a 17.39% increase compared to the previous period [2]. - **Inventory**: As of November 21, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 303 million cubic meters, an 8 - million - cubic - meter increase compared to November 14, with a 2.71% increase. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also had corresponding changes [2][3]. Demand - The daily average outbound volume of logs in China decreased by 0.12 million cubic meters from November 14 to November 21, a 2% decrease. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [3]. Forecast - From November 24 to November 30, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 6, a 54% week - on - week decrease, and the arrival volume was about 21.7 million cubic meters, a 48% week - on - week decrease [3].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Last week, the log futures remained in a low - level oscillation, and the spot price decreased. The supply side saw a continuous increase in arrivals, inventory accumulated, and the market was under significant pressure. Demand continued to show resilience. The current valuation of the futures was relatively low, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices provided some support for import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures. Overall, in the context of a weak fundamental situation, the log futures are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 24th, compared with November 21st, the price of log 2601 was 768.0, down 0.5 or - 0.07%; log 2603 was 779.0, up 1.5 or 0.19%; log 2605 was 795.0, up 1.5 or 0.19%. The 01 - 03 spread was - 11.0, down 2.0; the 01 - 05 spread was - 27.0, down 2.0; the 03 - contract basis was - 29.0, down 1.5; the 01 - contract basis was - 18.0, up 0.5 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on November 24th compared with November 21st. The CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter also remained unchanged [2]. - **Import Cost**: On November 24th, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.106, down 0.01 or 0% compared with November 23rd; the import theoretical cost was 810.19, down 0.83 or 0% [2]. Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In October, the port shipment volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, up 24.7 million cubic meters or 13.99% compared with September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54.0, up 8.0 or 17.39% [2]. - **Inventory**: As of November 21st, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 303 million cubic meters, up 8 million cubic meters or 2.71% compared with November 14th. In Shandong, it was 206.5 million cubic meters, up 11.1 million cubic meters or 5.68%; in Jiangsu, it was 83.18 million cubic meters, down 0.5 million cubic meters or - 0.57% [2][3]. Demand - As of November 21st, the daily average出库 volume of logs in China was 6.44 million cubic meters, down 0.12 million cubic meters or - 2% compared with November 14th. In Shandong, it was 3.59 million cubic meters, down 0.08 million cubic meters; in Jiangsu, it was 2.36 million cubic meters, down 0.08 million cubic meters [3]. Forecast of Arrivals - From November 24th to November 30th, 2025, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 6, 7 less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 54%; the total arrival volume was about 21.7 million cubic meters, 20.1 million cubic meters less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 48% [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Last week, log futures maintained a low - level oscillation, and spot prices declined. The supply side saw a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. Demand remained resilient. The current valuation of the futures was relatively low, and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices provided some support for import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures. In general, under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures and Spot Prices - On November 21st, the main LG2601 contract of log futures closed at 768.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 3.5 yuan per cubic meter. The prices of some other specifications of radiata pine logs decreased, while the prices of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was also 750 yuan per cubic meter [2][3] Import Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 21st was 7.113 yuan, and the import theoretical cost (calculated with a 15% over - length) was 811.02 yuan, showing little change compared with the previous day [2] Supply - In October, the port shipment volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, a 13.99% increase from September. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 17.39% to 54. From November 17th - 23rd, 2025, the pre - arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 13 ships, a 30% increase from the previous week, and the arrival volume was about 46.5 million cubic meters, a 48% increase [2][3] Inventory - As of November 14th, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 295 million cubic meters, a 0.68% increase from the previous week. Shandong's inventory increased by 2.04% to 195.4 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's inventory increased by 1.46% [2][3] Demand - As of November 14th, the daily average log out - bound volume was 6.56 million cubic meters, a 1% decrease from the previous week. Demand decreased month - on - month [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the performance of the black sector continued to diverge. The weekly increase of the rebar main contract was 0.1%, hot - rolled coil rose 0.4%, iron ore increased 1.7%, coke fell 3.3%, and coking coal dropped 7.5%. The supply - demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed that production and demand increased month - on - month, inventory decreased, and the inventory depletion speed improved compared with the previous period. The molten iron data remained stable, and steel mills had little willingness to actively reduce or limit production. Molten iron production in November may run stably. