油价在早盘下跌，美国和伊朗定于周二晚些时候在日内瓦举行直接会谈。布伦特原油下跌0.9%，至每 桶68美元；西得州中质油下跌0.8%，至每桶62.66美元。"因春节假期导致流动性稀薄，限制了价格的更 大波动，"荷兰国际集团分析师表示。但紧张局势依然严峻，短期内油价可能保持波动。据媒体报道， 伊朗周一在重要的 石油运输咽喉要道霍尔木兹海峡举行了实弹军事演习，加剧了外界对若无法达成外 交解决方案，该地区石油供应可能中断的担忧。投资者也在关注由美国斡旋的俄罗斯和乌克兰官员之间 的会谈。 ...

机构观点 国信证券2月2日发布的石化化工行业研报指出，2026年地缘风险叠加OPEC+减产预期，布伦特油价中 枢预计维持在55-65美元/桶，建议关注炼油炼化板块供给侧优化机会。最新市场观点(截至2月14日)显 示，机构对华锦股份评级偏中性，盈利预测方面，8家机构平均预计2025年净利润亏损18.03亿元，但 2027年有望扭亏为盈。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 经济观察网近7天，华锦股份（000059）主要热点包括中东地缘政治风险对油价的潜在影响及公司股东 结构变化。2026年2月11日，金十数据报道指出，中东冲突升级可能引发油价大幅飙升情景，如伊朗关 闭霍尔木兹海峡或打击伊拉克石油设施，将冲击全球石油供应(该地区供应全球约三分之一石油)，对石 油化工行业构成外部风险。2026年2月13日，公司披露截至2月10日股东总数为40,814户，较1月30日减 少1,391户(减幅3.3%)，反映股权集中度小幅提升。 股票近期走势 华锦股份股价在近7天(2月7日至2月13日)呈现震荡走势。2月13日收盘价5.83元，单日下跌2.18%，区间 最高价为2月11日的6.10元，最低价为2月10日的5.8 ...

来源：经济观察网 机构观点 机构观点出现分化。经济观察网2月13日数据显示，减持或卖出评级占比48%，目标均价84.57美元低于 当前股价，部分机构对估值持谨慎态度。盈利预测显示，2026年第一季度净利润预计同比下滑 24.32%，反映市场对远期业绩的担忧。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 股价在近7天呈现显著波动。根据实时行情数据，帝国石油于2月11日收盘价创历史新高119.61美元（单 日涨幅4.39%），但2月12日回调至116.35美元（单日跌2.73%），2月13日回升至119.76美元（单日涨 2.93%）。近5日累计涨幅6.28%，年初至今累计涨幅38.76%。成交方面，2月11日成交额达8479万美 元，量比1.01，显示买盘集中；技术面显示20日涨幅24.39%，突破前期高点后短期调整。 财报分析 公司2025年第四季度财报显示营收178.13亿元，同比增长11.9%；净利润12.23亿元，同比增长23.2%。 全年毛利率21.23%，净资产收益率（ROE）14.37%，经营活动现金流48亿美元，股息率1.85%，凸显盈 利稳健性与股东回报能力。 经济观察网 近期帝国石油（IMO ...

Strategic Progress - The company announced a slight reduction in its five-year investment plan to $109 billion, with 71.6% (approximately $78 billion) allocated to exploration and production, focusing on developing Brazil's pre-salt deepwater oil fields and plans to add eight offshore production platforms by 2030 [2] Company Performance Targets - The company raised its short-term oil production target for 2026 from 2.4 million barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day, with an expected peak production of 2.7 million barrels per day by 2028, driven by new project launches such as the sixth phase of the Búzios field, which is set to commence production by December 31, 2025 [3] Capital Allocation - The total expected common stock dividend payout for the 2026-2030 period has been revised down to $45-50 billion, reflecting a reduction from the previous plan, and no additional dividends have been committed, indicating a shareholder return strategy under revised oil price assumptions (e.g., Brent crude oil price expected to drop to $63 per barrel in 2026) [4] Policy and Regulation - The upcoming 2026 Brazilian presidential election may introduce policy uncertainties, with the company facing pressure to balance government growth expectations and investor dividend demands, potentially leading to capital expenditure cuts or enhanced resilience against low oil prices [5]