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil was at a neutral level compared with the same period, with limited basis repair drive. Due to the lack of macro themes and the loosening of the coking coal supply end, the futures price weakened first [2]. - The steel market continued its dull trend. The downstream demand data of real estate, infrastructure, home appliances, etc. further weakened, and the overall black market was still suppressed by weak demand. In the short term, the contradictions in steel inventory, cost, and basis were relatively limited, making it difficult to provide a strong upward or downward driving force. The upward driving force of raw material restocking and the downward driving force of industrial negative feedback may become the focus of the next - stage market game. During the process of waiting for the accumulation of contradictions, the market may maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Monthly Data | Product | Monthly Output (10,000 tons) | Monthly YoY (%) | Cumulative Output (10,000 tons) | Cumulative YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pig Iron | 6555 | - 7.9 | 71137 | - 1.8 | | Crude Steel | 7200 | - 12.1 | 81787 | - 3.9 | | Steel | 11864 | - 0.9 | 121759 | 4.7 | | Steel Imports | 50 | - 6.2 | 504 | - 11.9 | | Steel Exports | 978 | - 12.3 | 9774 | 6.6 | [4] 3.2 Five - Major Steel Products Weekly Data | Product | Weekly Output (tons) | Output Change | Output Cumulative YoY | Weekly Consumption (tons) | Consumption Change | Consumption Cumulative YoY | Inventory (tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2079600 | 79600 | - 3% | 2307900 | 144200 | - 6% | 5533400 | - 228300 | 24.32% | | Wire Rod | 789300 | 3600 | - 7% | 890000 | 15300 | - 8% | 1127000 | - 95800 | 18% | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 3160100 | 23500 | 1% | 3244200 | 108300 | 1% | 4021100 | - 84100 | 28% | | Cold - Rolled Coil | 845300 | 5700 | 1.79% | 856200 | - 7700 | 1.06% | 1709800 | - 10900 | 15.64% | | Medium and Heavy Plate | 1624800 | 42900 | 4.45% | 1648200 | 75500 | 4.33% | 1939700 | - 23400 | 4.51% | | Total | 8499100 | 155300 | - 0.06% | 8940000 | 34000 | - 1.22% | 14330000 | - 442500 | 20.48% | [5] 3.3 Steel Production Profit - On November 20, 2025, the profit changes of different steel products in different regions were as follows: for rebar - blast furnace, the changes in East China, North China, and Central China were - 3, 63, and 175 respectively; for rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity, the changes were - 7, 4, and 66; for rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity, the changes were - 52, - 73, and - 67; for hot - rolled coil - blast furnace, the changes were 4, - 34, and 85 [20]. 3.4 Steel Demand 3.4.1 Real Estate High - Frequency Data - The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities compared with the same period last year was 7% [27]. - The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the land transaction area in 100 cities was 14% [27]. 3.4.2 Cement and Concrete Demand - The marginal improvement of cement out - bound volume, with a current cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25% [30]. - The concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with an absolute level similar to the same period last year and a current cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9% [30]. 3.4.3 Steel Exports - In October, the steel export volume decreased month - on - month and was lower than the same period last year [36]. - After October, the domestic - foreign price difference fell again [36]. 3.5 Steel Inventory 3.5.1 Rebar Basis - The rebar basis remained stable this week, with limited fluctuations in both the futures and spot markets [50]. - After November, the basis usually weakens. During the basis convergence stage, the futures market usually fluctuates upward. Currently, rebar production is lower than the same period last year, and it is expected that the inventory will enter a normal depletion stage. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term basis is expected to remain stable [50]. 3.5.2 Hot - Rolled Coil Basis - The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract remained stable and weak. This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory in East China remained stable. The poor inventory depletion of hot - rolled coil recently put some pressure on the spot market, causing the basis to weaken [54]. 3.5.3 Rebar Month - Spread - The 1 - 5 month - spread of rebar rebounded from a low level this week [60]. - The recent decrease in rebar inventory and the decline in the year - on - year inventory growth rate are conducive to the positive spread of the month - spread [60]. 3.5.4 Hot - Rolled Coil Month - Spread - The 1 - 5 month - spread of hot - rolled coil changed little and was slightly at a discount. The overall high inventory of hot - rolled coil suppressed the month - spread [62].

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of wheat futures prices and the impact of global supply on these prices, indicating a downward trend after a significant rise earlier in November [5][6] - It highlights the winter wheat emergence rate and crop conditions, noting a slight decline in the percentage of crops rated as good compared to the previous year [6] - The article also mentions the recent sales to China and the expected record wheat production in India, which may affect global wheat supply dynamics [7] Wheat Futures Prices - Wheat futures prices have remained stable or slightly declined, with December soft red winter wheat (SRW) at $5.27 per bushel, Kansas hard red winter wheat (HRW) down 4 cents to $5.11 per bushel, and hard red spring wheat (HRS) steady at $5.65 per bushel [5] - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December corn fell 5 cents to $4.25 per bushel, while January soybeans remained unchanged at $11.25 per bushel [5] Crop Conditions - The winter wheat emergence rate is currently at 79%, slightly below the five-year average of 84%, with about 45% of the crop rated in good condition, down from 49% last year [6] - The USDA projects total U.S. wheat exports for the 2025/26 marketing year to reach 24.5 million tons, with current contracts accounting for 60% of this total [6] Export Activity - Recent export sales include 132,000 tons of soft white wheat and 462,000 tons of soybeans to China, scheduled for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year [7] - The article notes that the Pacific Northwest region's demand remains stable, while the Gulf region is relatively sluggish [5][7] Global Supply Dynamics - India is expected to achieve a record wheat production of 117.5 million tons due to expanded planting areas and favorable growing conditions, improving its wheat inventory [7] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has strengthened to 2270 points, the highest in nearly two years, driven by increased demand for soybeans from China [7] Currency and Market Sentiment - The U.S. dollar index closed at 100.2, with market sentiment indicating that the likelihood of a rate cut in December remains low despite mixed employment data [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the contradictions in the live - hog spot market continue to accumulate, and the market will experience short - term fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 12,080 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 11,600 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 12,560 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live - hog 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 11,955 yuan/ton, 11,555 yuan/ton, and 12,070 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 90 yuan/ton, 90 yuan/ton, and 65 yuan/ton [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live - hog 2601 is 75,909 lots, a decrease of 642 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 130,519 lots, a decrease of 5,241 lots from the previous day; for live - hog 2603, the trading volume is 18,458 lots, an increase of 2,883 lots, and the open interest is 108,361 lots, a decrease of 797 lots; for live - hog 2605, the trading volume is 11,068 lots, an increase of 2,154 lots, and the open interest is 61,105 lots, an increase of 555 lots [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of live - hog 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 125 yuan/ton, 525 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 35 yuan/ton; the 1 - 3 spread is 400 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change, and the 3 - 5 spread values are 0, - 515, 25, 400 yuan/ton [1][4]. 3.2 Market Information In September, the national feed production of the Feed Industry Association was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [3].