市场分析师们正用放大镜审视着每个细节。美国能源信息署(EIA)最新报告显示，2026年全球原油库存可能突破10亿桶大关，供需失衡的阴影始 终挥之不去。但地缘政治的蝴蝶效应正在改写游戏规则——伊朗核设施遇袭传闻、沙特阿美油田维护计划、委内瑞拉制裁松动的多重变量，让 油价预测变得如同在迷雾中航行。值得关注的是，俄罗斯"影子船队"正在通过非洲港口转运原油，这种"游击战术"能否突破欧盟制裁尚存悬念。 在加油站排队的长龙里，车主们的情绪如同油价曲线般起伏。有人翻出手机计算器反复核算涨幅，有人对着油价牌摇头苦笑，更有人开始研究 电动车补贴政策。这种集体焦虑背后，折射出能源转型期的深层阵痛。当国际油价在60-70美元区间反复拉锯，国内成品油调价机制既要平衡市 场规律，又要兼顾民生诉求，这场多方博弈的终章远未到来。 国际原油市场正上演着惊心动魄的"冰火两重天"。美伊关系的剑拔弩张让霍尔木兹海峡运输通道随时可能"断流"，欧盟对俄罗斯能源制裁的升级 更让全球供应链雪上加霜。2月10日美原油单日飙升1.45%至64.42美元/桶，布伦特原油同步突破69美元关口，地缘风险溢价如同滚烫的岩浆注入 市场。但戏剧性转折在次日降临，美元指数 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 rose 1.61% to close at 6,124 yuan/ton. Last week, the operating rates of petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene increased month-on-month, leading to an increase in domestic pure benzene production. The operating rates of downstream styrene, aniline, and adipic acid increased slightly, while those of caprolactam and phenol decreased to varying degrees. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream changed little month-on-month. Affected by delayed resource arrivals at ports, the inventory at East China ports decreased month-on-month last week, but the inventory pressure remained high. The profit of petroleum benzene increased month-on-month, and the profit level was acceptable. This week, some units of Sinochem Quanzhou and Zhejiang Petrochemical will restart, and the capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene is expected to continue to rise. The restarted 900,000-ton styrene unit is equivalent to less than the restarted capacity of pure benzene; although some caprolactam units will restart, the overall operating level is still under the negative pressure of the PA6-polyamide industry chain; the operating loads of phenol and aniline are expected to change little. Overall, the supply-demand balance of domestic pure benzene is expected to remain loose. In terms of cost, the market is waiting for the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran. The weekly API crude oil inventory increased month-on-month, and the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil fluctuated slightly yesterday. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices, and the daily K-line should pay attention to the support around 6,000 and the resistance around 6,260 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 6,124 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 6,080 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 12,382 lots, down 9,350 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 18,851 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 6,225 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan from the previous day; in the North China market, it was 6,035 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; in the South China market, it was 6,150 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; in the Northeast region, it was 6,060 yuan/ton. The FOB mid-price of pure benzene in South Korea was 764 US dollars/ton, and the CFR mid-price of pure benzene in China was 765.89 US dollars/ton, up 1.97 US dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR mid-price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 72.43 US dollars/ton, and the spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 612.38 US dollars/barrel, up 14.5 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 75.4%, up 2.4 percentage points from the previous week; the weekly output was 44.31 tons, up 1.41 tons; the port inventory was 30.5 tons; the production cost was 5,331.4 yuan/ton, up 185.4 yuan; the production profit was 647 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene was 69.96%, up 0.68 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 73.16%, down 0.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 86%, down 2.29 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 89.04%, up 0.51 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 69.1%, up 0.6 percentage points [2] Industry News - From January 30th to February 5th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene increased by 2.40% month-on-month to 75.40%, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene increased by 0.21% month-on-month to 56.47%. From January 31st to February 6th, the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 0.02% month-on-month to 74.95%. As of February 9th, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 29.7 tons, up 0.34% from the previous week. From January 30th to February 5th, the profit of domestic petroleum benzene increased by 114 yuan/ton month-on-month to 647 yuan/ton [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in oil prices reflect a complex interplay of market psychology and geopolitical factors, with potential implications for consumer behavior and investment strategies [1][6]. Market Dynamics - Last week, WTI crude oil futures experienced a significant drop of over 5%, marking the largest single-day decline in recent times, driven by rising U.S. crude oil production and a rebound in the dollar [1][6]. - Following the initial drop, oil prices rebounded unexpectedly on Tuesday and Wednesday, recovering nearly all losses, but then fell again on Thursday and exhibited a mixed performance on Friday [3][6]. - The volatility in oil prices has led to fluctuating investor sentiment, oscillating between panic and hope, which is intricately linked to the price movements [3][6]. Geopolitical Influences - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to impact market sentiment, with recent talks between Iran and the U.S. aimed at easing nuclear tensions, while U.S. maritime advisories add uncertainty [6]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy signals, including a notable drop in the dollar index, further complicate the market landscape, intertwining with oil price fluctuations [6]. Consumer Impact - Domestic consumers are closely monitoring oil price trends, with expectations of a potential increase in gasoline prices by approximately 0.06 yuan per liter, following a projected rise of 70 yuan per ton [6][8]. - This could mark the first decrease in oil prices in over seven months, breaking a trend of nine consecutive price hikes since July 2017, which may positively influence consumer sentiment [6][8]. Price Data - Current gasoline prices across various regions in China show a range for 92, 95, and 98 octane fuels, with prices varying from 6.84 to 8.87 yuan per liter [4][5]. - Diesel prices also reflect regional variations, with 0号柴油 prices ranging from 6.37 to 7.61 yuan per liter [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that international oil prices may continue to face downward pressure, with expectations of a potential "double decline" in the next round of refined oil price adjustments [6][8]. - The market remains influenced more by speculative sentiment than by fundamental factors, indicating a need for careful monitoring of price movements and consumer behavior [6][8].

IG 市场分析师托尼・西卡莫尔表示："随着后续更多谈判的提上日程，市场对中东石油供应即刻中断的 担忧已大幅缓解。" 上周五，美伊双方在阿曼举行的磋商取得积极进展，此后两国承诺将继续推进谈判。此前市场担忧，若 谈判破裂，中东地区的冲突风险或将升级，而美国此前已在该地区增派了更多军事力量，此次谈判的积 极信号也缓解了这一顾虑。 全球约五分之一的石油贸易运输需经由阿曼与伊朗之间的霍尔木兹海峡。 因美国与伊朗承诺继续就伊朗核问题进行间接谈判，市场对中东地区冲突的担忧有所缓解，潜在的石油 供应中断顾虑消退，国际油价在周一下跌超 1%。 截至格林尼治标准时间 2 月 9 日 7 时 47 分，伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌 84 美分，跌幅 1.2%，报每 桶 67.21 美元；美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格下跌 82 美分，跌幅 1.3%，报每桶 62.73 美元。 受地区紧张局势缓和影响，两大原油期货指标上周均下跌超 2%，创下七周以来的首次回落。 不过，伊朗外长表态称，若遭美军袭击，伊朗将对美国在中东地区的军事基地展开反击，这也表明地区 冲突的潜在风险仍在酝酿。 辉立新星高级市场分析师普里扬卡・萨赫德瓦称："各方言辞立 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (2.2-2.6) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油现跌后升震荡运行。纽约交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶63.50美元，周跌3.41%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶 68.10美元，周跌2.48%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至474.2元/桶，周涨0.72%。周内前期，由于伊朗和美国仍存谈判可能，市场担忧情绪缓和 导致油价承压大幅下跌。据伊朗媒体报道，伊朗总统下令同美国启动核谈判，伊朗可能在未来几天同美国举行高规格谈判。但另一方面，市场 密切关注伊朗局势以及美国可能的军事干预，美国总统特朗普表示，派往中东的美国舰队规模大于派往委内瑞拉的舰队，并威胁 ...

石油ETF鹏华(159697)，场外联接(A：019827；C：019828；I：022861)。 截至2026年2月9日 11:00，国证石油天然气指数(399439)上涨0.56%，成分股和顺石油上涨7.28%，杰瑞 股份上涨7.17%，招商轮船上涨6.16%，中远海能上涨3.69%，洪田股份上涨3.00%。石油ETF鹏华 (159697)上涨0.67%，最新价报1.34元。 石油ETF鹏华紧密跟踪国证石油天然气指数，国证石油天然气指数反映沪深北交易所石油天然气产业相 关上市公司的证券价格变化情况。 消息面上，全球区域局势不断升温，当地时间6日，古巴通报即将采取的一系列紧急措施，旨在全力保 障社会基本服务运转。主要内容包括：燃料将优先用于保障民生基本服务及关键经济活动，非必要活动 予以推迟；积极恢复燃料供应，扩大本国原油产量，并加快绿色能源项目的建设与投入使用；实施燃料 配给与节能措施，行政工作集中安排在周一至周四进行；确保居民供水、粮食生产、医疗卫生、国防安 全、灾害预警和创汇产业等关键领域的燃料供应等。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 信达证券指出，截至2026 ...