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on non-ferrous metals (aluminum) by New Era Futures Research, dated November 7, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the short term, alumina is expected to run weakly and fluctuate, while Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly with fluctuations. In the long term, in the context of positive macro - sentiment, Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly with fluctuations, and alumina will run weakly and fluctuate before large - scale production cuts [17] Summary by Directory Aluminum Raw Material Supply - As of October 31, the port inventory of bauxite was 27.3584 million tons, a decrease of 359,300 tons from the previous week. As of the end of September, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 23.86 million tons, at a historical high [6] - Overseas bauxite supply is still sufficient, and with high inventory, the price of Guinea bauxite has declined recently, weakening cost support [16] Alumina Supply - As of November 7, the operating rate of alumina enterprises was 85.25%, slightly down from the previous week. The total inventory of alumina was 4.788 million tons, an increase of 56,000 tons from the previous week [9] - The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level, but the weekly output decreased by 4,000 tons to 1.735 million tons due to the reduction of the roasting furnace load rate of some enterprises. The supply - over - demand pressure of alumina still exists, and it is expected to continue to run weakly and fluctuate [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - As of the end of October, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 98.24%, remaining at a high level. As of September, China's primary aluminum production was 3.644 million tons, imports were 246,800 tons, and inventory was 591,000 tons [12] - As of November 7, LME aluminum inventory was 548,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons from the previous week; SHFE aluminum inventory was 113,300 tons, a decrease of 239 tons from the previous week; COMEX aluminum inventory was 6,675 tons, an increase of 25 tons from the previous week. Overall, electrolytic aluminum inventory showed a destocking trend this week [14] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is basically stable. Due to environmental protection restrictions, high aluminum prices, and the end of the peak season, the terminal demand is expected to weaken, and the proportion of molten aluminum may decline. In the context of positive macro - sentiment, the demand support for electrolytic aluminum is weakened, but the supply is expected to be tight due to overseas production cuts, and it is expected to run strongly with fluctuations [16] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Alumina runs weakly and fluctuates; Shanghai aluminum runs strongly with fluctuations. - Medium - and long - term: Pay attention to the pace of US dollar interest rate cuts. In the context of positive macro - sentiment, Shanghai aluminum runs strongly with fluctuations; alumina runs weakly and fluctuates before large - scale production cuts [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices fluctuate and rise after opening low. In November, the industrial silicon market still faces inventory accumulation pressure. Although supply may decline slightly and demand may remain stable, the increase in supply in the spot market may lead to inventory accumulation and put pressure on spot prices. However, there is cost - side support. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips when the price drops to around 8500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices fluctuate and decline. Currently, futures are at a premium to the spot average. In November, supply pressure decreases, but demand also drops. The overall supply - demand is weak, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Futures can be bought on dips near the lower edge of the range; options can sell put options around 50000 to earn premiums; the equity side can buy photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, or related stocks [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices are weakly volatile, with low demand and obvious excess. The market is under pressure. In the medium - term, downstream demand will maintain the previous rigid - demand pattern. The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered. For glass, the news of production line shutdown in Shahe has a short - term emotional impact on the market, but in the long - term, there will be production line restarts, which will put pressure on supply. The deep - processing orders are seasonally weak, and the low - e开工率 is low. In November, there is still some peak - season demand expectation. Pay attention to the demand performance after price cuts. In the long - term, the glass industry needs capacity clearance. Short - term long - buying opportunities on rebounds can be grasped [4]. Logs - Log futures fluctuate. The main benchmark delivery product spot prices are unchanged. Last week, inventory increased slightly, and demand decreased slightly. The supply of arriving ships is increasing. The market is under pressure, but the price difference between domestic and foreign markets provides some support. Log futures are expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend [5]. Natural Rubber - In the short - term, cost - side supports rubber prices due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. In the long - term, there is an expectation of increased supply. Demand is weak at the beginning of the month, and the replacement demand for all - steel tires in the north will further weaken. Dark - colored rubber has shown an inventory accumulation inflection point, and rubber prices may decline further. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, the price may run around 15000 - 15500 [7]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The basis of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9450 yuan/ton on November 3 compared to October 31. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 11.43%. The basis decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 20.00%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - year industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8800 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.00% [1]. Inter - month Spreads - The spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.33%; the spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.67%; the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 15 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%; the spread of 2603 - 2604 increased by 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 250.00% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 3.14 million tons, a growth of 7.46%; Xinjiang's production increased by 3.24 million tons, a growth of 15.94%; Yunnan's production decreased by 0.57 million tons, a decline of 9.60%; Sichuan's production decreased by 0.10 million tons, a decline of 1.91%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 0.06 million tons, a decline of 0.29%; polysilicon production increased by 0.40 million tons, a growth of 3.08%; recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 4.60 million tons, a growth of 7.48%; industrial silicon exports decreased by 0.64 million tons, a decline of 8.36% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.03 million tons, a decline of 0.28%; Yunnan's increased by 0.05 million tons, a growth of 1.47%; social inventory decreased by 0.10 million tons, a decline of 0.18%; warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.55 million tons, a decline of 2.31%; non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.45 million tons [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52250 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50500 yuan/kg; the N - type material basis increased by 345 yuan/kg, a growth of 8.29% [2]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads - The main contract decreased by 345 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.61%; the spread of the current month - the first - continuous contract decreased by 140 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.62%; the spread of the first - continuous - the second - continuous contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton, a decline of 109.09%; the spread of the second - continuous - the third - continuous contract decreased by 160 yuan/ton, a decline of 84.21% [2]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: Silicon wafer production decreased by 0.49 million tons, a decline of 3.33%; polysilicon production decreased by 0.13 million tons, a decline of 4.41%. Monthly: Polysilicon production increased by 0.40 million tons, a growth of 3.08%; imports increased by 0.03 million tons, a growth of 28.46%; exports decreased by 0.08 million tons, a decline of 28.16%; net exports decreased by 0.11 million tons, a decline of 56.83%. Silicon wafer production increased by 1.60 million tons, a growth of 2.71%; imports decreased by 0.01 million tons, a decline of 17.96%; exports remained unchanged; net exports increased by 0.01 million tons, a growth of 1.96%; demand decreased by 1.71 million tons, a decline of 2.79% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.30 million tons, a growth of 1.16%; silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.46 million tons, a growth of 2.49% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - North China's glass price remained unchanged at 1130 yuan/ton; East China's decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.80%; glass 2505 increased by 7 yuan/ton, a growth of 0.57%; glass 2509 increased by 2 yuan/ton, a growth of 0.15%; the 05 basis decreased by 7 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.86% [4]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - North China's soda ash price remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton; East China's decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.80%; soda ash 2505 decreased by 26 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.98%; soda ash 2509 decreased by 21 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.60%; the 05 basis increased by 26 yuan/ton, an increase of 162.50% [4]. Supply - Soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.72%; weekly production decreased by 1.3 million tons, a decline of 1.71%; float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged; photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 750 tons, a decline of 0.84%; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 0.5 yuan, a decline of 2.50% [4]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 296.6 million tons, a growth of 4.72%; soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 4.2 million tons, a growth of 2.54%; soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons, a decline of 3.18% [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices declined. The 11 - 01 spread increased by 2.5 yuan; the 01 contract basis increased by 5.5 yuan. Spot prices of some radiata pine and spruce in ports remained unchanged [5]. Supply - Port shipments decreased by 24.7 million cubic meters, a decline of 13.99%; the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8, a growth of 17.39%. As of October 31, the national coniferous log inventory increased by 40,000 cubic meters to 2.88 million cubic meters. From November 3 - 9, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 2, a week - on - week increase of 13%; the arrival volume increased by 77,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 16% [5]. Demand - As of October 31, the daily log出库 volume was 62,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,000 cubic meters compared to last week [5]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai remained unchanged at 14650 yuan/ton; the whole - latex basis decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.30%; the Thai standard mixed rubber price decreased by 300 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.01%; the non - standard price difference decreased by 310 yuan/ton, a decline of 229.63% [7]. Inter - month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton, a growth of 3.57%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 28.57%; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, a growth of 21.43% [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 2,000 tons, a decline of 0.43%; Indonesia's decreased by 8,500 tons, a decline of 4.30%; India's increased by 5,000 tons, a growth of 11.11%; China's increased by 12,200 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.26%; the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.24%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 8.59 million pieces, a growth of 9.10%; in September, tire exports decreased by 671,000 pieces, a decline of 10.65%. In August, natural rubber imports increased by 75,000 tons, a growth of 14.41%; in September, imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 80,000 tons, a growth of 12.12% [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded - area inventory increased by 15,439 tons, a growth of 3.57%; natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,015 tons, a growth of 4.73%; the bonded - warehouse出库 rate in Qingdao decreased by 1.50%; the general - trade入库 rate increased by 1.99%; the general - trade出库 rate increased by 3.11% [7].